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BANCOSTA Weekly Market Report weekly market report Week 23/2021 (05 Jun – 11 Jun) Comment: China’s coal imports COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 23/2021 2 CHINA’S COAL IMPORTS 2020 proved to be a truly terrible Mainland China’s seaborne coal China’s imports so far in 2021. year for global seaborne coal trade. imports in the 12 months of 2020 Arrivals from Indonesia increased by Total global loadings in the 12 declined by -8.2% y-o-y to 242.0 mln +8.7% y-o-y to 56.9 mln t in the first months of 2020 were down -12.7% tonnes. 5 months of 2021. year-on-year to 1130 million tonnes, However, this was very uneven, with The second largest supplier is now according to vessels tracking data the year starting strongly and things Russia, accounting for a 16% share. from Refinitiv. really deteriorating towards the end. Shipments from Russia to China Despite all the global talk about In 1Q 2020, China imported 69.4 mln increased by +29.8% y-o-y to 15.4 “going green” and “fight on carbon”, tonnes of coal, which was a positive mln tonnes in the first 5 months of coal trade was still growing strongly +14.8% y-o-y increase, in a quarter 2021, from 11.9 mln tonnes in the until 2019. It expanded by +2.5% in normally affected by the CNY. same period of 2020. 2019 and by 3.2% in 2018. In 2Q 2020, imports stayed at Volumes from South Africa surged However, Covid-19 and its around 70.4 mln tonnes, which was by +307.7% y-o-y to 5.2 mln tonnes associated lockdowns proved a body still +1.8% y-o-y. so far this year, from just 1.3 mln blow. In 3Q 2020, imports to China tonnes in the same period last year. declined to 58.1 mln tonnes, down South Africa now accounts for 5.3% In 2021 things are still very bad, but -20.6% y-o-y. we are seeing some modest signs of of China’s total seaborne imports. recovery, or at least stabilisation. In 4Q 2020, imports declined further Perhaps surprisingly, shipments from to 44.1 mln tonnes, -27.5% y-o-y. In the first 5 months of 2021, global the USA to China also surged, by seaborne coal trade declined by In the first quarter of 2021, China +328.3% y-o-y to 5.1 mln t in the first -1.9% y-o-y to 476.8 mln tonnes. imported 61.0 mln tonnes, which 5 months of 2021, from 1.2 mln represents an improvement tonnes in the same period last year. However, the worst was in the first compared to the second half of last quarter, as 1Q 2021 recorded a The USA now account for 5.3% of year, but is still down -12.1% from China’s seaborne coal imports. -8.4% y-o-y decline to 279.3 mln t. the first quarter of 2020. Shipments from Ukraine also Instead, in April 2021 trade April 2021 and May 2021 were no rebounded to 96.4 mln tonnes, increased by +39.8% y-o-y to 3.6 mln better, with -27.2% and -13.4% y-o-y tonnes. which was +6.3% up y-o-y compared respectively. to the same month last year, From Canada volumes increased by although it was still -10.5% down Overall in the first 5 months of 2021, +19.7% y-o-y to 3.3 mln tonnes. from April 2019. Mainland China imported 97.0 mln tonnes of coal, which represents a From Australia, shipments are down In May 2021 global coal trade -15.3% y-o-y decline from the same -94.4% y-o-y to just 2.5 mln tonnes increased further to 101.1 mln 5 month period last year. in the first 5 months of 2021, down tonnes, which was +12.0% y-o-y from 37.0 mln tonnes in the same compared to May 2020, and the In terms of sources of the shipments, period last year. things are changing quite a bit. highest monthly figure since March Australia’s share of the Chinese 2020. However, this was still down Indonesia is by far the top supplier of market is now just 2%, from 32% in -10.9% from May 2019. coal to China, accounting for 59% of this period last year. China - Coal Imports by Source in Jan-May China - Monthly Coal Imports - Seasonality (Jun 2021 ; source: refinitiv ; seaborne only ; all bulkers ; in mln tonnes) (Jun 2021 ; source: refinitiv ; seaborne only ; all bulkers ; in mln tonnes) 60.0 57 30.0 52 52 50.0 25.0 40.0 37 20.0 33 30.0 15.0 mln tonnes mln mln tonnes mln 20.0 10.0 15 12 10 10.0 5.0 5 5 6 5 3 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 2 2 0.0 0.0 