FORENSIC SCIENCE AND BEYOND: AUTHENTICITY, PROVENANCE AND ASSURANCE EVIDENCE AND CASE STUDIES

l l l l l l l Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2015 Forensic Science and Beyond: Authenticity, Provenance and Assurance Evidence and Case Studies

This volume comprises chapters which form the evidence for the Government Chief Scientific Adviser’s Annual Report 2015, together with illustrative case studies. It should be cited as: Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2015: Forensic Science and Beyond: Authenticity, Provenance and Assurance. Evidence and Case Studies.

The Government Office for Science would like to thank the authors who contributed evidence chapters, case studies and their time towards this report and gave it freely.

This report is intended for: Policymakers, legislators, and a wide range of business people, professionals, researchers and other individuals whose interests include the use of forensic analysis within the Criminal Justice System through to authenticity, provenance and assurance in the provision of goods and services.

The report project team was Martin Glasspool, Richard Meadows, Lindsay Taylor, Adam Trigg and Jenny Wooldridge.

This report consists of contributions received from academia and industry and others outside of government. The views expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisation.

This report is presented in two parts. The first is the summary report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser. This was developed as a result of seminars and the advice of the experts who provided the source of the evidence. The second part, the evidence, has been gathered from and written by a distinguished group of experts. The evidence takes two forms: chapters that consider a major aspect of the forensic landscape; and individual case studies that illuminate points of detail and principle. The evidence section provides the views of the experts themselves, who met on several occasions during the preparation of the report and had the opportunity to help to develop the narrative and to comment on each other’s contributions. The Government Chief Scientific Adviser is responsible and accountable for the summary report, and the experts for their individual contributions to the evidence papers and case studies. Neither should be blamed for the sins and omissions of the other! FOREWORD

My second annual report explores new and emerging forensic techniques so that policy makers can ensure they are developed and used for the benefi t of the UK.

It covers four main areas:

● An overview of the UK’s forensic science landscape from the perspective of its users ● The changing nature of crime (including cybercrime), examining how forensic science can predict, deter and overtake it ● The forensic application of analytical science beyond the court system ● The steps required to secure the UK’s forensic science sector for the long term, with particular attention to innovation and new market opportunities.

In producing the report, I have drawn on the knowledge of a range of experts and academics. They have provided a clear evidence base for each of these four areas. This volume presents that body of evidence, as well as illustrative case studies.

The chapters and case studies herein represent the authors’ personal views rather than those of the Government Offi ce for Science, but their insights – for which I am greatly indebted – have fundamentally informed the messages and questions raised in my report.

Sir Mark Walport Government Chief Scientifi c Adviser December 2015 CONTENTS

SECTION 1: The forensic science landscape CHAPTER 1: FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT 12 Dr Angela Gallop, Axiom International Ltd Karen Squibb-Williams, Acorn Chambers DNA ANALYSIS 17 Dr Susan Pope, Director of DNA Principal Forensics Ltd A PARADIGM SHIFT IN UK FORENSIC SCIENCE 20 Professor Niamh Nic Daeid, Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification, University of Dundee

CHAPTER 2: FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE 24 Gary Pugh, Director of Forensic Services at the Metropolitan Police Service THE POLICYMAKER’S PERSPECTIVE 27 Amanda Cooper, SRO Digital Policing and Science, Home Office THE COMMERCIAL PROVIDERS’ PERSPECTIVE 29 Roger Robson, Managing Director of Forensic Access FORENSIC SCIENCE IN HIGHER EDUCATION 30 Dr Geraldine Fahy, University of Kent

CHAPTER 3: ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION 32 Dr Josephine Bunch, National Physical Laboratory UKAS ACCREDITATION: PROVIDING CONFIDENCE IN FORENSIC SCIENCE 34 Malcolm Hynd, External Affairs Manager, UK Accreditation Service

CHAPTER 4: COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS 40 Dr Itiel Dror, University College London (UCL) and Cognitive Consultants International (CCI-HQ) STATISTICS IN COURT 50 Dr David Lagnado, University College London, with contributions from Professor Colin Aitken, University of Edinburgh SECTION 2: The changing nature of crime CHAPTER 5: THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME 56 Pete Merrill, Head of Science & Innovation, National Crime Agency TROJAN OPENS THE GATES TO COMPANY CASH 62 Oliver Smith, PwC Cyber Threat Operations

CHAPTER 6: IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION 64 Professor Sue Black, Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification, University of Dundee SUPERIDENTITY 68 Dr Sarah Stevenage, University of Southampton 71 MANAGING BIOMETRICS Isabelle Moeller, Chief Executive, Biometrics Institute 73 EMERGING BIOMETRICS IN THE COURTROOM Dr Lucina Hackman, Dr Chris Rynn and Dr Helen Meadows, Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification, University of Dundee

74 CHAPTER 7: CYBER FORENSICS Professor Andrew Blyth, University of South Wales Matthew Johnson, Chief Technology Officer, Guardtime 80 CHILD ABUSE IMAGE DATABASE Chris Felton, Safeguarding Directorate’s Online and Digital Lead, Home Office

82 CHAPTER 8: THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Professor Tim Wilson, Northumbria Centre for Evidence and Criminal Justice Studies, Northumbria University 90 DISASTER VICTIM IDENTIFICATION: MH17 Detective Superintendent Jen Williams, National Civil Contingencies and Disaster Victim Identification Coordinator, National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC) 92 FORENSIC ANALYSIS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN SYRIA Dr Cerys Rees, Head of Chemical and Biological Analysis and Attribution, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) 94 WILDLIFE CRIME Dr Lucy Webster, Wildlife Forensic Scientist, Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture (SASA)

96 CHAPTER 9: DESIGNING OUT CRIME Nick Ross, Chairman, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science 100 ETHICS IN FORENSIC SCIENCE Chris Hughes, Chair of the National DNA Database Ethics Group 102 DESIGNING OUT MOBILE PHONE CRIME Nick Ross, Chairman, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science 105 TRENDS IN VEHICLE CRIME Mike Briggs, Crime Research Manager at Thatcham Research

SECTION 3: Forensic science: beyond the court 110 CHAPTER 10: AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE Dr Derek Craston, Government Chemist, LGC 112 NUCLEAR FORENSICS Dr Vladimír Šucha, Professor Maria Betti and Dr Klaus Lützenkirchen Joint Research Centre, European Commission 116 PROVENANCE OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS Dr Daniel Thomas, Nuclear Threat Reduction, AWE

FORENSIC GEOSCIENCE 118 Professor Lorna Dawson, Head of the Soil Forensic Group, James Hutton Institute Dr Ruth Morgan, Director of the UCL Centre for the Forensic Sciences NOTIONS OF PURITY: AN ANTHROPOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE 120 Professor Francesca Bray, Social Anthropology, University of Edinburgh

CHAPTER 11: FOOD AND DRINK 122 Dr Vladimír Šucha, Professor Elke Anklam and Professor Franz Ulberth, Joint Research Centre, European Commission SCOTCH WHISKY: AUTHENTICITY, PROVENANCE AND ASSURANCE 125 Julie Hesketh-Laird, Deputy Chief Executive, Scotch Whisky Association STOPPING FOOD FRAUD 129 Sue Davies, Chief Policy Adviser, Which? EXPLOITING THE MICROBIOME 130 Paul Brereton, Head of Agri-food Research, Fera Science Ltd.

CHAPTER 12: COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS AND METHODS TO TEST THEM 132 Dr Harparkash Kaur, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine OPERATION PANGEA 138 Gift Minta, Senior Criminal Intelligence Analyst, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency THE COUNTERFEITING OF HEALTHCARE PRODUCTS 140 David A Tainsh, Chief Product Quality Officer Nisha Mistry, Senior Investigator (R&D), GlaxoSmithKline

CHAPTER 13: CONSUMER PRODUCTS 142 Melissa Dring, Director of Policy Robyn Ellison, Policy Officer, Chartered Trading Standards Institute MAKING THE MOST OF TRADING STANDARDS SERVICES 143 Melissa Dring, Director of Policy, Chartered Trading Standards Institute Robyn Ellison, Policy Officer, Chartered Trading Standards Institute CONSUMER PROTECTION AND SOCIAL MEDIA 147 Mike Andrews, National Trading Standards eCrime Team BLOCK CHAIN – AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE 148 Jessi Baker, CEO of Project Provenance Ltd

CHAPTER 14: ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS 150 Professor Ian L Boyd, Chief Scientific Adviser, Defra ENVIRONMENTAL DNA ANALYSIS FOR WILDLIFE CONSERVATION 152 Dr Peter Brotherton, Director of Specialist Services and Programmes, Natural England SECTION 4: Securing the future of UK forensic science 162 CHAPTER 15: FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES Dr Steve Bleay Dr Neil Cohen Dr Barbara Daniel, Head of Forensic Science Unit, King’s College London Ian Elkins, Crown Prosecution Service Professor Dick Lacey Shaun Mallinson, Partnerships and Funding Coordinator, CAST Nick McCoy, Head of Forensic Services, Warwickshire Police and West Mercia Police Pete Merrill, Head of Sciences, National Crime Agency Kevin Morton, Director of Regional Scientific Support Services, Yorkshire and the Humber 166 SKILLS AND COMPETENCY FOR THE FUTURE Dr Anya Hunt, CEO, The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences 170 FORENSICS AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS Alastair Cook, Director of Critical Insight Security Ltd 172 NEXT-GENERATION DIGITAL FORENSICS Graham Bromelow, MCM Solutions

174 CHAPTER 16: ENCOURAGING INNOVATION Dr Geraint Morgan, The Open University, Dr Thomas Bassindale, Sheffield Hallam University, Dr Mark Pearse, LGC 179 INNOVATE UK AND THE FORENSIC SCIENCE SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP Dr Meez Islam, Teesside University 181 BIOSENSORS IN FORENSICS Dr Barbara Daniel, Head of Forensic Science Unit, King’s College London

182 CHAPTER 17: ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET Dr Mark Littlewood, co-ordinator of the Forensic Science Special Interest Group, Dr Gillian Tully, Forensic Science Regulator 185 BRINGING A FORENSIC PRODUCT TO MARKET Michael Heffernan, CEO of ArroGen, Kim Sandquist, CSO Chemistry, Peter Schad, CSO Biology, John Owen, Managing Director 188 CYBER SCIENCE AND CONSUMER INTELLIGENCE Stephen Hay, Director, Pilot Lite Ventures SECTION 1: THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

The interaction between criminal investigation, justice and science is complex, but offers one of the strongest safeguards against false allegation and wrongful conviction. Digital forensics 10 can recover, analyse and compare vast amounts of information from mobile phones, tablets, PCs, CCTV Traditional types of forensics and satellite data.

