The Federal Reserve and the Crisis of 2020
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Econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) Periodical Part NBER Reporter Online, Volume 2011 NBER Reporter Online Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) (2011) : NBER Reporter Online, Volume 2011, NBER Reporter Online, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61994 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), -
The Development of Macroeconomics and the Revolution in Finance
1 The Development of Macroeconomics and the Revolution in Finance Perry Mehrling August 26, 2005 Every graduate student learns a story about where modern macroeconomics came from, if only as context for the reading list he is supposed to master as part of his PhD coursework. Usually the story is about disciplinary progress, the slow building of the modern edifice one paper at a time by dedicated scientists not much older than the student himself. It is a story about the internal development of the field, a story intended to help the student make sense of the current disciplinary landscape and to prepare him for a life of writing and receiving referee reports. Exemplary stories of this type include Blanchard (2000) and Woodford (1999). So, for example, a typical story of the development of macroeconomics revolves around a series of academic papers: in the 1960s Muth, Phelps, and Friedman planted the seed from which Robert Lucas and others developed new classical macroeconomics in the 1970s, from which Ed Prescott and others developed real business cycle theory in the 1980s, from which Michael Woodford and others in the 1990s produced the modern new neoclassical synthesis.1 As a pedagogical device, this kind of story has its use, but as history of ideas it leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, as I shall argue, neoKeynesian macroeconomics circa 1965 was destabilized not by the various internal theoretical problems that standard pedagogy emphasizes, but rather by fundamental changes in the institutional structure of the world 1 Muth (1961), Phelps (1968), Friedman (1968); Lucas (1975, 1976, 1977); Kydland and Prescott (1982), Long and Plosser (1983); Woodford (2003). -
Fundamentals of Money and Banking.Pptx
Fundamentals of Money and Banking Alfredo Schclarek Curutchet National University of Córdoba, Argentina National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), Argentina www.cbaeconomia.com The 24th NSE International Development Forum INSE, PKU August 9, 2018 1 Plan for presentation 1. Motivation 2. Visions of money 3. Money view 1. Hierarchy of monetary system 2. Fluctuation of monetary system 3. Liquidity and (in)stability of monetary system 4. Credit, money and investment 2 Motivation Recent international financial crisis (2007/2009) shows: Understand financial and banking system for macroeconomic analysis Mainstream theories (Neoclassical and NewKeynesian) not useful for: understanding, predicting and giving policy advise Not sufficient to incorporate credit frictions and banking sector in standard DSGE models Main problem: underlying theory of money 3 Visions of money Metalist: Jevons, Menger, von Mises, Kiyotaki, Wright, neo- classical and neo-keynesian Cartalist: Knapp, Mireaux, Goodhart, and post-Keynesian Money view: Perry Mehrling (Columbia University and Institute for New Economic Thinking) 4 Metalist Origin: Private sector (minimize transactions costs involved in barter and advantageous characteristics of the precious metals as a medium of exchange e.g., durability, divisibility, portability, etc.) Value of money: backing (gold, metals) Loss in value: reduction of gold and metals, relative to quantity money Quantity of money: exogenous, given by availability of gold and dollars Role of banks: only intermediaries -
Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization
For release on delivery 12:30 p.m. EDT July 11, 2017 Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization Remarks by Lael Brainard Member Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at “Normalizing Central Banks’ Balance Sheets: What Is the New Normal?” a conference sponsored by Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, New York July 11, 2017 When the central banks in many advanced economies embarked on unconventional monetary policy, it raised concerns that there might be differences in the cross-border transmission of unconventional relative to conventional monetary policy.1 These concerns were sufficient to warrant a special Group of Seven (G-7) statement in 2013 establishing ground rules to address possible exchange rate effects of the changing composition of monetary policy.2 Today the world confronts similar questions in reverse. In the United States, in my assessment, normalization of the federal funds rate is now well under way, and the