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Views on the Economy and Price-Level Targeting
Views on the Economy and Price-Level Targeting Raphael Bostic President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Atlanta Economics Club Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Atlanta, Georgia May 21, 2018 • Atlanta Fed president and CEO Raphael Bostic speaks at the Atlanta Economics Club’s luncheon about the economy, his economic outlook, and the Fed’s inflation target. • Bostic: The economy is arguably as close to the Fed's employment and inflation goals as it's been over this expansion. • Bostic continues to see the economy growing above potential this year, around 2 1/2 percent, and slowing to its longer-run growth rate of around 1 3/4 percent over the medium term. • Bostic notes that an upside risk to his economic outlook is the prospect for capital spending given tax reform, while a downside risk is the uncertainty about changes in trade policy. • Bostic asks if the current monetary policy framework is still the right one, noting that once monetary policy has normalized, the federal funds rate will settle at a level significantly below historical norms. • Bostic explains that if the real rate of interest is likely to remain low, then giving the Fed enough room to fight even run-of-the-mill economic downturns requires boosting the nominal rate of interest. • To increase the nominal rate, Bostic is drawn to a monetary policy framework that has a version of price-level targeting. • Bostic believes a sound policy framework provides a credible nominal anchor while maintaining flexibility to address changing circumstances, and flexible price-level targeting can be a part of such a framework. -
IFFCBANO Symposium: Keeping Trade Moving
IFFCBANO Symposium: Keeping Trade Moving Adrienne C. Slack Regional Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - New Orleans Branch The views expressed here are my own, and not necessarily those of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve System. The Fed’s Dual Mandate • The Fed is pursuing two objectives as given to us by Congress— maximum employment and price stability. • The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the job market, although a stronger economy does help with job creation. • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has chosen an inflation target of two percent per year over the medium term as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. 2 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Randal Quarles Jerome H. Powell Richard H. Clarida Lael Brainard Vice Chair for Chair Vice Chair Supervision Vacant Michelle W. Bowman Vacant 3 The Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Loretta Mester Charles Evans Neel Kashkari Patrick Harker Eric Rosengren Cleveland Chicago Minneapolis Philadelphia Boston 4th District 7th District 9th District 3rd District 1st District John Williams New York 2nd District Tom Barkin Richmond 5th District Mary Daly San Francisco Esther George Raphael Bostic Robert Kaplan James Bullard 12th District Kansas City Atlanta 10th District Dallas St. Louis 6th District 11th District 8th District 4 The Sixth District Information Flow Public Sixth Policy District Business Sixth FOMC District Research Sixth Atlanta District Board of President Directors 6 Summary of the Economic Environment: The May 2019 FOMC Policy Statement • Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity rose at a solid rate. -
The Fed in the Changing Room
ECONOMIC POLICY NOTE 16/10/2017 The Fed in the changing room AGNIESZKA GEHRINGER President Trump will soon nominate new members to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and the Federal Open Market Committee. The new nomination could lead to a change in the Fed’s approach to monetary policy. Consistency and predictability are not the strengths of this US president. Hence, his appointments may well induce some market volatility. The US Federal Reserve is in a changing room. campaign has not been heard since. The Three out of seven positions on its Board of president has even turned to “like low rates”.1 Governors are vacant. Moreover, the term of This leaves a good chance for a candidate Janet Yellen chairing the Board and thus the promising a continuation of the cautious Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy course under Janet Yellen. But expires on January 31, 2018. President Donald other options remain on the cards. Trump could grasp the opportunity to shape the US monetary policy in the foreseeable future How might the FOMC change in 2018? and nominate candidates – both for the Board The FOMC consists of twelve members: seven of Governors and among them for the FOMC- members of the Board of Governors of the chair – who best suit his policy preferences. Federal Reserve System; the president of the There are some uncertainties in the process. Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of Most importantly, it is difficult to figure out the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, which exact policy priorities would drive the who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.2 president’s choice. -
Commercial Real Estate Grapples with Going Green in Recession
