DOCSLIB.ORG

Advancing the Epistemology of Intelligence Analysis: a Polanyian Perspective

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Advancing the Epistemology of Intelligence Analysis: a Polanyian Perspective Advancing the epistemology of intelligence analysis: A Polanyian perspective By Owen Ormerod, BA (Hons), BCrim Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Deakin University April 2018 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost I would like to thank my wife Jessica. Her love and support made this journey possible. She helped me stoke the fire and kept my passion burning for this project. It is a blessing to have Jessica in my life, as we navigate together through the hurdles we encounter. It is a privilege to share this achievement with her. This could not have been possible without her. I would like to thank Dr Chad Whelan, my principal supervisor. His brutal honesty and practical advice kept me from going too far down the rabbit hole. The assistance provided by Dr Struan Jacobs, particularly around understanding the ideas of Michael Polanyi, and being so generous with his time with me, was greatly appreciated. I would also like to thank Dr Darren Palmer for his practical advice on the thesis. Thank you to Dr Floriana Badalotti, from Arte Lingua, for her assistance with the professional editing of this thesis. My family have been of great assistance and moral support throughout this project. They have helped me stay focused and achieve this important goal. Their love and care helped sustain me. i Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................. i LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................... iii LIST OF APPENDICES ................................................................................... iii ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... iv ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................... v Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Method and approach ............................................................................................ 8 Chapter 1: The ‘Art’ and ‘Science’ of intelligence analysis ...................... 14 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 14 Understanding the intelligence field..................................................................... 14 The intelligence cycle ............................................................................................ 27 Intelligence analysis as ‘Art’ .................................................................................. 29 Intelligence analysis as ‘Science’ ........................................................................... 31 Education and training .......................................................................................... 34 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 38 Chapter 2: Exposition of Polanyi ................................................................. 40 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 40 Discovery as the aim of scientific research ........................................................... 42 No overarching ‘scientific method’ ....................................................................... 47 Tacit knowing ........................................................................................................ 50 Practical knowledge and skilful practice ............................................................... 54 Tacit knowing and learning ................................................................................... 59 Personal knowledge .............................................................................................. 63 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 67 Chapter 3: Tacit knowing ............................................................................. 69 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 69 Tacit knowing and the use of tools ....................................................................... 70 SATs: an outline ..................................................................................................... 75 Tools, objectivity and bias ..................................................................................... 79 ii Skilful performance ............................................................................................... 82 Destructive analysis .............................................................................................. 88 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 94 Chapter 4: Personal knowledge .................................................................. 97 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 97 The School of Athens – Ways of Knowing ............................................................. 98 Genuine knowledge and belief ........................................................................... 107 Tradecraft: training and education ..................................................................... 114 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 123 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 125 Reference list .............................................................................................. 133 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The Intelligence Cycle ..................................................................... 27 Figure 2: The School of Athens .................................................................... 