Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Federal Reserve Nominees 5.15.2018

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Federal Reserve Nominees 5.15.2018 Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Federal Reserve Nominees 5.15.2018 On May 15th, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to consider the following nominations: The Honorable Richard Clarida, of Connecticut, to be a Member and Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Ms. Michelle Bowman, of Kansas, to be a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Key Takeaways Both nominees expressed support for the tailoring of financial regulation to the size and complexity of the institution, but highlighted the need to continue to ensure safety and soundness in the financial system. Both nominees expressed support for the continued normalization of the Fed’s balance sheet. Democratic Members asked nominees about recent Federal Reserve proposals that would adjust capital standards. The following themes consistently emerged throughout the hearing: Tailoring of regulations o Chairman Crapo (R-ID) asked the nominees their thoughts on tailoring regulations to the size and complexity of individual institutions. Clarida said that tailoring and efficiency of regulations are important goals while at the same time continuing to ensure the safety and soundness of the financial system. Bowman highlighted the need to apply the appropriate amount of regulation depending on size and complexity of the institution. o Senator Tillis (R-NC) asked witnesses about whether S.2155 was an appropriate way to tailor regulations. Bowman discussed the importance of tailoring regulations but did not specifically discuss 2155. Fed balance sheet / Quantitative Easing o Chairman Crapo (R-ID) asked the nominees about normalization of the Fed balance sheet. Clarida said that Fed Chairman Powell’s recent proposal seems to make sense, but he has not studied the numbers in detail yet. o Senator Toomey (R-PA) asked nominees about continuing normalization of the Fed balance sheet and, given the unprecedent actions of the Fed in recent years, what is normal? He also asked about quantitative easing. Clarida said there are costs and benefits to QE, which should be considered. Bowman agreed that normalization is the appropriate path forward. Community Reinvestment Act o Senator Cortez Masto (D-NV) asked the nominees about the Administration’s plan to modernize the CRA. Bowman said that it is important and that the Administration is reviewing the CRA, but it is important to keep in mind the needs of all parts of communities. Clarida also said he would be open to review, but the CRA is important and any modernization effort needs to respect the essential mission of the law. Housing finance reform o Senator Tester (D-MT) asked nominees whether they thought there should be a government guarantee for the 30 year fixed note. Bowman said that they 30 year fixed rate note is important for community members, and without some sort of guarantee she did not think banks would be able to offer the product. Clarida also said that it has served the country well for a long time, and sees it as an important product going forward as well. o Tester (D-MT) also asked whether the GSE conservatorship has had a negative impact on the economy. Both Clarida and Bowman said that it is not a desirable state. Market volatility o Senator Scott (R-SC) asked nominees whether stock market volatility would impact their decisions regarding raising interest rates. Both said that it would not, as market volatility is not one of the pillars of monetary policy. Scott agreed with them, and said that low interest rates are bad for savers and seniors. Non-Bank SIFI designation o Senator Scott (R-SC) asked whether an activities based approach makes sense for SIFI designation. Scott also noted that he would like to see more clarity around what gets an institution designated and how an institution gets undesignated. Clarida said that an activities based approach does make sense, but that he hasn’t studied the topic in detail. Capital Requirements o Ranking Member Brown (D-OH) asked witnesses whether capital requirements are the most important rules for banks to be able to withstand tough economic conditions. Bowman noted that capital requirements are important, but said that liquidity requirements are also very important. Brown asked both nominees whether they would oppose recent Fed proposals to weaken leverage requirements for large institutions. Neither witnesses would commit to opposing the proposals, but said they would study all proposals carefully. Cybersecurity o Senator Reed (D-RI) asked whether the nominees thought bank holding companies should be required to have cybersecurity expertise on their boards, and if there was anything the fed should do to encourage this? Both nominees said that cybersecurity is increasingly important, but did not comment on the direct proposal. State-based insurance framework o Senator Scott (R-SC) asked the nominees whether they support the current state based insurance regulatory framework. Bowman said that a dialogue with state regulators is important, and she would look to continue to this dialogue with state insurance regulators. .