Print California Real Estate Journal Online Article Page 1 of 4 California Real Estate Journal Newswire Articles www.carealestatejournal.com © 2009 The Daily Journal Corporation. All rights reserved. • select Print from the File menu above CREJ FRONT PAGE • Jan. 26, 2009 Commercial Real Estate Grapples With Going Green in Recession California developers and manufacturers await details of Obama's stimulus plan Developers and manufactures await details of Obama's stimulus plan By KEELEY WEBSTER CREJ Staff Writer Even as U.S. President Barack Obama has been making headlines for his "green team" and a proposal to invest $150 billion over the next 10 years in green energy, Hayward-based Optisolar was forced to lay off 130 employees, or 50 percent of its workforce. Optisolar Inc., a vertically integrated manufacturer of solar panels, is down, but not out. "We are hopeful that the new attitude in Washington will enable us to come out of this holding pattern," said Alan Bernheimer, the company's vice president of corporate communications. The employees who were laid off were hired to deal with the exponential growth the company was expecting after the interest in all-things-green took off and a series of federal, state and local policies and legislative initiatives took form to promote green business and development. But when Optisolar was not able to access the equity investment it needed for its planned manufacturing expansion, it was forced to trim staffing to what the current state of the business could support, Bernheimer said. That state includes a solar farm under construction in Canada. -
Inflation Targeting
A SYMPOSIUM OF VIEWS Inflation Targeting Should the Federal Reserve in its conduct of monetary policy follow ome argue that while Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, in office since 1987, has been an extraordinarily sub- Stle and skillful manager, his successor may not en- the European Central joy these unique skills. Thus, the system needs eventually to agree on a series of guiding benchmarks if not a target for use Bank and adopt some in the conduct of monetary policy. Globally, such an addi- tional tool might help in the convergence process and po- form of inflation target tentially create more stability for exchange rates. Others counter that it is not wise to lock the system range? TIE asked thirteen into a simplistic rule, or set of rules, particularly at a time of continued geopolitical uncertainty. Still others distinguished experts. counter that the European Central Bank established provisions that have successfully anticipated such ex- ternal shocks to the system. Is the time approaching for the U.S. central bank to adopt an inflation target or inflation target range? Or does the U.S. monetary system require a more prag- THE MAGAZINE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY matic and intuitive approach? To what extent should an 2099 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 950 Washington, D.C. 20006 inflation target be discretionary? Phone: 202-861-0791, Fax: 202-861-0790 www.international-economy.com 24 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY WINTER 2004 I will therefore simply sketch out what has worked well for us at the ECB. We announced our monetary poli- Inflation targets are cy strategy in October 1998. -
January 2021 Fri, Jan 1
January 2021 Fri, Jan 1 All Day Bank Holiday 1 January 2021 Mon, Jan 4 All Day 2021 AEA/ASSA Annual Meeting Virtual Event 8:30 AM – 8:55 AM Morning Checkpoint Call John to dial in 8:55 AM – 9:00 AM Blocked 9:00 AM – 9:30 AM Markets Group 9:05/9:20 Conference Call John to dial in 9:30 AM – 2:00 PM Blocked 2:00 PM ‐2:30 PM Meeting with Daleep Singh Skype 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM Blocked Tue, Jan 5 All Day 2021 AEA/ASSA Annual Meeting Virtual Event 9:00 AM – 9:30 AM Markets Group 9:05/9:20 Conference Call John to dial in 9:30 AM – 12:00 PM Blocked 12:00 PM – 12:30 PM Meeting with the Board John to dial in 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Blocked 1:00 PM – 1:45 PM Weekly Email Discussion Skype 1:45 PM – 2:00 PM Blocked 2:00 PM – 2:30 PM Weekly Meeting with Chair Jay Powell Skype 2:30 PM – 3:30 PM Blocked 3:30 PM – 3:45 PM Tech Set‐Up for ASSA Panel: The Monetary‐Fiscal Nexus with Ultra Low Interest Rates Zoom 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM John to chair ASSA Panel: The Monetary‐Fiscal Nexus with Ultra Low Interest Rates Zoom 5:45 PM – 6:00 PM Blocked 1 January 2021 Wed, Jan 6 8:30 AM – 8:55 AM Morning Checkpoint Call John to dial in 8:55 AM – 9:00 AM Blocked 9:00 AM – 9:30 AM Markets Group 9:05/9:20 Conference Call John to dial in 9:30 AM – 10:00 AM Phone Call with Barbara Van Allen, ECNY John to initiate the call 10:00 AM – 10:15 AM Phone Call with Luiz Pereira da Silva, BIS Deputy General Manager John to initiate the call 10:15 AM – 10:30 AM Blocked 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM Government Relations Committee Meeting Skype 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM Blocked 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM FVP Interview -
Annual Report 2014–15 © 2015 National Council of Applied Economic Research
