The London School of Economics and Political Sciences Beyond Excess Mortality: the Demographic Life of a Mayan Community After A
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The London School of Economics and Political Sciences Beyond Excess Mortality: The Demographic Life of a Mayan Community after a War of Massacres Diego Alburez-Gutiérrez A thesis submitted to the Department of Social Policy at the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. London, September 2018 1 Declaration of Authorship I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I am the sole author of all chapters in this thesis. The thesis consists of 59,683 words. Diego Alburez-Gutiérrez 2 Abstract This thesis focuses on the demographic consequences of mass killings on local populations. Three empirical studies written as journal articles explore the patterns of mortality and fertility after a series of massacres in the village of Río Negro in Guatemala. The first paper was motived by the dearth of reliable numerical data on massacre-affected populations. It describes the Extended Genealogy Method (EGM), an innovative data collection approach that brings together concepts and methods from various disciplines to reconstruct the demographic history of populations for which no data are available. The EGM was applied to reconstruct the last 40 years of Río Negro’s demographic history producing complete, reliable, and high-quality data suitable for demographic analysis. The second paper focuses on mortality by studying the role of family support and ‘scarring’ effects during and after the Río Negro Massacres, which caused the death of over a third of the village’s population. The article explores four mechanisms driving mortality in the village in the short- and long-term. It presents evidence of the protective effects of networks of family support. It also shows the lingering negative consequences of the massacres on survivors – social and psychological scarring were associated with higher long-term mortality. The third paper focuses on the fertility behaviour of the survivors of the Río Negro Massacres. It discusses potential factors driving fertility after the killings, including age, gender dynamics, social pressure, and scarring effects. The paper finds evidence of a fertility ‘drop and rebound’, with young women and older men having the highest post-killings fertility. Exposure to the killings was associated with lower subsequent fertility (particularly for women) evidencing profound scarring effects. A community-led pronatalist ideology encouraged high fertility amongst survivors of the massacres. This is the first study to explore the demographic consequences of mass killings in detail. 3 Abstract (Maya Achi) Ri investigación kuch’ob’ upa sa’ u’anik ri kamik x’anitaj taq chupa ri junaab’ 80 xu’an k’axk’oliil chi ke ri qatz qachaaq’ re ri komoon Pa Nima’ (Río Negro), Guatemala. Che ri junaab’ 1982, 40% chi ke taq ri qatz qachaaq’ re ri komoon xekamisaxik, chi kixo’l e k’o ixoqiib’, achijaab’ jay k’omaab’. Wa’ e jun ch’ob’ooj chwi ri k’asleem ke taq ri xek’asi’ kanoq. Ri investigación karaaj kumaj usuuk’ sa’ u’anik ri k’axk’oliil xu’an k’ax che ri kik’asleem ri xek’asi’ kanoq. Ri tziij xmol uchii’ pa jun junaab’ re chaak pa taq komoon re Pa K’uux (Pacux) jay re Pa Nima’. Ri nab’ee estudio kuya’ chi retamaxiik ri ub’eyaal xchapab’exiik re xmol taq uchii’ ri chilonik ke ri alk’o’aal ke ri xek’asi’ kanoq. Wa’ e nab’ee ch’ob’ooj xuchapab’eej wa jun ub’eyaal, ub’i’ Método Genealógico Extendido (EGM pa ch’aatem inglés). Uka’m estudio kuch’ob’ raqan sa’ u’anik ri e k’o che ri alk’o’aal xkito’ kiib’ chi kiwach e chiri’ x’an ri k’axk’oliil jay e chi ri’ xik’ow ri kamik Pa Nima’. Wa tzijonik kuch’a’tib’eej sa’ uchaak jujun taq qatz qachaaq’ xek’asi’ik jay jujun chik xkisok taj. Wa uroox estudio keb’utaqeej ri tikaweex xk’oji’ kalk’o’aal chwi ri rik’owib’al ri k’axk’oliil. ¿Sa’ uchaak jujun taq ixoqiib’ xkaj xk’oji’ kalk’o’aal chwi ri rik’owib’al ri k’axk’oliil jay jujun na xkaj ta chik? Che wa ch’ob’ooj kinch’a’tib’eej ri eta’mab’al re ri k’axk’oliil, ri junaab’, ri achi jay ixoq jay la xik’owik xu’an k’axk’oliil che ri ujikib’axiik taq wa’. Ri k’isb’al re ri chomanik investigación kuk’utub’eej sa’ uchaak wa ch’ob’ooj iil uwach. Xoqo kinya’ chi retamaxiik sa’ taq ri na xel ta chi utz jay taq ri estudios utz ka’an pan chi qawach. 