Turkey's S-400 Missile Crisis: Four Possible Outcomes
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ISSUE BRIEF 06.28.19 Turkey’s S-400 Missile Crisis: Four Possible Outcomes Cem Birol, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Political Science, Rice University In 2017, Turkey—a NATO member since shipment of F-35 jets that had already been 1952—reached an agreement to purchase paid for by Turkey. More recently, the U.S. Russia’s S-400 missile interceptor also threatened to stop training Turkish pilots system. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the F-35 program. Thus far, Turkey has subsequently announced that Turkey would not backed down, and it is uncertain what take delivery of the system in October will happen next. 2019. These developments triggered a crisis With Turkey in a severe economic between Turkey and the U.S. that has yet to recession, and with an economy that be resolved, with each of the longtime allies depends on international investors, Erdogan threatening or antagonizing the other as the has little incentive to further alienate the U.S. putative delivery date approaches. After all, antagonizing the U.S. has serious NATO and the United States are costs for Turkey, as the crisis arising from concerned that if Turkey takes delivery Turkey’s 2016 arrest of American pastor and activates the S-400 system, Russia Andrew Brunson demonstrated:1 the value will have an opportunity to spy on NATO of the Turkish lira relative to the U.S. dollar technology, including a new generation and euro plummeted, inflation rose, many F-35 fighter jets. How likely is the risk of private Turkish businesses were obliged to NATO and the United escalation if Turkey receives and activates restructure their unmanageable debt, and the the S-400 system? Could Turkey—with the standard of living for average Turkish citizens States are concerned second largest army among NATO forces— in urban areas deteriorated. Ultimately, these that if Turkey takes risk suspension or removal from NATO? How problems partially contributed to the AKP’s delivery and activates will this crisis shape the future of the U.S.- failure to win the mayoral race in any of the S-400 system, Turkey relations? Turkey’s four largest cities in the March 2019 Some analysts assert that Erdogan is elections. In the sections that follow, I review Russia will have using the purchase of the S-400 system as four scenarios that could develop as the an opportunity leverage against the U.S. decision to delay the S-400 crisis continues. to spy on NATO sale of NATO-based Patriot missile interceptor technology, including systems to Turkey. The reason for this delay appears to be the United States’ eroding SCENARIO 1: S-400 PURCHASE AND a new generation trust in Turkey in light of its rapprochement RADAR ACTIVATION F-35 fighter jets. with Russia in recent years. In response to The worst-case scenario would be for Turkey’s agreement to purchase the Russian- Turkey to take delivery of the S-400 system, made S-400 system, the U.S. threatened activate it, and suffer dire consequences as Turkey with economic sanctions and a result. The S-400 Triumf system involves introduced the idea of Turkey’s removal from missiles (long-range in the case of Turkey), NATO. In addition, the United States halted a a mobile launcher, and a radar system. The RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // ISSUE BRIEF // 06.28.19 radar system can autonomously detect and Could Turkey withstand NATO’s absence indicate targets. This feature potentially and adequately develop its domestic defense gives Russia access to any Turkish military industry in the short run? The likely answer asset. Consequently, there is the risk that is no. While the Erdogan government has Russians can decipher NATO-based military adopted measures to develop the country’s technology in Turkey if the Turks activate defense industry—in the past four to five the S-400 system. Thus, the Pentagon is years, Turkey’s state-owned weapons reportedly concerned that once the S-400 manufacturer, ASELSAN, has developed and radar is activated, the Russians will be able tested more missiles and unmanned aerial to spy on NATO assets, especially F-35 jets’ vehicles (UAV)6 than ever before7—they stealth technology.2 heavily rely on military imports, from both In this scenario, NATO’s and the NATO and non-NATO countries. For example, Pentagon’s response could be threefold. one of Turkey’s major defense goals is to First, Turkey could be completely removed complete the construction of an aircraft from NATO’s joint F-35 manufacturing carrier by 2021.8 However, the carrier was program, through which it has paid $1 developed to accommodate a version of billion for 100 jets. Second, the U.S. could F-35 jets that would land on it. Without the impose severe sanctions on Turkey (under NATO-based