Commercial Real Estate Grapples with Going Green in Recession
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Views on the Economy and Price-Level Targeting
Views on the Economy and Price-Level Targeting Raphael Bostic President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Atlanta Economics Club Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Atlanta, Georgia May 21, 2018 • Atlanta Fed president and CEO Raphael Bostic speaks at the Atlanta Economics Club’s luncheon about the economy, his economic outlook, and the Fed’s inflation target. • Bostic: The economy is arguably as close to the Fed's employment and inflation goals as it's been over this expansion. • Bostic continues to see the economy growing above potential this year, around 2 1/2 percent, and slowing to its longer-run growth rate of around 1 3/4 percent over the medium term. • Bostic notes that an upside risk to his economic outlook is the prospect for capital spending given tax reform, while a downside risk is the uncertainty about changes in trade policy. • Bostic asks if the current monetary policy framework is still the right one, noting that once monetary policy has normalized, the federal funds rate will settle at a level significantly below historical norms. • Bostic explains that if the real rate of interest is likely to remain low, then giving the Fed enough room to fight even run-of-the-mill economic downturns requires boosting the nominal rate of interest. • To increase the nominal rate, Bostic is drawn to a monetary policy framework that has a version of price-level targeting. • Bostic believes a sound policy framework provides a credible nominal anchor while maintaining flexibility to address changing circumstances, and flexible price-level targeting can be a part of such a framework. -
IFFCBANO Symposium: Keeping Trade Moving
IFFCBANO Symposium: Keeping Trade Moving Adrienne C. Slack Regional Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - New Orleans Branch The views expressed here are my own, and not necessarily those of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve System. The Fed’s Dual Mandate • The Fed is pursuing two objectives as given to us by Congress— maximum employment and price stability. • The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the job market, although a stronger economy does help with job creation. • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has chosen an inflation target of two percent per year over the medium term as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. 2 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Randal Quarles Jerome H. Powell Richard H. Clarida Lael Brainard Vice Chair for Chair Vice Chair Supervision Vacant Michelle W. Bowman Vacant 3 The Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Loretta Mester Charles Evans Neel Kashkari Patrick Harker Eric Rosengren Cleveland Chicago Minneapolis Philadelphia Boston 4th District 7th District 9th District 3rd District 1st District John Williams New York 2nd District Tom Barkin Richmond 5th District Mary Daly San Francisco Esther George Raphael Bostic Robert Kaplan James Bullard 12th District Kansas City Atlanta 10th District Dallas St. Louis 6th District 11th District 8th District 4 The Sixth District Information Flow Public Sixth Policy District Business Sixth FOMC District Research Sixth Atlanta District Board of President Directors 6 Summary of the Economic Environment: The May 2019 FOMC Policy Statement • Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity rose at a solid rate. -
The Fed in the Changing Room
ECONOMIC POLICY NOTE 16/10/2017 The Fed in the changing room AGNIESZKA GEHRINGER President Trump will soon nominate new members to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and the Federal Open Market Committee. The new nomination could lead to a change in the Fed’s approach to monetary policy. Consistency and predictability are not the strengths of this US president. Hence, his appointments may well induce some market volatility. The US Federal Reserve is in a changing room. campaign has not been heard since. The Three out of seven positions on its Board of president has even turned to “like low rates”.1 Governors are vacant. Moreover, the term of This leaves a good chance for a candidate Janet Yellen chairing the Board and thus the promising a continuation of the cautious Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy course under Janet Yellen. But expires on January 31, 2018. President Donald other options remain on the cards. Trump could grasp the opportunity to shape the US monetary policy in the foreseeable future How might the FOMC change in 2018? and nominate candidates – both for the Board The FOMC consists of twelve members: seven of Governors and among them for the FOMC- members of the Board of Governors of the chair – who best suit his policy preferences. Federal Reserve System; the president of the There are some uncertainties in the process. Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of Most importantly, it is difficult to figure out the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, which exact policy priorities would drive the who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.2 president’s choice. -
Blanchard and Summers 1984 for the U.K., Germany and France; See Buiter 1985 for a More De- Tailed Study of U.K
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1 Volume Author/Editor: Stanley Fischer, editor Volume Publisher: MIT Press Volume ISBN: 0-262-06105-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/fisc86-1 Publication Date: 1986 Chapter Title: Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem Chapter Author: Olivier J. Blanchard, Lawrence H. Summers Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4245 Chapter pages in book: (p. 15 - 90) — Olivier I. Blanchard andLawrenceH. Summers MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND NBER, HARVARD UNWERSITY AND NBER Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem After twenty years of negligible unemployment, most of Western Europe has since the early 1970s suffered a protracted period of high and ris- ing unemployment. In the United Kingdom unemployment peaked at 3.3 percent over the period 1945—1970, but has risen almost continu- ously since 1970, and now stands at over 12 percent. For the Common Market nations as a whole, the unemployment rate more than doubled between 1970 and 1980 and has doubled again since then. Few forecasts call for a significant decline in unemployment over the next several years, and none call for its return to levels close to those that prevailed in the 1950s and 1960s. These events are not easily accounted for by conventional classical or Keynesian macroeconomic theories. Rigidities associated with fixed- length contracts, or the costs of adjusting prices or quantities, are un- likely to be large enough to account for rising unemployment over periods of a decade or more. -
Who Should Be the Next Fed Chairman?
