University of California, Irvine Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences
2018– 2019 Annual Report
Table of Contents
DIRECTOR’S MESSAGE ...... 3 I. ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION ...... 6 A. Administration ...... 6 B. Executive Committee 2018-19 ...... 6 II. RESEARCH ...... 6 A. Current Research Programs ...... 6 B. Publications ...... 7 C. Public Talks and Colloquia ...... 8 D. Summaries of Research Findings ...... 8 III. IMBS FACULTY RESEARCH SEMINARS AND LABORATORIES ...... 24 A. Research Seminars ...... 24 B. Research Laboratories ...... 25 IV. GRADUATE TRAINING ...... 26 A. Ph.D. Students ...... 26 B. Graduate Activities ...... 26 C. Friday Research Presentations ...... 27 D. Duncan Luce Graduate Student Conference ...... 29 E. 2019 Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award ...... 31 V. COMMUNICATION ...... 31 A. IMBS Conferences ...... 31 B. Conferences/Seminars Organized By IMBS Members ...... 34 C. IMBS Colloquium Series ...... 35 VI. BUDGET ...... 39 A. Appropriations and Expenditures ...... 39 B. Extramural Funding Activity ...... 40 C. CURRENT FACULTY MEMBERS ...... 44 D. SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS ...... 52 E. TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES ...... 68 F. FACULTY PRESENTATIONS ...... 69 G. FACULTY AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTS ...... 83 H. FACULTY ADVISING ...... 87
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DIRECTOR’S MESSAGE
Dear Vice Chancellor Khargonekar, Dean Maurer, IMBS Colleagues, and others,
This has been an exciting year spent expanding the scope of the IMBS, including forging connections with theoretical computer science and biologists and anthropologists working on cultural evolution, as well as laying the foundations for the next generation of research at the IMBS.
The IMBS is a unique institution dedicated to solving important problems in the social and behavioral sciences through the creative application of mathematics. New problems arise all the time and the task of the institute is to identify them, bring together scholars that can contribute to these problems, and coordinate research activity and collaboration. The IMBS continues to represent the power of the social sciences in contributing to cross-disciplinary research on campus. Our members alone come from at least five UCI schools.
Our activities in the 2018-2019 academic year, reviewed in this annual report, display the scope, creativity and importance of the work done through the IMBS. It will be evident that the cross-disciplinary nature of the work, typically not well supported by the departmental system, creates spillovers for departments and programs across UCI.
Overview. This year the IMBS held two major conferences, as well as the Luce graduate student conference, 21 colloquia, 16 seminars, added 5 new members, and led the search for a new Falmagne Chair and IMBS director. IMBS members held $22,921,282 of active grants during the year. We have also forged connections with theoretical computer science, hosting seminars by Vijay Vazirani (ICS, UCI), Nicole Immorlica (Microsoft Research), and Sid Banerjee (Cornell), as well as co-organizing talks with the Algorithms, Combinatorics and Optimization (ACO) Center in ICS. We continue to search for the third Falmagne chair, made possible by the generous gift by Dina and Jean-Claude Falmagne.
Active Research Fields. The work done by IMBS members is at the forefront of a large number of emerging and rapidly evolving fields. Reviewed in Section II.D, this work includes veridicality in human and artificial cognition (Zyg Pizlo), mathematical analyses of the spread of false beliefs (Cailin O’Connor and James Weatherall), color cognition (Kimberly Jameson, Natalia Komarova, and Kim Romney), natural language acquisition (Lisa Pearl, Gregory Scontras and Richard Futrell), cancer and virus dynamics (Natalia Komarova), the evolution of social networks (Carter Butts), identity-based inequality (Cailin O’Connor and Jean-Paul Carvalho), identity formation and extremism (Stergios Skaperdas, Mike McBride and Jean-Paul Carvalho), control theory applied to biological systems (Steve Frank), spatial risk analysis (Robin Keller), game decomposition (Don Saari), evolution and learning in games (Brian Skyrms, Simon Huttegger and Louis Narens), algorithmic game theory (Vijay Vazirani), train arrival times (Tom Trogdon), and behavioral biases in decision-making (Igor Kopylov).
Conferences. The IMBS hosted two major conferences during the year. Further details are contained in Section V.
The first conference, titled ‘Formal Modeling and Analysis of Color Categorization; Innovations and Insights Since Berlin and Kay (1969)’, was held on 2-3 November 2018. It was expertly organized by Kimberly Jameson. Speakers were drawn from a highly interdisciplinary group of top-tier modelers and researchers actively working in the area of color naming, categorization, and evolution, representing a 3
variety of disciplines including Anthropology, Linguistics, Computer Science, Cognitive Science, Physics, Robotics, and Logic and Philosophy of Science. UC Irvine, and the IMBS in particular, is at the international center of the study of color categorization. This conference showcased the work going on at UC Irvine, in particular the work of the outstanding mathematicians and cognitive scientists Kimberly Jameson (IMBS), Natalia Komarova (Math, UCI), Nicole Fider (Math, UCI), Kirbi Joe (IMBS), and Maryam Gooyabadi (IMBS). The field originated with the work of Brent Berlin and Paul Kay in 1969. Paul Kay gave the opening talk at the conference. From there, the audience could see the evolution of the field over time and the significant contributions made to it at UCI.
The second conference, titled ‘Cultural Evolution and Social Norms’, was held on 22-23 March 2019. There is a remarkable convergence occurring between economics, anthropology, and evolutionary biology in modeling human behavior and institutional change as the product of cultural evolution. This process of cultural evolution includes the intergenerational accumulation of knowledge, the cultural transmission of beliefs and preferences, and the evolution of social norms. Cultural evolution was first studied by evolutionary biologists and ecologists and has more recently gained prominence in economics. This conference brought together leading economists, evolutionary biologists, ecologists, anthropologists, and philosophers to take stock of recent developments in modeling cultural evolution and identify new directions for research. Topics include the emergence of cultural diversity, family structure, consumption norms, economic underrepresentation, and the political economy of cultural movements. Speakers included David Hirshleifer (Finance, UCI), Myrna Wooders (Econ, Vanderbilt), Alberto Bisin (Economics, NYU), Rob Boyd (Anthropology, ASU), Nicole Creanza (Biology, Vanderbilt), Elena Miu (Anthropology, ASU), Natalia Komarova (Math, UCI), Erol Akcay (Biology, U Penn), and Larry Iannaccone (Econ, Chapman).
Graduate Training. The PhD program with a concentration in Mathematical Behavioral Sciences had nine students this year. IMBS graduate training activities are set out in section IV. Initiatives were made to closely involve students in the Institute’s activities. In particular, I held fortnightly meetings with students interested in game theory and social dynamics. As usual, students ran and mostly presented in the Friday IMBS lunchtime seminar. The Luce Graduate Student Conference was held on 31 May 2019 and featured eleven outstanding presentations by PhD students. Finally, the Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award was won by Santiago Guisasola, who has gone on to a postdoctoral research position at the prestigious Instituto National de Matemática Pura e Aplicada (IMPA) in Brazil.
Many of the students participating in IMBS events were from outside the MBS program, from departments as diverse as mathematics, logic & philosophy of science, computer science, language science, economics, political science and cognitive science. This provides some idea of the spillovers generated by the interdisciplinary work nurtured by the IMBS.
Grants. IMBS members held $22,921,282 of active grants during the year. Most of these funds ran through the members’ departments, as we have no incentive to have grants go through the IMBS (as we see none of the overhead credited to us). Were this to change, we would have incentive to encourage members to run grants through the IMBS and would make a vigorous push in this direction.
Challenges. The IMBS has had many illustrious members beginning with its Founding Director, Duncan Luce. Today, our membership includes 7 National Academy Members (six from UCI and one from another university). The present challenge is twofold. First, the IMBS is redefining the set of problems it is working on, planning to coordinate activity around new problems, and raise awareness for its next generation of work. Second, we are bringing together a new generation of talented and truly 4
interdisciplinary scholars applying mathematics to the social and behavioral sciences. They include Lisa Pearl (Professor and Chair, Language Science), Igor Kopylov (Associate Professor, Economics), Joachim Vandekerckhove (Professor, Cognitive Sciences), Cailin O’Connor (Associate Professor, Logic & Philosophy of Science), Ines Levin (Assistant Professor, Political Science), Gregory Scontras (Assistant Professor, Language Science), and Richard Futrell (Assistant Professor, Language Science). Our aim is to make the IMBS an intellectual home for them.
During the year, Stephan Jagau joined the IMBS as a postdoctoral researcher from the University of Amsterdam. Stephan’s fields are psychological and evolutionary game theory and he is contributing significantly to IMBS activities in these areas. We also added three new IMBS members this year.
I served as Interim Director from 2017-2019, following Don Saari’s retirement after 14 illustrious years as Director. Zygmunt Pizlo has now taken over as Interim Director and is in charge of a crucial phase in the transition process with a new Falmagne Chair being hired through the IMBS and preparation for the sunset review taking place. Holding doctoral degrees in both engineering and cognitive sciences, he is uniquely qualified to lead the next generation of work at the IMBS. Among other things, Zyg applies mathematical principles drawn from human cognition to artificial intelligence. His work is an outstanding example of how the social sciences can contribute to other disciplines, including engineering and computer science.
Finally, Joanna Kerner, the IMBS Administrator, has powered the institute for six years and is the reason we have been able to accomplish so much. She deserves our unreserved gratitude and praise. Joanna is retiring this month and we wish her all the very best for a bright and happy future. I would like to personally thank Joanna for making my time as Interim Director so smooth and enjoyable.
We look forward to another exciting and productive academic year.
Sincerely,
Jean-Paul Carvalho Interim Director, IMBS, 2017-2019
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I. ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION
A. Administration
The Interim Director of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences is Associate Professor Jean-Paul Carvalho. He reports both to the Dean of the School of Social Sciences and to the Vice-Chancellor for Research. An Executive Committee for consultation and decision- making regarding the long-term direction of the Institute assists the Director, (section B below).
The staff of the Director’s office consists of one Administrator, Joanna Kerner. Presently, some bookkeeping and personnel matters are being taken care of by the School of Social Sciences.
Interim Director Jean-Paul Carvalho, 2017- 2019
Previous Directors: Donald G. Saari, 2003-2017, William H. Batchelder, 1999-2003 R. Duncan Luce, Founding Director, 1989-1998
Graduate Director: Louis Narens Administrator: Joanna Kerner
B. Executive Committee 2018-19
Carter Butts, Professor of Sociology John Duffy, Professor of Economics Larry Iannaccone, Professor of Economics, Chapman University Zyg Pizlo, Professor of Cognitive Sciences Brian Skyrms, Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science Hongkai Zhao, Professor of Mathematics
II. RESEARCH
A. Current Research Programs
There are 71 members of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences (IMBS) and their research interests are listed in Appendix A.
The IMBS is roughly partitioned into five research clusters. These are listed below and should be considered as informal intellectual groupings, rather than formal structures.
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Measurement Theory, Foundational Issues, and Scaling Models: Barrett, Burton, Falmagne, Maddy, Narens, Romney, Skyrms, and Weatherall
Statistical Modeling: Cognitive: Baldi, Dosher, Eppstein, Falmagne, Iverson, Lee, Pearl, Romney, Scontras, Smyth, Steyvers, Trogdon, and Yellott Economic: Brownstone, Poirier, and Saari Sociological/Anthropological: Boyd, Butts, Faust, and White
Individual Decision Making: Birnbaum, Keller, Kopylov, Machina, Narens, and Saari
Perceptions and Psychophysics: Vision: Braunstein, Chubb, D’Zmura, Hoffman, Iverson, Jameson, Palais, Pizlo, Romney, Sperling, Srinivasan, Wright, Xin, Yellott, and Zhao Psychophysics and Response Times: Brownstone, Falmagne, Iverson, Jameson, Narens, and Yellott
Social and Economic Phenomena: Economics and Game Theory: Branch, Brownstone, Brueckner, Burton, Carvalho, Duffy, Frank, Garfinkel, Komarova, Kopylov, Levin, McBride, O’Connor, Poirier, Saari, Skaperdas, Skyrms, and Vazirani. Public Choice: Carvalho, Cohen, Glazer, Grofman, Kaminski, Keller, Taagepera, and Uhlaner Social Networks: Boyd, Butts, Faust, Noymer, Romney, Vazirani, and White Social Dynamics and Evolution: Butts, Carvalho, Frank, Huttegger, Narens, Romney, Saari, Skyrms, Smyth, Stern, and White
B. Publications
The members who have replied report a total of 144 journal publications (published or in press) for the current academic year. These are listed in Appendix B.
The IMBS has a technical report series that is available to all members and qualified graduate students who are submitting a paper to a refereed journal or book. The series editor is Jean-Paul Carvalho. Appendix C lists the technical reports issued during the academic year. Technical reports since 1993 can be found under “printed resources” on the Institute’s web site at http://www.imbs.uci.edu/research/technical.php.
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C. Public Talks and Colloquia
IMBS members actively participated in numerous off-campus research seminars and conferences. The members who replied gave a total of 143 talks listed in Appendix D. Their awards and achievements for this year can be found in Appendix E.
D. Summaries of Research Findings
An important aspect of the Institute is the research conclusions developed by its members. What follows is a sample of what has happened this year.
Measurement Theory, Foundational Issues, and Scaling Models
Louis Narens
My research this year consisted primarily of creating and finishing a book, The Pursuit Of Happiness, with IMBS member Brian Skyrms, to be published by Oxford University Press. We are currently preparing the final version of the manuscript for printing. Other research efforts consisted of doing preliminary research for and submitting a $8,000,000 grant proposal to the US Army. It was interdisciplinary consisting of engineers and psychologists. I was one of the 5 PIs; he other 4 were from four other universities. I also supervised an educational project consisting of 8 MDP undergraduates from computer science and engineering who received grants from UCI to conduct research with me. I mentored 3 graduate students on their research projects. I was Graduate Director of the Mathematical Behavioral Sciences PhD Program during the year.
Statistical Modeling
Michael Lee
My research involves the development, evaluation, and application of models of cognition including representation, memory, learning, and decision making, with a special focus on individual differences and collective cognition. Much of my research uses naturally occurring behavioral data, and tries to pursue a solution-oriented approach to empirical science, in which the research questions are generated from real-world problems. My methods involve probabilistic generative modeling, and Bayesian methods of computational analysis.
Lisa Pearl
A related set of findings concerns how the cognitively immature minds of children solve the various tasks involved in native language learning (called language acquisition). Pearl (under review) describes how considerations of language acquisition are intimately related to Poverty of the Stimulus, a problem that concerns the data available to children to learn from, and a problem that’s been at the center of ferocious debate in psychology, linguistics, and philosophy for decades. In Pearl (under review), I synthesize quantitative approaches to addressing Poverty of the 8
Stimulus, and discuss how mathematical modeling allows us to both make our theoretical assumptions about language acquisition concrete and also evaluate proposed solutions to the Poverty of the Stimulus.
Pearl (in press) discusses how computational and mathematical modeling are also invaluable tools for scientists who want to understand the language acquisition strategies that children use for learning language structure, known as syntax. This is because modeling provides a way to concretely realize a theory about a learning strategy, apply that strategy to realistic language data, and see the results of the learning strategy. This approach can be used for a wide range of syntactic phenomena and offers insights that cannot be found by using theoretical or experimental methods alone.
In line with this idea, Pearl (in press) considers how the quantitative techniques used for investigating language acquisition in children learning a single language (that is, monolingual development) can be harnessed to understand the language knowledge of heritage language speakers. Heritage language speakers are bilingual speakers who speak a dominant language (for example, English in the US) as well as a non-dominant language (such as Spanish or Vietnamese) typically spoken by their family or community, who have native level proficiency. Importantly, heritage language speakers don’t have native level proficiency in their heritage language, and the exact nature of the language knowledge they have is hotly debated. Pearl (in press) describes how, the same quantitative techniques used to understand monolingual language knowledge in children can be applied in exactly the same way to uncover heritage language knowledge in heritage language speakers of any age. This opens up a wealth of investigative possibilities that will lead to a deeper understanding of heritage language knowledge.
Pearl (2019) considers how emerging computational techniques involving non-symbolic representations (and the models that use those representations, recursive neural networks (RNNs)) could be used to spur symbolic theory generation. The key is that the non-symbolic representations, being non-symbolic, are extremely difficult for us to interpret symbolically -- but they way we form (and verbalize) theories is itself symbolic. So why should we bother to try doing anything like this with non-symbolic representations? Because non-symbolic representations have recently proven to be extremely effective in natural language processing tasks that involve complex language understanding. Therefore, it’s useful to consider how we could leverage these non-symbolic techniques to better capture linguistic knowledge, development, and use. In Pearl (2019), I propose one way to do this, inspired by evolutionary computation, where the model (here, an RNN) is given some key building blocks and is left to its own devices, with the goal of finding the best answer it can. This approach may well offer symbolic theory makers in language science a useful tool for uncovering new ways of thinking about the shape of linguistic knowledge.
A finding by Pearl & Sprouse (in press) concerns how children integrate different types of information when learning the linguistic behavior of verbs. In particular, verbs differ by the syntactic frames they can be used in and how their arguments are interpreted. For example, while 9
both try and seem can be used in the frame The penguin ___ to climb the hill, only seem can be used in the frame It ___ that the penguin climbed the hill. As another example, both melt and climb can be used in the intransitive frame X ___ (The ice melted, The penguin climbed). However, the interpretation of the subject is different for each verb: in The ice melted, something is happening to the ice; in The penguin climbed, nothing is happening to the penguin — instead the penguin is doing something. Children learn these verb behaviors by inferring abstract classes of verbs, where each verb class has a distinct collection of behaviors. To do this, children draw on both syntactic cues (like syntactic frames) and conceptual cues (like animacy and event roles). By using a Bayesian framework to formally model different theories of how children integrate these information sources to learn verb classes, we were able to articulate the trajectory of learning assumptions children are likely to have from three to five years old. This trajectory suggests there are different timelines for ignoring vs. heeding surface morphology on verbs (like the past tense - ed in English), for a simpler vs. more flexible event role representation, and for not expecting vs. expecting a mapping between that event role representation and syntactic positions like subject, object, and indirect object. From a theoretical standpoint, it suggests that a mapping between event roles and syntactic positions is not present in younger children, and so is less likely to be something built into Universal Grammar (the innate, language-specific knowledge children utilize to learn their native languages so rapidly and so effectively).
In follow-up work, Pearl & Sprouse (under revision) investigate how English children might learn the correct mapping between event roles and syntactic positions by five years old, given the data they encounter. Using a formal quantitative metric that determines an exact threshold when children will make a generalization from noisy data, we find that only certain theories of how children represent event roles will allow the correct generalization to happen. In particular, if children assume fixed event role categories where, for example, category_1 always maps to the highest syntactic position (and so on), the data English children encounter will be far too noisy for them to generalize a mapping. In contrast, if children assume a relative ordering among event roles, where the higher event role present -- whichever one that may happen to be -- maps to a higher syntactic position, the data English children encounter are amenable to generalizing the mapping correctly. This more theoretically-oriented work provides developmental support for a relativized approach to event role representations, rather than an absolute fixed one -- a hotly debated topic within the theoretical linguistics literature.
