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Morning Call November 28, 2013 Pakistan Strategy Equities Smooth Transition (Political, Military, Judicial): Confidence Boosters

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Morning Call November 28, 2013 Pakistan Strategy Equities Smooth Transition (Political, Military, Judicial): Confidence Boosters Morning Call November 28, 2013 Pakistan Strategy Equities Smooth transition (Political, Military, Judicial): Confidence boosters Chief of Pakistan Army Timely transition of Chiefs (Army, Judicial) to boost investor confidence Name Tenure After a massively successful, and highly smooth, political transition in the history of Gen. Sir Frank Walter Aug'47 - Feb'48 Gen. Douglas David Feb'48 - Jan'51 Pakistan in May’13, the two top as well as the most influential positions of the Field Marshal Ayub Khan Jan'51 - Oct'58 country’s esteemed institutions i.e. Military (Pakistan Army) and Judiciary (the Gen. Muhammad Musa Oct'58 - Sep'66 Honorable Supreme Court of Pakistan), have been filled up with no further delays, Gen. Yahya Khan Sep'66 - Dec'71 Gen. Gul Hassan Dec'71 - Mar'72 as were initially feared. This series of smooth flow of democratic transitions should Gen. Tikka Khan Mar'72 - Mar'76 not only boost investor confidence in country’s overall leadership, but also help Gen. Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq Mar'76 - Aug'88 rebuild the war-torn image of the country, we believe. Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg Aug'88 - Aug'91 Gen. Asif Nawaz Janjua Aug'91 - Jan'93 Any impacts or changes expected on country’s political canvas ahead? Gen. Abdul Waheed Jan'93 - Jan'96 Though done at the last minute, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's move to appoint Gen. Jehangir Karamat Jan'96 - Oct'98 General Raheel Sharif is largely expected to support country’s democratic forces Gen. Pervez Musharraf Oct'98 - Nov'07 Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani Nov'07 - Nov'13 into politics like his predecessor, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who through his Gen. Raheel Sharif Nov'13 - Todate utmost patience has greatly changed the institution’s image, from a politics-intruder Source: Pakistan Army (3 coups in the past) to a pure defense-devoted institution. Thus, unlike in the past, Chief Justice of the SC of Pakistan Name Tenure there would be an end to military takeover as well as the army is also largely Jus. Sir Abdur Rashid Jun'49 - Jun'54 occupied battling militancy within the country. Thus, army’s influence should Jus. Muhammad Munir Jun'54 - May'60 Jus. Muhd. Shahabuddin May'60 - May60 gradually dilute, thereby letting democratic forces flourish in the country. Jus. A. R. Cornelius May'60 - Feb'68 About MGs and CJPs and Pakistan politics Jus. Dr. S. A Rahman Mar'68 - Jun'68 Combing through the country’s military as well as judicial chronology reveals that, Jus. Fazal Akbar Jun'68 - Nov'68 Jus. Hamoodur Rahman Nov'68 - Oct'75 in the military first, there have been 14 military generals who served since Jus. Muhammad Yaqub Ali Nov'75 - Sep'77 independence with the longest tenure served by Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq (Mar’76 - Jus. S. Anwarul Haq Sep'77 - Mar'81 Aug’88) followed by Pervez Musharraf (Oct’98-Nov’07). The country also went Jus. Mohammad Haleem Mar'81 - Dec'89 Jus. Muhammad Afzal Zullah Jan'90 - Apr'93 under three military coups since independence from the British Empire in 1947 Jus. Dr. Nasim Hasan Shah Apr'93 - Apr'94 (Ayub Khan 1958 – 1971, Zia-ul-Haq 1977 – 1988, Musharraf 1999 – 2008), Jus. Saad Saud Jan Apr'94 - Jun'94 alongside impositions of martial laws and state of emergencies. As for country’s Jus. Sajjad Ali Shah Jun'94 - Dec'97 Jus. Ajmal Mian Dec'97 - Jun'99 supreme judiciary, though its earlier history has not been very impressive, its Jus. Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui Jul'99 - Jan'00 reawakening took place after the 2007 expulsion of the Chief Justice, Justice Jus. Irshad Hasan Khan Jan'00 - Jan'02 Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry (restored post-2008 elections) by Pervaiz Musharraf Jus. Bashir Jehangiri Jan'02 - Jan'02 Jus. Sheikh Riaz Ahmad Feb'02 - Dec'03 while declaring the state of emergency in the country. The new Chief Justice of Jus. Nazim Hussain Siddiqui Dec'03 - Jun'05 Pakistan, Justice Tassaduq Hussain Jillani will take oath in Dec’13. Jus. Iftikhar Muhd. Chaudhry Jun'05 - Mar'07 Jus. Javaid Iqbal Mar'07 - Mar'07 Outlook and recommendation Jus. Rana Bhagwandas Mar'07 - Jul'07 We believe such smooth and timely transition is vital