A SYMPOSIUM OF VIEWS THE MAGAZINE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY 888 16th Street, N.W. Suite 740 Washington, D.C. 20006 Phone: 202-861-0791 Fax: 202-861-0790 www.international-economy.com [email protected] Who Should Over the next several years, commentators will speculate Be the on the identity of the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors once Alan Greenspan’s Next Fed tenure ends in 2006. Instead of speculation centered on who is likely to be next, per- haps the initial question should relate to who should Chairman? assume the post many describe today as “central banker to the world”? 44 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY FALL 2004 TIE ASKED DOZENS OF EXPERTS Among those mentioned as possible replacements:* Bob Rubin Martin Feldstein Larry Summers Ben Bernanke William McDonough Joseph Stiglitz Lawrence B. Lindsey Robert McTeer Janet Yellen Glen Hubbard David Malpass Robert Barro Ian Macfarlane Bill Gross *Note: Selections made prior to November 2 U.S. presidential election. FALL 2004 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 45 BARNEY FRANK Member, U.S. House of Representatives, and senior GEORGE SOROS Democrat on the Financial Chairman, Soros Fund Services Committee Management f John Kerry is elected President, I will urge strongly Bob Rubin is by far the most qualified. the appointment of Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz Ito chair the Fed. That position has become the single most influential office affecting national economic pol- icy, and Stiglitz’s commitment to and understanding of the importance of combining economic growth with a concern for economic fairness are sorely needed. Given the increasing role that globalization plays, his interna- tional experience is also a great asset. -
Between a Rock and a Hard Place: the CRA—Safety and Soundness Pinch
The rising costs of complying with super- visory demands have brought the issue of regu- Between a Rock latory burden to the attention of both law- makers and bank regulators. But one relatively underappreciated aspect of regulatory burden is and a Hard Place: the potential for the supervisory process to impose conflicting demands on banks. In October 1977, Congress passed the The CRA—Safety and Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) as Title VIII of the Housing and Community Development Act. The legislation was designed to encourage Soundness Pinch commercial banks and thrifts to help meet the credit needs of their communities, including low- Jeffery W. Gunther and moderate-income neighborhoods, in a manner consistent with safe and sound banking prac- tices. In 1989, the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act established four possible composite CRA ratings: 1—outstanding; 2—satisfactory; 3—needs to improve; and 4— substantial noncompliance. Federal agencies anking entails risk, historically considered twelve factors in decid- B ing how well financial institutions were meeting but can regulators the goals of the CRA (see Garwood and Smith 1993). Revised regulations announced in April decide how much 1995 replaced these factors with three tests—of lending, investment, and service—with the risk is appropriate? lending test receiving the most weight.1 Examiners have always focused on lend- ing activity in determining a bank’s CRA rating. The revised CRA rules reflect this focus, as it is difficult for a bank to receive an overall satis- factory rating unless its lending performance is satisfactory. In rating CRA compliance, regula- tors assess such factors as a bank’s overall lend- ing activity in its market area and the degree to which the bank provides credit throughout its market, with particular emphasis on low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and individu- als as well as small businesses and farms. -
Meeting Minutes
DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PRESIDENT’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY ADVISORY BOARD NOVEMBER 2, 2009 MEETING The meeting was convened at the White House pursuant to notice at 11:24 AM (EST). WHITE HOUSE ATTENDEES Barack Obama, President of the United States Rahm Emanuel, Chief of Staff Valerie Jarrett, Senior Advisor and Assistant to the President Lawrence Summers, Director, National Economic Council Carol Browner, Assistant to the President Austan Goolsbee, Staff Director and Chief Economist Jen Psaki, Deputy Press Secretary Adam Hitchcock, Office of the Chief of Staff ADVISORY BOARD MEMBERS PRESENT Paul Volcker, Chairman Anna Burger, Chair, Change to Win John Doerr, Partner, Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers William H. Donaldson, Former Chairman, SEC Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., President & CEO, TIAA-CREF Mark T. Gallogly, Founder & Managing Partner, Centerbridge Partners L.P. Jeff Immelt, Chairman & CEO, GE Monica C. Lozano, Publisher & Chief Executive Officer, La Opinion Charles E. Phillips, Jr., President, Oracle Corporation Penny Pritzker, Chairman & Founder, Pritzker Realty Group David F. Swensen, Chief Investment Officer, Yale University Richard L. Trumka, President, AFL-CIO Robert Wolf, Chairman & CEO, UBS Group Americas DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY ATTENDEES Timothy F. Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury Emanuel A. Pleitez, Designated Federal Officer The President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board (PERAB) held a meeting with the President to discuss long-term, innovation based ideas to sustain growth and continue to create jobs of the future at 11:24 AM (EST) on November 2, 2009 in the Roosevelt Room of the White House. In accordance with provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act, Public Law 92-463, and Federal Committee Management Regulations, 41 C.F.R. -
Minutes of the Second Meeting of the 2004-2005 ASA Council
Minutes of the Second Meeting of the 2004-2005 ASA Council February 5-6, 2005 The Churchill Hotel Washington, DC Council Members Present: Rebecca Adams, Kathleen Blee, Michael Burawoy, Esther Ngan-ling Chow, Troy Duster, Cynthia Fuchs Epstein, Jennifer Glass, Deborah King, Rhonda Levine, Nan Lin, Ann Shola Orloff, Caroline Hodges Persell, Bernice Pescosolido, Lynn Smith-Lovin, Diane Vaughan, Bruce Western, Franklin Wilson, Min Zhou. Council Members Absent: Eduardo Bonilla-Silva. Staff Present: Janet Astner, Les Briggs (Saturday), Karen Edwards (Saturday), Lee Herring, Sally Hillsman, Carla Howery, Michael Murphy, Mercedes Rubio (Sunday), Roberta Spalter-Roth (Sunday). 1. Call to Order ASA President Troy Duster called the winter meeting of the 2004-2005 Council to order at 8:36 am in the Kalorama East Room of the Churchill Hotel in Washington, DC. Following introductions of all members and staff present, Duster outlined the overall plans for the meeting. Council members had met the previous evening for dinner. Following dinner, Bernice Pescosolido led Council in an informal discussion on the selection process for editors of ASA journals. A. Approval of Agenda Duster presented the proposed agenda for the meeting and invited amendments. Hearing no requests to move, add, or delete items, he called for acceptance of the agenda as presented. Council voted unanimously to approve the proposed agenda for the February 5-6 meeting. B. Approval of Minutes Minutes of the August 17, 2004 and August 18, 2004 Council meetings were presented for approval. Rebecca Adams noted that she had attended the August 17th meeting as an observer and asked that her name be added to the attendance list for that meeting. -
The Curious Relationship
Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-76729-3 - Why NATO Endures Wallace J. Thies Excerpt More information 1 The Curious Relationship A curious relationship has developed within the Atlantic Alliance, also known as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), since its inception in 1949. NATO is widely regarded as the most successful alliance ever, and statesmen on 1 both sides of the Atlantic have lavished praise upon it. They also complain incessantly about its shortcomings, most of which they blame on their counter- parts across the sea. These complaints have not gone unnoticed by observers in the press and academia, who have been quick to pronounce the Alliance ‘‘in crisis,’’ or even on the brink of collapse. Looking back over the history of the Alliance, there seems to have been scarcely a year when it was not widely said to 2 be in crisis, or at least in disarray. Is it really the case that NATO is perpetually on the brink of collapse? Claims that NATO is in crisis have been frequent in no small part because the idea of a crisis is a useful one for insiders and outsiders alike. For insiders, warning of an actual or impending crisis is the rhetorical equivalent of a shot across the bow – a way of serving notice that trouble is brewing and something should be done about it forthwith. For outsiders, a crisis in the Alliance is the rhetorical equiv- alent of an alarm bell – a way of dramatizing a problem that might otherwise be dismissed as unworthy of space on a prestigious op-ed page or in a scholarly journal. -
Rebuilding the Research Capacity at Hud