Indonesia Russia S Africa USA Ukraine Canada Australia Others/ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Unknown 2019 (1-5) 2020 (1-5) 2021 (1-5) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CHARTERING MARKET REPORT – WEEK 23/2021 3 CAPESIZE MARKET The Capesize market has rebounded, On the Saldanha Bay/China route, Because of the strong demand with the market gaining nearly the jump was even more evident, Brazil/China, back haul also recorded $7,000 in a week that ended on with C17 up nearly three dollars by higher numbers, with the Friday at $27,750/d, with a surge in the end of the week, trading in the Tubarao/Rotterdam reaching rates registered in all basins around mid-US dollar 19's range. $11.30/mt. midweek. Mixed signals from Brazil, with a In the Atlantic, the transatlantic The standard C5 West generally strong market for mid-July rapidly reached $26,000/d from Australia/China rate remained flat in dates and lower numbers discussed $16,875/d of the previous week due the mid 9's until Thursday, when the for several spot vessels in SAfr. to lack of available tonnage and front market jumped and the mid usd 10's However, after some low fixtures haul was traded again close to was fixed for end-of-June dates. early in the week for prompt $50,000/d, up by almost $12,000. On Thursday, the route gained positions, such as 20Jjune onwards at Due to upgoing forward freight, another dollar, ending the week at very low USD 20's, the market quickly period levels also improved, with mid-US dollar 11's for very late June improved, with mid USD 20's agreed mid/high $20,000 discussed for a l/c, bringing the TCE to $30,000/d for both for spot and early July dates. one-year period bss dely ppt China. Pacific RV. CAPESIZE Unit 11-Jun 4-Jun W-o-W Y-o-Y BCI TC & CAPESIZE 1-YR TC (USD/DAY) 50,000 BCI TC Average usd/day 27,752 20,933 +32.6% +159.9% 40,000 C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 26,250 16,875 +55.6% +254.7% 30,000 C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 26,086 20,791 +25.5% +114.8% 20,000 C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 30,048 23,333 +28.8% +144.1% 10,000 Newcastlemax 1-Y Period usd/day 33,000 29,500 +11.9% +112.9% 0 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Capesize 1-Y Period usd/day 29,500 26,000 +13.5% +118.5% 1-YR TC BCI TC PANAMAX MARKET The North Atlantic has been the key Murmansk to Med redely Gibraltar at After a couple of flat weeks, the factor in the Panamax market's $24,000 while long front haul biz Pacific market has rebounded, aided improvement, as has the ECSA have been paid around $40,000 like by strong activity in ECSA and fervent region, which has also pushed the bbg yulin , fixed at $39,000/d bss FFAs. significantly this week. Cont for trip via USG to China with Fixing rates in Australia reach Big premium still paid for India redely grains by Seatrans. $30,000/d again, while Indonesian : both from the baltic and usec : mv The Black Sea also pumped a lot this RV is assessed in the mid $20,000/d Beks Yilmaz 81/12 open Stade 17-18 week, with fixtures concluded in the and high $20,000/d for Panamax and Jun fixed tct via USEC redel India at mid 40s in the first part of the week Kamsarmax, respectively. around high $44,000’s/d by and with Owner now asking around Nopac had been relatively quiet for Amarante while Aquavita fixed mv $50,000/d bss Egypt Med for front the majority of the week, with no Loch Long (81,994 2013) bss haul to China with grains, which will relevant fixtures to report. Gibraltar 10/15 Jun tct via Baltic have to compete with vessel opening A few Panamaxes have been redely India at around $41,000/d ; WC India/PG rge, asking around mid- reported to be fixed for CIS biz in the Norden instead have fixed mv atlas low 30s bss dop for the same run. high $20,000/d bss dely N China. 75/12 dop aughinish for tct via BPI 82 TC & KAMSARMAX 1-YR TC (USD/DAY) 35,000 PANAMAX Unit 11-Jun 4-Jun W-o-W Y-o-Y 30,000 25,000 BPI 82 TC Average usd/day 29,718 26,400 +12.6% +302.1% 20,000 P1_82 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 28,700 23,295 +23.2% +640.6% 15,000 10,000 P2_82 Skaw-Gib Trip F.
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