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Ipca Laboratories (IPCLAB)

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Ipca Laboratories (IPCLAB) Ipca Laboratories (IPCLAB) CMP: | 2040 Target: | 2290 (12%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD May 31, 2021 Upbeat guidance, execution remains key Q4 revenues remained subdued growing just 3.8% YoY to | 1115 crore. Strong YoY growth of 19.7% in export formulations to | 338 crore was partly Particulars offset by API sales decline of 5.5% YoY to | 260 crore. Domestic Particular Amount formulations remained flat at | 434 crore vs. | 431 crore in Q4FY20. EBITDA Market Capitalisation | 25873 crore margins improved 484 bps YoY to 20.5% due to better gross margins and Debt (FY21) | 267 crore lower other expenditure. EBITDA grew 35.8% YoY to | 229 crore. PAT grew Cash (FY21) | 365 crore 87.5% YoY to | 161 crore (I-direct estimate: | 204 crore). Delta vis-à-vis EV | 25775 crore EBITDA was due to higher other income, lower depreciation and tax rate. 52 week H/L (|) 2456/1467 Equity capital | 25.4 crore Update Result Export formulations main catalyst for growth Face value | 2 Price performance Growth in export formulations (29% of FY21 revenues) was on the back of growth in both international generics and international branded 2500 14000 formulations. The international anti-malarial institutional business has also 12000 2000 contributed substantially to overall exports growth. US traction will take 10000 longer than earlier estimated due to USFDA import alerts for the Ratlam 1500 8000 facility that is the only API source for Silvassa and Pithampur formulations 1000 6000 plants along with Silvassa and Pithampur (Indore) plants that are specifically 4000 500 earmarked for the US business, besides third party sales. However, 2000 0 0 sustained traction from branded and generics exports sales with a revival in EU is expected to mitigate the US void. We expect export formulations to Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 May-19 May-20 May-21 grow at ~8% CAGR in FY21-23E to | 1859 crore, driven by generic May-18 formulation exports and recovery in the tender and branded exports. Ipca Labs (N.H.S) NSE500 (R.H.S) Growth in ex-anti-malarials to counter antimalarial volatility Key risks to our call Domestic formulations comprise 37% of FY21 revenues. The domestic Continued impact on domestic performance has been volatile at times due to presence of anti-malarials in anti-malarial/ anti-bacterial/ cough the portfolio. However, with incremental growth in other therapies, & cold segments especially non-communicable diseases like pain management, cardio- Faster than expected resolution of diabetology, etc, the overall portfolio is poised for steady growth. We expect key plants by USFDA Indian formulations to grow at 14.4% FY21-23E CAGR to | 2592 crore. Research Equity Retail – Valuation & Outlook Q4 results were below I-direct estimates on all fronts with the company Research Analyst witnessing sequential sales decline across segments (excluding export branded generics). Quarterly performance gyrations notwithstanding, the Siddhant Khandekar [email protected] company remains a decent player with judicious mix of strong domestic franchise and a spread out exports model with healthy balance sheet. Mitesh Shah Though there are fluctuations in the institutional business, the management [email protected] Securities ICICI remains upbeat on prospects. Going ahead, with firm growth tempo in Sudarshan Agarwal domestic formulations, good prospects both for API exports, formulation [email protected] exports, we expect further improvement in financial parameters. Ipca will continue to remain a compelling bet on the back of well-rounded growth prospects. At the current price, we believe the stock has factored in most of the upsides. Subsequently, we change from BUY to HOLD rating and arrive at our TP of | 2290 (earlier | 2490) based on 25x FY23E EPS of | 91.6. Key Financial Summary (| crore) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E CAGR (FY21-23E) % Revenues 4648.7 5419.9 5907.3 6524.7 9.7 EBITDA 903.7 1544.3 1495.9 1699.1 4.9 EBITDA Margins (%) 19.4 28.5 25.3 26.0 Net Profit 603.4 1139.9 1101.7 1161.2 0.9 EPS (|) 47.6 89.9 86.9 91.6 PE (x) 42.9 22.7 23.5 22.3 EV to EBITDA (x) 28.7 16.4 16.6 14.1 RoNW (%) 16.6 24.2 19.1 16.8 RoCE (%) 17.6 27.1 21.9 21.6 Source: ICICI Direct Research; Company Result Update | Ipca Laboratories ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q4FY21 Q4FY21E Q4FY20 Q3FY21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments Sequential sharp decline amid decline in across key geographies Revenue 1,114.6 1,271.1 1,073.8 1,409.8 3.8 -20.9 and businesses Raw Material Expenses 338.6 444.9 364.6 515.4 -7.1 -34.3 Gross margins (%) 69.6 65.0 66.0 63.4 358 bps 618 bps Improved amid better product mix and prudent procurement Employee Expenses 257.6 260.6 242.2 245.1 6.4 5.1 Included forex loss of | 41.3 crore against profit of | 15.06 crore in Q4FY20. Decline also due to 1) | 13 crore of impairment for krebs 2) Other Expense 289.5 279.6 298.5 282.4 -3.0 2.5 higher repair amid maintenance cost by | 9 crore and 3) | 5-8 crore amid increased in freight cost Operating Profit (EBITDA) 228.8 286.0 168.5 366.9 35.8 -37.6 YoY improvement mainly due to lower marketing and travelling cost, EBITDA (%) 20.5 22.5 15.7 26.0 484 bps -550 bps which was partially offset by lower gross margins and removal of MEIS income of | 12 crore Interest 1.7 2.3 3.7 2.3 -53.7 -25.8 Depreciation 52.5 53.5 63.9 53.5 -17.9 -1.9 Other Income 19.9 15.9 13.7 15.4 45.1 29.5 PBT 194.5 246.1 114.6 326.5 69.8 -40.4 Tax 30.9 43.1 29.2 56.7 5.9 -45.5 Tax Rate (%) 15.9 17.5 25.5 17.4 -958 bps -148 bps Reported PAT 161.2 203.8 86.0 265.5 87.5 -39.3 YoY growth in-line with operational performance EPS (|) 12.7 16.1 6.8 20.9 87.5 -39.3 Key Metrics Sequential sharp decline amid lower sales in last 10 days of March Domestic formulations 433.6 474.1 431.0 523.2 0.6 -17.1 due to inventory destocking by client and lower MR productivity. HCQS revenues was | 20 crore against | 37 crore Export - Generic 160.8 190.9 166.0 215.1 -3.2 -25.3 Export - Institutional 76.2 91.3 39.7 138.6 91.9 -45.0 YoY growth mainly due to base effect Export - Branded 101.0 96.6 76.7 77.5 31.7 30.3 YoY growth mainly due to base effect API 259.9 324.6 275.1 352.1 -5.5 -26.2 Source: ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in Estimates FY22E FY23E Comments (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Revenue 5,925.5 5,907.3 -0.3 6,517.5 6,524.7 0.1 EBITDA 1,513.2 1,495.9 -1.1 1,706.6 1,699.1 -0.4 EBITDA Margin (%) 25.5 25.3 -21 bps 26.2 26.0 -14 bps Changed as per management guidance Changed mainly due to change in margins expectations, lower other PAT 1,217.8 1,101.7 -9.5 1,262.4 1,161.2 -8.0 income and higher depreciation amid change in capex assumption EPS (|) 96.0 86.9 -9.5 99.5 91.6 -8.0 Source: ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Change in Estimates Current Earlier FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E Domestic formulations 1,912.6 1,981.7 2,314.5 2,592.2 2,307.6 2,584.5 Export formulations 1,221.6 1,597.2 1,708.3 1,859.1 1,713.5 1,838.1 API 1,173.1 1,506.3 1,506.8 1,657.5 1,510.3 1,661.3 Source: ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Ipca Laboratories ICICI Direct Research Conference Call Highlights Geographical breakup- North America: | 127 crore; Australia-NZ: | 178 crore; Europe: | 419 crore; South Africa: | 80 crore and CIS: | 164 crore Domestic segment continued seeing impact in anti-malarial, anti- bacterial, cough-cold segments Domestic business was impacted in Q4FY21 due to (a) 4% impact amid high base of HCQS related opportunities (| 37 crore in Q4FY20 vs | 20 crore in Q4FY21) (b) last 10 days impacted in March likely due to deferment of targets to FY22 by MRs Pain & cardio growing; Pain - 9% up YoY; Cardio - up 6% YoY CNS (up 11%), Derma (up 23%), Ophthalmic (up 61%) and Nutraceuticals (up 41%) also growing positively Price trends While Sartan prices are down; in overall portfolio prices are up but no significant impact on Ipca due to medium term price contracts Formulations – except Paracetamol and a couple of drugs no significant price increase for Ipca Intermediates – One anti-malarial related molecule saw a significant price hike (a) Other intermediates (such as Metformin) saw a price hike of 15-18% Solvents – price increase of 18-30% in some solvents (a) Methanol – up 45%; Methylene chloride – up 23% Packaging materials (a) Aluminium foil – price up ~26%; Plastic resin – up 12- 30%; Paper – 5-18% up; and Glass also saw significant price increase April-May saw uptick in HCQS related opportunities in domestic space Cough & Cold, anti-malarial also saw growth revival in the first two months FY21 exceptional opportunities were at | 365 crore | 180 crore related to HCQS and chloroquine API | 185 crore related to HCQS and chloroquine formulations Backward integration up at 61% of formulations in FY21 vs 56% in FY20 Captive API business was at | 2195 crore in FY21 MRs are at ~ 4000.
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