Bates & Pearl (2019, in prep.) also investigate the development of complex syntactic knowledge, this time considering the impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on the relevant syntactic input. In particular, there are known differences in the quantity and quality of child-directed speech across SES. We investigate wh-dependency constraints, known as syntactic islands, as a concrete case where quantity and quality of high-SES child-directed speech was previously assessed by Pearl & Sprouse (2013). Using quantitative analysis and cognitive modeling to assess low-SES CDS samples, we find that low-SES children’s complex syntactic input, in terms of wh-dependencies, is quantitatively and qualitatively similar to that of high-SES children: the wh-dependencies (i) have similar distributions in the high-SES and low-SES input samples, and (ii) would allow a low- SES child to successfully acquire knowledge of the same syntactic islands that a high-SES child 10
would from high-SES input. Interestingly, at least one key building block for syntactic island knowledge comes from a different source in low-SES children’s input, but is crucially still present. This suggests that the linguistic evidence for more complex syntactic knowledge like syntactic islands, in contrast with more foundational linguistic knowledge, may not differ by SES. Nguyen & Pearl (2019) use corpus analysis and mathematical modeling to investigate how children come to understand the passive construction in English. For example, at three, children can understand “Alex was hugged by Emma” but struggle to correctly understand “Alex was loved by Emma” until age five. Previous work by Ngyuen & Pearl (2018) suggested that the meaning of verbs (called their lexical semantics) likely played a significant role in when children learned the passive for different verbs. Nguyen & Pearl (2019) developed a Bayesian cognitive model which predicted when children would be able to understand the passive of a particular verb, based on a verb’s lexical semantics and the relative frequency of its lexical semantic components in children’s input. This model was evaluated against behavioral data from five-year-old children understanding (or not understanding) the passive for different verbs, and our findings revealed that five-year-olds actually ignore many salient lexical semantic components of a given verb. They focus on a few very subtle components, and use that to determine whether a particular verb is understandable in the passive. This kind of selective attention in children accords with other work in language development, where selective attention is vital for children to navigate through all the available information in their input and pull out just the right pieces.
Forsythe & Pearl (in prep.) use mathematical modeling to help determine what cognitive processes underlie children’s non-adult behavior when interpreting pronouns. For example, children and adults can differ when interpreting her in The girl hugged the waitress before she left (that is, who left? The girl or the waitress?). One reason for this is that there are many different cues available to help interpret pronouns in context, and children may differ from adults in either the representation of these cues or how they’re able to deploy those cue representations in real time. Behavioral work can often show that children and adults differ, but are unable to pinpoint why -- is it because children’s representations differ, or because children can’t deploy the correct representations quickly enough? Using mathematical modeling, Forsythe & Pearl (in prep.) tease apart these options in concrete Bayesian models, and find that children’s non-adult pronoun interpretation is likely caused by not being able to deploy the correct representations in time. This suggests that, as children mature, they gain the cognitive resources to deploy the correct representations quickly enough. Moreover, our results predict that tasks which ease the difficulty of knowledge deployment should allow children to produce more adult-like behavior — and this is a testable prediction.
A finding in the area of natural language processing concerns automatic detection of deception in text across different content domains, such as product reviews, emotionally-charged topics such as the death penalty, and interview questions. Current automatic deception detection approaches tend to rely on cues that are based either on specific lexical items or on linguistically abstract features that are not necessarily motivated by the psychology of deception. Notably, while approaches relying on such features can do well when the content domain is similar for training and testing, they suffer when content changes occur. Vogler & Pearl (in press) investigates new linguistically- 11
defined features that aim to capture specific details, a psychologically-motivated aspect of truthful vs. deceptive language that may be distinctive across content domains. To ascertain the potential utility of these features, we evaluate them on datasets representing a broad sample of deceptive language, using both standard statistical analysis and as part of a deception detection classifier. We find that these linguistically-defined specific detail features are most useful for cross-domain deception detection when the training data differ significantly in content from the test data, and particularly benefit classification accuracy on deceptive documents.
Another finding in natural language processing concerns automatic sentiment analysis; the simplest version of sentiment analysis is to determine whether a text is positive or negative. Negation words -- that is, words like not -- often disrupt state-of-the-art approaches, and most negation-handling strategies don’t take into account the meaning of the content being negated. Yet, words with the same basic sentiment score (such as nice and beautiful, which are perceived as equally positive) can have very different sentiment when negated: not nice is perceived as far more negative than not beautiful. Pearl, Yuen, & Hii (in prep.) consider the specificity of a word or phrase’s meaning; we investigate automatically-extractable heuristics of how specific a word is, such as its frequency of use (less frequent words may be more specific) and how varied the contexts are that it appears in (words that appear in more narrow contexts may be more specific). We find that incorporating meaning specificity into negation handling is beneficial in “hard” cases, where improper negation handling leads to the opposite sentiment (for example, a negative review being labeled as positive). This kind of error is immediately noticeable to humans, and is best handled by our linguistically-informed strategy.
Gregory Scontras (a) Adjective ordering preferences: Speakers have robust preferences for the relative order of adjectives in multi-adjective strings (e.g., big blue box vs. blue big box ). My re- search investigates the factors that predict these preferences and the pressures that deliver them. Previously, I had shown that in English an adjective’s distance from the modified noun is predicted by the adjective’s meaning: less subjective adjectives are preferred closer to the noun. Last year, I documented similar preferences in Tagalog, but failed to find any ordering preferences in Spanish. This year, I have followed up on this finding both empirically and computationally. Empirically, I have documented similar preferences in Arabic and Mandarin, further supporting the cross-linguistic robustness of the subjectivity generalization, and ruling out post-nominal adjectives as a likely source for the absence of preferences in Spanish (Spanish has post-nominal adjectives but no preferences; Arabic has post-nominal adjectives and stable preferences). Computationally, I have simulated simple reference games and evaluated the relative success of subjectivity-based orders. The results demonstrate how subjectivity-based ordering preferences maximizes communicative success, thereby offering an evolutionary perspective on the emergence of these preferences.
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(b) The added informativity of ambiguous utterances: Traditionally, linguists have treated ambiguity as a bug in the communication system, something to be avoided or explained away. More recent research has taken notice of the efficiency ambiguity affords us. This year, I have been working with researchers at the University of Tu¨bingen to explore an additional benefit of using ambiguous language: the extra information we gain from observing how our listeners resolve ambiguity. We propose that language users learn about each other’s private knowledge (from a Bayesian perspective, their priors) by observing how they resolve ambiguity. If language does not do the job of specifying the information necessary for full interpretation, then listeners are left to draw on their private knowledge— opinions, beliefs, and preferences—to fill in the gaps; by observing how listeners fill those gaps in, speakers learn about the private knowledge of their listeners. We have implemented this hypothesis as a computational model within the Bayesian Rational Speech Act modeling framework. We are now testing our hypothesis by using the model to predict behavioral data from naive participants. (c) Modeling language change in aspectual systems: Languages with two markers of imperfective aspect generally feature an imperfective form (e.g., John eats cake) and a progressive form (e.g., John is eating cake). Curiously, these two grammatical forms—imperfective and progressive—are commonly related in the historical development of a lan- guage: languages with a single imperfective marker grammaticalize new progressive markers that ultimately broaden in interpretation and displace the older imperfective. The question that arises is what drives the progressive-to-imperfective shift such that we commonly find it cross-linguistically. I have been working with researchers at Harvard University to develop an information-theoretic answer to this question that we cash out in terms of pragmatic reasoning about shifting utterance costs. Our proposal gets articulated as a computational cognitive model of language understanding, formalized within the Rational Speech Act mod- eling framework. Drawing our inspiration from previous game-theoretic models of the shift, we show how both production behavior (i.e., frequency of use) and comprehension behavior (i.e., the interpretations available) can change as a function of utterance costs. Thus, we show how semantic change may be a function of changes in utterance cost—a reflection of morphological complexity or frequency-of-use—as it relates to pragmatic reasoning about language.
Sociological/Anthropological
Carter Butts
One growing threat to the health of our aging population is the increasing prevalence of diseases brought about by protein aggregation. Proteins are an essential part of our biology, giving structure to our bodies, performing essential chemistry, and even acting as signals and “switches” 13
that allow our cells to process information and react to environmental changes. Sometimes, however, proteins go rogue, folding into non-functional oligomers and larger aggregates that disrupt normal biological processes and in some cases kill cells. Such aggregation is the underlying mechanism behind a wide range of diseases, including Alzheimer’s, Lewy Body Dementia, prion disease, and type II diabetes. Many of these illnesses are invariably fatal, and none of them can be cured. To address this challenge, we must understand the processes that govern protein aggregation, allowing us to identify treatments that can disrupt or reverse it. Unfortunately, this is easier said than done: protein aggregation is a slow, path-dependent, and complex process that is difficult to study even under laboratory conditions. The difficulty in experimentally characterizing aggregation strongly motivates theoretical treatment, particularly computational modeling that can provide insight into the mechanisms that may be driving the process. However, this too is easier said than done: the large number of atoms and vast timescales involved in the aggregation process place it out of reach of conventional atomistic and ab initio molecular dynamics methods, and the complex and sometimes irregular structures formed by during aggregation are poorly characterized by the conventional representations used by structural biologists to study well-folded proteins. My group (in collaboration with the Martin lab) has taken a radical approach to this problem, applying network analytic models and methods originally developed to study social structures to the study of protein aggregation. In a recently published paper in the Journal of Physical Chemistry, we apply our network analytic approach to the study of amyloid fibrils, the aggregates centrally involved in Alzheimer’s, Lewy Body, and other dementias (among many other diseases). Developing a new typological framework for studying fibril structure, we show that all fibrils solved in the literature to date fall into one of only five topological classes, allowing us to provide the first systematic typology of amyloid fibril structures. To model fibril formation, we adapt a network modeling approach – exponential family random graph models – originally developed to study social ties such as friendship or sexual contacts to the bonds that hold proteins together. We show that a simple, low-dimensional family of models can reproduce all known fibril types, as well as new types not yet experimentally observed. We also extend our model to study fibril kinetics, allowing us to examine the complex pathways characterizing the aggregation process itself. Due to the computational efficiency of our approach, we are able to model aggregation processes involving hundreds or thousands of monomers corresponding to days or weeks of real time in minutes or hours of simulation time on a laptop. (By contrast, a microsecond long simulation of even a single protein monomer using standard molecular dynamics techniques can take days or weeks on a high performance, GPU-enabled server.) Central to our approach is an exploitation of the deep mathematical connections between the exponential family random graph models developed by statisticians and social scientists and the statistical mechanical models that are a linchpin of modern chemistry and condensed matter physics. Social scientists have long had to develop creative ways to simplify the complexity of the social world while still preserving its most important features; these same methods can be adapted to biophysical systems, giving us a rigorous way of treating complex problems in this domain while retaining computational tractability. Our work in this area has not only provided a new avenue for characterizing and modeling disease-relevant protein systems, but has also led to insights into the behavior of network models that have been brought back (in a recent paper in Journal of Mathematical 14
Sociology) to the study of social networks. While it is common to acknowledge contributions of the physical and biological sciences to the social sciences, our work provides a true example of how the mathematical social sciences can contribute to fundamental advances in the physical and biological sciences.
Note: a video highlighting this research can also be found at https://www.dropbox.com/s/plcznv1461x80vp/FibrilTopologyMovie.mp4?dl=0
Individual Decision-Making
Robin Keller
When environmental or societal outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be assessed and applied.
Citation: L. Robin Keller and Jay Simon (Merage alumnus), January 2019, “Preference Functions for Spatial Risk Analysis”, Risk Analysis, vol .39, issue 1, pp. 244-256, in Special Issue: Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis, accepted 7-31-17, submitted 6-2016, Version of Record appeared online in early view prior to print: Sept. 7, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12892.
Igor Kopylov
This year I published a paper “Subjective Probabilities and Confidence When Facts are Forgotten” in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (jointly with J. Miller from University of Melbourne). I have also received and submitted a revise and resubmit at the Journal of Economic Theory on the paper “Comparative Ignorance and Context-Dependent Ambiguity Aversion”. The revision has simplified some of my previous results to the case when ambiguity aversion is affected by comparative ignorance and other context-dependent effects.
Second, I have finished and submitted a draft “Minimal Rationalizations” where I have obtained a full classification of multi-utility models with any given number of types and together with some uniqueness claims. Multi-utility models can be used to fit incomplete choice data in several distinct ways. I have presented this work at Georgetown University, two conferences, and IMBS seminar.
Third, I have progressed on two projects that are joint with PhD students Erya Yang from the Economics Department and Duke Chowdhury from the Business school. Both projects employ the students’ coding skills to implement some theoretical algorithms in choice theory to simulated and real data.
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Perception and Psychophysics
Kimberly A. Jameson
During the past academic year Kimberly A. Jameson, as Project Scientist in the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, has achieved substantial recent scientific research advances and scholarly service and activity to the IMBS. Jameson is a active member of the IMBS, actively conducting interdisciplinary research that is both translational and at the core of our mission; she continues to apply and obtain intra- and extramural funding for her research; she continues advising MBS PhD students and campus-wide honors undergraduates, as well as medical school interns in the UCI School of Medicine; she serves as Director of the Color Cognition Laboratory in the IMBS; and continues to actively connect IMBS scholars in collaborative activities with internationally recognized scientists from campus, industry and abroad.
During the past year she has innovated novel methods and carried out important research on cognitive and perceptual processing of sensory domains, and in particular, the visual processing of environmental color stimuli. Jameson's work is well published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and has additionally been featured in popular science publications in the international print and television media. In addition to her recent media exposure featured by series such as The Nature of Things, BBC, Discover Magazine, Canal+, KPBS, since her last review segments featuring Jameson's research have been filmed by Canadian Documentary Producers the Montreal-based Human+ Production series.
Jameson spearheaded the formation of the Color Cognition Group in the IMBS, which is one of the leading groups in the area of formal modeling and experimental study of color perception. In keeping with the mission of the IMBS, Jameson's group brings together faculty and students from across campus (including the School of Medicine, Gavin Herbert Eye Institute and School of Engineering's Calit2) to work on challenging problems yielding general insights into human and artificial intelligence and cross-cultural differences in cognition.
UCI Colleagues and Students who actively collaborate with Jameson on the topics supported by the Color Cognition Group include:
(1) Prof. Andrew Browne MD PhD, Prof., UCI School of Medicine & Gavin Herbert Eye Institute, UCI. (2) Prof. M. Cristina Kenney MD PhD, UCI School of Medicine & Gavin Herbert Eye Institute, UCI. (3) Shari Atilano MS, UCI School of Medicine. (4) Adriana Briscoe PhD, EcoEvo, Prof., School of Biological Sciences, UCI. (5) Sergio Gago PhD, Lecturer, Informatics, Calit2, UCI. (6) Emeritus Prof. A. Kimball Romney PhD, IMBS, UCI. (7) Timothy Satalich PhD, Research Associate, IMBS, UCI. (8) Kirbi Joe, IMBS PhD student, UCI.
Jameson also continues to engage in collaborative research with internationally recognized 16
experts in areas that support her IMBS research interests. These include maintaining systematic research efforts, and fostering training and collaborative opportunities for MBS students and colleagues with:
Prof. Vladimir Bochko, Department of Electrical Engineering and Energy Technology, University of Vaasa, Finland.
Prof. Lorne Whitehead, University of British Columbia, Canada, and Chair of the Lighting Standards division of the International Commission on Illumination.
Prof. Michael Webster, Foundation Professor of Psychology, University of Nevada, Reno.
Prof. Ulf Dietrich-Reips, Professor of Internet Science, Department of Psychology, University of Konstanz, Germany.
Apart from her interdisciplinary research, Jameson has made numerous outstanding contributions to the profession. As PI on her recent NSF funded project Jameson has brought to completion a large-scale public access database which is a novel contribution for cross-cultural color research and data-analytics that is now available as a resource to the general academic research community (https://colcat.calit2.uci.edu). Jameson continues to serve as a reviewer of both scientific journal articles, proposals for extramural funding, student honors and degree thesis, and on IMBS postdoctoral and hiring committees. Jameson continues to serve as special editor in journals and encyclopedias in her area of research expertise, and is now serving as an Editor for the new journal Elements in Perception, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781108582995.
In November 2018 Jameson organized and carried out one of more highly successful two-day IMBS conferences entitled “The Formal Modeling and Analysis of Color Categorization: Innovations and Insights since Berlin and Kay (1969)”. As promised, the conference talks and discussion presented a transformative understanding of the cognitive and social bases for color categorization and in doing so contributed broader insights into human and artificial cognition. The conference successfully blended leading researchers from a number of fields including Anthropology, Linguistics, Computer Science, Cognitive Science, Physics, Robotics, and Logic and Philosophy of Science.
The ultimate aims this IMBS conference satisfied included: (1) Providing a comprehensive view of the state of the art in color categorization research, taking stock of advances since Berlin and Kay’s (1969) seminal work, "Basic Color Terms: Their Universality and Evolution.” (2) Establishing a common research agenda in color categorization, producing new collaborations, and coordinating research efforts across a large number of diverse fields. (3) Introducing new theoretical approaches to the area developed in the IMBS at UC Irvine, including computational 17
approaches to learning color categorization systems based on concepts/techniques from evolutionary game theory. (4) Publicizing new data sources, including UC Irvine’s ColCat Color Categorization Archive.
And (5) generalizing the insights from color categorization to produce new approaches to human and artificial cognition. The conference was extremely well-attended, by not only research scientists advancing novel approaches in the area, but also American and National Academy of Sciences members whom originated of the field in 1969. (see talks at https://youtu.be/DYQ0jMiZlns).
During her ongoing affiliation with IMBS, Jameson has participated in the IMBS colloquium and graduate lunch series, given research presentations at IMBS sponsored conferences, engaged with other IMBS members interactively to involve research professionals from local industry and from other research universities, directed the Color Cognition Research group series in IMBS, provided career advice and academic assistance to both graduate and undergraduate students in the Social Sciences, and has been involved in daily research collaborations with several members of the UCI School of Social Sciences, School of Medicine and School of Engineering.
Zyg Pizlo
Human subjects are known to produce near-optimal tours in the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), and they do it in time that is, on average, a linear function of the number of cities. In most prior experiments, the cities were points on a Euclidean plane. The subjects treat TSP as a visual problem and solve it using a multiscale pyramid representation of the problem. Such a pyramid representation exists in the human brain. However, this pyramid is built on top of a distorted map of the visual stimulus that exists in the primary visual area (area V1) of the brain. Specifically, the representation in area V1 is a complex-log map, which is a member of conformal maps. So, I asked a question as to whether the human mind solves the problem in the Euclidean representation on the retina in the subject’s eye, or in the complex-log representation in the brain? The subjects are convinced that they solve the problem in the Euclidean representation that is presented to her. Our computational models, when compared to empirical results, suggest that the mind solves the problem in the complex-log map. This is similar to our results in another class of visual tasks, namely, integrating closed contours in noisy images. All this suggests that logarithmic functions, complex variables and the constant “e”, which is the base of a natural logarithm, have all been discovered by Nature, well before mathematicians re-discovered them.