DNA Drugs Toxicology

Firearms Footwear Patterns Fingerprints

Blood Spatter Fibres Fire Investigation In the UK we There are identify approximately 25,000 50,000 DNA offenders matches from crime scenes using between crime scenes fingerprints each year and offenders each year

The National DNA Database produces over

2,000 DNA matches a month 11 and has a match rate of over 60% with a DNA profiles obtained from samples taken from a crime scene or victim

Cognitive and human factors underpin many aspects of forensic work, from the initial The complexity of forensic collection and evaluation of data at the crime scene, throughout science is increasing rapidly. work in the laboratory where Policymakers and practitioners evidence is interpreted, to need to work towards presentation in court. consistency, collaboration, clarity and common standards. THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CHAPTER 1 FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT

ANGELA GALLOP, The privatisation of forensic science services in England and Wales has Axiom been a resounding success, in some ways: it has saved costs, reduced International Ltd, case turnaround times, maintained quality and, to some extent, inspired KAREN innovation. But the way services are procured has become increasingly SQUIBB-WILLIAMS, fragmented, threatening future innovation and potentially undermining Acorn Chambers public confidence in the criminal justice process. The UK urgently needs a national strategy covering all aspects of forensic science that takes account of all stakeholders, not just the police.

n reality there may be no such thing tread patterns on shoes and feet marks inside as ‘Forensic Science’. Perhaps instead, them; differences between voices; paint and glass a multiplicity of sciences and scientific fragments on tools; the life cycle of flies; and methodologies, old and new, when applied assemblages of pollen grains. to legal questions, become the discipline of Most recently, forensic science has been further Iforensic science. These questions are usually transformed by our ability to detect and analyse associated with the prosecution of crime, but tiny amounts of DNA, found to varying extents 12 they also cover consumer and environmental in every part of the human body and in animals protection, health and safety, and civil proceedings and plants too (see case study p17). And it can such as breach of contract and negligence. The now recover, analyse and compare vast amounts sheer variety of scientific disciplines involved in of information stored on mobile phones, tablets forensic science can potentially distract focus from and PCs, in CCTV footage and other imagery, the formation of a coherent strategy for their use as well as incalculable quantities of satellite data. within the justice system. This seemingly endless list of capabilities also Forensic science is a term that has come to includes the statistical analysis of the likelihood of be used over the past century and a half to a probability, which can generate confusion that describe an increasing number of practices. These potentially weakens the contribution of scientific began with the observations that fingertips evidence (see Chapter 4). feature different patterns, and that people write Nevertheless, forensic science has led to a in different, distinguishable ways; that chemistry much more reliable understanding – and indeed could help to identify poisons; that the blood shed hard physical evidence of – where, when, how from different types of injury formed distinctive and by whom crimes have been committed. patterns; and that different chemical groups It can uncover the nature and likely origin of a could be used to distinguish blood from different wide range of objects and substances; which of people. All these were used to clear up mysteries two competing accounts is more likely to be and help get to the bottom of matters in dispute. right; the extent of an individual’s criminality; as As analytical techniques and methodologies well as the nature of drugs and firearms supply developed and experience broadened, it became chains, and who is involved in them. Increasingly, possible to determine the composition of forensic science is also being used to predict everyday items such as plastic bags and tracksuit when crimes are likely to be committed so they trousers; the trajectory of a knife or a bullet; the can be pre-empted and disrupted, and it answers precise nature of arson and ballistics residues; innumerable other questions across endeavours the meaning of bone damage; how old a bruise in all sections of society. To this extent, it makes might be; narcotic traces on bank notes; individual an invaluable contribution to our justice and characteristics of hair, nails, and teeth and bite security systems and thereby to our economic marks; the interpretation of simple binary data; and social stability. FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT

THE IMPACTS OF FORENSIC FORENSIC SCIENCE HAS LED SCIENCE Forensic science impacts on government, TO A MUCH MORE RELIABLE law enforcement, academia, lawyers, judges, UNDERSTANDING – AND INDEED scientists and technicians, insurers, regulators, journalists and the public. All of these different HARD PHYSICAL EVIDENCE OF – sections of society, as well as different specialists WHERE, WHEN, HOW AND BY WHOM within forensic science, will have different CRIMES HAVE BEEN COMMITTED perspectives and interpretations about what forensic science is, and what it can and cannot do.These perspectives go to the heart of our justice system. For instance, prosecution lawyers and from those whose focus is solely in the are statutorily obliged to exercise their own UK to those who also operate internationally. view of the strengths and weaknesses of the Indeed, some UK forensic providers are foreign scientific evidence before deciding whether an owned. They include private companies, investigation can progress to the prosecution public organisations, academic institutions, and process – this ‘gatekeeping’ decision takes place commercial and industrial operations. long before a judge is involved in the matter. Their customers are just as varied. The Legal defence teams need to know whether 43 police services in England and Wales, and any specific aspects of scientific evidence might associated investigative and law enforcement usefully be subjected to challenge. How are any bodies (e.g. the National Crime Agency), are of them to make such assessments without a the largest cohort of customers, and much of reasonable grasp of the science and scientific what follows in this chapter will inevitably focus methodology? It follows that where discussion on this area. Prosecution lawyers throughout 13 and formulation of policy regarding the social the UK also represent a large body of users, utility of the sciences takes place, a very clear despite rarely having any contractual or direct common language is necessary; this remains an contact with the scientists. But there are many essential, yet arguably elusive, aim. other organisations that also use forensic science How then are forensic science providers including, for example, lawyers representing and those who use their services and products, people accused of crime or acting for one particularly law enforcement personnel side or the other in civil matters; regulatory and lawyers, best able to understand and bodies; manufacturers whose products are maximise the opportunities available to them? alleged to be faulty, contaminated or fraudulent; Scientific excellence, commercial success private individuals and their professional bodies and just outcomes depend on the consistent conducting investigations of their own; and understanding, integration and utility of high- insurers (and their loss adjusters) challenging quality scientific processes and practices, claims. Rightly, of course, there is no limit grounded in a fertile, confident environment globally on how the sciences are used, or by that is supported by a consistent government whom; consequently, those with criminal intent strategy which includes sufficient funding and and terrorists also make full use of scientific open, defragmented communication (see case opportunity. In response, the UK must have study p20). the capability to monitor and analyse such use While this is a relatively straightforward overtly and, where appropriate, covertly. concept, the reality is far more complex. There are many different forensic science providers, A STRATEGY FOR FORENSIC reflecting the sheer scope and scale of forensic SCIENCE activity. They range from organisations that As we write this chapter, the government is specialise in forensic science to the exclusion of currently in the process of developing a national everything else, to those who do it as a side line; strategy for forensic science. It is clearly critical from large-scale operations to niche suppliers that the true views and experiences of forensic of specialist services; from those who are both suppliers are captured during this process. This customers and providers of forensic services; is not always easy, owing to significant sensitivities THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

It is clearly critical that those with potentially AS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION, important forensic application are tested, and ADVERSITY HAS INSPIRED SOME where appropriate, validated and incorporated IMAGINATIVE PARTNERSHIPS BETWEEN into operational use as quickly and effectively as possible. But identifying which these might be, DIFFERENT TYPES OF ORGANISATION and conducting the necessary tests for relevance, reliability and robustness is a costly and time- consuming business (see Chapter 3). Gone are the days when providers might about investigative customer perceptions of expect to earn sufficient profits from their work individual firms, which often limit what these to fund all of this R&D themselves. It is difficult firms are prepared to say openly. for them to compete effectively for external There are different ways in which forensic funding from research councils and other funding providers interact with their customers, ranging institutions because historically this has not been from contracts covering routine testing, to one-off a core skill, and besides, there are few such funds investigations requiring specific strategies which with a forensic science focus – most are targeted need continual refinement as work progresses. towards the ‘pure’ sciences (see Chapter 16). The greatest change in recent times has been in Gone too is the Forensic Science Service (FSS), relation to work commissioned by the police (see which benefitted from additional direct support Chapter 2). This reflected the shift from public from government for this purpose. Recognising to private providers on cost and effectiveness these difficulties, the House of Commons Science grounds, and the desire by police services to be and Technology Committee commented in its able to compare products and services of one 2011 report1: “Forensic R&D in the UK is not 14 provider with another on an ‘apples with apples’ healthy, and we call on the Home Office and basis. To assist with this, a system was devised Research Councils to develop a new national which effectively broke down forensic services research budget for forensic science”. In its 2013 into their smallest component parts, which report2, the committee wrote that “it remains as could then be bought and sold as commodities difficult as ever for forensic researchers to obtain through a national streamlined procurement funding”. While some funds are available from the process. At the same time, and in an effort to government’s Innovate UK agency, which works further control and reduce costs, police services closely with the Home Office’s Centre for Applied started in-sourcing increasing amounts of the Science and Technology (CAST) and other bodies work themselves, mainly in connection with the in administering them, the process is fairly opaque initial examination of items for evidential traces. and we know from experience that providers’ Such traces – often on swabs, in scrapings, or on access to such funds remains very problematic. snippets of fabric – are then submitted for more As the mother of invention, adversity has detailed analysis to one or more external forensic inspired some imaginative partnerships between science laboratories. different types of organisation – most notably The leading forensic suppliers complain police services, forensic suppliers and academic consistently about the difficulties of continuing to institutions, which have added to the richness provide services to the various standards required of projects. But a properly developed national while remaining competitive. They do this in strategy with universal buy-in is required to private for fear of creating concern amongst provide focus and impetus for research, along their customers about their resilience and ability withthe necessary funds to ensure the timeliness, to cope with new procurement awards. This safety and reliability of emerging forensic inevitably means that funding for activities such as technologies. research and development suffers, and projects In formulating such a strategy, we need to look tend to be skewed towards those more directly deeper into the way we deploy forensic science. related to saving operational costs. A good place to start would be with the attrition It is in the very nature of science that new rate in criminal cases in England and Wales: technologies and methodologies constantly specifically, those cases where forensic evidence emerge from the wider scientific community. was sought during the initial investigation, then FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT

passed to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), explore more rigorously what the value of forensic but which fail to continue to court. Since the early science and forensic analysis is to the criminal 2000s, the authors have been told by a number of justice system as a whole. Chief Constables and other investigators that only The cost of obtaining forensic evidence and around 10% of cases involving forensic science using expert witnesses is loosely said among senior evidence ever reach a courtroom. Is there really police to be second only to salary costs within a 90% attrition rate? And if there is, what are some law enforcement agencies (there is no the reasons for it? Is this acceptable, for instance reliable and comprehensive data). Consequently, through a case ending satisfactorily before reaching exploring and seeking to reduce this significant court, or does it potentially represent a waste and potentially unjust attrition rate should now be of public funds? And why does our experience placed alongside all the other key considerations of suggest that public policymakers do not always forensic science and related strategic policy making. seem to be fully aware of these operational issues? Effective public policy can only be achieved Answering these questions would offer valuable through identifying and understanding the real information for strategic forward planning. In challenges of involving forensic science and the interests of justice and in the public interest, scientific methodologies in the criminal justice therefore, it is worth considering a different landscape. In this regard, perhaps much is to be approach to investigating crimes using forensic learnt by moving the focus away from the intense, evidence (and necessarily expert evidence) and ‘sexy’ work of police, crime scene investigators preparing cases specifically for the CPS (rather (CSIs) and forensic scientists, or the dramatic than the perpetual focus of preparation for the and charismatic nature of the courtroom; and court room). instead shift it to the ‘backroom’ dynamics and comparatively dry mechanics of the prosecution HOW USEFUL IS FORENSIC SCIENCE? process. This is the critical decision-making point 15 It is notable that academic, investigative, political where cases either proceed to court, or are filed and media attention on forensic science has away with numbers of others that have reached focused almost exclusively on crime scene the end of the criminal justice road. investigative input and prosecution process Although a body of research exists into attrition outcomes in the courtroom (i.e. reported rates of particular crime types, especially domestic cases). But this only addresses the outcomes of violence and rape cases3, there is a dearth of about 10% of investigative activity, potentially research in relation to attrition rates associated significantly skewing any analysis. Indeed, if the with particular scientific evidence types (save effectiveness of police investigations, and the utility perhaps for the US National Academy of Sciences of forensic evidence, are to be measured by way Report on Forensic Sciences – see below). of appearances in the courtroom this may lead While the UK has seen myriad reports on police to ignoring the 90% of investigations that, hidden investigations, and the use of forensic science, these from view in the manner hypothesised above, fall have almost always based their conclusions upon by the wayside post-investigation and pre-trial. those rarefied cases that end up in court, which Such a lack of reliable, evidence-based information are then available for academic and public scrutiny about what has occurred in the significant majority and comment. Even when directly informed of cases could suggest that what is ‘known’ about by operational police or forensic scientists, police investigative and forensic practice is just the these commentators are sometimes at risk of tip of an iceberg, and any conclusions based upon commenting from behind a veil of ignorance of such limited knowledge thus remain conjecture. why cases have been ‘dropped’ by the CPS. No scientific methodology would recommend So why might the attrition rate be so high? Law extrapolating findings from just 10% of their enforcement investigation files are subjected to experiments; and yet, if this attrition rate is in a seven-stage filtering process, defined by the any way accurate, police officers, criminologists, statutory function of the CPS as cases leave the forensic scientists, lawyers and judges have been investigative field and enter into the gateway at risk of doing just that. It may be shown in the of the prosecution process. The application future that this is not the definitive percentage, of these filters appears to have the effect of but the figure is less important than the need to reducing the strength of the forensic evidence, particularly when subjected to the “evidential on the murders found that if processes to share stage” of the Test set out in the Code for information between between forces were Crown Prosecutors (7th Edition), which Crown followed and adequate checks were conducted Prosecutors are statutorily obliged to apply in by the school and the police then Ian Huntley order to determine whether a case proceeds would not have been able to gain employment into the prosecution process. These seven filters as a school caretaker. can be broadly defined as follows: In addition, law enforcement agencies – and 1 Applicable statute and case law in the the politicians responsible for them – rely heavily jurisdiction of England & Wales on the positive public perception of their role 2 The Code for Crown Prosecutors, 7th Edition to achieve co-operation (‘policing by consent’). 3 The CPS Core Quality Standards This requires favourable media coverage, and 4 The Criminal Procedure Rules they are potentially drawn into a public-relations 5 The Criminal Procedure and Investigations Act, approach which accentuates ‘success’ at tackling 1996 crime, and detecting and convicting offenders. 6 The more contemporary4 principles of The increase in forensic laboratories and the streamlining Forensic Case Management and diversification of forensic techniques over the proportionate prosecutions past thirty years, propelled especially by DNA 7 The absence of a contractual relationship testing, has occurred without a corresponding between forensic science providers and end- efflorescence of published research on the users, namely the CPS and the court efficacy of such techniques on solving crime and actually convicting criminals6. Studies7, 8 The second stage of this filtration process, in have shown that forensic evidence did impact particular, calls for attention because it deals on prosecution rates, though not uniformly 16 with the status of evidence itself – a question – for example, by increasing sentences and which probes the core of the place of science incarceration, though not actually affecting within the development of the modern nation whether or not a defendant was convicted in the state, and one taken up in the work of major first place. philosophers of science Karl Popper, Thomas Joseph Peterson and Ira Sommers have Kuhn, and Paul Feyerabend5. According to the shown that the impact of forensic evidence description of the evidential stage in the CPS’s varied between different kinds of cases. Forensic Code for Crown Prosecutors, for evidence to be evidence has a strong impact on the rate of used in court, the prosecutor must be satisfied arrest, charging, and conviction for aggravated that it is reliable, credible, and admissible. It assault, burglary and robbery, and rape, in could be that it is in the face of these questions particular6. The same study found that in only that the findings and methodologies of forensic “~2% of all cases, 6% of cases with crime scene science encounter significant resistance. evidence, and 12% of cases with examined Importantly, it may also help to consider evidence” did forensic evidence link a suspect to whether the ability of the 43 police services of a crime scene or a victim. However, it should be England and Wales to individually source their acknowledged that this conclusion may, to some forensic science needs – rather than acting extent, depend on the particular methodology together as a nationwide ‘super user’ – may have used, as with all research. fed a tendency for each police service to use Kelly Pyrek has represented forensic science their scientific and technological capability in a as a mêlée in which “the numerous stakeholders ‘siloed’ manner to excel in achieving individual in the criminal justice system extract from police service performance indicator targets. forensic science what they need to perpetuate Such targets are potentially counter-productive their positions”9. Further recent research has to a national cohesive knowledge sharing highlighted the conflicted agendas in which approach. Looking wider than forensic science, forensic science is caught. According to Kevin the Soham murders are perhaps an example Strom and Matthew Hickman, “compared of the price paid by the public interest for the with reducing crime rates, maximizing case past lack of unified action and communication solution, conviction, and sentencing rates may by some police services. The Bichard Report not command the same attention”10. Though FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT

CASE STUDY

DNA ANALYSIS

SUSAN POPE, Director of DNA Principal Forensics Ltd

ifferent types of DNA test can one person’s Y profile can be used to include produce profiles that provide or exclude all of the male blood relatives of the important investigative leads in person tested, so the number of people profiled unsolved cases. Imagine a case can be limited. Mitochondrial DNA, inherited where the body of a person has been found with through the female line, can provide further Dmultiple stab wounds. There are no witnesses to familial leads. the incident, but a knife and a tissue were found If the profile obtained from cells on the knife beside the body. Investigators swab the handle handle shows a mixture of DNA from multiple of the knife and take samples from the tissue, in donors, then the direct DNA database searches order to recover DNA from skin cells deposited for that result may be more limited and its by people who have touched them. intelligence value is decreased. However, once a Standard DNA tests analyse genetic markers named individual is compared with the mixture in areas of DNA called short tandem repeats then standard methods for evaluating the (STRs) that vary greatly between people. By significance can be performed on many mixtures, testing cells on the tissue, investigators produce with an increasing range of specialist statistical a full DNA profile that appears to be from a analysis available for complex mixtures. 17 single person. This result can be searched against Specialist investigative tests analyse markers the profiles of (a) people and (b) other crimes for physical appearance including eye, hair and held on the National DNA Database. Police are skin colour. These may provide intelligence leads notified if the profile matches a named person, about the general appearance of the offender who can then be interviewed. Intelligence in cases where a DNA profile from a crime information can be obtained if the profile stain has not produced any matches on DNA matches samples from other crimes. At the same database searches and there is no eyewitness time, individuals that do not match the profile evidence to describe the offender. are eliminated from enquiries. In the short term, the police are testing rapid If no matches are obtained in the UK, the DNA devices that can analyse reference and police may consider searching international DNA crime samples in two hours, producing profiles databases. The standard test contains all of the suitable for DNA database searches. This would DNA markers needed for searches of European provide reference and crime profiles and allow DNA databases, for example. DNA tests are a suspect to be included or eliminated from an currently available that analyse more than 24 investigation within custody time limits. STR areas of DNA, including all of those present Longer-term research is currently directed in both the European Standard Set and the US towards Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) CODIS system, enabling wider international systems, which combine and extend all of the searches. These are not performed routinely in applications listed so far. A single test will not England and Wales or Northern Ireland, but are only analyse many more STRs, but it will do used in Scotland. so at a greater level of discrimination. It will If no matches to named individuals are also include Y chromosome markers, physical obtained then familial searches for relatives such markers and ancestry informative tests. These as parent, child or sibling can be performed for are already being used for medical applications, intelligence purposes. Familial leads for male and similar systems useful for forensic work are samples can be followed up by testing markers being evaluated for future implementation, once (called Y STRs) on the Y chromosome, which is suitable DNA databases and methods have been inherited through the male line. This means that produced, evaluated and validated. THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

they may be important from a justice system whether there is any evidential basis for the perspective, they may command less attention anecdotal 90% attrition rate, and if so to set out from the police executive which has more the cause and effect landscape with the clear aim influence over funding. of supporting future strategic forensic policy in The authors of a 2005 UK Home Office the justice system. research study on attrition in volume crime presented an optimistic picture about the THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF contribution of forensic science in ensuring FORENSIC SCIENCE conviction in such crimes11. They cited the The ethical status of forensic science has seen science’s ability to create strong “first links” dramatic changes over recent years. We have between suspects and offences, as well as the come a long way from the miscarriages of justice “principal information needed to make a case of the 1970s and 1980s (John Preece, and the against a suspect”, and that this had changed Birmingham Six, for example) which highlighted from a previous situation in which forensic shortcomings in laboratory systems and processes evidence was merely used for corroboration. and heralded the introduction of formal quality Most importantly, though, they found that management. These days there is a requirement forensic science did not improve the generally for internationally-accredited quality systems high attrition rate within volume crime. This in most forensic laboratories (see Chapter 3), is because forensic evidence was either not except in the newer disciplines such as digital collected in efficient ways – in household forensics (see Chapter 7), and fingerprints (with burglary cases, for example, it may be collected its very different origin in the police service), as a way to reassure the victim, rather than where these are still being developed. A Forensic because of its likely efficacy – or that it was not Regulator (currently non-statutory) has been 18 collected at all from those crime scenes (such as introduced to develop and oversee standards vehicle crimes) where it would be more likely to and codes of conduct and practice; although it prevent attrition11. should be noted that this superintendence only From recent literature on forensic science, applies to forensic providers to the prosecution. attrition, and the Criminal Justice System, it may Scientists have also been required to interpret the be suggested that while the growth of forensic significance of their findings in a more ‘scientific’ science methods and applications has given way, using statistical approaches to support their cause for optimism, significant discrepancies otherwise almost entirely subjective assessments, exist in the effective management of the science and to set out the basis of their opinion in their and its resources. Though the findings of the witness statements so that this can be more studies cited here have served to circumscribe effectively assessed by others (see Chapter 4). this problem, none of them have dealt with it to One interesting development is the increase the extent of offering detailed remedial policy in forensic work being conducted within police recommendations. The following chapters of this services. Many police services have established report will help to set out the foundations upon or extended their own forensic screening units which future government strategy can be built which undertake initial examinations of items by the integration of well-informed, cohesive and to varying extents. As a consequence of this, collaborative policy making. external suppliers receive significantly fewer In addition, Northumbria University is now items for examination or review, and sometimes funding a research project to explore precisely receive only samples taken from such items. This the areas of potentially significant attrition equates to a substantial shift in some of the work described in this chapter. The programme, from external to in-house police facilities. At the led by Karen Squibb-Williams, will explicitly extreme end of the scale is the Metropolitan concern itself with the passage of cases involving Police Laboratory, re-created after the closure of forensic science and scientific methodologies, the FSS. This now provides the vast majority of from the criminal investigation phase through forensic laboratory services for what is by far the to the prosecution process, as well as ‘case largest police service in England and Wales. Use of management’ (which means different things to digital forensics is rising rapidly, reflecting trends in different organisations). A key aim is to establish modern life, and much of this work is also being FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT

provided from within police services themselves. This development puts police services in a THE ETHICAL STATUS OF FORENSIC position of both hunting criminals, and being SCIENCE HAS SEEN DRAMATIC responsible for directing and presenting impartial CHANGES OVER RECENT YEARS. scientific evidence to the prosecution process and courts of law. The very act of selecting which WE HAVE COME A LONG WAY items should be examined for what – irrespective FROM THE MISCARRIAGES OF of who actually does the testing – can have an impact on the outcome of an investigation. JUSTICE OF THE 1970s AND 1980s (See Chapter 4 for a discussion on the range of other factors). Of course, there may be nothing wrong with any of this, but it certainly seems to be something worthy of public awareness and should not be restricted to just those likely to debate before it becomes an accepted norm. support the prosecution’s case, as this may limit Forensic input is also now sensibly and bias interpretations of what the evidence is commissioned in stages to avoid any unnecessary likely to mean work. Individual tests are selected in the order in • Work on the same case may be fragmented which they are most likely to yield information between different organisations. For example, of use to an investigation (though it should be a police screening unit may examine the items, noted that prosecuting lawyers are very rarely before one or more external laboratories involved in this selection process). Where this analyse different samples selected from them. prompts a guilty plea, no further work needs to This means that no one person is likely to be undertaken. Wherever possible, the results of have a full picture of the evidence, which is such tests are reported by way of Streamlined vital to interpret its likely significance in the 19 Forensic Reports (SFRs) that merely contain the wider context of the case. (See chapter 4 for facts of a test; as opposed to an expert witness a discussion on how separation of parts of the statement, which considers the results in the forensic process can help to counter cognitive context of the case and includes a scientist’s bias). This can also lead to the application of the full expert opinion of what they are likely to Code for Crown Prosecutors and subsequent mean. At the lowest level, for example, SFRs that presentation of the evidence at court becoming report a ‘hit’ on the National DNA Database far more complex than it could be are prepared by police officers. At the next level • Reducing the scope of scientific input to a up – for instance, if a reference sample profile is series of tests chosen by others, with no time compared with a crime stain profile – a scientist or opportunity for scientists to advise on the will be involved,although the output will still be a testing strategy, risks narrowing their skill and purely factual SFR. knowledge base It is obvious to many practitioners in the • Focusing on increasingly fewer types of test – field that these changes have been successful in such as DNA, fingerprints and digital forensics dramatically reducing police spending on external – may be inevitable to some extent; but it is forensics. But they have also had a number of also effectively de-skilling scientists. This risks the unintended consequences that pose a risk of prospect that critical knowledge and practical miscarriage of justice. These were highlighted skills will diminish, and not be there when they in the 2014 report of the Independent Police are needed Commission12, and Angela Gallop and Jennifer Brown in their 2014 paper entitled ‘The Market Additionally, in the authors’ experience there Future for Forensic Science Services in England is an extended use of factual SFRs as evidence and Wales’13. They include, for instance: in contested cases, rather than their originally- • Dangers from the mere selection of which intended purpose as the staged form of items are to be examined, and for which evidence or advisory documents (as per the types of evidential traces. To minimise costs, Criminal Procedure Rules). it is clearly critical to test as few items as is As we engage with these challenges, a necessary. But it is equally critical that items reduction in funding for legal defence teams THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CASE STUDY

A PARADIGM SHIFT IN UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

NIAMH NIC DAEID, Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification, University of Dundee

n 2009, the US National Academy of Sciences understanding and direction. produced a report – ‘Strengthening Forensic There were two principal outcomes from the Science in the United States: A Path Forward’1 second Royal Society event. The first was borne – that provided a robust critique of many of out of a drive initiated by the Lord Chief Justice the techniques used within forensic science. The of England and Wales, supported by the senior INAS report (as it has become known) essentially judiciary from across the UK, that the scientific exposed the stark reality that much of the forensic community should engage more effectively and evidence currently presented in our courts had efficiently in the communication of science to little, if any, scientific underpinning. the judiciary and the public (who form the jury). To catalyse a long overdue disruption to the This project is now under active discussion in forensic science ecosystem, Sue Black and Niamh a partnership between Niamh Nic Daeid and Nic Daeid from the University of Dundee secured Sue Black, the Royal Society, the Royal Society of 20 funds from the Royal Society to host a 4-day Edinburgh, the Lord Chief Justice of England and international event in February 2015. The first 2 Wales and other partners, with the objective days were an open scientific conference2 where to develop scientific primers for use within the expert forensic scientists from around the world courtroom. and senior members of the judiciary discussed The second outcome from the Royal Society the current health of the community and why the event was the unanimous agreement to source an warnings of the NAS report appeared to have urgent solution to halt the decline in confidence been largely ignored. The output from this event attributed to the poor or inadequate scientific was an anniversary edition of the Philosophical foundations of some forensic science. Participants Transactions of the Royal Society B3. The meeting identified different types of forensic evidence, was attended by representatives of one-third of in current use in the court, which caused all police forces in the UK, the UK forensic science them concern regarding the robustness of the providers, government agencies, professional bodies, underpinning science. This resulted in a list of 40 45 universities and a range of industrial partners. evidence types ranging from interpretation of A further 2-day closed event4 then followed complex DNA profiles through to gait analysis. for selected participants and invited guests. This Participants ranked these in order according to was an extraordinary meeting, facilitated through value to the court, and used a novel Research a business modeling approach that generated Gap Analysis Tool (RGAT) to further interrogate a ‘strategic conversation’. In our experience, the top 10 evidence types according to five pillars research scientists, forensic practitioners and the of assessment: detection, recognition, comparison, most senior judiciary had never before spoken interpretation/evaluation and communication. so freely and openly about the type and nature This highlighted that in almost every case, of scientific evidence being used in courts and deficiencies were most evident in the comparison, their shared concerns about the scientific frailty interpretation/evaluation and communication of some of that evidence. What followed was a aspects of evidence delivery. This has provided crumbling of the barriers across the discipline- an agreed launch pad for the development of specific silos within the forensic science ecosystem a novel, disruptive and visionary pathway for – a genuine effort to see things from the forensic science research requiring strong research perspective of others, and to derive a common leadership to ensure delivery and sustainability. FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT

to commission checks of the prosecution’s in terms of driving down the cost of services, scientific evidence means that the safety net of reducing case turnaround times, maintaining proper independent peer review risks growing quality and inspiring innovation, through market increasingly thin. competition and professional variety. Without Adding to the risks is the fact that there is this, police spend on forensics would have been currently no requirement for forensic scientists much higher, and it is arguable whether some to be individually accredited. It is still perfectly of the most complex, high-profile cases would possible for a scientist with an impressive have been solved (including, for example, academic or industrial pedigree to present those of Damilola Taylor, Rachel Nickell and themselves as an expert without a proper Stephen Lawrence). But the market remains understanding of operational facts of life, fragile in areas (see Chapter 2 case study p29). and how context can turn scientific findings Providers are engaged in what some of them on their head. An attempt to establish such privately describe as ‘a race to the bottom’ an accreditation body – the Council for the commercially (i.e. that the market is becoming Registration of Forensic Practitioners (CRFP) – overly competitive, with the dangers that was abandoned when it became apparent that standards will slip or that firms will withdraw it was unlikely ever to be self-funding. Other from the market). And the provision of forensic countries (e.g. the Netherlands) have accepted science to the criminal justice process is that such funding is a state responsibility. But increasingly fragmented, having been allowed the UK relies instead on aspects of the quality to evolve with insufficient strategic focus or systems in place in some laboratories, and direction, and without effective consultation of voluntary adherence to codes of conduct and all relevant stakeholders. practice. This is unlikely to be sufficient to The closure of the FSS in 2012 could be allay concerns about scientists caught up in the regarded as an early example of, amongst 21 prosecution ‘machine’, and experts ‘for hire’ by other things, the harshness of the forensic the defence. science market. The House of Commons Much has been learned in recent years Science and Technology Committee report1 particularly from the work of Itiel Dror about on the Forensic Science Service in 2011 the consequences of a range of cognitive biases, concluded that its “dire financial position or the risk of confirmatory interpretation of appears to have arisen from a complex scientific evidence (see Chapter 4). Important combination of factors, principally the shrinking experiments have been conducted with both forensics market, driven by increasing police fingerprint and more recently DNA experts, in-sourcing of forensic science services, and which show that their conclusions can be a forensic procurement framework that has influenced by the information with which they driven down prices and does not adequately were initially supplied. We need to work hard recognise the value of complex forensic on developing a better understanding of this services”. When the FSS closed, there was risk, and finding cost-efficient ways to ensure apparently little that could be ‘saved’ of any potential bias is filtered out – in relation to the organisation which had hitherto been experts for both the prosecution and defence. servicing approximately 60% of the external forensic requirement. We are aware of other CONCLUSIONS casualties in the market, and of concern about The UK has a proud and illustrious history in the wisdom of investing in it at the current forensic science. It has shown that it can take time – as predicted by the 2013 report on bold and imaginative steps and make them forensic science by the House of Commons work. It is still the only country (in England Science and Technology Committee, in which it and Wales at least) to have privatised all of commented that “there is great concern about its forensic science services for the Criminal the future of the forensics market and that Justice System (apart from fingerprints, for forensic science providers may not be willing historical reasons, and the recent trend to invest further in a shrinking market”2. towards law enforcement in-sourcing). In our view, the UK urgently needs a national Privatisation has been a resounding success, strategy covering all aspects of forensic science THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

to ensure that it is: one of the most important here is the US • Reliable and unbiased National Academy of Sciences (NAS) whose • Used in the most efficient and cost effective 2009 report commented on precisely the way same sorts of concerns that we have described • Makes the most of new developments in here14. The report made 13 recommendations, techniques and methodology which can usefully be summarised as follows: • Reflective of the needs and purposes of all 1 Create a na tional institute for forensic stakeholders sciences • Properly funded for the job it has to do 2 Standardise terminology and reporting practices Unity will be a key element in building the best 3 Expand rese arch on the accuracy, reliability, environment for the continuing success and and validity of forensic sciences value of science and scientific methodology, 4 Remo ve forensic science from administrative namely via the following qualities across all the control by police or prosecution relevant sectors of forensic science: 5 Suppor t forensic research on human • Communication observer bias and sources of human error • Consistency 6 Dev elop tools for advancing measurement, • Collaboration validation, reliability, information sharing, and • Clarity proficiency testing, and establish protocols for • Common standards examinations, methods and practices 7 Require mandatory accreditation of all The factors that work against achieving forensic laboratories and certification of all this unity include: the different investigative forensic practitioners 22 techniques used across 43 police services; the 8 Labor atories should establish routine quality different applications of the law (prosecutors, assurance and quality control procedures Counsel and Judges); the very wide range 9 Estab lish a national code of ethics with a of understanding of forensic science among mechanism for enforcement ministers and their advisers; and the media’s 10 Suppor t higher education in forensic role in explaining forensic science and its graduate programs to include scholarships implications to the public. and fellowships One approach could be to defragment the 11 Impro ve the medico-legal death-investigation forensic science community itself. This would system enable more cost-effective training mechanisms 12 Suppor t Automated Fingerprint Identification for all applicable agencies, particularly for System (AFIS) interoperability through law enforcement officers and prosecution development of standards lawyers; more commercially effective business 13 Suppor t the use of forensic science in planning (within a free-market model); and, homeland security most significantly, it could lead to a coherent streamlined UK-wide strategy for research The impact of science on society is profound: and development to future-proof the use transport, communications, nutrition, housing, of forensic science. This would support the energy and security could not be what they are continuation of three vital objectives: without generations of dedicated scientists and • Re-positioning the UK at the forefront of support from those who believed in, and funded, (forensic) scientific development their innovations. • Enabling the best use of scientific innovation The diversity, utility and powerful impact on and scientific methodologies in the future society that forensic science now offers must • Preserving confidence in the legal system and come with a corollary duty to ensure that it the Rule of Law. is properly used, properly understood and properly funded well into the future. At the very To achieve this, we must learn the lessons least, a just society depends on good science from the past, from other people who have being used for the benefit of all. considered the same issues at length. Perhaps 23 THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CHAPTER 2 FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE

GARY PUGH, Director Forensic science is highly successful at solving crimes, eliminating the innocent from of Forensic Services investigations, and bringing offenders to justice. But there is a growing need for ‘real- at the Metropolitan time forensics’, providing accurate and reliable evidence in minutes rather than days. Police Service The underlying technology is already emerging, but bringing that vision to fruition will require better coordination between research organisations, forensic service providers, law enforcement officials and the Criminal Justice System, underpinned by a robust and deliverable forensic science strategy.

