Diversity and Disparities Diversity and Disparities America Enters a New Century John R. Logan, editor The Russell Sage Foundation The Russell Sage Foundation, one of the oldest of America’s general purpose foundations, was established in 1907 by Mrs. Margaret Olivia Sage for “the improvement of social and living conditions in the United States.” The Foundation seeks to fulfill this mandate by fostering the development and dissemination of knowledge about the country’s political, social, and economic problems. While the Foundation endeavors to assure the accuracy and objectivity of each book it publishes, the conclusions and interpretations in Russell Sage Foundation publications are those of the authors and not of the Foundation, its Trustees, or its staff. Publication by Russell Sage, therefore, does not imply Foundation endorsement. BOARD OF TRUSTEES Robert E. Denham, Chair Larry M. Bartels Sheldon Danziger Sara S. McLanahan Kenneth D. Brody Kathryn Edin Claude M. Steele Karen S. Cook Lawrence F. Katz Shelley E. Taylor W. Bowman Cutter III Nicholas Lemann Richard H. Thaler Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Diversity and disparities : America enters a new century / John R. Logan, editor. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-61044-846-8 (ebook) 1. Income distribution — United States — History — 21st century. 2. Housing — United States — History — 21st century. 3. Families — United States — History — 21st century. 4. Minorities — United States — History — 21st century. 5. United States — Economic conditions — 21st century. I. Logan, John R., 1946– HC110.I5D55 2014 339.2'20973—dc23 2014018103 Copyright © 2014 by Russell Sage Foundation. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of Amer- ica. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior writ- ten permission of the publisher. Reproduction by the United States Government in whole or in part is permitted for any purpose. The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials. ANSI Z39.48-1992. Text design by Suzanne Nichols RUSSELL SAGE FOUNDATION 112 East 64th Street, New York, New York 10065 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CONTENTS Tables and Figures vii About the Authors xix Chapter 1 Diversity and Inequality: Recent Shocks and Continuing Trends 1 John R. Logan Part I The Great Recession: The Great Divide 21 Chapter 2 A Very Uneven Road: U.S. Labor Markets in the Past Thirty Years 23 Harry J. Holzer and Marek Hlavac Chapter 3 The Middle Class: Losing Ground, Losing Wealth 60 Edward N. Wolff Chapter 4 Median Income and Income Inequality: From 2000 and Beyond 105 Richard V. Burkhauser and Jeff Larrimore Chapter 5 Residential Mobility in the United States and the Great Recession: A Shift to Local Moves 139 Michael A. Stoll Chapter 6 Cohort Trends in Housing and Household Formation Since 1990 181 Emily Rosenbaum Chapter 7 Residential Segregation by Income, 1970–2009 208 Kendra Bischoff and Sean F. Reardon Part II The Persistence of Change: Dealing with Diversity 235 Chapter 8 The Divergent Paths of American Families 237 Zhenchao Qian Chapter 9 Diversity in Old Age: The Elderly in Changing Economic and Family Contexts 270 Judith A. Seltzer and Jenjira J. Yahirun Chapter 10 U.S. High-Skill Immigration 306 John Bound and Sarah Turner Chapter 11 Unauthorized Mexican Migration and the Socioeconomic Integration of Mexican Americans 341 Frank D. Bean, James D. Bachmeier, Susan K. Brown, Jennifer Van Hook, and Mark A. Leach Chapter 12 Gender Disparities in Educational Attainment in the New Century: Trends, Causes, and Consequences 375 Thomas A. DiPrete and Claudia Buchmann vi Contents Chapter 13 Is Ethnoracial Residential Integration on the Rise? Evidence from Metropolitan and Micropolitan America Since 1980 415 Barrett A. Lee, John Iceland, and Chad R. Farrell Index 457 TABLES AND FIGURES Table 2.1 Mean Hourly Wages, Employment-Population Ratios, and Mean Annual Earnings, by Gender, Education, Race, and Region, 1979–2007 31 Table 2.2 Changes in Mean Hourly Wages, Employment-Population Ratios, and Mean Annual Earnings, by Gender and Education, 1979–1989, 1989–2000, and 2000–2007 32 Table 2.3 Changes in Hourly Wages Across the Wage Distribution, by Gender and Education, 1979–1989, 1989–2000, and 2000–2007 33 Table 2.4 Changes in Annual Earnings Across the Earnings Distribution, by Gender and Education, 1979–1989, 1989–2000, and 2000–2007 35 Table 2.5 Changes in Median Hourly Wages and Median Annual Earnings, by Age, Race, and Region, 1979–1989, 1989–2000, and 2000–2007 38 Table 2.6 Distribution of Employment, by Occupation, 1979, 1989, 2000, and 2007 40 Table 2.7 Distribution of Employment, by Industry, 1979, 1989, 2000, and 2007 