Econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
The Slowdown in Productivity Growth and Policies That Can Restore It
FRAMING PAPER | JUNE 2020 The Slowdown in Productivity Growth and Policies That Can Restore It Emily Moss, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh i The Hamilton Project • Brookings ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors are grateful to Lauren Bauer, Barry Bosworth, David Dreyer, Joy Fox, and Kriston McIntosh for insightful comments. We would also like to thank Jimmy O’Donnell, Vincent Pancini, and Jana Parsons for excellent research assistance as well as Alexandra Contreras for superb layout design. The views expressed in this document are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee or anyone else in the Federal Reserve System. MISSION STATEMENT The Hamilton Project seeks to advance America’s promise of opportunity, prosperity, and growth. The Project’s economic strategy reflects a judgment that long-term prosperity is best achieved by fostering economic growth and broad participation in that growth, by enhancing individual economic security, and by embracing a role for effective government in making needed public investments. We believe that today’s increasingly competitive global economy requires public policy ideas commensurate with the challenges of the 21st century. Our strategy calls for combining increased public investments in key growth-enhancing areas, a secure social safety net, and fiscal discipline. In that framework, the Project puts forward innovative proposals from leading economic thinkers — based on credible evidence and experience, not ideology or doctrine — to introduce new and effective policy options into the national debate. The Project is named after Alexander Hamilton, the nation’s first treasury secretary, who laid the foundation for the modern American economy. -
Syllabus for ECON 8501 Fall 2012 Course Requirements Course
Fatih Guvenen University of Minnesota Syllabus for ECON 8501 Fall 2012 This course covers topics at the nexus of macro and labor economics. The main goals of this course are to expose students to research questions at the current frontier, discuss a variety of open questions in this area that can lead to research papers (or possibly to a dissertation), and equip with the tools necessary to tackle these questions. Course Requirements To get credit for this course you will need to (i) make in-class presentations of papers that I will assign (typically one lecture in advance), (ii) write a referee report on one of the papers indicated with a (#) sign, and (iii) write an original research proposal. The deadline for choosing a paper for referee report is October 8th, class time. If you haven’t chosen a paper by then I will assign you one in class that day. The due date for the referee report is October 22nd, class time. The homework assignments will develop various empirical and computational skills and will allow you to familiarize with commonly used data sets and software packages. The research proposal should outline a clear research question and describe how you intend to answer the question posed (which data set you would use, a description of the model, the algorithm for solving it, etc). The proposal will be judged based on the originality of the idea (or the importance of the contribution), the feasibility of the exercise and how specific and detailed the proposal is. An ideal proposal would be one where somebody else could take it and follow the steps you describe to answer the question. -
Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization
For release on delivery 12:30 p.m. EDT July 11, 2017 Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization Remarks by Lael Brainard Member Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at “Normalizing Central Banks’ Balance Sheets: What Is the New Normal?” a conference sponsored by Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, New York July 11, 2017 When the central banks in many advanced economies embarked on unconventional monetary policy, it raised concerns that there might be differences in the cross-border transmission of unconventional relative to conventional monetary policy.1 These concerns were sufficient to warrant a special Group of Seven (G-7) statement in 2013 establishing ground rules to address possible exchange rate effects of the changing composition of monetary policy.2 Today the world confronts similar questions in reverse. In the United States, in my assessment, normalization of the federal funds rate is now well under way, and the Federal Reserve is advancing plans to allow the balance sheet to run off at a gradual and predictable pace. And for the first time in many years, the global economy is experiencing synchronous growth, and authorities in the euro area and the United Kingdom are beginning to discuss the time when the need for monetary accommodation will diminish. Unlike in previous tightening cycles, many central banks currently have two tools for removing accommodation. They can therefore pursue alternative normalization strategies--first seeking to guide policy rates higher before initiating balance sheet runoff, as in the United States, or instead starting to shrink the balance sheet before initiating a 1 I am grateful to John Ammer, Bastian von Beschwitz, Christopher Erceg, Matteo Iacoviello, and John Roberts for their assistance in preparing this text. -
Jelena Mcwilliams-FDIC
www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Voice of the American Sovereign (VOAS) The lawless Municipal Government operated by the "US CONGRESS" Washington, D.C., The smoking gun; do you get it? John Murtha – Impostor committed Treason – Time to sue his estate… Trust through Transparency - Jelena McWilliams - FDIC Chair Theft through Deception - Arnie Rosner - American sovereign, a Californian — and not a US Citizen via the fraudulent 14th Amendment. Sovereignty! TRUMP – THE AMERICAN SOVEREIGNS RULE AMERICA! All rights reserved - Without recourse - 1 of 120 - [email protected] - 714-964-4056 www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC 1.1. The FDIC responds - the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. From: FDIC NoReply <[email protected]> Subject: FDIC Reply - 01003075 Date: April 29, 2019 at 6:36:46 AM PDT To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]> Reply-To: [email protected] April 29, 2019 Ref. No.: 01003075 Re: MUFG Union Bank, National Association, San Francisco, CA Dear Arnold Beryl Rosner: Thank you for your correspondence, which was received by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC's mission is to ensure the stability of and public confidence in the nation's financial system. To achieve this goal, the FDIC has insured deposits and promoted safe and sound banking practices since 1933. We are responsible for supervising state- chartered, FDIC-insured institutions that are not members of the Federal Reserve System. Based on our review of your correspondence, the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. -
Is Inflation Really Transitory?