orensic science is one of the most widely contribution, allowing forensic science to play a known and least understood areas of significant role in identifying potential suspects scientific endeavour. The interaction where there are no investigative leads has a match between criminal investigation, justice rate of over 60% with DNA profiles obtained from Fand science is a complex dynamic with its own samples taken from a crime scene or victim1. With unique set of challenges, but it offers one of the a shift to cybercrime and the dramatic proliferation strongest safeguards in the Criminal Justice System of digital devices, the relatively new area of digital against false allegation and wrongful conviction. forensics is now becoming an integral part of many Although the end user of forensic science in the investigations and prosecutions (see Chapter 7). Criminal Justice System is ultimately the courts – However, the core forensic process of assessment, or indeed the jury – the vast majority of forensic retrieval, analysis, interpretation and presentation of 24 science activity takes place much earlier in the expert evidence is essentially the same for digital criminal investigation process. forensics as it is for traditional forensics. If there is From the initial report or allegation of a crime, one constant in the practice of forensic science, forensic practitioners are engaged in gathering it is that it is changing and evolving in response to evidence and establishing whether a crime has different challenges and opportunities. These are been committed. Throughout an investigation, examined in more detail in three case studies in forensic science will be used to establish the this chapter, which outline the different perspectives sequence of events, validate the accounts of of commercial forensic service providers (see p29), witnesses and victims, eliminate and identify academia (see p30) and policymakers (see p27). potential suspects and provide the basis for a criminal charge. Once an individual has been CHALLENGES IN FORENSIC SCIENCE charged with a criminal offence, the forensic Some branches of forensic science – such as the practitioner will consider alternative scenarios, identification of illegal drugs or the classification and will also be the subject of close scrutiny and of a firearm – are obligatory, and limited law challenge within our adversarial criminal justice enforcement activity could occur without system. There are, of course, a large number of them. Moreover, the information gathered from crimes in which forensic science does not feature identifying illegal firearms and drugs has an (such as minor theft). But crimes where there important role in informing our understanding of is a significant physical interaction between the this criminality, helping to frame legislation aimed suspect and the crime scene or victim can provide at deterring or reducing crime and minimising the greatest opportunity for forensic science its impact on society. The challenge for law to solve the crime, eliminate the innocent from enforcement is to ensure that forensic science is investigations, and bring offenders to justice. focused on those crimes and opportunities for In cases involving serious violence, sexually- detection that will provide a useful outcome, given motivated crimes, and acquisitive crime such as the current climate of limited and reducing funding. burglary or vehicle crime, forensic science has As powerful as DNA profiling has become in its made a long-standing and significant contribution. sensitivity and power to discriminate individuals, The introduction of forensic databases of the major challenge today is to identify the DNA fingerprints and DNA profiles has enhanced this of the criminal against a background of DNA from FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE

the victim, or a range of other individuals who may IF THERE IS ONE CONSTANT IN THE have visited the location of the crime. If the DNA cannot be associated with a particular body fluid PRACTICE OF FORENSIC SCIENCE, or cell type, or cannot be related to a particular IT IS THAT IT IS CHANGING AND activity, then the best DNA science in the world will have little relevance to the investigation of a EVOLVING IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENT crime by law enforcement agencies. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES. As well as providing a useful outcome for law enforcement, the challenge for forensic science practitioners is to produce results in minutes and hours, rather than days or weeks. The sooner provision of forensic science within a wider strategy. an offender is identified and apprehended, the This is needed not only to manage risk, but to less opportunity they have to commit more exploit the agility and access to innovation that crime; earlier intervention may also reduce future is available from the private sector. However, the offending or divert individuals from a career of commercial relationships between police forces crime. The most recent advances in Automated and commercial providers are not mature, and Fingerprint Identification Systems (AFIS), rapid are based on transaction rather than partnership. DNA profiling devices, drugs analysers and digital- This is the result of a procurement framework device data-recovery kiosks provide the prospect based on standardised products that do not allow of ‘real-time forensics’ that will change not only for innovation or integration between public and the forensic operating model but the policing and private providers. To ensure a sustainable forensic investigative models. science provision, it is important that commercial providers are viable and successful businesses: COMMERCIAL CONSIDERATIONS consequently, the commercial sector needs to have 25 The UK is the only country in the world to have long-term clarity about the demand and capabilities introduced the commercial provision of forensic required by the police service and Criminal Justice science. This can be traced back to April 1991, System in order to make investment decisions. when two keys changes were made: the formation Real-time forensics will require close of the Forensic Science Service as an executive collaboration with commercial companies agency of the Home Office, combining the six and relationships that are based on long-term Home Office Forensic Science Laboratories and a partnerships. The current provider base will need Home Office Central Research Establishment into to change fundamentally, reducing its reliance on one organisation; and the introduction of direct conventional DNA profiling as a revenue stream charging for forensic science services. in favour of a different business model based on The advent of direct charging followed a period service integration and on-site or remote testing of crisis in the late 1980s where staff shortages and analysis. This change will need to be managed and backlogs led to forensic examinations taking with the commercial sector as partners, but with many months to complete. Prior to being given a clearly-defined role and purpose that allows for agency status, forensic science was funded on the major structural change within forensic science to basis of capitation i.e. the number of police officers realise the benefits and reduce costs. or establishment. The move to direct charging was not to introduce a market, but to change the EXPERT EVIDENCE basis of funding so that police forces would be free There has been keen interest from senior judges to spend more on forensic science, allowing for in the progress of forensic science, not least from capacity to increase. the Lord Chief Justice; the admissibility of expert So the commercialisation of forensic science was evidence was the subject of a very thorough and by accident rather than design, and the formation detailed review by the Law Commission2 . The of a stable and sustainable commercial forensic judiciary and forensic practitioners have a common provision is not an end in itself. While commercial purpose in delivering accurate and reliable expert companies will have an important role to play in evidence, with quality being non-negotiable. The forensic science delivery and improvement, there establishment of an independent Forensic Science needs to be a clear purpose for the commercial Regulator in the UK – the first in the world – is a THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

THE JUDICIARY AND FORENSIC provision of forensic expert evidence. Organisations cannot give evidence, but they do provide the PRACTITIONERS HAVE A COMMON framework within which expert evidence is PURPOSE IN DELIVERING ACCURATE delivered in most areas of forensic science. AND RELIABLE EXPERT EVIDENCE, WITH COMMUNICATING FORENSIC QUALITY BEING NON-NEGOTIABLE. RESULTS Despite these frameworks, there still remains the challenge of evaluating and communicating the significance of forensic results, particularly where strong signal of commitment to ensure the accuracy they are the product of statistical or probabilistic and reliability of expert forensic evidence. The interpretation (see Chapter 4 case study p50). Forensic Science Regulator has developed the Over the past twenty years, much thought Codes of Practice and Conduct3, which provide has been given to the evaluation of forensic the quality-standards framework for the delivery evidence, drawing on the Bayesian inference (see of forensic services to the Criminal Justice System Annexe 1) and seeking to ensure that expert – these apply to all individuals and organisations opinion is robust, logical, objective and based who undertake forensic examinations. The on sound reasoning. The introduction of a regulatory framework is important because it puts probabilistic approach to DNA expert evidence, responsibilities on organisations as well as individuals. using match probabilities such as ‘1 in a billion’, This is a significant and far-reaching change because has caused some difficulty in the courts. In a it introduces accountability on senior leaders landmark ruling in 1997 in Regina v Doheny & (Directors and Chief Officers) to ensure that Adams the judge stated6: 26 accurate and reliable expert forensic evidence is put “… to introduce Bayes’ Theorem, or any similar before the courts. method, into a criminal trial plunges the jury into Alongside the development of the forensic inappropriate and unnecessary realms of theory regulatory framework, the criminal justice system and complexity deflecting them from their has defined the duty of an expert witness and proper task” how expert evidence should be provided to Forensic practitioners and lawyers have a long the courts as set out in Rule 19 of the Criminal way to go to reach a common understanding and Procedure Rules3. An expert must help the court to a unified approach to the evaluation of forensic achieve the overriding objective of justice by giving evidence. After all, what does the average jury an opinion that is objective and unbiased. Justice member understand by the difference between 1 includes acquitting the innocent and convicting the in a million and 1 in a billion? guilty: it is not the role of forensic staff to support The UK was at the forefront of developing the prosecution or the defence. Rule 19 has been a framework for evaluative reporting of the further supported and enhanced by the Criminal results of forensic examination, analysis and Practice Direction5, published in July 2014, which interpretation. This is based on the principles of incorporates many of the recommendations of balance, logic, robustness and transparency, as set the Law Commission review on the admissibility of out in the recently published European Network expert evidence in criminal proceedings. of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) Guideline While considerable thought and effort has gone for Evaluative Reporting in Forensic Science7. into developing the forensic regulatory framework This framework is based on identifying at least and the provision of expert evidence, these two two competing propositions, representing the important frameworks for ensuring the accuracy and prosecution and defence positions. The forensic reliability of forensic evidence have been developed practitioner evaluates the forensic results at in isolation of each other. There needs to be some source and activity level. acknowledgement within the Criminal Procedure • Source level would apply to the results of DNA Rules of the forensic regulatory framework; of profiling or a fingerprint comparison, and relate organisational responsibilities; and of the need to to propositions such as the claim that a person achieve accreditation. Accreditation demonstrates was not inside a premises. The competing a level of control, commitment and rigour in the propositions could be that “the bloodstain came FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE

CASE STUDY

THE POLICYMAKER’S PERSPECTIVE

AMANDA COOPER, SRO Digital Policing and Science, Home Office

he Home Office is responsible for glass. A kitchen window and an internal glass door had policymaking and legislation for been broken and computer equipment and phones the use of forensic science in law stolen, along with the keys to the family car. When a enforcement. We advise ministers crime scene investigator (CSI) attended the scene of the risks and opportunities in this area, as well as they identified that the offender had cut themselves Trunning the national DNA and fingerprint databas- and left blood on the internal door. es. In that context, we see our role as setting the The blood from the internal door was deemed strategic direction rather than influencing operation- suitable for processing using RapidHIT® and a result al policing directly. was obtained from a speculative search of the DNA For example, we support and encourage police Database within a few hours. The search matched to make the most of the opportunities offered with a suspect already being held in custody, but who by the Police Innovation Fund (PIF). Worth £70 was denying any involvement in the crime. Once the million for 2015/16, the PIF is designed to incentivise potential forensic evidence obtained from RapidHIT® 27 collaboration, support improved police ICT and was put to the suspect he admitted to the burglary. digital working and enable Police and Crime As a result of this, the police were able to recover the Commissioners to invest in other innovative delivery majority of the stolen property and return it to the approaches with the potential to improve policing rightful owner. and deliver further efficiency in the future. The rapid result enabled the offender to be All bids are subject to a robust and objective charged and remanded to court the next day, assessment against the published criteria. This therefore reducing the officer’s investigative time and involves an initial panel assessment, followed costs, and avoiding the costs of any bail. Overall, the by further consideration by a senior oversight time from a CSI attending the scene to charging an group that provides advice to ministers. All of individual was approximately 48 hours. the successful bids have the potential to improve Alongside ensuring that a new piece of technology efficiency and contribute to improved value for can be effectively used in the investigation of crimes, money for the taxpayer. the role for policy is to ensure the wider consideration For example, Lancashire Constabulary was of areas such as legislation, market impact, regulation, successful in its bid for innovation funding to pilot and Criminal Justice System (CJS) efficiency and RapidHIT® DNA profiling. This technology can reforms. All of these areas need appropriate handling, deliver a DNA profile within 2 hours, which is then and any changes to methodologies across the supply speculatively searched against the National DNA chain of investigations must be considered in the Database. If a match is obtained, it is verified by context of systems thinking. conventional DNA profiling of a duplicate sample. Addressing how aspects of forensic science in the Lancashire Constabulary is currently in year 2 of CJS are governed and organised is a core element of their pilot and is using it to process blood stains from current work on the Home Office Forensic Strategy, crime scenes in cases such as burglary and vehicle particularly the regulation of activities, the early crime. There have been a number of successful support on experimentation and the introduction of outcomes using this technology. For example, new technologies and applications. Achieving this in a RapidHIT® played a pivotal role in the case of a way that keeps pace with technology development recent residential burglary. The resident had been and with changing crime types and crime modus asleep but was awoken by the sound of breaking operandi is a key objective. THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

