‘LAC, LOC and Inside’ Sameer Patil Associate Fellow in National Security, Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism Studies About Gateway House Mumbai-based foreign policy think tank Membership-based, independent, non-partisan and not-for-profit Issue areas: Geopolitics Geo-economics Foreign policy www.gatewayhouse.in National security Energy & environment Region focus BRICS studies Asia Africa Democracy & nation South Asia Europe building East Asia West Asia S&T and innovation Central Asia Americas Outline of presentation India-China tensions on the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh Recent India-Pakistan skirmishes on the Line of Control Internal security situation in J&K What to expect in 2014? India-China tensions on the LAC Increase in frequency of Chinese incursions China’s attempt to create new facts on ground Depsang intrusion Source: India Defence Review Map of Kashmir and areas showing LAC and LOC Chinese intrusions in Chumar PLA’s focus on Chumar sector India developing border infrastructure China’s proposal for Border Defence Cooperation Agreement Chumar Source: India Defence Review Depsang and Chumar Looking at China’s grand strategy © Getty Images China asserting territorial claims in the region China takes a long view of history Protracted border China’s new leadership at the NPC meeting in Beijing dispute negotiations between India and China India-Pakistan skirmishes on LOC Killing of Indian soldiers in Poonch Discovery of cross- border tunnel in Samba Increase in ceasefire violations Year Ceasefire violations Source: Mapsofworld.com 2010 44 India-Pakistan LoC 2011 51 2012 93 2013 (till July ) 33 Source: Lok Sabha Cross-border infiltration Rise in militant infiltration Most infiltration activities in north Kashmir Terrorist © NYT infrastructure in Indian troops patrol LoC in north Kashmir Pakistan and POK Year Attempts Killed Returned Successful 2010 489 112 281 95 remains intact 2011 247 35 159 52 2012 264 13 130 121 Source: Lok Sabha Situation in J&K Flux situation after Afzal Guru’s execution Agitational politics of separatists and Pakistan’s support Abject failures on © Showkat Shafi governance front A stonepelter and security forces in Srinagar Security situation in J&K Targeting of the security forces and Panchayat members Local recruitment in terrorist ranks Situation in Jammu © Hindu Security forces take position during an encounter in Sopore What to expect in 2014? © Samaa TV Warnings of increase in violence from Pakistani militant leaders Spillover of unstable situation in Afghanistan on J&K A Difa e Pakistan rally in Lahore India-Pakistan relations Thank you! www.gatewayhouse.in.