F-35s, Turkey’s aircraft carrier the Countering America’s Adversaries program would face major challenges, Through Sanctions Act [CAATSA], which bars including prohibitively high economic costs. America’s allies from using Russian radar Overall, being expelled from NATO would technologies). Lastly, and more dramatically, lead to insurmountable financial burdens Turkey would suffer the U.S. could use its leverage with NATO to and a major cutback in Turkey’s foreign remove Turkey as a member. policy aspirations. In addition, this scenario considerably if its Foreign policy scholarship suggests would cause Turkey to lose the United partnership with NATO that Turkey would suffer considerably if its States’ and the Western world’s already were to end. The partnership with NATO were to end. The eroding trust. reason is that NATO reason is that NATO provides Turkey with major security benefits and deters potential provides Turkey with aggressors. Simply put, Turkey has access SCENARIO 2: S-400 PURCHASE AND major security benefits to nuclear weapons thanks to NATO. Absent RADAR ACTIVATION, BUT NATO TECH and deters potential NATO, nothing—not even S-400s—could REMAINS UNCOMPROMISED offer the level of security Turkey currently aggressors. What if the S-400 system does not integrate enjoys. To make up for the loss of security into the NATO infrastructure in Turkey? Some without NATO, Turkey would have to sacrifice military experts suggest this scenario as a non-military fiscal spending, which could possibility.9 In this scenario, Turkey may have jeopardize the welfare of many Turkish a lower risk of alienating NATO because the citizens3 and reduce the resources used to NATO equipment will remain secure from pursue its increasingly proactive foreign policy Russian encroachment. Nevertheless, Turkey agenda in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.4 will still lose the U.S.’s trust, since proceeding Certainly, NATO without Turkey is not with the purchase of the S-400 will be seen good news for NATO, but Turkey in this by Americans as an act of defiance. scenario would be the bigger loser. Turkey, If this scenario comes to pass, Turkey- an important NATO ally, borders one of the NATO relations will not worsen since the world’s most conflict-ridden regions—the latter’s technology will remain concealed Middle East. Some observers view recent from the Russians. After all, an alliance increased American engagement with Israel, with NATO does not restrict Turkey from Cyprus, and Greece as efforts to prepare purchasing Russian military equipment. In for the possible replacement of Turkish fact, Greece—another NATO member—has cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean possessed an S-300 system (the previous region.5 This may signal that Turkey’s version of the S-400) since the late 1990s strategic importance for NATO, and for the and activated it in 2015 during a joint military U.S. in particular, may be in decline. 2 THE STATUS QUO, EXTREMISM, AND REFORM: THE MANY FACES OF RELIGIOUS AUTHORITY IN TURKEY exercise with Israel. Israel tested its missiles U.S., foreign investors see it as a sign of risk, against the S-300 systems and neither the and typically prefer not to invest in Turkish U.S. nor NATO reacted negatively.10 markets. Hence Turkey, in principle, needs However, there is a key difference to maintain amicable relations with the U.S. between the S-300 and S-400 system. The because the latter can use its influence in latter features advanced radar technology the IMF to retaliate. that can integrate into a nation’s broader early warning system and is considered to pose a threat to new generation NATO SCENARIO 3: S-400 DELIVERY, BUT stealth aircrafts such as F-35s. Thus, the NO RADAR ACTIVATION technical problem is not necessarily that In this scenario, Turkey goes forward with Turkey is moving ahead with the purchase the purchase of the S-400 system but does of Russian military equipment or violating not activate it. The purchase agreement NATO rules. Rather, the major concern is the between Turkey and Russia remains unique radar features of the S-400 that can symbolically fulfilled. After all, the S-400 theoretically compromise NATO technology. system will not suddenly start hacking into If NATO technology remains intact, then NATO infrastructure once it crosses the NATO has no legitimate grounds to accuse or Turkish border. It needs to be installed and penalize Turkey. integrated into Turkey’s general radar and On the other hand, there is the early-warning systems. The risk for NATO inevitable fact that Turkey will alienate sets in once the system is activated. Without the United States in this scenario. If Turkey integration, there is no such risk. Hence, it continues with the purchase, it will still is up to Turkey to decide whether or when be seen as a partner that defies the U.S.