from the defendant” or “the blood stain came operational and business models that is needed to from an unrelated individual”. deliver significant improvements. • At activity level, the forensic practitioner There have been major technical advances addresses more complex interpretative issues in fingerprint search algorithms, next-generation about the actions of individuals in committing sequencing, facial identification and digital or being the victim of a crime. This will require forensics. To harness and coordinate research and knowledge and understanding of persistence, development of these technologies, and to develop transfer and background levels of forensic contact the real-time forensics capability, there needs to traces such as body fluids or gun shot residues. be an academic effort that draws together and This knowledge can be used to evaluate the coordinates universities and research organisations. evidence, by assigning probabilities to the findings We could also look to international collaboration: for (given each of the competing propositions) to example, the EU 2020 Horizon programme offers produce a Likelihood Ratio. This is of greater the opportunity to work with European forensic value to the courts, but the forensic practitioner agencies. needs to have a full understanding of the context For policymakers in government, the goal of the case, and what is alleged by the parties must be to come forward with a coherent involved. To bring some consistency to the strategy – or at least a strategic framework – for evaluation and expression of the value or weight the development of forensic science in the UK, of the forensic evidence, forensic experts can use recognising all of its complexities and challenges. a verbal scale that is based on a Likelihood Ratios Central to this is the next generation of science and ranges from “no support”, to “moderate and technology that will deliver rapid results and support” through to “extremely strong support” offer a wealth of information about criminals for one proposition over the alternative. It will from the contact traces they leave on the victim 28 take some time for the courts to fully embrace or at the crime scene. This will also bring to the this approach but in my experience there is fore the importance of ethical and human rights wide acceptance and support for this across the considerations to the forensic arena (see Chapter forensic profession. 9 case study p100). The growth of cybercrime will also see radical changes in the role of forensic CONCLUSION science and the need to develop new tools and Forensic science constitutes a relatively small part technologies to apply the traditional forensic of the overall scientific effort in the UK. As such, it process to the virtual environment (see Chapter 7). has never sustained a substantial academic research The common theme for policymakers who are base, instead relying on innovation in other fields (e.g. developing a strategy for forensic science is the medical, pharmaceutical or semiconductor sectors) need for a consistent and corporate approach to and then adopting new technologies as they emerge. delivery, development and governance across the However, this situation has reached a low point forensic science sector. This does not necessarily in the last five years, with a small and fragmented mean a single organisation, but it does argue research base in forensic science that does not allow strongly for a means of engaging all of the partners for the effective development and implementation within a governance and strategic framework of large-scale innovation and the application of that allows for the delivery and development of new science8. There is no central government forensic science in a way that sustains the current organisation that has a track record in delivering capability, improves performance and knowledge innovation in forensic science and expert evidence sharing, and reduces cost. This will require a much to the Criminal Justice System. greater degree of government coordination and Given the range of scientific and technical collaboration between professions to deliver developments in other fields, the focus for innovation stability, innovation and change. The benefits are in forensic science should be to take advantage of substantial and achievable – but the risks of failure, science and technology that already exists or to resulting in the degradation of forensic capability in develop science that is well advanced (see Chapters England and Wales, are equally substantial and will 16 and 17). What is lacking is an organisation or be much more costly. structure that will translate this to forensic science and bring about the transformational change in FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE

CASE STUDY

THE COMMERCIAL PROVIDERS’ PERSPECTIVE

ROGER ROBSON, Managing Director of Forensic Access

t is difficult to accurately determine the cases. It also raises significant concerns about a revenue generated by the UK commercial growth of unsolved cases in the future. forensic services industry. As awareness There are also growing questions about how of the relevance of forensic skills in other much responsibility the police should have for industries increases, and technology develops, there providing independent, unbiased and objective Iis undoubtedly a broader range of customers. scientific evidence. The US National Academy of This might be expected to result in an increasingly Sciences’ report ‘Strengthening Forensic Science in buoyant UK commercial forensic market. the United States: A Path Forward’3 recognised this In some areas that is certainly the case. However, as a problem back in 2009. As I write this case study, the largest influence on the market is inevitably the UK government is currently drawing up a much- exerted by its largest customer: the police service. needed strategy for forensic science provision over Following the closure of the Forensic Science Service the next 5 years. in 2012, the police rapidly accelerated its in-sourced Meanwhile, the profession remains determined 29 forensics capability and reduced its out-sourced to overcome the current difficulties. The financial capability1, and it seems likely that this trend will cuts have prompted a sense of urgency for research continue. and implementation of new technologies. It This decision, together with a reduction in remains extremely difficult to get funding for basic recorded crime and further cuts in forensic research into forensic science projects, but this has spending, has contributed to an increasingly fragile encouraged collaboration between commercial commercial market. In 2013, this was recognised providers, industrial and academic partners. Apart as a significant risk by the House of Commons from improving services through competition, the Science & Technology Committee2, and in my view commercial providers have also formed associations nothing has happened to change this since then. such as the Association of Forensic Science Providers While venture capitalists consider their options as and now work in unison on certain projects. the UK commercial market continues to decline, Markets inevitably change over time, with those remaining companies in the UK market are provision of services dictated largely by customer now chasing overseas business to remain profitable. demands. Commercial providers have to respond Indeed, the Science and Technology Committee2 increasingly quickly to meet the changing trends and commercial forensic-service providers are asking in crime and counteract new tools used by the questions about whether the UK market will survive. criminal fraternity. At a time when we have so much The reduction in market size2 has been new technology to bring to forensic science, we accompanied by a shift in emphasis between need to remember the importance of a holistic different forensic disciplines. Traditional areas such approach that helps to ensure that we use the right fires, firearms and trace evidence (such as paint, glass techniques at the right time in the right sequence and textile fibres) have dramatically decreased in to ensure reliability, robustness and value for money favour of DNA and fingerprints, and the exponential from forensics. If these are lost, it would damage our growth of digital forensics. Consequently, not only Criminal Justice System and public confidence in it. is the market much less attractive to potential investors, but it may be more difficult to put together the elegant scientific investigation strategies that helped to solve some of the UK’s most high profile THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CASE STUDY

FORENSIC SCIENCE IN HIGHER EDUCATION

GERALDINE FAHY, University of Kent

he Quality Assurance Agency for consist of two groups: generic standards and Higher Education (QAA) defines area-specific standards3. The problem is that forensic science as “the application myriad disciplines can combine with the term of science to serve the purposes ‘forensic’, making it extremely difficult to teach of the law”1. Rapid changes in forensic science ‘forensic science’ in a university setting. In reality, T– stemming from policy responses, increased there is no single subject called ‘forensic science’, commercialisation and the advancement of and attempting to educate students under this scientific techniques2 – have led to an increase in umbrella term produces a lot of people with undergraduate and graduate courses in overview knowledge of different subjects, but forensic science at UK universities. But these with insufficient detailed practical experience in courses suffer from a mismatch between what any of them. is taught and what the industry actually requires, For example, the only career path that 30 which urgently needs to be addressed. Given utilises the majority of focus areas covered in an that tomorrow’s forensic scientists are those we undergraduate forensic science course is that train today, it is paramount that we get these of a Scene of Crime Officer (SOCO). However, academic courses right. even this job requires further training that is Universities are businesses, and often use specific to the police force you work for, and a degree in forensic science as a selling point in some cases a degree may not be necessary to help feed the constant demand to increase to get a SOCO position. As a result, most student numbers. Courses with a ‘forensic’ prefix universities try to ensure that their graduates appear more attractive and are often easier have learned transferable skills that increase their to market than chemistry or biology courses. chances of gaining employment, often outside At undergraduate level, these courses offer an forensic science. overview of a wide range of laboratory and The rapid rise in forensic science field techniques such as microscopy, analytical undergraduate courses across the UK means chemistry, DNA analysis, ballistics, fire and that increased learning and teaching quality explosives, trace evidence, incident investigation is vital, particularly at a time when so much and expert witness training. Some undergraduate attention is paid to accountability in teaching courses, and many postgraduate courses, also across UK universities3. Courses already need provide an opportunity to learn more specialised to be accredited by The Chartered Society of disciplines such as forensic anthropology, Forensic Sciences (CSFS), using standards that archaeology, botany, entomology, odontology, cover the main aspects of incident investigation podiatry, digital forensics, and so on. and digital forensics4. However, the applicability of Yet there are currently no requirements these standards and their correspondence with for both A-level biology and chemistry for the the QAA forensic science benchmark criteria are majority of UK forensic science undergraduate not always clear-cut. For example, while digital courses. Consequently, a large amount of the forensics is an area that has grown rapidly in first year at university is spent training students recent years, and is itself an area of accreditation in basic laboratory skills. QAA benchmark under the CSFS, it is only touched upon briefly standards for forensic science education at in the QAA guidelines and remains a small part undergraduate and graduate levels essentially of most general forensic science undergraduate FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE

COURSES SUFFER FROM A MISMATCH BETWEEN WHAT IS TAUGHT AND WHAT THE INDUSTRY ACTUALLY REQUIRES, WHICH URGENTLY NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED. GIVEN THAT TOMORROW’S FORENSIC SCIENTISTS ARE THOSE WE TRAIN TODAY, IT IS PARAMOUNT THAT WE GET THESE ACADEMIC COURSES RIGHT.

courses. That makes it virtually impossible for lack of job opportunities (even unpaid) and an undergraduate student on a forensic science the associated high cost to either a student or 31 course to fully grasp this technologically complex a university, this is unlikely to be feasible. The sub-discipline without completing a specific second option is to do away with courses digital forensics course. with the generic title ‘forensic science’ and At the heart of the problem with forensic focus more on subject-specific forensics at science courses is a distinct lack of understanding undergraduate level: forensic DNA analysis, between educators and course developers, and forensic anthropology, forensic toxicology, and so the forensic science industry. While more and on. Retaining the ‘forensic’ prefix should ensure more universities and programme convenors that courses remain attractive, but offer a much have links to industry, and ask for input towards greater depth of training and experience. course design, many develop courses based on programme outlines of similar courses in other universities, or using the QAA Forensic Science benchmark standards, none of which address real-life needs of forensic science providers. Additionally, resources and course learning outcomes required by universities can sometimes limit the amount of practical training that undergraduates receive. The ethos of forensic science is that no two scenes or incidents are the same and should be viewed without preconception. However, many forensic science role-play activities in universities concern standard ‘common’ scenes and incidents. There are two ways forward. Firstly, if the content of forensic science undergraduate courses remains the same then a year in professional practice must be included as a standard component. However, given the distinct THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CHAPTER 3 ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION

JOSEPHINE BUNCH, Quality assurance (QA) demonstrates that methods are fit for purpose before they are National Physical implemented, and ensures that they remain so during use. This is underpinned by an Laboratory increasingly well-defined quality system, overseen by the Forensic Science Regulator (FSR). Additional confidence could be realised by awarding statutory powers to the FSR, as well as implementing further regulation to assure the skills of practitioners and providers.

