Political Trends & Dynamics in Southeast Europe
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Briefing Political Trends & Dynamics in Southeast Europe September | October 2016 #SEESecurityTrends Political Trends & Dynamics in Southeast Europe #SEESecurityTrends A FES DIALOGUE SOUTHEAST EUROPE PROJECT 2016–2018 Peace and stability initiatives represent a decades-long cornerstone of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s work in southeastern Europe. Recent events have only reaffirmed the centrality of Southeast European stability with- in the broader continental security paradigm. Both democratization and socio-economic justice are intrinsic aspects of a larger progressive peace policy in the region, but so too are consistent threat assessments and ef- forts to prevent conflict before it erupts. Dialogue SOE aims to broaden the discourse on peace and stability in southeastern Europe and to counter the securitization of prevalent narratives by providing regular analy- sis that involves a comprehensive understanding of human security, including structural sources of conflict. The briefings cover fourteen countries in southeastern Europe: the seven post-Yugoslav countries and Alba- nia, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova. This is a joint project between the thirteen Frie- drich-Ebert-Stiftung offices in Southeast Europe and the Social Overview Service (SOS). Regional Developments tary procedure on October 14. Parliament will therefore have to vote on it again, but In this period almost all of Southeastern Europe this time a minimum of 71 votes are required was witnessing numerous significant events and for the law to be adopted. The Speaker of developments, such as snap elections in Croa- the Albanian Assembly, Ilir Meta, intervened tia and general and local elections in Montene- in the debate by stating that in view of di- gro. At the same time, Macedonia started pre- verging interpretations of the same Europe- paring for new elections while the talks about an Union Directive on waste import, the best the reunification of Cyprus and also negotia- solution would be to request a thorough and tions about the resolution of the Greek debt detailed expertise on this piece of legislation crisis continued. However, one event that above from the EU itself. Newspapers report that all others has the potential to have an impact the ruling majority might review the law and on the security situation in the region was the introduce some new amendments to it. Rep- referendum that was held in Bosnia and Her- resentatives of the Alliance Against Import zegovina’s Serb-dominated entity of Republika of Garbage, a civil society group objecting Srpska on September 25. This event had an im- the import of waste, said that they would pact across much of the former Yugoslavia, trig- rally again to protest against the import of gering talks of war unheard of since the late waste on October 30. 1990s. Although ostensibly the referendum was organized on the issue of Republika Srpska Day • Johannes Hahn, European Commissioner for and whether it should be celebrated on January European Neighborhood Policy & Enlarge- 9, it had far greater significance. By organizing ment Negotiations, helped generate a dip- the referendum, the authorities of Republika lomatic spat involving Albania, Greece and Srpska defied both Bosnia and Herzegovina’s the European Union when on September Constitutional Court and the Office of the High 28 he said that one bilateral issue the two Representative, the ad hoc international insti- countries needed to resolve was the status of tution established to oversee the implementa- Cham Albanians. Hahn was referring to an tion of the Dayton Peace Agreement. Already Albanian community who had lived in west- in August, Bosniak officials went on record say- ern Epirus in north-western Greece until 1944 ing that the referendum could be a prelude for when they were expelled for alleged collabo- another plebiscite – for the secession of Repub- ration with Nazi Germany during the Second lika Srpska from the rest of the country. Such World War. In the wake of Hahn’s comment, statements triggered a series of bellicose reac- Greece sent a protest note to the European tions from politicians and media in Bosnia and Union accusing the Commissioner of raising Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia in August and a non-issue and siding with Albania. Greek September. Foreign Minister Nikolaos Kotzias stated for the Greek daily Tribune, on October 16, that issues between the two countries should be Albania resolved before Albania could open acces- sion talks with the European Union. Many Key developments: MPs in Tirana interpreted this statement as a sign that Greece may block the opening of • On September 23, the Albanian Parliament accession talks between Albania and the Eu- passed a law allowing the import of waste. ropean Union. The law has been criticized by environmen- talists and opposition parties, which have • On October 25 the Albanian Constitutional called for a referendum on the issue. The Court decided to suspend one of the