Lael Brainard: Modernizing and Strengthening CRA Regulations
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Econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) Periodical Part NBER Reporter Online, Volume 2011 NBER Reporter Online Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) (2011) : NBER Reporter Online, Volume 2011, NBER Reporter Online, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61994 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), -
Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization
For release on delivery 12:30 p.m. EDT July 11, 2017 Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization Remarks by Lael Brainard Member Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at “Normalizing Central Banks’ Balance Sheets: What Is the New Normal?” a conference sponsored by Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, New York July 11, 2017 When the central banks in many advanced economies embarked on unconventional monetary policy, it raised concerns that there might be differences in the cross-border transmission of unconventional relative to conventional monetary policy.1 These concerns were sufficient to warrant a special Group of Seven (G-7) statement in 2013 establishing ground rules to address possible exchange rate effects of the changing composition of monetary policy.2 Today the world confronts similar questions in reverse. In the United States, in my assessment, normalization of the federal funds rate is now well under way, and the Federal Reserve is advancing plans to allow the balance sheet to run off at a gradual and predictable pace. And for the first time in many years, the global economy is experiencing synchronous growth, and authorities in the euro area and the United Kingdom are beginning to discuss the time when the need for monetary accommodation will diminish. Unlike in previous tightening cycles, many central banks currently have two tools for removing accommodation. They can therefore pursue alternative normalization strategies--first seeking to guide policy rates higher before initiating balance sheet runoff, as in the United States, or instead starting to shrink the balance sheet before initiating a 1 I am grateful to John Ammer, Bastian von Beschwitz, Christopher Erceg, Matteo Iacoviello, and John Roberts for their assistance in preparing this text. -
Jelena Mcwilliams-FDIC
www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Voice of the American Sovereign (VOAS) The lawless Municipal Government operated by the "US CONGRESS" Washington, D.C., The smoking gun; do you get it? John Murtha – Impostor committed Treason – Time to sue his estate… Trust through Transparency - Jelena McWilliams - FDIC Chair Theft through Deception - Arnie Rosner - American sovereign, a Californian — and not a US Citizen via the fraudulent 14th Amendment. Sovereignty! TRUMP – THE AMERICAN SOVEREIGNS RULE AMERICA! All rights reserved - Without recourse - 1 of 120 - [email protected] - 714-964-4056 www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC 1.1. The FDIC responds - the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. From: FDIC NoReply <[email protected]> Subject: FDIC Reply - 01003075 Date: April 29, 2019 at 6:36:46 AM PDT To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]> Reply-To: [email protected] April 29, 2019 Ref. No.: 01003075 Re: MUFG Union Bank, National Association, San Francisco, CA Dear Arnold Beryl Rosner: Thank you for your correspondence, which was received by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC's mission is to ensure the stability of and public confidence in the nation's financial system. To achieve this goal, the FDIC has insured deposits and promoted safe and sound banking practices since 1933. We are responsible for supervising state- chartered, FDIC-insured institutions that are not members of the Federal Reserve System. Based on our review of your correspondence, the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. -
Is Inflation Really Transitory?