4 Abstract (Spanish) Esta tesis doctoral estudia las consecuencias demográficas de masacres cometidas contra población civil. Tres estudios empíricos, escritos como artículos científicos, exploran las relaciones entre mortalidad, fecundidad y apoyo social tras las masacres en la comunidad Maya Achi de Río Negro, Guatemala. El primer artículo está motivado por la falta de información cuantitativa sobre poblaciones afectadas por masacres. El estudio describe el Método Genealógico Extendido (EGM). Esta nueva metodología busca reconstruir las dinámicas demográficas de poblaciones sobre las cuales no existen datos confiables. La tesis muestra cómo el método se aplicó para reconstruir los últimos 40 años de historia demográfica de Río Negro, produciendo datos de alta calidad. El segundo estudio explora el papel positivo del apoyo familiar durante y tras las masacres. Más de un tercio de la población de Río Negro falleció en las masacres. Estos eventos también tuvieron efectos a largo plazo para quienes sobrevivieron. El artículo identifica cuatro mecanismos que vinculan apoyo familiar y mortalidad. El tercer estudio se enfoca en el comportamiento reproductivo de sobrevivientes de las masacres. El artículo muestra un patrón de ‘caída y recuperación’ de la fecundidad y discute el papel que la experiencia de la guerra, la edad, el género, la estructura familiar y la presión social jugaron en estos procesos. Las mujeres jóvenes y los hombres mayores tuvieron la fecundidad más alta tras las masacres. La fecundidad de las mujeres que tenían 20 o más años nunca se recuperó, sugiriendo la existencia de profundas cicatrices dejadas por la guerra (lo mismo no ocurrió a los hombres de la misma edad). Este es el primer estudio en explorar en detalle los efectos de las masacres en dinámicas poblacionales. 5 Acknowledgements Many people helped make this project come true. I am indebted to the people of Río Negro and Pacux, particularly to Sebastián Iboy, Ángel Pérez, Juan Iboy, Cupertino Sánchez, and Julián Sánchez. This research would not have been possible without the support of ADIVIMA: Juan de Dios García, Carlos Chen, Marwin Sical, Elba Morente, Nancy Artola, Guillermo Chen, Miriam Mata, and Pablo Chen. Maltyox che alaq! In Guatemala, Andrés Álvarez, Tatiana Paz, Aracely Martínez, Alejandra Colom, Engel Tally, and many others continue to train social scientists in challenging conditions. Their work deserves more recognition. Horacio Martínez facilitated access to the 1978 INDE census and Diego Vásquez commented on the historical chapter of the thesis. Graciela Lajuj and Édgar Peña provided key assistance during fieldwork. Special thanks to my supervisors, Arjan Gjonça, Tiziana Leone, and Ernestina Coast who encouraged me at all times and were always available to give insightful and timely support. They provided detailed comments on all the chapters of the thesis. I appreciate their commitment greatly. Thanks to Mike Murphy, who advised me in the initial stages of the thesis. Needless to say, they are not responsible for any of its content. I would not have enjoyed my time in London the same without my colleagues and friends (in no particular order): Alexis Palfreyman, Valeria Cetorelli, Wilson Guzmán, Tatiana Paredes, Ginevra Floridi, Filippo Temporin, Laura Sochas, Ewa Batyra, Joaquín Prieto, Kate Summers, and many others. I cannot thank Tom Paskhalis and Tom Chadwick enough for being there for me. Infinite gratitude to my family. Amelia and Enio, my parents, have made it their life’s project to support me and my siblings. I can only hope to make them proud. I will always be grateful to my siblings, Enio and Irene – I would not have made it this far without them. The same goes for Roberto Sarti, a childhood friend. I would finally like to thank Johanna Salmi, from whom I have learnt so much. The thesis is dedicated to the survivors of mass violence in Guatemala, whose plight has been ignored all too often. This thesis was funded by a PhD Studentship from the London School of Economics. 6 Contents List of Tables List of Figures Abbreviations and acronyms Chapter 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 17 1.1. Armed conflicts, massacres, and demography ..................................................... 17 1.2. This thesis .................................................................................................................. 26 Chapter 2 Historical context ............................................................................................. 31 2.1. Introduction............................................................................................................... 31 2.2. Country context: Guatemala ................................................................................... 31 2.3. Historical background .............................................................................................