Next, I showed that humans can produce near-optimal TSP tours when the metric is not Euclidean. This has been demonstrated in TSP where the cities are on the Euclidean plane in the presence of obstacles. Because of the obstacles, the pairwise geodesics are not always straight lines because the subject has to go around obstacles. In a preliminary study, I showed that this representation is transformed to a Euclidean approximation by means of a Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). The subjects apparently solve the two-dimensional (2D) problem with obstacles
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by using a 2D or 3D Euclidean approximation. These results provide a very strong test for the perceptual relevance of MDS.
In my third line of research, I discussed the role of symmetry in perception and cognition. Physicists have recognized, during the last 100 years, that Natural Science would be impossible without the invariance and symmetry of Natural Laws. In fact, without symmetry and invariance it would not make any sense to talk about the Natural Laws, in the first place. I pointed out, in my recent paper published in the American Journal of Psychology, that the absence of these two concepts in theories of perception and cognition is surprising and hard to justify. The only way to explain this omission is to recognize the dominant role of empiricism in social sciences during the last 200 years. If the human mind were a tabula rasa at birth, and it is not, then one would not expect any invariance in cognitive laws: each person, with his or her individual life story, would be operating according to idiosyncratic mechanisms that had been learned over their lifespan. If true, this would make the science of the human mind nearly impossible. The fact that all humans actually see the 3D environment the same way, a fact that has received strong support in my recent experiments, makes it possible to organize Cognitive Science around the concept of invariance, paving a way to a unified Natural Science. Invariance (symmetry) in the Natural Laws, allowed Emmy Noether (1918) to derive conservation laws in physics through the application of a least-action principle. This celebrated theorem has its analogy in perception and cognition, a theoretical fact demonstrated in my recent writings.
Social and Economic Phenomena
Jan K. Brueckner
A cartoon in Harvey Rosen's public finance textbook, shows an Air Force general pointing to a diagram of a jet fighter and saying: ``At last! A weapons system absolutely impervious to attack: It has components manufactured in all 435 congressional districts!" At first, one might think this statement is about ``pork-barrel" politics, where taxes raised at the national level support local spending that only benefits individual jurisdictions. But since defense spending is valued by the entire country, the general is not making a pork- barrel statement at all, but is instead talking about something different: local production of a national public good. His point is that local production of defense components builds overall support for national defense by raising local incomes, which in turns makes widespread distribution of production desirable from the Pentagon's point of view.
My recent (coauthored) research provides a theoretical analysis of this phenomenon along with empirical evidence. The key feature of the model is that the level of the national public good equals the sum of the levels produced in the various jurisdictions. This assumption is roughly accurate for production of fighter planes, and it is perhaps even more accurate for research grants. The model also makes explicit how public production generates local income. Taking this income effect into account, the analysis then portrays the political struggle in the national legislature over the assignment of production to jurisdictions, which is resolved by imposition of the wishes of a 19
``minimum winning coalition." In the model, this coalition assigns each of its member jurisdictions a larger production share than the shares given to nonmembers (which may be zero), and it also sets the level of the national public good (which, together with the production share, determines a jurisdiction's output).
The analysis generates two notable efficiency verdicts: production of the national public good is inefficiently concentrated instead of equally (and optimally) divided across jurisdictions; and the level of the good is inefficiently high relative to the optimal level, which arises with equal production shares. These results are entirely new to the literature.
John P. Boyd
1. I am applying an advanced algebraic techniques, Gröbner Bases, to generalize the Spearman's law of tetrads and Kelley's law of pentads. The goal here is also to determine the dimensionality of data. 2. A.K.Romney and I are using orthogonal polynomials, the so-called Jacobi polynomials, to efficiently describe color vision. 3. I am exploring a new idea in log-linear models that is less restrictive than quasi- independence. This will be used in a model testing regular equivence.
Jean-Paul Carvalho
This year I was Interim Director of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences.
I was appointed to the boards of the Association for the Study of Economics, Religion & Culture (ASREC) and the Association for Analytic Learning about Islam & Muslim Societies (AALIMS), and made a ‘core’ member of the Network for Economic Research on Identity, Norms and Narratives (ERINN).
I also served as Chair of the recruitment for the Falmagne Chair.
Steve Frank
I have for many years been working on understanding measurement and pattern from an invariance (symmetry) perspective. This year, I developed several significant applications of the underlying theory, which I think will help a wider audience understand the fundamental importance of this topic. The next section lists the citations. For each citation, I also provide a link to an abstract that you can look at if you are interested in seeing what was accomplished.
I continued my long interest in the theory of natural selection. From an abstract perspective, natural selection has many interesting relations to fundamental equations in other areas of science.
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I was able to tie much of that together n the “Price equation program” article listed in the next section.
Bernie Grofman
As I noted in previous reports I have previously served twice as a Special Master for a federal court. Being chosen as a Special Master by a federal court is the highest distinction a political science voting rights specialist can receive. I am pleased to report that in 2018-19 I was asked to serve for the third time as a Special Master in a case involving a finding of racial gerrymandering in eleven districts of the lower chamber of the Virginia state legislature (the House of Delegates). To remedy this racial gerrymander the plan I proposed to the Court redrew 26 districts in the state (the eleven unconstitutional districts, plus a number of adjacent districts). That plan is being used in the 2019 election.
I am also pleased to report that the plans I drew in 2018 for School Board and County Supervisor elections in the tiny county of San Juan, Utah, which has a Native American population majority, resulted in 2018 in Native American candidates serving on a majority of the County supervisorial and school districts for the first time ever, while the 2018 congressional election in Virginia in the plan I drew in 2015 for the federal court continued to provide electoral success to two African-American candidates.
I am the senior author of an Amicus Brief in two consolidated court cases involving challenges to partisan gerrymandering: Grofman, Bernard and Keith Gaddie. Amicus Brief on Behalf of Neither Party in Rucho v. Common Cause (North Carolina) and Lamone v. Benisek (Maryland) , Nos. 18-422, 18-726 , U.S. Supreme Court, filed February 12, 2019.
An important part of my research contribution as Peltason Chair involves international outreach and collaboration, making linkages to political science and economics departments and individual scholars abroad. My activities in 2018-19 in five countries (UK, Israel, Russia, Italy, Germany) were typical of this effort: including time spent as a Visiting Scholar-in-Residence, Nuffield College, Oxford University for two weeks in September 2018; presenting a paper at the Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society in Jerusalem in April 2019; presenting a paper at the Twelfth Annual Conference on Economic Development at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow in April 2019, and giving a seminar in the Economics Department of the Higher School of Economics in Nizhny, Novgorod, Russia in April; giving a seminar in the Political Science Department of the University of Siena in May, 2019; and giving a seminar in the Economics Department of the University of Bayreuth in May 2019.
Marek Kaminski
Most of my recent work has been connected to the topic of electoral reform and the comparison of single-member districts (SMDs) versus Proportional Representation (PR) systems. In a most
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recent article published in Public Choice, I extend formally the concept of a “spoiler” to PR systems and investigate how spoilers affected Polish politics between 1991 and 2015.
Andrew Noymer
I work on demography, with an emphasis on health in general and mortality in particular. The human population is a complex system in constant motion among many dimensions; as such, my work fits very well in the IMBS rubric. My work in the recent past has focused on long run changes in life expectancy and on infectious disease dynamics. Since the last edition of the IMBS annual report I have also published methodological work on using convex hulls for the analysis of spread in demographic data.
Don Saari
My activities this year emphasized the following:I finished writing my book on the “Math of Finance.” It was adopted by Springer and it will be published in September, 2019.
Dan Jessie and I continued our work on creating coordinate systems for games. The idea is that there are so many interesting games, where a typical analysis has an ad hoc flavor of concentrating on specific choices, such as the stag hunt, prisoner’s dilemma, and so forth. This leaves open issues of the “whole;” how do game relate with one another, what causes, in general, the various complexities? The coordinate system we developed, which is based on the symmetry structures of games, answers many of the questions by orthogonally separating tensions caused by individual choice (Nash behavior) from that requiring group effort (coordination, cooperation, externalities, etc.) It this manner, it now becomes trivial to create any number of examples of games (for the lab, a paper, etc.) that have, for instance, the identical strategic structure, but differ significantly with other traits designed to divert the attention of players. Much of the year was spent writing this material up in a book form.
Stergios Skaperdas
In “Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?” (forthcoming in Public Choice) Samarth Vaidya and I have explored the following puzzle: Over the past two millennia successful pre-modern states in Eurasia adopted and cultivated Big-God religions that emphasize (i) the ruler's legitimacy as divinely ordained and (ii) a morality adapted for large-scale societies that can have positive economic effects. We made sense of that development by building on previous research that has conceptualized pre-modern states as maximizing the ruler's profit. We modelled the interaction of rulers and subjects who have both material and psychological payoffs, the latter emanating from religious identity. Overall, religion reduces the cost of controlling subjects through the threat of violence, increases production, increases tax revenue, and reduces banditry. A Big-God ruler, who also is a believer, has stronger incentives to invest in expanding the number of believers and the intensity of belief, as well as investing in state capacity. Furthermore, such
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investments often are complementary, mutually reinforcing one another, thus leading to an evolutionary advantage for rulers that adopted Big-God religions.
Rein Taagepera
Taagepera has received the Johan Skytte Prize (2008), the largest in political science worldwide. His broad goal, voiced in Making Social Sciences More Scientific (2008) and “Science walks on two legs, but social sciences try to hop on one” (2018), is to establish logically grounded and quantitatively predictive relationships among social factors, expressed in interconnected equations along the format of most laws of physics. While he has also studied growth and decay of empires and developed an interaction model of world population growth, technology and the Earth’s carrying capacity (2014), he has mostly implemented this goal in electoral and party systems. The Laakso-Taagepera effective number of parties (1979) is widely used. It largely determines the duration of governmental cabinets (2010).
The number of parties depends on the number of seats available -- in electoral district and in legislative assembly (itself tied to population through cube root law, 1972). The resulting “Seat Product” largely predicts the number of parties and the size of the largest (2007). Votes from Seats (2017, with Shugart) adds baffling evidence that Seat Product largely determines even the splintering of votes and deviation from proportional representation, another major concern in democratic politics.
This is prime evidence that interconnected quantitative relationships, so basic to natural sciences, do exist in social nature. A chain of logically based predictions extends from Seat Product to number of parties, cabinet duration and deviation from PR. This monumental package of “connections among connections” enables informed institutional engineering to design and modify party systems.
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III. IMBS FACULTY RESEARCH SEMINARS AND LABORATORIES
A. Research Seminars
The research activities of the Institute often result in graduate research seminars. Among those this year:
Carter Butts Network Theory (Sociology) Winter 2019 Jean-Paul Carvalho Micoeconomic Theory Winter 2019 Jean-Paul Carvalho Economics of Identity & Culture Spring 2019 David Eppstein Weekly seminar on theoretical computer science F,W,S, 18-19 Ami Glazer Workshop in Industrial Organization and Corporate Welfare Studies Summer 2018 F,W, 18 - 19 Simon Huttegger Reading group on formal epistemology F,W 18-19 Huttegger & Skyrms Philosophy, Politics and Economies Fall 2018 Huttegger & Skryms Chance Winter 2019 Marek Kaminski Game Theory Fall 2018 Marek Kaminski Voting Theory Winter 2019 L. Robin Keller Operations Analytics Fall 2018 L. Robin Keller Decision Theory Spring 2019 Narens & Skyrms Social Dynamics F&W 2018-2019 Narens & Skyrms Utilitarianism Spring 2019
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B. Research Laboratories
Mathematical Reasoning for the Sciences Faculty Organizer: Don Saari
As labeled by the students, “Don squad.” This weekly discussion group identifies and discusses research issues coming from the social and behavioral sciences. An interesting aspect is how a goal is to identify what kinds of mathematics needs to be invented, or modified, to address these issues. Weekly meeting times scheduled each quarter to accommodate class and teaching schedules.
Experimental Social Science Laboratory (ESSL) Faculty Organizer: Mike McBride and John Duffy
The Experimental Social Science Laboratory (ESSL) is a computer laboratory for the experimental study of individual and interactive decision making. Located at SBSG 1240, the laboratory can conduct computer-based experiments of up to 40 subjects, but ESSL also has capabilities to conduct internet-based experiments. ESSL is available for use by researchers of all social scientific disciplines who conduct experiments according to the standards of experimental economics. ESSL personnel are affiliated with many departments in the UCI School of Social Science, including Economics, Anthropology, Cognitive Sciences, Logic and Philosophy of Science, Political Science, and Sociology, and also with departments in the School of Social Ecology and Paul Merage School of Business.
Social Network Research Group (SNRG) Faculty Organizer: Carter Butts We continue to host the Social Network Research group, which meets weekly during the quarter (day and time vary). The Social Network Research Group (SNRG) is a weekly meeting of researchers in the social network area. The SNRG welcomes discussions and/or presentations of current theoretical, methodological, and/or empirical work on or of relevance to the study of social structure. Discussion of “early phase” research and preliminary findings are especially welcomed, as are presentations by students and newcomers to the field.
(www.relationalanalysis.org).
Cognition and Color Reading Group Research Organizer: Kimberly Jameson A weekly discussion group of published research articles, or participants' on-going research interests, on topics of cognition and color perception. Topics covered in recent years include: Color perception correlates of photopigment opsin genes, psychophysical investigations of heterochromatic luminance discrimination, adaptive optics imaging of the human retina, comparative color vision behavior, neural correlates of human color perception, individual variation and color perception, color vision diagnostics and clinical applications, etc. Research
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topics discussed typically focus on higher-order aspects of color processing, exploring front-end processing issues when they bear on phenomenology. Meeting location: SSPA 2142
Meeting time: Fridays, 11:00 am - 12:30 pm; meeting dates designated at the beginning of each quarter. Schedule posted at: http://www.imbs.uci.edu/~kjameson/ColorCogFALL2017.html
Social Dynamics Faculty Organizer: Brian Skyrms Social Dynamics is a research seminar, where graduate students and faculty present research projects, and there is vigorous critical discussion. Instructors: Louis Narens, Don Saari, and Brian Skyrms Meets fall quarter on Tuesdays, 2:00 - 5:00 p.m. on 7th floor of the Social Science Tower.
Computational Models of Language Reading Group (CoLa) Faculty Organizer: Lisa Pearl Topics of interest for the group include computational models of language learning, computational learning theory, principles underlying models of language acquisition and language change, and models of information extraction from language by humans. We meet four times a quarter for about an hour, and it’s usually a nicely feisty discussion. Day/time to meet will be updated on the website.
IV. GRADUATE TRAINING
A. Ph.D. Students
Louis Narens is the Director of the MBS graduate program.
The following is our current roster of 9 students enrolled in the Ph.D. program in Mathematical Behavioral Sciences during the current academic year. They are listed in Appendix F.
Nikhil Addleman Lucila Arroya Calvin Cochran Maryam Gooyabadi Santiago Guisasola Kirbi Joe William Leibzon Joseph Nunn Junying Zhao
B. Graduate Activities
While the formal part of our graduate program is small, the actual impact on the UCI graduate program is more extensive. MBS graduate students meet weekly with the interim
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director and weekly colloquium speaker to discuss current research, allowing for expanded interaction and networking opportunities with professors and researchers.
C. Friday Research Presentations
This IMBS activity was coordinated by MBS graduate students and participants Nikhil Addleman, Calvin Cochran, and Maryam Gooyabadi. Weekly research meetings give space for graduate students and faculty to gather on Fridays from Noon – 1:00 p.m. in the Luce Conference Room to introduce research they are working on. Graduate students from surrounding graduate programs participate on a regular basis with our weekly Friday lecture section and our annual graduate student conference. The presentations are followed by discussion periods afterwards.
This year’s presentations are as follows:
October 12 PATRICK NEAL RUSSELL JULIUS Graduate Student in Economics UCI “Public goods games under a nonlinear tax system with interior dominant strategy equilibria”
October 19 MIKE SHIN Graduate Student in Economics UCI “Expectations and Stock Market Participation: Theory and Evidence”
November 9 STEPHAN JAGAU Postdoctoral Scholar IMBS UCI “Psychological Expected Utility”
November 16 JOHN DUFFY Professor Department of Economics UCI “Living a Lie: Theory and Evidence on Public Preference Falsification”
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January 11 CHEW SOO HONG Professor of Economics and Provost’s Chair University of Singapore UC Irvine “Motivated False Memory”
January 18 Fernando P. Santos Postdoctoral Fellow Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Princeton University “Indirect reciprocity under simple norms and costly reputation building”
February 1 DANIEL HERRMANN Graduate Student Logic and Philosophy of Science UCI “Inventing Correlated Conventions”
February 8 EMRE NEFTCI Assistant Professor Department of Cognitive Science UCI “Neuromorphic Machine Intelligence”
February 15 ZACHARY SCHALLER Graduate Student Department of Economics UCI “Bargaining and Conflict with Up-front Investments”
February 22 WILLIAM LEIBZON Graduate Student MBS UCI “Visualization and Mathematics of Gerrymandering in US House of Representatives Elections”
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March 1 JOSEPH NUNN Graduate Student MBS UC “AB-Solver: A novel 3-CNF SAT algorithm inspired by human cognition”
March 8 KYLE KOLE Graduate Student Department of Economics UCI “Investing in Socializing at the Workplace”
APRIL 26 ANDRES PEREA Maastricht University “Common belief in rationality in games with unawareness”
May 17 Junying (June) Zhao Graduate Student MBS UCI “Hippocratic Paradox – Co-evolution of Social Practice, Medical Ethics, and Health Law”
May 24 NIKHIL ADDLEMAN Graduate Student MBS UCI “The Ecology of Religion”
June 7 DONALD BAMBER Specialist Department of Cognitive Science UCI “Integrating Fisher and Bayes via Mimetic Modeling”
D. Duncan Luce Graduate Student Conference
IMBS sponsors a yearly graduate student conference where students in the MBS program, as well as other students whose research interests are related to MBS, present their research. The
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graduate organizers of the annual conference were MBS graduate students Nikhil Addleman, Calvin Cochran, and Maryam Gooyabadi.
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E. 2019 Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award
Each year, IMBS presents the Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award to a graduate student for the best dissertation that uses mathematics to develop conceptual advances for issues coming from the social and behavioral sciences. Going beyond the use of mathematics for computational purposes, the intent is to award a dissertation that uses concepts from mathematics to reach new conclusions.
Santiago Guisasola receives this year's award for his dissertation, "Towards a Mathematical Theory of Group Creativity and Collaboration." Santiago received his bachelor's degree in mathematics from University of Central Florida in 2012. From UC Irvine, he earned his Ph.D. in mathematical behavioral sciences in Fall 2018. His dissertation provides a platform for studying group creativity and removes many mathematical obstacles that, in the past, have hindered carrying out such a program. Santiago is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
V. COMMUNICATION
A. IMBS Conferences
The director’s statement expanded on the areas of interest for this year’s research conferences. We are providing the following conference agendas to give a more in-depth look at the scope of our presentations.