uality assurance (QA) refers to selection, instruction and use of experts. Recent the range of practices employed updates to the criminal justice procedure rules to ensure that measurements provide guidance around the validation of and evidence are reliable, methods used by witnesses1. Qincluding internal and external quality control. The importance of quality assurance QA demonstrates that analytical methods are procedures in forensic science is now well fit for purpose before they are implemented – recognised, and confidence in forensic science 32 this involves an assessment of the equipment, and forensic science providers is underpinned standard operating procedures and the provision via an increasingly well-defined quality system, of trained staff who make judgements about overseen by the Forensic Science Regulator their findings. QA also provides ongoing (FSR). Forensic quality standards in the UK evidence that the methods remain fit for comprise two international standards (ISO17025 purpose. for accreditation of laboratory activities2 and For all laboratory-based methods, assurance ISO17020 for scene of crime analysis3) and procedures should be based on a system of the FSR Codes of Practice and Conduct, which standards, validation and accreditation. Where detail the requirements of forensic service required, measurement traceability ensures that providers at organisational, technical and all steps in a procedure can be queried and practitioner levels. Expert witnesses are bound validated by reference to documented results, by the Criminal Procedure Rules and Criminal calibrations and standards, through an unbroken Practice Directions4, which work alongside the chain of comparisons that all have stated FSR Codes of Practice and Conduct to increase measurement uncertainties. Forensic science the overall assurance of forensic science quality. laboratories or providers have a significant This framework provides a mechanism to role in providing reliable and credible evidence objectively demonstrate the reliability, accuracy that may be presented as part of a criminal and limitations of methods, and the competence investigation or a trial. of the organisations supplying forensic science. Forensic science providers may be private companies, government agencies, public THE FORENSIC SCIENCE organisations, academic research departments REGULATOR and law enforcement agencies, based in the The post of FSR was established in 2007 and is UK or internationally. The majority of expert currently held by Dr Gillian Tully. The Regulator witnesses for forensic science are engaged by the is a public appointee, sponsored by the Home police at the investigative stage of a criminal case. Office, who ensures that the provision of However guidance from the Crown Prosecution forensic science services across the Criminal Service (CPS) also provides prosecutors with Justice System (CJS) is subject to an appropriate practical guidelines on issues relating to the regime of scientific quality standards. The ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION

Regulator has jurisdiction throughout England CONFIDENCE IN FORENSIC SCIENCE and Wales; the Scottish and Northern Irish authorities follow the Regulator’s standards on AND FORENSIC SCIENCE PROVIDERS IS a voluntary basis5. The Regulator does not have UNDERPINNED VIA AN INCREASINGLY statutory powers to enforce compliance, and the government has undertaken a consultation on WELL-DEFINED QUALITY SYSTEM. whether this should be the case6. The Regulator’s priorities and aims5 are to see that forensic science services are delivered to appropriate standards and that they are carrying out laboratory activities mandated that tailored to meet the needs of the CJS. To FSPs hold ISO 17025 accreditation with respect achieve this, the FSR recommends certain to all DNA profiling and fingerprint enhancement aspects of quality and working practice, typically work. The UK opted out of these EU criminal by requiring providers to work in accordance justice measures, removing the legal obligation to with internationally recognised quality standards. comply with the ISO standards. However, national Forensic service providers are then subject to policing leads have independently agreed that all independent assessments to ensure that these police facilities undertaking these services would, requirements are met. The FSR collaborates in fact, comply with the stated requirements on a with the authorities in Scotland and Northern voluntary basis. Ireland to achieve UK-wide quality standards. An important role of the FSR is to represent the UK ISO STANDARDS AND FORENSIC in European and international quality initiatives. SCIENCE The Forensic Science Advisory Council (FSAC)7 ISO is the world’s largest developer of voluntary advises and supports the regulator, giving advice international standards, providing specifications 33 on many issues, including monitoring compliance for products, services and good practice, with with laboratory quality standards, standards the aim of helping to make industry more relating to national databases, and validation of efficient and effective10. ISO standards are new technologies. developed through an international consensus The Regulator requires that forensic science and can be can be normative (specifying what providers (FSPs), whether in the private sector or must be done e.g. a particular test method) or within policing, academia or public sector, operate informative (providing information). Standards under accreditation to a suitable international help to ensure that technology and methods standard; and that their laboratory activities are developed and made available for use by comply with the Regulator’s Codes of Practice practitioners in an open and robust manner. and Conduct by October 2017. The ‘Codes The ISO/IEC 17025:2005 standard2 specifies of Practice and Conduct for forensic science general requirements for the competence of providers and practitioners in the Criminal Justice testing and calibration laboratories. The ISO System’8 outlines the quality requirements for accreditation document covers the provision of providers of forensic science services into the opinions and interpretation of evidence, while CJS. It is a firm requirement within the codes the UK Accreditation Service (UKAS) provides that all providers of accredited services shall be additional guidance on the assessment of compliant with ISO/IEC 17025:2005 (ref. 2), and evidence11. for scene work to ISO/IEC 17020:2012 (ref. 3). ISO/IEC 17025 is most easily applied to However, accreditation rules are not consistent objective tests: for example, the determination across all areas of forensic science. Some of drug concentration or blood alcohol level. disciplines have stand-alone codes of practice, In these cases, the measurement method and pathologists, for example, are regulated employed is documented and validated such through a different system. that all appropriately trained staff will obtain Accreditation is also approached on a results with the same stated uncertainties within voluntary basis with respect to EU regulations9. defined, numerical limits. Equipment used to The EU Framework Decision on the make the measurements must be maintained accreditation of forensic service providers and calibrated. Visual inspection, qualitative THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CASE STUDY

UKAS ACCREDITATION: PROVIDING CONFIDENCE IN FORENSIC SCIENCE

MALCOLM HYND, External Affairs Manager, UK Accreditation Service

orensic science plays an essential of staff, the validity of the techniques used, role in the effectiveness of the the suitability of the equipment and the Criminal Justice System (CJS). To appropriateness of the environment where sustain confidence in that forensic examinations are performed. information, it is important to consider how it These standards are not used exclusively for Fis produced: not only in terms of its scientific forensic science, so UKAS uses an additional accuracy, but also to show that samples are guidance document3 (ILAC G19) that details handled appropriately to avoid contamination, further expectations in the forensics area. If and to demonstrate the impartiality and in- the organisation demonstrates that it meets 34 tegrity of the staff undertaking the work. This all the relevant criteria then it will be granted assessment of organisations offering forensic accreditation for specific activities. However, science services is known as accreditation. accreditation is an on-going process that However, the term ‘forensic science’ covers requires annual surveillance visits and a full a multitude of different fields, ranging from reassessment every four years. the conventional analytical techniques used in UKAS is a signatory to international mutual the identification of drugs through to more recognition agreements with accreditation interpretive examinations of handwriting or bodies in other countries, so there is assurance blood pattern analysis. It also covers new and that the forensic science services delivered constantly developing areas such as digital by UK-accredited organisations would also forensics and cybercrime. The challenge for be recognised overseas. In the same way, those involved in accreditation is to define the accreditation bodies in other economies use expectations that must be met by such diverse the same standards and guidance documents, and evolving areas, while offering the same so the results provided by laboratories confidence in the delivered outcome. accredited by them can be equally well-trusted As the UK’s sole national accreditation body, here. This becomes ever more important the UK Accreditation Service (UKAS) visits as crime, particularly cybercrime, transcends organisations that undertake forensic work to international boundaries. assess and evaluate their compliance against Indeed, the fast-moving developments in the internationally recognised standards ISO/ cybercrime present particular challenges for SO/IEC 17025 for laboratories1, and ISO/IEC forensic laboratories and accreditation. For 17020 for scene of crime2. These standards the laboratories, data that can be stored include requirements to implement an anywhere in the world is increasingly difficult appropriate management system, including to identify and access, and ever more complex policies and procedures for internal auditing, encryption methods need to be circumvented. control of documents, management of Accreditation assessments similarly need to complaints and the definition of key roles and keep up with technological developments, and responsibilities. They also include technical suitable technical expertise secured, to ensure requirements relating to the competence that assessments can be carried out from a ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION

STANDARDS HELP TO ENSURE THAT TECHNOLOGY AND METHODS ARE DEVELOPED AND MADE AVAILABLE FOR USE BY PRACTITIONERS IN AN OPEN AND ROBUST MANNER.

examinations and computer simulations are included in the definition of an objective test12. However the standard may also be employed in more subjective analyses, such as the verification position of knowledge. of practitioner skill in fingerprint or footwear In the UK, a mixture of private and mark comparison. These activities, while largely public sector organisations provide forensic subjective in nature, can (with the right training science services. As such, the government and assessment) produce consistent outcomes appointed a Forensic Science Regulator between different forensic practitioners. (FSR) to ensure that all these services Guidance on evaluative interpretation of scientific were subject to an appropriate regime of evidence is also in preparation by the FSR. quality standards. The FSR has, through The FSR’s supplementary information in their Codes of Practice and Conduct4, the Codes of Practice and Conduct provides identified accreditation as a mechanism to additional relevance and significantly extends 35 demonstrate the application of appropriate the usefulness and scope of ISO standards quality standards and has defined clear for use in forensic sciences. Nonetheless, the expectations with respect to accreditation standard covers many important aspects of for all organisations providing forensic assurance, including validating the method is fit services to the Criminal Justice System. for purpose; evaluating the qualifications, training These expectations include deadlines and experience of the staff; maintenance and for gaining accreditation against the core calibration of equipment; sampling practices; forensic disciplines, including body fluid testing procedures; traceability of measurements; recovery, fingerprint enhancement, digital and accurate reporting. As such, it is clearly an forensics, fingerprint comparison, and crime important quality standard for many forensic scene examination. assessments. Accreditation provides an effective A traceable calibration is an unbroken chain framework for providers of forensic of calibration back to a national measurement science services to develop and improve lab and the International System of Units (SI their systems – this results in greater units) of measurement. Through reference consistency, both internally and with to the internationally-agreed definition of their peers. The ongoing assessment by an SI unit, traceable measurements establish UKAS provides independent confirmation confidence in measurement data by ensuring of continued compliance, and has also consistency of measurements. They also enable promoted greater transparency by meaningful comparison with other instruments encouraging organisations to report any or measurement methods, and are essential quality issues. This prompts demonstrable requirements of quality assurance procedures and appropriate actions to deliver further for the highest-level assurance of methods within improvements in their services. the ISO/IEC 17025:2005 standard. While traceable calibration is important for a range of analytical methods (e.g. analysis of drugs, measurement of sample toxicity and DNA analysis), many forensic science activities THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

