west village bluewater outline planning application december 2012
retail impact assessment
Gravesham Borough Council 3mm Bleed application documents
1.0 Outline Application Form 2.0 Design and Access Statement 3.0 Development Specification and Framework 4.0 Planning Statement 5.0 Retail Impact Assessment 6.0 Economic Statement 7.0 Air Quality Assessment 8.0 Flood Risk Assessment 9.0 Ecological Assessment 10.0 Transport Assessment 11.0 Transport Assessment Appendices 12.0 Sustainability and Energy Strategy 13.0 Statement of Community Involvement 14.0 Utilities Statement 15.0 Preliminary Environmental Risk Assessment
Front Inside 211 x 301
Gravesham Borough Council
contents 1 Introduction 3 2 Site and Surrounding Area 5 2.1 Site Description and the Bluewater Concept 5 2.2 Relevant Planning History 5 3 Development Proposals 6 3.1 Introduction 6 3.2 The Proposals 6 4 Planning Policy Context 8 4.1 National Planning Policy 8 4.2 Local Planning Policy 9 4.3 Summary 13 5 Retail Context 14 5.1 Introduction 14 5.2 Scope of Assessment 14 5.3 Study Area 14 5.4 Role of Centres 15 5.5 Effect on Commitments in Context 16 5.6 Summary of Health Checks 17 6 Household Survey: Shopping Patterns 19 6.1 Introduction 19 6.2 Survey Structure 19 6.3 Patterns of Expenditure Flows 21 6.4 Bluewater 22 7 Assessment of Proposals 25 7.1 Effects of Bluewater in Context 25 7.2 Capacity Analysis 25 7.3 Effects on Trade/Turnover 27 7.4 Cumulative Effect of Proposals and Commitments 37 7.5 Effect on Investment within the Catchment 39 7.6 Effect on Town Centre Vitality and Viability 42 7.7 Impact on Local Consumer Choice 42 7.8 Summary 43 8 Conclusions 44
Gravesham Borough Council
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appendices appendix 1: Catchment Plan appendix 2: Centre Health Checks appendix 3: Retail Assessment scoping note and response appendix 4: Household Survey Zones Plan appendix 4a: Households Survey Postal Codes appendix 5: Quantitative Analysis appendix 6: Household Survey Questions
Gravesham Borough Council
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1 Introduction 1.1 This Retail Impact Assessment has been prepared by Quod in support of an outline planning application by Blueco Ltd., the owners of Bluewater (the ‘Applicants’) for the redevelopment of and an extension to the West Village at Bluewater. The Applicant proposes to redevelop and extend the existing West Village to improve and complement the range of existing shopping and catering facilities at Bluewater by a maximum net increase of circa 30,500sqm comparison retail floorspace (A1-A5) gross internal area (gross internal area). This outline planning application seeks planning permission for the following: “Redevelopment of the site through part demolition, alteration and refurbishment of existing buildings/structures and erection of new buildings/structures to provide retail and related uses (A1-A5), new basement servicing corridor, reconfiguration of existing car and coach parking areas, reconfiguration of existing lake, open space and public realm, alteration of existing pedestrian links within the site, amended vehicular link into existing transit centre infrastructure and associated facilities.” 1.2 This report has been provided to assist Dartford Borough Council in the determination of the planning application, and considers the retail justification for, and implications of, the proposed development. Its scope has been agreed with Dartford Borough Council. 1.3 In March 2012, the Government published the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which supersedes previous national planning guidance on retail matters. The NPPF established a presumption in favour of sustainable development as the golden thread running through both the plan making and decision taking processes. Local Planning Authorities are required to attach significant weight to the need to support economic growth through the planning system, whilst promoting competitive town centre environments. This submission is made in accordance with these principles. 1.4 Policy CS12 of the Dartford Core Strategy (2011) states that planning consent will be granted for development that supports the role of Bluewater as a ‘specialist comparison shopping centre’ and that proposals exceeding the guidance levels (up to 5,000sqm to 2016) will be subject to retail assessment carried out in consultation with neighbouring authorities and taking into account the likely impact of the scheme on neighbouring town centres and regional considerations. In accordance with paragraph 3.3.1 of the Dartford Core Strategy, the guidance levels reflect the element of local expenditure growth that can sustainably be accommodated at Bluewater. The Core Strategy recognises that proposals exceeding the guidance levels may be submitted which will need to be assessed through a retail assessment. 1.5 Paragraph 26 of the NPPF requires planning applications for retail development over 2,500m² (in the absence of locally established thresholds), not in an existing centre and not in accordance with an up to date development plan to be accompanied by an assessment addressing the impact of the proposals on existing, committed and planned public and private investment; town centre vitality and viability; and local consumer choice and trade. In this case, the proposals are in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan, but an Impact Assessment has been carried out, as required by local policy. 1.6 The application site is designated as a ‘specialist comparison shopping centre’ within the Dartford Core Strategy, forming an important part of a network of centres within the borough. Accordingly, a sequential assessment is not required under Paragraph 24 of the NPPF as the application is within an existing centre. Notwithstanding this, given the specific locational requirements of the proposals, the floorspace proposed addresses a particular need at Bluewater, which could not be met by providing the floorspace elsewhere. 1.7 Accordingly, the structure of this report is as follows: • SectionGravesham 2: details the site and surrounding Borough area; Council • Section 3: provides a description of the development, along with headline commentary on key elements of the scheme; • Section 4: summarises the relevant retail planning policies at a national, regional and local level, in order to provide a context for the determination of the application; • Section 5: sets out the retail context to the proposals;
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• Section 6: considers existing trading patterns in and around the catchment ; • Section 7: provides an analysis of the effect of the proposals on existing centres; and • Section 8: provides conclusions.
1.8 It is generally accepted that major shopping centres contain a small element of convenience floorspace that complements the comparison provision, and Bluewater is no exception to this. However, no further convenience floorspace is proposed in this application and this assessment therefore relates to comparison retail floorspace only. 1.9 Following analysis in the subsequent chapters, it is considered that the proposals do not result in any significant harm by way of impact on town centres, nor to committed and planned public and private investment across the study period. In addition, there are material gains arising out of the proposal both in terms of the local economy and improved consumer choice that will benefit Bluewater, the Borough of Dartford, and the wider catchment. 1.10 This Retail Impact Assessment should be read in conjunction with the Planning Statement and other application documentation submitted in support of the proposals.
Gravesham Borough Council
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2 Site and Surrounding Area 2.1 Site Description and the Bluewater Concept 2.1.1 Bluewater is located in Greenhithe, within the Borough of Dartford. It is situated approximately one mile east of the M25, between Dartford and Gravesend. The site is bounded to its south by the A296, the B255 to its east and the A226 to the north. The location of Bluewater within the catchment area of this assessment is shown at Appendix 1. 2.1.2 Bluewater is one of the UK’s largest retail and leisure complexes, containing over 330 shops and restaurants. The centre comprises a triangular circuit, with an anchor department store at each corner – John Lewis, Marks & Spencer and House of Fraser. Each is connected by three distinct shopping malls, namely The Guildhall, The Rose Gallery and Thames Walk. 2.1.3 In addition to the retail facilities, Bluewater provides leisure, entertainment and recreational facilities that are an integral component of the Bluewater experience. Three ‘leisure villages’ provide a break out from the principal retail environment. These include The Wintergarden, The West Village and The Water Circus. The latter includes the more recently developed ‘Glow’ and The Plaza complemented by casual dining, an events and exhibition venue. 2.1.4 The application proposals relate to the north-west area of the site, comprising the ‘West Village’, and surface level car parking facilities and one of Bluewater’s many lakes. The West Village contains several shops and restaurant premises at present. 2.1.5 Approximately 13,000 car parking spaces are provided at Bluewater and are distributed around the retail areas in seven individual car parking zones (four of which are decked). Access to the car parks is provided via a ring road, Bluewater Parkway, around the perimeter of the site. 2.2 Relevant Planning History 2.2.1 Bluewater was one of the first large scale development sites in the Thames Gateway and has had a significant role in bringing forward change through the creation of jobs, wealth and visitors. Outline planning permission was granted by the Secretary of State on 11 May 1990 (ref: DA/88/0336) for the “development of a regional centre with recreational and leisure facilities and associated access roads, including alterations to the existing highway network, and 10,000 car parking spaces”. The premises subsequently opened in March 1999. 2.2.2 The outline consent placed restrictions on the scale of retail and leisure floorspace and on the types of goods to be sold. This sought to control the impact of the development and to ensure that an appropriate mix and balance of uses was provided. In broad terms, the gross lettable retail floorspace of the retail centre permitted by the original outline consent was restricted to 118,450sqm, with a minimum of 11,613sqm devoted to recreation and leisure uses. The consent also restricted the level of floorspace to be used for the sale of food and convenience goods to 11,148sqm (gross). 2.2.3 In April 2007 Dartford Council approved the ‘Glow’ events and exhibition venue at The Water Circus (ref: 06/00139/FUL). This was seen as an important component in helping Bluewater evolve to retain its position within the retail and leisure hierarchy at that time. 2.2.4 More recently, planning permission was granted on 7 November 2012 (application reference 12/00882/FUL) for a two-storey rear extension to Units U027 and U028a within the Upper Rose Gallery. The proposals will result in 2,211sqm (GEA) of additional floorspace to accommodate a larger Topshop store within the centre, and respond to retailer requirements for larger units, which cannot currently be accommodated. Within the existing triangular footprint. 2.2.5 BluewaterGravesham has a substantial planning history Borough since it opened in 1999, Council mainly relating to consents for changes of use and extensions to the retail and catering offer to enable it to evolve and expand. The most relevant of these consents are listed in the Planning Statement.
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3 Development Proposals 3.1 Introduction 3.1.1. The Development Specification and Framework (DSF) submitted with the application sets out a detailed description and explanation of the constituent parts of the development for which permission is sought, including the parameters that will apply to applications for reserved matters subsequent to the outline permission which is being applied for now. Should planning permission be granted the terms of the DSF would be applied to the planning permission through the associated planning conditions. 3.1.2 The Planning Application is submitted in outline with matters of appearance, landscaping, layout, scale and access (save for vehicular external access to/from the site, which will remain as existing) reserved for approval. Such approval would need to be consistent with the parameters set out in the Parameters Plans, DSF and Section 4.1 of the Design and Access Statement that accompany the submission. An outline planning application has been submitted to provide the necessary flexibility for the detailed design of the scheme to be determined at a later date. 3.2 The Proposals 3.2.1 The application is for a new retail and catering area at the West Village, Bluewater which would comprise the following key elements: • Demolition of existing West Village retail and catering area; • Erection of new buildings/structures to provide retail and related uses (A1-A5); • Alteration and refurbishment of existing retail units where the extension meets the existing Guildhall; • A basement servicing corridor; • Reconfiguration of existing car parking area to the west of the West Village; • Reconfiguration of existing coach park in the West Village car park to form car parking; • Reconfiguration of existing car parking area to east of transport interchange to form coach parking; • Reconfiguration of existing lake, open space and public realm to west of West Village; • Alteration of existing pedestrian links; • New vehicular link to east of transit centre to serve relocated coach park; and • Infrastructure and other associated facilities.
3.2.2 The existing, retained and proposed retail floorspace is set out in Table 1 below. The minimum scale threshold represents the minimum scale parameters for height, length and width. The maximum scale threshold represents the maximum scale parameters for height, length and width. For the purposes of this Retail Impact Assessment, and to ensure that the proposals are assessed as robustly as possible, the maximum parameters of net additional comparison retail floorspace have been assessed.
Gravesham Borough Council
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Existing West Village (Sq m) Proposed Floorspace (Sq m)
Use Existing Demolished Retained Scale New Total Net (Use WV WV WV Threshold floorspace Proposed Additional Class) floorspace floorspace floorspace = New floorspace + Retained a b c d e f g h =b-c = f+d = (g-b) or (f-c)
Retail 7,059 4,819 2,240 Maximum 35,319 37,559 30,500 and related Minimum 21,319 23,559 16,500 uses (A1- A5) *
Table 1 Proposed Floorspace – Retail and Related Uses * Excludes malls and back of house and basement servicing corridor Notes 1 All figures are gross internal areas; 2 Floorspace figures exclude roof top plant; 3 Back of house facilities include elements such as shared cores and corridors, toilets and baby changing facilities; 4 Additionally, public malls will be covered and planning permission is sought for such works (see planning statement for details); 5 The above figures do not include any public realm and amenity space or surface level car parking. 6 Retained floorspace only relates to retained floorspace within the red line site boundary and does not relate to the remainder of Bluewater outside of the red line
3.2.3 A full description of the application proposals is provided within the DSF and Design and Access Statement that accompany the application.
Gravesham Borough Council
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4 Planning Policy Context 4.1 This section examines the effect of the relevant retail planning policy. It deals with retail policy at the national and local levels, including established and emerging planning policy. Planning policies generally are considered in the Planning Statement submitted with this application. 4.2 Section 38(6) of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act provides that where regard is to be had to the Development Plan in determining a planning application, then such determination shall be made in accordance with the Plan unless material considerations indicate otherwise. There is, therefore, an inherent presumption in favour of the statutory Development Plan. For the purposes of Section 38(6) of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004, the statutory Development Plan for the application site comprises the Dartford Borough Council Core Strategy (adopted September 2011), Saved policies of the Dartford Borough Council Local Plan (1995) (saved September 2011) and the South East Plan (May 2009). 4.3 The South East Plan is part of the Statutory Development Plan, although the Government has passed the Localism Act 2011 which contains the power to abolish it. Although the Government has confirmed its intention to do so, this has not yet been done. In a letter to Chief Planning Officers (dated November 2010) the Government confirmed its commitment to abolishing the regional tier of policy and that its intention to do so through the Localism Bill was an important material consideration in planning decisions. Accordingly, account must be taken of the Government’s stated intention when determining what weight to attach to the policies in the RSS. 4.1 National Planning Policy
National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) 4.1.1 On 27 March 2012, the Coalition Government published the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). This sets out the Government’s planning policies for England, and how these are expected to be applied. Annex 3 confirms that previous national planning guidance, including that relevant to retail and town centre development in PPS1 and PPS4, has now been entirely superseded by the NPPF. Notwithstanding this, the technical content of the Practice Guidance on Need, Impact and the
Sequential Approach1 that previously accompanied PPS4 remains of some potential relevance and has, where appropriate, informed this Retail Impact Assessment in the context of the NPPF. 4.1.2 At the heart of the NPPF is a presumption in favour of sustainable development, which it is explained should be seen as a ‘golden thread’ running through both the plan-making and decision-taking processes (para. 14). With regard to decision making, paragraph 14 states that LPAs should approve development proposals that accord with the development plan without delay, and, where the development plan is absent, silent or relevant policies are out-of-date, grant permission unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits when assessed against the NPPF taken as a whole. 4.1.3 Paragraph 17 sets out twelve core principles for the planning process, and amongst other things advises that planning should: • Be a creative exercise in finding ways to enhance and improve places; • Proactively drive and support sustainable economic development, making every effort objectively to identify and then meet housing, business and other development needs of an area; • Promote the vitality of urban areas, and encourage the reuse of previously developed land. Gravesham Borough Council
1 ‘Practice Guidance on Need, Impact and the Sequential Approach, Department for Communities and Local Government, December 2009’
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4.1.4 The NPPF makes it clear that the Government is committed to ensuring that the planning system does everything it can to support sustainable economic growth. Paragraph 19 states that “planning should operate to encourage and not act as an impediment to sustainable growth. Therefore significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth through the planning system”. 4.1.5 Paragraph 23 makes it clear that it is for local planning authorities to define a network and hierarchy of centres that is resilient to future economic changes. Paragraph 23 also states that it is important that the needs for retail development are met in full and are not compromised by limited site availability. 4.1.6 Paragraph 24 requires the sequential test to be demonstrated only for applications for main town centre uses which are not in an existing centre, or in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan. As the application proposals are in accordance with the Local Plan, a sequential test has not been carried out. Paragraph 26 requires that applications for retail development outside town centres, which are not in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan, be accompanied by an impact assessment. In this case, the proposals are in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan, but an impact assessment has been carried out, as required by local policy, and accompanies the application. 4.2 Local Planning Policy
Core Strategy (adopted September 2011) 4.2.1 Dartford Borough Council is currently in the process of developing its Local Development Framework (LDF). As part of this, the Council adopted its Core Strategy in September 2011 which outlines the approach to managing growth and development in the Borough. Together with saved policies in the Local Plan, the Core Strategy forms part of the statutory development plan. 4.2.2 The distinct role of Bluewater from other centres in Dartford, and the need for it to maintain its position in the retail hierarchy, is recognised in paragraph 3.30 which states: “Bluewater has an established role as a high quality regional-level comparison shopping centre. It is likely to experience considerable competitive pressures from new and expanding regional shopping centres over the Plan period. The continuing need to attract private investment, particularly to the Ebbsfleet Valley, requires that Bluewater maintains its position relative to other regional centres, helping to raise the profile of the area.” (our emphasis) 4.2.3 Paragraph 3.3.1 also acknowledges the potential consequences of Bluewater being prevented from developing and potential competition with neighbouring town centres and states: “Whilst any growth at Bluewater has the potential to impact on neighbouring town centres, the Dartford Retail Study advises that a proportion of local expenditure growth can sustainably be addressed through additional floorspace at Bluewater. If Bluewater is prevented from developing and improving its offer to remain competitive, this is likely to result in the centre losing out to its regional level competitors with the consequence that local residents travel further to access regional level facilities and/or Bluewater competes more directly with the quality of offer in neighbouring town centres, reducing their local market share.” (our emphasis) 4.2.4 Paragraph 3.33 recognises the wide catchment area of Bluewater and its specialist role and explains the reasoning behind the identification of different roles for centres within the Borough. It states: “The strategy proposed for each of these existing and proposed shopping centres is based on the need to develop complementary but interrelated roles at the Borough level. There is a need to differentiate their range of services, so that they cater for different markets and competition between them is minimised. Whilst all the centres will be used by local residents, Ebbsfleet and Bluewater, in particular, will have a far wider catchment area, in Ebbsfleet’s case, in serving rail travellers and those working in the area. The development of a specialist role for these centres Graveshamwill assist in protecting the role of designatedBorough town centres both Council within and outside Dartford Borough.” (our emphasis).” 4.2.5 The Core Strategy therefore specifically identifies Bluewater as part of a shopping centre hierarchy, where development which supports Bluewater’s specialist comparison role should be encouraged, in order to ensure that that Bluewater continues to maintain an offer which is different to that provided by nearby town centres.
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4.2.6 In this context, Dartford Council has developed a retail policy, CS12, which defines a network of shopping centres that perform different and complementary roles. Policy CS12 (Network of Shopping Centres) states, inter alia: “1. A network of complementary shopping centres will be developed and supported, comprising: a) Dartford Town Centre; b) Bluewater c) Ebbsfleet/Eastern Quarry; d) Longfield
2. These will act as the main foci for shopping and leisure activity and be based on the roles for each centre identified in Table 3 below. 3. The Council will work with developers and grant planning consent for development that supports these respective roles. Table 4 will act as a guide to the appropriate amount of retail floorspace at each of the centres, also taking into account the factors identified below. … Bluewater 5. The assessment of the proposals will take into account: a) The ability of the scheme to attract more shoppers from the immediate catchment, thereby supporting sustainable travel patterns; b) The ability of a scheme to maintain and support Bluewater’s role as a specialist regional comparison shopping centre and provide an offer which is distinct from that of nearby town centres; c) The potential of a scheme to provide impetus for early delivery in the Ebbsfleet Valley and to support the success of Ebbsfleet; d) Proposals exceeding the guidance levels will be subject to a retail assessment carried out in consultation with neighbouring authorities and taking into account the likely impact of the scheme on neighbouring town centres and regional considerations.
6. Proposals will also need to ensure that: a) Impact on the highway network is minimised through a range of measures, including improved access by public transport, walking and cycling; b) The design integrity of the centre is maintained; c) The parkland setting is maintained and enhanced as a recreational and biodiversity resource and as flood risk mitigation; d) Employment and training strategies target local people.” (our emphasis) 4.2.7 Table 3 of the Core Strategy (extract provided below) identifies Bluewater as a “specialist regional comparison shopping centre” and recognises that “Bluewater will need to evolve to maintain its competitive position as a regional level centre”.