100 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix 1: Email from Glenn Carle……………………………………….167 Appendix 2: Email from Philip Mudd…………………………………….....170 iii ABBREVIATIONS ACH Analysis of Competing Hypotheses CIA Central Intelligence Agency FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation IC Intelligence Communities KM Knowledge Management SATs Structured Analytic Techniques NSA National Security Agency ODNI Office of the Director of National Intelligence ONA Office of National Assessments UK United Kingdom UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction iv ABSTRACT Epistemological considerations are at the heart of both understanding and developing a deeper perception of the tradecraft of intelligence analysis as a field of study and its practice. Ranging from the intelligence fields of national security to law enforcement, intelligence analysis as a practice and area of study engages a series of fundamental questions, covering what we know, how we know such things and the reliability of knowledge claims. This thesis situates itself within the sociology of knowledge with respect to the discourse on the discipline of intelligence analysis. The primary research question guiding this thesis is: How can Michael Polanyi’s views of science contribute towards understanding the ‘process’ and ‘product’ of intelligence analysis? As revealed by intelligence literature, a clear and persistent aim for the transformation of intelligence analysis as a discipline has been to align the field with scientific principles and practices. Within intelligence literature, there are noticeable efforts within some quarters to align intelligence analysis, most observably within the US Intelligence Community, with generally accepted principles of science by requiring analysts to engage in more rigorous standards and systematic processes. Such efforts aim towards generating more accurate and reliable intelligence assessments, or for better ‘connecting the dots’. Michael Polanyi’s arguments regarding the activities of scientists are transferable to the field of intelligence analysis, providing a nuanced perspective for perceiving epistemological challenges and issues facing analysts. Specifically, Polanyi’s concepts of ‘tacit knowing’ and ‘personal knowledge’ contributes towards developing a more epistemologically robust and complete understanding of some aspects of the process and the product of intelligence analysis. Keywords: Intelligence analysis, science, Michael Polanyi, tacit, knowledge, epistemology v Introduction Discovery consists of seeing what everyone else has seen and thinking what nobody has thought. Albert Szent-Györgyi, 1937 Nobel Prize scientist (cited in Lathrop 2008) The primary research question guiding this thesis is the following: How can Michael Polanyi’s views of science contribute towards understanding the ‘process’ and ‘product’ of intelligence analysis? This question emerged from observations regarding the discernible trend, both within the national security and law enforcement literature, of attempts to align intelligence analysis to ‘scientific’ principles and practices (Cooper 2005; Gill 2009; Innes, Fielding & Cope 2005; Marrin 2011b; Marrin & Clemente 2005, 2006; Spielmann 2014; Wirtz 2014a). With respect to the goal in the intelligence field to become more ‘scientific’, this thesis argues Polanyi’s view of science can shed important light on the matter; specifically, his understanding of how problems are
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Open Hearing: Nomination of Gina Haspel to Be the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
    S. HRG. 115–302 OPEN HEARING: NOMINATION OF GINA HASPEL TO BE THE DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY HEARING BEFORE THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE OF THE UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION WEDNESDAY, MAY 9, 2018 Printed for the use of the Select Committee on Intelligence ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.govinfo.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 30–119 PDF WASHINGTON : 2018 VerDate Sep 11 2014 14:25 Aug 20, 2018 Jkt 030925 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 C:\DOCS\30119.TXT SHAUN LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE [Established by S. Res. 400, 94th Cong., 2d Sess.] RICHARD BURR, North Carolina, Chairman MARK R. WARNER, Virginia, Vice Chairman JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho DIANNE FEINSTEIN, California MARCO RUBIO, Florida RON WYDEN, Oregon SUSAN COLLINS, Maine MARTIN HEINRICH, New Mexico ROY BLUNT, Missouri ANGUS KING, Maine JAMES LANKFORD, Oklahoma JOE MANCHIN III, West Virginia TOM COTTON, Arkansas KAMALA HARRIS, California JOHN CORNYN, Texas MITCH MCCONNELL, Kentucky, Ex Officio CHUCK SCHUMER, New York, Ex Officio JOHN MCCAIN, Arizona, Ex Officio JACK REED, Rhode Island, Ex Officio CHRIS JOYNER, Staff Director MICHAEL CASEY, Minority Staff Director KELSEY STROUD BAILEY, Chief Clerk (II) VerDate Sep 11 2014 14:25 Aug 20, 2018 Jkt 030925 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C:\DOCS\30119.TXT SHAUN LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER CONTENTS MAY 9, 2018 OPENING STATEMENTS Burr, Hon. Richard, Chairman, a U.S. Senator from North Carolina ................ 1 Warner, Mark R., Vice Chairman, a U.S. Senator from Virginia ........................ 3 WITNESSES Chambliss, Saxby, former U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Dueling Absurdities
    Dueling Delusions: Terrorism and Counterterrorism in the United States Since 9/11 John Mueller Ohio State University and Cato Institute Mark G. Stewart University of Newcastle November 9, 2011 Prepared for presentation at the Program on International Security Policy University of Chicago, November 15, 2011 John Mueller Senior Research Scientist, Mershon Center for International Security Studies Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio 43201, United States Cato Senior Fellow, Cato Institute 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001, United States polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller +1 614 247-6007 [email protected] Mark G. Stewart Australian Research Council Professorial Fellow Professor and Director, Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability The University of Newcastle New South Wales, 2308, Australia www.newcastle.edu.au/research-centre/cipar/staff/mark-stewart.html +61 2 49216027 [email protected] ABSTRACT: A preliminary, if rather lengthy, set of ruminations on our ten years, and counting, of absurdity and delusion on the terrorism issue. It seems increasingly likely that the reaction to the terrorism attacks of September 11, 2001, was massively disproportionate to the real threat al- Qaeda has ever actually presented either as an international menace or as an inspiration or model to homegrown amateurs. But the terrorism/counterterrorism saga trudges determinedly, doggedly, and anti-climactically onward: people profess fear of another attack, funds continue to be expended irresponsibly, and killing continues, all in the name of the fabled tragedy of 9/11. A warning: the paper includes reference to the Wizard of Oz and to The Emperor’s New Clothes and may not be suitable for all audiences.