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THE INSTITUTE FOR MATHEMATICAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES, FORMAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF COLOR CATEGORIZATION; INNOVATIONS AND INSIGHTS SINCE BERLIN AND KAY (1969) FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 9:30AM – 6:30PM & SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 9:30AM – 6:30PM SSPA 2112 DUNCAN LUCE CONFERENCE ROOM
Friday, November 02, 2018 9:30AM Coffee and Opening Remarks, Kimberly A. Jameson and Kim Romney "From Basic Color Terms to the World Color Survey: A self-indulgent 10:30AM chronicle". Brent Berlin & Paul Kay 11:30AM "The World Color Survey (WCS) Online Digital Archive". Richard Cook 12:30PM Lunch Break 2:00PM "Evolutionary models of color categorization". Natalia Komarova 3:00PM "A mathematical approach to color categorization studies". Nicole Fider 4:00PM Break "Further evolution of natural categorization systems: A new approach to 4:10PM evolving color concepts". Maryam Gooyabadi "Two Italian basic blue categories: Visualizing diatopic variation of referential 5:10PM meanings". Galina V. Paramei 6:10PM Discussion and Adjourn
Saturday, November 03, 2018 "The sparse, distributed, diverse mapping of color terms onto color space, 9:30AM Part I: Motifs and Hering theory". Angela Brown & Delwin Lindsey "The sparse, distributed, diverse mapping of color terms onto color space, 10:30AM Part II: Hadzane, the color communication game, and color sorting". Delwin Lindsey & Angela Brown "When does "Bright" mean "Prototypal"? Color-term modifiers in five 11:30AM European languages, examined with color-survey data". David Bimler & Mari Uuskula 12:30PM Lunch Break 2:00PM "Color naming and cognition in computational perspective". Terry Regier "Quantifying diachronic change in category meaning using evolutionary 3:00PM models of learning". Kirbi Joe 4:00PM Break "Mechanisms of color, uncovered by neuroscience and language". Bevil 4:10PM Conway "Color categories and the perceptual representation of color". Michael A. 5:10PM Webster 6:10PM Discussion and Adjourn
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INSTITUTE FOR MATHEMATICAL BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms Friday and Saturday, March 22 & 23, 2019 Luce Conference Room, Social Science Plaza A, Room 2112
FRIDAY, MARCH 22 9:15 – 9:45 a.m. Coffee & Pastries
9:45 –10:00 a.m. Director's Welcome – Jean-Paul Carvalho Chair: David Hirshleifer 10:00 – 10:45 a.m. Elena Miu, Arizona State University, Models of cumulative cultural evolution
10:45 –11.30 a.m. Alberto Bisin, New York University, Culture and Institutions
11:30 – 12:00 p.m. Coffee Break
12:00 – 12:45 p.m. Robert Boyd, Arizona State University, Arbitration supports reciprocity when there are frequent perception errors
12:45 – 2:30 p.m. Lunch Break Chair: Natalia Komarova 2:30 – 3:15 p.m. Myrna Wooders, Vanderbilt University, Own experience bias in a labor market with heterogeneous rewards
3:15 – 4:00 p.m. Jean-Paul Carvalho, University of California, Irvine, Identity and underrepresentation
4:00 – 4:30 p.m. Coffee Break
4:30 – 5:15 p.m. David Hirshleifer, University of California, Irvine, Visibility bias in the transmission of consumption beliefs and undersaving
SATURDAY, MARCH 23
9:30 – 10:00 a.m. Coffee & Pastries Chair: Brian Skyrms 10:00 – 10:45 a.m. Erol Akcay, University of Pennsylvania, On social norms as choreographers of social interactions and as generator of prosocial preferences
10:45 – 11:30 a.m. Natalia Komarova, University of California, Irvine, Mathematical modeling of culture: learning from an inconsistent source and music evolution
11:30 – 12:00 p.m. Coffee Break
12:00 – 12:45 p.m. Nicole Creanza, Vanderbilt University, Models of cultural evolution in structured populations
12:45 – 2:30 p.m. Lunch Break Chair: Jean-Paul Carvalho 2:30 – 3:15 p.m. Jared Rubin, Chapman University, A theory of conservative revivals
3:15 – 4:00 p.m. Brian Skyrms, University of California, Irvine, From Democritus to signaling networks
4:00 – 4:30 p.m. Coffee Break
4:30 – 5:15 p.m. Larry Iannaccone, Chapman University, God games: An experimental study of uncertainty, superstition, and cooperation
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B. Conferences/Seminars Organized By IMBS Members
Carter Butts
Co-Organizer and lecturer, statnet workshops at the 2018 NASN meeting and 2019 Sunbelt conference.
Organizer for the Regular session on Quantitative Methodology, 2019 ASA Annual Meeting.
Jean-Paul Carvalho
Organizer, Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms, IMBS, March 2019.
Ami Glazer
Panel on corporate welfare, 2019 Public Choice Society Annual Meetings, March 14-16, Louisville KY
Kimberly A. Jameson
November 2 & 3, 2018: Jameson organized and carried out the IMBS conference entitled: “The Formal Modeling and Analysis of Color Categorization: Innovations and Insights since Berlin and Kay (1969)”. Attendees included a notable set of distinguished National Academy Members and other internationally recognized faculty who presented on and discussed novel advances in Color Categorization Research.
Gregory Scontras
North American Computational Linguistics Olympiad. January 24, 2019; March 7, 2019. UC Irvine.
The Second UC Irvine Workshop in Logical Semantics. March 2, 2019. UC Irvine.
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C. IMBS Colloquium Series
During the academic year the Institute conducts a weekly colloquia series with speakers from both inside as well as outside the Institute. For speakers outside California, we attempt, insofar as possible, to coordinate their visit with other travel to California and to co-sponsor joint talks with other research units. We distribute a relevant paper, when available, prior to each colloquium. Most papers are also downloadable from the IMBS web site at http://www.imbs.uci.edu/newsevents/events/colloquia.php.
The following talks were presented in the IMBS Luce Conference Room during the 2018 – 2019 academic year:
October 5 Joint talk with L&PS NIGEL GOLDENFELD Swanlund Endowed Chair and Center for Advanced Study Professor of Physics University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign “Is there Universality in Biology”
October 25 FUAD ALESKEROV National Research University Higher School of Economics and Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Russia “New Centrality Indices for Networks and their Applications”
November 1 ZYG PIZLO Professor and Falmagne Endowed Chair Department of Cognitive Sciences UCI “The Role of Representation in Solving Combinatorial Optimization Problems”
November 8 JEFF BARRETT Chancellor’s Professor Logic & Philosophy of Science UCI “Self-Assembling Games and Networks”
November 15 LISA PEARL Professor of Language Science and Cognitive Sciences Chair of Language Science UCI 35
“Quantitative Approaches to Learning Linking Theories in Language”
November 29 VIJAY VAZIRANI Distinguished Professor Computer Science UCI “Google’s Adwords Market: How Theory Influenced Practice”
December 6 ROBIN KELLER Professor of Operations and Decision Technologies Merage School of Business UCI “Spatial Preference Models with Multiple Objectives across Multiple Geographic Regions”
January 24 ISAAC WEISS Senior Research Scientist University of Maryland “Object recognition using a knowledge-based dual hierarchy graphical model”
January 31 GREG SCONTRAS Assistant Professor of Linguistics UC Irvine “The Role of Subjectivity in Adjective Ordering Preferences”
February 14 RICHARD FUTRELL Assistant Professor of Linguistics UC Irvine “Natural language as a code: Modeling human language using information theory”
February 21 AVNER SEROR Research Associate in Economics Chapman University “Parental Rearing Practices, Intergenerational Transmission and Child Development”
February 28 IGOR KOPYLOV Professor of Economics UC Irvine “Minimal Rationalizations”
March 7 36
LUYI GUI Assistant Professor of Operations and Decision Technologies Paul Merage School of Business UC Irvine “Efficient and Effective Implementation of Electronic Waste Recycling Legislation – A Cooperative Game Theory Practice”
March 14 Joint talk with ACO NICOLE IMMORLICA Researcher Microsoft Research Lab – New England
April 4 JIM WEATHERALL Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science UC Irvine “Polarization and Factionization in Science”
April 18 LINDA COHEN Professor of Economics UC Irvine “The Political Economy of Electricity Rates”
April 25 ACACIO de BARROS Professor of Humanities and Liberal Studies San Francisco State University “Information and Context”
May 2 LAURA DOVAL Assistant Professor of Economics Caltech “Sequential Information Design”
May 9 TOM TROGDON Assistant Professor of Mathematics UC Irvine “Random matrices, transportation statistics, decision making time and universality”
May 16 FEDERICO ECHENIQUE Professor of Economics Caltech 37
“The Edgeworth Conjecture with Small Coalitions and Approximate Equilibria in Large Economies”
May 23 SID BANERJEE Assistant Professor Cornell University “The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Artificial Currencies”
May 30 GEORGE SPERLING Distinguished Professor of Cognitive Sciences UC Irvine “Deriving and Applying a Theory of Perceived Motion Direction”
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VI. BUDGET
A. Appropriations and Expenditures
Appropriations:
2018-19 IMBS Budget allocation $ 90,000.00 2018-19 Overhead return $ 12,850.00 Total budget for 2018-19: $102,850.00
Expenditures:
Salaries & Benefits $ 48,535.00
Director’s Stipend $ 3,600.00
Social Sciences Business Office (Admin. Sup) $ 7,500.00
Social Sciences Business Office (Overhead) $ 12,850.00
Conference/Colloquia /Seminars $ 20,107.00
Supplies & Expenses $ 3,597.00
Graduate Student Support $ 6,661.00
Total Expenditures: $102,850.00
Closed fiscally solvent
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B. Extramural Funding Activity
GRANTS AWARDED AND ACTIVE:
IMBS faculty research was supported by research grants totaling $22,921,282. The following is a detailed breakdown of the extramural funding:
Carter Butts
Source: NSF MMS Amount: $441,705 Award Period: 2018 – 2021 Title: Statistical Models for Dynamic Networks with Endogenous Vertex Migration Role: PI
Steve Frank
Source: NSF Award Amount: $275,000 Award Period: 2013 – 2018 Title: ABR: Models of Natural Selection, Development, and Life History Role: PI
David Eppstein
Source: NSF Award Amount: $159,987 Award Period: 2016-2019 Title: Collaborative Research: Efficient Algorithms for Cycles on Surfaces Role: Co-PI
Source: NSF Award Amount: $415,894 Award Period: 2016-2019 Title: Sparse Geometric Graph Algorithms Role: PI
Ami Glazer
Source: Troesh Family Foundation Award Amount: $130,000 Award Period: 2018
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Title: Program in Corporate Welfare Studies Role: PI
Source: Troesh Family Foundation Award Amount: $240,000 Award Period: 2019 Title: Program in Corporate Welfare Studies Role: PI
Andrew Noymer
Source: Russell Sage Foundation Amount: $10,000 Award Period: 2018 – 2019 Title: The Opioid Epidemic and Racial Classification on Death Certificates Role: Co investigator/sub-award on grant #93-18-05, April 2018 PI is Prof. Aliya Saperstein of Stanford
Hal Stern
Source: NIMH (renewal) Amount: $15,000,000 Award Period: 2019 – 2024 Title Fragmented Early-Life Experiences, Aberrant Circuit Maturation, and Emotional Vulnerabilities Role: Co-PI PI is Professor T. Baram (UCI)
Source: NIST Amount: $3,700,000 Award Period: 2015 – 2020 Title: Center of Excellence in Forensic Statistics Role: PI (Co-PI of $20,000,000 grant)
Vijay Vazirani
Source: NSF CISE Award Amount: $500,000 Award Period: 2018- 2021 Title: Algorithms for Matching, Markets, and Matching Markets Role: PI
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James Weatherall
Source: John Templeton Foundation Award Amount: $1,369,872 Award Period: 2018-2020 Title: New Directions in Philosophy of Cosmology Role: Co-PI with C. Smeenk, University of Western Ontario
Hongkai Zhao
Project/Proposal Title: Theory and practice for exploiting the underlying structure of probability models in big data analysis Source of Support: NSF Total Award Amount: $249,964 Total Award Period Covered: 06/01/16-05/31/19
Project/Proposal Title: Shape and data analysis using computational differential geometry Source of Support: NSF Total Award Amount: $328,860 Total Award Period Covered: 07/01/14-12/31/18
Project/Proposal Title: Intrinsic complexity of random fields and its connections to random matrices and stochastic differential equations (THIS PROPOSAL) Source of Support: NSF Total Award Amount: $100,000 Total Award Period Covered: 07/01/2018 – 06/30/2021
Pending
Steve Frank Source: NSF Award Amount: $250,000 Award Period: 2020 – 2022 Title:OPUS: CRS: Comparative life history microbes Role: PI
Source: DoD Award Amount: $360,000 Award Period: 2019 - 2022 Title: Robustness increases variability: a fundamental law of biology (Mathematical Sciences/Biomathematics Role: PI
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Kimberly A. Jameson
Source: UC Irvine Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center. Intramural grant proposal Award Amount: $40,019 (proposed budget) Award Period: 2019 – Title: Genetic and Data Analytic Pilot Investigations of Associations between Alzheimer’s Disease and Age-related Macular Degeneration Biomarkers, and their Possible Relationship to Human Photopigment Opsin Gene Variation Role: PI
Michael Lee
NIH R01, sub-contract to Stanford University, “Hierarchical computational models of cognitive control, belief updating, and reward sensitivity in children: a big-data longitudinal neurodevelopmental approach”
Australian Research Council Discovery Project, “Towards an integrated model of reasoning and reasoning development.” Partner Investigator with B. Hayes and J. Dunn.
Lisa Pearl Source: NIH Award Amount: $2,000,000 Award Period: 2019 - Title: How non-literal language develops: A computational framework for investigating children’s understanding of hyperbole, understatement, and sarcasm Role: PI
Gregory Scontras
Source: NIH Award Amount: $2,000,000 Award Period: 2019 - Title: How non-literal language develops: A computational framework for investigating children’s understanding of hyperbole, understatement, and sarcasm Role: PI
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APPENDICES
C. CURRENT FACULTY MEMBERS
APPENDIX A IMBS FACULTY, 2018 - 2019
Robert Akerlof, (Ph.D. Economics, Harvard University). Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Research areas: Applied Microeconomic Theory, Organizational Economics, Sociology and Economics.
Pierre F. Baldi, (Ph.D. Mathematics, California Institute of Technology). Distinguished Professor of Computer Science; Director, Institute for Genomics & Bioinformatics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Bioinformatics, computational biology, probabilistic modeling, machine learning.
Jeffrey Barrett, (Ph.D. Philosophy, Columbia University). Chancellor's Fellow and Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Philosophy of science; theory of knowledge; philosophy of physics.
Michael Birnbaum, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of Psychology, Cal State University, Fullerton. Research areas: Human judgment, decision-making, and utility measurement.
John P. Boyd, (Ph.D. Communication Sciences, University of Michigan). Professor Emeritus of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Algebraic models of social relations, quantitative methods, and sociobiology.
William A. Branch, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Oregon). Chancellor’s Fellow and Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Macroeconomic dynamics.
Myron (Mike) Braunstein, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Michigan). Professor Emeritus of Psychology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Visual perception, especially depth and motion perception.
David Brownstone, (Ph.D. Econometrics and Applied Microeconomics, University of California, Berkeley) Professor and Chair of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Computer-intensive analysis of statistical estimation strategies and applied econometrics.
Jan K. Brueckner, (Ph.D. Economics, Stanford University). Chancellor’s Professor of Economics and Department Chair, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Urban economics, public economics, industrial organization, housing finance.
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Michael Burton, (Ph.D. Anthropology, Stanford University). Professor Emeritus of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Economic and social anthropology.
Carter Butts, (Ph.D. Sociology, Carnigie Mellon University). Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Social networks, Bayesian methods, informant accuracy and strategic behavior.
Jean-Paul Carvalho, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Oxford). Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Game theory; culture, identity and institutions.
Charles Chubb, (Ph.D. Experimental Psychology, New York University). Professor of Cognitive Sciences. University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, perception, and information processing.
Linda Cohen, (Ph.D. Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology). Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Political economy, public choice, and government regulation of business.
Art De Vany, (Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Models of industry organization, health, analysis and policy of extreme events, information processing and market institutions.
Barbara A. Dosher, (Ph.D. Experimental Psychology, University of Oregon). NAS Member, Distinguished Professor of Cognitive Sciences, School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Memory, visual perception, depth from visual motion.
Michael D'Zmura, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Rochester). Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, color, attention, image understanding, virtual reality.
Jeffrey Ely, (Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Berkeley). Charles E. and Emma Morrison Professor of Economics, Director, Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences Program, Northwestern University. Research areas: Pure game theory, applied microeconomics, behavioral and experimental economics.
David A. Eppstein, (Ph.D. Computer Sciences, Columbia University). Chancellor’s Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Computational geometry and graph algorithms, including finite element meshing, minimum spanning trees, shortest paths, dynamic graph data structures, graph coloring, graph drawing, geometric optimization, computational robust statistics, and geometric optimization.
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Jean-Claude Falmagne, (Ph.D. Psychological Sciences, University of Brussels). Research Professor, Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Assessment of knowledge, measurement theory, psychophysics, mathematical psychology.
Katherine Faust, (Ph.D. Social Science, University of California, Irvine). Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical, computational, and conceptual models to study complex phenotypes.
Steven A. Frank, (Ph.D. Biology, University of Michigan). Donald Bren Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Evolution of social behavior; design of reliability.
Michelle Garfinkel, (Ph.D. Economics, Brown University). Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Strategic aspects of monetary and fiscal policies.
Amihai Glazer, (Ph.D. Economics, Yale University). Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Public choice, especially concerning commitment problems.
Bernard Grofman, (Ph.D. Political Science, University of Chicago). Jack W. Peltason Endowed Chair, Professor of Political Science; Past Director, Center for the Study of Democracy, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Models of group decision making, models of individual choice, electoral competition.
Donald Hoffman, (Ph.D. Computational Psychology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Professor of Cognitive Sciences and Information and Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Formal theories of perception, human and machine vision, recovery of depth from images.
Simon Huttegger, (Ph.D. Universität Salzburg). Chancellor’s Fellow and Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Probability theory; philosophy of probability, induction, decision theory, social philosophy, dynamical Systems.
Larry Iannaccone (Ph.D. Economics, University of Chicago). Professor of Economics, Director, Institute for the Study of Religion, Economics, and Society, Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University. Research areas: Economics of religion.
Geoffrey Iverson, (Ph.D. Theoretical Physics, University of Adelaide, Australia, Ph.D. Experimental Psychology, New York University). Professor Emeritus of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Psychophysics, vision, statistical estimation and testing of ordinal models.
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Marek Kaminski, (Ph.D. Government and Politics, University of Maryland). Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Political systems and economics in transition, formal models of voting, political consequences of electoral laws, models of allocation and social choice.
L. Robin Keller, (Ph.D. Management Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of Management, Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Individual decision making, risk analysis, fairness, probability judgements, decision problem structuring.
Pramod P. Khargonekar (Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, University of Florida) Vice Chancellor for Research, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Systems and control theory and applications, smart grid and renewable energy, machine learning and control, engineering education and research, technology and society.