Institute of Fisher Center for Business and Real Estate and Economic Research Urban Economics PROGRAM ON HOUSING AND URBAN POLICY WORKING PAPER SERIES PROFESSIONAL REPORT NO. P10-001 REBUILDING THE RESEARCH CAPACITY AT HUD By The Committee to Evaluate The Research Plan of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, of the National Research Council 2008 These papers are preliminary in nature: their purpose is to stimulate discussion and comment. Therefore, they are not to be cited or quoted in any publication without the express permission of the author. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY Rebuilding the Research Capacity at HUD Committee to Evaluate the Research Plan of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, National Research Council ISBN: 0-309-12568-5, 236 pages, 6 x 9, (2008) This free PDF was downloaded from: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12468.html Visit the National Academies Press online, the authoritative source for all books from the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council: ! Download hundreds of free books in PDF ! Read thousands of books online, free ! Sign up to be notified when new books are published ! Purchase printed books ! Purchase PDFs ! Explore with our innovative research tools Thank you for downloading this free PDF. If you have comments, questions or just want more information about the books published by the National Academies Press, you may contact our customer service department toll-free at 888-624-8373, visit us online, or send an email to [email protected]. This free book plus thousands more books are available at http://www.nap.edu. -
1 the Brookings Institution Washington Court Hotel
TAXES-2012/05/3 1 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION WASHINGTON COURT HOTEL ECONOMIC FACTS ABOUT TAXES: RATES, REVENUES, AND REFORM OPTIONS A HAMILTON PROJECT POLICY DISCUSSION Washington, D.C. Thursday, May 3, 2012 ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TAXES-2012/05/3 2 PARTICIPANTS: Welcome and Introductions: ROBERT E. RUBIN Co-Chair, Council on Foreign Relations Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Overview of “A Dozen Facts About Tax Reform”: ADAM LOONEY Senior Fellow and Policy Director, The Hamilton Project The Brookings Institution Panel 1: The Economic Case for Tax Reform: Moderator: ZANNY MINTON-BEDDOES Economics Editor The Economist Panelists: MARTIN FELDSTEIN Professor of Economics, Harvard University President Emeritus, National Bureau of Economic Research Former Chair, President’s Council of Economic Advisers LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University Former Assistant to the President for Economic Policy Former U.S. Treasury Secretary ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TAXES-2012/05/3 3 PARTICIPANTS (CONT’D): Panel 2: Key Principles for a Successful Reform Effort: Moderator: MICHAEL GREENSTONE Senior Fellow and Director, The Hamilton Project The Brookings Institution Panelists: JOHN PODESTA Chair and Counselor Center for American Progress JAMES POTERBA President and Chief Executive Officer, National Bureau of Economic Research Professor of Economics, MIT ALICE RIVLIN Senior Fellow The Brookings Institution The Honorable John Engler President, Business Roundtable Former Government of Michigan * * * * * ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TAXES-2012/05/3 4 P R O C E E D I N G S P R O C E E D I N G S MR. -
Fed's Bostic Says Temporary Disruptions Could 'Become Permanent'
Fed’s Bostic says temporary disruptions could ‘become permanent’ By Lynne Funk Published September 23, 2020, 3:38 p.m. EDT The U.S. economy’s recovery from the virus-induced recession will get much harder, with more permanent job losses unless there’s additional fiscal support, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said. “I am going to keep talking about this because I think this is important,” Bostic said in a virtual speech to the Hale County, Alabama, Chamber of Commerce. “I am hopeful that policy makers in Washington as well as at the state level find creative ways to get that support out there.” Bostic’s comments echoed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who told Congress today that there was a need for additional fiscal aid with some of the $3 trillion in support programs expired while the economy has been coming back from the biggest downturn since the 1930s. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic. Bloomberg News “Right now this is the issue,” Bostic said. “With relief running out there is a pretty significant chance that some of the temporary disruption and dislocation can become permanent. That just means the hurdle that we have to climb is going to be that much higher.” The Atlanta Fed president said that low-income workers and poorer communities have been hurt disproportionately by the crisis, which has eliminated many lower- paying service jobs at restaurants, hotels and tourism attractions. Orlando and New Orleans are two cities in the Atlanta Fed district particularly hard hit, and will take longer to recover than other areas, he said.