Recommended publications
  • NY Fed President ❖ Lael Brainard – Governor ❖ Randall Quarles – Vice Chair for Supervision ❖ Michelle Bowman-Governor
    1 2 Interest Rates – from 3000 BC Source: Business Insider 3 Yield Curve 101 ❖ Fed Funds – 2.40% (2.25%-2.50%) ❖ +75 bps ❖ =3.15% 2-year note yield (2.52%) ❖ +100 bps ❖ =4.15% 10-year note yield (2.66%) ❖ +50 bps ❖ =4.40% 30-year bond yield (3.00%) ❖ Yield Curve is Flat 4 Treasury Yield Curve-2018-2019 Source: Bloomberg 5 Treasury Yield Curve 2018-2019 Source: Bloomberg 6 U.S. vs. German Yield Curves Source: Bloomberg 7 Source: Walt Handelsman - Newsday 8 Economic Growth – 2004-2018 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 9 Economic Growth – 1947-2018 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 10 11 Key to Economy – Innovative New Jobs 12 Beneficiaries of Economic Innovation 13 Measures of Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics •U-3: Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate). •U-6: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. 14 U.S. Unemployment Rate U-3 Source: BLS and Bloomberg 15 U.S. Unemployment Rate U-6 Source: BLS and Bloomberg 16 U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (2009-Present) Source: BLS and Bloomberg 17 U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (1939-Present) Source: BLS and Bloomberg 18 Weekly Initial Jobless Claims(2009-Present) Source: DOL and Bloomberg 19 Weekly Initial Jobless Claims(1967-Present) Source: DOL and Bloomberg 20 21 German Inflation – 1918-1923 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 22 Wages vs Inflation (PCE Core YoY) – 2007-2019 Source: BEA, BLS & Bloomberg
    [Show full text]
  • US Dec FOMC Minutes: on Pause for “A Time”
    Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro Note US Dec FOMC Minutes: On Pause For “A Time” Monday, 06 January 2020 . In the latest minutes, markets did not get much new insights on what would change the outlook for the Fed Reserve policy rate trajectory. FOMC policy makers regarded current rate stance as likely to remain appropriate for ”a time”, helping to reinforce expectations for a Fed policy cycle pause after three sequential 25bps rate cuts in July, September and October but provided little else in Alvin Liew Senior Economist terms of new information. [email protected] . Similar to market expectations, we too subscribe to the view that the Fed Reserve will stay on Heng Koon How pause in its upcoming 28/29 January 2020 FOMC. But in contrast to the view of a more prolonged Head of Markets Strategy [email protected] Fed pause, we still expect the Fed to implement the next 25bps rate cut in 1Q 2020 which will be at the March FOMC, and thereafter to stay on pause again for the rest of 2020. The factors determining our Fed policy outlook is still the international trade developments and now, the additional factor of US-Iran developments. Conversely, if the trade negotiation progresses smoothly into 2020 and the US-Iran tensions does not boil over into a full-fledged military confrontation, then the “insurance” cut will be unnecessary. The view remains for the Fed Reserve to keep policy rates low or even lower in 2020. 10/11 Dec 2019 FOMC Minutes: Keeping Policy Steady For “A Time” The trouble brewing in the Middle East largely overshadowed the special Friday release of the 10/11 December 2019 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (4 Jan, Saturday 3am SGT) and markets did not get much new insights on what would change the outlook for the Fed from details of the minutes.
    [Show full text]
  • Federal Reserve Appointments and the Politics of Senate Confirmation
    Federal Reserve appointments and the politics of Senate confirmation Caitlin Ainsley University of Washington [email protected] Abstract This paper examines the politicization of Federal Reserve (Fed) appointments. In contrast to the extant appointment literature's almost exclusive focus on ideological proximity as a predictor of Fed nominations and confirmations, I theorize that senators will be more likely to vote against confirmation when their constituents have little con- fidence in the Fed because it allows them to more credibly defer blame on the Fed for economic downturns. Drawing on novel estimates of state-level confidence in the Fed as well as new common space estimates of senators' and central bankers' monetary policy preferences, I demonstrate that when constituents do not have confidence in the Fed, senators are less likely to vote in favor of confirmation regardless of their ideological proximity to the nominee. The results have important implications for the ability to fill Fed vacancies and, in turn, the balance of power between the Fed and regional bank Presidents in the monetary policymaking process. Keywords: Federal Reserve, Senate Confirmation, Public Opinion, Central Bank Preferences JEL Codes: P16, E58, D72 1 Introduction This article investigates the politics of Senate confirmations for Federal Reserve (Fed) nomi- nations. Scholars of central banking have long recognized the importance of the appointment process for the politics of monetary policymaking. For many scholars, that is considered a primary channel through which partisan politics affects decision-making at the central bank (Adolph, 2013; Chappell, Havrilesky and McGregor, 1993; Chappell, McGregor and Ver- milyea, 2004). Given that conventional wisdom, it is unsurprising that presidential power to nominate individuals to the Fed's Board of Governors and its associated leadership po- sitions has received considerable attention in the extant literature.