Igor Kopylov, (Ph.D. University of Rochester). Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Microeconomic theory, decision theory, and game theory.
Natalia Komarova, (Ph.D. Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona). Professor of Mathematics, and Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical modeling and biology, virus dynamics, cancer modeling.
Michael D. Lee, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Adelaide). Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Mathematical and computational models of stimulus representation, categorization, memory, decision-making and problem-solving.
Ines Levin, (Ph.D. Social Science, California Institute of Technology). Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Quantitative research methods with substantive applications in the areas of elections, public opinion, and political behavior. Statistical and computational methods for studying opinion-formation and decision-making processes.
Simon Asher Levin, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of Maryland). NAS Member, Director, Center for BioComplexity, George M. Moffett Professor of Biology, Princeton University. Research Areas: Dynamics of populations and communities; spatial heterogeneity and problems of scale; evolutionary ecology; theoretical and mathematical ecology; biodiversity and ecosystem processes.
Elizabeth F. Loftus, (Ph.D. Stanford University) NAS Member, Distinguished Professor: Psychological Science; Criminology; Law and Society; Cognitive Science; Law, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Human memory with specializations in cognitive psychology and law.
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Mark Machina, (Ph.D. Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Professor of Economics, University of California, San Diego. Research areas: Utility, decision making, risk behavior.
Penelope Maddy, (Ph.D. Philosophy, Princeton). Distinguished Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science, and Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Philosophy of mathematics, especially the philosophy of set theory.
Michael McBride, (Ph.D. Economics, Yale University). Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Microeconomics, game theory, and political economy.
Louis Narens, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of Cognitive Sciences, and Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Graduate Advisor for IMBS, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Measurement theory, foundations of science, decision theory.
Andrew Noymer, (Ph.D. Sociology, University of California, Berkeley). Associate Professor of Public Health, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Medical demography, mathematical sociology, quantitative methodology.
Cailin O’Connor, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of California, Irvine) Assistant Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Philosophy of biology, philosophy of science, and evolutionary game theory.
Richard S. Palais, (Ph.D. Mathematics, Harvard University). Adjunct Professor of Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Mathematical Visualization and more specifically to continue the development of Macintosh program 3D-Filmstrip (now called 3D- XplorMath).
Lisa Pearl, (Ph.D. Linguistics, University of Maryland at College Park). Chair and Associate Professor of Language Science, Associate Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Language development, linguistics, computational sociolinguistics, cognitive modeling.
Zygmunt Pizlo, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Maryland at College Park). Professor and Falmagne Endowed Chair, Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Human and machine vision, 3D shape, symmetry, virtual reality, robotics, problem solving.
Dale Poirier, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Wisconsin). Professor of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Econometrics, both theoretical and empirical, specializing in Bayesian econometrics.
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A. Kimball Romney, (Ph.D. Social Anthropology, Harvard University). NAS Member, Emeritus Professor of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Cognitive anthropology, cultural consensus, informant accuracy, quantitative methods.
Jeffrey Rouder, (Ph.D. Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine). Professor and Falmagne Endowed Chair, Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical and statistical models of perception and cognition, Bayesian mixed models, psychometrics.
Donald G. Saari, (Ph.D. Mathematics, Purdue University). NAS Member, Distinguished Research Professor of Mathematics and Economics, and Director Emeritus of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematics and application of dynamical systems to social sciences; decision theory.
Stergios Skaperdas, (Ph.D. Economics, Johns Hopkins University). Clifford S. Heinz Chair and Professor of Economics, and Director of Center for Global Peace and Conflict Studies, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Economic theory and political economy.
Greg Scontras, (Ph.D. Linguistics, Harvard University). Assistant Professor, Language Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Natural language semantics, computational models of language understanding, and heritage languages.
Brian Skyrms, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of Pittsburgh). NAS Member, Distinguished Professor of Social Sciences, Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science, and Professor of Economics, and Director of Salzburg Exchange Program, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Probability, induction, causation, rational choice.
Kenneth A. Small, (Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Berkeley). Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Urban, energy and transportation economics, econometrics.
Padhraic Smyth, (Ph.D. Computer Engineering, California Institute of Technology). Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Statistical pattern recognition, probabilistic learning, information theory, artificial intelligence, image and time- series modeling.
George Sperling, (Ph.D. Psychology, Harvard University). NAS Member, Distinguished Professor of Cognitive Sciences, and Department of Neurobiology and Behavior, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Human information processing, vision and visual perception, computer vision and image processing.
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Ramesh Srinivasan, (Ph.D. Biomedical Engineering, Tulane University). Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Perception, development and cortical dynamics.
Hal Stern, (Ph.D. Statistics, University of California, Irvine). Ted and Janice Smith Family Foundation Endowed Chair in Information and Computer Science, Professor of Information and Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Bayesian methods, model diagnostics, statistical computing.
Mark Steyvers, (Ph.D. Psychology, Indiana University). Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Computational models of memory, reasoning and perceptions.
Rein Taagepera, (Ph.D. Physics, University of Delaware). Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Quantitatively predictive models; electoral and party systems; Finno-Ugric area studies.
Tom Trogdon, (Ph.D. Applied Mathematics, University of Washington). Assistant Professor of Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Interaction between probability/random matrix theory and numerical analysis, Riemann-Hilbert problems, and applications of universality.
Carole Uhlaner, (Ph.D. Political Science, Harvard University). Professor of Political Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Rational actor models and statistical analyses of political behavior, especially participation and voting; decision theory; comparative politics.
Joachim Vandekerckhove, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Leuven, Belgium) Associate Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Response time modeling – Psychometrics- Computional methods – Bayesian statistics.
James Weatherall, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of California, Irvine). Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Philosophy of physics. Philosophy of space and time, philosophy of science, atomic, molecular, and optical physics (theory), mathematical physics.
Vijay Vazirani, (Ph.D. Computer Science, University of California, Berkeley). Distinguished Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Algorithmic problems in mathematical economics and game theory, design of efficient exact and approximation algorithms, computational complexity theory.
Douglas White, (Ph.D. Anthropology, Social Theory, University of Minnesota). Professor Emeritus of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: social networks, longitudinal social demography, cross cultural, quantitative methods. 50
Charles E. (Ted) Wright, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Michigan). Associate Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Motor processing and control, visual search, handwriting.
Jack Xin, (Ph.D. Courant Institute, New York University). Professor of Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Partial Differential Equations (PDE), Asymptotic Analysis, Scientific Computation, and their Applications in Fluid Dynamics, Voice Signal Processing, Biology, Nonlinear Optics and Geoscience.
John I. Yellott, (Ph.D. Psychology, Stanford University). Professor Emeritus of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, probabilistic choice models.
Hongkai Zhao, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Applied and computational mathematics with applications in physics, engineering, imaging science and computer vision.
Robert Forbes, (Ph.D. Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine). Project Scientist, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Applied studies of decision- making under uncertainty. Development of mathematical modeling and methodologies for risk assessment and group decision-making in large corporations.
A. Jameson, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of California, Irvine). Project Scientist, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: categorization behaviors; modeling concept formation for perceptual stimuli (e.g., the cognitive organization of color sensations and its relationship to linguistic classifiers); the development and breakdown of these cognitive functions; and optimum performance in tasks involving color-coding(s).
Tim Satalich, (Ph.D. Mathematical Psychology, John Hopkins University). Associate Researcher, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical modeling of human color vision processing. Development of statistical analysis methods for representing perceptual color space data.
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D. SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS
APPENDIX B SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS OF IMBS MEMBERS, 2018 - 2019
Michael Birnbaum
Birnbaum, M. H. (2018). Empirical evaluation of third-generation prospect theory. Theory and Decision, 84(1), 11-27. (published online June 6, 2017: DOI 10.1007/s11238-017-9607-y).
Birnbaum, M. H. (2018). Behavioral models of decision making under risk. In Raue, M., Lermer, E., & Streicher, B. (Eds.), Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Risk Analysis: Theory, Models and Applications (pp. 181-200), Berlin: Springer Verlag.
Birrnbaum, M. H., & Quispe-Torreblanca, E. G. (2018). TEMAP2.R: True and error model analysis program in R. Judgment and Decision Making, 13(5), 428-440.
Kontek, K., & Birnbaum, M. H. (2019). The impact of middle outcomes on lottery valuations. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 78, 30-44.
Jan K. Brueckner
Journal articles:
Slums in Brazil: Where Are They Located, Who Lives in Them, and Do They “Squeeze” the Formal Housing Market? (with Lucas Mation and Vanessa Nadalin), Journal of Housing Economics 44, 48-60 (June 2019).
Carter Butts
Alimpertis, Emmanouil; Markopoulou, Athina; Butts, Carter T.; and Psounis, Konstantinos. (2019). ``City-wide Signal Strength Maps: Prediction with Random Forests.'' Proceedings of the 2019 World Wide Web Conference (ACM WWW). DOI: 10.1145/3308558.3313726.
Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``A Dynamic Process Interpretation of the Sparse ERGM Reference Model.'' Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 43(1), 40--57. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.2018.1490737.
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Grazioli, Gianmarc; Martin, Rachel W.; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Comparative Exploratory Analysis of Intrinsically Disordered Protein Dynamics using Machine Learning and Network Analytic Methods.'' Frontiers in Molecular Biosciences, Biological Modeling and Simulation, 6(42). DOI: 10.3389/fmolb.2019.00042.
Grazioli, Gianmarc; Roy, Saswata; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Predicting Reaction Products and Automating Reactive Trajectory Characterization in Molecular Simulations with Support Vector Machines.'' Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 59(6), 2753-2764. DOI: 10.1021/acs.jcim.9b00134 [Cover article].
Grazioli, Gianmarc; Yu, Yue; Unhelkar, Megha H.; Martin, Rachel W.; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Network-based Classification and Modeling of Amyloid Fibrils.'' Journal of Physical Chemistry, B, 123(26), 5452-5462. DOI: 10.1021/acs.jpcb.9b03494 [See also the video at https://www.dropbox.com/s/plcznv1461x80vp/FibrilTopologyMovie.mp4?dl=0].
Olson, Michele K.; Sutton, Jeannette; Vos, Sarah C.; Prestley, Robert; Renshaw, Scott L.; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Build Community Before the Storm: The National Weather Service’s Social Media Engagement.'' Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, forthcoming.
Sutton, Jeannette; Renshaw, Scott L.; Vos, Sarah C.; Olson, Michele K.; Prestley, Robert C.; Gibson, C. Ben; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Getting the Word Out, Rain or Shine: The Impact of Message Features and Hazard Context on Message Passing Online.'' Weather, Climate, and Society, forthcoming.
Tillman, Balint; Markopoulou, Athina; Butts, Carter T.; Gjoka, Minas. (2019). ``2K+ Graph Construction Framework: Targeting Joint Degree Matrix and Beyond.'' IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking, forthcoming.
Vos, Sarah C.; Sutton, Jeannette; Gibson, C. Ben; Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Celebrity Cancer on Twitter: Mapping a Novel Opportunity for Cancer Prevention.'' Cancer Control, forthcoming.
Yu, Yue; Smith, Emma J.; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Retrospective Network Imputation from Life History Data: The Impact of Designs.'' Sociological Methodology, forthcoming.
Almquist, Zack W. and Butts, Carter T. (2018). ``Dynamic Network Analysis with Missing Data: Theory and Methods.'' Statistica Sinica, 28, 1245--1264. DOI: 10.5705/ss.202016.0108.
Duong, Vy T.; Unhelkar, Megha H.; Kelly, John E.; Kim, Suhn H.; Butts, Carter T.; and Martin, Rachel W. (2018). ``Protein Structure Networks Provide Insight into Active Site Flexibility in Esterase/Lipases from the Carnivorous Plant Drosera capensis.'' Integrative Biology, 10, 768--779. DOI: 10.1039/C8IB00140E.
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Jean-Paul Carvalho
“Advances in the Economics of Religion” co-edited with Sriya Iyer and Jared Rubin, Palgrave published 2019.
“Elite Identity and Political Accountability: A Tale of Ten Islands” (with Christian Dippel), Revise and resubmit The Economic Journal.
“Identity and Underrepresentation'' (with Bary Pradelski), released as working paper.
“Radicalization'' (with Michael Sacks), major revision of “The Economics of religious Communities: Social Integration, Discrimination and Radicalization”.
Charles Chubb
Chubb C, Chiao C-C, Ulmer, KM, Buresch K, Birk MA, Hanlon RT (2018) Dark scene elements strongly influence cuttlefish camouflage responses in visually cluttered environments, Vision Research 149:86-101 DOI: 10.1016/j.visres.2018.06.003.
Mednicoff S, Mejia S, Rashid AR, Chubb C (2018) Many listeners cannot discriminate major vs minor tone-scrambles regardless of presentation rate, J.Acoust.Soc.Am. 144(4), 2242–2255, https://doi.org/10.1121/1.5055990.
Sun P, Chubb C, Wright CE, Sperling G (2018) Concurrent grouping of colored dots by similarity and by dissimilarity: high-capacity, pre-conscious processing. In Press, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. Am.
Rodriguez-Cintron LM, Wright CE, Chubb C, Sperling G (2018) How can observers use perceived size? Centroid versus mean-size judgments. Journal of Vision, March 2019, Vol.19, 3. doi:10.1167/19.3.3.
Groulx K, Chubb C, Victor JD, Conte MM (2019) The features that control discrimination of anisodipole pair. In Press Vision Research.
Lu V, Wright CE, Chubb C, Sperling G (2019) Variation in Target and Distractor Heterogeneity Impacts performance in the Centroid Task. Journal of Vision, April 2019, Vol.19, 21. doi:10.1167/19.4.21.
David Eppstein
A. Biniaz, P. Bose, D. Eppstein, A. Maheshwari, P. Morin, and M. Smid. Spanning trees in multipartite geometric graphs. Algorithmica 80(11):3177–3191, 2018, doi:10.1007/s00453-017- 0375-4, arXiv:1611.01661.
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C. A. Duncan, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, S. G. Kobourov, and M. Löffler. Planar and poly-arc Lombardi drawings. Journal of Computational Geometry 9(1):328–355, 2018, doi:10.7155/jgaa.00457. Special issue on Graph Drawing Beyond Planarity.
O. Aichholzer, M. Biro, E. D. Demaine, M. L. Demaine, D. Eppstein, S. P. Fekete, A. Hesterberg, I. Kostitsyna, and C. Schmidt. Folding polyominoes into (poly)cubes. Int. J. Computational Geometry & Applications 28(3):197–226, 2018, doi:10.1142/S0218195918500048, arXiv:1712.09317.
D. Eppstein. Edge bounds and degeneracy of triangle-free penny graphs and squaregraphs. J. Graph Algorithms & Applications 22(3):483–499, 2018, doi:10.7155/jgaa.00463. Special issue for GD 2017.
D. Eppstein. The effect of planarization on width. J. Graph Algorithms & Applications 22(3):461– 481, 2018, doi:10.7155/jgaa.00468. Special issue for GD 2017.
M. J. Bannister and D. Eppstein. Crossing minimization for 1-page and 2-page drawings of graphs with bounded treewidth. J. Graph Algorithms & Applications 22(4):577–606, 2018, doi:10.7155/jgaa.00479.
A. Biniaz, P. Bose, K. Crosbie, J.-L. De Carufel, D. Eppstein, A. Maheshwari, and M. Smid. Maximum plane trees in multipartite geometric graphs. Algorithmica 81(4):1512–1534, 2019, doi:10.1007/s00453-018-0482-x.
M. J. Bannister, W. E. Devanny, V. Dujmovic ́, D. Eppstein, and D. R. Wood. Track layouts, layered path decompositions, and leveled planarity. Algorithmica 81(4):1561–1583, 2019, doi:10.1007/s00453-018-0487-5.
M. T. de Berg, S. Cabello Justo, O. S. Cheong, D. Eppstein, and C. Knauer. Covering many points with a small-area box. Journal of Computational Geometry 10(1):207–222, 2019, doi:10.1007/s00453-018-0482-x, arXiv:1612.02149.
D. Eppstein. Realization and connectivity of the graphs of origami flat foldings. Journal of Computational Geometry 10(1):257–280, 2019, doi:10.20382/jocg.v10i1a10.
D. Eppstein. Faster evaluation of subtraction games. Proc. 9th Int. Conf. Fun with Algorithms (FUN 2018), pp. 20:1–20:12. Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 100, 2018, doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.FUN.2018.20, arXiv:1804.06515.
D. Eppstein. Making change in 2048. Proc. 9th Int. Conf. Fun with Algorithms (FUN 2018), pp. 21:1–21:13. Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 100, 2018,doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.FUN.2018.21, arXiv:1804.07396.
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G. Barequet, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, and N. Mamano. Stable-matching Voronoi diagrams: combinatorial complexity and algorithms. Proc. 45th International Colloquium on Automata, Languages, and Programming, pp. 89:1–89:14.
Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 107, 2018, doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.ICALP.2018.89, arXiv:1804.09411.
J. J. Besa Vial, W. E. Devanny, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, and T. U. Johnson. Optimally sorting evolving data. Proc. 45th International Colloquium on Automata, Languages, and Programming, pp. 81:1–81:13.
Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 107, 2018, doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.ICALP.2018.81, arXiv:1805.03350.
J. Cardinal, E. D. Demaine, D. Eppstein, R. A. Hearn, and A. Winslow. Reconfiguration of satisfying assignments and subset sums: Easy to find, hard to connect. Proc. 24th International Computing and Combinatorics Conference (COCOON 2018), pp. 365–377. Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 10976, 2018, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-94776-1_31, arXiv:1805.04055.
D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, J. Jorgensen, and M. Torres. Geometric fingerprint matching via oriented point-set pattern matching. Proc. 30th Canadian Conference on Computational Geometry (CCCG 2018), pp. 98–113, 2018, https://www.cs.umanitoba.ca/~cccg2018/papers/session3A- p3.pdf.
G. Da Lozza, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, and S. Gupta. Subexponential-time and FPT algorithms for embedded flat clustered planarity. Proc. 44th International Workshop on Graph- Theoretic Concepts in Computer Science (WG 2018), pp. 111–124. Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 11159, 2018, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-00256-5_10, arXiv:1803.05465.
D. Eppstein and E. Havvaei. Parameterized leaf power recognition via embedding into graph products. Proc. 13th International Symposium on Parameterized and Exact Computation (IPEC 2018), pp. 16:1–16:14. Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 115, 2018, doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.IPEC.2018.16.
D. Eppstein and D. Lokshtanov. The parameterized complexity of finding point sets with hereditary properties. Proc. 13th International Symposium on Parameterized and Exact Computation (IPEC 2018), pp. 11:1–11:14. Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 115, 2018, doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.IPEC.2018.11.
D. Eppstein. Realization and connectivity of the graphs of origami flat foldings. Proc. 26th Int. Symp. Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2018), pp. 541–554. Springer-Verlag,
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Lecture Notes in Computer Science 11282, 2018, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-04414-5_38, arXiv:1808.06013.
D. Eppstein and B. Reed. Finding maximal sets of laminar 3-separators in planar graphs in linear time. Proc. 30th ACM-SIAM Symp. Discrete Algorithms, San Diego, California, 2019, pp. 589– 605, 2019, doi:10.1137/1.9781611975482.37, arXiv:1810.07825.
