Isolated Figurehead. President Short of Allies As Political
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Isolated figurehead President short of allies as political battle resumes Taras Kuzio Business Ukraine kraine’s parliament returns this government by the presidential secretariat higher, but rather than unite the country’s week after the summer recess, but have continued. These attacks did not relent squabbling Orange forces, the crisis that has Uthroughout the August lull there following the Georgian crisis and in the face arisen as a result of Russia’s Georgian adven- was no ceasefire along the battle lines of of Russian aggression which could easily train ture has sharpened the war of words within Ukrainian politics. Although the July 11 vote its eye next on Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. the Orange coalition. of no confidence in the Yulia Tymoshenko With fears mounting that Ukraine could be President Yushchenko’s tough stance government failed, throughout the summer the next neighbour to feel the weight of a over the Georgian conflict has not improved recess the verbal assaults against the resurgent Russia, the stakes have never been his ratings and the once popular Orange : 26 www.businessukraine.com.ua POLITICS Isolated figurehead: President Yushchenko gives his Independence Day address as Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetskiy (in Ukrainian national costume) and Parliamentary speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk look on. Other political leaders stayed away from the patriotic celebration in a Isolated figurehead demonstration of the divides within the Orange coalition government : September 01-07, 2008 27 Revolution leader now finds himself scrambling ident’s parliamentary supporters with a core of the Orange coalition’s Our Ukraine-People’s for allies and increasingly isolated. Party of Regions deputies. In such a scenario Self Defence faction did not vote against the As the autumnal parliamentary season kicks Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych government in the recent no-confidence vote. off Ukrainian politics remains divided three would not therefore stand as a candidate in the United Centre held its inaugural congress in ways, with each grouping looking towards the 2010 elections. July, keeping close to Soviet tradition with much presidential elections in January 2010. The President Yushchenko’s staunch pro-NATO pomp and circumstance in a ceremony broad- Orange coalition remains in place for the time membership stance and his strong support for cast live on state television. As commentators being, at least on paper, but it remains unclear Georgia in the face of Russia’s neo-imperialism noted, even Viktor Medvedchuk when head of how committed the President remains to it. has surely now undermined such a deal, if one the presidential administration did not use his The Party of Regions, having lost the July vote, was indeed ever negotiated. If anything, Mr. position to organise a similar congress for the continues to insist that it will raise the issue of Yushchenko is repeating Leonid Kravchuk’s Social Democratic United Party he led. re-formatting the coalition in the autumn if, 1994 electoral ploy of relying on patrio- The lavish congress failed to hide the fact as they confidently expect, the Constitutional tism and criticism of Russia. This approach that United Centre’s appearance resembles Court rules in the party’s favour that the coali- was unpalatable even to the most pragmatic a stillbirth. Ahead of the big launch event the tion no longer exists following the withdrawal Party of Regions supporters and would not party was forced to indefinitely postpone a of two deputies. serve Mr. Yushchenko well - Mr. Kravchuk lost to planned convention that was set to merge Leonid Kuchma, who ran on a platform critical United Centre with the People’s Democratic All eyes turn towards of Mr. Kravchuk’s alleged nationalism in the Party (NDP), a failed party of power from the presidential elections second round of the 1994 elections. late 1990s. Perhaps the most confusing element of the Presidential supporters view PM Yulia United Centre was established in March current political free-for-all is the presidential Tymoshenko as Mr. Yushchenko’s main after a small group of deputies resigned from strategy towards ensuring Mr. Yushchenko’s opponent in the next elections and all of the Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defence but opted re-election for a second term. The prevailing presidential secretariat’s attacks are currently to remain within the Orange coalition. The wisdom has been that presidential secretariat directed against the Orange government. new party was administratively established head Viktor Baloha had negotiated a backroom No criticism emanates from the presidential through regional governors and headed up by deal with the pragmatists of the Party of Regions secretariat against the Party of Regions. This Mr. Yushchenko’s chief of staff Viktor Baloha. to support Mr. Yushchenko in exchange for presidential strategy is also not working as the