National Council of Applied Economic Research Annual Report Annual Report 2014–15 2014–15 National Council of Applied Economic Research Annual Report 2014–15 © 2015 National Council of Applied Economic Research August 2015 Published by Dr Anil K. Sharma Secretary & Head Operations and Senior Fellow National Council of Applied Economic Research Parisila Bhawan, 11 Indraprastha Estate New Delhi 110 002 Telephone: +91-11-2337-9861 to 3 Fax: +91-11-2337-0164 Email: [email protected] www.ncaer.org Compiled by Jagbir Singh Punia Coordinator, Publications Unit ii | NCAER Annual Report 2014-15 NCAER | Quality . Relevance . Impact The National Council of Applied Economic Research, or NCAER as it is more commonly known, is India’s oldest and largest independent, non-profit, economic policy research institute. It is also one of a handful of think tanks globally that combine rigorous analysis and policy outreach with deep data collection capabilities, especially for household surveys. NCAER’s work falls into four thematic NCAER’s roots lie in Prime Minister areas: Nehru’s early vision of a newly- independent India needing independent • Growth, macroeconomics, trade, institutions as sounding boards for international finance, and economic the government and the private sector. policy; Remarkably for its time, NCAER was • The investment climate, industry, started in 1956 as a public-private domestic finance, infrastructure, labour, partnership, both catering to and funded and urban; by government and industry. NCAER’s • Agriculture, natural resource first Governing Body included the entire management, and the environment; and Cabinet of economics ministers and • Poverty, human development, equity, the leading lights of the private sector, gender, and consumer behaviour. -
Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Federal Reserve Nominees 5.15.2018
Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Federal Reserve Nominees 5.15.2018 On May 15th, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to consider the following nominations: The Honorable Richard Clarida, of Connecticut, to be a Member and Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Ms. Michelle Bowman, of Kansas, to be a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Key Takeaways Both nominees expressed support for the tailoring of financial regulation to the size and complexity of the institution, but highlighted the need to continue to ensure safety and soundness in the financial system. Both nominees expressed support for the continued normalization of the Fed’s balance sheet. Democratic Members asked nominees about recent Federal Reserve proposals that would adjust capital standards. The following themes consistently emerged throughout the hearing: Tailoring of regulations o Chairman Crapo (R-ID) asked the nominees their thoughts on tailoring regulations to the size and complexity of individual institutions. Clarida said that tailoring and efficiency of regulations are important goals while at the same time continuing to ensure the safety and soundness of the financial system. Bowman highlighted the need to apply the appropriate amount of regulation depending on size and complexity of the institution. o Senator Tillis (R-NC) asked witnesses about whether S.2155 was an appropriate way to tailor regulations. Bowman discussed the importance of tailoring regulations but did not specifically discuss 2155. Fed balance sheet / Quantitative Easing o Chairman Crapo (R-ID) asked the nominees about normalization of the Fed balance sheet. Clarida said that Fed Chairman Powell’s recent proposal seems to make sense, but he has not studied the numbers in detail yet. -
Weekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary December 10, 2012 Festive Fed FAQ John Canally, CFA Why Write About the Federal Reserve (Fed) This Week When the Economist Fiscal Cliff Is Looming? LPL Financial The Fed may deliver the most important policy announcement of the week, given the ongoing behind-the-scenes fiscal policy debate in Washington. The Fed continues to play a key role in markets and the economy, and that Highlights will continue into 2013 and beyond. Although Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to has said that the Fed cannot offset the impact of the fiscal cliff, Fed continue Operation Twist at this week’s policymakers are keenly aware that they remain the “only game in town” Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) when it comes to simulative policy. meeting. Before ending quantitative easing (QE), the Fed has repeatedly said it is looking What Is the Schedule of Events for the Fed This Week? for “sustained and substantial” improvement in the labor market. The Fed holds its eighth and final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2012 this Tuesday and Wednesday, December 11 – 12. The The Fed’s communication policy is likely to be at the heart of the agenda. meeting will be followed by an FOMC statement at 12:30 PM ET, the FOMC’s latest economic and Fed funds projections at 2:00 PM ET, and Looking ahead, the rotation to new FOMC members in January 2013 is unlikely to Chairman Bernanke’s final press conference of 2012 begins at 2:15 PM ET. -
Strategies Monetary Policy
