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Hezbollah's Syrian Quagmire
Hezbollah’s Syrian Quagmire BY MATTHEW LEVITT ezbollah – Lebanon’s Party of God – is many things. It is one of the dominant political parties in Lebanon, as well as a social and religious movement catering first and fore- Hmost (though not exclusively) to Lebanon’s Shi’a community. Hezbollah is also Lebanon’s largest militia, the only one to maintain its weapons and rebrand its armed elements as an “Islamic resistance” in response to the terms of the Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon’s civil war and called for all militias to disarm.1 While the various wings of the group are intended to complement one another, the reality is often messier. In part, that has to do with compartmen- talization of the group’s covert activities. But it is also a factor of the group’s multiple identities – Lebanese, pan-Shi’a, pro-Iranian – and the group’s multiple and sometimes competing goals tied to these different identities. Hezbollah insists that it is Lebanese first, but in fact, it is an organization that always acts out of its self-interests above its purported Lebanese interests. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Hezbollah also has an “expansive global network” that “is sending money and operatives to carry out terrorist attacks around the world.”2 Over the past few years, a series of events has exposed some of Hezbollah’s covert and militant enterprises in the region and around the world, challenging the group’s standing at home and abroad. Hezbollah operatives have been indicted for the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri by the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) in The Hague,3 arrested on charges of plotting attacks in Nigeria,4 and convicted on similar charges in Thailand and Cyprus.5 Hezbollah’s criminal enterprises, including drug running and money laundering from South America to Africa to the Middle East, have been targeted by law enforcement and regulatory agen- cies. -
An International Armed Conflict of Low Intensity
THE WAR REPORT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN: AN INTERNATIONAL ARMED CONFLICT OF LOW INTENSITY Aeria view of the Persian Gulf, © NASA DECEMBER 2019 I MILOŠ HRNJAZ THE GENEVA ACADEMY A JOINT CENTER OF Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammed Mosaddeq, pushed CLASSIFICATION OF THE CONFLICT for nationalization of the oil fields and the Shah signed The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of this decision. The response of the British was harsh as they Iran were engaged in an international armed conflict (IAC) saw oil from Iran as a strategic interest. Both Iranians and in June 2019 by virtue of Iran’s shooting down a US military the British expected the support of the US. The Americans drone and the alleged counter cyber-attack by the US. pushed Britain to cancel plans for a military invasion, so the British decided to look for alternative ways to overthrow Mosaddeq. The new US administration wasn’t impressed HISTORY OF THE CONFLICT with Mosaddeq either (especially his flirting with the USSR and the communist Tudeh Party of Iran), so it decided to BACKGROUND actively participate in his overthrow and arrest. This was It has been more than 160 years since the first Treaty perceived by Iranians as the ultimate betrayal by America of Friendship and Commerce was signed between Iran and the event played an important role in the development and the US, exactly 140 years since the first US warship of Iranian political identity and anti-Americanism since entered the Persian Gulf and almost 140 years since Iran then.5 Mosadeqq became the brave figure who represented (Persia) and the US established diplomatic relations.1 Since the fight for independent Iran, free from the influence of then, their relationship has oscillated between cooperation the West. -
Iran's Gray Zone Strategy
Iran’s Gray Zone Strategy Cornerstone of its Asymmetric Way of War By Michael Eisenstadt* ince the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has distinguished itself (along with Russia and China) as one of the world’s foremost “gray zone” actors.1 For nearly four decades, however, the United States has struggled to respond effectively to this asymmetric “way of war.” Washington has often Streated Tehran with caution and granted it significant leeway in the conduct of its gray zone activities due to fears that U.S. pushback would lead to “all-out” war—fears that the Islamic Republic actively encourages. Yet, the very purpose of this modus operandi is to enable Iran to pursue its interests and advance its anti-status quo agenda while avoiding escalation that could lead to a wider conflict. Because of the potentially high costs of war—especially in a proliferated world—gray zone conflicts are likely to become increasingly common in the years to come. For this reason, it is more important than ever for the United States to understand the logic underpinning these types of activities, in all their manifestations. Gray Zone, Asymmetric, and Hybrid “Ways of War” in Iran’s Strategy Gray zone warfare, asymmetric warfare, and hybrid warfare are terms that are often used interchangeably, but they refer neither to discrete forms of warfare, nor should they be used interchangeably—as they often (incor- rectly) are. Rather, these terms refer to that aspect of strategy that concerns how states employ ways and means to achieve national security policy ends.2 Means refer to the diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and cyber instruments of national power; ways describe how these means are employed to achieve the ends of strategy. -
