Advancing the epistemology of intelligence analysis: A Polanyian perspective By Owen Ormerod, BA (Hons), BCrim Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Deakin University April 2018 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost I would like to thank my wife Jessica. Her love and support made this journey possible. She helped me stoke the fire and kept my passion burning for this project. It is a blessing to have Jessica in my life, as we navigate together through the hurdles we encounter. It is a privilege to share this achievement with her. This could not have been possible without her. I would like to thank Dr Chad Whelan, my principal supervisor. His brutal honesty and practical advice kept me from going too far down the rabbit hole. The assistance provided by Dr Struan Jacobs, particularly around understanding the ideas of Michael Polanyi, and being so generous with his time with me, was greatly appreciated. I would also like to thank Dr Darren Palmer for his practical advice on the thesis. Thank you to Dr Floriana Badalotti, from Arte Lingua, for her assistance with the professional editing of this thesis. My family have been of great assistance and moral support throughout this project. They have helped me stay focused and achieve this important goal. Their love and care helped sustain me. i Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................. i LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................... iii LIST OF APPENDICES ................................................................................... iii ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... iv ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................... v Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Method and approach ............................................................................................ 8 Chapter 1: The ‘Art’ and ‘Science’ of intelligence analysis ...................... 14 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 14 Understanding the intelligence field..................................................................... 14 The intelligence cycle ............................................................................................ 27 Intelligence analysis as ‘Art’ .................................................................................. 29 Intelligence analysis as ‘Science’ ........................................................................... 31 Education and training .......................................................................................... 34 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 38 Chapter 2: Exposition of Polanyi ................................................................. 40 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 40 Discovery as the aim of scientific research ........................................................... 42 No overarching ‘scientific method’ ....................................................................... 47 Tacit knowing ........................................................................................................ 50 Practical knowledge and skilful practice ............................................................... 54 Tacit knowing and learning ................................................................................... 59 Personal knowledge .............................................................................................. 63 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 67 Chapter 3: Tacit knowing ............................................................................. 69 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 69 Tacit knowing and the use of tools ....................................................................... 70 SATs: an outline ..................................................................................................... 75 Tools, objectivity and bias ..................................................................................... 79 ii Skilful performance ............................................................................................... 82 Destructive analysis .............................................................................................. 88 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 94 Chapter 4: Personal knowledge .................................................................. 97 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 97 The School of Athens – Ways of Knowing ............................................................. 98 Genuine knowledge and belief ........................................................................... 107 Tradecraft: training and education ..................................................................... 114 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 123 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 125 Reference list .............................................................................................. 133 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The Intelligence Cycle ..................................................................... 27 Figure 2: The School of Athens .................................................................... 100 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix 1: Email from Glenn Carle……………………………………….167 Appendix 2: Email from Philip Mudd…………………………………….....170 iii ABBREVIATIONS ACH Analysis of Competing Hypotheses CIA Central Intelligence Agency FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation IC Intelligence Communities KM Knowledge Management SATs Structured Analytic Techniques NSA National Security Agency ODNI Office of the Director of National Intelligence ONA Office of National Assessments UK United Kingdom UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction iv ABSTRACT Epistemological considerations are at the heart of both understanding and developing a deeper perception of the tradecraft of intelligence analysis as a field of study and its practice. Ranging from the intelligence fields of national security to law enforcement, intelligence analysis as a practice and area of study engages a series of fundamental questions, covering what we know, how we know such things and the reliability of knowledge claims. This thesis situates itself within the sociology of knowledge with respect to the discourse on the discipline of intelligence analysis. The primary research question guiding this thesis is: How can Michael Polanyi’s views of science contribute towards understanding the ‘process’ and ‘product’ of intelligence analysis? As revealed by intelligence literature, a clear and persistent aim for the transformation of intelligence analysis as a discipline has been to align the field with scientific principles and practices. Within intelligence literature, there are noticeable efforts within some quarters to align intelligence analysis, most observably within the US Intelligence Community, with generally accepted principles of science by requiring analysts to engage in more rigorous standards and systematic processes. Such efforts aim towards generating more accurate and reliable intelligence assessments, or for better ‘connecting the dots’. Michael Polanyi’s arguments regarding the activities of scientists are transferable to the field of intelligence analysis, providing a nuanced perspective for perceiving epistemological challenges and issues facing analysts. Specifically, Polanyi’s concepts of ‘tacit knowing’ and ‘personal knowledge’ contributes towards developing a more epistemologically robust and complete understanding of some aspects of the process and the product of intelligence analysis. Keywords: Intelligence analysis, science, Michael Polanyi, tacit, knowledge, epistemology v Introduction Discovery consists of seeing what everyone else has seen and thinking what nobody has thought. Albert Szent-Györgyi, 1937 Nobel Prize scientist (cited in Lathrop 2008) The primary research question guiding this thesis is the following: How can Michael Polanyi’s views of science contribute towards understanding the ‘process’ and ‘product’ of intelligence analysis? This question emerged from observations regarding the discernible trend, both within the national security and law enforcement literature, of attempts to align intelligence analysis to ‘scientific’ principles and practices (Cooper 2005; Gill 2009; Innes, Fielding & Cope 2005; Marrin 2011b; Marrin & Clemente 2005, 2006; Spielmann 2014; Wirtz 2014a). With respect to the goal in the intelligence field to become more ‘scientific’, this thesis argues Polanyi’s view of science can shed important light on the matter; specifically, his understanding of how problems are