Centre Function Services Main Customer Draw Implications for change GraveshamProvided Borough Council
Bluewater Specialist Specialist Regional level Bluewater will need to regional comparison catchment; UK and evolve to maintain its comparison shopping; international tourists competitive position as shopping top-up linked to Ebbsfleet a regional level centre convenience
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centre shopping; station leisure; hotel
Extract from Table 3 of Core Strategy 4.2.8 Table 4 of the Core Strategy provides guideline shopping floorspace provision up to 2026, based on local expenditure growth alone. This identifies approximately 5,000sqm of larger retail units for Bluewater which reinforce its specialist role for comparison goods to be provided up to 2016. In accordance with paragraph 3.31 of the Core Strategy, this guide reflects the element of local expenditure growth that can sustainably be accommodated at Bluewater. In addition, the Core Strategy recognises that proposals exceeding the guidance levels may be submitted which will need to be assessed through a retail assessment.
Dartford Borough Council Local Plan (1995) saved policies (September 2011) 4.2.9 Parts of the Local Plan, adopted in April 1995, have been superseded following the adoption of the Core Strategy. However, as part of the transition to the Local Development Framework (LDF), some policies within the Local Plan remain relevant and have been saved beyond September 2011. Together with the Core Strategy, these policies form the statutory development plan for assessing the application. 4.2.10 The majority of retail planning policies saved within the Local Plan have been superseded by subsequent documents. Notwithstanding this, paragraph 5.2.1 outlines the Council’s objectives in relation to retailing, stating inter alia: • To encourage the continued development of a wide range of shopping facilities in the Borough; • To foster a pattern of shopping facilities that meets the need of, and is accessible to, the whole community; and • To secure the implementation of the Bluewater proposals (this relates to the development of the original Bluewater shopping centre).
Dartford Retail and Commercial Leisure Study (July 2010) 4.2.11 In July 2010, Dartford Borough Council published their Retail and Commercial Study, prepared by GVA Grimley, to advise on the need and capacity for new retail development in the Borough to 2026 and to provide advice on the appropriate role and function of existing and proposed centres. This study predates the publication of the NPPF, and provides an update to the evidence base used to inform the Council’s Core Strategy. It acknowledges that Bluewater operates at a regional scale, and that, consistent with other policy documents, it is envisaged that Ebbsfleet will evolve into a centre in the future as a result of planned development. 4.2.12 Table 4.1 states that Bluewater has a trade draw of £256.6 million from the study area of the Retail Study, which it states accounts for a market share of 24%. The study estimates that approximately 75% of Bluewater’s trade comes from outside this catchment, with the total turnover of Bluewater predicted at c. £1,026 million (para. 4.4). 4.2.13 The Retail Study models two scenarios for future capacity at Bluewater. The first assumes constant market shares and excludes commitments, whilst the second assumes constant market shares and includes commitments. 4.2.14 Table 2 below summarises the capacity for comparison goods in each scenario:
Scenario 2016 Capacity 2021 Capacity 2026 Capacity
1 Gravesham4,873m2 Borough16,714m2 Council29,959m2
2 4,153m2 15,511m2 26,245m2
Table 2: Summary of Comparison Floorspace Capacity. Source DRCLS, 2010
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4.2.15 The purpose of the Retail Study is to provide an evidence base on the role and function of Bluewater (and other centres) in the context of the local hierarchy (paragraph 1.3). 4.2.16 Paragraph 2.30 of the Retail Study refers to the previous Preferred Options draft of the Core Strategy and states: “Bluewater has a regional catchment area and …both Bluewater and Ebbsfleet compete with other facilities at a regional, national and international level. As such, it is noted that these centres will continuously need to reposition themselves to respond to market expectations. The Council supports changes to these centres providing that it can be demonstrated that additional retail and leisure development will not impact on spending and investment in lower order centres, and that travel impacts can be managed.” (our emphasis) 4.2.17 The local nature of the Retail Study is highlighted in paragraph 4.4 which states: “It is evident that Bluewater is the most dominant centre in terms of comparison goods trade drawing circa £256.6m of comparison goods expenditure (25%) from within the survey area, although we estimate that its total turnover is likely to be significantly higher given its role as a regional shopping centre. We estimate that the survey area only accounts for 25% of Bluewater’s total turnover.” 4.2.18 The capacity identified in Table 2 above is therefore purely from the Dartford retail study catchment area and the Retail Study acknowledges that Bluewater draws only about 25% from this catchment.
Dartford Borough Council Retail Background Paper (February 2011) 4.2.19 The DBC Retail Background Paper sets out the Council’s rationale for the evolution of existing and proposed centres in the Borough. It does not provide new quantitative analysis, but further presents the rationale adopted in the Retail Study above. It does however provide some useful clarification on the role of Bluewater and the background to the figures set out above. 4.2.20 Paragraphs 4.9 to 4.12 state: “Nevertheless, the Study points out that the centre is now ten years old and it is important that it continues to evolve to meet changing retailer demands and remains competitive in light of competition from Central London, Lakeside and Stratford City. It also considers that it is vital that Bluewater continues to perform at the highest level. This will include on-going investment, by addressing the constraint imposed by the shortage of medium sized units, as well as enhancing the quality of the retail floorspace and expanding the eating and drinking offer. The Study identified two possible consequences if there is no development or change at Bluewater. Firstly, the ability to continue the present differentiation between the centre and neighbouring centres. If its position at the top of the retail hierarchy would be eroded the centre would then compete more directly with lower order centres such as Dartford and Gravesend. Secondly, Bluewater will lose market share to competing higher order regional centres, such as Lakeside and Stratford City, creating unsustainable travel patterns and reducing regeneration benefits of the centre for the Borough.
Gravesham Borough Council
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The South East Plan provided for future expansion at Bluewater to be considered through a review of the Regional Spatial Strategy. In accord with this, discussions had begun between the Regional Body, Dartford Borough Council and Bluewater. With the demise of the South East Plan, a mechanism to consider regional level impacts will need to be identified. This will take some time. In the meantime, there is an urgent need for Bluewater to address the immediate constraint of medium-sized units and respond to competitive pressures from Stratford City, which is due to commence trading later this year, and additional retail floorspace at Lakeside. The Study considered whether and to what extent Bluewater’s immediate requirements could be addressed on the basis of local expenditure, which does not involve regional level considerations, nor is drawing on expenditure from outside Dartford’s retail catchment area. … As such, the Study does not address future floorspace capacity arising at Bluewater at the regional level as this was intended to be considered through a review of the RSS.” (our emphasis) 4.2.21 As set out in the Planning Statement, the future of the centre, therefore, is more appropriately to be guided by the policies in the Core Strategy. This retail assessment therefore considers the capacity arising at a regional level, from across Bluewater’s catchment area, rather than purely from within Dartford’s retail catchment. 4.3 Summary 4.3.1 The NPPF establishes a presumption in favour of sustainable development. This permits edge and out- of-centre development where town centre sites cannot meet the retail needs in full to enable economic growth and investment. It also allows the development to proceed where the benefits of that development are significant enough to outweigh the impacts. 4.3.2 Current local planning policy acknowledges Bluewater’s specialist role as a centre for comparison goods shopping, whilst noting that it faces increasing competition from new and expanding regional- level centres. With an expected large population increase, an additional demand for shopping and leisure facilities is expected to occur within the Borough. 4.3.3 Dartford Borough Council’s Retail and Commercial Leisure Study (July 2010), although not specifically addressing future floorspace capacity at Bluewater, does indicate that there is capacity for future comparison floorspace at the centre. Quod’s research and evidence underpinning this Retail Impact Assessment offers a more fine-grain study of a wider and more comprehensive catchment, and considers that the Council’s predicted capacity projections underestimate retail capacity at Bluewater.
Gravesham Borough Council
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5 Retail Context 5.1 Introduction 5.1.1 This section describes the baseline position for retailing within the Bluewater catchment area. A plan of the catchment area showing the centres within and surrounding it is provided at Appendix 1. 5.1.2 Health checks have been carried out of Dartford, Gravesend, Chatham and Bexleyheath centres, in addition to Bluewater, to confirm their current condition and role in the retail hierarchy and these are included at Appendix 2. It was agreed with Dartford Borough Council that these centres were the appropriate centres for which to provide health checks. 5.1.3 Following best practice guidance, the health checks have been undertaken in accordance with the indicators contained in Annex D of PPS4 (now superseded by the NPPF) where these indicators are considered to be relevant for the assessment, and where adequate information is available. 5.1.4 The general pattern of comparison retail provision in the catchment and surrounding area has also been considered. The analysis has been informed by Venuescore (2011), which is an annual survey that ranks the UK’s top 2,000 retail venues and provides a straightforward tool for understanding some of the key differences between shopping venues, including the scale of offer, market positioning and fashionability. 5.2 Scope of Assessment 5.2.1 The scope of this assessment was agreed with Dartford Borough Council. The agreed scoping note is provided at Appendix 3. 5.2.2 Following guidance in policy CS12, the scoping note was also sent to the neighbouring authorities and their comments were invited and incorporated into the methodology, where possible. 5.2.3 Responses on the scope of the assessment were received from Gravesham, Bexley and Sevenoaks Councils. These responses principally requested further information on the proposals and their impact on centres within the respective borough boundaries. Bexley requested that Bexleyheath was included within the assessment and this has been done. The response also questioned the evidence base for the catchment area and further justification for this is provided below. Sevenoaks requested that Swanley was included in the assessment and this has also been done. 5.2.4 Gravesham queried the scope in greater detail and questioned the need for a household survey and the sequential assessment. A letter of response was provided to deal with the principal issues raised and a household survey was carried out in response to their concern about the evidence base for the assessment. A copy of the response dealing with Gravesham’s concerns is also included at Appendix 3. 5.3 Study Area 5.3.1 A plan identifying the extent of the study area for the application is contained at Appendix 1. This has been generated using Experian Ltd research and survey data collected in August 2011 and information produced by CACI, which was then refined to show where 80% of the closest respondents travelled from. The catchment was then further refined using professional judgement to account for the location of comparable and competing regional and metropolitan centres and the expected size and nature of the proposals. 5.3.2 The Experian research included interviews with 833 Bluewater guests at key points in the shopping centre, establishingGravesham that 80% of respondents Borough lived within 43 minutes ofCouncil Bluewater. The catchment refinement eliminated any obvious gaps, and provided a robust study area upon which the analysis could be based. The study area has been agreed with Dartford Borough Council. 5.3.3 The study area represents the principal area from which the extension to Bluewater would expect to draw the majority of its trade. There are a large number of centres located within it, demonstrating the large area over which the impact of Bluewater is distributed.
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5.3.4 The study areas includes the regional/metropolitan centres of Bluewater, Lakeside, Bromley, Croydon and Tunbridge Wells. More locally, the catchment includes the town centres of Dartford, Gravesend, Bexleyheath and Chatham. 5.4 Role of Centres 5.4.1 Bluewater’s catchment includes a range of centres offering a variety of comparison and convenience shopping. Centres operating at a similar level in the retail hierarchy perform a different role depending on their characteristics, size, nature and position relative to their catchment population and other centres. 5.4.2 This is most usefully demonstrated by the Venuescore (2011) analysis which ranks those centres nearest to Bluewater as follows:
Centre Fashion Market Position Fashion Position Age Position Orientation Classification Classification Classification Index (Average = 100)
Bluewater 151 Upscale Fashion Forward Young
Dartford 60 Lower Middle Mainstream Mid
Gravesend 101 Down Mainstream Mid
Chatham 91 Lower Middle Mainstream Mid
Bexleyheath 98 Middle Mainstream Mid
Table 3: Comparison of Centres Source. Venuescore (2011) 5.4.3 It is also useful to understand the role of regional centres further afield within and outside of Bluewater’s catchment.
Centre Fashion Market Position Fashion Position Age Position Orientation Classification Classification Classification Index (Average = 100)
Westfield 183 Upscale Fashion Forward Young London
Westfield, 172 Upscale Fashion Forward Young Stratford City
London Regent 159 Upscale Mainstream Mid St
London Oxford 164 Upper Middle Fashion Forward Young St LakesideGravesham 158 BoroughUpper Middle Fashion Council Forward Young Bromley 131 Upper Middle Mainstream Mid
Tunbridge Wells 129 Upscale Traditional Old
Table 4: Comparison of Regional Centres. Source: Venuescore (2011)
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5.4.4 Bluewater is therefore serving a very different role to the centres closest to it. The centres which it is most comparable with in terms of offer are Westfield, London and Westfield, Stratford City; Lakeside and the West End. 5.4.5 The specialist role of Bluewater, in comparison Dartford, Gravesend and Chatham is summarised in the table below.
Centre Local Authority Type of Centre Role of Centre
Bluewater Dartford Regional centre (Dartford Specialist comparison CS) (Dartford CS)
Dartford Dartford Secondary regional Weekly convenience and centre (Dartford CS) comparison (Dartford CS)
Gravesend Gravesham Major town centre (South Weekly convenience and East Plan) comparison (health check)
Chatham Medway Major town centre (South Weekly convenience and East Plan) comparison (health check)
Table 5: Role of Centres
5.4.6 The specialist role of Bluewater in the retail hierarchy is a fundamental characteristic of the shopping patterns in its catchment area and the way in which the existing centres complement each other. Customers either choose to visit Bluewater for comparison shopping or, if the offer does not meet their requirements, they choose to travel further afield to other competing regional shopping destinations. Similar choices are made by retailers when determining where to open a store. This is recognised in the Core Strategy and its evidence base, as outlined above. 5.4.7 This specialist role, and the way that shoppers and retailers make choices, is central to an understanding of the likely effect of the proposals on centres in Bluewater’s catchment. 5.5 Effect on Commitments in Context
5.5.1 The most significant retail commitments within the study area of relevance to the assessment of the application proposals are described in Appendix 2 of this report. Section 6 of this report considers the effect of the extension on commitments and investment in town centres in Bluewater’s catchment; however it is useful to first put these in context. 5.5.2 Dartford, Gravesend and Chatham town centres are subject to major regeneration schemes, which are intended to complement and maintain their position in the retail hierarchy. 5.5.3 The Lowfield Street regeneration proposals, Dartford, were recently consented (application reference 11/00747/FUL) and around 40 retail units have been vacated along Lowfield Street in preparation for redevelopment. It is understood that the remainder of the land required for redevelopment will be subject to a CPO Inquiry, which is anticipated to commence shortly. The planning application includes A1, A2 andGravesham A3 uses and 231 residential units, Borough business uses, community Council facilities and health uses and is principally focussed on a 6,612sqm Tesco foodstore, with circa 4,325sqm of comparison retail floorspace.
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5.5.4 The Heritage Quarter, Gravesend, comprises approximately 5.8 hectares that is targeted for investment in the town centre and includes an extension to the St George’s shopping centre. It has recently been subject to an application for retail led mixed use development (application reference: 20080696) that was refused by Gravesham Council on the grounds of height, bulk and massing. The proposals included between 7,000sqm and 8,500sqm of new comparison retail floorspace. A subsequent planning appeal was submitted and withdrawn. Following discussions with the Council, it was indicated that the principle of a retail-led scheme was acceptable and it is expected that a revised application will be submitted in the near future. 5.5.5 Outline planning consent was recently granted subject to legal agreement for the mixed-use redevelopment of the former Chatham docks (application reference: MC/11/2756). The proposals include up to 179,297sqm of floorspace including employment units, residential, student accommodation, hotels, leisure, conference facilities, education and retail, including a superstore. The retail element is focussed on an Asda foodstore of up to 7,375sqm, with an additional 5,641sqm of retail, health and nursery uses. 5.5.6 The above schemes help to differentiate between the special function of Bluewater and the nature of the proposed extension when compared to other schemes coming forward within the catchment area. The proposals described above are all for large mixed use developments and, with the exception of the Gravesend Heritage Quarter, principally anchored by convenience retail floorspace, with relatively small elements of comparison floorspace. 5.6 Summary of Health Checks 5.6.1 Health checks were undertaken of those sub-regional and major district centres within closest proximity to Bluewater, notably Dartford, Gravesend, Chatham and Bexleyheath. Although application proposals will predominantly compete with competing and comparable regional and metropolitan centres, it is important to understand the status and retail composition of those lower order centres closest to Bluewater to inform the analysis. 5.6.2 This analysis found Dartford to be performing at an adequate level in terms of retail indicators, orientated towards the lower-to-mid retail market and acting as an important destination for the local catchment. The household survey notes that 25.3% of respondents in Zone 1, and 37.5% of respondents in Zone 2 use the centre for day-to-day non-food goods. These zones encompass and immediately adjoin Dartford. Despite the economic recession, the effects of which have been felt nationally, the centre has retained numerous national multiple retailers and displayed reasonable levels of pedestrian footfall through the core shopping area. 5.6.3 The Lowfield Street consent will, if implemented, transform a substantial amount of vacant property, attract increased levels of footfall and help improve the retail offering within Dartford. 5.6.4 Dartford town centre is therefore comparatively different from Bluewater by virtue of the range of goods on offer, the quality of goods on offer, and the specific shopping role it performs. 5.6.5 Gravesend town centre was found to be slightly underperforming. Notwithstanding this, an attractive pedestrian core with reasonable footfall levels was evident. Without investment, it is considered that the centre may begin to decline as competing sub-regional centres strengthen. 5.6.6 The proposed redevelopment of the Heritage Quarter will be an important development to enhance the vitality and viability of Gravesend and improve its overall competitiveness. 5.6.7 Gravesend serves a quantitatively different role and function as a retail destination to Bluewater. Shopping patterns indicate that it performs strongly within its home zone (Zone 2) for day to day non- food goods, attracting 43.2% of respondents. A further 19.3% were attracted from Bluewater’s home zone, Zone 1. Across Zone 2, Gravesend displays high market shares compared to other survey zones. This indicatesGravesham that, despite the national effectsBorough of the economic recession, Council the centre is an important retail destination serving the local catchment.
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5.6.8 Bexleyheath is a sub-regional centre located within Zone 4 of the Household Survey. The centre is vital and viable, comprising a broad range of retailers and performing well despite economic uncertainty. As is common for a sub-regional centre, Bexleyheath is an important shopping destination for the local catchment, competing with the likes of Dartford and Gravesend within the retail hierarchy. This is evidenced by the household survey, which notes that 41.7% of respondents within Bexleyheath’s home zone (Zone 4) shop at the centre for day-to-day non-good goods. The centre also performs strongly within its home zone for clothing and footwear goods (41.1%), CDs DVDs and Computer Games (46.7%) and personal goods (32.3%). 5.6.9 Chatham is concentrated on the lower end of the retail market, competing with other sub-regional centres such as Dartford and Gravesend. The centre contains the highest concentration of retail and service units of any defined centre within the Borough of Medway, although it would benefit from some environmental improvements. 5.6.10 Chatham is an important destination that serves the local catchment populations day-to-day and weekly shopping needs. Within its ‘home’ zone (Zone 5), the centre attracts 32.5% of respondents for day-to-day non-food shopping needs. The centre performs consistently across the range of comparison goods assessed within this zone, attracting 42.4% of respondents for electrical appliances, and 37.8% of respondents for CDs DVDs and Computer Games. The centre attracts a reasonably high percentage of respondents for DIY and Decorating supplies (25.6%) within its home zone, whereby in contrast, Bluewater attracts only 2.2% from its home zone.