Is Inflation Really Transitory? By Eric Grover National Review August 17, 2021 Financial-market indicators point to a persistent uptick in inflation. DESPITE a few recent hints of unease, the Fed still maintains that the current surge in inflation is “transitory.” That seems optimistic: The central bank has been stoking inflation and is stubbornly blind to the danger of getting more than it bargained for, of letting loose what Nobel Prize– winning economist Friedrich Hayek described as the “tiger.” Fed chairman Paul Volcker caged inflation after it’d crested at 13.5 percent in 1980. Since then, however, the Fed, politicians, consumers, and producers have become complacent about the risk that it might escape again. The current cocktail of money-printing, massive deficit spending, pandemic- related supply-chain disruptions, and pent-up demand coming out of COVID-19 hibernation means inflation ahead — and not just for the short term. The outlook is only made worse by the hit to the supply side that will come from increased regulation and taxes, not to speak of the boost to energy costs that will flow from the administration’s hostility to fossil fuels. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion in August 2008 to a whopping $8.2 trillion in mid July 2021. However, by paying banks interest to park excess reserves held at the Fed, the central bank has managed to keep new dollars from entering the economy in the form of credit, thereby holding down inflation. Now, printed money is showing up in consumption and price data, and the longer the “transitory” surge endures, the more difficult it will be to contain. -
The Economics of Climate Change: a First Fed Conference Galina B
FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-31 | December 16, 2019 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference Galina B. Hale, Òscar Jordà, and Glenn D. Rudebusch To better understand the implications of climate change for the financial sector and the broader economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently hosted a conference on the economics of climate change to gather and debate the latest analyses from universities and policy institutions, nationally and abroad. It was the first Fed-sponsored conference devoted to investigating the economic and financial consequences and risks arising from climate change and potential policy responses. The scientific community around the world has reached a broad consensus on the ongoing climate change caused by human activities. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), stated, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and the sea level has risen” (p. 40). Scientists also attribute more frequent and extreme storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves to these adverse developments (U.S. Global Change Research Program 2018, hereafter USGCRP). This climate change will have sweeping effects on our economy and financial system (Network for Greening the Financial System 2018, hereafter NGFS; USGCRP 2018). Climate-related shifts in the physical environment can slow economic growth, increase volatility, and depreciate the value of business and household assets and property. Avoiding further climate change will involve a substantial transformation of the economy. -
Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee Chicago, IL April 17, 2014
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 2015, 105(5): 683–688 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.15000009 Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee Chicago, IL April 17, 2014 The first meeting of the 2014 Executive Charles I. Jones, Rachel Kranton, and Fiona Committee was called to order at 10:00 am on Scott Morton. The Nominating Committee and April 17, 2014 in the Heathrow A-B Room of the Executive Committee, acting together as the Hyatt Regency O’Hare Hotel, Chicago, IL. an electoral college, then VOTED to nominate Members present were: David Card, Dora Costa, Robert Shiller as President-elect, and VOTED Esther Duflo by phone , Steven Durlauf, Amy to recognize Robert Barro, Gregory Chow, Finkelstein, Pinelopi( Goldberg,) Claudia Goldin, Robert J. Gordon, and Richard Zeckhauser as Guido Imbens, Anil Kashyap, Jonathan Levin, Distinguished Fellows of the Association. The N. Gregory Mankiw, Rosa Matzkin, William President requested that the Secretary-Treasurer Nordhaus, Andrew Postlewaite, Peter Rousseau, revise the guidelines provided to the committee Matthew Shapiro, Christopher Sims, and Richard to reflect current practices more closely. Thaler. Alan Auerbach, Judith Chevalier, Henry Report of the Committee on Honors and Farber, and Jonathan Skinner participated in part Awards Auerbach . Auerbach explained that of the meeting and Andrew Abel, Susan Athey, nominations( for the) — Clark Medal were solic- and David Laibson participated by phone as ited from economics department heads of major members of the Honors and Awards Committee. research universities. The Honors and Awards Orley Ashenfelter participated in part of the Committee Auerbach chair , Abel, Athey, meeting as chair of the Nominating Committee. -