D. Eppstein. Which women mathematicians get written about on Wikipedia, and why. AWM Newsletter 48(4):12–14, 2018.
Steve Frank a. Invariance and pattern
Frank, S. A. and Bascompte, J. 2019. Invariance in ecological pattern. bioRxiv doi:10.1101/673590. (abstract, preprint)
Frank, S. A. 2019. The common patterns of abundance: the log series and Zipf's law. F1000Research 8:334. (abstract, reprint, doi)
Frank, S. A. 2019. How to understand common patterns in big data: the case of human collective memory. Behavioral Sciences 9:40. (abstract, reprint, doi)
b. Unification of fundamental equations in science; natural selection
Frank, S. A. 2018. The Price equation program: simple invariances unify population dynamics, thermodynamics, probability, information and inference. Entropy 20:978. (abstract, reprint)
Frank, S. A. and Fox, G. A. 2019. The inductive theory of natural selection. Pages 000-000 in The Theory of Evolution, S. M. Scheiner and D. P. Mindell, eds. University of Chicago Press. (preprint) c. Other
Frank, S. A. and Schmid-Hempel, P. 2019. Evolution of negative immune regulators. PLoS Pathogens (in press). (abstract, preprint)
Frank, S. A. Evolutionary design of regulatory control. II. 2019. Robust error-correcting feedback increases genetic and phenotypic variability. Journal of Theoretical Biology 468:72-81. (abstract, reprint, doi)
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Frank, S. A. Evolutionary design of regulatory control. I. 2019. A robust control theory analysis of tradeoffs. Journal of Theoretical Biology 463:121-137. (abstract, reprint, doi)
Michelle Garfinkel
Arming and Fighting as Commitment Problems: How Insecurity and Destruction Matter," PUBLIC CHOICE, vol. 178 (March 2019) with Constantinos Syropoulos.
Ami Glazer
Glazer, Amihai, Refael Hassin, and Liron Ravner (2018) “A strategic model of job arrivals to a single machine with earliness and tardiness penalties.” IISE Transactions, 50(4): 265-278.
Glazer, Amihai, Rune Jansen Hagen, and Jorn Rattso (2018) “Help not needed? Optimal quotas for expatriate NGO workers.” Review of International Economics, 26: 302-321.
Blondiau, Thomas, Amihai Glazer, and Stef Proost (2018) “Air traffic control regulation with union bargaining in Europe.” Economics of Transportation, 13: 48-60.
Terai, Kimiko, and Amihai Glazer (2018) “Rivalry among agents seeking large budgets.” Journal of Theoretical Politics, 30(4): 388-409.
Terai, Kimiko, and Amihai Glazer (2019) “Why principals tolerate biases of inaccurate agents.” Economics and Politics, 31(1): 97-111.
Bernie Grofman
(1) Redistricting and voting rights: In addition to my role as a Special Master in a racial gerrymandering case in Virginia and an Amicus Brief in the Supreme Court, I have four new publications in the area of redistricting and voting rights.
(a) Miller, Peter and Bernard Grofman. 2018. Public Hearings and Congressional Redistricting: Evidence from the Western United States 2011-2012. Election Law Journal.
(b) Grofman, Bernard. 2018. Crafting a Judicially Manageable Standard for Partisan Gerrymandering: Five Necessary Elements. Election Law Journal.
(c) Grofman, Bernard and Jonathan Cervas, 2018. Can State Courts Save Us from Partisan Gerrymandering? Election Law Journal.
(d) Grofman, Bernard. Forthcoming. Partisan Gerrymandering Post-Gill. Election Law Journal. 58
(2) Parties and elections
(a) Troumpounis, Orestis, Dimitrios Xefteris, and Bernard Grofman. 2018. Electoral competition with primaries and quality asymmetries. Journal of Politics.
(b) Tan, Netina and Bernard Grofman. Forthcoming. Electoral Rules and Manufacturing a Legislative Supermajority: Evidence from Singapore. Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Studies.
(c) Merrill, Samuel III and Bernard Grofman. Forthcoming. What are the Effects of Entry of New Extremist Parties on the Policy Platforms of Mainstream Parties? Journal of Theoretical Politics.
(d) Andre Blais, Shaun Bowler, and Bernard Grofman. Forthcoming. Electoral and Party Systems in the U.S. and Canada. In Paul Quirk (ed.) Comparing the U.S. and Canada (title tentative). Oxford University Press.
(e) Brunell, Thomas and Bernard Grofman. 2018. Research Note: Using U.S. Senate Delegations from the Same State as Paired Comparisons: Evidence for a Reagan Realignment, PS.
(f) Grofman, Bernard. Forthcoming. Electoral Systems. In Bertrand Badie, Dirk Berg-Schlosser and Leonardo Morlino (Eds.) International Handbook of Political Science, 2nd Edition. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA.
(3) My recent work on constitutional design has focused on the Electoral College.
(a) Cervas, Jonathan and Bernard Grofman. 2017. Why noncompetitive states are so important for understanding the outcomes of competitive elections: The Electoral College 1868-2016. Public Choice. 173 (3-4): 251-265.
(b) Cervas, Jonathan R, and Bernard Grofman. 2019. Are Presidential Inversions Inevitable? Comparing Eight Counterfactual Rules for Electing the US President. Social Sciences Quarterly 100(4): 1322-1335.
(4) With a graduate student, Hannah Kim, I have been looking at the use of Google Scholar in political science and at patterns of promotion and job mobility within the discipline.
(a) Kim, Hannah and Bernard Grofman. 2019. Research Note: The Political Science 400. PS. 59
(b) Kim, Hannah and Bernard Grofman. 2019. Research Note: Job Mobility, Tenure, and Promotions in Political Science Ph.D. Granting Departments, 2002-2017: Cohort, Gender and Citation Count Effects
Simon Huttegger
Simon M. Huttegger (2019): Analogical Predictive Probabilities. Mind 128: 1-37.
Simon M. Huttegger, Hannah Rubin, Kevin J. S. Zollman (accepted). Invariance and Symmetry in Evolutionary Dynamics. American Philosophical Quarterly.
Marek Kaminski
“Spoiler Effects in Proportional Representation Systems: Evidence from Eight Polish Parliamentary Elections, 1991-2015.” Public Choice, 2018. Polish translation: Decyzje 30, pp. 5- 31, 2018.
“Modeling rationality: How 20th century mathematics changed the understanding and modeling of social rationality.” Culture of Modelling in Science (special issue of Dissertationes Methodologiae). Forthcoming.
“Backward Induction: Merits and Flaws.” In Haman, J., Poleszczuk, J. (Eds.) Formal Models in Social Sciences (special issue of Studies in Logic, Grammar and Rhetoric) (Vol. 50, pp. 9-24). De Gruyter. (2017).
Book: (2019). Janosik Podlaski. Józefa Koryckiego prywatna wojna z komunizmem, with Ernest Szum, 2019, Oficyna Naukowa, Warsaw (pp. 220) (in Polish).
Book Reviews: (2017 The Abilene Paradox and Other Meditations on Management, by Harvey, J. B., Decisions (in Polish).
Some thoughts on Michael Chwe’s Jane Austen, Game Theorist”, 2018, Decyzje 30, pp. 63-74. Book by Chwe published by Princeton University Press, 2014.
L. Robin Keller
L. Robin Keller, Jay Simon (Merage PhD alumnus), January 2019,“Preference Functions for Spatial Risk Analysis”, Risk Analysis, 39(1), pp. 244-256, in Special Issue: Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis, accepted 7-31-17, submitted 6-2016, Version of Record appeared online in early 60
view prior to print: Sept. 7, 2017,: Abstract Article PDF(1822K). In print in Volume 39, Issue1, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12892.
When outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be assessed and applied.
James Leonhardt (Merage PhD alumnus, at Univ. of Nevada, Reno), L. Robin Keller, Fall 2018, "Do Pictographs Affect Probability Comprehension and Risk Perception of Multiple-Risk Communications?" Journal of Consumer Affairs, 52(3), pp. 756-769, accepted 12-22-17, published in Early View on 4-6-2018, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/joca.12185, Leonhardt-Keller- JOCA-Final.
Pictographs can be used to visually present probabilistic information using a matrix of icons. Previous research on pictographs has focused on single rather than multiple-risk options. The present research conducts a behavioral experiment to assess the effect of pictographs on probability comprehension and risk perception for single and multiple-risk options. The creation of the experimental stimuli is informed by a review of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s vaccine information sheets. The results provide initial evidence that, in the context of childhood vaccines, the inclusion of pictographs alongside numeric (e.g. 1 in 5) probability information can result in higher probability comprehension and lower risk perception for multiple- risk options but not for single-risk options. These findings have implications for how health- related risks are communicated to the public.
Partially funded by a fellowship (Leonhardt) from the Newkirk Center for Science and Society and conducted under UCI Institutional Review Board’s approved research protocol HS# 2009- 7037.
Cristina del Campo (Merage visitor in 2019 and 2016, Universidad Complutense de Madrid), Jiaru Bai (UCI Merage PhD alumna, Wake Forest Assistant Professor), L. Robin Keller, “Comparing Markov and non-Markov Alternatives for Cost-effectiveness Analysis: Insights from a Cervical Cancer Case”, Operations Research for Health Care. Accepted 4-1-2019, posted online 4-3-19 prior to final proof edits: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211692318301097#!
Markov models allow medical prognosis to be modeled with health state transitions over time and are particularly useful for decisions regarding diseases where uncertain events and outcomes may occur. To provide sufficient detail for operations researchers to carry out a Markov analysis, we present a detailed example of a Markov model with five health states with monthly transitions with stationary transition probabilities between states to model the cost and effectiveness of two 61
treatments for advanced cervical cancer A different approach uses survival curves to directly model the fraction of patients in each state at each time period without the Markov property. We use this alternative method to analyze the cervical cancer case and compare the Markov and non- Markov approaches. These models provide useful insights about both the effectiveness of treatments and the associated costs for healthcare decision makers.
Jeffery L. Guyse (Merage alumnus, Technology and Operations Management, College of Business Administration, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, California 91768, [email protected]), L. Robin Keller, Candice H. Huynh (Merage alumna, Cal Poly, Pomona, [email protected]), “Valuing Sequences of Lives Lost or Saved Over Time: Preference for Uniform Sequences”, forthcoming, Decision Analysis, accepted June 5, 2019. Author accepted version dated May 20, 2019.
Policymakers often make decisions involving human mortality risks and monetary outcomes that span across different time periods and horizons. Many projects or environmental regulation policies involving risks to life, such as toxic exposures, are experienced over time. The preferences of individuals on lives lost or saved over time should be understood to implement effective policies. Using a within-subject survey design, we investigated our participants’ elicited preferences (in the form of ratings) for sequences of lives saved or lost over time at the participant level. The design of our study allowed us to directly observe the possible preference patterns of Negative Time Discounting or a Preference for Spreading from the responses. Additionally, we embedded factors associated with three other prevalent anomalies of intertemporal choice (Gain/Loss Asymmetry, Short/Long Asymmetry, and the Absolute Magnitude Effect) into our study for control. We find that our participants exhibit three of the anomalies: Preference for Spreading, Absolute Magnitude Effect and Short/Long Term Asymmetry. Furthermore, fitting the data collected, Loewenstein and Prelec’s model for the valuation of sequences of outcomes allowed for a more thorough understanding of the factors influencing the individual participants’ preferences. Based on the results, the standard discounting model does not accurately reflect the value that some people place on sequences of mortality outcomes. Preferences for uniform sequences should be considered in policymaking, rather than applying the standard discounting model.
Working paper: Jay Simon (American University associate professor and Merage PhD alumnus), Don Saari (former UCI IMBS Director), L. Robin Keller, “Interdependent Altruistic Utility Models".
Michael Lee
Lee, M.D., & Vanpaemel, W. (2018). Determining informative priors for cognitive models. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 114-127. Okada, K., Vandekerckhove, J. & Lee, M.D. (2018). Modeling when people quit: Bayesian censored geometric models with hierarchical and latent-mixture extensions. Behavior Research Methods, 50, 406-415. 62
Guan, H., & Lee, M.D. (2018). The effect of goals and environments on human performance in optimal stopping problems. Decision, 5, 339-361.
Steingroever, H., Pachur, T., Smira, M., & Lee, M.D. (2018). Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision makers. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 951–970.
Lee, M.D., Danileiko, I., & Vi, J. (2018). Testing the ability of the surprisingly popular method to predict NFL games. Judgment and Decision Making,13, 322-333. Lee, M.D. (2018). Bayesian methods for analyzing true-and-error models. Judgment and Decision Making, 13, 622-635.
Lee, M.D. (2019). A simple and flexible Bayesian method for inferring step changes in cognition. Behavior Research Methods, 51, 948-960.
Lee, M.D., Gluck, K.A., & Walsh, M.M. (in press). Understanding the complexity of simple decisions: Modeling multiple behaviors and switching strategies. Decision. Accepted 04-Jan- 2019.
Lee, M.D., Doering, S., & Carr. A. (in press). A model for understanding recognition validity. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 8-Jan-2019.
Steingroever, H., Jepma, M., Lee, M.D., Jansen, B.R.J., & Huizenga, H.M. (in press). Modeling decision strategies in the developmental sciences. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 9- Jan-2019.
Villarreal, M., Velázquez, C. A., Baroja, J. L., Segura, A., Bouzas, A., & Lee, M.D. (in press). Bayesian methods applied to the generalized matching law. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior. Accepted 15-Jan-2019.
Mistry, P., & Lee, M.D. (in press). Violence in the intifada: A demonstration of Bayesian generative cognitive modeling.Advances in Econometrics. Accepted 1-Feb-2019.
Lee, M. D., Criss, A. H., Devezer, B., Donkin, C., Etz, A., Leite, F. P., Matzke, D., Rouder, J.N., Trueblood, J.S., White, C.N., & Vandekerckhove, J. (in press). Robust modeling in cognitive science. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 28-Mar-2019.
Michael McBride
M. McBride, forthcoming, “Spatial Models of Religious Market Competition: A Critical Assessment,” in J.P. Carvalho, S. Iyer, J. Rubin, eds., Advances in the Economics of Religion, International Economics Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan. 63
T. Chen, M. McBride, M. Short, 2019, “Dynamics of Religious Group Growth and Survival,” Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 58: 67-92.
Andrew Noymer
Race and life expectancy in the United States in the Great Depression. Tim A. Bruckner, Ashley M. Ima, Trang T. Nguyen, and Andrew Noymer Genus accepted (2019).
The geometry of mortality change: Convex hulls for demographic analysis. Audrey F. Lai, Andrew Noymer, and Tsuio Tai Revue Quételet/Quetelet Journal 7(1):27–70 (2019).
Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis mortality, United States, 1979–2016: Vaccine-induced declines in SSPE deaths. Lia B. Pallivathucal and Andrew Noymer Vaccine 36(35):5222–5225 (2018).
Lisa Pearl
Pearl, L. & Sprouse, J. Under revision. The acquisition of linking theories: A Tolerance Principle approach to deriving UTAH and rUTAH. Language Acquisition. lingbuzz: https://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/ 004088 .
Pearl, L. Under review. Poverty of the Stimulus Without Tears. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review. lingbuzz: https://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/004646.
Pearl, L. In press. Modeling syntactic acquisition. In J. Sprouse (ed.), Oxford Handbook of Experimental Syntax. lingbuzz: http://lingbuzz.auf.net/lingbuzz/003416 [downloaded 623 times as of 6/26/19].
Vogler, N. & Pearl, L. In press. Using linguistically-defined specific details to detect deception across domains. Natural Language Engineering.
Pearl, L. In press. Leveraging monolingual developmental techniques to better understand heritage languages. Bilingualism: Language & Cognition. lingbuzz: https://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/ 004568
Pearl, L. & Sprouse, J. In press. Comparing solutions to the linking problem using an integrated quantitative framework of language acquisition. Language. lingbuzz: https://ling.auf. net/ lingbuzz/ 003913.
Bates, A. & Pearl, L. 2019. *What do you think that happens? A quantitative and cognitive modeling analysis of linguistic evidence across socioeconomic status for learning syntactic islands. In Proceedings of the 43rd annual Boston University Conference on Language Development, Somerville, MA: Cascadilla Press. 64
Nguyen, E. & Pearl, L. 2019. Using Developmental Modeling to Specify Learning and Representation of the Passive in English Children. In Proceedings of the 43rd annual Boston University Conference on Language Development, Somerville, MA: Cascadilla Press.
Pearl, L. 2019. Fusion is great, and interpretable fusion could be exciting for theory generation.Perspectives section of Language, 95(1), e109-114. lingbuzz: https://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/004142. doi: 10.1353/lan.2019.0002.
Zyg Pizlo
Fleischer, P., Helie, S. & Pizlo, Z. (2018) The role of problem representation in producing near- optimal TSP tours. Journal of Problem Solving 11, 1-12.
Jayadevan, V., Sawada, T., Delp, E. & Pizlo, Z. (2018) Perception of 3D symmetrical and nearly symmetrical shapes. Symmetry 10, 344 (doi: 10.3390/sym10080344).
Pizlo, Z. (2019) Unifying physics and psychophysics on the basis of symmetry, least-action simplicity principle, and conservation laws veridicality. American Journal of Psychology 132, 1-25.
Don Saari
Books:
Mathematics of Finance: An Intuitive Introduction, Springer, September 2019.
Coordinate Systems for Games, with D. Jessie, Birkhauser, 2020.
Papers:
From paired comparisons and cycles to Arrow's Theorem, Chap. 4 in Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, Oxford University Press, Vol. 1, ed. R. Congleton, B. Grofman, S. Voigt, 2018. 83-103.
Discovering aggregation properties via voting, Vol. 2, New Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, ed. W. Batchelder, H. Colonius, E. Dzhafarov, Cambridge University Press, 271- 320.
Arrow, and unexpected consequences of his theorem, Public Choice, (179) (2019), 133-144.
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Stergios Skaperdas
McBride, Michael, Skaperdas, Stergios, and Tsai, Pi-Han, “Why Go to Court? Bargaining Failure under the Shadow of Trial with Complete Information,” European Journal of Political Economy, December 2018, 55, 151-168.
Skaperdas, Stergios and Vaidya, Samarth, “Contested Political Persuasion,” Ch. 33 in Congleton, R., Grofman, B. and Voigt, S. (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, 2019, Oxford University Press.
Skaperdas, Stergios and Vaidya, Samarth, “Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?,” forthcoming in Public Choice.
Gregory Scontras
Degen, Judith, Andreas Trotzke, Gregory Scontras, Eva Wittenberg, and Noah D. Good- man. 2019. Definitely, maybe: A new experimental paradigm for investigating the prag- matics of evidential devices across languages. Journal of Pragmatics 140, 33–48. doi:10.1016/j.pragma.2018.11.015.
Rosales, Cesar Manuel, Jr., and Gregory Scontras. On the role of conjunction in adjective ordering preferences. Proceedings of the Linguistic Society of America 32:1–12.
Samonte, Suttera, and Gregory Scontras. Adjective ordering in Tagalog: A cross-linguistic comparison of subjectivity-based preferences. Proceedings of the Linguistic Society of Amer- ica 33:1–13.