Gravesham Borough Council
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6 Household Survey: Shopping Patterns 6.1 Introduction 6.1.1 A household telephone survey was conducted in October 2012 to help establish the existing trading patterns in the Bluewater catchment to support both the retail impact and transport impact modelling. 6.1.2 This section of the assessment considers retailing patterns relevant to the proposed extension to Bluewater, notably those of comparison goods shopping across the following categories: • Clothing and Footwear; • CDs, DVDs, Computer Games; • Household Textiles, Soft Furnishing, Floor Coverings; • Domestic Appliances; • Electrical Appliances; • Personal Goods; • DIY and Decorating; and • Day to Day Non-Food. 6.1.3 In addition, the general performance of centres within the catchment and wider survey catchment are considered in order to examine the existing rates of expenditure retention. 6.2 Survey Structure
Survey Area 6.2.1 The study catchment covers the area described in Section 5 above which was derived using Experian research. 6.2.2 The study area represents the principal area from which the proposals are expected to draw the majority of trade. Its extent has been agreed with Dartford Borough Council and extends across much of Kent, South London and North Essex. 6.2.3 The household survey area subsequently modified this catchment to achieve a best fit with postal sectors. A plan of the household survey zones is provided at Appendix 4. The survey area extends to Ashford to the south-east, Croydon to the west and Basildon to the north. 6.2.4 The survey area was then divided into 16 zones which are set out in terms of postal codes at Appendix 4a. The purpose of dividing the catchment area into a number of zones is to allow differential behaviour across the catchment area to be analysed
Study Questions 6.2.5 The survey questions cover a wide range of comparison goods that are of relevance to Bluewater and the surrounding centres. 17 questions were asked in total, and are included at Appendix 6 of this statement. 6.2.6 In accordance with the Practice Guidance on Need, Impact and the Sequential Approach that previously accompanied PPS4, 100 surveys were sought within each of the 16 survey zones. The household survey achieved a minimum of 90 surveys per survey zone with the exception of Zones 6 (89) and 13 (88). This is considered a robust sample. The results are weighted on the basis of population differencesGravesham between each area. Borough Council
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Comparison Retail Expenditure and Population 6.2.7 Table 6 below sets out the population and expenditure generated within the survey area zones for comparison goods at the 2012 base year:
Zone Population Comparison Expenditure (£’000m)
1 58,360 172,706
2 163,714 441,147
3 148,814 397,030
4 353,907 969,820
5 221,790 590,037
6 110,902 301,056
7 225,326 724,525
8 73,682 259,933
9 159,155 472,506
10 84,568 237,541
11 48,061 161,677
12 120,745 372,384
13 74,561 251,461
14 429,600 1,265,188
15 435,735 1,191,565
16 292,203 817,424
Total 3,001,123 8,626,001
Table 6: Household Survey Area – Comparison Expenditure (2012)
Comparison Goods Types Expenditure Populations 6.2.8 Expenditure and population statistics are generated for each zone by Experian. In order to establish the proportion of expenditure spent on comparison goods, the modelling weights each comparison goods category outlined at sub-section 6.1 in accordance with Experian’s recommended approach. 6.2.9 Expenditure is adjusted to reflect forecast increases in expenditure. Experian indicate that planning decisions for the next two decades should be focussed on the long-term, ignoring the short-term effects of recent economic events (Experian Retail Planner 10.1, p11). Long term comparison growth rates of 2.8% perGravesham annum are therefore applied. Borough Council
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Centre Turnover 6.2.10 Turnovers of each assessed centre have been sourced from published and accepted studies, including Council Retail Studies and, where these are not available, Retail Impact Assessments of approved planning applications. The likely percentage of this turnover figure derived from the Bluewater survey area has then been assessed taking into account: • An understanding of the study area used as part of the relevant Borough Retail Study; • An understanding of the retail composition of the centre and its position within the hierarchy. For example, lower order centres will comprise more localised catchment areas, whilst higher order centres will comprise much larger catchments; and • Professional judgments and knowledge of the catchment area, informed by the survey results. 6.2.11 The household survey results have informed the likely proportion of each centre’s turnover drawn from each survey zone within the study area. To maintain consistency, all turnover figures are at 2010 prices, and have been projected to the forecast year in line with Experian growth rates (2.8% per annum). 6.3 Patterns of Expenditure Flows 6.3.1 This study assesses relevant regional/metropolitan centres within and outside of the catchment. Further centres lower down the retail hierarchy have also been considered, where relevant. Table 7 below identifies these centres, categorised in accordance with Venuescore (2011):
Centre Type Centres Included
Regional / Metropolitan (Inside Bluewater, Lakeside, Bromley, Tunbridge Wells, Catchment) Croydon, Maidstone, Romford, Basildon Ilford, Southend-on-Sea, Chelmsford, Stratford Regional / Metropolitan (Outside (Westfield), Central London, Canterbury, Crawley, Catchment) Sutton Dartford, Gravesend, Bexleyheath, Chatham, Sub-Regional & Major District Ashford, Tonbridge, Orpington, Brentwood Sevenoaks, Sittingbourne, Swanley, Sheerness, District, Minor District, Local & Retail Strood, Crayford, Hempstead Valley Shopping Park Centre, Lakeside Retail Park
Table 7: Categories of Included Centres. Source: Venuescore (2011) 6.3.2 Regional/metropolitan centres dominate spending patterns within the catchment (see Table 8 below).
Centre Type Total Turnover Derived From Study Catchment (2012) (£’000)
All Regional/Metropolitan Centres Within £2,937,917 Catchment
All Regional/Metropolitan Centres Outside £1,070,153 Catchment
Sub-Regional & Major District Centres Within £838,215 CatchmentGravesham Borough Council
District / Minor District / Local Centres & Retail £535,840 Parks Within Catchment
Table 8: Comparison on Centres – Catchment Turnover 2012
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6.3.3 The regional/metropolitan centres account for £3.04 billion of catchment expenditure. Sub-regional/ major district centres accounting or £838.21m, and remaining assessed centres £535.84 million. 6.4 Bluewater 6.4.1 Table 9 confirms that Bluewater draws its trade from across the study area, with its influence decreasing with distance. The table below sets out Bluewater’s market share and turnover derived from the survey zones:
Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8
7.78% / 14.54% / 12.25% 18.86% / 9.59% / 2.21% / 10.94% 6.10% / £62.8m £117.4m / £152.3m £77.4m £17.8m / £49.3m £98.9m £88.3m
Z9 Z10 Z11 Z12 Z13 Z14 Z15 Z16
4.68% / 0.27% / 0.73% / 1.93% / 1.77% / 4.01% / 3.81% / 0.53% / £37.8m £2.2m £5.9m £15.6m £14.3m £32.4m £30.8m £4.3m
Table 9: Bluewater’s Derived Turnover by Survey Zone (2012) 6.4.2 Bluewater currently has a turnover of circa £850 million. The figures above add to a total turnover of £807.5m, on the basis that Bluewater draws 95% of its trade from within its catchment. It is assumed that 5% of Bluewater’s trade is drawn from outside of the catchment, which is considered to be a robust assumption. Bluewater’s existing turnover equates to approximately 9.8% of the available expenditure within the study area. 6.4.3 The household survey evidence also shows that Bluewater is a popular shopping destination for different types of comparison goods. As it to be expected, the centre is largely used as a destination for clothing and footwear. Table 10 below identifies the zonal shopping patterns for these types of goods across the catchment. As expected, this also shows that Bluewater’s market share decreases the further out the zone is in the catchment area. For example, in Zone 16, to the north of the Thames Estuary, Bluewater only has a 1.1% market share for clothing and footwear.
Comparison Goods Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Type
Clothing & 60.6% 37.5% 48.4% 25.6% 20.9% 7.9% 13% 34.1% Footwear
Z9 Z10 Z11 Z12 Z13 Z14 Z15 Z16
Clothing & 11.8% 1.1% 6.7% 10% 10.2% 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% Footwear
Table 10: Bluewater Clothing & Footwear Goods Market Share
Gravesham Borough Council
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Main Comparison Goods outside the Catchment 6.4.4 Although falling outside of the catchment, the influence of the larger regional centres on comparison shopping patterns penetrates throughout the entire survey area, as demonstrated in the table below:
Centre Turnover Derived from Catchment % of Available Expenditure in (2012) Catchment
Ilford £105.77m 1.2%
Southend on Sea £109.46m 1.3%
Chelmsford £145.15m 1.7%
Westfield Stratford £229.3m 2.6% City
Central London £144.28m 1.7%
Canterbury £172.02m 2%
Crawley £107.12m 1.2%
Sutton £57.05m 0.7%
Total £1.070bn 12.4%
Table 11: Out of Catchment Centres Turnover Derived from Catchment (2012) 6.4.5 Table 11 notes that there is outflow of £1.07bn of expenditure to the above centres outside the catchment (equivalent to 12.4% of the available expenditure in the catchment area). This compares to Bluewater’s existing turnover of circa 9.8% of the available expenditure.
Gravesham Borough Council
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6.4.6 An analysis of turnover of centres within the catchment area shows that the identified centres in the study area retain 50% of catchment expenditure, with the remaining 50% going outside of the catchment area or to smaller centres in the catchment not included in this study. Expenditure either being spent outside of the identified centres in the catchment and to centres outside of the catchment area accounts for approximately £4.3 billion.
Survey Zone Available Expenditure Spent in Expenditure Difference Expenditure Identified Catchment Retention (£’000) (£’000) Centres (£’000)
1 £172,706 120,217 69.6% -£52,489
2 £441,147 377,622 85.6% -£63,525
3 £397,030 244,893 61.7% -£152,137
4 £969,820 475,927 49.1% -£493,893
5 £590,037 369,501 62.6% -£220,536
6 £301,056 190,768 63.4% -£110,288
7 £724,525 347,565 48.0% -£376,960
8 £259,933 143,695 55.3% -£116,238
9 £472,506 338,311 71.6% -£134,195
10 £237,541 74,224 31.2% -£163,317
11 £161,677 91,381 56.5% -£70,296
12 £372,384 194,757 52.3% -£177,627
13 £251,461 54,622 21.7% -£196,839
14 £1,265,188 557,698 44.1% -£707,490
15 £1,191,565 498,836 41.9% -£692,729
16 £817,424 231,949 28.4% -£585,475
Total £8,626,001 4,311,968 50.0% -£4,314,033
Table 12: Comparison Goods Retention Levels in the Catchment Area 2012
Gravesham Borough Council
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7 Assessment of Proposals 7.1 Effects of Bluewater in Context 7.1.1 This section considers the likely effect of the proposals on comparison shopping patterns within the study area. It follows the requirements of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and guidance contained within the PPS4 Practice Guidance, and will justify the proposals by assessing the following requirements contained within NPPF paragraph 26: “The impact of the proposal on existing, committed and planned public and private investment in a centre or centres in the catchment area of the proposal; and The impact of the proposal on town centre vitality and viability, including local consumer choice and trade in the town centre and wider area, up to five years from the time the application is made. For major schemes where the full impact will not be realised in five years, the impact should also be assessed up to ten years from the time the application is made.” 7.1.2 Before considering each of these elements, it is important to set the application proposals in context. 7.1.3 The Dartford Core Strategy specifically identifies Bluewater as a location which is appropriate for specialist comparison retail floorspace, subject to a number of specific factors. These include an assessment of the likely impact of the scheme on neighbouring town centres and regional considerations. 7.1.4 The position of Bluewater as part of a complementary network of shopping centres within the retail hierarchy has already been considered through the Core Strategy and therefore a traditional impact assessment would not be appropriate. However, an analysis has been undertaken of the effect on investment and the impact on vitality and viability on centres in the catchment, in order to inform the likely effects of the proposals on centres in the study area. 7.2 Capacity Analysis 7.2.1 Prior to considering the effects of the proposals on existing centres in the catchment area, it is useful to first consider the overall capacity for comparison retail floorspace within the study area.
Base, Design and Forecast Years 7.2.2 The base year adopted for the assessment is 2012, which is the date of the household survey undertaken in October 2012. The design year of 2018 is a realistic representative of the second full calendar year of trading after opening of the development. This will allow the proposal to become established within the catchment. In accordance with the requirements of Paragraph 26 of the NPPF, the forecast year is 2022 which is ten years from the base year. This is considered appropriate to realise the full impact of the proposals given their significance and scale.
Quantitative Assessment Methodology and Process 7.2.3 This assessment uses an established and accepted methodology regarding quantitative assessments in assessing future expenditure capacity and quantifying the effects. The full quantitative assessment is included within Appendix 5. The following paragraphs outline the core elements of assessment. 7.2.4 Tables A1 to A3 of Appendix 5 quantify the population and available comparison retail expenditure per survey zone at base, design and forecast year. Between 2012 and 2018, available expenditure within the catchment is expected to grow by £1.55 billion, whilst between 2012 and 2022 it is expected to grow byGravesham £2.89bn. Borough Council
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7.2.5 Population growth is estimated at an average 10.5% between 2010 and 2012. This is based on population forecasts taken from Experian Demographics data (November 2012), which is recognised as authoritative of such data. A standard rate has been applied across all zones in the study area. Population estimates do not include proposed residential developments that could lead to further increases in population and expenditure, including Ebbsfleet Valley/Eastern Quarry, Chatham Docks, the Heritage Quarter and the Larner Road Estate in Bexley. The assessment therefore takes a robust view of population growth. 7.2.6 Within the calculations of total expenditure available per zone, a deduction per annum is made to account for the growing trend for non-floorspace based retail expenditure, commonly referred to as Special Forms of Trading (SFT). The expenditure assessment uses the recommended approach outlined by Experian Retail Planning Briefing Note 10.1. Appendix 3 of the briefing note sets out those deductions for comparison non-store retail sales i.e. 9.9% at 2012, rising to 16% at 2022. 7.2.7 The turnover of each centre has been established at a consistent price base from published and accepted sources of data, including Borough Retail Studies and, where these are not available, approved retail impact assessments. Each turnover is forecast to increase on an annual basis in accordance with the expenditure growth figures outlined above. The information collected in the household survey and professional judgement was then used to define the percentage of a centre’s turnover which is anticipated to be derived from each zone in the Bluewater catchment area. This took into account: • An understanding of the study area used as part of the relevant Retail Study; • An understanding of the retail composition of each centre and its position within the hierarchy. For example, lower order centres will comprise a smaller, more localised catchment area to that of higher order centres; and • Patterns of expenditure within the catchment area, informed by the household survey results.
7.2.9 Using the above methodology, the table provides a capacity analysis of the percentage impact of the proposed extension on available expenditure within the study area.
Year Expenditure Turnover of Available Turnover of Turnover as Turnover as Forecasts Existing Expenditure Proposed % of Total % of (Zone 1-16) Centres from Extension Expenditure Available 1 (£000) 2 (£000) Study Area Expenditure (£000) (£000)
2012 8,626,001 5,382,126 3,243,875 125,888 1.5% 3.9%
2018 9,627,069 6,352,030 3,275,029 125,888 1.5% 3.8%
2022 11,521,075 7,093,899 4,427,176 125,888 1% 2.8%
Table 13: Turnover of Extension as a % of Available Expenditure Notes 1 Minus Special forms of trading and eTailing – see Table 2 of Appendix 4 for details; 2 Derived using benchmark turnovers (see below).
Gravesham Borough Council
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7.2.10 Even accounting for population growth alone (i.e. entirely “new” spending not including growth in expenditure) within the catchment up to 2022 would result in an additional £850m of retail spending. The proposed extension would account for approximately 15% of this new spending, as shown in the table below.
Year Population Expenditure Expenditure Turnover of Turnover as Growth related to related to Proposed % of
(2010-2022) population expenditure Extension2 Population- growth growth related (£000) Growth (£000) (£000)
2022 310,168 851,838 2,282,404 125,888 15%
Table 14: Turnover of Extension as a % of Population-related Growth 7.2.11 This demonstrates that the turnover of the proposed extension represents only a very small percentage of the available expenditure within the study area, taking into account turnover of existing centres. There is therefore significant additional expenditure available for all centres within the study area to grow and thus the impact of the proposals is considered to be minimal. However, the following sections consider the effect of the proposals on existing centres in more detail, taking into account planned investment and commitments. 7.3 Effects on Trade/Turnover 7.3.1 Following an establishment of existing trading patterns across the study period the assessment considers the potential effects of the proposals on the turnover of each centre. This follows a zone-by-zone basis to assess the following: • The turnover of each centre at 2018 (design year); • The turnover of each centre at 2022 (forecast year); • The level of new expenditure diverted via trade draw to the application proposals; and • The turnover of each centre at forecast year (2022) following a deduction of the trade draw.
7.3.2 The level of expenditure diverted to the application proposals has been assessed using the information from the household survey about where people within the catchment area shop. It is assumed that Bluewater will retain its current market share and that the turnover from the extension will be derived from increases in expenditure in the study area as a result of population growth. 7.3.3 This analysis should be seen in the context of the above capacity assessment which demonstrates that the turnover of the extension accounts for less than 4% of the total available expenditure in the study area in 2018 and less than 3% in 2022. 7.3.4 The analysis concludes with an assessment of the cumulative effects of the proposals and established retail commitments and aspirations. This shows the overall effects on growth across the base to forecast year period. 7.3.5 This assessment also assumes that there will be increases in efficiencies from existing floorspace of 1.5% per annum based on Figure 4b of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 10.1. This assumes that every centre grows year on year by 1.5% in real terms, which is unlikely in practice. The assessment of effects on trade and turnover is therefore considered to be ultra conservative. Gravesham Borough Council
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Expenditure Patterns 7.3.6 Using the approach explained above an overview of centre performance within the catchment is provided below at Table 15. Centre Venuescore (2011) Centre Comparison Catchment Classification Derived Turnover 2012 (£’000)
Bluewater Regional £807,500
Lakeside Regional £174,548
Bromley Regional £376,097
Tunbridge Wells Regional £218,688
Croydon Regional £439,666
Maidstone Regional £496,139
Romford Regional £256,286
Basildon Regional £168,993
Dartford Sub-regional/Major District £97,007
Gravesend Sub-regional/Major District £184,882
Bexleyheath Sub-regional/Major District £212,846
Chatham Sub-regional/Major District £191,005
Ashford Sub-regional/Major District £64,816
Tonbridge Sub-regional/Major District £27,439
Orpington Sub-regional/Major District £26,861
Brentwood Sub-regional/Major District £33,359
Sevenoaks District/Minor/Local £51,684
Sittingbourne District/Minor/Local £72,840
Swanley District/Minor/Local £10,922
Sheerness District/Minor/Local £45,378
Strood District/Minor/Local £64,022 CrayfordGravesham District/Minor/Local Borough Council£88,277 Hempstead Valley Shopping District/Minor/Local Centre £110,194
Lakeside Retail Park Retail Park £92,522
Table 15: Turnover of Centres Derived from the Bluewater Study Catchment (2012)
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7.3.7 In addition, a significant portion of catchment expenditure will be spent at those lower order centres not assessed within the catchment area, and those centres at all hierarchical levels located outside the catchment. The application proposals have the potential to ‘clawback’ modest amounts of expenditure lost to the destinations outside of the catchment, particularly those regional/metropolitan centres that are comparable to Bluewater.
Proposed Turnover of Extension 7.3.8 The turnover of the proposals is generated by a calculation of the total additional net sales area and a benchmark retail sales density. In order to provide a robust justification for the proposals, the maximum parameter for net comparison sales floorspace has been used. It is possible, therefore, that this assessment may overstate the turnover and trade draws of the proposals. 7.3.9 Benchmark comparison sales densities are not readily available for centres themselves. Regard has therefore been had to the precedent established in two relevant planning applications: • Lakeside Shopping Centre Extension (app ref: 11/50433/TTGOUT): Planning permission was granted on 2 August 2012 for an extension to the shopping centre comprising 33,502sqm net sales area. As part of this application, a sales density of £4,622/sqm was applied and accepted; • Westfield Shopping Centre White City Extension (app ref: 2011/02940/OUT): Planning permission was granted on 16 February 2012 for an extension to the shopping centre comprising 31,966sqm net sales area. As part of this application, a sales density of £6,500/sqm was applied and accepted. 7.3.10 The appropriate sales density will be dependent upon several factors including the centre’s size, its composition and location, and the retailers present. The above two applications represent the most recently accepted sales densities for comparable regional centres. In light of these accepted applications, and considering the retail composition of each centre, a sales density of £6,000/sqm is considered applicable to the proposals. Table 16 below summarises the turnover of the proposed extension:
Centre Net Sales Benchmark Turnover from Turnover from Additional Density Turnover Catchment Outside Sales Catchment
Comparison 22,086 £6.000 £132.51m 95% £125.89m 5% £6.63m Goods sqm sqm
Table 16 Proposed Turnover of Extension 7.3.11 The comparison turnover of the extension is projected to be £132.51m using 2010 prices. This is considered to be a robust figure to use throughout the assessment. The development is anticipated to be open and trading in 2017 and it is unlikely that the centre will be able to achieve particular efficiencies in the first five years of trading. It is also important that the final built floorspace could fall below the maximum parameter, and the resultant turnover would subsequently decrease. Furthermore, given the scale of Bluewater, the centre may experience greater than a 5% inflow due to secondary economies. It is therefore considered that the anticipated turnover is robust.
Trade Draws – Baseline Assumptions 7.3.12 The trade draw assessment is based on professional judgement around a series of core assumptions, including that like affects like, i.e. regional/metropolitan centres, particularly those orientated towards the higherGravesham ends of the retail market, will logicallyBorough divert trade from similarCouncil facilities. This is supported within the PPS4 Practice Guidance (para. D.27).