    [Show full text]
  • Fed Listens Covid-19 Update
    Perspectives from the Public Part of the Federal Reserve’s Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices June 2020 FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONTENTS INTRODUCTORY NOTE FROM CHAIR POWELL . .v FOREWORD: FED LISTENS COVID-19 UPDATE . .vii PART 1: THE FED LISTENS INITIATIVE . 1 PART 2: EVENT SUMMARIES . 11 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas . 11 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis . 20 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond . 27 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston . 36 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia . 41 Federal Reserve Bank of New York . 45 Federal Reserve System . 48 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland . 57 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta . 68 Federal Reserve Bank of St . Louis . 75 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco . 91 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System . 97 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City . 101 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago . 104 Update, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System . 109 PART 3: FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM RESEARCH CONFERENCE . 113 ABBREVIATIONS . 131 INTRODUCTORY NOTE FROM CHAIR POWELL In 2019, the Federal Reserve launched—for the first time—a review of the monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices we use to pursue our congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and price stability . Reviews like ours are part of good institutional practice, providing an opportunity to take a step back and ask whether we could be doing our job more effectively . A central part of our review was Fed Listens, a series of events held around the country to consult with a range of organizations—employee groups and union members, small business owners, residents of low- and moderate-income communities, retirees, and others—on the effects that labor market conditions, inflation, and interest rates have on them .
    [Show full text]
  • What Should We Know About the Next Recession? | Economic Policy Institute
    What should we know about the next recession? Report • By Josh Bivens • April 18, 2019 What this report finds: The U.S. is poorly prepared for the next recession—but not for the reasons most people think (allegedly too-high public debt and too-low interest rates). Instead, we’re poorly prepared because we never made a dent in reducing inequality during the current economic expansion, and because too many of our policymakers have not fully grasped the economic fact that fiscal policy, particularly increases to public spending, is the most effective tool for ending a recession and aiding recovery. Monetary policy (Federal Reserve action) plays an important supporting role, but it cannot fight a recession by itself. Why it matters: There is a real possibility that the U.S. economy could slip into a recession sometime in the next 18 months. Unfortunately, for political reasons, policymakers are often resistant to increasing public spending during a recession—especially when the debt-to-GDP ratio is high—even though overwhelming evidence shows that that is the most effective way to put a quick end to a recession. What can be done about it: Heading into the next recession, policymakers should be ready with proposals that provide an effective fiscal boost to aggregate demand growth.olicies P should be constructed not only to be effective economically, but also to be effective politically, in order to ensure broad and engaged popular support. • Washington, DC View this report at epi.org/165688 Introduction This June will mark 10 years of consistent economic expansion since the end of the Great Recession.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
    REPORT TO CONGRESS 107th Annual Report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2020 BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM REPORT TO CONGRESS 107th Annual Report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2020 BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM v Contents About the Federal Reserve ........................................................................................... vii 1 Overview ....................................................................................................................... 1 2 Monetary Policy and Economic Developments ..................................................... 3 February 2021 Summary ................................................................................................... 3 June 2020 Summary ........................................................................................................ 8 3 Financial Stability ..................................................................................................... 15 Monitoring Risks to Financial Stability .............................................................................. 15 Domestic and International Cooperation and Coordination ................................................. 23 4 Supervision and Regulation .................................................................................... 25 Supervised and Regulated Institutions ............................................................................. 26 Supervisory Developments .............................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Atlanta Fed President