    [Show full text]
  • Extraordinary Rendition and Torture What the Narratives of Victims Reveal and Require
    Extraordinary Rendition and Torture What the Narratives of Victims Reveal and Require UNC School of Law Joshua R. Bennett Isabelle Chammas Siya Hegde Hillary Li Jeffrey S. Nooney Matt Norchi Seth Proctor Tyler J. Walters Deborah M. Weissman Reef C. Ivey II Distinguished Professor of Law Faculty Advisor http://www.law.unc.edu/documents/academics/humanrights/narrativethemes.pdf November 2017 Extraordinary Rendition and Torture What the Narratives of Victims Reveal and Require Table of Contents I. History of the Extraordinary Rendition Program 1 II. Torture and its Long-Term Effects 7 III. The Role of Islamophobia in the Extraordinary Rendition and Torture Program 15 IV. The Cost of Torture 23 V. The Link Between Domestic Criminal Justice Reform and International Human Rights 28 VI. Government Contractor Liability 37 VII. The United States’ Legal and Moral Obligations to Provide Fair and Adequate Compensation for Released Detainee 43 VIII. Relief for Torture Victims and its Barriers 52 I. History of the Extraordinary Rendition Program Extraordinary rendition, as it was practiced post-September 11, 2001, and as it is described in the pages that follow, connotes the latest iteration of a program that has a much longer history. Before briefly surveying the program’s history, it is helpful to consider its definition. According to the Open Society Justice Initiative, no official U.S. government definition of the program exists,1 despite the fact that it is the U.S. government that was responsible for designing and implementing it. The Open Society formulated its own definition as “the transfer—without legal process—of a detainee to the custody of a foreign government for purposes of detention and interrogation.”2 1 OPEN SOCIETY JUSTICE INITIATIVE, GLOBALIZING TORTURE: CIA SECRET DETENTION AND EXTRAORDINARY RENDITION 13 (2013), https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/sites/default/files/globalizing-torture-20120205.pdf.
    [Show full text]
  • The Islamic State Phenomenon
    THE ISLAMIC STATE PHENOMENON John Mueller Ohio State University and Cato Institute Mark G. Stewart University of Newcastle, Australia January 22, 2017 Prepared for presentation at the National Convention of the International Studies Association, Baltimore, MD, February 25, 2017 John Mueller Senior Research Scientist, Mershon Center for International Security Studies Adjunct Professor, Department of Political Science Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43201 Cato Senior Fellow, Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001 polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller +1 614 247-6007 [email protected] Mark G. Stewart Professor and Director, Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability The University of Newcastle, New South Wales, 2308, Australia www.newcastle.edu.au/research-centre/cipar/staff/mark-stewart.html +61 2 49216027 [email protected] ABSTRACT: In 2014, a militant group calling itself the Islamic State, or ISIS, burst into official and public attention with some military victories in Iraq and Syria—particularly taking over Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul. At first the American public saw it as minor problem. But alarm greatly escalated a few months later when the group performed and webcast several beheadings of defenseless Western hostages, and by 2016, 77 percent said on polls that they deemed it to present “a serious threat to the existence or survival of the US.” This paper examines this phenomenon, comparing it with that generated a decade and a half earlier by al- Qaeda. The exercise suggests that, although the vicious group certainly presents a threat to the people under its control and in its neighborhood, and although it can contribute damagingly to the instability in the Middle East that has followed serial intervention there by the American military, it scarcely presents a challenge to global security.