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7.3.13 The trade draw assessment follows the principles identified within the Practice Guide Appendix D (Quantifying Impact), specifically: “There is a general assumption that like affects like, for example, in an area already served by large modern foodstores, the effects of a new large food superstore are likely to fall disproportionately on the existing competing stores. Their proportionate impact on local independent retailers, or discount foodstores for example may be less. …it is relevant to consider distance, based on the assumption that generally consumers will seek to use the closest comparable facility. So, for example, if in a given zone a relatively small proportion of trade is attracted to a facility which is similar to, but considerably further away than the proposal in question, it is likely to have a disproportionate effect on that facility.” 7.3.14 Consistent with this approach, the proposals are likely to draw the majority of their trade from those regional/metropolitan centres that are not only closest to the centre, but also the most comparable in terms of fashion and retail provision. 7.3.15 It is also assumed that there will there be lower trade diversions from centres that are lower down the retail hierarchy, for example Dartford, Gravesend and Chatham, and those centres that are geographically unlikely to have any identifiable impact on the basis of being too far away, for example Ilford, Romford and Basildon. 7.3.16 It is legitimate to expect that a proportion of trade will be drawn to the proposal from the existing shopping centre at Bluewater. A conservative figure of 15% has been assumed to robustly assess the impact. In reality, it is possible that this over estimates the impact on surrounding centres. It is noted that precedent exists from the recently approved application for an extension to Lakeside Shopping Centre. This drew 23% of the extension turnover from the centre itself (£37.58m from £162.89m), and a further 17% (£26.4m) from the adjoining Lakeside Retail Park. 7.3.17 The trade draw assessment considers the trading patterns of Bluewater at the date of the survey (October 2012). Although drawing its trade from across the catchment, those zones where most of the existing trade is drawn include Zones 2 (15%), 3 (12%), 4 (19%) and 7 (11%). Several reasons can be attributed for this pattern, including higher zonal populations, proximity to Bluewater, the presence of competing regional/metropolitan centres and the presence of several centres within the zone. 7.3.18 The use of these zones is therefore helpful in assessing the likely effect of the proposals. In applying the core assumptions outlined above, it is reasonable to expect trade to be diverted to the proposals in a pattern that broadly reflects the existing pattern of Bluewater’s expenditure attraction. 7.3.19 It is also reasonable to expect the Bluewater proposals to claw back a small amount of expenditure that is leaking outside of the catchment, although given the size of the catchment area, this is not anticipated to be of a significant level and this is not accounted for in the assessment.
Trade Draws – Zonal Patterns 7.3.20 In applying the baseline assumptions to the trade draw patterns, it can be assumed that the patterns of trade to the proposals will broadly follow those patterns of trade attracted to the existing Bluewater Shopping Centre. The table below summarises the trade draw to the proposed extension by household survey zone:
Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8
Turnover to £8.23m £14.22m £11.07m £18.72m £8.53m £4.40m £10.68m £7.55m Application Proposals
GraveshamZ9 Z10 Z11 BoroughZ12 Z13 CouncilZ14 Z15 Z16
Turnover to £7.25m £0.95m £2.46m £3.91m £3.47m £6.77m £4.96m £1.64m Application Proposals
Table 17: Turnover to application proposals by household survey zone (2022)
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7.3.21 In the no development scenario, the household survey indicates that the majority of Bluewater’s existing turnover is derived from Zones 2, 3, 4 and 7. This is replicated in the trade draw patterns to the proposed extension, where it is anticipated that the trade draws to the proposed extension will follow a broadly similar pattern, albeit this may differ slightly as the baseline principles are applied to the expenditure flows within the household survey. 7.3.22 As indicated by existing trading patterns at Bluewater, the highest proportions of trade drawn to the extension are from Zones 2, 3, 4 and 7.
Trade Draws – Headline Impacts 7.3.23 The application proposal is anticipated to derive its trade draws as follows:
Turnover (TO) TO Derived TO from TO from TO from Sub- TO from TO from of Bluewater From Regional / Regional / Regional & District, Minor Elsewhere Extension Bluewater Metropolitan Metropolitan Major Districts District, Local Within Outside & Retail Park Catchment Catchment
£m £125.89m £18.883m £64.297m £11.94m £12.27m £7.41m £11.09m
% 100% 15% 51.1% 9.5% 9.7% 5.8% 8.9%
Table 18: Summary of Trade Diversion (2022) 7.3.24 Although the assessment shows that some trade is being drawn from more minor centres, this is considered to be a worst case scenario and, given the specialist nature of the proposed comparison floorspace, it is possible that no trade will be drawn at all from smaller centres. It is also important that the additional trade is all from growth in expenditure – each of the centres in the catchment area will continue to grow and this is evident from the assessment of cumulative impact provided later in this report. 7.3.25 The turnover of the application proposals can also be characterised in the context of the catchment area, as follows:
Total Turnover of Total Growth 2012 – Turnover of Bluewater Bluewater Centres Derived 2022 (Expenditure Bluewater Proposals as % of Proposals as % of From Bluewater Growth Minus Proposals Total Turnover Total Growth 2012 Catchment (2022) Floorspace Efficiency) (2022) - 2022
£5.68bn £356.49m £125.89m 2.2% 35.3%
Table 19: Turnover of Proposals in Context of the Catchment Notes: assumes centres from within the catchment only and turnover derived from the Bluewater catchment area. Floorspace efficiencies sourced from Experian Retail Planner 10.1
7.3.26 The proposed extension will comprise only 2.2% of the total turnover of all centres within the catchment area at forecast year. When considering the growth of these centres across the base to forecast year period, the proposals account for 35.3% of total growth, however the latter includes deductions made for turnover improvements through floorspace efficiencies. Turnover efficiency rates have been sourced from Figure 4b of Experian Planner Briefing Note 10.1 (September 2012), as summarised below. In accordance with the Briefing Note (p13), turnover efficiencies for changing retail floorspace have been includedGravesham as follows. Borough Council 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-19 2020-29
Density growth rate (%) 0.8 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.1 1.8
Table 20: Turnover Efficiencies (Source: Experian Planner Briefing Note 10.1, September 2012)
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7.3.27 Thus, all centres within the catchment areas are assumed to be increasing their turnover in real terms and, even with the extension, there is still significant surplus growth in the catchment area. 7.3.28 This is considered to be an ultra-robust approach, as in practice floorspace efficiencies are considered unlikely to account for this level of growth in the catchment area. Table 14 shows that the turnover of the proposals as a percentage of total growth (not taking into account increase in expenditure through floorspace efficiencies) is closer to 4%. 7.3.29 In addition to real growth through floorspace efficiencies, turnover will continue to grow by 64.7% at the assessed centres within the catchment area across this period, even accounting for the proposed extension. This accounts for £230.6m. 7.3.30 The effect of the proposed extension on key centres in the catchment area has been calculated by dividing the change in turnover as a result of the proposed extension by the turnover of the centre. The third column provides context to the proposals and demonstrate that each centre is still seeing growth in the study period, even after accounting for floorspace efficiencies. 7.3.31 The below table summarises the key effects of the trade draws to the proposals (not accounting for commitments):
Centre % Effect due to Proposals Adjusted Growth (2012-2022) (2022) (as % of 2012 turnover)
Lakeside -2.72% 14%
Bromley -2.81% 14%
Tunbridge 13% -2.02% Wells
Maidstone -1.87% 14%
Dartford -1.25% 13%
Gravesend -1.19% 12%
Bexleyheath -0.84% 12%
Chatham -1.06% 12%
Table 21: Key Effects of the Proposals 7.3.32 All of the above centres show healthy growth in turnover, after turnover increases through floorspace efficiencies, with the development proposals in place. 7.3.33 The largest of the above impacts are centered on the regional/metropolitan centres that are comparable to Bluewater. The sub-regional and major district centres experience slightly lower effects in trade draw loss. These percentage levels are low, and well within the normally accepted tolerance levels. Accordingly the proposals will not lead to adverse impacts upon the identified centres. 7.3.34 The trade draw effects for all centres included within this assessment are discussed in more detail in the following paragraphs. Gravesham Borough Council
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Trade Draws – Regional/Metropolitan Centres 7.3.35 The following tables provide a summary of the trade draw assessment provided at Table A13 of Appendix 5, summarised by each category of centre. This details the dominant centres within the catchment, and considers the projected impact arising from the proposed extension to Bluewater.
Centre 2012 Turnover (TO) (£m) Trade TO Change in TO 2018– Effect on Effect on Draw after 2022 Centre Total 2018 2022 Trade Turnover Centre £m Draw £m % From Turnover Catchment 2022 (%) 2022 (%)
Bluewater 807.50 953.02 1,064.32 18.883 1,045.44 92.42 9.70% 1.77% 1.69%
Lakeside 174.55 206.00 230.06 13.914 216.15 10.15 4.93% 6.05% 2.72%
Bromley 376.1 443.87 495.71 17.421 478.29 34.42 7.75% 3.51% 2.81%
Tunbridge 216.69 258.10 288.24 10.606 277.64 19.54 7.57% 3.68% 2.02% Wells
Croydon 439.66 518.90 579.50 6.700 572.80 53.90 10.39% 1.16% 0.58%
Maidstone 496.14 585.55 653.93 14.351 639.58 54.04 9.23% 2.19% 1.87%
Romford 256.29 302.47 337.80 0.801 337.00 34.53 11.41% 0.24% 0.12%
Basildon 168.99 199.45 222.74 0.505 222.24 22.79 11.43% 0.23% 0.11%
Total 2,935.92 3,467.35 3,872.31 83.18 3,789.13 321.78 9.28% 2.15% -
Table 22: Regional/Metropolitan Centres: Summary of Impact 7.3.36 The above impacts are based on effect of the proposals on the turnover of each centre derived from the catchment area. Many of the centres studies, particularly those peripheral to Bluewater’s catchment will draw significant expenditure from outside the study area. On this basis, the impact of the proposals on each centres are considered to be worse case. This is particularly relevant for those peripheral centres, including Lakeside, Bromley and Tunbridge Wells. 7.3.37 As stated above, the extension is proposed to derive just over 60% of its turnover from growth available in the study area to regional and metropolitan centres (both within and outside of the catchment area). The table above shows that the effect on these centres as a result of the extension will be minimal and considerably below the generally accepted levels. Importantly, the percentage impact is substantially below the percentage growth between 2018 and 2022 and the turnover of each centre will continue to grow across the design to forecast year period following the effects of the proposals. 7.3.38 The proposed extension to Bluewater will provide a positive alternative to those shoppers utilising competing regional/metropolitan centres, or those having to travel considerable distances to benefit from a wider choice retail offer.
Gravesham Borough Council
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Trade Draws – Sub-Regional and Major District Centres 7.3.39 The majority of turnover for the extension will be derived from growth in regional and metropolitan centres within the study period. However, it is also useful to consider the impact on centres further down the retail hierarchy. The figures below are considered to be a worse case assessment on the basis that they assume increases in turnover of existing centres through floorspace efficiencies which is unlikely to achieved in practice. 7.3.40 The table below summarises the projected impact on sub-regional and major district centres within the catchment:
Centre 2012 Turnover (TO) Trade TO after Change in TO 2018– Impact on Impact on (£m) Draw Trade 2022 Centre Total Draw Turnover Centre 2018 2022 £m £m % From Turnover Catchment 2022 (%) 2022 (%)
Dartford 97.01 114.49 127.86 1.687 126.17 11.68 10.21% 1.32% 1.25%
Gravesend 184.88 218.20 243.68 3.054 240.63 22.43 10.28% 1.25% 1.19%
Bexleyheath 212.85 251.20 280.54 2.615 277.93 26.72 10.64% 0.93% 0.84%
Chatham 191.01 225.43 251.75 2.814 248.94 23.51 10.43% 1.12% 1.06%
Ashford 64.82 76.50 85.43 0.915 84.52 8.02 10.48% 1.07% 0.54%
Tonbridge 27.44 32.38 36.17 0.141 36.02 3.64 11.24% 0.39% 0.21%
Orpington 26.86 31.70 35.40 0.333 35.07 3.37 10.63% 0.94% 0.75%
Brentwood 33.36 39.37 43.97 0.711 43.26 3.89 9.87% 1.62% 0.65%
Total 838.23 989.27 1,104.81 12.27 1,092.54 103.27 10.44% 1.11% -
Table 23: Sub-Regional/Major District Centres: Summary of Impact 7.3.41 The table above shows that each of these centres still continue to show real growth throughout the study period. The effect of the proposals in all cases is significantly lower than the increase in turnover as a result of population increases in the study area. 7.3.42 It is inevitable that the extension proposals will absorb a small amount of additional expenditure available to sub-regional and major district centres. However, it is not expected that this will be significant and this is reflected in the above impacts which very low and generally less than 1%. As set out in Table 21 above, Dartford Gravesend and Chatham will still continue to see growth in the order of 12-13%, even without accounting for existing commitments which have been identified to for those centres. 7.3.43 Each centre continues to display strong growth across the design to forecast year period of approximately 9-10%. On this basis, the effects of trade draws to the proposals will not adversely impact upon each centre’s performance, nor will it affect its vitality and viability.
Trade Draws – District, Minor District, Local & Retail Park 7.3.44 It is not anticipated that the proposals will draw significant expenditure from district, minor district or local centres, or retail parks. The offer is entirely different to that proposed at Bluewater. However, there areGravesham lower order centres within Bluewat Borougher’s catchment whose growth Council in expenditure would be available for the proposed extension. On this basis, the figures below are considered to be a worst case scenario. Table 24 below summarises the effects on district, minor district, local centres and relevant retail parks:
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Turnover (TO) (£m) Trade TO Change in TO 2018– Impact on Impact on Draw after 2022 Centre Total Centre Centre 2018 2022 Trade Turnover Turnover £m Draw £m % From 2022 (%) 2012 Catchment 2022 (%)
Sevenoaks 51.68 61.00 68.12 0.571 67.55 6.55 10.74% 0.84% 0.71%
Sittingbourne 72.84 85.97 96.01 0.684 95.32 9.36 10.88% 0.71% 0.61%
Swanley 10.92 12.89 14.40 0.131 14.26 1.37 10.67% 0.91% 0.86%
Sheerness 45.38 53.56 59.81 0.380 59.43 5.87 10.97% 0.64% 0.60%
Strood 64.02 75.56 84.38 0.673 83.71 8.15 10.79% 0.80% 0.76%
Crayford 88.28 104.19 116.35 0.968 115.39 11.20 10.75% 0.83% 0.79%
Hempstead 110.19 Valley Shopping 130.05 145.24 1.153 144.09 14.04 10.79% 0.79% 0.75% Centre
Lakeside Retail 92.52 109.20 121.95 2.853 119.10 9.90 9.07% 2.34% 1.05% Park
Total 535.83 632.40 706.26 7.41 698.85 66.45 10.51% 1.05% -
Table 24: District, Minor Local Centres, & Retail Parks: Summary of Impact
7.3.45 The above effects are all generally less than 1% and each of the centres still demonstrate growth over the base year to forecast year of approximately 10% at each centre. 7.3.46 The application proposals will not, therefore, adversely impact upon the trade of these centres.
Gravesham Borough Council
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Trade Draws – Regional/Metropolitan Centres Outside Catchment 7.3.47 The below table summarises the projected effects on those regional/metropolitan centres included within this assessment that are located outside of the catchment area:
Turnover (TO) (£m) Trade TO after Change in TO Impact on Impact on Draw Trade 2018–2022 Centre Turnover Total Centre Centre 2018 2022 Draw From Catchment Turnover £m £m % 2022 (%) 2022 (%)
Ilford 124.83 139.41 0.705 138.71 13.87 11.11% 0.51% 0.15%
Southend on 129.19 144.28 0.264 144.01 14.82 11.47% 0.18% 0.05% Sea
Chelmsford 171.31 191.31 0.577 190.74 19.43 11.34% 0.30% 0.08%
Stratford 270.63 302.23 3.304 298.93 28.30 10.46% 1.09% 0.38% (Westfield)
Central 170.28 190.17 2.683 187.48 17.20 10.10% 1.41% 0.49% London
Canterbury 203.02 226.73 2.605 224.12 21.11 10.40% 1.15% 0.40%
Crawley 126.42 141.19 1.129 140.06 13.64 10.79% 0.80% 0.20%
Sutton 67.33 75.19 0.673 74.52 7.19 10.68% 0.89% 0.22%
Total 1,263.00 1,410.51 11.94 1,398.57 135.57 10.73% 0.85% -
Table 25: Regional/Metropolitan Centres Outside Catchment: Summary of Impact 7.3.48 It is relevant that the out of catchment regional/metropolitan centres will, in reality, draw a limited percentage of their overall turnover from the Bluewater catchment. The effects summarised above are purely in terms of the impact of the proposals on the available expenditure to that centre from Bluewater’s catchment. In some cases, these centres only overlap marginally with Bluewater. Stratford (Westfield), for example, has a total projected turnover of £863.53 million in 2022, but only 35% of this is anticipated to be derived from Bluewater’s catchment area. 7.3.49 The above trade draws account for £11.94 million of expenditure, with the impact on the overall turnover from each centre below 0.5%, which is considered acceptable in the context of the growth envisaged for those centres.
Gravesham Borough Council
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7.4 Cumulative Effect of Proposals and Commitments 7.4.1 The analysis above assumes that, aside from the proposed development at Bluewater coming forward, comparison retail provision will remain constant across the catchment throughout the study period. It is therefore appropriate to investigate the cumulative impact of the application proposals and comparison retail commitments and development aspirations within the study area. 7.4.2 Table A13 of Appendix 5 outlines the cumulative impact, and assesses the overall growth/deficit in each centre as a result. Table 26 below provides a summary for all regional/metropolitan, sub-regional and major district centres within the catchment. Details of additional centres within the catchment are included at Appendix 5.
Centre Turnover Adjusted Change in Adjusted Net Effect of Overall Cumulative Growth Capacity Turnover from Growth Commitments Growth of Effect of 2012 - (2022) Bluewater (2012-2022) (2022) Centre Proposals 2022 (£’000) Proposals (£’000) (£’000) 2012 - (2022) (£’000) 2022
A B C D E F G H (B – Turnover (C+D+F) Efficiency) (C+D)
Bluewater £270,341 £92,331 £157,170 218,219 -£13,781 £235,720 24.1%
Lakeside £123,366 £42,134 -£13,914 28,220 £116,030 £144,250 37.2%
Bromley £149,521 £51,067 -£17,421 33,646 -£10,100 £23,546 5%
Tunbridge 32,585 9.9% £126,460 £43,191 -£10,606 £6,945 £39,530 Wells
Croydon £279,669 £95,517 -£6,700 88,817 £20,880 £109,697 12.5%
Maidstone £185,642 £63,403 -£14,351 49,052 -£1,950 £47,102 8.1%
Romford £163,022 £55,678 -£801 54,877 -£22,029 £32,848 6.4%
Basildon £107,496 £36,714 -£505 36,209 -£11,280 £24,929 7.4%
Dartford £32,477 £11,092 -£1,687 9,405 £29,220 £38,625 37.8%
Gravesend £61,896 £21,140 -£3,054 18,086 £29,283 £47,369 24.3%
Bexleyheath £75,217 £25,689 -£2,615 23,074 £14,970 £38,044 16.1%
Chatham £63,946 £21,840 -£2,814 19,026 £9,747 £28,773 14.3%
Ashford £41,229 £14,081 -£915 13,166 -£200 £12,966 10%
Tonbridge £15,867 £5,419 -£141 5,278 -£2,000 £3,278 6.6%
Orpington £10,679 £3,647 -£333 3,314 -£700 £2,614 7.8%
Brentwood £26,524 £9,059 -£711 8,348 -£2,780 £5,568 6.7% Gravesham Borough CouncilTable 26: Cumulative Impact 2022 7.4.3 In assessing the cumulative impact, a number of assumptions have been required which have been made using professional judgements. In reaching these assumptions, Table 26 above is explained in the following paragraphs.
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7.4.4 Column B represents the total growth in each centre across the period from the 2012 base year to 2022 forecast year, based upon the total derived turnovers for each centre. This assumes that no additional development will come forward, and each centre will maintain its existing market share across the period to grow in line population and expenditure growth. 7.4.5 Column C recognises that part of a centre’s turnover growth will be attributable to turnover efficiencies over time. 7.4.6 Column D considers the overall change in turnover from each centre as a result of the application proposals, based upon the trade draw assumptions discussed earlier, and included at Table 14 of Appendix 3. 7.4.7 Column E represents the adjusted growth in turnover of the centre, taking into account the anticipated impact of the proposed extension. All centres still see a growth in turnover. 7.4.8 Column F models the overall net effect of the identified comparison retail commitments and aspirations. Turnover attributable to commitments has been assigned to centres within the catchment area according to a number of assumptions: • Like affects like, i.e. centres with a similar range, type and amount of retail floorspace will compete with each other. Where comparison floorspace is proposed within a foodstore, an assessment of competing in-centre and out-of-centre foodstores has been undertaken to inform the likely trade draws from foodstores not within the identified centres; • Distance, based on the assumption that generally consumers will seek to use the closest comparable facility; • Brand loyalty, whereby customers will choose to shop at a particularly destination, e.g. a particular brand of foodstore; and • Where the commitments have been accompanied by a retail impact assessment, the trade draw assumptions provided have been included. 7.4.9 Where a future development aspiration is identified and no floorspace or turnover figures are provided, research has been undertaken to identify the likely quantum of floorspace within each scheme. Similarly, where net sales areas and turnover figures are not stated, a 75% gross to net figure has been applied and sales densities sourced from Verdict, Mintel or applications approved by the Local Authority. All turnover figures have been rebased to the correct price base. Table A12 of Appendix 5 demonstrates the assumed trade draw impacts of all commitments and aspirations based upon the above baseline assumptions. 7.4.10 The result of this analysis is that the turnover of the centre in which the commitment is located increases and the turnover of other centres decreases proportionally, depending on where the commitment is expected to draw trade from. 7.4.11 Importantly, Table 26 above indicates that each centre continues to experience growth in its actual turnover from the base to forecast year period, irrespective of the cumulative effect of the application proposals and commitments/aspirations. 7.4.12 Table A13 in Appendix 5 shows that Swanley and the Lakeside Retail Park are the only centres in the catchment area which will experience a minor decrease in turnover derived from the catchment area in 2022, of approximately 3.5%. Both of these centres are still showing growth with the Bluewater proposals in place and therefore this impact is attributable to other commitments in the study area, principally from the proposals by Tesco at Lowfield Street and the extension of Lakeside Shopping Centre.