Surprise, Intelligence Failure, and Mass Casualty Terrorism
SURPRISE, INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, AND MASS CASUALTY TERRORISM by Thomas E. Copeland B.A. Political Science, Geneva College, 1991 M.P.I.A., University of Pittsburgh, 1992 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2006 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH FACULTY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Thomas E. Copeland It was defended on April 12, 2006 and approved by Davis Bobrow, Ph.D. Donald Goldstein, Ph.D. Dennis Gormley Phil Williams, Ph.D. Dissertation Director ii © 2006 Thomas E. Copeland iii SURPRISE, INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, AND MASS CASUALTY TERRORISM Thomas E. Copeland, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2006 This study aims to evaluate whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. This study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. -
The Iranian Revolution in 1979
Demonstrations of the Iranian People’s Mujahideens (Warriors) during the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Dr. Ali Shariati, an Iranian leftist on the left. Ayatollah Khomeini on the right. The Iranian Revolution Gelvin, ch. 17 & 18 & other sources, notes by Denis Bašić The Pahlavi Dynasty • could hardly be called a “dynasty,” for it had only two rulers - Reza Shah Pahlavi (ruled 1926-1941) and his son Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi (ruled 1941-1979). • The son came to power after his father was deposed by the Allies (the Russian and British forces) due to his alliance with the Nazi Germany. • The Allies reestablished the majlis and allowed the organization of trade unions and political parties in order to limit the power of the new shah and to prevent him from following his father’s independence course. • Much to the chagrin of the British and Americans, the most popular party proved to be Tudeh - the communist party with more than 100,000 members. • The second Shah’s power was further eroded when in 1951 Muhammad Mossadegh was elected the prime minister on a platform that advocated nationalizing the oil industry and restricting the shah’s power. • Iranian Prime Minister 1951–3. A prominent parliamentarian. He was twice Muhammad appointed to that office by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, after a Mossadegh positive vote of inclination by the 1882-1967 parliament. Mossadegh was a nationalist and passionately opposed foreign intervention in Iran. He was also the architect of the nationalization of the Iranian oil industry, which had been under British control through the Anglo- Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), today known as British Petroleum (BP). -
Iran, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 31:169–181, 2008 Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 1057-610X print / 1521-0731 online DOI: 10.1080/10576100701878424 Iran, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction DANIEL BYMAN Center for Peace and Security Studies Georgetown University Washington, DC, USA and Saban Center for Middle East Policy Brookings Institution Washington, DC, USA This article reviews Iran’s past and current use of terrorism and assesses why U.S. attempts to halt Iran’s efforts have met with little success. With this assessment in mind, it argues that Iran is not likely transfer chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons to terrorist groups for several reasons. First, providing terrorists with such unconventional Downloaded By: [Georgetown University] At: 15:20 19 March 2008 weapons offers Iran few tactical advantages as these groups are able to operate effectively with existing methods and weapons. Second, Iran has become more cautious in its backing of terrorists in recent years. And third, Tehran is highly aware that any major escalation in its support for terrorism would incur U.S. wrath and international condemnation. The article concludes by offering recommendations for decreasing Iran’s support for terrorism. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has been one of the world’s most active sponsors of terrorism. Tehran has armed, trained, financed, inspired, organized, and otherwise supported dozens of violent groups over the years.1 Iran has backed not only groups in its Persian Gulf neighborhood, but also terrorists and radicals in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Bosnia, the Philippines, and elsewhere.2 This support remains strong even today: the U.S. -
U.S. Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East