STRATEGIES for MONETARY POLICY EDITED BY JOHN H. COCHRANE JOHN B. TAYLOR CHAPTER ONE Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy Richard H. Clarida The topic of this volume and the Monetary Policy Conference it originates from, Strategies for Monetary Policy, is especially timely. The Federal Reserve System is conducting a review of the strategy, tools, and communication practices we deploy to pursue our dual- mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. In this review, we expect to benefit from the insights and perspectives that are presented here, as well as those offered at other conferences devoted to this topic, as we assess possible practical ways in which we might refine our existing monetary policy framework to better achieve our dual-mandate goals on a sustained basis. This essay is not, however, devoted to a broad review of the Fed’s monetary policy framework—that process is ongoing, and I would not want to prejudge the outcome—but it will instead focus on some of the important ways in which economic models and financial market signals help me think about conducting monetary policy in practice after a career of thinking about it in theory. THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY Let me set the scene with a very brief—and certainly selective— review of the evolution over the past several decades of professional The views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of other Federal Reserve Board members or Federal Open Market Committee participants. I would like to thank Ed Nelson and Bob Tetlow for their assistance in preparing this speech. -
Between a Rock and a Hard Place: the CRA—Safety and Soundness Pinch
The rising costs of complying with super- visory demands have brought the issue of regu- Between a Rock latory burden to the attention of both law- makers and bank regulators. But one relatively underappreciated aspect of regulatory burden is and a Hard Place: the potential for the supervisory process to impose conflicting demands on banks. In October 1977, Congress passed the The CRA—Safety and Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) as Title VIII of the Housing and Community Development Act. The legislation was designed to encourage Soundness Pinch commercial banks and thrifts to help meet the credit needs of their communities, including low- Jeffery W. Gunther and moderate-income neighborhoods, in a manner consistent with safe and sound banking prac- tices. In 1989, the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act established four possible composite CRA ratings: 1—outstanding; 2—satisfactory; 3—needs to improve; and 4— substantial noncompliance. Federal agencies anking entails risk, historically considered twelve factors in decid- B ing how well financial institutions were meeting but can regulators the goals of the CRA (see Garwood and Smith 1993). Revised regulations announced in April decide how much 1995 replaced these factors with three tests—of lending, investment, and service—with the risk is appropriate? lending test receiving the most weight.1 Examiners have always focused on lend- ing activity in determining a bank’s CRA rating. The revised CRA rules reflect this focus, as it is difficult for a bank to receive an overall satis- factory rating unless its lending performance is satisfactory. In rating CRA compliance, regula- tors assess such factors as a bank’s overall lend- ing activity in its market area and the degree to which the bank provides credit throughout its market, with particular emphasis on low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and individu- als as well as small businesses and farms. -
THE RIDE Larger, Less Crowded Areas Seeing Faster Growth
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY / SPRING 2019 ENJOYING THE RIDE Larger, less crowded areas seeing faster growth ANNUAL REPORT EDITION Stability and Stewardship Why Is Wage Growth Low? | Diversity and Inclusion Report | New Tenth District Directors TEN MAGAZINE | | SPRING 2019 A FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY / SPRING 2019 FEATURES VOLUME 14 • ISSUE 4 • ISSN 1554-7469 SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT Diane Raley VICE PRESIDENT Krissy Young ASSISTANT VICE PRESIDENT & PRODUCTION ADVISOR Lowell Jones 20 ASSISTANT VICE PRESIDENT & FASTER GROWTH Year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted PUBLIC INFORMATION OFFICER Over several years, locations with populations of 500,000 Bill Medley6 to 3 million often grew faster than the national6 rate. EDITOR4 4 Stan Austin MAGAZINE2 DESIGNER 2 Alison Reichert 0 WHY IS WAGE GROWTH0 SO LOW? MANAGING EDITOR Despite continued improvement Rick Babson-2 in labor market -conditions,2 low productivity growth affects CREATIVE DIRECTOR compensation. Angela -Anderson4 12 -4 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 CONTENT CONTRIBUTORS Real compensation per hour Su Bacon, Gary Barber, Sam Chapman, Cynthia Edwards, David McNeese, Sarah Pope, Marlina Yates DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION In its yearly report to Congress, the RESEARCH CONTRIBUTORS Kansas City Fed outlines how its Jun Nie, Jordan Rappaport, business practices represent the range Willem Van Zandweghe of backgrounds and experiences 30 across the Tenth District. TEN magazine is a quarterly publication of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City focused on the connection between the Bank’s research and the Tenth Federal Reserve District. TEN features articles on the Federal Reserve’s history, structure and operations. The views and opinions expressed in TEN are not 2018 ANNUAL REPORT necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank A detailed look at Bank operations, of Kansas City, the Federal Reserve System, its Tenth District officers, directors, advisory governors, officers or representatives.