Scontras, Gregory, Judith Degen, and Noah D. Goodman. On the grammatical source of adjective ordering preferences. To appear in Semantics and Pragmatics.
Polinsky, Maria, and Gregory Scontras. Understanding heritage languages. To appear in Bilingualism: Language and Cognition.
Brian Skyrms
Ultilitarianism from the Perspective of Modern Psychology, Louis Narens and Brian Skyrms, Oxford Publishing, 2018.
Hal Stern
Risbrough, V.B., Glynn, L.M., Davis, E.P., Sandman, C.A., Obenaus, A., Stern, H.S., Keator, D.B., Yassa, M.A., Baram, T.Z., and Baker, D.G. (2018) “Does Anhedonia Presage Increased
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Risk of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder?” Current Topics in Behavioral Neurosciences, 38, 249- 266. https://doi.org/10.1007/7854_2018_51. Stern, H. S., Blower, D., Cohen, M.L., Czeisler, C.A., Dinges, D.F., Greenhouse, J.B., Guo, F., Hanowski, R.J., Hartenbaum, N.P., Krueger, G.P., Mallis, M.M., Pain, R.F., Rizzo, M., Sinha, E., Small, D.S., Stuart, E.A., Wegman, D.H. (2019) “Data and Methods for Studying Commercial Motor Vehicle Driver Fatigue, Highway Safety and Long-Term Driver Health,” Accident Analysis & Prevention, 126, 37-42. (Epub 2018 Feb 22). Glynn, L.M., Stern, H.S., Howland, M.A., Risbrough, V.B., Baker, D.G., Nievergelt, C.M., Baram, T.Z., and Davis, E.P. (2019) “Measuring Novel Antecedents of Mental Illness: The Questionnaire of Unpredictability in Childhood,” Neuropsychopharmacology, 44, 876-882. (Epub 2018 Nov 23) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41386-018-0280-9. Vegetabile, B.V., Stout-Oswald, S.A., Davis, E.P., Baram, T.Z., Stern, H.S. (2019) “Estimating the Entropy Rate of Finite Markov Chains with Application to Behavior Studies,” Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 44(3), 282-308. (Epub 2019 Jan 30) https://doi.org/10.3102/1076998618822540. Jiang, S., Kamei, N., Bolton, J.L., Ma, X., Stern, H.S., Baram,T.Z., Mortazavi, A. (2019) “Intra- individual Methylomics Detects the Impact of Early-life Adversity,” Life Science Alliance, Epub 2019 Apr 1. https://doi.org/10.26508/lsa.201800204. Rein Taagepera
Oliver Nahkur and R. Taagepera, 2019. Was Pinker on the right track? The speed of recent decline in violence and gender inequality. Comparative Sociology 18:2:148-172.
R. Taagepera, 2018. Science walks on two legs, but social sciences try to hop on one. International Political Science Review 34:1:145-159.
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E. TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES
APPENDIX C IMBS TECHNICAL REPORTS, 2018 - 2019
MBS 19-01 With potential games; which outcome is better Santiago Guisasola and Donald G. Saari
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F. FACULTY PRESENTATIONS
APPENDIX D COLLOQUIA AND CONFERENCES OF IMBS MEMBERS, 2018 - 2019
Michael Birnbaum
Birnbaum, M. H., & Quispe-Torreblanca, E. G. (2018). To err is human, but a human error is nothing to what a computer can do. 56th Annual Edwards Bayesian Research Conference, Fullerton, CA. March 2, 2018.
Birnbaum, M. H. (2018). True and error models for testing algebraic models in the presence of error. Mathematical Psychology Meetings, Madison, WI. July, 2018.
Birnbaum, M. H. (2018). Testing models of decision making in the presence of error: A new extension of true and error theory. Conference on Decision Sciences, Konstanz, Germany. September 27, 2018.
Jan K. Brueckner
International
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, March 2019 (three lectures supported by US Embassy visitors program).
Air Transport Research Society conference, Seoul, July 2018 (keynote speaker).
ITEA Conference on Transportation Economics, Hong Kong, July 2018.
Domestic
UCLA-UCI-USC Urban and Real Estate Research Day, USC, April 2019. California State University, Long Beach, March 2019.
UC Center, Sacramento, February 2019.
American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Meetings, Atlanta, January 2019.
Conference on Regional and Urban Economics (CURE), Philadelphia, November 2018.
Urban Economics Association meetings, New York, October 2018.
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5rd Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Research Conference, World Bank, September 2018.
Carter Butts
Invited Talks
Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Better Baselines for Social (and Other) Network Models.'' Invited Lecture, Statistics Colloquium, University of California-Riverside. Riverside, CA.
Butts, Carter T. (5/2019). ``Advances in Exponential Family Random Graph Modeling: Parameterization, Assessment, and Understanding.'' Invited Presentation, 20th Anniversary Conference of the Center for Statistics in the Social Sciences, University of Washington. Seattle, WA.
Butts, Carter T. (5/2019). ``Large Scale Network Structure, Ecological Disruption, and Network Dynamics.'' Invited Presentation, Workshop on Multi-scale Theory on Coupled Human Mobility and Environmental Change, University of Floria. Gainesville, FL.
Conference Presentations
Sutton, Jeannette; Renshaw, Scott L.; Gardner, Richard E. III; Olson, Michele K.; Prestley, Robert; Vos, Sarah C.; Gibson, C. Ben; Yu, Yue; and Butts, Carter T. (7/2019). ``Social Media Engagement Strategies and Message Retransmission Across Threat Contexts.'' Natural Hazards Workshop, Broomfield, CO.
Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Contact-formation Mechanisms for ERGM Reference Measures with Local Dependence.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.
Gardner, Richard E. III and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Humans vs. Bots: Fake News Bot Analysis from Twitter Hazard Data.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.
Lee, Francis and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Modeling Group Boundary Maintenance in ERGMs.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.
Phillips, Nolan; Yin, Fan; and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``A New HOPE: Held-Out Predictive Evaluation (HOPE) for Exponential Family Random Graph Models.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.
Renshaw, Scott L.; Yu, Yue; Olson, Michele K.; Prestley, Robert; Sutton, Jeannette; and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``From Experimental to Supplemental: The Evolution of NWS’ Use of
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Twitter for Hazard Communication.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.
Sutton, Jeannette; Renshaw, Scott L.; Vos, Sarah C.; Olson, Michele K.; Prestley, Robert; and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Longitudinal Engagement and Audience Attention: Message Contents and Features that Get Passed On.'' 47th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology, American Meteorological Association, San Diego, CA.
Grazioli, Gianmarc; Yu, Yue; Unhelkar, Megha H.; Martin, Rachel W.; and Butts, Carter T. (5/2019). ``Network Hamiltonians for Modeling Amyloid Fibril Formation.'' SoCal Theoretical Chemistry Conference, Los Angeles, CA.
Grazioli, Gianmarc; Yu, Yue; Unhelkar, Megha H.; Martin, Rachel W.; Butts, Carter T. (3/2019). ``Network-based Modeling of Amyloid Fibril Formation.'' Biophysical Society Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD.
Unhelkar, Megha H.; Duong, Vy T.; Grazioli, Gianmarc; Kelly, John E.; Yu, Yue; Butts, Carter T.; and Martin, Rachel W. (3/2019). ``Protein Discovery and Characterization Using Molecular Modeling.'' Biophysical Society Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD.
Butts, Carter T. (12/2018). ``Predicting Potential Pathways of Network Change from Distributional Models.'' 2nd North American Social Networks Meeting, Washington, DC.
Lee, Francis; and Butts, Carter T. (12/2018). ``Modeling Stigma in ERGMs.'' 2nd North American Social Networks Meeting, Washington, DC.
Smith, Emily; Butts, Carter T.; Hipp, John; and Nagle, Nicholas N. (12/2018). ``The Multiplexity and Locality of Job Lead Ties.'' 2nd North American Social Networks Meeting, Washington, DC.
Yu, Yue; Grazioli, Giamarc; Phillips, Nolan; and Butts, Carter T. (12/2018). ``Local Graph Stability in Exponential Family Random Graph Models.'' 2nd North American Social Networks Meeting, Washington, DC.
Thomas, Loring and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Entry and Exit Dynamics using Generalized Location Systems and TERGM.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.
Yin, Fan and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Approximate Bayesian Computation for ERGMs via Copula Model.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.
Bierma, Jan; Kelly, John E.; Payne, Brooke; Kim, Suhn H.; Butts, Carter T.; and Martin, Rachel W. (8/2018). ``Darwin's Ferment: Droserasins and Nepenthesins from the Drosera capensis Genome.'' International Carnivorous Plant Society Meeting, Santa Rosa, CA. 71
Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``A Dynamic Process Interpretation of the Sparse ERGM Reference Model.'' ASA Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.
Lee, Francis; Krivitsky, Pavel; and Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``Extending the Ranked Exponential Random Graph Modeling Framework to Network Data from Subjective Ratings.'' ASA Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.
Phillips, Nolan and Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``Held-Out Predictive Evaluation (HOPE) of Exponential Family Random Graph Models.'' ASA Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.
Smith, Emily J; Hipp, John R.; Nagle, Nicholas N.; and Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``Spatial and Social Embeddedness of Emergency Contact Ties.'' ASA Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.
Unhelkar, Megha H.; Zhang, Xuhong; Kelly, John E.; Duong, Vy; Bierma, Jan; Roskamp, Kyle W.; Tair, Seemal; Kaosoluchi, N. Enendu; Frietes, J. Alfredo; Martin, Rachel W.; and Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``Enzyme Discovery from the Drosera capensis Genome.'' International Carnivorous Plant Society Meeting, Santa Rosa, CA.
Jean-Paul Carvalho
“The Economics of religious Communities: Social Integration, Discrimination and Radicalization”, CEPR Conference on The Economics of Religion, Venice, June 2019.
“Norms of Identity”, ERINN Workshop on Social Norms, Oxford, June 2019.
“Identity and Underrepresentation'', ThReD Conference, Notre Dame, May 2019.
“Identity and Underrepresentation'', Department of Economics seminar series, University of Oregon, March 2019.
“Identity and Underrepresentation'', IMBS Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms, UC Irvine, March 2019.
“Identity and Underrepresentation'', ASREC Annual Conference, Boston, March 2019.
Charles Chubb
Comishen KJ, Wong-Kee-You AM, Chubb C, & Adler SA (Paper to be presented by KJ Comishen at the 21st International Congress of Infant Studies, July 2018, Philadelphia) Bimodal distribution of performance in discriminating major/minor modes in 6-month-old infants.
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Chen C-C, Hsiao YL, Chubb C (talk presented by C-C Chen at the annual meeting of the Vision Sciences Society, St Petersburg, FL, May 18, 2019) Extracting image statistics by human and machine observers.
David Eppstein
"Stable-matching Voronoi diagrams", invited plenary talk, 21st Japan Conf. Discrete & Computational Geometry, Graphs, and Games, Manila, Philippines, September 2018.
Steve Frank
Mitochondria and male disease; somatic mosaicism; infective dose, Invited Keynote for graduate student symposium, Theoretical Biology Research retreat Keynote, October 2018
Mitochondria and male disease; somatic mosaicism; infective dose, Invited Keynote for graduate student symposium, EAWAG/ETH Zürich, November 2018
Mitochondria and male disease; somatic mosaicism; infective dose, Headline Seminar Series in Ecology & Evolution, University of Zürich, February 2019
Mitochondria and male disease; somatic mosaicism; infective dose, University of Basel, February 2019
Three conjectures on organismal design, Osnabrück, Germany, May 2019
Ami Glazer
“Factors Determining Plant Locations and Plant Survival” 2019 Public Choice Society Annual Meetings, March 14-16, Louisville KY
Simon Huttegger
“Rethinking Convergence to the Truth,” Seminar on Logic Probability, and Games, Columbia University, April 2019
“Generalized Learning and Conditional Expectation,” Caltech, April 2019
“Rethinking Convergence to the Truth”, Salzburg-Irvine-Munich Workshop, Munich, March 2019
“The Problem of Dishonest Signaling”, Workshop on Signaling at NeurIPS, Montreal, December 2018
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“Gregory Kavka on Moral Paradoxes of Nuclear Deterrence”, Symposium on The Nuclear Threat in the 21s Century, Center for Global Peace and Conflict Studies, UCI, October 2018
“Kolmogorov Conditioning and Radical Probabilism”, 2018 PSA Meeting, Seattle, November 2018
Kimberly A. Jameson
Jameson, K. A. (2018). “Modeling color vision in relation to individual color perception and photopigment opsin genotypes .” Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences Colloquium series, May 31, 2018.
Jameson, K. A. (2018). “Color perception in tetrachromatic genotypes.” Invited Color Vision Colloquium. University of Reno, Nevada, November 13, 2018.
Jameson, K. A. (2019). “Visual Processing Phenotypes and Photopigment Opsin Genetics.” Invited Lecture at the UC Irvine School of Medicine’s Gavin Herbert Eye Institute - 6th annual Bench to Beside Symposium March 9, 2019.
Jameson, K. A., K. Joe, T. A. Satalich, V. Bochko, S. Atilano & M. C. Kenney. (2018). “Color perception in observers with varying photopigment opsin genotypes”, Invited Presentation at the Donald I.A. MacLeod Symposium at the Optical Society of America Fall Vision Meeting. University of Reno, Nevada, September 22, 2018
Chan, C., A. Khan, & J. Luu with mentors K. Joe, L. Arroyo, K. A. Jameson, S. Gago, & L. Narens. (2019).“Investigating the Impact of Personality on the Decision-Making Process of Interpersonal Utility Comparisons.” UC Irvine UROP Symposium, June 2019.
Mina Jiang with mentors K. Joe, K.A. Jameson, & L. Narens. .(2019)“A Variation of an Evolutionary Game Theoretic Framework for Color Categorization Using Replicator Dynamics.” UC Irvine UROP Symposium, June 2019.
Kirbi C. Joe, V. A. Bochko, T. A. Satalich, S. R. Atilano, M. C. Kenney, & K. A. Jameson. (2019). Second Prize Poster Award. Investigating Variations in Color Perception among Artist and Non-artist Participants with Varying Photopigment Opsin Genotypes. UC Irvine, School of Medicine. Gavin Herbert Eye Institute’s 6th Annual Bench to Bedside Symposium. March 9, 2019 Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center; 100 Academy Drive, Irvine, CA 92617.
Doan, J., Frambach, C., Yuh, C., White, K., Chen, Y., Mehta, M., Kenney, M. C., Jameson, K. A., Browne, A. W. (2019) “Evaluating color vision deficiency in patients with epiretinal membranes and its association with retinal surface defects” The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology Annual Conference, April 29 - May 2 2019, Vancouver, BC, Canada. 74
Yuh, C., Frambach, C., Doan, J., White, K., Chen, Y., Kenney, M. C., Jameson, K. A., Browne, A. W. (2019). “Comparing Digital Cone Contrast Threshold assessment in Healthy Normal Individuals with Conventional Standardized Color Vision Diagnostics.” The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology Annual Conference, April 29 - May 2 2019, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Bochko, V. A. & K. A. Jameson. (2018) Investigating Potential Human Tetrachromacy in Individuals with Tetrachromat Genotypes Using Multispectral Techniques. Poster presented at The Munsell Centennial Color Symposium. March 23, 2018 Boston, MA.
Bochko, V. A. & K. A. Jameson. (2018) Investigating Potential Human Tetrachromacy in Individuals with Tetrachromat Genotypes Using Multispectral Techniques. Third Prize Poster Award. Gavin Herbert Eye Institute’s 5th Annual Bench to Bedside Symposium. March 23, 2018 Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center; 100 Academy Drive, Irvine, CA 92617.
Marek Kaminski
"Spoiler Effects in Proportional Representation Systems” Center for the Study of Democracy, Irvine, 4/17/201
"Spoiler Effects in Proportional Representation Systems” Public Choice Society Annual Meeting, Charleston, 3/2/2018
"Prison subculture in communist Poland", Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, University of California, Irvine, 10/27/2017.
"Electoral Reform and its Potential Consequences (talk for a city mayors' club)", Adam Smith Center, Warsaw, Poland, 9/18/2017.
"PR versus SMD: Tradeoff between vote quality and higher turnout?” Public Choice Annual Conference, Louisville, 3/16/2019.
"PR versus SMD: Tradeoff between vote quality and higher turnout?” UCI Center for the Study of Democracy, Problems of Democracy Workshop, April 22 2019
L. Robin Keller
L. Robin Keller, Ramsey Medalist Panel Chair and Panelist, Advances in Decision Analysis conference at Bocconi University, Milan, Italy, June 19-21, 2019, sponsored by the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS.
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L. Robin Keller, panelist and mentor at Women in Economics and Business Workshop, April 26, 2019, UC Irvine, organized by graduate students.
L. Robin Keller, “Spatial Preference Models with Multiple Objectives across Multiple Geographic Regions”, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Science, UCI, invited colloquium speaker, Dec. 6, 2018.
Jeffery L. Guyse (Presenter, Merage alumnus, Cal Poly Pomona), L Robin Keller, Candice Huynh (Merage alumna, Cal Poly Pomona), “Valuing Sequences of Lives Lost or Saved Over Time: Preference for Uniform Sequences”, invited talk in session on Behavioral Decision Analysis with Mortality and Health Outcomes, co-chaired by Keller and Guyse, INFORMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, Nov. 2018.
Jeffery L. Guyse, Candice Huynh (presenter), L Robin Keller, “Lives Saved vs. Lives Lost in Survey Research: Investigating Methodological Consistency”, invited talk in session on Behavioral Decision Analysis with Mortality and Health Outcomes, co-chaired by Keller and Guyse, INFORMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, Nov. 2018.
Jay Simon (presenter) and L. Robin Keller, “Preferences in Spatial Decision Making”, EURO conference, July 2018, Valencia, Spain.
Michael Lee
Lee, M.D., & Vanpaemel, W. (2018). Determining informative priors for cognitive models. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 114-127. Okada, K., Vandekerckhove, J. & Lee, M.D. (2018). Modeling when people quit: Bayesian censored geometric models with hierarchical and latent-mixture extensions. Behavior Research Methods, 50, 406-415.
Guan, H., & Lee, M.D. (2018). The effect of goals and environments on human performance in optimal stopping problems. Decision, 5, 339-361.
Steingroever, H., Pachur, T., Smira, M., & Lee, M.D. (2018). Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision makers. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 951–970.
Lee, M.D., Danileiko, I., & Vi, J. (2018). Testing the ability of the surprisingly popular method to predict NFL games. Judgment and Decision Making,13, 322-333. Lee, M.D. (2018). Bayesian methods for analyzing true-and-error models. Judgment and Decision Making, 13, 622-635.
Lee, M.D. (2019). A simple and flexible Bayesian method for inferring step changes in cognition. Behavior Research Methods, 51, 948-960. 76
Lee, M.D., Gluck, K.A., & Walsh, M.M. (in press). Understanding the complexity of simple decisions: Modeling multiple behaviors and switching strategies. Decision. Accepted 04-Jan- 2019.