U.S. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST JAMES F. JEFFREY MICHAEL EISENSTADT U.S. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST JAMES F. JEFFREY MICHAEL EISENSTADT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY WWW.WASHINGTONINSTITUTE.ORG The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. Policy Focus 143, April 2016 All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publica- tion may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing fromthe publisher. ©2016 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1111 19th Street NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 Design: 1000colors Photo: An F-16 from the Egyptian Air Force prepares to make contact with a KC-135 from the 336th ARS during in-flight refueling training. (USAF photo by Staff Sgt. Amy Abbott) Contents Acknowledgments V I. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF U.S. MILITARY OPERATIONS 1 James F. Jeffrey 1. Introduction to Part I 3 2. Basic Principles 5 3. U.S. Strategy in the Middle East 8 4. U.S. Military Engagement 19 5. Conclusion 37 Notes, Part I 39 II. RETHINKING U.S. MILITARY STRATEGY 47 Michael Eisenstadt 6. Introduction to Part II 49 7. American Sisyphus: Impact of the Middle Eastern Operational Environment 52 8. Disjointed Strategy: Aligning Ways, Means, and Ends 58 9. -
Shooting Down Civilian Aircraft: Is There an International Law Brian E
Journal of Air Law and Commerce Volume 72 | Issue 3 Article 10 2007 Shooting down Civilian Aircraft: Is There an International Law Brian E. Foont Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.smu.edu/jalc Recommended Citation Brian E. Foont, Shooting down Civilian Aircraft: sI There an International Law, 72 J. Air L. & Com. 695 (2007) https://scholar.smu.edu/jalc/vol72/iss3/10 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at SMU Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Air Law and Commerce by an authorized administrator of SMU Scholar. For more information, please visit http://digitalrepository.smu.edu. SHOOTING DOWN CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT: IS THERE AN INTERNATIONAL LAW? BRIAN E. FOONT* TABLE OF CONTENTS PRO LO G U E .............................................. 696 INTRODUCTION ......................................... 697 I. BACKGROUND .................................... 698 A. PRESIDENT TITO'S LETTER ...................... 700 II. SOURCES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW ............ 701 III. POST-WORLD WAR II INCIDENTS ............... 704 A. SOVIET UNION-SHOOT DOWN OF FRENCH COMMERCIAL AIRLINER .......................... 704 B. CHINA-SHOOT DowN OF CATHAY PACIFIC FLIGHT ......................................... 705 C. BULGARIA-SHOOT DowN OF ISRAELI EL AL PASSENGER JET .................................. 705 D. ISRAEL-SHOOT DowN OF LIBYAN AIRLINES PASSENGER JET .................................. 706 E. SOVIET UNION-SHOOT DowN OF KOREAN AIRLINES PASSENGER JET (FLIGHT 902) .......... 707 F. SOVIET UNION-SHOOT DowN OF KOREAN AIRLINES PASSENGER JET (FLIGHT 007) AND ARTICLE 3 BIS TO THE CHICAGO CONVENTION .. 707 G. UNITED STATES-SHOOT DOWN OF IRANIAN AIRLINES PASSENGER JET (FLIGHT 655) .......... 711 * The Law Offices of Brian E. Foont, PLLC; LL.M., Georgetown University Law Center; J.D., American University Washington College of Law; B.A., University of Rochester. -
The Khobar Towers Bombing Incident
PRESS RELEASE House National Security Committee Floyd D. Spence, Chairman Contact: Maureen Cragin FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Ryan Vaart August 14, 1996 (202) 225-2539 STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN FLOYD D. SPENCE ON THE REPORT ON THE BOMBING OF KHOBAR TOWERS “In the wake of the June 25 bombing of the American compound at Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, the House Committee on National Security sent a delegation of professional staff members to Saudi Arabia to conduct a preliminary investigation of the incident. “Although the professionalism and courage of the men and women who suffered this terrible disaster is apparent and should be a source of pride for all Americans, the bombing raises issues of intelligence failures and operational deficiencies that at least suggest that military leaders and policymakers were unaware of the potential risks that U.S. service personnel faced in Saudi Arabia. “First, as the report indicates, the performance of the troops living in Khobar Towers and stationed in the Dhahran area was superb. As a result of the rapid reaction of the Air Force Special Police who observed the bomb-laden truck and immediately began to evacuate the building, as well as the efforts of doctors, medical personnel and soldiers to save lives, a much larger tragedy was almost certainly averted. “But individual professionalism and heroism during the bombing cannot obscure larger problems that may have contributed to the unpreparedness of U.S. troops in the face of a serious terrorist threat. Intelligence failures left the military personnel in Khobar Towers, as well as the 4404th wing’s leaders, largely unaware of the magnitude of the threat they faced. -
Hizbullah Under Fire in Syria | the Washington Institute
MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds Hizbullah Under Fire in Syria by Matthew Levitt, Nadav Pollak Jun 9, 2016 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Matthew Levitt Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute. Nadav Pollak Nadav Pollak is a former Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation fellow at The Washington Institute. Articles & Testimony Last month's assassination of a senior Hizbullah commander, apparently by Syrian rebel groups, demonstrates the growing threat the organization faces from fellow Arabs and Muslims. he death of senior Hizbullah commander Mustafa Badreddine in Syria in May left the group reeling, but not for T the reason most people think. True, it lost an especially qualified commander with a unique pedigree as the brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyeh, with whom Badreddine plotted devastating terror attacks going back to the Beirut bombings in the 1980s. And, at the time of his death, Badreddine was dual-hatted as the commander of both the group's international terrorist network (the Islamic Jihad Organisation or External Security Organisation) and its significant military deployment in Syria. The loss of such a senior and seasoned commander is no small setback for Hizbullah. But the real reason Badreddine's death has Hizbullah on edge is not the loss of the man, per se, but the fact that the group's arch enemy, Israel, was seemingly not responsible. Hizbullah, it appears, now has more immediate enemies than Israel -- and that has the self-described "resistance" organisation tied up in knots. -
Uss "Vincennes"
S. Hao, 100-1085 INVESTIGATION IfTO THE DOWNING OF AN IRANIAN AIRLINER BY THE U.S.S. "VINCENNES" HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDREDTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION SEPTEMBER 8, 1988 Printed for the use of the Committee on Armed Services U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 90-853 WASHINGTON : 1989 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402 03o -" COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES SAM NUNN, Georgia, Chairman JOHN C. STENNIS, Mississippi JOHN W. WARNER, Virginia J. JAMES EXON, Nebraska STROM THURMOND, South Carolina CARL LEVIN, Michigan GORDON J. HUMPHREY, New Hampshire P)WARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts WILLIAM S. COHEN, Maine JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico DAN QUAYLE, Indiana ALAN J. DIXON, Illinois PETE WILSON, California JOHN GLENN, Ohio PHIL GRAMM, Texas ALBERT GORE, JR., Tennessee STEVEN D. SYMMS, Idaho TIMOTHY E. WIRTH, Colorado JOHN McCAIN, Arizona RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama ARNOLD L. PuNARO, Staff Director CAu M. SMrm, Staff Director for the Minority CHRISTINS COWART DAUTH, Chief Clerk (II) CONTENTS CHRONOLOGICAL LIST OF WITNESSES Page Fogarty, Rear Adm. William M., USN, Director of Policy and Plans, U.S. Central Command, and Head of the Investigation Team accompanied by Capt. George N. Gee, USN, Director, Surface Combat Systems Division, ice of the Chief of Naval Operations and Capt. Richard D. DeBobes, Legal Adviser and Legislative Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of S taff . .......................................................................................................................... 4 Kelly, Rear Adm. Robert J., USN, Vice Director for Operations, Joint Staff ..... 17 (III) INVESTIGATION INTO THE DOWNING OF AN IRANIAN AIRLINER BY THE U.S.S. -
Khamenei Uses Iraq War Anniversary to Reinforce Iranian Steadfastness by Omer Carmi
MENU Policy Analysis / Policy Alert Khamenei Uses Iraq War Anniversary to Reinforce Iranian Steadfastness by Omer Carmi Sep 22, 2020 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Omer Carmi Omer Carmi was a 2017 military fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis Rather than explicitly addressing Washington’s reactivation of sanctions, the Supreme Leader sought to convince domestic listeners that Iran can ‘resist’ external pressures and the latest COVID-19 wave on its own. upreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s speech at the annual Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership S gathering tends to be closely analyzed by Iran watchers for good reason. As with his yearly Nowruz speeches, he often uses the event to signal domestic and foreign audiences about his approach to international affairs. Most famously, the emphasis on “heroic flexibility” in his 2013 speech foreshadowed Tehran’s signing of an interim nuclear agreement with the P5+1 a few weeks later and the adoption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015. Last year’s speech took a different tone—Khamenei expressed confidence that the regime could cope with U.S. pressure and warned that Washington’s goal was to eliminate the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary character and force it to conform with the American global order. In doing so, he essentially previewed months of Iranian defiance on regional and nuclear issues. This year, the setting changed once again. Iran is in the midst of a third wave of coronavirus with thousands of infections per day, and the renewed outbreak apparently convinced the regime to cancel Khamenei’s in-person speech before a large IRGC gathering.