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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook July to December 2009

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook July to December 2009 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook July to December 2009 Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions, July Food security across the country has improved with the 2009 arrival of the harvest, and most households now have nearly adequate access to food and are generally food secure. But in central and southern zones, where shocks and limited livelihood options affect households, moderate levels of food insecurity are found. An estimated 247,000 persons will require assistance until April 2010. An annual food security assessment by the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) and its partners is planned for August, and will develop updated scenarios as new information becomes available. From July to September 2009, in Chigubo, Chicualacuala, Mabalane and much of Chibuto districts in Gaza Province, Mágoe, Cahora Bassa, Changara and Mutarara in southern Tete Province, Chemba, Chibabava and Machanga in Sofala Province, Magude and Matutuine in Maputo Province and Chinde in Zambezia Province, poor and very poor households are expected to remain moderately food insecure. From October to December 2009, moderate food insecurity will likely extend to very poor and poor households in additional districts in the interior of Inhambane Province (Govuro, Mabote, Funhalouro and Panda), Sofala Province (Maríngue and Cheringoma), Zambezia Province (Mopeia and Morrumbala) and southeastern districts of Nampula Province For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity (Moma, Angoche, Mongicual and Mossuril). Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Source: FEWS NET Seasonal calendar and critical events FEWS NET MOZAMBIQUE FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in Av. FPLM, 2698, Maputo 1717 H St NW this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Tel: 258 21 460588; Washington DC 20006 Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Mobile: 258 82 3050574 [email protected] Fax: 258 21 462657 [email protected] www.fews.net/Mozambique MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook July to December 2009 Source: FEWS NET Current food security conditions Food security across the country has improved with this season’s harvest, and most households now have nearly adequate access to food and are generally food secure. Areas in central and southern Mozambique, where weather shocks (droughts and inundations along the major river basins) and pests affected crop production, high food prices inhibit food access through markets, and households have limited livelihood options, moderate levels of food insecurity are found. As early as August, the very poor and poor households will not be able to sustain themselves without external assistance in the semi‐ arid districts of southern Tete province and northwest Gaza province, and the semi‐arid district of Sofala province. Thus, the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) recommends food aid for an estimated 175,000 persons in the critical districts in the provinces of Tete, Gaza and Sofala, from July 2009 until April 2010. An additional 72,000 persons among poor households in Maputo and Inhambane provinces will find their food stocks and ability to cope exhausted; they will need external assistance from October until the next major harvest in April 2010. Later in the year, food insecurity could also affect some districts of Nampula and Zambezia provinces, where poor households will likely need assistance, in the form of social transfers, given the better functionality of the markets. A food security assessment by the SETSAN and its partners is planned for August, and updated scenarios will be developed as new information becomes available. According to the Department of Crops and Early Warning of the Ministry of Agriculture, 2008/09 overall production prospects are favorable and the preliminary estimates indicate around 1,932,000 metric tons of cereals for the first season. This is about a 14 percent increase in the cereal production from the previous season, of which there is an increase of 15 percent on maize production, and a 6.7 and 8.5 percent increase on pulses and cassava, respectively. The production results were less favorable in northern Maputo province, southern Gaza province, southern Sofala province, and southern Tete province, resulting from a combination of poorly distributed rainfall and pest infestations, and cereal deficits that are expected in those areas. Elsewhere, the late rains in May provided much‐needed moisture for second‐season farming where inputs were readily available. According to field information, this allowed for a reasonable second season and the rains were also good for pasture and water availability. At the national level, the average monthly maize prices until May 2009 were decreasing, thanks to the newly harvested crops of the 2008/09 agriculture season. The weekly reports from the Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA) indicate that weekly maize prices at the consumer level have been generally stable, with small fluctuations in the central zone, where slight increases were observed and local demand has increased due to a combination of factors, including: poor maize production during the 2007/08 production season, local purchases of large quantities of maize by international institutions, and increased demand for maize from emergent local industries. At the consumer level the maize price despite being generally stable remains at levels higher than last year and the five‐year average. Following a normal trend, food prices are expected to start rising within the next month (see Annex). The SETSAN’s Vulnerability Table 1. Districts included in this year’s Annual Vulnerability Assessment, by province Assessment Group (GAV), a MAPUTO Manhiça, Marracuene, Moamba and Magude multisectoral and multidisciplinary GAZA Chigubo, Mabalane; Chicualacuala; Chibuto, Massingir team, will lead the annual round of INHAMBANE Funhalouro; Mabote; Massinga; Panda Vilankulos and Govuro vulnerability assessment in the whole SOFALA Chemba; Machanga, Cheringoma, Marínguè and Chibabava, country, beginning in early August. MANICA Machaze, Macossa, The results of the assessment will also TETE Mutarrara; Cabora Bassa; Magoé; Changara; inform decision makers on priorities ZAMBEZIA Mocuba, Maganja da Costa, Ile, Morrumbala, Mopeia and Chinde and interventions and to update food NAMPULA Mogovolas, Mogincual, Moma, and Angoche security scenarios previously NIASSA Muembe; Mavago, Lago and Sanga C. DELGADO No districts selected developed as new information will be available. Results are expected at the end of September. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook July to December 2009 Most‐likely food security scenario, July‐December Figure 2. Most-likely food security scenario, July- 2009 September 2009 The majority of households throughout the country will be generally food secure in the next three to six months. Food availability and access is not expected to be a major problem during this time. From July to September 2009, in Chigubo, Chicualacuala, Mabalane and much of Chibuto districts in Gaza Province, district of Panda in Inhambane Province, Mágoe, Cahora Bassa, Changara and Mutarara in southern Tete Province, Chemba, Chibabava and Machanga in Sofala Province, Magude and Matutuine in Maputo Province and Chinde in Zambezia Province (see Figure 2), poor and very poor households are expected to remain moderately food insecure following a below‐average main harvest that resulted from poor rainfall of 2008/09 agriculture season, perpetuating the effects of the 2007/08 drought, and poor prospects of second season. Currently, most households from these areas are relying mostly on the market to meet their food needs, but food prices, especially for maize, are still much higher than the average and the reference year (2005/06). Also, the seasonality trend shows that prices are expected to keep increasing until January/February, when green food is expected to become available. The decline of food prices will occur with the main harvest in March/April 2010. The current high prices of staple food commodities will limit food access for poor households Figure 3. Most-likely food security scenario, October- with limited and already exhausted food stocks. The impact will December 2009 be most severe among labor‐ and purchase‐dependent very poor and poor households. Some mitigation factors will include second‐season production for those who have access to lowlands with enough moisture or irrigation facilities and, especially in the south, remittances from South Africa and major cities. However, the peak of remittances from South Africa occurs in December and is essentially limited to those who have relatives with formal jobs in that country. From October to December 2009, moderate food insecurity will likely extend to very poor and poor households in additional districts in the interior of Inhambane Province (Govuro, Mabote, Funhalouro and Panda), Sofala Province (Maríngue and Cheringoma), Zambezia Province (Mopeia and Morrumbala) and southeastern districts of Nampula Province (Moma, Angoche, Mongicual and Mossuril) beside those indicated for the July‐ September period. The early cessation of rains in January, particularly in semi‐arid southern Tete Province and the reduced amount of rains in Maputo, Gaza, and Sofala Provinces could limit second‐season production, since much of it relies on residual moisture from the main rainy season from October
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