    [Show full text]
  • Human Rights Watch
    1630 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 500 Washington, DC 20009 Tel: 202-612-4321 Fax: 202-612-4333; 202-478-2988 Kenneth Roth, Executive Director Deputy Executive D i r e c t o r s March 23, 2018 Michele Alexander, Development and Global Initiatives Nicholas Dawes, Media Iain Levine, Program The Honorable Mitch McConnell Chuck Lustig, Operations Bruno Stagno Ugarte, Advocacy Senate Majority Leader, US Senate Emma Daly, Communications Director Dinah PoKempner, General Counsel James Ross, Legal and Policy Director The Honorable Chuck Schumer Division and Program Directors Senate Minority Leader, US Senate Brad Adams, Asia Nicole Austin-Hillery, United States Mausi Segun, Africa José Miguel Vivanco, Americas The Honorable Richard Burr Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia Chairman, US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Shantha Rau Barriga, Disability Rights Peter Bouckaert, Emergencies Zama Neff, Children’s Rights The Honorable Mark Warner Richard Dicker, International Justice Bill Frelick, Refugees’ Rights Vice Chairman, US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Arvind Ganesan, Business and Human Rights Liesl Gerntholtz, Women’s Rights Steve Goose, Arms Diederik Lohman, Health and Human Rights Re: Nomination of Gina Haspel to be CIA Director Marcos Orellana, Environment and Human Rights Graeme Reid, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Rights Advocacy Directors Dear Majority Leader McConnell, Minority Leader Schumer, Chairman Burr, Maria Laura Canineu, Brazil Louis Charbonneau, United Nations, New York and Vice Chairman Warner: Kanae Doi, Japan John Fisher, United Nations, Geneva Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia We write on behalf of Human Rights Watch to express our opposition to the Bénédicte Jeannerod, France Lotte Leicht, European Union impending nomination of Gina Haspel to be Central Intelligence Agency Sarah Margon, Washington, DC David Mepham, United Kingdom director.
    [Show full text]
  • Richard Fecteau, Who Were Held Prisoner in China, at CIA Award Ceremony, November 2013
    Association of Former Intelligence Officers From AFIO's The Intelligencer 7700 Leesburg Pike, Suite 324 Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies Falls Church, Virginia 22043 Web: www.afio.com, E-mail: [email protected] Volume 23 • Number 3 • $15 single copy price BU PEOPLE Alumni III. HISTORICAL CONTEXT Many BU alumni have made and continue to make important contributions to the US Intelligence Com- munity. Their dedicated efforts and unique achieve- ments seldom receive public recognition because of the highly classified nature of their work. Since begin- ning my teaching at BU, I have been heartened to see several of my BU students, who will remain nameless, embark on intelligence-related careers. Several BU Terriers’ good names, honorable ser- vice, and brave deeds have been made public. These alumni deserve to have their stories told. Similarly, other BU alumni have been either accused of com- mitting espionage or have been the target of US Gov- A Spy’s Guide to Boston University ernment surveillance. Their experiences also deserve recounting. by John D. Woodward Jr JD INTRODUCTION came to Boston University as a professor in July 2015, after a long career with the Central Intelli- I gence Agency, most of it serving in the CIA’s clan- destine service. Among the classes I teach, my favorite is “The Evolution of Strategic Intelligence,” which is essentially about the history of espionage. My students especially enjoy our class field trip to see Boston’s John Downey (left) and Richard Fecteau, who were held prisoner in China, at CIA award ceremony, November 2013. intelligence-related sites.