Investment Insights
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE Investment Insights AUGUST 2017 Matthew Diczok A Focus on the Fed Head of Fixed Income Strategy An Overview of the Federal Reserve System and a Look at Potential Personnel Changes SUMMARY After years of accommodative policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on its path to policy normalization. The Fed forecasts another rate hike in late 2017, and three hikes in each of the next two years. The Fed also plans to taper reinvestments of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, gradually reducing its balance sheet. The market thinks differently. Emboldened by inflation persistently below target, it expects the Fed to move significantly more slowly, with only one to three rate hikes between now and early 2019. One way or another, this discrepancy will be reconciled, with important implications for asset prices and yields. Against this backdrop, changes in personnel at the Fed are very important, and have been underappreciated by markets. The Fed has three open board seats, and the Chair and Vice Chair are both up for reappointment in 2018. If the administration appoints a Fed Chair and Vice Chair who are not currently governors, then there will be five new, permanent voting members who determine rate moves—almost half of the 12-member committee. This would be unprecedented in the modern era. Similar to its potential influence on the Supreme Court, this administration has the ability to set the tone of monetary policy for many years into the future. Most rumored candidates share philosophical leanings at odds with the current board; they are generally hawkish relative to current policy, favor rules-based decision-making over discretionary, and are unconvinced that successive rounds of quantitative easing were beneficial. -
Executive Committee Meeting of April 27, 2012
Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee in Chicago, IL, April 27, 2012 The first meeting of the 2012 Executive Committee was called to order at 10:01 AM on April 27, 2012 in the Writer Room of the Renaissance O’Hare Hotel, Chicago, IL. Members present were: Orley Ashenfelter, Alan Auerbach, Janet Currie, Pinelopi Goldberg, Claudia Goldin, Jonathan Gruber, Robert Hall, Anil Kashyap, Rosa Matzkin, Christina Paxson, Monika Piazzesi, Andrew Postlewaite, Valerie Ramey, Nancy Rose, John Siegfried, Christopher Sims, and Michael Woodford. Executive Committee members David Autor and Esther Duflo participated in parts of the meeting by phone. Caroline Hoxby participated in part of the meeting and Abhijit Banerjee and Vincent Crawford participated by phone as members of the Honors and Awards Committee. Angus Deaton participated in part of the meeting as chair of the Nominating Committee. Associate Secretary- Treasurer Peter Rousseau also attended. Sims welcomed the newly elected members of the 2012 Executive Committee: Claudia Goldin, President-elect, Christina Paxson and Nancy Rose, Vice-presidents; and Anil Kashyap and Rosa Matzkin, and recognized the Secretary at the last meeting of his 16 year tenure. The Minutes of the January 5, 2012 meeting of the Executive Committee were approved as written. Report of the Secretary (Siegfried). Siegfried reviewed the schedule for sites and dates of future meetings: San Diego, January 4-6, 2013 (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday); Philadelphia, January 3-5, 2014 (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday); Boston, January 3-5, 2015 (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday); San Francisco, January 3-5, 2016 (Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday); Chicago, January 6-8, 2017 (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday); Atlanta, January 5-7, 2018 (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday; Philadelphia, January 4-6, 2019 (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday); and San Diego, January 3-5, 2020 (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday). -
Investing Amidst a New Fed Policy Regime