Is Inflation Really Transitory? By Eric Grover National Review August 17, 2021 Financial-market indicators point to a persistent uptick in inflation. DESPITE a few recent hints of unease, the Fed still maintains that the current surge in inflation is “transitory.” That seems optimistic: The central bank has been stoking inflation and is stubbornly blind to the danger of getting more than it bargained for, of letting loose what Nobel Prize– winning economist Friedrich Hayek described as the “tiger.” Fed chairman Paul Volcker caged inflation after it’d crested at 13.5 percent in 1980. Since then, however, the Fed, politicians, consumers, and producers have become complacent about the risk that it might escape again. The current cocktail of money-printing, massive deficit spending, pandemic- related supply-chain disruptions, and pent-up demand coming out of COVID-19 hibernation means inflation ahead — and not just for the short term. The outlook is only made worse by the hit to the supply side that will come from increased regulation and taxes, not to speak of the boost to energy costs that will flow from the administration’s hostility to fossil fuels. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion in August 2008 to a whopping $8.2 trillion in mid July 2021. However, by paying banks interest to park excess reserves held at the Fed, the central bank has managed to keep new dollars from entering the economy in the form of credit, thereby holding down inflation. Now, printed money is showing up in consumption and price data, and the longer the “transitory” surge endures, the more difficult it will be to contain. -
The Economics of Climate Change: a First Fed Conference Galina B
FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-31 | December 16, 2019 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference Galina B. Hale, Òscar Jordà, and Glenn D. Rudebusch To better understand the implications of climate change for the financial sector and the broader economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently hosted a conference on the economics of climate change to gather and debate the latest analyses from universities and policy institutions, nationally and abroad. It was the first Fed-sponsored conference devoted to investigating the economic and financial consequences and risks arising from climate change and potential policy responses. The scientific community around the world has reached a broad consensus on the ongoing climate change caused by human activities. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), stated, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and the sea level has risen” (p. 40). Scientists also attribute more frequent and extreme storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves to these adverse developments (U.S. Global Change Research Program 2018, hereafter USGCRP). This climate change will have sweeping effects on our economy and financial system (Network for Greening the Financial System 2018, hereafter NGFS; USGCRP 2018). Climate-related shifts in the physical environment can slow economic growth, increase volatility, and depreciate the value of business and household assets and property. Avoiding further climate change will involve a substantial transformation of the economy. -
Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Federal Reserve Nominees 5.15.2018
Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Federal Reserve Nominees 5.15.2018 On May 15th, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to consider the following nominations: The Honorable Richard Clarida, of Connecticut, to be a Member and Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Ms. Michelle Bowman, of Kansas, to be a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Key Takeaways Both nominees expressed support for the tailoring of financial regulation to the size and complexity of the institution, but highlighted the need to continue to ensure safety and soundness in the financial system. Both nominees expressed support for the continued normalization of the Fed’s balance sheet. Democratic Members asked nominees about recent Federal Reserve proposals that would adjust capital standards. The following themes consistently emerged throughout the hearing: Tailoring of regulations o Chairman Crapo (R-ID) asked the nominees their thoughts on tailoring regulations to the size and complexity of individual institutions. Clarida said that tailoring and efficiency of regulations are important goals while at the same time continuing to ensure the safety and soundness of the financial system. Bowman highlighted the need to apply the appropriate amount of regulation depending on size and complexity of the institution. o Senator Tillis (R-NC) asked witnesses about whether S.2155 was an appropriate way to tailor regulations. Bowman discussed the importance of tailoring regulations but did not specifically discuss 2155. Fed balance sheet / Quantitative Easing o Chairman Crapo (R-ID) asked the nominees about normalization of the Fed balance sheet. Clarida said that Fed Chairman Powell’s recent proposal seems to make sense, but he has not studied the numbers in detail yet. -
Investment Insights