    [Show full text]
  • Prepublication Review in the Intelligence Community
    TILL DEATH DO US PART: PREPUBLICATION REVIEW IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY Kevin Casey* As a condition of access to classified information, most employees of the U.S. intelligence community are required to sign nondisclosure agreements that mandate lifetime prepublication review. In essence, these agreements require employees to submit any works that discuss their experiences working in the intelligence community---whether writ- ten or oral, fiction or nonfiction---to their respective agencies and receive approval before seeking publication. Though these agreements constitute an exercise of prior restraint, the Supreme Court has held them constitu- tional. This Note does not argue fororagainsttheconstitutionality of prepublication review; instead, it explores how prepublication review is actually practiced by agencies and concludes that thecurrentsystem, which lacks executive-branch-wide guidance, grants too much discretion to individual agencies. It compares the policies of individual agencies with the experiences of actual authors who have clashed with prepublication-review boards to argue that agencies conduct review in a manner that is inconsistent at best, and downright biased and discriminatory at worst. The level of secrecy shrouding intelligence agencies and the concomitant dearth of publicly available information about their activi- ties make it difcult to evaluate their performance and, by extension, the performance of our electedofcials in overseeing such activities. In such circumstances, memoirs and other forms of expression
    [Show full text]
  • The Ethics of Interrogation and the Rule of Law
    The Ethics of Interrogation and the Rule of Law A Report by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law Release Date: February 24, 2017 Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL) Report February 2017 CERL Report on The Ethics of Interrogation and the Rule of Law I. Introduction On January 25, 2017, President Trump repeated his belief that torture works1 and reaffirmed his commitment to intensify the treatment of detainees in American custody.2 That same day, CBS News released a draft Trump Administration executive order which would order the Intelligence Community (IC) and Defense Department to review the legality of torture as well as the potential for a revision to the Army Field Manual which would open up the possibility for harsh interrogations.3 Were the new administration to attempt to bring back enhanced interrogation, its point of entry might be the issuance of the draft executive order, or a stronger executive order authorizing torture and directing a revision of the Army Field Manual. This Report contains an evaluation of the current legal status of torture, along with an analysis of the anticipated legal steps that might be taken to revive the enhanced interrogation program. Recent commentary, as well as the draft executive order, have received harsh criticism from lawmakers. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said, “The President can sign whatever executive orders he likes. But the law is the law,” he continued by saying, “We are not bringing back torture in the United States of America.”4 The President appears for the moment to be leaving the ultimate judgment on whether to revive the use of torture in interrogations to his national security chiefs, namely Central Intelligence Agency Director (DCIA) Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense James Mattis.
    [Show full text]
  • The Use of State-Sponsored Torture for National Security
    Rollins College Rollins Scholarship Online Honors Program Theses Spring 2019 The seU of State-Sponsored Torture for National Security: A Debate on the Permissibility of Torture in the Name of Public Safety Matthew iF sher [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.rollins.edu/honors Part of the Political Theory Commons Recommended Citation Fisher, Matthew, "The sU e of State-Sponsored Torture for National Security: A Debate on the Permissibility of Torture in the Name of Public Safety" (2019). Honors Program Theses. 85. https://scholarship.rollins.edu/honors/85 This Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by Rollins Scholarship Online. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Program Theses by an authorized administrator of Rollins Scholarship Online. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Use of State-Sponsored Torture for National Security A Debate on the Permissibility of Torture in the Name of Public Safety Matthew Fisher Honors Degree Program Thesis, Rollins College Spring 2019 Department of Political Science Faculty Advisor: Dr. Julia Maskivker Abstract Can the United States government’s use of state-sponsored torture ever be justified for national security purposes? This question is a taboo subject that frequently elicits passionate responses from individuals who argue both for and against its use in upholding national security. This vigorous debate challenges moral, ethical, legal, and even pragmatic ideals in seeking to determine if state use of torture can ever be a part of America’s national security strategy. These considerations, and others, have inspired this research project and the specific research question which seeks to determine whether the United States government’s use of state-sponsored torture for national security purposes can ever be justified.
