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4 Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment 4 HAZARD ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT 44 CFR Requirement 201.6(c)(2): [The plan shall include] a risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce the losses from identified hazards. Local risk assessments must provide sufficient information to enable the jurisdiction to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards. As defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), risk is a combination of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. “It is the impact that a hazard would have on people, services, facilities, and structures in a community and refers to the likelihood of a hazard event resulting in an adverse condition that causes injury or damage.” The risk assessment process identifies and profiles relevant hazards and assesses the exposure of lives, property, and infrastructure to these hazards. The process allows for a better understanding of a jurisdiction’s potential risk to natural hazards and provides a framework for developing and prioritizing mitigation actions to reduce risk from future hazard events. This risk assessment builds upon the methodology described in the 2013 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Handbook, which recommends a four-step process for conducting a risk assessment: 1) Describe Hazards 2) Identify Community Assets 3) Analyze Risks 4) Summarize Vulnerability Data collected through this process has been incorporated into the following sections of this chapter: Section 4.1 Hazard Identification identifies the hazards that threaten the planning area and describes why some hazards have been omitted from further consideration. Section 4.2 Hazard Profiles discusses the threat to the planning area and describes previous occurrences of hazard events, the likelihood of future occurrences, and the County’s vulnerability to hazard events. 4.1 Hazard Identification Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type…of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) conducted a hazard identification study to determine the hazards that threaten the planning area. Converse County 4.1 Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2018 4.1.1 Results and Methodology Using existing hazards data, plans from participating jurisdictions, and input gained through planning and public meetings, the HMPC agreed upon a list of hazards that could affect the County. Hazards data from FEMA, the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security (including the 2016 State of Wyoming Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), and many other sources were examined to assess the significance of these hazards to the planning area. The hazards evaluated in this plan include those that have occurred historically or have the potential to cause significant human and/or monetary losses in the future. The final list of natural hazards identified and investigated for the 2017 Converse County Multi- Hazard Mitigation Plan includes: • Dam Failure • Drought • Earthquake • Expansive Soils • Flood • Hazardous Materials • High Winds and Downbursts • Landslide/Rockfall/Debris Flow • Severe Thunderstorms (includes Hail and Lightning) • Tornado • Severe Winter Weather • Wildfire Members of the HMPC used a hazards worksheet to rate the significance of hazards that could potentially affect the County. Significance was measured in general terms, focusing on key criteria such as the likelihood of the event, past occurrences, spatial extent, and damage and casualty potential. Table 4.1 represents the worksheet used to identify and rate the hazards, and is a composite that includes input from all the participating jurisdictions. Note that the significance of the hazard may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Jurisdictional variation is summarized in significance tables at the end of each hazard profile. Converse County 4.2 Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2018 Table 4.1: Converse County Hazard Significance Summary Table Probability of Spatial Magnitude/ Overall Hazard Future Extent Severity Significance Occurrence Dam Failure Limited Limited Unlikely Low Drought Extensive Limited Likely High Earthquake Significant Critical Occasional High Expansive Soils Significant Limited Likely Low Flood/Flash Flood Significant Limited Likely Medium Hazardous Materials Limited Limited Highly Likely Medium Landslide/Mudslide/Rockfall Limited Limited Likely Medium Thunderstorm (including Extensive Limited Highly Likely Medium Lightning and Hail) Tornado/Wind Negligible Limited Highly Likely Low Wildland Fire Extensive Critical Highly Likely High Winter Weather Extensive Limited Highly Likely Medium Geographic Extent Probability of Future Occurrences Negligible: Less than 10 percent of planning area or Unlikely: Less than 1 percent probability of occurrence in isolated single-point occurrences the next year, or has a recurrence interval of greater Limited: 10 to 25 percent of the planning area or limited than every 100 years. single-point occurrences Occasional: Between a 1 and 10 percent probability of Significant: 25 to 75 percent of planning area or frequent occurrence in the next year, or has a recurrence interval single-point occurrences of 11 to 100 years. Extensive: 75 to 100 percent of planning area or Likely: Between 10 and 90 percent probability of consistent single-point occurrences occurrence in the next year, or has a recurrence interval Potential Magnitude/Severity of 1 to 10 years Negligible: Less than 10 percent of property is severely Highly Likely: Between 90 and 100 percent probability of damaged, facilities and services are unavailable for less occurrence in the next year, or has a recurrence interval than 24 hours, injuries and illnesses are treatable with of less than 1 year. first aid or within the response capability of the Overall Significance jurisdiction. Low: Two or more of the criteria fall in the lower Limited: 10 to 25 percent of property is severely classifications or the event has a minimal impact on the damaged, facilities and services are unavailable planning area. This rating is also sometimes used for between 1 and 7 days, injuries and illnesses require hazards with a minimal or unknown record of sophisticated medical support that does not strain the occurrences/impacts or for hazards with minimal response capability of the jurisdiction, or results in very mitigation potential. few permanent disabilities. Medium: The criteria fall mostly in the middle ranges of Critical: 25 to 50 percent of property is severely classifications and the event’s impacts on the planning damaged, facilities and services are unavailable or area are noticeable but not devastating. This rating is severely hindered for 1 to 2 weeks, injuries and illnesses also sometimes utilized for hazards with a high impact overwhelm medical support for a brief period of time, or rating but an extremely low occurrence rating. result in many permanent disabilities and a few deaths. High: The criteria consistently fall along the high ranges Catastrophic: More than 50 percent of property is of the classification and the event exerts significant and severely damaged, facilities and services are unavailable frequent impacts on the planning area. This rating is also or hindered for more than 2 weeks, the medical sometimes utilized for hazards with a high psychological response system is overwhelmed for an extended period impact or for hazards that the jurisdiction identifies as of time or many deaths occur. particularly relevant. Converse County 4.3 Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2018 Hazards Considered but not Profiled There are several other hazards identified in the Wyoming State Hazard Mitigation Plan that could affect the county but are not profiled further for mitigation purposes due to very low probability or minimal vulnerability. These hazards include liquefaction, mine subsidence, snow avalanche, space weather, and windblown deposits. There has been little, if any, reported damage from liquefaction throughout the state, and the geologic characteristics of the County do not indicate any risk for Converse County. There is a high-level discussion of liquefaction included in Section 4.3.3 Earthquake. The Wyoming State HMP notes that liquefaction is generally isolated to the counties in the northwest corner of the state. Avalanche conditions may exist in the Laramie Range south of Douglas and Glenrock. Thousands of acres, as well as numerous well-maintained campgrounds, are managed by the U.S. Forest Service, including the land surrounding Laramie Peak (10,272 feet) in the Southern region of the County. These areas are susceptible to minor avalanche hazards, but the risk does not affect built areas. There are mines present in Glenrock that pose a threat to the community. However, because the hazard is isolated to a few specific areas and is not significant for the county at large, the issue is discussed in Section 4.3.8 Landslide/Rockfall/Debris Flow. Windblown deposits have not caused issues in the past and would likely have nuisance impacts if ancient deposits are re-mobilized. Regarding volcanism, the county and region is potentially vulnerable to an eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera due to its proximity to Yellowstone National Park. A large-scale eruption would have catastrophic global impacts. Because of the overly long expected occurrence of frequency (greater than 10,000 years)
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