41 Table 2.8 Unemployment Measures, by Gender, Education, Race, and Census Region, 2007 44 Table 2.9 Peak-to-Trough Change in Unemployment Measures, by Gender, Education, Demographic Group, and Census Region, 1979–1982, 1989–1992, 2000–2003, and 2007–2010 45 Table 2A.1 Mean Hourly Wages (Ordinary Least Squares) 51 Table 2A.2 Median Hourly Wages (Quantile Regression) 52 Table 2A.3 Mean Annual Earnings (Ordinary Least Squares) 53 Table 2A.4 Median Annual Earnings (Quantile Regression) 54 Table 3.1 Mean and Median Net Worth, Wealth, and Income and Annual Growth Rates, 1962–2010 66 Table 3.2 The Size Distribution of Wealth and Income, 1962–2010 70 Table 3.3 Mean Wealth Holdings and Income, by Wealth or Income Class, 1983–2010 (In Thousands of 2010 Dollars) 72 Table 3.4 Composition of Total Household Wealth, 1983–2010 (Percentage of Gross Assets) 73 Table 3.5 Composition of Household Wealth, by Wealth Class, 2010 (Percentage of Gross Assets) 76 Table 3.6 Composition of Household Wealth of the Middle Three Wealth Quintiles, 1983–2010 (Percentage of Gross Assets) 78 viii Tables and Figures Table 3.7 Share of Homeowners with Negative Home Equity and Delinquent on Their Mortgage, by Household Characteristics, 2007–2010 81 Table 3.8 The Effects of Leverage and Differential Leverage on the Rate of Return 84 Table 3.9 Average Annual Percentage Rates of Return, by Period and Wealth Class, 1983–2010 85 Table 3.10 Household Income and Wealth for Non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks, 1982–2010 87 Table 3.11 Household Income and Wealth for Non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics, 1982–2010 88 Table 3.12 Composition of Household Wealth, by Race and Ethnicity, 2007 (Percentage of Gross Assets) 90 Table 3.13 Age-Wealth Profiles and Homeownership Rates, by Age, 1983–2010 92 Table 3.14 Composition of Household Wealth, by Age Class, 2007 (Percentage of Gross Assets) 94 Table 3A.1 Average of Annual Nominal Rates of Return (percentage), by Asset Type and Period, 1983–2010 99 Table 3A.2 Sample Sizes by Household Characteristics and Year, 1983–2010 100 Table 4.1 Factors Accounting for Changes in Median Size-Adjusted Household Income During Each Business Cycle Since 1979 (Average Change per Year) 114 Table 4.2 Employment and Earnings (in 2010 Dollars) of Household Heads and Their Spouses, by Gender, During Each Business Cycle Since 1979 117 Table 4.3 Factors Accounting for Changes in Median Size-Adjusted Household Income During the First Three Years of the Last Four Economic Downturns 119 Table 4.4 Factors Accounting for Changes in the Gini Coefficient of Size-Adjusted Household Income During Each Business Cycle Since 1979 (Average Change per Year) 122 Table 4.5 Projection from Demographic Trends in Age and Race of Median Income and Income Inequality—Average Annual Changes from 2007 Through 2050 124 Table 4A.1 Racial and Ethnic Characteristics of the U.S. Population and Size-Adjusted Household Income (in 2010 Dollars) During Each Business Cycle Since 1979, by Race 128 Table 4A.2 Mean Size-Adjusted Sources of Income During Each Business Cycle Since 1979 (in 2010 Dollars) 129 Table 4A.3 Employment and Earnings of Household Heads and Their Spouses During the First Three Years of the Last Four Economic Downturns, by Gender (in 2010 Dollars) 130 Tables and Figures ix Table 4A.4 Mean Size-Adjusted Sources of Income During the First Three Years of the Last Four Economic Downturns (in 2010 Dollars) 131 Table 4A.5 U.S. Census Bureau Demographic Projections, by Age and Race, 2007–2050 131 Table 5.1 The Number of People Who Moved over the Past Year, by Type of Move, 1981–2010 142 Table 5.2 Mean Characteristics of Movers (by Type of Move) and Nonmovers During 2000–2010 149 Table 5.3 Difference-in-Difference Estimates of Key Great Recession Variables: Within-County Movers Versus Nonmovers and Before Versus During the Great Recession 152 Table 5.4 Characteristics of Those Who Moved Within Counties Before and During the Great Recession 153 Table 5.5 Means of Key Great Recession Ethnic-Racial Variables over the 2000s Decade 156 Table 5.6 Top and Bottom Twenty-Five Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Within– Metropolitan Area Move Rate, 2010 161 Table 5.7 Top and Bottom Twenty-Five Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Change in Within–Metropolitan Area Move Rate, 2008–2010 162 Table 5A.1 Interregional Migration Before and During the Great Recession 168 Table 5A.2 Difference-in-Difference Estimates by Race-Ethnicity: Within-County Movers Versus Nonmovers and Before Versus During the Great Recession 168 Table 5A.3 Characteristics of Those Who Moved Within Counties Before and During the Great Recession, by Race-Ethnicity