Gravesham Borough Council
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7.5 Effect on Investment within the Catchment 7.5.1 The above analysis has demonstrated that there is sufficient expenditure available within the study area for both planned commitments and the proposed extension of Bluewater. 7.5.2 As described above, Bluewater is part of a designated network of shopping centres, where further retail development is acceptable in principle, subject to a number of factors, including the impact on neighbouring centres. The assessment above has demonstrated that the effect of the proposals is spread over a very wide catchment area and there is significant available expenditure within the catchment area to account for the proposals and additional growth. 7.5.3 It is considered that the assessment carried out is conservative and takes an ultra-robust approach, for example, with regard to growth in turnover through floorspace efficiency. 7.5.4 Notwithstanding these overall conclusions, the most significant commitments within the study area are discussed briefly below.
Lakeside Shopping Centre 7.5.5 In August 2012, Lakeside Shopping Centre was granted planning consent for an extension comprising 39,691sqm of net comparison retail floorspace. Like Bluewater, Lakeside is a major comparison retail destination that operates on a regional scale. 7.5.6 Despite being a short distance from Bluewater, the two destinations are separated by the River Thames, being accessible to one another via the tolled Dartford Crossing. To some extent, the River acts as a physical barrier that curtails the respective retail catchments belonging to each centre. This is evidenced in the retail assessment accompanying the approved Lakeside planning application, which contained only one survey zone from thirteen to the south of the River Thames, whilst demonstrating a limited trade draw to the proposals from this zone. Notwithstanding this, there will inevitably be some overlap of each centre’s respective catchment areas. 7.5.7 The expenditure analysis undertaken above demonstrates that there is more than sufficient capacity within the study area to allow for both the Lakeside extension and the proposals, with an overall growth in turnover of 37.2% predicted for Lakeside, which is the third greatest in the study area, next to Dartford and Sittingbourne, which are both soon to benefit from major redevelopment proposals.
Ebbsfleet Valley 7.5.8 The development of the Ebbsfleet Valley is an important economic driver and will provide a new business district focussed around the international station alongside new homes, retail and leisure facilities. The proposals will include an element of comparison retail floorspace that will largely be supported by the increased residential and working population associated with the development. The original outline consent for Ebbsfleet was restricted to 15,500sqm of class A1 retail uses (in Station Quarter north and south). 7.5.9 The above demonstrates that there is significant growth in the study area, even accounting for the extension proposals. Furthermore, 50% of the expenditure from Bluewater’s catchment area is currently being spent on centres outside of the catchment area and significant development proposals, such as that at Ebbsfleet will help retain more expenditure within the study area, through locating shops closer to where people live and work. 7.5.10 The Economic Statement submitted with this application explains the regenerative benefits of retail proposals, and particularly how these have been experienced in practice at Bluewater. It is therefore anticipated that the development proposals will act as a catalyst to regeneration in the Ebbsfleet Valley. Gravesham Borough Council
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Lowfield Street Regeneration, Dartford 7.5.11 It is anticipated that the regeneration of the Lowfield Street site in Dartford will significantly enhance the vitality and viability of the town and transform a high number of vacant units into active uses. The scheme benefits from planning consent approved in November 2011, subject to the satisfactory completion of a section 106 agreement. The application proposals will reinforce Bluewater’s position as a specialist regional centre. By contrast, the Lowfield Street regeneration will provide a foodstore and additional retail units that will meet the day-to-day and weekly shopping needs of a more localised catchment. In accordance with the aims of the Core Strategy, both schemes will work towards achieving a complimentary network of centres. It is not expected that the regeneration of the Lowfield Street site would raise the position of Dartford within the retail hierarchy to directly compete with Bluewater. The retail market served by the proposals will, therefore, be qualitatively different to that of the Bluewater proposals, and neither will adversely impact upon the other successfully being implemented. 7.5.12 The expenditure analysis undertaken above demonstrates that there is more than sufficient capacity within the study area to allow for both the Lowfield Street development and the application proposals, with an overall growth in turnover of 37.8% predicted for Dartford, the second greatest growth in the catchment area.
Proposed MSU Unit, Bluewater 7.5.13 It is anticipated that the recently approved extension for Topshop at Bluewater will be implemented considerably before the West Village proposals. Notwithstanding this, the scheme will be complementary to the existing retail offer within Bluewater, in addition to the extended West Village.
Hempstead Valley Shopping Centre Extension 7.5.14 As indicated by Venuescore (2011), Hempstead Valley Shopping Centre is provides a different type and scale of retail offer to Bluewater. The resultant catchments that each centre therefore serves will be largely different. Venuescore notes that Hempstead Valley is orientated towards the ‘lower middle’ retail market, with Bluewater, by contrast, being targeted towards the ‘upscale’ market. 7.5.15 The expenditure analysis undertaken above demonstrates that there is more than sufficient capacity within the study area to allow for both this development and the application proposals, with an overall growth in turnover of 13.2% predicted for the Hempstead Valley.
Town Centre/Milton Creek, Sittingbourne 7.5.16 The regeneration of the town centre/Milton Creek site is expected to greatly enhance the vitality and viability of Sittingbourne town centre. The scheme proposes a Tesco foodstore and additional comparison retail floorspace. Given the size of the proposals and quantum of floorspace proposed, it is expected that the scheme would serve the day to day and weekly shopping needs of a localised catchment area. By contrast, the Bluewater proposals comprise specialist comparison retail floorspace that would not normally be found in a town centre of Sittingbourne’s size and scale, thus reinforcing its position as a centre of regional importance within the retail hierarchy that would not be in direct competition with Sittingbourne. 7.5.17 Sittingbourne is showing by far the greatest growth in turnover over the study period, with an anticipated 85% growth, largely as a result of the redevelopment proposals. It is also noteworthy that Sittingbourne is located to the far west of Bluewater’s catchment area, in Zone 6, from which the proposals are expected to draw only 2.21% of its turnover. Accordingly, it is considered that the two schemes could successfully co-exist without any significant adverse impacts. Gravesham Borough Council
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Former Civic Offices, Bexleyheath 7.5.18 The proposed redevelopment of the former Civic Offices for a Tesco foodstore is not considered directly comparable to the application proposals at Bluewater. The foodstore will serve main, secondary and top-up food needs on a more frequent basis and will comprise a complementary comparison offer that would not serve as a significant retail destination in its own right. The expenditure analysis undertaken above demonstrates that there is more than sufficient capacity within the study area to allow for both this development and the application proposals, with an overall growth in turnover of 16.1% predicted for Bexleyheath.
Chatham Docks 7.5.19 The proposed redevelopment of the former Chatham Docks will provide an employment-led, mixed-use scheme incorporating office space, education facilities, an ‘EventCity’, a hotel and numerous new residential units. The retail element is focussed on an Asda foodstore of up to 7,375sqm, with an additional 5,641sqm of retail, health and nursery uses. The foodstore is not directly comparable to the application proposals, providing comparison floorspace that will be complimentary to the main convenience offer. The expenditure analysis undertaken shows 14.3% growth in Chatham, accounting for commitments and the extension proposals at Bluewater. This is considered to be more than sufficient to allow both schemes to be implemented.
Former ABC Cinema, Tunbridge Wells 7.5.20 The redevelopment of the former ABC cinema within Tunbridge Wells will provide 3,310sqm of comparison retail floorspace. Given the significant distance between the site concerned and Bluewater, and noting the small scale of the unit in comparison to that of the Bluewater proposals, it is not considered that the proposals will be in direct competition or have an adverse effect on the implementation of the scheme. The expenditure analysis undertaken shows 9.9% growth in Tunbridge Wells, accounting for commitments and the extension proposals at Bluewater. This is considered to be more than sufficient to allow both schemes to be implemented.
Market Place, Swan Walk and Liberty Square, Romford 7.5.21 The proposed development within Romford town centre will provide, in comparison to the Bluewater proposals, a relatively small level of comparison retail floorspace. It is not considered that this level of floorspace will significantly alter the retail composition of the centre to the extent that it competes with Bluewater on a regional scale. Notwithstanding this, the two centres are separated by the River Thames which, to some extent curtails the extent of each centre’s retail catchment. The expenditure analysis undertaken above demonstrates that there is more than sufficient capacity within the study area to allow for both this development and the application proposals, with an overall growth in turnover of 6.4% predicted for Romford.
Whitgift Centre, Croydon 7.5.22 The proposals to regenerate the Whitgift centre in Croydon will provide a regional specialist shopping centre on a comparable scale to Bluewater. Croydon is located to the western extremity of the study area of this assessment, within Household Survey Zone 14. This peripheral location within the catchment will result in its actual catchment area being significantly different to that of Bluewater, more than likely extending considerably further to the west, south and north, and less so to the east. The expenditure analysis undertaken demonstrates that these is more than sufficient capacity within the study area to allow for both this development and the application proposals, with an overall growth in turnover of 12.5% predicted for Croydon. Gravesham Borough Council
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Heritage Quarter, Gravesend 7.5.23 The Heritage Quarter, Gravesend, comprises approximately 5.8 hectares that is targeted for investment into the town centre and includes an extension to the St George’s shopping centre. It has recently been subject to an application for retail led mixed use development (application reference: 20080696) that was refused by Gravesham Council on the grounds of height, bulk and massing. The proposals included between 7,000sqm and 8,500sqm of new comparison retail floorspace. A subsequent planning appeal was submitted and withdrawn. Following discussions with the Council, it was indicated that the principle of a retail-led scheme was acceptable and it is expected that a revised application will be submitted in the near future. 7.5.24 The previous proposals sought a mixed use development of the Heritage Quarter, to comprise retail and food and drink (A1-A5), offices (B1), a hotel (C1), residential (C3) church hall (D1) and associated car parking, amenity space and landscaping. The proposals represent an important regeneration of Gravesend town centre that will improve vacancy rates, augment the vitality and viability of the centre and enhance its overall offer and attractiveness. 7.5.25 The proposals will be complementary to the existing town centre and enhance its offer. Gravesend and Bluewater serve very different markets, as highlighted in the Venuescore analysis, attracting a different type of retailer and a different shopping experience. The analysis undertaken also shows that there is more than sufficient capacity for both proposals, with Gravesend turnover predicted to rise by 24.3% in the study period. Accordingly, it is considered that both the Heritage Quarter and Bluewater proposals could successfully co-exist, and neither would prejudice the successful implementation and operation of the other. 7.6 Effect on Town Centre Vitality and Viability 7.6.1 The above analysis has demonstrated that there is a net growth in viability and vitality of all centres in the catchment area, with the exception of the district centre of Swanley and the Lakeside Retail Park, which see a minor reduction in turnover, as a result of other commitments at Lakeside and Sittingbourne, rather than as a result of the proposals. 7.6.2 The assessment has shown that the effects of the proposed extension will be spread over a wide catchment area, with limited effect on any one centre. 7.6.3 This assessment has also shown that the centres closest to Bluewater serve a very different function, in terms of both retailers they attract, and shopper experience, to Bluewater. These centres also benefit from major redevelopment proposals, which will help to absorb a significant amount of the growth identified in this study. However, it is anticipated that a small amount of projected increases in turnover over the study period will be taken by the proposed extension. For the reasons given above, there is more than sufficient capacity to accommodate this and the anticipated growth through commitments. 7.6.4 On this basis, it is not considered that the vitality or viability of existing centres will be negatively affected by the proposals. 7.7 Impact on Local Consumer Choice 7.7.1 Paragraph 23 of the NPPF states that LPAs should promote competitive town centres that provide customer choice and a diverse retail offer. In conjunction with Lakeside, Bluewater is the most high profile retail destination within the catchment area, functioning on a regional level. 7.7.2 Bluewater performs an important economic function within the Thames Gateway and is a significant local employer. It is crucial, therefore, that the centre maintains its position as a specialist regional retail destination, particularly given increased competition from competing regional centres such as LakesideGravesham in Thurrock, and Westfield Stratford Borough City, the pressure of which Council is specifically identified in the Dartford Core Strategy and evidence base. 7.7.3 Through retaining more expenditure within its catchment, the proposals will help to reduce those shoppers travelling further afield for regional shopping facilities.
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7.7.4 The application proposals will improve and enhance Bluewater’s specialist retail offer at Bluewater, whilst benefitting local consumer choice for specialist comparison retail shopping and retaining local expenditure. 7.8 Summary 7.8.1 PPS4 Practice Guidance states at paragraph 7.29: “As with the factors to be taken into account when assessing need...it will be necessary to balance the desirability of maintaining and enhancing the turnover of existing facilities with the benefits of improved consumer choice, competition and access to new facilities. In this respect, there are no meaningful benchmarks of what constitutes an ‘acceptable’ level of trade diversion resulting from such proposals.” (our emphasis) 7.8.2 The analysis set out above illustrates that there continues to be positive growth throughout the study area. The turnover of the proposed extension is a very small percentage of total expenditure within the study area and there is more than enough available expenditure to allow Bluewater and other centres to grow. The impact of the proposals is therefore considered to be minimal. 7.8.3 The effect of the proposals will primarily be focussed on those centres that are on a comparable scale to Bluewater within the retail hierarchy and trading well, and consequently have more capacity to absorb change, and will not lead to any demonstrable harm to the vitality and viability of existing centres. 7.8.4 The redistribution of expenditure is considered to be appropriate to the scale of the proposals, in light of the existing comparison retail provision and established expenditure flows. This redistribution is considered important in contributing towards sustainable travel objectives. 7.8.5 It is expected that the proposed extension to Bluewater will bring significant benefits to the local area and the surrounding catchment, including improved consumer choice, high quality of design, injection of job opportunities, and the promotion of sustainable travel patterns to the development.
Gravesham Borough Council
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8 Conclusions 8.1 This retail impact assessment is submitted in support of outline planning application proposals for the development of an extension to the West Village at Bluewater. The proposals will comprise a maximum net increase of 30,500sqm comparison retail floorspace (gross internal area). 8.2 Planning policy within the Dartford Borough Council Core Strategy supports the retention and development of a network of complementary shopping centres, specifically including Bluewater within this network as a specialist comparison shopping centre. The support and enhancement of this network of centres is important in the context of the recession and the economic recovery of the country. The centres contained within the study catchment of this application have shown resilience to the effects of the economic recession, including in some instances high retailer demand and low vacancy rates. 8.3 Bluewater is facing increased competition from the recently opened Westfield Stratford City, the West End and Lakeside Shopping Centre in Thurrock. The latter has recently received planning permission for an extension comprising approximately 40,000sqm gross of retail floorspace. It is therefore important that Bluewater continues to evolve and enhance its retail offer to maintain its position within the retail hierarchy as a specialist comparison shopping destination. 8.4 A detailed review of the effects of the application proposals on existing centres has been provided within this report. This demonstrates that there are no significant adverse impacts arising from the scheme, whilst the positive benefits are significant and will broaden consumer choice within the catchment. 8.5 The proposals will draw new expenditure from existing comparable centres, predominantly within but also outside of the catchment in a manner that will create more sustainable shopping and travel patterns. Importantly, surrounding centres that are lower down the retail hierarchy, including Dartford and Gravesend, will experience a limited impact and will see real growth over the study period. Thus, the scale of the proposals is considered entirely appropriate and in accordance with the NPPF and the Dartford Core Strategy, which aim to promote competitive and complementary centres that provide customer choice, whilst encouraging sustainable transport patterns and development. 8.6 The extent of expenditure flows out of the catchment will be reduced, whilst a greater quality, choice and range of retail provision will be provided for local people. The proposals will, therefore, complement the existing retail provision within Bluewater and the surrounding catchment, and increase activity that will generate additional spending to the benefit of local businesses. 8.7 The application proposals are therefore considered to accord with retail planning policy at the national and local levels.
Gravesham Borough Council
appendix 1 Gravesham Borough Council
appendix 1 Catchment Plan
Gravesham Borough Council
Gravesham Borough Council Retail Imapct Assessment Appendix 1 | page 1
Catchment Plan
Gravesham Borough Council
page 2 | Retail Impact Assessment Appendix 1
Gravesham Borough Council
appendix 2 Gravesham Borough Council
appendix 2 Centre Health Checks
Gravesham Borough Council
Gravesham Borough Council Retail Imapct Assessment Appendix 2 | page 1
1 Centre Health Checks 1.1 Bluewater Retail Performance 1.1.1 A health check assessment of Bluewater has been undertaken to establish its current condition and role in the hierarchy. This has been informed by the Dartford Retail and Leisure Study (2010), the Dartford Borough Council Retail Background Paper (February 2011), information and analysis from both Experian Goad and Lend Lease, and by Quod’s own research and investigation.
Diversity of Uses and Retailer Representation 1.1.2 The Experian Goad Category Report (December 2011) identifies a total of 144,102m² floorspace at Bluewater across 334 units. Comparison retailers have a very strong presence in the centre, comprising 67% of the total units and 82% of total floorspace. Bluewater has a strong representation of national multiples, comprising 256 of the 334 units (77%) and representing a total floorspace of 132,591m². 1.1.3 The tables below provide a breakdown of the units and floorspace at Bluewater:
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Business
No of Units 225 15 14 56 7 17 334
% of Total 67.37 4.49 4.19 16.77 2.10 5.09 100
National 33.27 7.97 13.47 21.88 10.94 12.13 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Units at Bluewater, Source: Experian Goad Dec 2011
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Business
Floorspace 118,479 1,031 1,979 17,587 1,347 3,679 144,102 (m2)
% of Total 82.22 0.72 1.37 12.20 0.93 2.55 100
National 36.79 14.28 7.16 22.65 8.33 10.08 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Floorspace at Bluewater, Source: Experian Goad Dec 2011 1.1.4 There is a limited presence of convenience retailing at Bluewater, comprising just over 4% of total units and 0.72% of total floorspace, albeit this excludes the modest amount of convenience floorspace at the food halls within Marks and Spencer and John Lewis. 1.1.5 The number of units and total floorspace within the service, leisure and financial and business categoriesGravesham is below the national average, Boroughindicating the dominance Councilof comparison floorspace at Bluewater. Although non-comparison goods comprise only a small proportion of total floorspace, they complement Bluewater’s comparison offer, increasing the mix of uses and contributing towards the vitality and viability of the centre.
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1.1.6 Bluewater is broadly triangular in shape, with an anchor department store at each corner – John Lewis, Marks and Spencer and House of Fraser. Each is connected by three distinct malls. The Guildhall provides mainly higher-end fashion retail, The Rose Gallery is more family focussed, with some major high street retailers, whilst Thames Walk offers more high street fashion, cafes and entertainment uses. 1.1.7 Of the 225 comparison units at Bluewater, 122 (54%) are classified within the clothing and footwear category. The centre is considered to be a ‘fashion forward’ centre geared towards the upper end of the retail market (Venuescore, 2011). It serves a quantitatively different retail market to neighbouring centres such as Dartford, Gravesham and Chatham. The closest comparable regional shopping centres to Bluewater are Lakeside and Westfield Stratford City, both of which have an above average fashion orientation. 1.1.8 A range of leisure uses within Bluewater add to the customer experience and are predominantly contained within three ‘villages’ that extend from the main malls. The Wintergarden provides family dining, including McDonalds, Pizza Hut and Nandos among others, whilst the West Village orientates itself towards higher order leisure operators, including Zizzi, Pizza Express and Carluccio’s. 1.1.9 The Plaza is a more media focussed leisure environment, including a mix of restaurants, performance space and a cinema. The leisure offer at The Plaza has recently been enhanced with the construction of Glow, a dedicated events and exhibition venue. 1.1.10 Bluewater has a limited homeware offer, partly because of a shortage of suitably sized units and limited customer collection facilities.