    [Show full text]
  • Chasing Ghosts: the Policing of Terrorism
    MISOVERESTIMATING ISIS: COMPARISONS WITH AL-QAEDA John Mueller Ohio State University and Cato Institute Mark G. Stewart University of Newcastle April 20, 2016 Prepared for presentation at the conference, Constructions of Terrorism: Confronting the Challenges to Global Security Created by Daesh/Islamic State sponsored by TRENDS Research & Advisory, Abu Dhabi, UAE, The Orfalea Center for Global and International Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara, and The Stimson Center, Washington DC Stimson Center, Washington, DC, April 27-28, 2016 John Mueller Woody Hayes Senior Research Scientist, Mershon Center for International Security Studies Adjunct Professor, Department of Political Science Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio 43201, United States Cato Senior Fellow, Cato Institute 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001, United States politicalscience.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller +1 614 247-6007 [email protected] Mark G. Stewart Professor and Director, Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability The University of Newcastle New South Wales 2308, Australia www.newcastle.edu.au/research-centre/cipar/staff/mark-stewart.html +61 2 49216027 [email protected] ABSTRACT: An examination of the ISIS phenomenon, comparing it with that generated a decade and a half earlier by al-Qaeda. Although the vicious group certainly presents a threat to the people under its control and although it can contribute damagingly to the instability in the Middle East that has followed serial intervention there by the American military, it scarcely presents a challenge to global security. As with al-Qaeda, however, the unwarranted fear and alarm ISIS has generated is likely to persist even if it is effectively extinguished as a physical force in the Middle East.
    [Show full text]
  • SSCI Letter Template
    February 25, 2014 Dear Senator: We write to you as current and former professional interrogators, interviewers, and intelligence officials regarding the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence’s (SSCI) 6000-plus page study of the CIA’s post-9/11 rendition, detention, and interrogation program. We understand that the SSCI may soon take up the issue of whether to pursue declassification and public release of the study. In the interest of transparency and furthering an understanding of effective interrogation policy, we urge you to support declassification and release of as much of the study as possible, with only such redactions as are necessary to protect national security. Since the CIA program was established over a decade ago, there has been substantial public interest in, and discussion of, the fundamental efficacy of the so-called “enhanced interrogation techniques” (EITs). Despite the employment of these methods, critical questions remain unanswered as to whether EITs are an appropriate, lawful, or effective means of consistently eliciting accurate, timely, and comprehensive intelligence from individuals held in custody. Based on our experience, torture and other forms of abusive or coercive techniques are more likely to generate unreliable information and have repeatedly proven to be counterproductive as a means of securing the enduring cooperation of a detained individual. They increase the likelihood of receiving false or misleading information, undermine this nation’s ability to work with key international partners, and bolster
    [Show full text]
  • National Security and Double Government ______Michael J
    2014 / Double Government 1 ARTICLE National Security and Double Government _________________ Michael J. Glennon* In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. —James Madison1 Abstract National security policy in the United States has remained largely constant from the Bush Administration to the Obama Administration. This continuity can be explained by the “double government” theory of 19th-century scholar of the English Constitution Walter Bagehot. As applied to the United States, Bagehot’s theory suggests that U.S. national security policy is defined by the network of executive officials who manage the departments and agencies responsible for protecting U.S. national security and who, responding to structural incentives embedded in the U.S. political system, operate largely removed from public view and from constitutional constraints. The public believes that the constitutionally-established institutions control national security policy, but that view is mistaken. Judicial review is negligible; congressional oversight is dysfunctional; and presidential control is nominal. Absent a more informed and engaged * Professor of International Law, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. Thanks to Artin Afkhami, Ashley Belyea, Julia Brooks, Mike Eckel, Ian Johnstone, Robert Hillman, William Martel, John Perry, Luca Urech, and Fletcher political science workshop participants for comments on an earlier draft; to Beaudre Barnes, Claudio Guler, and Cecilia Vogel for research assistance; and to innumerable Trumanites and Madisonians, past and present, with whom I have worked and spoken over the years.
    [Show full text]