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE Investment Insights AUGUST 2017 Matthew Diczok A Focus on the Fed Head of Fixed Income Strategy An Overview of the Federal Reserve System and a Look at Potential Personnel Changes SUMMARY After years of accommodative policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on its path to policy normalization. The Fed forecasts another rate hike in late 2017, and three hikes in each of the next two years. The Fed also plans to taper reinvestments of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, gradually reducing its balance sheet. The market thinks differently. Emboldened by inflation persistently below target, it expects the Fed to move significantly more slowly, with only one to three rate hikes between now and early 2019. One way or another, this discrepancy will be reconciled, with important implications for asset prices and yields. Against this backdrop, changes in personnel at the Fed are very important, and have been underappreciated by markets. The Fed has three open board seats, and the Chair and Vice Chair are both up for reappointment in 2018. If the administration appoints a Fed Chair and Vice Chair who are not currently governors, then there will be five new, permanent voting members who determine rate moves—almost half of the 12-member committee. This would be unprecedented in the modern era. Similar to its potential influence on the Supreme Court, this administration has the ability to set the tone of monetary policy for many years into the future. Most rumored candidates share philosophical leanings at odds with the current board; they are generally hawkish relative to current policy, favor rules-based decision-making over discretionary, and are unconvinced that successive rounds of quantitative easing were beneficial. -
NY Fed President ❖ Lael Brainard – Governor ❖ Randall Quarles – Vice Chair for Supervision ❖ Michelle Bowman-Governor
1 2 Interest Rates – from 3000 BC Source: Business Insider 3 Yield Curve 101 ❖ Fed Funds – 2.40% (2.25%-2.50%) ❖ +75 bps ❖ =3.15% 2-year note yield (2.52%) ❖ +100 bps ❖ =4.15% 10-year note yield (2.66%) ❖ +50 bps ❖ =4.40% 30-year bond yield (3.00%) ❖ Yield Curve is Flat 4 Treasury Yield Curve-2018-2019 Source: Bloomberg 5 Treasury Yield Curve 2018-2019 Source: Bloomberg 6 U.S. vs. German Yield Curves Source: Bloomberg 7 Source: Walt Handelsman - Newsday 8 Economic Growth – 2004-2018 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 9 Economic Growth – 1947-2018 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 10 11 Key to Economy – Innovative New Jobs 12 Beneficiaries of Economic Innovation 13 Measures of Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics •U-3: Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate). •U-6: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. 14 U.S. Unemployment Rate U-3 Source: BLS and Bloomberg 15 U.S. Unemployment Rate U-6 Source: BLS and Bloomberg 16 U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (2009-Present) Source: BLS and Bloomberg 17 U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (1939-Present) Source: BLS and Bloomberg 18 Weekly Initial Jobless Claims(2009-Present) Source: DOL and Bloomberg 19 Weekly Initial Jobless Claims(1967-Present) Source: DOL and Bloomberg 20 21 German Inflation – 1918-1923 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 22 Wages vs Inflation (PCE Core YoY) – 2007-2019 Source: BEA, BLS & Bloomberg -
US Dec FOMC Minutes: on Pause for “A Time”
Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro Note US Dec FOMC Minutes: On Pause For “A Time” Monday, 06 January 2020 . In the latest minutes, markets did not get much new insights on what would change the outlook for the Fed Reserve policy rate trajectory. FOMC policy makers regarded current rate stance as likely to remain appropriate for ”a time”, helping to reinforce expectations for a Fed policy cycle pause after three sequential 25bps rate cuts in July, September and October but provided little else in Alvin Liew Senior Economist terms of new information. [email protected] . Similar to market expectations, we too subscribe to the view that the Fed Reserve will stay on Heng Koon How pause in its upcoming 28/29 January 2020 FOMC. But in contrast to the view of a more prolonged Head of Markets Strategy [email protected] Fed pause, we still expect the Fed to implement the next 25bps rate cut in 1Q 2020 which will be at the March FOMC, and thereafter to stay on pause again for the rest of 2020. The factors determining our Fed policy outlook is still the international trade developments and now, the additional factor of US-Iran developments. Conversely, if the trade negotiation progresses smoothly into 2020 and the US-Iran tensions does not boil over into a full-fledged military confrontation, then the “insurance” cut will be unnecessary. The view remains for the Fed Reserve to keep policy rates low or even lower in 2020. 10/11 Dec 2019 FOMC Minutes: Keeping Policy Steady For “A Time” The trouble brewing in the Middle East largely overshadowed the special Friday release of the 10/11 December 2019 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (4 Jan, Saturday 3am SGT) and markets did not get much new insights on what would change the outlook for the Fed from details of the minutes. -
Investing Amidst a New Fed Policy Regime