Retailer Demand 1.1.11 Demand for retail and leisure floorspace at Bluewater remains strong from both existing and potential new retailers. In addition to demand from brands established in the UK market, Bluewater has become a showcase venue for new retailers, particularly for retailers entering the UK market for the first time and existing retailers experimenting with a new concept of store design. 1.1.12 However, Bluewater is constrained by the overall availability of space, particularly with regard to larger units. There are known requirements from a number of international brands which cannot be fulfilled because of constraints on the overall availability of space. The recent permission for a two storey rear extension to units U021 and U028A for Topshop has provided a short term opportunity for Bluewater to meet its ambition for larger stores, although the prospect of further similar applications is likely to prove very difficult to achieve given the configuration of the centre. 1.1.13 Since Bluewater opened, there has been a significant change in retail requirements with several operators needing much larger mini-anchor stores to allow a full range of goods to be sold. Despite a small number of vacancies to smaller units during the recession, demand remains for much larger units with retailers having an average requirement of c. 5-7,000 ft², and many requirements of between 15 and 20,000 ft². By way of comparison, Bluewater is of a similar size to Westfield London (c. 1.6msqft). The average unit size at Bluewater, excluding the three anchor stores, is 2,970sqft. The average size of a retail unit on the same basis in Westfield London is 4,600sq.ft. 1.1.14 The 2010 Dartford Retail Study notes that, as of December 2009, Bluewater had 48 recorded retailer requirements comprising 28 comparison operators, five convenience operators, 14 service operators and one unidentified operator. In total, operators required between 14,795m² and 36,887m² of floorspace. It is our understanding that this demand has remained broadly the same since the publication of the Borough Retail Study. 1.1.15 The Dartford Core Strategy notes that Bluewater will need to evolve to maintain and enhance its position as a specialist comparison retail destination. This is particularly important given increased competition from Lakeside Shopping Centre in Thurrock, which has recently been granted planning consent for an extension comprising c. 39,000sqm net of comparison floorspace, and the recent openingGravesham of Westfield Stratford City. It is also Borough noted that there is an intention Council to redevelop the Whitgift Shopping Centre in Croydon by either Westfield or Hammerson. 1.1.16 In addition, it is likely that competing regional/metropolitan centres across the catchment will attract significant town centre developments in accordance with the respective aims of their policy frameworks. This will further increase the pressures and competition to Bluewater.
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Vacancies 1.1.17 The Experian Goad Category Report (December 2011) identifies the vacancy rates within Bluewater by number of units and total floorspace. This is summarised below:
Number of Units/ % of Total National Average (%) Total Floorspace (m2)
Number of Vacant Units 17 5.09 12.13
Vacant Floorspace (m2) 3,679 2.55 10.08
Vacancy Rates in Bluewater, Source: Experian Goad December 2011 1.1.18 Unlike many established centres, Bluewater does not have an secondary or tertiary retail areas where vacancies are typically higher. The vacancy rate is very low, consistent with its market profile and lack of space to meet demand.
Shopping Rents 1.1.19 Paragraph 6.17 of the Dartford Retail Study (2010) notes that in 2009, Prime Zone A rents in Bluewater were £4,306 per sqm. The Valuation Office Property Market Report (2011) confirms that this dropped marginally to £4,250 per sqm in 2011. The table below provides a comparison for Prime Zone A rents for the centres closest to Bluewater.
Centre Prime Zone A rents
Bluewater £4,250 per sqm
Dartford £430 per sqm (2009 rents)
Medway Towns (Rochester, Chatham, £850 per sqm Gillingham, Strood and Rainham)
Prime Zone A Retail Rents, Source: Property Market Report 2011, Dartford CRLS
Commercial Yields 1.1.20 Yields in Bluewater remained around 5% for the four year period leading up to the Dartford Retail Study (2010). As far back as 2000, yields have only been as high as 6%. This indicates that Bluewater has been consistently ranked as one of the strongest retail centres in the country.
Accessibility 1.1.21 Bluewater is located approximately one mile east of the M25. It is bounded by the B255 to its east, which connects to the A2 to the south, and Greenhithe to the north. The A2 provides further connections to the M2 approximately eight miles to the south east. To its immediate south, the site is bounded by the A296, linking it to Dartford to the west, and Gravesend to the east. There are circa three million people living within 43 minute drive time of Bluewater (Experian, 2011). 1.1.22 The proximity of Bluewater to these arterial routes means it is highly accessible by car. The centre itself benefits from approximately 13,000 free car parking spaces designed to be no more than a five minute walk from the nearest entrance. Parking spaces are designed to be 25% larger than standard spaces, and theGravesham centre includes a shop mobility schemeBorough inside. Council
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1.1.23 Bluewater also benefits from extensive public transport links. Greenhithe train station is approximately one mile to the north and benefits from trains arriving every 15 minutes from London and other North Kent towns. Fastrack bus services regularly connect Bluewater with both Greenhithe Station and Ebbsfleet International and domestic Rail Terminal. The latter provides high speed rail services to London taking circa 17 minutes. 1.1.24 Bluewater is well connected to surrounding centres via bus services, with some 20 bus routes operating over 60 services per hour from the Transit Centre, located adjacent to Marks & Spencer in the south- eastern corner of the site. This includes services connecting the centre with Rochester, Chatham, Gillingham, Maidstone, Sevenoaks and Tonbridge, with typical journey times ranging from 20 to 40 minutes. The Applicant estimates that 11% of all trips to Bluewater are undertaken by bus or coach, with 29% of bus passengers using the Transit Centre for changing services. 1.1.25 For residents living close to Bluewater in Stone or Greenhithe, there is the opportunity to either walk or cycle to the centre. Existing pedestrian routes through and around Bluewater are of good quality.
Pedestrian Flows 1.1.26 Due to the centre’s triangular design, Bluewater does not experience any strong bias in pedestrian flows as customers tend to flow in a single direction and circumnavigate the centre. The Wintergarden, The West Village and The Plaza are likely to be busier during meal times, whilst ‘Glow’ will be busier during events and performances. The Applicant estimates that, as of July 2010, Bluewater attracts more than 28 million visitors each year, with an average dwell time of around two and a half hours. This brings a significant economic benefit to the local economy.
Environmental Quality 1.1.27 Bluewater has a controlled, secure and managed environment geared towards providing shoppers with a pleasant environment to shop and relax. Entrances and linkages are well maintained and welcoming, whilst the external appearance of the centre is visually appealing with high quality stone work and landscaping. Externally, the grounds include a lake and play area set in natural landscaped grounds. 1.1.28 Internally, the centre is entirely pedestrianized and contains a number of murals and sculptures. The vast majority of retailers have attractive window displays, and the overall general environment is clean, tidy and well lit. The centre is a secure environment with a significant level of security and CCTV surveillance.
Economic Impact and Employment 1.1.29 It is widely accepted that Bluewater has played a key role in transforming the local economy and being an important catalyst for the development of the economic environment around Dartford, Gravesham and the wider Kent Thames Gateway. The centre employs approximately 7,500 people providing full time, part time and seasonal opportunities, and represents one of the largest employers in the Thames Gateway. Further details are provided in the Economic Statement submitted with the application. 1.1.30 It is acknowledged within the Dartford Retail Study (2010) that employment growth in Dartford has grown at four times the national average and, following the opening of Bluewater in March 1999, Dartford experienced a 25% drop in unemployment. This represents the largest single drop in the UK at the time (Dartford Retail and Commercial Leisure Study 2010, para 6.24). 1.1.31 Bluewater has launched two key initiatives to address skills, training and employment. A new apprentice scheme commenced in September 2009, which offers a select number of 16-24 year olds the opportunity to enhance their skills and experience relevant to retail in gaining a Level Two (NVG). Similarly, the ‘Learning Shop’ is a unique partnership between Lend Lease, North West Kent College and JobcentreGravesham Plus that provides formal training Borough and qualifications to Councilhelp local people access job opportunities.
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1.1.32 Bluewater has significantly boosted the local economy in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA) – the GVA associated with Bluewater is estimated at £240 million per year. 1.1.33 Paragraph 6.26 of the Dartford Retail Study (2010) further notes that Bluewater has employed 9,000 local contractors and contributed £60 million to local businesses. It has also contributed £2.25 million to local community and charitable contributions between 2000 and 2010. 1.1.34 Given the increased pressures on Bluewater from competing centres, and an inability at present to satisfy a demand for larger units, it is important for the centre to evolve and maintain its role as a specialist regional centre to ensure that its employment and economic impact can continue to benefit the Borough and surrounding areas.
Potential Capacity for Growth or Change 1.1.35 The Dartford Borough Council Core Strategy acknowledges that Bluewater now faces increasing competition from new and expanding regional-level centres, whilst an expected large population increase locally will heighten demand for shopping and leisure facilities. Future local capacity is identified at Bluewater, with any future proposals required to maintain and support Bluewater’s role as a specialist regional comparison centre and any further capacity to be assessed in terms of impact on existing centres and regional considerations. 1.1.36 Bluewater is identified as a Key Development site within the Ebbsfleet to Stone Priority Area (Core Strategy, Diagram 5). Currently, it is recognised that Bluewater is isolated from the local community as a result of its topography and the absence of development to its east and south. Across the plan period, planned growth will change this context and integrate Bluewater firmly within the proposed east-west chain of development, including residential communities and mixed use developments. The continuing ability of Bluewater to evolve to meet market expectations during this time is critical in maintaining its economic benefits.
Summary 1.1.37 Bluewater is one of the most successful regional shopping centres in the UK and has contributed to the transformation of the wider Thames Gateway area. It is primarily a comparison goods destination, anchored by three department stores and dominated by national multiples, although it is complemented by leisure and convenience uses that contribute to the overall Bluewater experience. These include a cinema, a performance and events venue at ‘Glow’, and numerous restaurants and cafes. 1.1.38 Vacancy levels within the centre have remained historically low, and there is significant demand for further retailer representation, particularly for larger units within the centre. In the medium to longer term these requirements cannot be met at present due to the configuration of the centre, and the average size of retail units is considerably smaller than that of competing regional centres, such as Westfield Stratford City. It is a concern that should Bluewater not evolve to meet this retailer demand, its position as a specialist comparison retail destination within the retail hierarchy could be threatened in light of increased competition in surrounding Boroughs, particularly at Lakeside in Thurrock and Westfield Stratford City. If Bluewater cannot maintain its status as a premier comparison centre, there is a risk that it would compete more with local centres. 1.1.39 Bluewater is a key development site that will be integral to future growth within the Ebbsfleet to Stone Priority Area. It is vital that Bluewater evolves to meet market expectations and continues to perform at the highest level. 1.2 Dartford Town Centre Retail Performance 1.2.1 DartfordGravesham is a sub-regional centre located Boroughapproximately five miles toCouncil the west of Bluewater, within the Borough of Dartford. The following section sets out a health check assessment of Dartford Town Centre, undertaken to establish its current condition and role in the retail hierarchy. This has been based upon findings within the Dartford Retail and Leisure Study (2010) and Retail Background Paper (2011), information and analysis from Experian Goad, and on Quod’s own site research and investigations.
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Diversity of Uses and Retailer Representation 1.2.2 The Experian Goad Category Report (August 2011) for Dartford identifies a total of 92,374m² floorspace across 365 units. The retail offer within the town is generally aimed towards the lower-to- mid end of the market (Venuescore, 2011). The town has a number of national multiples, most of which are situated on the pedestrianised High Street and within the Orchards and Priory Shopping centres. National multiples in Dartford represent 124 units and comprise 57,089m² of the total floorspace, including Marks & Spencer, Argos and TK Maxx. 1.2.3 Comparison retailers are the most represented retail floorspace within Dartford, although they do not have a particularly strong presence in the town in terms of the number of units (25.75%), which can be attributed to the proximity of Dartford to Bluewater and other competing centres, including Gravesend and Bexleyheath. The quantum of comparison floorspace is, however, above the national average (41.85%). This can, in part, be attributed to a number of larger and more modern units within Prospect Place Retail Park. 1.2.4 The main convenience offer within the town centre comes from two important anchors; Sainsbury’s in the Priory Shopping Centre and Waitrose in the Orchards Shopping Centre. Convenience retailers comprise 6.3% of total units and 10.7% of total floorspace, both of which are slightly below the respective national averages. The Sainsbury’s store was found by the 2010 Dartford Retail Study to be trading above benchmark levels by approximately £14.6m (para. 5.12). 1.2.5 The mainstream retail offer is complemented by two weekly markets within the town, selling a wide range of food and non-food goods. A number of speciality markets are also held throughout the year. 1.2.6 The tables below summarise a breakdown of the floorspace and units at Dartford:
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Other Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Retail Business
No of Units 94 23 39 1 75 48 85 365
% of Total 25.75 6.30 10.68 0.27 20.55 13.15 23.29 100
National 33.27 7.97 13.47 0.15 21.88 10.94 12.13 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Units at Dartford. Source: Experian Goad August 2011
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Other Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Retail Business
Floorspace 38,657 9,876 4,757 130 18,423 6,633 13,89 92,37 (m2) 8 4
% of Total 41.85 10.69 5.15 0.14 19.94 7.18 15.05 100
National 36.79 14.28 7.16 0.11 22.65 8.33 10.08 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Floorspace at Dartford, Source: Experian Goad August 2011 1.2.7 Leisure formsGravesham 20.55% of the total number ofBorough outlets in Dartford, comprising Council cafes, restaurants, public houses and fast-food/takeaway outlets. 13.15% of units can be attributed to the financial and business sector, with numerous high street banks and estate agents present. 1.2.8 Dartford town centre has a range of other attractions in addition to shopping that are well used by the local population. These include the Orchard Theatre, Gala Bingo, Goodman Dance School, Princes Park Community Stadium and Next Generation Leisure Centre.
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Vacancies 1.2.9 The Experian Goad Category Report (August, 2011) identifies a total of 85 vacant units within Dartford:
Number of Units/ % of Total National Average (%) Total Floorspace (m2)
Number of Vacant Units 85 23.29 12.13
Vacant Floorspace (m2) 13,898 15.05 10.08
Vacancy Rates in Dartford, Source: Experian Goad August 2011 1.2.10 In comparison to the Dartford Retail Study (2010), which draws upon past Experian vacancy figures dated March 2009, the number of vacant units within the town centre has increased from 80 to 85, whilst the quantum of vacant floorspace has also increased from 10,823m² to 13,898m² across the same period. The 2010 Retail Study notes that the March 2009 vacancy rates had also increased from previous levels, highlighting an increase over time in empty retail property. 1.2.11 As part of Quod’s research and site investigations, the levels of vacant property within Dartford have been updated in accordance with the Experian Goad category report. Undertaken in September 2012, a total of 76 vacant units (20.8% of total units) were identified within the centre which provides some evidence that vacancy rates within Dartford have improved or at least stabilised in the period August 2011 to September 2012. 1.2.12 The Lowfield Street regeneration proposals, Dartford, were recently consented (application reference 11/00747/FUL) and around 40 of the 76 vacant retail units have been vacated along Lowfield Street in preparation for redevelopment. It is understood that the remainder of the land required for redevelopment will be subject to a CPO Inquiry, which is anticipated to commence shortly. The planning application includes A1, A2 and A3 uses and 231 residential units, business uses, community facilities and health uses and is principally focussed on a 6,612sqm Tesco foodstore, with circa 4,325sqm of comparison retail floorspace. 1.2.13 It is anticipated that the regeneration of the Lowfield Street site in Dartford will significantly enhance the vitality and viability of the town and transform a high number of vacant units into active uses. The scheme benefits from planning consent approved in November 2011, subject to the satisfactory completion of a section 106 agreement.
Retailer Demand 1.2.14 The 2010 Dartford Retail Study notes that, as of December 2009, Dartford town centre had 10 retailer requirements. Of these, seven were for comparison retailers and 3 for service retailers, with the demand being predominantly from mid-to-lower end retailers. This pattern of demand is to be expected, as high-end retailers will inevitably target comparison floorspace in Bluewater. The overall demand from comparison retailers within Dartford is estimated as being between 3,191m² and 15,840m². 1.2.15 The implementation of the Lowfield Street regeneration proposals will enhance the attractiveness of Dartford town centre to retailers. It is anticipated that the CPO Inquiry for this scheme will commence shortly. The proposals are anchored by a convenience store, which will be occupied by Tesco. There is therefore evidence of strong demand from the anchor tenant.
Shopping Rents 1.2.16 In 2009,Gravesham Prime Zone A retail rents in Dartford Borough were £430 per sqm, representingCouncil a 33% increase on levels in 2000 (Dartford Retail Study 2010, para. 5.18). During this period there was, however, a 20% decrease between 2008 and 2009, which reflects a national trend and is a likely consequence of difficulties in the current economic climate.
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1.2.17 Rental levels at 2009 within Dartford were lower than those being achieved in surrounding centres, including Bluewater, Gravesend and Bexleyheath. This is in part attributable to the lower-mid end of the market that Dartford’s retail offer is geared towards. It is also notable that, when comparing these centres, the overall percentage increase in rental levels between 2000 and 2009 was the greatest within Dartford.
Commercial Yields 1.2.18 The Dartford Retail Study states that yields in Dartford have been declining since 2004, indicating consistently improving compares well with the neighbouring centres. This indicates that despite low rental levels, Dartford is seen as a fairly good investment location with prospects that have been improving over time.
Accessibility 1.2.19 Dartford is located to the south east of London and has good road, bus and rail links. The town is bisected by the A226 which runs east to west, linking the town with Crayford and the A207 to the west, and the A296 and the A2 to the east. The M25 is located to the east of the town, running north to south. 1.2.20 Given the above road connections, the town is easily accessible by car. The centre benefits from a wide range of public car parks offering c. 3,138 spaces, although the 2010 Retail Study notes that the busiest of these facilities operate very close to, or at capacity and queuing is sometimes a problem. 1.2.21 The town has a central bus terminal that provides links to surrounding settlements and outlying rural areas. Fastrack bus services also operate within the town which provide frequent and reliable bus services, linking Dartford with major existing and new developments including the International Rail Terminal at Ebbsfleet, Bluewater, new residential communities and business parks. 1.2.22 Dartford benefits from a rail station, which is separated from the town centre by a dual carriageway. Pedestrian links exist via a footbridge that connects the station to the town. Train services connect Dartford with central London in approximately 45 minutes, in addition to providing connections to surrounding centres. Despite a high number of trains and passengers passing through the rail station on a daily basis, the building itself it small and there are a limited number of services available.
Pedestrian Flows 1.2.23 The most accurate and recent information available concerning pedestrian flows is contained within the Dartford Retail and Leisure Study (2010), which carried out surveys of pedestrian footfall as part of the evidence base for the Dartford Town Centre Area Action Plan. This found the highest pedestrian flows to occur along the High Street between No’s 33-35 and One Bell Corner, as well as at the entrance to the Priory Centre on Lowfield Street. The Thursday market has a significant influence on footfall and pedestrian flows, attracting increased numbers at the entrance to the Priory Centre. Across the survey period, higher levels of footfall (c.38%) were recorded in the Priory Centre than in the Orchards Centre. During Quod’s site investigations, it was noted that these general patterns of pedestrian flows appear to remain relevant, with the bus station on Market Street also attracting high footfall levels.
Environmental Quality 1.2.24 Dartford town centre contains a variety of building types that influence its aesthetic appearance. The majority of the town centre is within a Conservation Area that protects the historical core around the High Street and includes several attractive older buildings. By contrast, several buildings built during the post-war period somewhat detract from the visual quality of the architecture. 1.2.25 Central GraveshamPark, located to the south-east of theBorough town centre, provides an Council attractive and welcoming open space. There are also several notable features including a mural at the western end of the High Street.
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1.2.26 Pedestrian experience is enhanced through the pedestrianisation of a large proportion of the town centre and the inclusion of a wide High Street with varied paving styles and street furniture. Along the High Street, several benches and hanging baskets are situated that improve the visual attractiveness. Given the high vacancy rates, several shop fronts appear run down and unattractive in appearance, although the main area of vacancy is on Lowfield Street, which will be addressed by the town centre redevelopment proposals.
Safety and Occurrence of Crime 1.2.27 The 2010 Retail Study highlights that Dartford has a vibrant, if somewhat limited evening economy that is largely centred on the pubs in the town centre. This results in some instances of alcohol-related crime during the evening, particularly around the intersection of Market Street, High Street and Spital Street. Paragraph 5.38 notes that alcohol-related crime within Dartford town centre is declining, largely due to the effective use of CCTV and targeted initiatives.
