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Alternative Management Strategies for Southeast Australian Commonwealth Fisheries: Stage 2: Quantitative Management Strategy Evaluation

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Alternative Management Strategies for Southeast Australian Commonwealth Fisheries: Stage 2: Quantitative Management Strategy Evaluation Alternative Management Strategies for Southeast Australian Commonwealth Fisheries: Stage 2: Quantitative Management Strategy Evaluation Elizabeth A. Fulton Anthony D.M. Smith David C. Smith June 2007 Australian Fisheries Management Authority Fisheries Research and Development Corporation Alternative Management Strategies for Southeast Australian Commonwealth Fisheries: Stage 2: Quantitative Management Strategy Evaluation Elizabeth A. Fulton Anthony D.M. Smith June 2007 Australian Fisheries Management Authority Fisheries Research and Development Corporation ISBN - 978-1-921232-86-2 Quantitative MSE of Alternative Management Strategies for Southeast Australian Fisheries Enquiries should be addressed to: Dr Elizabeth Fulton CSIRO Division of Marine and Atmospheric Research GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia +61 3 62325018 +61 3 62325053 [email protected] Distribution list Project Manager On-line approval to publish Client Authors Other CSIRO Staff National Library State Library CMAR Library as pdf (Meredith Hepburn) CMAR Web Manager as pdf (Diana Reale) Important Notice © Copyright Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (‘CSIRO’) Australia 2005 All rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO. The results and analyses contained in this Report are based on a number of technical, circumstantial or otherwise specified assumptions and parameters. The user must make its own assessment of the suitability for its use of the information or material contained in or generated from the Report. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO excludes all liability to any party for expenses, losses, damages and costs arising directly or indirectly from using this Report. Use of this Report The use of this Report is subject to the terms on which it was prepared by CSIRO. In particular, the Report may only be used for the following purposes. This Report may be copied for distribution within the Client’s organisation; the information in this Report may be used by the entity for which it was prepared (“the Client”), or by the Client’s contractors and agents, for the Client’s internal business operations (but not licensing to third parties); extracts of the Report distributed for these purposes must clearly note that the extract is part of a larger Report prepared by CSIRO for the Client. The Report must not be used as a means of endorsement without the prior written consent of CSIRO. The name, trade mark or logo of CSIRO must not be used without the prior written consent of CSIRO. Quantitative MSE of Alternative Management Strategies for Southeast Australian Fisheries Contents i CONTENTS CONTENTS ........................................................................................................ I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 1.1 The AMS study ................................................................................ 1 1.2 The biophysical realm..................................................................... 2 1.3 The human dimension .................................................................... 3 2. ATLANTIS MODEL ................................................................................... 8 2.1 Geography ....................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 Canyons.......................................................................................10 2.2 Biophysical Environment ............................................................. 11 2.2.1 Physical Environment ................................................................11 2.2.2 Ecological Components.............................................................18 2.3 Fishing Fleets ................................................................................ 29 2.4 Socio-economics........................................................................... 33 2.4.1 Economic indicators ..................................................................33 2.4.2 Fleet and port status ..................................................................36 2.4.3 Effort allocation ..........................................................................37 2.4.4 Quota trading ..............................................................................38 2.4.5 Compliance .................................................................................40 2.4.6 Community and Operator perception .......................................40 2.5 Assessment ................................................................................... 41 2.6 Management .................................................................................. 43 2.6.1 Harvest strategies and RBCs ....................................................43 2.6.2 Regional, Companion and Basket TACs ..................................47 2.6.3 Spatial management...................................................................48 2.7 Performance Measures................................................................. 48 2.7.1 Integrated Measures...................................................................48 2.8 Scenarios ....................................................................................... 51 2.8.1 Scenario 1 ...................................................................................53 2.8.2 Scenario 3 ...................................................................................59 2.8.3 Scenario 4 ...................................................................................64 2.8.4 Scenario 4 – Modified Shark Fishery........................................68 2.8.5 Scenario 9 ...................................................................................68 Quantitative MSE of Alternative Management Strategies for Southeast Australian Fisheries Contents ii 2.8.6 Scenario 10 – Basic.................................................................... 74 2.8.7 Scenario 10 – Integrated Management..................................... 75 2.8.8 Scenario 10 – Strong Link Companion TACs .......................... 78 2.8.9 Scenario 10 – Weak Link Companion TACs ............................ 78 2.8.10 Scenario 10 – Gulper shark Closures....................................... 78 3. HISTORICAL MODEL TIME SERIES ..................................................... 79 3.1 Virgin Biomasses .......................................................................... 79 3.2 Parameter Sensitivity and Model Uncertainty............................. 83 3.3 Landed catch time series.............................................................. 85 3.4 Biomass time series.................................................................... 106 3.4.1 Pelagic Invertebrates ............................................................... 106 3.4.2 Benthic Invertebrates and Macrophytes ................................ 108 3.4.3 Fin-fish ...................................................................................... 110 3.4.4 Chondrichthyans...................................................................... 115 3.4.5 Atlantis vs Single Species Assessments............................... 117 3.4.6 Mammals and Seabirds ........................................................... 123 3.4.7 Nutrients, Detritus and Bacteria ............................................. 125 3.5 Changes in community structure............................................... 128 3.5.1 The Perturbed states................................................................ 131 3.6 Dynamic Effort Time Series........................................................ 139 4. SCENARIO SPECIFIC MSE RESULTS ................................................ 142 4.1 Scenario 1 .................................................................................... 142 4.2 Scenario 3 .................................................................................... 147 4.3 Scenario 4 .................................................................................... 154 4.4 Scenario 9 .................................................................................... 160 4.5 Scenario 10 .................................................................................. 165 4.6 Results of the Variant Scenarios................................................ 171 4.6.1 Climate Change ........................................................................ 171 4.6.2 Lower discard rates ................................................................. 171 4.6.3 Cheaper (or negligible) switching costs ................................ 172 4.6.4 Buybacks .................................................................................. 172 4.6.5 Scenario 3 Without Spatial Management ............................... 174 4.6.6 Scenario 4 – Modified Shark Fishery...................................... 175 4.6.7 Scenario 10 – Integrated Management................................... 177 4.6.8 Scenario 10 – Companion TACs............................................. 177 4.6.9 Scenario 10 – Gulper shark Closures..................................... 179 5. COMPARATIVE MSE RESULTS .......................................................... 180 Quantitative MSE of Alternative Management Strategies for Southeast Australian Fisheries Contents iii 5.1 Industry Performance
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