    1 2 Treasury Yield Curve-2017 Source: Bloomberg 3 Municipal Aaa Yield Curve-2017 Source: Bloomberg 4 Treasury vs. Muni Aaa Yield Curve –Jan 17 Source: Bloomberg 5 Treasury vs. Muni Aaa Yield Curve-Nov 17 Source: Bloomberg 6 Interest Rates – from 3000 BC Source: Business Insider 7 Economic Growth – 2007-2017 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 8 Economic Growth – GDPNow Forecast Source: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model 9 U.S. Unemployment Rate U-3 Source: BLS and Bloomberg 10 U.S. Unemployment Rate U-6 Source: BLS and Bloomberg 11 U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (2007-Present) Source: BLS and Bloomberg 12 Weekly Initial Jobless Claims(1967-Present) Source: DOL and Bloomberg 13 Inflation (PCE Core YoY) – 2007-2017 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 14 Inflation (CPI Core YoY) – 2007-2017 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 15 Inflation (PPI Core YoY) – 2007-2017 Source: BEA & Bloomberg 16 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) – 2007-2017 Source: BLS & Bloomberg 17 Equity Market (Dow) – 2009 (low)-2017 Source: Bloomberg 18 High Yield – 2012-2017 Source: Bloomberg 19 U.S. Econ Forecasts – Street November 15, 2017 Source: Bloomberg Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2019 17 18 18 18 18 19 GDP 2.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% (2.50%- 3.50%) Core PCE 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% (U-3) 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% Non-farm 193k 165k 160k 150k 150k 141k 171K 157k 134K 134K Payrolls 20 U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • October 22, 2019 VIA FAX Information Disclosure Section Federal
    October 22, 2019 VIA FAX Information Disclosure Section Federal Reserve 20th & Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20551 (202) 872-7565 Re: Freedom of Information Act Request Dear FOIA Officer: Pursuant to the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), 5 U.S.C. § 552, and the implementing regulations of your agency, American Oversight makes the following request for records. The Trump administration has eased supervision over leveraged loans.1 As a result, this market has undergone an enormous expansion.2 Although the precise size of the market has been difficult to ascertain, it is reported to be valued at trillions of dollars.3 Experts have expressed concerns about the risks associated with leveraged loans,4 including that banks are originating loans to increasingly indebted companies and foregoing crucial protections on their capital.5 As such, certain experts are afraid that these instruments are 1 Kristen Haunss, Regulatory Crackdown Unlikely in Leveraged Loan Market, REUTERS (Mar. 15, 2019, 11:25 AM), https://www.reuters.com/article/regulatory-crackdown-unlikely-in-us- leve/regulatory-crackdown-unlikely-in-us-leveraged-loan-market-idUSL1N2120Q6. 2 Damian Paletta, How Regulators, Republicans, and Big Banks Fought for a Big Increase in Lucrative but Risky Corporate Loans, WASH. POST (Apr. 6, 2019, 6:21 PM), https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-regulators-republicans-and- big-banks-fought-for-a-big-increase-in-lucrative-but-risky-corporate- loans/2019/04/06/08c8cd58-4b1e-11e9-b79a-961983b7e0cd_story.html. 3 Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Corporate Debt Continues to Rise As Do Problem Leveraged Loans, FORBES (Jul. 25, 2019, 2:38 PM), https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2019/07/25/u-s-corporate-debt- continues-to-rise-as-do-problem-leveraged-loans/#88aba1e35966.
    [Show full text]
  • Daily Futures Market Commentary Financial Forecast
    Daily Futures Market Commentary Financial Forecast by Alan Bush, Senior Financial Economist March 22, 2021 STOCK INDEX FUTURES NASDAQ futures are being supported by falling U.S. interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak today at a Bank for International Settlements conference on innovation in the digital age starting at 8:00 central time. On Tuesday, Powell will testify before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, and on Wednesday he will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The February Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index was negative 1.09 when 0.72 was expected. The 9:00 central time February existing home sales report is anticipated to be 6.5 million. Stock index futures are performing well despite recent weak economic data. CURRENCY FUTURES The U.S. dollar is lower, and the euro currency is higher as U.S. yields decline. Traders are awaiting fresh data on the European Central Bank’s weekly bond purchases as the central bank is seen accelerating the pace of its bond-buying activities. The “commodity currencies,” the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar are lower in light of weaker crude oil prices. INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES In addition to Fed Chair Powell, other Federal Reserve speakers today are Thomas Barkin at 9:30, Mary Daly at 12:00, Randal Quarles at 12:30 and Michelle Bowman at 6:15. ADMIS.com | 312.242.7000 | Chicago | New York | London | Hong Kong | Singapore | Taipei | Shanghai The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT ADM.
