‘LAC, LOC and Inside’
Sameer Patil Associate Fellow in National Security, Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism Studies About Gateway House
Mumbai-based foreign policy think tank
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Issue areas: Geopolitics Geo-economics Foreign policy www.gatewayhouse.in National security Energy & environment Region focus BRICS studies Asia Africa Democracy & nation South Asia Europe building East Asia West Asia S&T and innovation Central Asia Americas Outline of presentation
India-China tensions on the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh
Recent India-Pakistan skirmishes on the Line of Control
Internal security situation in J&K
What to expect in 2014? India-China tensions on the LAC
Increase in frequency of Chinese incursions
China’s attempt to create new facts on ground
Depsang intrusion Source: India Defence Review
Map of Kashmir and areas showing LAC and LOC Chinese intrusions in Chumar
PLA’s focus on Chumar sector
India developing border infrastructure
China’s proposal for Border Defence Cooperation Agreement
Chumar
Source: India Defence Review
Depsang and Chumar Looking at China’s grand strategy
© Getty Images China asserting territorial claims in the region
China takes a long view of history
Protracted border China’s new leadership at the NPC meeting in Beijing dispute negotiations between India and China India-Pakistan skirmishes on LOC
Killing of Indian soldiers in Poonch
Discovery of cross- border tunnel in Samba
Increase in ceasefire violations
Year Ceasefire violations
Source: Mapsofworld.com 2010 44
India-Pakistan LoC 2011 51 2012 93 2013 (till July ) 33 Source: Lok Sabha Cross-border infiltration
Rise in militant infiltration
Most infiltration activities in north Kashmir
Terrorist © NYT infrastructure in Indian troops patrol LoC in north Kashmir Pakistan and POK Year Attempts Killed Returned Successful 2010 489 112 281 95 remains intact 2011 247 35 159 52 2012 264 13 130 121 Source: Lok Sabha Situation in J&K
Flux situation after Afzal Guru’s execution
Agitational politics of separatists and Pakistan’s support
Abject failures on © Showkat Shafi governance front A stonepelter and security forces in Srinagar Security situation in J&K
Targeting of the security forces and Panchayat members
Local recruitment in terrorist ranks
Situation in Jammu © Hindu
Security forces take position during an encounter in Sopore What to expect in 2014?
© Samaa TV Warnings of increase in violence from Pakistani militant leaders
Spillover of unstable situation in Afghanistan on J&K
A Difa e Pakistan rally in Lahore India-Pakistan relations Thank you! www.gatewayhouse.in