Employment 1.2.28 Dartford is a significant employer within the retail and leisure sector, with an average of 1,900 people employed annually within the retail sector between 2000 and 2007 (Dartford Retail and Leisure Study, 2010, para. 5.39).
Customer Views and Behaviour 1.2.29 Dartford Council’s 2010 Retail Study utilises the findings of previous research into customer views and behaviour. Although forming part of a previous retail study published in 2006, its key findings provide the most up to date and extensive information available. Importantly, it was found that: • Food shopping (30%) was the most popular purpose of visit, followed by non-food shopping (19%) and financial services (16%); • The majority of respondents chose Dartford due to convenience, either being close or easy to get to; • 52% of respondents visited at least once a week for non-food shopping; • 31% of respondents said that they liked nothing or very little about Dartford town centre, indicating a high level of dissatisfaction with the town centre. The main reason for disliking the town centre were the poor range of shops (37%) and dirty streets (13%).
Potential Capacity for Growth or Change 1.2.30 Dartford town centre is identified as a Key Development Site within the Core Strategy. Across the plan period, it is planned to grasp opportunities within the town centre to address quantitative and qualitative deficiencies in retail and leisure provision. Policy CS2 in particular directly addresses the requirements to revitalise the town centre and improve its range of attractions and its environment. 1.2.31 As highlighted earlier, a large proportion of Dartford’s vacant units lie along, or within the vicinity of, Lowfield Street, which will be addressed by the redevelopment proposals. This comprises one of several opportunity areas identified within the town centre as part of the Core Strategy. 1.2.32 It is anticipated that the above development will significantly improve the vacancy rate within the town centre, providing an architecturally interesting and attractive development that will enhance the vitality and viability of the town.
Summary 1.2.33 Overall,Gravesham it is evident from both the 2010 DartfordBorough Retail Study and Quod’sCouncil own research that Dartford is performing at an average level and is orientated towards the lower-to-mid end of the retail market. It serves as an important destination for its surrounding local catchment population. It’s convenience goods function is about to be enhanced by a large scale Tesco led redevelopment.
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1.2.34 Despite the effects of the economic recession, which have been felt nationally, the centre attracts reasonable levels of footfall and has attracted and retained national multiple retailers within its target retail market. Yields have also been gradually falling, showing continued signs of investor confidence. The town’s retail offer is complemented by two weekly markets and several speciality markets. 1.2.35 The environmental quality of the centre would benefit from some investment and vacancy levels are above the national average, although this will largely be addressed through the town centre redevelopment scheme. Whilst demand for retail floorspace exists during an economic recession, there is not a substantial requirement. 1.2.36 Future regeneration will help lift the overall perception and environment. The town centre is identified as a Key Development Site within the Core Strategy, and development is sought across the plan period to address both quantitative and qualitative deficiencies in retail and leisure provision. It is anticipated that the regeneration of the Lowfield Street site will provide one such opportunity to achieve this, by transforming an area within the centre that is currently characterised by numerous vacant units and a poor environmental quality. 1.3 Gravesend Town Centre Retail Performance 1.3.1 Gravesend is a sub-regional centre located approximately 6 miles to the east of Bluewater, within the Borough of Gravesham. It performs an important role as a shopping destination for its local catchment population. 1.3.2 The following section sets out a health check assessment of Gravesend Town Centre to establish its current condition and role in the retail hierarchy. This has been based upon findings within the ‘Health Check Update of Gravesend Town Centre’ prepared by Gravesham Borough Council in May 2011, information and analysis from Experian Goad, and Quod’s research and investigation.
Diversity of Uses and Retailer Representation 1.3.3 The Experian Goad Category Report (May 2011) for Gravesend identifies a total of 83,807m² retail floorspace across 470 units. The retailer offer within the town is generally aimed towards the ‘down’ market (Venuescore, 2011). Gravesend has a wide range of national multiples, accounting for 104 units and 35,136m² of floorspace. This includes Debenhams, Marks & Spencer, BhS and Argos. 1.3.4 Comparison retailers are the most represented retail floorspace within Gravesend, although the number of units falls below the national average. The quantum of comparison floorspace is, however, above the national average, which can be attributed to a number of larger comparison units within the town. 1.3.5 In comparison to research undertaken by Roger Tym and Partners in 2010, the number of comparison retail units has decreased from 163 to 132 across this period, whilst the quantum of comparison floorspace has also decreased from 48,423m² to 34,476m². 1.3.6 Convenience retail provision in Gravesend is below the national average. This is in contrast to the levels of convenience provision in 2010, which Roger Tym and Partners reported as being above the national average, with a strong representation in the grocery and frozen foods sector. The main convenience offer within the town centre comprises a Tesco metro store on New Road. Convenience retailers comprise 5.53% of total units and 7.14% of total floorspace. 1.3.7 The tables below summarise a breakdown of the floorspace and units within Gravesend:
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Business No of UnitsGravesham 132 26 Borough66 95 57 Council94 470 % of Total 28.09 5.53 14.04 20.21 12.13 20 100
National 33.27 7.97 13.47 21.88 10.94 12.13 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Units at Gravesend. Source: Experian Goad May 2011
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Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Business
Floorspace 34,476 5,983 7,191 16,33 8,296 11,529 83,807 (m2) 2
% of Total 41.14 7.14 8.58 19.49 9.9 13.76 100
National 36.79 14.28 7.16 22.65 8.33 10.08 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Floorspace at Gravesend, Source: Experian Goad May 2011 1.3.8 The mainstream retail offer is complemented by a large number of health and beauty outlets, and a provision of financial and business services that is above the national average.
Vacancies 1.3.9 The Experian Goad Category Report (May, 2011) identifies the following vacancy rates within Gravesend:
Number of Units/ % of Total National Average (%) Total Floorspace (m2)
Number of Vacant Units 94 20 12.13
Vacant Floorspace (m2) 11,529 13.76 10.08
Vacancy Rates in Gravesend. Source: Experian Goad May 2011 1.3.10 In total 94 units are vacant, equating to a vacancy rate of 20% which is above the national average of 12.13%. The centre has approximately 11,529m² of vacant retail floorspace, equating to 13.76% of the total floorspace which is above the national average of 10.08%. Quod’s site investigations and research undertaken in September 2012 found 92 vacant units (19.57% of total units), indicating a slight drop in vacant property levels. A further unit at 22 Thamesgate Shopping Centre was undergoing renovation in anticipation of its opening as Burger King. 1.3.11 The Gravesend Town Centre Health Check (2011) notes that 15.2% of units and 9.5% of floorspace were vacant in December 2010, with the majority of vacant units being located to the periphery, and the retail ‘core’ of the town centre being well occupied. During the period leading up to the latest Goad survey, vacancy rates have therefore increased by approximately 5% of the number of units and 4% of total floorspace. This suggests a somewhat falling retailer confidence in the centre and a supply of retail units that is outstripping demand. 1.3.12 Further to Quod’s site investigations, a concentration of several vacant units is evident within the proposed Heritage Quarter site, in respect of which Gravesham Council have advised that a revised planning application is expected in the near future for its redevelopment following the refusal of a previous application. It is expected that this will reduce vacancy levels within the town and improve the overall vitality and viability of the centre.
Retailer Demand 1.3.13 The Gravesend Town Centre Health Check (2011) notes an increase in retailer requirements between April 1999Gravesham and April 2007 that is subsequently Borough followed by a decline Council in requirements. This pattern is reflective of a national trend that can be attributed, in part, to the effects of the economic recession that are being felt within numerous centres.
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1.3.14 As of November 2008, there were 16 requirements for retail floorspace in Gravesend. This figure fell to 3 requirements by 2011, none of which were for A1 floorspace. The three requirements include Papa John’s Pizza (A5), Mr Bean Coffee House (A3) and Burger King (A5) (Gravesend Town Centre Health Heck, paragraph 2.26). 1.3.15 Whilst low demand for retail floorspace is reflective of a national trend during the economic recession, by way of comparison Gravesend has fewer requirements than surrounding centres, including Dartford and Bluewater. This low demand for town centre retail floorspace is reflective of the quality and size of floorspace available.
Shopping Rents 1.3.16 In 2009, retail rents in Gravesend were £484 per sqm per annum (Gravesend Town Centre Healthcheck, 2011, para. 2.29), representing an overall increase on rents in 2000. During this period there was a steady decline post 2008 which reflects a national trend and is a likely consequence of the difficulties in the current economic climate. 1.3.17 Although marginally higher than Dartford, rents in Gravesend remain lower than those rents in surrounding centres including Chatham, Maidstone, Tunbridge Wells and Bexley. This is in part attributable to the lower end of the market that Gravesend currently serves and its more restricted catchment.
Commercial Yields 1.3.18 Yields in Gravesend have steadily improved since 2000, indicating that investment prospects for the centre are consistently improving over time. The latest figures available within both the Gravesend Town Centre Health Check (2011) (Figure 2.5) and the Dartford Retail and Leisure Study (2010) (Table 5.5) indicate yields in 2008 of 6.25%. This is comparable with surrounding centres including Dartford, Chatham and Bexleyheath 1.3.19 The Valuation Office Agency (VOA) stopped issuing yield data in 2008 and we are not aware of any other published data for yield information. However, it should be noted that the Gravesend Health Check (2011) expects that yields will be significantly weaker since the economic downturn within both Gravesend and those surrounding centres. If this is the case, it could potentially jeopardise the ability of Gravesend to attract investment and deliver growth in retail floorspace.
Pedestrian Flows 1.3.20 The most up to date information on pedestrian footfall is available in the Gravesend Town Centre Health Check (2011). This indicates that in the period from April 2008 to the time of the study, pedestrian numbers increased as well as becoming more consistent from week to week. 1.3.21 Pedestrian flows provide a basic measure of the number of visitors to the town centre, and can be translated into potential economic transactions and, therefore, give an indication of the vitality of a town. The increase in pedestrian numbers and consistency demonstrates that Gravesend is performing reasonably well at least in maintaining its local catchment.
Accessibility 1.3.22 Gravesend is located to the east of Bluewater and has good road, bus and rail links. The town is bisected by the A226 which runs east to west, linking the town with Bluewater and Dartford to the west, and the M2 to the south-east. To the south of the town is the A2, which provides further connections to the M2 to the south-east, and the M25 to the west. 1.3.23 Given the above road connections, the town is easily accessible by car. The town centre benefits from a wide rangeGravesham of public car parks offering approximately Borough 1,578 car parking Council spaces, with a further 1,900 car parking spaces at the Imperial Retail Park.
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1.3.24 Gravesend has good bus and rail connections, with train services to London St Pancras taking 24 minutes. Two additional train services per hour to London St Pancras were introduced in December 2009 which has significantly improved the centre’s public transport accessibility, and has the potential to exert a positive effect on the vitality and viability of Gravesend through an increased number of connections and visitors.
Environmental Quality 1.3.25 Gravesend town centre has a well-defined retail core that comprises the St George’s and Thamesgate Shopping Centre and New Road, Windmill Street and High Street. The retail core is generally well maintained, clean and pedestrian friendly, although continued maintenance and management are important. Several hanging baskets, street seating and Olympic-themed decorations enhance the environmental quality of the central core. 1.3.26 The retail core contains a mix of traditional and modern buildings, with shop frontages generally well kept. The core area is pedestrianised during the day, which is positive for the environmental quality for visitors and improves safety. Within the peripheral areas, the general environmental quality decreases and some shop frontages are visually unattractive and in need of some attention. 1.3.27 To the north-west of the retail core is the Imperial Retail and Business Park, easily reachable on foot from the town centre. The park includes a number of bulky goods shops and associated car parking, with the overall environment being well maintained, pleasant and clean.
Potential Capacity for Growth or Change 1.3.28 A number of sites exist within Gravesend town centre that have the potential for growth, including the Heritage Quarter, Transport Quarter and Lord Street site. Each of these areas is currently underdeveloped. 1.3.29 The Heritage Quarter comprises approximately 5.8 hectares that is targeted for much needed investment into the town centre. It has recently been subject to an application for retail led mixed use development (application reference: 20080696) that was refused by Gravesham Council on the grounds of height, bulk and massing. A subsequent planning appeal was submitted and withdrawn. Following discussions with the Council, it was indicated that the principle of a retail-led scheme was acceptable and it is expected that a revised application will be submitted in the near future. 1.3.30 The Transport Quarter is proposed for a new public transport interchange with limited retail provision.
Safety and Occurrence of Crime The Gravesend Town Centre Health Check (2011) reports that the town has an above average level of crime, with the Gravesham North West – Pelham neighbourhood (which covers Gravesend town centre) reporting 29.1 crimes per 1,000 people in January 2011.
Summary 1.3.31 Gravesend town centre appears to be slightly underperforming at present - performing reasonably against a number of health check indicators but poorly against others. Despite being relatively weak, both shopping rents and commercial yields display an overall pattern of stability over time, whilst pedestrian flows appear to have become greater and more consistent in recent years. The central retail core displays an attractive pedestrian environment which reduces towards the periphery. 1.3.32 Notwithstanding this, there are indicators that the centre is beginning to suffer and if investment is not delivered in the next 5-10 years, the centre may decline as competing centres strengthen. At present, comparison floorspace provision within the centre is lower than the national average, and vacancy rates haveGravesham increased above the national averageBorough in recent years. DemandCouncil for retail floorspace in the centre is also low, and investment is considered important to enhance the health of Gravesend. However, the proposals for the Heritage Quarter represent a significant investment in the regeneration of the town and should help to raise investor confidence.
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1.3.33 The town is in an accessible location via car, bus and train services. Several sites existing within the town centre that have been identified for future development, in particular in the Heritage Quarter, where planned development would improve the vitality and viability of the centre and help transform vacant floorspace into an active use. 1.4 Chatham Retail Performance 1.4.1 Chatham is a sub-regional centre located approximately 14 miles to the east of Bluewater, within the Borough of Medway. It contains the highest concentration of retail and service units of any defined centre in Medway. It includes a core retail area which comprises the pedestrianised High Street, the Pentagon Shopping Centre, Railway Street, Military Street and an eastward extension to include a Tesco store at the Brook. 1.4.2 The following section sets out a health check assessment of Chatham, undertaken to establish its current condition and role in the retail hierarchy. This has been based upon findings within the Medway Council Retail Needs Study (2009), information and analysis from Experian Goad, and Quod’s research and site investigations.
Diversity of uses and Retailer Representation 1.4.3 The Experian Goad Category Report (April 2012) for Chatham identifies a total of 112,988m² retail floorspace across 425 units. The following tables summarise a breakdown of the floorspace by number of units and quantum of floorspace:
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Other Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Retail Business
No of Units 128 20 52 1 79 53 92 425
% of Total 30.12 4.71 12.24 0.24 18.59 12.47 21.65 100
National 33.27 7.97 13.47 0.15 21.88 10.94 12.13 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Units at Chatham. Source: Experian Goad April 2012
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Other Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Retail Business
Floorspace 49,805 12,514 7,516 195 17m4 9,253 16,221 112,988 (m2) 84
% of Total 44.08 11.08 6.65 0.17 15.47 8.19 14.36 100
National 36.79 14.28 7.16 0.11 22.65 8.33 10.08 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Floorspace at Chatham. Source: Experian Goad April 2012 1.4.4 Comparison retailers have the strongest presence in Chatham, reflecting the centre’s role as a major retail destination within Medway. Comparison retail comprises 30.12% of units compared to a national average of 33.27%, and 44.08% of total floorspace compared to a national average of 36.79%. A significant spectrum of comparison goods traders are represented, with many independents alongside key attractorsGravesham including Debenhams, Boots, Borough Primark and Argos. The centreCouncil is identified as serving the ‘lower middle’ retail market (Venuescore, 2011), and overall provides an adequate range of comparison goods with no major deficiencies in provision.
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1.4.5 Convenience retail provision is below the national average. This comprises 4.71% of units compared to a national average of 7.97%, and 11.08% of total floorspace compared to a national average of 14.28%. Chatham offers a range of convenience traders, including several small independents serving top-up shopping needs alongside national multiples including Tesco, The Brook and Sainsbury’s within the Pentagon Shopping Centre. 1.4.6 Of the 425 retail units within the centre, 137 (32%) represent national multiples that comprise a total floorspace of 56,309m² (Goad Category Report, April 2012). The majority of these are concentrated along the pedestrianised High Street, with the exception of a Tesco store and Gala Bingo premises. Independents are found throughout the shopping centre, occurring in greater proportions to the periphery but also having a presence within the prime retail area. Notwithstanding this, the Medway Retail Needs Study (2009) states that the centre lags behind other sub-regional centres in terms of the amount and type of national multiples represented (p53). 1.4.7 Chatham includes a wide range of retail service and leisure uses, including several cafes, restaurants and takeaways. A theatre, bingo hall and bowling alley are also present.
Vacancy Rates 1.4.8 The Experian Goad Category Report (April 2012) identifies vacancy rates within Chatham by number of units and total floorspace:
Number of Units/ % of Total National Average (%) Total Floorspace (m2)
Number of Vacant Units 92 21.65 12.13
Vacant Floorspace (m2) 16,221 14.36 10.08
Vacancy Rates in Chatham. Source: Experience Goad April 2012 1.4.9 Vacancy rates within Chatham are above the national average. The number of vacant units represents 21.65% of the total units, compared to a national average of 12.13%, whilst the total vacant floorspace represents 14.36% of the total, compared to a national average of 10.08%. The Medway Retail Needs Study (2009) notes that vacant units are found throughout the city centre, although they occur in greater proportions in peripheral areas. 1.4.10 In comparison with the Medway Retail Needs Study, which utilises Goad information from July 2007, vacancy rates within Chatham have increased in the period leading up to April 2012. The number of units has increased from 69 to 92, reflecting an increase from 17.4% of Chatham’s total units to 21.65%. 1.4.11 The increase in vacancy rates can largely be attributed to the economic climate, which has significantly impacted upon retail performance since 2008.
Retailer Demand 1.4.12 The most recent accessible data on retailer demand in Chatham town centre is published within the Chatham High Street/Best Street Area Masterplan, produced in partnership by Medway Council (November 2010). This document notes 8 retailer requirements for Chatham – Best Buy, Costcutter, HomeSense, Poundworld, River Island, Store Twenty One, Virgin Media and Waitrose. The space requirements of these retailers suggest a broad mix of required unit sizes will be required within Chatham. Overall the demand ranges from 60-111sqm (Virgin Media) to 2,787-5,574sqm (Best Buy). 1.4.13 NationallyGravesham the demand for retail premises Borough has reduced due to the effectsCouncil of the economic recession, and short term prospects for attracting new occupiers in most towns are poor. In the longer term, the demand for retail accommodation is expected to improve. Reflective of this national trend, Chatham has a low number of retailer requirements at present. It is also noted that there are a number of independent units within prime retail space, possibly indicating that demand by national multiples is low.
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Accessibility 1.4.14 Chatham has good road, bus and rail links. The town is located on the A2, offering connections to Gillingham and Sittingbourne to the east, and Rochester and Strood to the west. To the south of the town the A230/A229 provides a direct connection with the M2. 1.4.15 Accessibility by car is therefore a relative strength of Chatham. The town includes several car parks, with the main facilities comprising the Pentagon multi-storey centre (670 spaces) and Cross Street (560 spaces), which are supplemented by several smaller facilities. A park and ride system operates from Rochester Airport on Saturdays. 1.4.16 The centre is also easily accessible via public transport. A central bus station offers regular connections to local destinations and surrounding Medway towns, including Maidstone, Gravesend, Sittingbourne, Bluewater, Lakeside and Romford. Approximately 300m to the south-west of the core retail area lays Chatham train station, offering direct connections to local centres together with central London and Dover amongst other destinations.
Pedestrian Flows 1.4.17 Pedestrian movement around Chatham is unproblematic, given the pedestrianised nature of the majority of the centre. Along the periphery of the retail core, roads are open to vehicular traffic which is often frequent and heavy, although pedestrian crossings are provided for ease of movement for pedestrians. 1.4.18 During Quod’s site investigations footfall appeared to be relatively high throughout the central core, with the pedestrianised High Street and Pentagon Shopping Centre being the busiest. Increased pedestrian activity was also noted along Railway Street, connecting the core retail area with the railway station.
Environmental Quality 1.4.19 Chatham portrays a variable environmental quality throughout the city centre. Occupied retail units are generally well maintained with attractive frontages, particularly within the retail core. It is noted that the quality of some individual retail units does decline towards the periphery, particularly within vacant units. 1.4.20 The majority of the building stock in the centre appears somewhat dated, and would benefit from development that could improve the environmental quality of the centre and make better, more efficient use of available space. 1.4.21 The town centre contained numerous informative tourist boards detailing the history of Chatham, accompanied by sculptures including canons and ship anchors. The centre has also recently benefitted from a modern bus station surrounded by an attractive landscaped setting. 1.4.22 Street furniture is provided along the length of the pedestrianised High Street, including benches, phone boxes and street lighting. At the time of Quod’s visit there was, however, some evidence of graffiti and vandalism towards the peripheral areas of the centre.