    [Show full text]
  • Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council Meeting
    Meeting Between Chair Powell, Governor Bowman, Staff of the Federal Reserve System, and the Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council November 8, 2019 Participants: Chair Jerome H. Powell, Governor Michelle Bowman, Ann Misback, Margaret Shanks, Joshua Gallin, Suzanne Killian, Robin Prager, Todd Vermilyea, Brian Tabit, William Tiernay, Maureen Yap, Brandon Howell, Darren Gersh, Nancy Riley, Mason Wesenberg, Aurite Werman, Joshua Smolevitz, Katie Ross, Jackie Smith, Yvette McKnight, Allison Lamb, Meaghan Shkreli, and Wanda Quick (Federal Reserve Board); Rebecca Gunn (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); and James Fuchs (Federal Reseve Bank of St. Louis) Dorothy A. Savarese, Tyrone E. Muse, Christopher D. Maher, T. Michael Price, Robert A. DeAlmeida, Alvin J. Cowans, Douglas S. Gordon, Margaret Oldner, Shari Laven, Brad Koehn, Joe Quiroga, and Richard M. Sanborn (CDIAC members); and Robert Davis (Consultant) Summary: Board members and staff of the Federal Reserve System met with the Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council (CDIAC), an advisory group established by the Federal Reserve Board (Board) to provide input about the economy, lending conditions, and other issues of interest to community depository institutions.1 During the meeting, CDIAC members discussed faster payments in light of the Board’s development of the FedNow Service, a round-the-clock, real-time payment and settlement service (Docket No. OP-1670). CDIAC members stressed that FedNow development should proceed expeditiously and that the service needed to be interoperable with other payment networks, including the payment network developed by The Clearing House. A CDIAC member noted that the ability to offer real-time processing of small dollar transactions through apps such as Venmo is crucial to attracting millennial customers and that a significant delay in implementing FedNow could put community banks at a competitive disadvantage with their nonbank and larger-bank competitors.
    [Show full text]
  • Download the Complete Issue
    FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COMMUNITY BANKING CONNECTIONS® A SUPERVISION AND REGULATION PUBLICATION A Message from Governor Bowman Fourth Issue 2020 by Governor Michelle W. Bowman As 2020 draws to a close, Districts and met with many more bankers through I wish you all a happy, virtual meetings involving national and state bankers healthy, and safe holiday associations. As of December, I have individually met with season. The end of the year nearly 150 CEOs of community banks supervised by the is a time to reflect, take Fed. If we haven’t yet had the opportunity to meet, I look stock of the year past, and forward to our conversation. plan for the year ahead. I Economic and banking conditions related to the would first like to recognize pandemic response have been the focus of these the tremendous efforts of conversations with bankers, specifically the pandemic’s community bankers serving effect on community banks and their customers, and Governor Michelle W. Bowman their communities. While banks’ participation in recovery programs. The effects of 2020 will be remembered the pandemic have varied regionally, with some bankers for the pandemic, natural disasters also affected many reporting little negative impact to their communities, areas of the country. In the face of all this adversity, while others experienced more severe impact to their community bankers responded to meet the needs of their local economies. Bankers recounted stories about customers and communities, and as a nation, we have how they are working with customers and borrowers been successful in adapting to and evolving through the affected by the pandemic, offering loan modifications significant changes in our lives.
    [Show full text]
  • Preparing Charlie for the FOMC
    Preparing Charlie for the FOMC February 21, 2019 Spencer Krane Senior Vice President, Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The views expressed are my own and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System. 0 The Federal Reserve System 1 Goals of Monetary Policy Price stability – Symmetric 2% PCE inflation Full employment – May change over time for nonmonetary reasons – December 2018 FOMC median estimate: 4.4% Balanced approach – Take balanced approach if goals in conflict 2 How Do We Achieve These Goals? Try to balance aggregate demand and aggregate supply If aggregate demand less than aggregate supply – Underutilized productive resources => miss on full employ. – Downward pressure on inflation => could have inflation below 2% If aggregate demand greater than aggregate supply – Overutilized productive resources – Upward pressure on inflation => could have inflation above 2% Use interest rate tools to align aggregate demand and supply 3 What Monetary Policy Can And Cannot Affect Aggregate Supply: Not very Aggregate Demand: Sensitive to Monetary Policy Sensitive to Monetary Policy Available labor Household spending – Demographics and skills – Incentives to save and consume, wealth effects Capital stock – Plant, equipment, Business investment software, housing, etc. – Cost of capital, product demand Productivity – Technology, institutions, Net exports regulations – Effects on dollar 4 Balancing Aggregate Demand and Supply Aggregate Supply: Not very Aggregate Demand: Sensitive to Monetary
    [Show full text]