to institutional-building as well Jus. Iftikhar Muhd. Chaudhry Jul'07 - Nov'07 as strengthening of the most important pillars of the country, thereby creating Jus. Abdul Hameed Dogar Nov'07 - Mar'09 Jus. Iftikhar Muhd. Chaudhry Mar'09 - Nov'13 strong democratic footings for a better society. As for equities, despite all odds i.e. Jus. Tasadduq Hussain Jillani Dec'13 - power cuts, deteriorated L&O and inflows at historic lows, KSE100 has been on the go (109% since Jan’12, 89% in USD, 41% since Jan’13TD, 29% in USD), mainly Analyst Khurram Schehzad due to soft political transition and massive corporate earnings growth (50% last [email protected] 2yrs). Currently, market is trading at a forward PE of 7.1x with a dividend yield of +92-21-32460742 6.9% while our likeness resides with Textiles (NML, NCL), IPPs (HUBC, NPL), www.arifhabibltd.com Telecom (PTC), Fertilizer (ENGRO, FFC, FFBL), and OMCs (PSO). Disclaimer: The information contained herein is compiled from sources AHL believes to be reliable, but we do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to be an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. AHL and its officers or employees may or may not have a position in or with respect to the securities mentioned herein and they do not accept 1 any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication and its contents. AHL may, from time to time, have a consulting relationship with a company being reported upon. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice Morning Call November 28, 2013 Market Review All share KSE-100 Today’s News KSE - Closing 17,533.54 23,768.35 Ginners and growers are insisting the government to ban import of cotton and direct Points Change 35.80 (30.35) Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) to intervene to support the rapidly falling % Change 0.20% -0.13% prices of phutti (seed cotton) and cotton. Declining phutti and cotton prices have MTD Change 938.92 992.50 caused huge losses to growers and ginners and if the government does not move to YTD Change 5,569.30 6,863.02 safeguard their interests, growers will shift to other crops next year, Prem Chand Turnover (m) 98.51 74.45 Khayati, senior vice chairman of Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association (PCGA), told Source: KSE Dawn on telephone. He said that in worst situation the least government could do is Volume Leaders Volume(m) Close to give subsidy to growers. (Dawn) FCCL 10.56 13.12 PTC 10.52 29.40 Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi on TELE 8.61 6.00 Wednesday said the government is not going to completely suspend gas supply to LPCL 5.90 8.23 CNG and industrial sector in December. Talking to reporters after attending the BOP 5.73 10.50 meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum and Natural Resources, Major Gainers Change Close held here on Wednesday with Senator Muhammad Yousaf in the chair, the minister UPFL 437.85 9,195.00 stated that Pakistan and Iran are likely to reinitiate talks on Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas NESTLE 416.40 8,744.40 pipeline in December. (BR) WYETH 115.00 5,050.00 BATA 92.62 1,945.17 BHAT 23.15 486.20 Margin Trading System November 27, 2013 Major Losers Change Close Day Vol Day Value Wght Avg Op. Vol Op. Value % open SHEZ -24.55 538.75 (mn) (PKR mn) (mn) (PKR mn) COLG -15.50 1,480.00 FATIMA 2.04 48.48 11.2% PSO 0.92 233.81 13.5% PAKT -11.02 421.00 ENGRO 0.25 30.56 11.5% FATIMA 8.14 184.25 10.7% SFL -8.00 232.00 BOP 2.07 18.57 17.6% NML 2.11 180.59 10.5% ISIL -6.25 200.75 PSO 0.07 16.91 11.2% ENGRO 1.21 146.03 8.5% Source: KSE FCCL 0.80 8.99 12.2% DGKC 2.10 129.85 7.5% Settlement Data Volume % Settled FCCL 4.5 38.9% Total 6.14 165.09 12.1% Total 44.80 1,728.81 TELE 4.2 48.8% Source: NCCPL PTC 4.1 37.1% BOP 3.3 34.7% FATIMA 3.1 38.7% MSCI Index Last Day YTD FIPI (USDm) Net Buy/(Sell) * data of November 27, 2013 Pakistan 118.8 -0.3% 18.5% 27-Nov-13 1.28 Future Open Int Shares(m) Values(m) Frontier Mkt 580.6 0.8% 18.5% MTD 368.2 ENGRO-NOV 2.7 399.6 Emerging Mkt 1008.8 0.3% -4.4% FYTD -15.8 PSO-NOV 1.0 308.5 EM Asia 447.9 0.4% 0.1% CYTD 368.2 ENGRO-DEC 1.9 282.8 Source: MSCI Source: NCCPL NML-DEC 2.5 266.5 PSO-DEC 0.6 180.6 Total 62.3 5746.2 Board Meetings Period Date Time Location Source: KSE Exide Pakistan Ltd. 2Q 29-Nov 3:00 PM Karachi Fixed Income 27-Nov-13 6M KIBOR (%) 9.97% T-Bill 12M (%) 10.00% PIB 10Yrs (%) 13.05% Source: KSE Source:SBP Currency Rates 27-Nov-13 USD 108.32 EUR 147.35 GBP 176.50 Source: SBP Commodity Prices 27-Nov-13 Gold ($/oz) 1,237.97 WTI ($/bbl) 92.30 Source: Bloomberg 2 .
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