‘LAC, LOC and Inside’

Sameer Patil Associate Fellow in National Security, Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism Studies About Gateway House

 Mumbai-based foreign policy think tank

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 Issue areas:  Geopolitics  Geo-economics  Foreign policy www.gatewayhouse.in  National security  Energy & environment Region focus  BRICS studies Asia Africa  Democracy & nation South Asia Europe building East Asia West Asia  S&T and innovation Central Asia Americas Outline of presentation

 -China tensions on the in

 Recent India-Pakistan skirmishes on the

 Internal security situation in J&K

 What to expect in 2014? India-China tensions on the LAC

 Increase in frequency of Chinese incursions

 China’s attempt to create new facts on ground

 Depsang intrusion Source: India Defence Review

Map of Kashmir and areas showing LAC and LOC Chinese intrusions in Chumar

 PLA’s focus on Chumar sector

 India developing border infrastructure

 China’s proposal for Border Defence Cooperation Agreement

Chumar

Source: India Defence Review

Depsang and Chumar Looking at China’s grand strategy

© Getty Images  China asserting territorial claims in the region

 China takes a long view of history

 Protracted border China’s new leadership at the NPC meeting in Beijing dispute negotiations between India and China India-Pakistan skirmishes on LOC

 Killing of Indian soldiers in Poonch

 Discovery of cross- border tunnel in Samba

 Increase in ceasefire violations

Year Ceasefire violations

Source: Mapsofworld.com 2010 44

India-Pakistan LoC 2011 51 2012 93 2013 (till July ) 33 Source: Lok Sabha Cross-border infiltration

 Rise in militant infiltration

 Most infiltration activities in north Kashmir

 Terrorist © NYT infrastructure in Indian troops patrol LoC in north Kashmir Pakistan and POK Year Attempts Killed Returned Successful 2010 489 112 281 95 remains intact 2011 247 35 159 52 2012 264 13 130 121 Source: Lok Sabha Situation in J&K

 Flux situation after Afzal Guru’s execution

 Agitational politics of separatists and Pakistan’s support

 Abject failures on © Showkat Shafi governance front A stonepelter and security forces in Srinagar Security situation in J&K

 Targeting of the security forces and Panchayat members

 Local recruitment in terrorist ranks

 Situation in Jammu © Hindu

Security forces take position during an encounter in Sopore What to expect in 2014?

© Samaa TV  Warnings of increase in violence from Pakistani militant leaders

 Spillover of unstable situation in Afghanistan on J&K

A Difa e Pakistan rally in Lahore  India-Pakistan relations Thank you! www.gatewayhouse.in