Lee, M.D., Doering, S., & Carr. A. (in press). A model for understanding recognition validity. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 8-Jan-2019.
Steingroever, H., Jepma, M., Lee, M.D., Jansen, B.R.J., & Huizenga, H.M. (in press). Modeling decision strategies in the developmental sciences. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 9- Jan-2019.
Villarreal, M., Velázquez, C. A., Baroja, J. L., Segura, A., Bouzas, A., & Lee, M.D. (in press). Bayesian methods applied to the generalized matching law. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior. Accepted 15-Jan-2019.
Mistry, P., & Lee, M.D. (in press). Violence in the intifada: A demonstration of Bayesian generative cognitive modeling.Advances in Econometrics. Accepted 1-Feb-2019.
Lee, M. D., Criss, A. H., Devezer, B., Donkin, C., Etz, A., Leite, F. P., Matzke, D., Rouder, J.N., Trueblood, J.S., White, C.N., & Vandekerckhove, J. (in press). Robust modeling in cognitive science. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 28-Mar-2019.
Mike McBride
M, McBride, "Beliefs Also Make Social-Norm Preferences Social," Department of Economics, Clemson University, Sept 2018
Andrew Noymer
Conferences
Human Mortality Database Symposium 2019, Berlin • Using Benford’s law to assess life table ensembles: HMD and WHO model life tables
NBER Cohort Studies Meeting 2019, Cambridge • Race and life expectancy in the United States in the Great Depression. With Tim A. Bruckner, Ashley M. Ima, and Trang T. Nguyen. Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America 2019, Austin
Unraveling the social ecology of polio. With Amarah Mauricio. Session 40. & Measles deaths in the United States, 1890–2016: Age profiles and sex differences help explain pre-vaccine mortality decline. With Stephanie Torrez. Session 1975.
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UC Irvine Mini Conference on Economic History. 2018. • Race and polio mortality in the United States, 1914–69. With Amarah C. Mauricio. [by invitation]
The social impact of epidemics: Workshop marking 100 years of the 1918 Great Flu Epidemic. Oslo, 2018. • Race and mortality: The twentieth-century polio epidemic in the United States. With Amarah C. Mauricio.
XVIII World Economic History Congress, 2018 • Unraveling the social ecology of polio. With Amarah C. Mauricio. Session 030209.
Population, family and health: Global perspectives. Academia Sinica, 2018 • The demographic transition in Taiwan and USA: A convex hull approach. With Ivy K. Miller. Session 1. [by invitation]
Colloquia
Race and mortality: The twentieth-century polio epidemic in the United States UC Irvine, Sociology Department, 25 January 2019
“Summertime, and the livin’ is easy”, or, using seasonal demographic data to answer policy- relevant questions, L’Observatoire sociologique du changement (OSC), Sciences Po, Paris, 7 December 2018.
Marking the 100th anniversary of the 1918 ‘Spanish’ flu pandemic: Selective mortality and the impact on other diseases, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, 9 November 2018.
Measles mortality in the United States, 1890–2016: Why did deaths decline before the vaccine? Dondena Seminar, Bocconi University, 17 September 2018. C-DASA Seminar, UC Irvine, 5 February 2019.
Lisa Pearl
Arguments from acquisition for how to solve the linking problem. Linguistics Colloquium, University of Maryland, College Park. May 2019. Postponed for medical reasons, but youtube videos available: intro, part 1, part 2, takeaway.
Quantitative approaches to learning linking theories in language. Institute for Mathemat- ical Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine. November 2018.
What input gap is there across socioeconomic status for complex syntax? A quanti- tative and cognitive modeling analysis of linguistic evidence for learning syntactic islands. (with Alandi
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Bates) Boston University Conference on Language Development 43, Boston, MA. November 2018.
Using developmental modeling to specify learning and representation of the passive in English children. (with Emma Nguyen) Boston University Conference on Language Development 43, Boston, MA. November 2018.
Child behavior in truth-value judgments: The pragmatics of ambiguity resolution. (with Greg Scontras) Conference on Interdisciplinary Approaches to Linguistic Theory 2, Berlin, Summer 2018.
Using developmental modeling to specify learning and representation of the passive in English children. (with Emma Nguyen) 8th Generative Approaches to Language Acquisition North America Conference, Indiana University, Bloomington, Summer 2018.
Zyg Pizlo
The role of symmetry in vision and image processing. Keynote at the Conference on Human Vision and Electronic Imaging, International Symposium on Electronic Imaging, San Francisco. January 2019.
Symmetry is the sine qua non of 3D shape. Annual Interdisciplinary Conference, Jackson Hole, WY. February, 2019.
The role of symmetry in veridical 3D vision: can visual science be a hard science? Cognitive Forum, UCLA. February 2019.
Contour integration in real images. Modvis Workshop: Computational and Mathematical Modeling in Vision. St. Pete Beach, FL. May 2019.
Donald Saari
International Rationality Summer Institute, Irsee Germany, Sept. 2018, four 90-minute lectures on “Theory of Voting.
International Seminar ``Systems Analysis of Earth Science Data", Nov. 2018 Russian Academy of Sciences “Power of system thinking in the social and physical sciences."
University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland / Oct. 2018 “From voting paradoxes to the dark matter challenge of astronomy." National University of Science and Technology, Moscow / Nov. 2018, “The behavioral sciences: How can we model what we do not understand?"
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Colloquium, Mathematics, Indiana U-Purdue U at Indianapolis / Feb. 2019, “From the theory of voting to the compelling dark matter mystery"
Greg Scontras
Refereed:
Lund, Gunnar, Becky Jarvis, and Gregory Scontras. 2018. The pragmatics of semantic change: Modeling the progressive-to-imperfective shift. Sinn und Bedeutung (SuB) 23. Lund, Gunnar, Becky Jarvis, and Gregory Scontras. 2018. The progressive-to-imperfective shift: What computational pragmatics can tell us about diachronic semantics. Formal Diachronic Semantics (FoDS) 3.
Scontras, Gregory, Lisa Pearl, and K.J. Savinelli. 2018. Child behavior in truth-value judgments: The pragmatics of ambiguity resolution. Conference on Interdisciplinary Approaches to Linguistic Theory (CIALT) 2.
Rosales, Cesar M. Jr., and Gregory Scontras. 2019. On the role of conjunction in adjective ordering preferences. The 93rd Annual Meeting of the Linguistic Society of America.
Samonte, Suttera, and Gregory Scontras. 2019. Adjective ordering in Tagalog: A cross- linguistic comparison of subjectivity-based preferences. The 93rd Annual Meeting of the Linguistic Society of America. *Winner of the Committee on Ethnic Diversity in Linguistics travel award (to S. Samonte)
Scontras, Gregory, Asya Achimova, Christian Stegemann, and Martin Butz. 2019. The added informativity of ambiguous utterances. Poster presented at Experimental Pragmatics (XPRAG).
Franke, Michael, Gregory Scontras, and Mihael Simoniˇc. 2019. The evolutionary pressure for subjectivity-based adjective ordering preferences. Poster presented at the Workshop on Interaction and the Evolution of Linguistic Complexity.
Invited:
“Scope ambiguity and heritage languages.” October 18, 2018. University of Tu¨bingen.
“The role of subjectivity in adjective ordering preferences.” October 30, 2018. Goethe University Frankfurt.
“On the purpose of ambiguous language.” February 23, 2019. University of Tu¨bingen.
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“The added informativity of ambiguous language.” Stanford SemFest. March 15, 2019. Stanford University.
“The pragmatics of truth-value judgments.” SemanticsBabble. April 23, 2019. UC San Diego.
“Lesser-studied heritage languages” (with Michael Putnam). Heritage Language Re- search Institute. June 11, 2019. University of New Mexico
Stergios Skaperdas
“External Intervention, Identity, and Civil War,” 19th Jan Tinbergen Peace Conference, Network of European Peace Scientists, The Hague, Netherlands, June 24, 2019.
“External Intervention, Identity, and Civil War,” Workshop on “Economics, Security, and Politics,” Ecole Militaire, Paris, May 23, 2019.
“Greece, the Eurozone, and the EU: Context and Prospects,” University of Paris 13 seminar, May 28, 2019.
“Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?” Conference on the “Predatory State,” University of Paris 13, May 20, 2019.
“Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?” brown-bag lunch presentation, Chapman University, May 1, 2019
“Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?” Association for the Study of Religion, Economics, and Culture (ASREC) conference, March 1-2, 2019, Boston, MA.
Brian Skyrms
Keynote: “Signaling Games,” BICT 2019, Carnegie Mellon, March 2019.
From Demcritus to signaling networks, IMBS Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms, UC Irvine, March 2019.
Hal Stern
“An Introduction to Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners,” International Association for Identification Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX (15 students), August 2018.
“The Role of Statistics in Improving Forensic Science”, Joint Statistical Meetings, Vancouver, BC, August 2018. 81
“Continuous Improvement in Academic Publishing”, Joint Statistical Meetings, Vancouver, BC, August 2018.
“Gatekeepers of Statistical Scientific Evidence: Legal, Ethical and Educational Responsibilities of Judges and Lawyers” (panel), American Bar Association, Chicago, IL, August 2018. “Statistics 101: Forensic Statistics and the Assessment of Probative Value”, National Forensic Science Symposium, Department of Justice, Washington, DC, August 2018.
“The Rise of Data”, ICS: The Next 50 Years (panel presentation), University of California, Irvine, CA, October 2018.
“Forensic Statistics and the Probative Value of Evidence”, Organization of Scientific Area Committees (OSAC) for Forensic Science (in-person meeting), Phoenix, AZ, December 2018.
“Optimal Covariate Balance for Causal Inference in Observational Studies”, Johnson and Johnson, Irvine, CA January 2019.
“The Rise of Data in Science and Society” (keynote address), Halcioglu Data Science Institute 1 year anniversary symposium, University of California, San Diego, March 2019.
“Bayesian Statistical Analysis,” Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China (10 students), April 2019.
April 2019“Forensic Statistics and the Assessment of Probative Value”, Legal Training Workshop, Madison County (IL) Government Center, Edwardsville, IL (40 participants), April 2019.
“Forensic Statistics and the Assessment of Probative Value”, Legal Training Workshop, Office of the Cook County (IL) Public Defender, Chicago, IL (7 participants), May 2019.
“To P-value or Not to P-value: What is a Scientist to Do”, UCI Biological Sciences/School of Medicine Faculty Retreat, Costa Mesa, CA, May 2019.
“Statistics 1 & 2: A case-based introduction to probability theory”, ABA Criminal Justice Division’s Tenth Annual Prescription for Criminal Justice Forensics Program, New York, NY, May 2019.
“An Update from the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence”, ABA Criminal Justice Division’s Tenth Annual Prescription for Criminal Justice Forensics Program, New York, NY, May 2019. “Statistical Issues in Forensic Science”, NACDL Cardozo Law National Forensic College, New York, NY, June 2019. 82
G. FACULTY AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTS
APPENDIX E IMBS FACULTY AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTS, 2018 – 2019
Carter Butts
Elected Fellow, AAAS.
Received the William D. Richards Software Award (as part of the statnet development team) for the statnet Library for R from the International Network for Social Network Analysis.
Served as chair of the ASA Section on Mathematical Sociology.
Served on the council of the ASA Section on Methodology.
I continue to serve on the Board of Reviewing Editors for Science.
Jean- Paul Carvalho
Chair, Falmagne Chair recruitment committee, IMBS, 2019.
Faculty instructor, ASREC Economics of Religion Graduate Workshop, March 2019.
Discussant, ASREC Annual Conference, March 2019.
Organizer, Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms, IMBS, March 2019.
Faculty discussant, IRES Graduate Workshop, Chapman University, May 2019.
Microeconomics, PhD Qualifying Committee.
Michelle Garfinkel
Editorial board of the Journal of Conflict Resolution.
Editorial board of the Journal of Economics and Business.
Editorial board European Journal of Political Economy.
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Ami Glazer
I have had opinion pieces published by Business Insider, and the Los Angeles Times. A piece distributed by The Conversation has had more than 16,000 readers. I was interviewed on PBS Nightly Business Report.
Bernie Grofman
My work on redistricting has been noted in a number of major media, including the New York Times, and I co-authored a 2019 op-ed on partisan gerrymandering in the Monkey Cage section of the Washington Post.
Kimberly A. Jameson
2016-present: Jameson regularly mentors and financially supports Social Science graduate student research, and theses, as well as student researchers from UCIs Medical School and School of Engineering from research funding awards she has obtained.
2017-present: Jameson has actively served as a reviewer of proposals for extra- mural funding (e.g., Swiss National Science Foundation, National Science Foundations).
2017-present: She actively participates in IMBS review committees (e.g., 2018 IMBS Postdoctoral Applicant Review, 2019 IMBS Faculty hiring committee).
Marek Kaminski
Several reviews of my books Gry Wiezienne (Games Prisoners Play), Single-member Districts and Majoritarian Electoral Laws, and Janosik Podlaski, and related articles including:
2018 Ernest Szum, "Bez wyroku: Postscriptum do losów Józefa Koryckiego (No trial: The ending of Józef Korycki's story)," Radzyński Rocznik Humanistyczny (in Polish)
2017 Bartłomiej Michalak, "Ordynacja większościowa (Majoritarian electoral laws)," Przegląd Sejmowy (in Polish).
2017 Zdzisław Ilski, "Ordynacja większościowa (Majoritarian electoral laws)," Wrocławskie Studia Politologiczne (in Polish).
6/11/2019 Discussion of my book “Janosik Podlaski” on Polish Radio (1h 20 min) http://archiwum.radiopodlasie.pl/NEW/2019/06/11/rozmowa-z- miroslawem-andrzejewskim-2/
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L. Robin Keller
One of 10 women interviewed and spotlighted for longtime contributions to operations research: Kara Tucker, “Powerful, pragmatic pioneers: Personal profiles of 10 pillars of the O.R. profession who blazed trails, broke barriers and busted down doors for others to follow (plus one 'Rising Star')”, OR/MS Today, 46(1) February 2019, https://pubsonline.informs.org/do/10.1287/orms.2019.01.14/full/
Elected to UCI Council on Academic Personnel, 3 year term beginning Sept. 2016.
Decision Analysis editorial board member, EURO Journal on Decision Processes editorial board member, Investigación Operacional (Cuban OR journal) editorial board member, 2017- .
Advances in Decision Analysis conference at Bocconi University, Milan, Italy, June 19-21, 2019, sponsored by the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, appointed Scientific Committee member and Ramsey Medalist Panel Chair
Ramsey Medal Committee Member, 2017, 2018, 2019.
Session chair: Healthcare Decision Analysis session co-chair, INFORMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, Oct. 2019.
Igor Kopylov
Associate Editor: Theoretical Economics.
Lisa Pearl
Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching, UCI School of Social Sciences, Fall 2018.
Advised 10 undergraduate students (among whom 4 were women and 1 was an under-represented minority student) on quantitative approaches to language science.
Member of UCI committee coordinating UCI branch of the NSF-funded North American Computational Linguistics Olympiad. This program is aimed at introducing high school and middle school students to language science, with a focus on computational approaches.
Zyg Pizlo
Article in the Nature Index about the University of California, Irvine (UCI) being North America’s top rising star, mentioned my name as a high-profile hire: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06625-5?WT.feed_name=subjects_social-sciences
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Don Saari
Induction ceremony: Foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nov. 2018. Ceremony for Honorary PhD: Russian Academy of Sciences, Nov. 2018.
Gregory Scontras
Mercator Fellowship, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation), University of Tu¨bingen (2018–2019).
Hal Stern
Statistical Partnerships Among Academe, Industry and Government (SPAIG) Award (to the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence), American Statistical Association, 2018.
Chair, Ad Hoc Advisory Committee on Forensic Statistics, American Statistical Assn. (Vice- Chair 2012-2018).
Member, National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine Standing Committee To Assist FMCSA in Developing New Motor Carrier Safety Measurement System, 2017 – present.
Chair, Section U (Statistics) of the American Association for the Advancement of Science chair- elect 2017; chair 2018; retiring chair 2019.
Member, Board of Directors, National Institute of Statistical Science (NISS), 2015 – present.
Member, Scientific Area Committee for Physics/Pattern Forensic Evidence, Organization of Scientific Area Committees, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), 2014 – present.
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H. FACULTY ADVISING
APPENDIX F GRADUATE STUDENTS AFFILIATED WITH IMBS
(i) Current Student Participants and their IMBS Advisors (* advanced to Ph.D. candidacy; ** received Ph.D. during year)
Student Advisor Nikhil Addleman Carvalho Dhari Aljutaili Brownstone Maneesh Arora Grofman Lucila Arroya McBride/Narens Galia Bar-Sever Pearl/Scontras Alandi Bates Pearl/Scontras Dennis Blew Kaminski Jennifer Bryson Zhao Debapriya Chakraborty Brownstone ** Calvin Cochran Barrett/O’Connor John Cuffe Uhlaner Emma Cushman O’Connor * Maozhu Dai Stern Ali Esmaeeli Keller Ugurcan Evci Kaminski Daniel Frishberg Eppstein Rick Gardner Butts Marian Gilton Weatherall Maryam Gooyabadi Carvalho/Narens Kier Groulx Chubb Maime Guan Lee ** Santiago Guisasola Saari Elham Havvaei Epstein Daniel Herrmann Huttegger Christian Herrera Chubb Joselyn Ho Chubb Kurt Horner McBride Matt Inverso Chubb Kirbi Jo McBride/Narens Patrick Julius Carvalho/McBride Ali Kalshani Keller Brian Kaiser Kaminski Alysha Kassam O’Connor Saira Khan Huttegger Shantanu Khanna McBride Hadi Khodabande Eppstein Hannah Kim Grofman
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Student Advisor Kyle Kole Keller Si-Yuan Kong McBride Travis LaCroix Barrett/O’Connor William Leibzon Narens Francis Lee Butts Gunnar Lund Scontras Alex Luttman Brueckner Amine Mahmassani McBride Tung Mai Vazirani Nil Mamano Eppstein Solena Mednikoff Chubb Chris Mitsch Weatherall Emma Nguyen Pearl Joseph Nunn Narens Fulya Ozcan Poirier Nolan Phillips Butts Jason Ralston McBride Jordan Rashid Chubb Scott Renshaw Butts Alex Robinson Keller Gerard Roth Huttegger/Skyrms Sarita Rosenstock O’Connor/Weatherall K.J. Savinelli Scontras/Pearl Zachary Schaller Carvalho/Skaperdas Mike Schneider O’Connor/Weatherall Galia Bar Sever Scontras Nishtha Sharma Skaperdas Linley Slipetz O’Connor Emma Smith Butts Christian Stegemann Scontras Pat Testa Skaperdas Loring Thomas Butts Sarah Thomaz Brueckner Holly Westfall Lee Nicole Winter Chubb Daniel Wolf Kaminski Karen Wood Komarova Eyra Yang McBride/Skaperdas Howard Yang Chubb Sadra Yazdanbod Vazirani Fan Yin Butts Tim Young McBride Yue Yu Butts Kai Yoshioka Brownstone Xuhong Zhang Butts Junying Zhao Saari/Skaperdas Yuting Zhao Huttegger 88