SPOTLIGHT | SEPTEMBER 2020 INVESTING AMIDST A NEW FED POLICY REGIME Key points ■ September saw the end of the US Federal Reserve’s inflation ■ The negative inflation adjusted interest rate regime that will containment policy regime in place since the 1970s. likely be targeted should also drive the next leg of the gold bull Coordinated fiscal and monetary policy actions taken in the market that began in 2018 when the US Federal Reserve ended 1940s provide a potential road map to understand what lies its brief rate hiking cycle. ahead for investors, with negative inflation adjusted interest ■ With stimulus targeted towards transformation stories among rates and substantial and growing future deficits. economies in Europe, China and potentially the US, this ■ Until such synchronisation occurs formally, likely post-US should provide an opportunity for investors to continue to election, the US may resemble the Europe of the past decade align portfolios with policymakers under this new regime. with the economy relying on monetary life support, benefitting ■ Given the leverage in the global economy and the early signs credit investors in the near term. of political reluctance in both the US and Europe to sustain ■ Once policy coordination is deployed, a reflationary backdrop the fiscal largesse likely needed to generate the growth and should provide a catalyst for the next stage of the US dollar inflation required, risk management will be key as the global bear market that has begun in 2020. This should drive economy transitions to the post-pandemic world ahead. further strength in the EUR/USD while the Australian dollar’s fundamentals leave it well positioned. -
Federal Reserve Appointments and the Politics of Senate Confirmation
Federal Reserve appointments and the politics of Senate confirmation Caitlin Ainsley University of Washington [email protected] Abstract This paper examines the politicization of Federal Reserve (Fed) appointments. In contrast to the extant appointment literature's almost exclusive focus on ideological proximity as a predictor of Fed nominations and confirmations, I theorize that senators will be more likely to vote against confirmation when their constituents have little con- fidence in the Fed because it allows them to more credibly defer blame on the Fed for economic downturns. Drawing on novel estimates of state-level confidence in the Fed as well as new common space estimates of senators' and central bankers' monetary policy preferences, I demonstrate that when constituents do not have confidence in the Fed, senators are less likely to vote in favor of confirmation regardless of their ideological proximity to the nominee. The results have important implications for the ability to fill Fed vacancies and, in turn, the balance of power between the Fed and regional bank Presidents in the monetary policymaking process. Keywords: Federal Reserve, Senate Confirmation, Public Opinion, Central Bank Preferences JEL Codes: P16, E58, D72 1 Introduction This article investigates the politics of Senate confirmations for Federal Reserve (Fed) nomi- nations. Scholars of central banking have long recognized the importance of the appointment process for the politics of monetary policymaking. For many scholars, that is considered a primary channel through which partisan politics affects decision-making at the central bank (Adolph, 2013; Chappell, Havrilesky and McGregor, 1993; Chappell, McGregor and Ver- milyea, 2004). Given that conventional wisdom, it is unsurprising that presidential power to nominate individuals to the Fed's Board of Governors and its associated leadership po- sitions has received considerable attention in the extant literature. -
The Fed's New Framework
FEDERAL RESERVE BY TIM SABLIK The Fed’s New Framework With a revised strategy, the Fed responds to challenges facing central banks today ost people know that the Fed makes periodic changes to mone- M tary policy by changing interest rates. What is perhaps less well known is that since 2012 the Fed’s approach to monetary policy has been guided by a public strategy document that defines the Fed’s longer-run goals. The Fed has made minor updates to this framework over the years, but in August 2020, it unveiled a major revision of its policy strategy. The original 2012 statement on longer-run goals outlined how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s policymaking body, would seek to achieve its dual mandate from Congress of maintaining maxi- mum employment and stable prices. The FOMC announced as its goal an inflation rate of 2 percent, measured by the personal consumption expen- Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks at a Fed Listens event in Chicago on June 4, 2019. ditures (PCE) price index. It declined to set a specific target for maximum the Fed’s policy framework stretches would eliminate any potential confu- employment, noting that the maxi- back further than that, reflect- sion in the markets, ensuring smoother mum level of employment the economy ing changes in the challenges facing implementation of policy changes. can sustain changes over time and is central banks over the decades. Additionally, research suggested that largely driven by nonmonetary factors. announcing a long-term goal for infla- The Fed’s new framework sets a goal CHOOSING A TARGET tion would help anchor the public’s for inflation that averages 2 percent expectations for inflation, making it over time, meaning that the FOMC When Congress established the Fed’s easier to maintain stable prices over will now allow periods of higher infla- dual mandate in 1977, the FOMC was the long run.