Summary 1.4.23 Overall, it is evident from the Medway Retail Needs Study (2009), Experian Goad information and Quod’s own analysis and investigations that the retail sector in Chatham is concentrated on the lower end of the market, and there is a need to attract more national multiples. At present, the centre lags behind other sub-regional centres in terms of the amount and type of national multiples represented. Gravesham Borough Council
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1.4.24 The environmental quality in parts is variable, mixing attractive landscaping and public art with poorer kept areas. The town would clearly benefit from investment and rejuvenation to enhance its overall appearance. Notwithstanding this, there are some signs of recent investment and consent has been granted for the Chatham Docks redevelopment which will provide an employment-led, mixed-use scheme incorporating office space, education facilities, an ‘EventCity’, a hotel and numerous new residential units. The retail element is focussed on an Asda foodstore of up to 7,375sqm, with an additional 5,641sqm of retail, health and nursery uses. It is anticipated that this development will help increase investor confidence in the centre. 1.4.25 Demand for new retail floorspace is relatively low, accounting for eight retailers, whilst there are several independent retailers located in prime retail space, particularly in the pentagon centre, which suggests that demand from national multiples is low in the town. Notwithstanding this, the centre contains the highest concentration of retail and service units of any defined centre in Medway, and offers a range of comparison and service uses. Chatham is highly accessible via a range of transport methods, including public transport. 1.4.26 By means of its retail composition and position within the hierarchy, Chatham is quantitatively different from Bluewater. Whilst the centre does not perform a specialist comparison role, it serves an important function as a shopping for weekly and daily needs for a more localised catchment. The centre would benefit from some investment, and this is encouraged through, in particular, the ‘Chatham Centre and Waterfront Development Brief’ adopted by Medway Council (August 2008). 1.5 Bexleyheath Retail Performance 1.5.1 Bexleyheath is located approximately 8 miles to the west of Bluewater, located within the borough of Bexley. The main retail offer is focussed around the pedestrianised area of the Broadway and Market Place where there are two managed shopping centres. 1.5.2 The following section sets out a health check assessment of Bexleyheath Town Centre, undertaken to establish its current condition and role in the retail hierarchy. This has been based upon findings within the London Borough of Bexley Retail Capacity Study (October 2008), information and analysis from Experian Goad, and Quod’s site research and investigations.
Diversity of Uses and Retailer Representation 1.5.3 The Experian Goad Category Report (April 2012) for Bexleyheath identifies a total of 92,921m² floorspace across 302 units. The retail offer within the town is generally orientated towards the middle of the retail market, and the town has a below average orientation towards fashion (Venuescore, 2011). 1.5.4 Bexleyheath has a number of national multiples, most of which are situated within its two shopping centres - The Mall and Broadway Square, and along the pedestrianised area of the Broadway and Market Place. National multiples represent 124 units and comprise 57,070m² of the total floorspace. The Mall Shopping Centre is anchored by Marks & Spencer and BhS with a mix of other national multiple retailers. Broadway Square is a more modern streetscaped development. It is anchored by a Sainsbury’s store and includes a number of large modern units occupied by JD Sports, Poundland, Peacocks, Wilkinson and T K Maxx. 1.5.5 Comparison retailers are the most represented retail category within Bexleyheath, with both the number of units and quantum of floorspace exceeding the national average. Comparison units represent 35.1% of the total units within Bexleyheath, and are spread across the spectrum of retailer types. 1.5.6 The main convenience offer comprises the Sainsbury’s store which anchors Broadway Square Shopping Centre. An Aldi store is also present at Market Place, whilst an Asda is located to the west of the town centre along Graham Road/Broadway. In total, convenience retailers comprise 4.64% of total units and 12.69%Gravesham of total floorspace. Both of theseBorough figures are below the Council national average. It is noted, however, that the Experian Goad figures are based upon footprint floorspace only, and as such do not include a large food hall within Marks and Spencer.
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1.5.7 The tables below summarise a breakdown of the floorspace in Bexleyheath:
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Other Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Retail Business
No of Units 106 14 50 0 59 38 36 302
% of Total 35.10 4.64 16.56 0 19.54 12.25 11.92 100
National 33.27 7.97 13.47 0.15 21.88 10.94 12.13 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Units at Bexleyheath. Source: Experian Goad April 2012
Retail Comparison Convenience Retail Other Leisure Financial & Vacant Total Category Service Retail Business
Floorspace 37,486 11,789 7,581 0 22,297 6,810 6,958 92,921 (m2)
% of Total 40.34 12.69 8.16 0 24 7.33 7.49 100
National 36.79 14.28 7.16 0.11 22.65 8.33 10.08 100 Average (%)
Breakdown of Floorspace at Bexleyheath. Source: Experian Goad April 2012
1.5.8 Other uses in the town centre include a ten pin bowling alley located on Albion Road, several office buildings, library, cinema and bingo hall. The Council also occupies a large complex at the eastern end of the centre, and there is a popular farmer’s market on the first and third Thursday of every month. In combination, all of these additional uses generate footfall within the town and add to the vitality of the centre.
Vacancies 1.5.9 The Experian Goad Category Report (April 2012) identifies a total of 36 vacant units within Bexleyheath, summarised as follows:
Number of Units/ % of Total National Average (%) Total Floorspace (m2)
Number of Vacant Units 36 11.92 12.13
Vacant Floorspace (m2) 6,958 7.49 10.08
Vacancy Rates in Bexleyheath. Source: Experian Goad April 2012 1.5.10 In terms of empty units, Bexleyheath is performing well and has a vacancy rate that compares favourably with the national average. This suggests a relatively high retailer confidence in the town, particularly given the expected effects of the economic recession. 1.5.11 It is notedGravesham that vacancy rates have increased Borough from 12 vacant units in NovemberCouncil 2006 to 36 in April 2012 (London Boroughs of Greenwich and Bexley Retail Capacity Study, 2008, para 5.10). This is reflective of a national trend whereby the economic recession has led to increased vacancy rates. Importantly however, Bexleyheath has continued to perform well with vacancy rates continually below the national average despite these increased pressures.
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1.5.12 When reviewing the performance and attractiveness of the town centre, it is pertinent to consider whether there are any concentrations of vacancies, and thus areas that may require policy intervention. Notably, in July 2012 Bexley Council approved the redevelopment of the existing and vacant Civic Offices in Bexleyheath. The proposals include the provision of a new Tesco supermarket, retail units within Use Classes A1-A3 and a community facility.
Retailer Demand 1.5.13 The most recent data available on retailer demand is contained within the London Boroughs of Greenwich and Bexley Retail Capacity Study (2008, para. 5.12). This notes that, at the time of the study, Bexleyheath had 56 requirements from retail and leisure operators. This included 28 comparison retailers including high profile operators such as Debenhams, TJ Hughes and Bon Marche. There were also five convenience retailers, including Tesco which is known to have been granted planning consent, and 19 service operators including Costa Coffee, Strada and Pizza Hut. At the time of the study, the retail capacity report notes that Bexleyheath had the highest level of retailer demand of any of the centres reviewed. 1.5.14 It is likely that demand for retail floorspace has decreased since the study. It is anticipated that this will reflect national trends due to the economic recession, however, the available information coupled with below average vacancy rates indicates a healthy demand for floorspace in the town.
Shopping Rents 1.5.15 In 2007, Prime Zone A retail rents in Bexleyheath were £1,561 per sqm and have risen since 2004 figures. The Dartford Retail Study shows that these fell to £1,238 in 2009, but these figures indicate a strong retail performance particularly when compared to surrounding centres, for example Dartford and the Medway towns.
Accessibility 1.5.16 Bexleyheath is situated on the A207, which leads to Dartford and the M25 to the east. The town centre has a good provision of public car parking lying in proximity to the core retail area, with over 3,000 spaces in the town centre. It is noted that peripheral areas of the town suffer from traffic congestion during peak times. 1.5.17 Approximately 1km outside of the town centre lays Bexleyheath train station, which offers frequent train services between London and the South East. The town is also highly accessible via bus, containing a central bus area and providing numerous bus routes operating throughout the centre including routes to North Greenwich, Lewisham, Bromley, Orpington, Dartford and Bluewater. 1.5.18 Bexleyheath has a Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTAL) of 4, indicating the strength of these links.
Pedestrian Flows 1.5.19 During Quod’s site investigation, the highest levels of pedestrian flows were observed along the pedestrianised Broadway, with footfall also high within The Mall and The Broadway Shopping Centres.
Environmental Quality 1.5.20 The core retail area within Bexleyheath benefits from a large pedestrianised area with good quality paving, creating an attractive and pleasant shopping environment. The centre includes a clock tower and fountain which act as an attractive focal point that adds interest to the town. The general area is clean and well maintained, with litter and graffiti not appearing as a concern. 1.5.21 The MallGravesham Shopping Centre appears somewhat Borough dated and would benefit Council from rejuvenation. The Broadway Shopping Centre is more recent and of a more modern architectural design. The overall building style within the centre provides some architectural variation, and it is noted that units to the west of the centre are typically maintained to a lower standard and appear more dated than those in the central areas.
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Customer Views and Behaviour 1.5.22 The London Boroughs of Greenwich and Bexley Retail Capacity Study (2008) provides the most recent information on customer views and behaviour, based upon an in-centre survey dated November 2007. This noted that the main reasons for visit were food (29%) and non-food shopping (24%), whilst 42% of shoppers visited Bexleyheath due to its proximity to their home.
Summary 1.5.23 The above assessment indicates that Bexleyheath is a vital and viable centre. It comprises a broad range of retailers across a variety of sectors, and has vacancy rates that are below national averages. The centre is to be enhanced following the redevelopment 1.5.24 Rental levels and retailer demand are particularly high, especially in comparison to surrounding centres. The centre serves as an important shopping destination for the surrounding local catchment, and, despite the effects of the economic recession, the centre appears to have continued to perform well. 1.6 Regional/Metropolitan Centres 1.6.1 Bluewater is classified as a regional retail centre, and it is therefore pertinent to consider other regional and metropolitan centres within the catchment. Using information provided by Venuescore (2011), The table below provides a comparison of such centres located within the study area.
Centre Fashion Market Position Fashion Position Age Position Orientation Index Classification Classification Classification (Average = 100)
Bluewater 151 Upscale Fashion Forward Young
Lakeside 139 Upper Middle Fashion Forward Young
Bromley 131 Upper Middle Mainstream Mid
Maidstone 113 Middle Mainstream Mid
Tunbridge Wells 129 Upscale Traditional Old
Basildon 27 Down Traditional Young
Romford 116 Lower Middle Mainstream Young
Croydon 113 Middle Mainstream Young
Comparison of Regional/ Metropolitan Centres within the Catchment Area. Source: Venuescore (2011)
1.6.2 Even compared with larger, more distant centres, Bluewater’s role as a high end regional centre is apparent.
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1.6.3 Of the above, three regional/metropolitan centres are separated from Bluewater by the River Thames, including Lakeside Shopping Centre, Basildon and Romford. Despite the relative proximity of Bluewater to these destinations, particularly Lakeside, the river acts as a significant physical barrier and results in very different catchment areas. The retail composition of Lakeside is similar to Bluewater, being orientated towards the middle-upper end of the market and having an above average fashion orientation index (Venuescore 2011). Lakeside is a very busy and popular shopping destination, providing an attractive shopping environment to those visiting. It primarily contains comparison retail floorspace, and has recently been granted planning consent for an extension comprising c. 40,704m² net additional gross internal floorspace (Use Class A1-A5). Whilst the vast majority of the anticipated catchment area forming part of these proposals is located north of the River Thames, it does extend south of the river to include Dartford, Bluewater and the surrounding area. 1.6.4 Further north of the River Thames towards the periphery of the catchment are Basildon and Romford. Both, in contrast to Bluewater, are orientated towards the lower ends of the retail market, with Basildon in-particular having a significantly different fashion orientation to that of Bluewater. 1.6.5 Stratford City lies just beyond the north-western edge of the catchment area. Although located outside of the catchment area, Stratford City has a very comparable offer to Bluewater, as set out in the table below.
Centre Fashion Market Position Fashion Position Age Position Orientation Index Classification Classification Classification (Average = 100)
Westfield, Stratford City 172 Upscale Fashion Forward Young
1.6.7 Given the physical constraints of the River Thames, the catchment area is largely orientated towards the south of the river. Bromley is located to the western periphery of the study area, approximately 18 miles from Bluewater. The centre comprises approximately 135,941m² total gross retail floorspace, and 72,813m² net comparison retail floorspace (Bromley Retail Study, 2009). The centre is considered comparable to Bluewater by method of Venuescore (2011), which notes an above average orientation towards fashion, and a retail offer that is orientated towards the ‘upper middle’ market. The centre is reported to be trading well, with an estimated turnover of £465m (2010 prices). 1.6.8 To the south-eastern periphery of the catchment is Croydon, located approximately 24 miles from Bluewater. Accordingly, the centre will comprise a significantly different retail catchment to that of the application proposals hereby enclosed. Croydon contains a significant level of comparison retail floorspace totalling c. 137,435sqm net (Croydon Metropolitan Centre Retail Strategy, Appendix 2) whilst also having aspirations for its future development. The centre performs above average with regards to fashion orientation, providing a mainstream offering to a primarily young age classification. There are emerging plans for the redevelopment of the Whitgift Shopping Centre, either by Westfield or Hammerson, which will further enhance the retail provision in Croydon. 1.6.9 Both Tunbridge Wells and Maidstone are located to the south/south-east of Bluewater. Both centres have an above average fashion orientation index, although position themselves differently within the retail market. Tunbridge Wells is positioned toward the higher end of the market, providing a more traditional fashion offering towards older age groups. By contrast, Maidstone sits within the middle range of the retail market, providing a mainstream offering that is orientated towards the middle age groups. 1.6.10 The catchment also contains a significant number of sub-regional and major district centres, the most relevant of which have are assessed as part of the impact analysis within Section 7 of this statement. Gravesham Borough Council
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1.7 Retail Commitments 1.7.1 It is pertinent to consider the extent of any extant planning permissions for additional comparison floorspace within the study area. These have been used to inform the quantitative analysis of the proposals. 1.7.2 As part of the quantitative analysis, research has been undertaken into significant comparison retail commitments (c. 1,000sqm and above) within the catchment area. . Each commitment has been incorporated into the quantitative analysis to robustly assess the potential impact against future comparison goods turnovers. 1.7.3 The following paragraphs identify the most significant, major comparison retail commitments that, at the time of writing, benefit from planning consent. A full list of retail commitments identified and subsequently included within the quantitative analysis is included at Appendix 3.
Lakeside Shopping Centre 1.7.4 Lakeside Shopping Centre is located within the Primary Catchment Area, albeit distinctly separated from Bluewater by the River Thames. The centre is a regional shopping centre similar to Bluewater, albeit it serves a different catchment population. 1.7.5 Planning consent was approved on 26 July 2012, subject to a S106 agreement yet to be completed, for the alteration and extension of the shopping centre to include new retail floorspace within Use Classes A1 to A5, and the erection of a new bus station. 1.7.6 The proposed extension will include approximately 39,691m² of net comparison retail floorspace with an estimated turnover of £154.86m in 2018, rising to £162.89m in 2021. . Only a single survey zone out of thirteen assessed within the application proposals extends south of the River Thames, accounting for only 1% of the proposed extension turnover. 1.7.7 The proposals will reinforce Lakeside’s role as a specialist regional shopping centre.
Ebbsfleet Valley 1.7.8 Ebbsfleet Valley is located to the east of Bluewater, representing a significant redevelopment on an area of just over 1,000 acres. Development of the Ebbsfleet Valley is recognised as one of the key potential economic drivers for the Thames Gateway. 1.7.9 Ebbsfleet Valley is essentially made up of the planning permissions known as Eastern Quarry 2 (ref: DA/03/01134/OUT) and Ebbsfleet (DA/96/00047). Eastern Quarry 2 was granted outline planning consent in November 2007 for development comprising up to 6,250 dwellings and up to 231,000sqm of built floorspace for business premises, education, community and social facilities, hotels, and supporting retail and leisure facilities. A Site Wide Master Plan was subsequently approved (ref: DA/07/01318) and various Area Master Plans and associated reserved matters have been granted consent. 1.7.10 Ebbsfleet was granted outline planning consent in November 2002 and subsequent Master Plans have been prepared for Station Quarter North (ref: DA/08/00577/EBQNC) and Station Quarter South (ref: DA/06/01045). The development of the Ebbsfleet Valley is an important economic driver and will provide a new business district focussed around the international station alongside new homes, retail and leisure facilities. The proposals will include an element of comparison retail floorspace that will largely be supported by the increased residential and working population associated with the development. The original outline consent for Ebbsfleet was restricted to 15,500sqm of class A1 retail uses (in Station Quarter north and south).
LowfieldGravesham Street Regeneration, DBoroughartford Town Centre Council 1.7.11 The Lowfield Street site is located within Dartford Town Centre, comprising approximately 3.7 hectares of land. Currently, the site comprises several vacant units and contributes significantly to high vacancy rates within Dartford.
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1.7.12 Planning consent was approved on 10 November 2011, subject to the satisfactory completion of a S106 agreement yet to be finalised, for the mixed use redevelopment of the site to include retail within Use Classes A1, A2 and A3, 231 residential units, business uses, community facilities and health uses (ref: 11/00747/FUL). 1.7.13 The proposals include c. 4,325m² of retail floorspace in addition to a Tesco store comprising a net sales area of 6,612m² that will sell a range of convenience and comparison goods. 1.7.14 The Lowfield Street site represents a genuine committed retail development, and it will need to be accounted for within the quantitative and qualitative projections. As well as the large new convenience element, the proposals will provide new comparison floorspace within Dartford town centre that will influence expenditure flows within the catchment, whilst further significantly reducing the level of vacant property within the town.
Other Retail Commitments of Relevance 1.7.15 The following retail commitments have also been identified as being relevant, and are therefore included within the impact assessment: • Proposed MSU unit, Bluewater Shopping Centre: Planning permission was granted in November 2012 for a two-storey extension to Units U027 and U028A to provide an addition 2,211 GEA comparison goods floorspace; • Hempstead Valley Shopping Centre Extension: The Medway Council Retail Needs Study (March 2009) identifies an approved extension to Hempstead Valley Shopping Centre comprising 1,724sqm of comparison floorspace, with an estimated turnover of £11.14m at 2016; • Proposed Town Centre/Milton Creek Regeneration, Sittingbourne: Outline planning application approved for the proposed redevelopment to include a Tesco foodstore of c. 3,700sqm comparison sales area, and additional retailing totaling c. 12,649sqm (application reference: SW/10/1415); • Former Civic Offices, Bexleyheath: Proposed redevelopment to provide a Tesco Extra foodstore with c. 3,500sqm of comparison goods sales floorspace (application reference 11/01998/FULM, approved July 2012); • Chatham Docks Redevelopment: Outline planning consent granted (subject to S106) for the mixed-use redevelopment of the former Chatham docks (application reference: MC/11/2756). To include an ASDA foodstore comprising c. 1,654sqm of comparison goods floorspace; • Former ABC Cinema, Tunbridge Wells: Comprising 3,310sqm of comparison floorspace with an estimated turnover of £22.5m. This commitment is identified within the Tunbridge Wells Retail Study and has been confirmed as still outstanding by the Council; • Market Place, Swan Walk & Liberty Square, Romford: Proposed redevelopment to include approximately 1,900sqm of comparison sales floorspace (application reference: P1587.11).
Centre Aspirations 1.7.16 In addition to established retail commitments, it is pertinent to consider the extent of any proposed developments for comparison floorspace that are considered likely to potentially come forward within the catchment across the study period. Two such potential schemes have been identified. They are: • Proposed redevelopment of the Whitgift Centre, Croydon: proposals are being generated to redevelop the Whitgift Shopping Centre and adjacent land in Croydon to provide a new Shopping Centre, potentially by either Westfield of Hammerson, comprising an estimated net additional comparison floorspace of approximately 8,000sqm, accounting for demolitions in existing floorspace; • HeritageGravesham Quarter, Gravesend: A planning Borough application was recently Council refused for the proposed redevelopment of the Heritage Quarter in Gravesend, providing c. 8,385sqm of comparison goods floorspace. Notwithstanding this, Gravesham Council has advised that they anticipate a revised application to be submitted in the near future.
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