core waste is intended for recycling, but environ- laws on judicial reform – the Law on Reas- mentalists fear that the law, for which only sessment of Judges and Prosecutors, known 63 out of 140 MPs voted, would turn Albania as the ’vetting’ law. The Court accepted a re- into a dumping ground for Europe’s waste. quest from the main opposition Democratic Demonstrators took to the streets to protest Party to stall progress. The suspended law against the law on October 1. In the wake of aims to vet 800 judges and prosecutors on these protests, the Albanian President, Bujar their professional ability, moral integrity and Nishani, sent the law back into parliamen- level of independence from organized crime, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung corruption and political officials. The Demo- pendent Social-Democrats (SNSD), Milorad cratic Party considers the initiative, which is Dodik, initiated the referendum, which was backed by EU and US representatives, to be supported by all parties based in Republika a ’witch hunt’. Before making the final rul- Srpska. However, opposition leaders were ing, the Court decided to request an amicus critical towards the timing of the referen- curiae opinion from the Council of Europe’s dum – one week before local elections – ac- Venice Commission on whether the legisla- cusing Dodik of using it to boost support for tion was compatible with the Albanian con- the SNSD. Bosniak and Western officials fear stitution or not. This process is expected to that the referendum was a trial run for a take some months. Experts believe that this plebiscite on the secession of Republika Srp- move could jeopardise the country’s chances ska from the rest of the country. Moreover, of opening EU accession talks this year al- some analysts believe that the weakness of though Albania had been expecting to get the response from the European Union and a positive recommendation from the Euro- the United States may encourage Dodik in pean Union on November 9 for opening ac- this endeavour. Turnout was officially 55.78 cession talks. per cent of registered voters in Republika Srpska, of whom 99.81 per cent supported keeping January 9 as Republika Srpska Day. Next month’s prospects: Dodik presented the referendum outcome as a triumph, but many SNSD officials saw Albania is expecting to hear from the Europe- it as a near-defeat, as they had expected a an Commission on November 9 on whether it greater turnout. Some analysts alleged that will recommend to the Council of the European the turnout had actually been below 50 per Union the opening of the accession talks with cent. These claims could not be verified, since Albania. The country expects a positive recom- there was no independent monitoring. BiH’s mendation after its Parliament adopted the con- state prosecution has launched an official stitutional changes related to judicial reform in investigation into the referendum and has July, which are viewed as prerequisite for the already questioned some RS officials who opening of the accession talks. participated in its organisation, but it is un- clear whether or what kind of effect this in- vestigation will have since Dodik has already Bosnia and Herzegovina announced he would not come to Sarajevo for eventual questioning. The political agenda in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in recent months has been dominated by • Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 2016 local elec- the holding of a referendum in Republika Srp- tions took place on October 2 amid height- ska (RS) on September 25; and of local elections ened tensions caused by the referendum in throughout the country a week later on Octo- Republika Srpska and the use of inflamma- ber 2. Both the referendum, which was held in tory language during the election campaign defiance of the state Constitutional Court and from various sides. Many analysts considered the Office of the High Representative, and the the October 2 polls more important than pre- local elections contributed to an increase in ten- vious local elections, since they represented sions both in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the a crucial test of political support before the wider region. 2018 general elections. Moreover, the elec- tions were marred by controversial incidents and allegations of fraud. The worst incident Key developments took place in the southeastern town of Sto- lac, where arguments degenerated into a • The Republika Srpska authorities held a ref- fistfight between a Bosniak candidate for erendum on September 25 on continuing mayor and a Croat election official. After the celebration of Republika Srpska Day on masked men entered polling stations to re- January 9 in spite the rulings of the Consti- move election material, voting was suspend- tutional Court and the disapproval of the ed throughout the town and special police Office of the High Representative (OHR). RS deployed. Bosnia’s Central Election Com- President and leader of the Alliance of Inde- mission is still deciding what steps it should 4 Political Trends & Dynamics in Southeast Europe take.