Administrative pressure by governors upon promises of a grand coalition linking the Pres- President’s ratings continue to plummet, while state employees to sign up to United Centre is his accusations of treasonous behaviour on the said to be ongoing. Our Ukraine-People’s Self- part of Mrs. Tymoshenko have only served to Defence have complained that members of bring ridicule against the President rather than its regional branches are being poached by the Prime Minister. United Centre. What then is Team Yushchenko’s strategy? The NDP, the Democratic Party and the One option would be to compete with Mrs. Republican Christian Party fought the 2007 elec- Tymoshenko for the Orange vote by using a tions in the Ludmilla Supryn-Ukrainian Regional The only political force patriotic platform critical of Russia. This would Active bloc that obtained 0.34% of the vote and to have broken through likely be popular in western and central parts came in tenth place. All three marginal parties of the country and in such a scenario Mr. Yush- are seen as allies of United Centre although it Ukraine’s regional chenko would hope to repeat his 2004 victory remains unclear how they are to boost their divide has been the by winning in round two as the candidate of popularity and that of the President. Tymoshenko bloc, Ukrainian patriotism. BYUT. In the September However, the plan could equally well be to A medal for loyalist Kyiv mayor 2007 pre-term elections negotiate a deal with the Party of Regions in the United Centre is also allied with Kyiv Mayor BYUT became Ukraine’s hope of drawing on its administrative resources Leonid Chernovetsky. Mr. Yushchenko backed first national party by and party machine to win the eastern Ukrainian the mayor in the May 26 pre-term Kyiv elec- winning votes in eastern- vote. In round two, Mr. Yushchenko might tions and issued a medal to him on Ukraine’s southern Ukraine, tradi- believe he could win against Mrs. Tymoshenko independence anniversary. This step was tionally a region hostile by branding her as the candidate of instability. vigorously protested by the Tymoshenko bloc to Orange parties which accused the President of having turned Enter the new Party of Power round the Orange Revolution slogan “Bandits One of President Yushchenko’s strategies is to prison” with “Bandits to be given medals.” the creation of a new pro-presidential party. Kyiv city council secretary and mayor loyalist However, judging by the stuttering summer Oles Dovhyi remains the link between Mr. entrance of United Centre, Mr. Yushchenko’s Chernovetsky and United Centre and is slated new party of power, it is unlikely to be of much to become the head of its Kyiv branch. use in his cause. Despite constant criticism of the United Centre could have potentially gained government, United Centre supporters within some support if it had successfully attracted 28 www.businessukraine.com.ua the business wing of Our Ukraine-People’s Self or ethnic) that could be drawn upon by a presi- received only 5% in the 1998 elections and POLITICS Defence that has always been inclined towards dent seeking to inculcate support for a national won 17 seats in parliament. Another 71 depu- a grand coalition with the Party of Regions and party of power. ties were elected in single mandate districts is lukewarm towards Mrs. Tymoshenko. United In regionally diverse Ukraine it is impossible giving the NDP the second largest faction in Centre placed high hopes on attracting parlia- at this stage in the country’s nation-building parliament. mentary speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk as its leader, process to create a pan-national party of Following the replacement of Mr. Pusto- a young and respected business leader widely power. Following the 2002 elections the For voitenko by Mr. Yushchenko as prime minister seen as loyal to Mr. Yushchenko. However, Mr. a United Ukraine bloc quickly split into its five in 1999 the NDP faction began to disintegrate. Yatseniuk has repeatedly declined the offer. constituent parties in parliament. Under Mr. This reflected a common problem afflicting Other businessmen in Our Ukraine-People’s Kuchma Ukraine’s regional oligarchs and parties parties of power; rather than a lack of loyalty Self Defence remain loyal to Mr. Yushchenko fought each other as much as they fought the to the party its supporters provided temporary but do not want to participate in a political opposition. support in exchange for the rents (corruption) project promoted by presidential secretariat United Centre’s ideology is defined as “united that could be obtained through the party’s head Baloha, who has reportedly poor rela- centrism” which incorporates “patriotism, access to the levers of government. tions with both the majority pro-Tymoshenko truth and pragmatism.” This kind of amorphous A second party of power, For a United and minority pro-Yushchenko wings of OUPSD. ideological content has already been tested and Ukraine, was established for the 2002 elections The Self Defence wing of Our Ukraine-People’s failed in the myriad of centrist parties created consisting of five pro-Kuchma centrist parties.