Federal Reserve is advancing plans to allow the balance sheet to run off at a gradual and predictable pace. And for the first time in many years, the global economy is experiencing synchronous growth, and authorities in the euro area and the United Kingdom are beginning to discuss the time when the need for monetary accommodation will diminish. Unlike in previous tightening cycles, many central banks currently have two tools for removing accommodation. They can therefore pursue alternative normalization strategies--first seeking to guide policy rates higher before initiating balance sheet runoff, as in the United States, or instead starting to shrink the balance sheet before initiating a 1 I am grateful to John Ammer, Bastian von Beschwitz, Christopher Erceg, Matteo Iacoviello, and John Roberts for their assistance in preparing this text. -
Jelena Mcwilliams-FDIC
www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Voice of the American Sovereign (VOAS) The lawless Municipal Government operated by the "US CONGRESS" Washington, D.C., The smoking gun; do you get it? John Murtha – Impostor committed Treason – Time to sue his estate… Trust through Transparency - Jelena McWilliams - FDIC Chair Theft through Deception - Arnie Rosner - American sovereign, a Californian — and not a US Citizen via the fraudulent 14th Amendment. Sovereignty! TRUMP – THE AMERICAN SOVEREIGNS RULE AMERICA! All rights reserved - Without recourse - 1 of 120 - [email protected] - 714-964-4056 www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC 1.1. The FDIC responds - the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. From: FDIC NoReply <[email protected]> Subject: FDIC Reply - 01003075 Date: April 29, 2019 at 6:36:46 AM PDT To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]> Reply-To: [email protected] April 29, 2019 Ref. No.: 01003075 Re: MUFG Union Bank, National Association, San Francisco, CA Dear Arnold Beryl Rosner: Thank you for your correspondence, which was received by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC's mission is to ensure the stability of and public confidence in the nation's financial system. To achieve this goal, the FDIC has insured deposits and promoted safe and sound banking practices since 1933. We are responsible for supervising state- chartered, FDIC-insured institutions that are not members of the Federal Reserve System. Based on our review of your correspondence, the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. -
Is Inflation Really Transitory?
Is Inflation Really Transitory? By Eric Grover National Review August 17, 2021 Financial-market indicators point to a persistent uptick in inflation. DESPITE a few recent hints of unease, the Fed still maintains that the current surge in inflation is “transitory.” That seems optimistic: The central bank has been stoking inflation and is stubbornly blind to the danger of getting more than it bargained for, of letting loose what Nobel Prize– winning economist Friedrich Hayek described as the “tiger.” Fed chairman Paul Volcker caged inflation after it’d crested at 13.5 percent in 1980. Since then, however, the Fed, politicians, consumers, and producers have become complacent about the risk that it might escape again. The current cocktail of money-printing, massive deficit spending, pandemic- related supply-chain disruptions, and pent-up demand coming out of COVID-19 hibernation means inflation ahead — and not just for the short term. The outlook is only made worse by the hit to the supply side that will come from increased regulation and taxes, not to speak of the boost to energy costs that will flow from the administration’s hostility to fossil fuels. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion in August 2008 to a whopping $8.2 trillion in mid July 2021. However, by paying banks interest to park excess reserves held at the Fed, the central bank has managed to keep new dollars from entering the economy in the form of credit, thereby holding down inflation. Now, printed money is showing up in consumption and price data, and the longer the “transitory” surge endures, the more difficult it will be to contain. -
The Economics of Climate Change: a First Fed Conference Galina B
FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-31 | December 16, 2019 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference Galina B. Hale, Òscar Jordà, and Glenn D. Rudebusch To better understand the implications of climate change for the financial sector and the broader economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently hosted a conference on the economics of climate change to gather and debate the latest analyses from universities and policy institutions, nationally and abroad. It was the first Fed-sponsored conference devoted to investigating the economic and financial consequences and risks arising from climate change and potential policy responses. The scientific community around the world has reached a broad consensus on the ongoing climate change caused by human activities. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), stated, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and the sea level has risen” (p. 40). Scientists also attribute more frequent and extreme storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves to these adverse developments (U.S. Global Change Research Program 2018, hereafter USGCRP). This climate change will have sweeping effects on our economy and financial system (Network for Greening the Financial System 2018, hereafter NGFS; USGCRP 2018). Climate-related shifts in the physical environment can slow economic growth, increase volatility, and depreciate the value of business and household assets and property. Avoiding further climate change will involve a substantial transformation of the economy. -
Investment Insights
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE Investment Insights AUGUST 2017 Matthew Diczok A Focus on the Fed Head of Fixed Income Strategy An Overview of the Federal Reserve System and a Look at Potential Personnel Changes SUMMARY After years of accommodative policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on its path to policy normalization. The Fed forecasts another rate hike in late 2017, and three hikes in each of the next two years. The Fed also plans to taper reinvestments of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, gradually reducing its balance sheet. The market thinks differently. Emboldened by inflation persistently below target, it expects the Fed to move significantly more slowly, with only one to three rate hikes between now and early 2019. One way or another, this discrepancy will be reconciled, with important implications for asset prices and yields. Against this backdrop, changes in personnel at the Fed are very important, and have been underappreciated by markets. The Fed has three open board seats, and the Chair and Vice Chair are both up for reappointment in 2018. If the administration appoints a Fed Chair and Vice Chair who are not currently governors, then there will be five new, permanent voting members who determine rate moves—almost half of the 12-member committee. This would be unprecedented in the modern era. Similar to its potential influence on the Supreme Court, this administration has the ability to set the tone of monetary policy for many years into the future. Most rumored candidates share philosophical leanings at odds with the current board; they are generally hawkish relative to current policy, favor rules-based decision-making over discretionary, and are unconvinced that successive rounds of quantitative easing were beneficial. -
November 19, 2008 Letter
November 19, 2008 The Honorable Henry Reid The Honorable Nancy Pelosi Senate Majority Leader Speaker of the House Washington, DC 20510 Washington, DC 20515 The Honorable Mitch McConnell The Honorable John Boehner Senate Minority Leader House Minority Leader Washington, DC 20510 Washington, DC 20515 Dear Sen. Reid, Sen. McConnell, Speaker Pelosi, and Rep. Boehner: We, the undersigned economists, urge Congress to pass a new stimulus package as quickly as possible. The need to deal with financial turmoil has directed attention away from the "real" economy. But the latest data clearly show that the economy is entering a serious recession, initiated by the collapse of homebuilding and intensified by the paralysis of credit markets. Without a fast an effective response by government, the economy could continue to spiral downward, leading to a large increase in unemployment and a sharp decline in GDP. The potential severity of the downturn suggests that a boost to demand on the order of 2.0-3.0 percent of GDP ($300-$400 billion) would be appropriate, with the goal being to get this money spent quickly. The list of targets includes: a) aid to state and local governments that are being forced to make emergency cutbacks as revenues fall; b) extending unemployment insurance and increasing other benefits targeted toward low and moderate income households who are likely to spend quickly; c) moving forward infrastructure projects that have already been planned and scheduled; and d) providing tax credits and other support for "green" projects that can be done quickly, such as retrofitting homes and businesses for increased energy efficiency. -
Mit and Money
Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion UMR CNRS 7321 MIT AND MONEY Documents de travail GREDEG GREDEG Working Papers Series Perry Mehrling GREDEG WP No. 2013-44 http://www.gredeg.cnrs.fr/working-papers.html Les opinions exprimées dans la série des Documents de travail GREDEG sont celles des auteurs et ne reflèlent pas nécessairement celles de l’institution. Les documents n’ont pas été soumis à un rapport formel et sont donc inclus dans cette série pour obtenir des commentaires et encourager la discussion. Les droits sur les documents appartiennent aux auteurs. The views expressed in the GREDEG Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the institution. The Working Papers have not undergone formal review and approval. Such papers are included in this series to elicit feedback and to encourage debate. Copyright belongs to the author(s). MIT and Money Perry Mehrling October 22, 2013 I would like to thank all the participants in the HOPE conference for helpful suggestions and stimulating discussion, and in addition Bob Solow, Roger Backhouse, Goncalo Fonseca, Duncan Foley and Roy Weintraub for thoughtful and searching comment on early drafts. 1 Abstract: The Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951 and the subsequent rebuilding of private capital markets, first domestically and then globally, provided the shifting institutional background against which thinking about money and monetary policy evolved within the MIT economics department. Throughout that evolution, a constant, and a constraint, was the conception of monetary economics that Paul Samuelson had himself developed as early as 1937, a conception that informed the decision to bring in Modigliani in 1962, as well as Foley and Sidrauski in 1965. -
The Vision of Hyman P. Minsky
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Vol. 39 (1999) 129–158 The vision of Hyman P. Minsky Perry Mehrling ∗ Barnard College, 3009 Broadway, New York NY 10027, USA Received 3 March 1998; received in revised form 20 July 1998; accepted 22 July 1998 Abstract ©1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: B3; E5 Keywords: Financial fragility; Financial instability; Speculation; Lender of last resort; Refinance On the mezzanine of Littauer, Schumpeter instructed about the primacy of vision: in particular that we — the young who engaged him in conversation — should develop our vision, we should have a view that in a sense is prescientific of what the game is about, about the way the beast functions, about the way the various parts of economics and social science are related and, yes, about our own maps of Utopia. Once we have a vision, then our control of theory, our command of institutional detail, and our knowledge of history are to be marshaled to support the vision...Schumpeter’s methodology of vision and theory, with theory a servant of vision, may seem cynical, but, in truth, it is honest. It is a way of systematizing thought so that dialogue could take place. The division between vision and technique leads to a recognition that we are marshaling evidence when we do theory, when we analyze data, and when we read history. Schumpeter’s methodology undercuts much of the pretentious nonsense about economics as a science and elevates the importance of discourse, of dialogue, and of just plain good talk for a serious study of society. -
Report September 2000 10/6/03 11:31 AM
Report September 2000 10/6/03 11:31 AM Report September 2000 Volume 10, Number 3 Conference on Saving, Intergenerational transfers, and the distribution of wealth As part of its research program into the causes of and solutions to income inequality, the Levy Institute held a conference from June 7 to 9 on the distribution of wealth. The conference was organized by Senior Scholar Edward N. Wolff. Brief notes on the participants' remarks are given here. CONTENTS Conference Saving, Intergenerational Transfers, and the Distribution of Wealth Workshop on Earnings Inequality Editorial Monetarism is Finally Dead, RIP New Working Papers Trends in Direct Measures of Job Skill Requirements Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Stock-Flow Monetary Framework: A Neo- Kaldorian Model "It" Happened, But Not Again: A Minskian Analysis of Japan's Lost Decade Family Structure, Race, and Wealth Ownership: A Longitudinal Exploration of Wealth Accumulation Processes Can European Banks Survive a Unified Currency in a Nationally Segmented Capital Market? Household Savings in Germany An Examination of the Changes in the Distribution of Wealth from 1989 to 1998: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances Discontinuities in the Distribution of Great Wealth: Sectoral Forces Old and New file://localhost/Volumes/wwwroot/docs/report/rptsep00.html Page 1 of 25 Report September 2000 10/6/03 11:31 AM Profits: The Views of Jerome Levy and Michal Kalecki New Policy Notes Welfare College Students: Measuring the Impact of Welfare Reform Health Care Finance in Need of Rethinking Can the Expansion Be Sustained? A Minskian View Drowning in Debt Levy Institute News Lecture Steve Keen: Toward a General Model of Debt Deflation New Staff Event Publications and Presentations Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service.