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Looming Discontinuities in US Military Strategy and Defense Planning CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation occasional paper series. RAND occa- sional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research methodologies, essays, a paper presented at a conference, a conference summary, or a summary of work in progress. All RAND occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New Strategy Paul K. Davis, Peter A. Wilson Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Control Number: 2011924500 ISBN: 978-0-8330-5210-0 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This occasional paper is a think piece about the future of U.S. military strategy and forces. It was written to go beyond the important developments of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (Gates, 2010). We offer a sobering diagnosis (albeit one dependent on some personal judgments) of major impending problems and suggest ideas about how to find the way ahead. The paper is intended to be of interest to those inside or outside of government who are con- cerned with issues of U.S. defense strategy and defense planning. Comments are welcome and should be addressed to the authors (Paul K. Davis, [email protected], and Peter A. Wilson, [email protected]). This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/about/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is pro- vided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ........................................................................................................... vii Tables ............................................................................................................ ix Summary ........................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments ............................................................................................ xix Abbreviations .................................................................................................. xxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Diagnosis: An Environment with New Demands ........................................................ 3 Technological Developments ................................................................................... 3 Adverse Trends ................................................................................................. 3 Collision of Multiple Revolutions in Military Affairs ..................................................... 3 Geostrategic Changes ............................................................................................ 6 China and East Asia ........................................................................................... 6 India and South Asia .......................................................................................... 9 Proliferating Weapons of Mass Destruction ............................................................... 10 The Struggle with International Violent Religious Extremists .......................................... 10 Space and Cyberspace as New Wartime Theaters of Operation ........................................... 11 The Looming Obsolescence of U.S. Power-Projection Forces ............................................. 12 Force Projection in Traditional Conflicts but with New Challenges ................................... 12 Special Problems with Complex Operations............................................................... 14 Obstacles to Action ............................................................................................. 15 Today’s Wars ................................................................................................... 15 Disruptive Technology and the Innovator’s Dilemma.................................................... 15 Constraints After a Period of Plenty ........................................................................ 16 Lack of Good, Agreed Options ............................................................................. 18 CHAPTER THREE Future Capability Needs and Possible Future Directions .............................................. 19 Basic Questions .................................................................................................. 19 Concepts of Operations for Force Projection ............................................................... 20 Selected Focus Areas for Capability Development .......................................................... 21 Enhanced Active Defense .................................................................................... 21 v vi Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance, and Kinetic Strike ................................... 22 Comprehensive Defense Suppression ...................................................................... 23 Complex Operations......................................................................................... 24 Operating Against Adversaries Embedded in Populations ............................................... 25 Major Changes in Expeditionary Ground Forces ........................................................ 26 Likely Cross-Cutting Stratagems ............................................................................. 26 Dispersion and Networking ................................................................................ 26 Network Security and Hedging ............................................................................ 27 Massive Robotics and Remote Control (Beginning of RMA V?) ...................................... 27 Rejuvenated Efforts to Limit Proliferation of Advanced Weapons ..................................... 28 CHAPTER FOUR Perceiving the Way Ahead, Darkly ........................................................................
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