SPOTLIGHT | SEPTEMBER 2020 INVESTING AMIDST A NEW FED POLICY REGIME Key points ■ September saw the end of the US Federal Reserve’s inflation ■ The negative inflation adjusted interest rate regime that will containment policy regime in place since the 1970s. likely be targeted should also drive the next leg of the gold bull Coordinated fiscal and monetary policy actions taken in the market that began in 2018 when the US Federal Reserve ended 1940s provide a potential road map to understand what lies its brief rate hiking cycle. ahead for investors, with negative inflation adjusted interest ■ With stimulus targeted towards transformation stories among rates and substantial and growing future deficits. economies in Europe, China and potentially the US, this ■ Until such synchronisation occurs formally, likely post-US should provide an opportunity for investors to continue to election, the US may resemble the Europe of the past decade align portfolios with policymakers under this new regime. with the economy relying on monetary life support, benefitting ■ Given the leverage in the global economy and the early signs credit investors in the near term. of political reluctance in both the US and Europe to sustain ■ Once policy coordination is deployed, a reflationary backdrop the fiscal largesse likely needed to generate the growth and should provide a catalyst for the next stage of the US dollar inflation required, risk management will be key as the global bear market that has begun in 2020. This should drive economy transitions to the post-pandemic world ahead. further strength in the EUR/USD while the Australian dollar’s fundamentals leave it well positioned. -
The Fed's New Framework
FEDERAL RESERVE BY TIM SABLIK The Fed’s New Framework With a revised strategy, the Fed responds to challenges facing central banks today ost people know that the Fed makes periodic changes to mone- M tary policy by changing interest rates. What is perhaps less well known is that since 2012 the Fed’s approach to monetary policy has been guided by a public strategy document that defines the Fed’s longer-run goals. The Fed has made minor updates to this framework over the years, but in August 2020, it unveiled a major revision of its policy strategy. The original 2012 statement on longer-run goals outlined how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s policymaking body, would seek to achieve its dual mandate from Congress of maintaining maxi- mum employment and stable prices. The FOMC announced as its goal an inflation rate of 2 percent, measured by the personal consumption expen- Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks at a Fed Listens event in Chicago on June 4, 2019. ditures (PCE) price index. It declined to set a specific target for maximum the Fed’s policy framework stretches would eliminate any potential confu- employment, noting that the maxi- back further than that, reflect- sion in the markets, ensuring smoother mum level of employment the economy ing changes in the challenges facing implementation of policy changes. can sustain changes over time and is central banks over the decades. Additionally, research suggested that largely driven by nonmonetary factors. announcing a long-term goal for infla- The Fed’s new framework sets a goal CHOOSING A TARGET tion would help anchor the public’s for inflation that averages 2 percent expectations for inflation, making it over time, meaning that the FOMC When Congress established the Fed’s easier to maintain stable prices over will now allow periods of higher infla- dual mandate in 1977, the FOMC was the long run. -
Sels Through the Canal As Quickly As Possible, Without Any Impedimen
630 Panama Canal Treaty of 1977 shall so be interpreted, to assure the transit of such ves- (3) The President— sels through the Canal as quickly as possible, without (A) shall have announced, before the date of entry any impediment, with expedited treatment, and in into force of the Treaty, his intention to transfer, case of need or emergency, to go to the head of the line consistent with an agreement with the Republic of vessels in order to transit the Canal rapidly.’’’ of Panama, and before the date of termination of the Panama Canal Treaty, to the American Battle (b) CONDITIONS: Monuments Commission the administration of (1) Notwithstanding the provisions of Article V or any such part of Corozal Cemetery as encompasses other provision of the Treaty, if the Canal is closed, or the remains of citizens of the United States of its operations are interfered with, the United States of America; and America and the Republic of Panama shall each inde- (B) shall have announced, immediately after the date pendently have the right to take such steps as each of exchange of instruments of ratification, plans, deems necessary, in accordance with its constitutional to be carried out at the expense of the Govern- processes, including the use of military force in the ment of the United States of America, for Republic of Panama, to reopen the Canal or restore (i) removing, before the date of entry into force the operations of the Canal, as the case may be. of the Treaty, the remains of citizens of the (2) The instruments of ratification of the Treaty shall