rely on reference data produced internally to from calibration certificates, manufacturer’s the forensic laboratory or within the forensic specifications, from calculations or from community. These may include comparison published information). against reference samples, or determination of When it is not possible to fully quantify inherent physical properties, for example. The measurement uncertainty, ISO17025 allows validation and traceability of data contained for the identification of sources of uncertainty, within these databases is of critical importance while requiring efforts to minimise these effects. if they are to be used successfully by experts The resulting limitations of measurement must within a court of law in assessing the significance then be disclosed to the customer; effective of forensic evidence. To this end, more could be communication within this matter is crucial done to promote open data policies, increase to promote good public understanding of data transparency between organisations, and the probabilities and uncertainties of forensic enable knowledge sharing. In promoting this measurement, and how the presented activity, it is important to develop and enforce measurements translate into a reliable verdict clear standards for the format of data within when considered with all other evidence. forensic databases, including definitions of The majority of international accreditation measured quantities, declaration of measurement bodies have now adopted ISO/IEC 17025 as units, and standardisation of any required the basis for accrediting testing and calibration metadata (i.e. those data describing the laboratories. This international adoption conditions of measurement). allows countries to establish agreements ISO/IEC17025:2005 requires that “testing among themselves. These Mutual Recognition laboratories shall have and apply procedures for Arrangements (MRAs) are crucial in enabling test estimating uncertainty of measurement” when data to be accepted between these countries 36 carrying out analytical measurements. The UKAS and vital to transnational working within an publication M3003 (2012)13 recognises “the accredited framework. Of particular importance present state of development and application is a multi-lateral mutual recognition arrangement of uncertainties in testing activities is not as called the International Laboratory Accreditation comprehensive as in the calibration fields”. Cooperation (ILAC) Arrangement. ILAC is the However, it states that the “laboratory should primary international authority on laboratory use documented procedures for the evaluation, accreditation and has produced comprehensive treatment and reporting of the uncertainty”. guidelines for forensic science laboratories15. Additional commentary on the uncertainty of In recognition of the interdependence of measurement is provided within guidance from accreditation and metrology, and a need to the FSR (Laboratory accreditation (FSR-G-201 coordinate the actions of the Bureau International Guidance: Validation (2014)14). des Poids et Mesures (BIPM) and ILAC in tasks Assessing measurement uncertainty is an relating to national and international measurement integral part of laboratory quality valuation infrastructure, the International Committee for because every measurement is subject to Weights and Measures (CIPM) and ILAC signed some uncertainty, which should be expressed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in as the quantified doubt about the result of November 2001 (reaffirmed in 2012)16. A Joint a measurement. There are many possible CIPM/ILAC17 Working Group consisting of BIPM sources of uncertainty, including the measuring and ILAC members was established in view of the instrument (e.g. bias, drift, noise), ‘imported’ CIPM-ILAC MoU. uncertainties (e.g. calibration uncertainty, ISO/IEC 17020:2012 (ref. 3), the operator skill, sampling issues) and the international standard relating to crime scene laboratory environment (e.g. temperature examinations, should be read in conjunction and air pressure). Methods for evaluating with ‘IAF/ILAC-A4:2004 Guidance on the uncertainty from individual components include Application of ISO/IEC 17020’ (ref. 15) and uncertainty estimates using statistics (usually ‘EA-5/03 Guidance for the Implementation from repeated readings), and uncertainty of ISO/IEC 17020 in the field of crime scene estimates from any other information (e.g. investigation’18. Several other ISO documents from past experience of the measurements, contain relevant guidance for aspects of digital ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION

forensics, such as ISO/IEC 27037:2012 (ref. 19), The five key requirements are: which provides guidelines for specific activities 1 To comply with the Codes of Conduct and in the identification, collection, acquisition and Practice set down by the independent Forensic preservation of potential digital evidence. It Science Regulator should be noted that this is only a guidance 2 T o ensure that Quality Standards and document and not an accreditation standard. A Assurance processes are applied, which are Digital Forensics Validation Guidance document nationally consistent and compliant with is in preparation by the FSR, due for release appropriate ISO standards, UKAS accreditation, this year. EU directives and clear development and validation processes VALIDATION AND REQUIREMENTS 3 T o provide clear communication and OF THE CROWN PROSECUTION interpretation of scientific processes, SERVICE procedures, strengths, weaknesses and meaning The FSR requires FSPs to ensure that 4 T o engage with Streamlined Forensic all methods routinely employed within Reporting (SFR) process associated with the Criminal Justice System, whether for proportionate prosecution requirements intelligence or evidential use, will be validated 5 T o be fully aware and compliant with Criminal prior to each use on live casework material. Procedure and Investigations Act Disclosure Validation is a critical aspect of quality and Expert Witness obligations, including assurance, and is defined by the FSR as the disclosure of details or algorithms and “confirmation, through the assessment statistical analysis. of existing objective evidence or through experiment that a method, process or device ASSURANCE IN R&D AND is fit (or remains fit) for the specific purpose INNOVATION IN FORENSIC 37 intended. The provider must demonstrate the SCIENCE reliability of the procedure in-house against Future progress in academic and commercial any documented performance characteristics research, and the development of new methods of that procedure”. Establishing the intended for forensic science applications, will require use and limitations of a developed method are new standards to be developed. It is the FSR’s important aspects of validation. A validation role to assist with these activities. The typical exercise should establish key performance development of new ISO standards involves: indicators such as accuracy, precision and 1 Research leading to peer reviewed publication limitation (see Figure 1). 2 Exper imental validation via international inter- The responsibility for validation rests with laboratory studies to establish (i) Repeatability the forensic science provider, not the FSR, and of measurements made by the same method, will be reviewed as part of any accreditation by the same laboratory, by the same operator, assessment by the accreditation body, normally on the same equipment within a short UKAS24 (see case study p34). The Regulator period using identical test material and (ii) should only be informed of the intention to Reproducibility of measurements made by implement a new method if the introduction the same method, but carried out by different of a scientific method has not previously been laboratories, different operators and different employed within forensic science in the UK, or equipment, using identical test material. Inter- where analysis of the impact to the Criminal laboratory studies are used to develop a Justice System suggests a significant change in protocol, which forms the basis of the new capabilities. standard Additional quality assurance is provided by 3 Submission of new work item proposal to ISO the CPS, which requires compliance with the 4 V arious ballots in ISO, development of an FSR’s Codes of Practice and with international international consensus and progression of standards. The CPS has provided a paper draft to published standard outlining the core foundation principles that must inform any providers of forensic science Accreditation of new methodologies can analysis for use in the Criminal Justice System25. be a long and expensive process. The Figure 1: Outline of the validation process for forensic science methods

Determine end-user requirements and specification

Undertake risk assesment of method

Set agreed specification and measurable acceptance criteria

Generate validation plan

Perform validation exercises & establish reliability of the method

Assessment of acceptance criteria compliance

Production of validation report and record of approval 38

Issue statement of validation completion

Pilot testing

Live use on casework material

First CPS case management test Multi- agency review First court case

2011 Home Office ‘Report on Research overcome these challenges by bringing together and Development in Forensic Science’20 those with potential solutions and those who identified the forensic research landscape as have identified the challenges”. In setting up fragmented, and recommended increases in formal collaborative activity, the SiG is helping linkage and communication between forensics address traditional innovation challenges such as R&D stakeholders, in order to drive forward ownership of intellectual property. innovation more effectively. The Forensic Science Changes to existing governance processes in Special Interest Group (SiG) at Innovate UK forensic service procurement might also help has identified a series of sector challenges, and to standardise the approaches undertaken by has set up a Forensic Science UK Innovation different FSPs, and bring new techniques to Database21 to encourage “collaboration to market. The Forensic Market Management ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION

Team (FMMT) within the Home Office runs varying degrees of conformity depending on the the National Forensics Framework, which allows requirements of the end user (the CJS at one end, the police to purchase forensic services from and perhaps consumer protection at the other). private sector suppliers22. Forensic services are categorised into 13 product types (e.g. CONCLUSION DNA, drugs, footwear, and toxicology) and sold The five requirements from the CPS, together with details on the precise nature and level of with the FSR’s Codes of Practice and insistence service required, timescales for delivery, and the that providers adhere to internationally quality and reporting standards to be met. The recognised standards, form the basis of an introduction of the FMMT procurement process increasingly well-developed forensic quality resulted in substantial reductions in the price of system in the UK. International mutual services23. recognition agreements between international In addition, due to the non-statutory nature of bodies of accreditation and measurement the Regulator, in-house forensic services within committees help to ensure that this quality individual police services do not have to follow infrastructure is fit for purpose on a global scale. the same procurement framework as private- The forensics landscape is clearly challenging sector FSPs. Private sector FSPs have raised a from the perspective of assurance, requiring concern that this may result in some in-house guidance for objective and subjective laboratories being able to offer cheaper services assessments, delivered to wide ranging end- by delaying the significant investments required users. An additional layer of confidence in this to meet and maintain the relevant ISO standards, framework will likely be realised through the as it is seen as a cost burden to comply22. If found award of statutory powers to the FSR, essential to be the case, the net result would be market if the FSR is to effectively force providers to distortion unfavourable to the private-sector FSPs, comply with expected quality standards. 39 who would have to squeeze margins to compete Further regulation is also required to on price terms, resulting in a loss of profit available improve the assurance of the quality of skills of to channel back into research and development. practitioners and providers. The UK and Ireland Research and development is a necessarily Association of Forensic Toxicologists (UKIAFT) risky endeavour; the presence of large fixed recommends roles and responsibilities that costs around accreditation of new technologies should be covered by personnel within a forensic can therefore be a barrier to innovation. Forensic science laboratory, and provides some suggested science has parallels to other sectors, such as guideline about the qualifications and experience aerospace and pharmaceutical development, they would expect for staff at different levels, where simple deregulation is not an option due but minimum requirements should also be to safety concerns. In an increasingly litigious and demanded by the FSR. Several organisations risk-averse society, the regulations in these areas offer staff development opportunities: a series tend to become more stringent. At the same of qualifications, as well as other continuing time, this must be balanced by need to drive professional development (CPD) opportunities, technological change for better social outcomes are provided regularly by The Chartered Society in these sectors, which requires streamlining of Forensic Sciences, and The Forensic Science of regulation. In forensic science, it is the goal Society has recently developed a number of of ensuring that justice is served, rather than Certificates of Competence26. maintaining physical safety, that drives the need These provide a mechanism by which for accurate and fail-safe process. individuals can demonstrate their competency, Regardless, there may be significant but to date these have not been widely adopted opportunities for the forensic science community or required by the regulator. Transparent in looking to other sectors that have similar recommendation from the FSR of the minimum high-cost-of-failure markets, to analyse their expected formal qualifications, training and approach to quality and assurance in order to experience of staff within FSPs, and accredited share best practice. For instance, accreditation programmes of training and development, will need not necessarily be a binary factor: one could help further improve the quality of forensic envisage an operating spectrum of assurance with sciences in the UK. THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CHAPTER 4 COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS

ITIEL DROR, University Even with major advances in forensic science, the human examiner will College London (UCL) continue to play an important role in most forensic decision-making. & Cognitive Consultants Forensic work often involves interpretation and subjectivity, and hence International (CCI-HQ) cognitive and human factors are important to ensure high-quality forensic decisions. To maximise objectivity and decision quality, forensic examiners should receive cognitive bias training and should evaluate only contextually relevant information.

he human examiner plays a critical • Selective attention is a fundamental cognitive role in many forensic domains mechanism that allows the brain to focus on (often it is the human examiner some information while ignoring the rest who is the ‘instrument of analysis’). • Chunking information together reduces the Forensic work often involves human perception, cognitive load by changing how information is Tinterpretation, evaluation, judgment and decision- encoded and represented making. Therefore forensic work is shaped by, and • The brain is active in processing information: depends on, cognitive and human factors. These it is not only driven by the data, but uses 40 underpin most aspects of forensic work: from conceptually-driven information processing. In the initial collection and evaluation of data (e.g. at cognitive terms, ‘bottom up’ information (what the crime scene, in determining where and what comes in from the world) is driven by ‘top to look for, and whether the data is of sufficient down’ information (what is already in the brain). value to send to the laboratory); throughout the Top-down information, such as past experience work in the forensic laboratory, where evidence and expectations, governs what information is is interpreted and conclusions are reached; to processed and how it is processed. the presentation in court and to other end users who are the customers of forensic work (e.g. how These, and many other cognitive processes1,2, they understand and integrate the information). enable the brain to function efficiently and Maximising the use and benefit of forensic effectively even though it has limited resources. science, while minimising cognitive bias within The use of such cognitive processes is a forensic work, requires educating practitioners characteristic of human intelligence and develops and implementing cognitive best practices. with experience and expertise. The implications of how the brain processes HUMAN COGNITION information are far reaching. We do not ‘see’ The cognitive system underpins much of what the world as it is (naïve realism): instead, it is we do. How information is perceived, mentally mediated by how the brain processes it, which represented, compared, evaluated, and how we is a function of complex cognitive architecture. reach decisions are just a few of the cognitive Take, for example, Figure 1 – count how many operations carried out in the brain. One of the ‘F’s are in the box (try it). fundamentals in human cognition is that our This illustrates that the human mind is brain and cognitive system has limited resources. not a camera: it does not passively process In simple terms, the amount of information information, it uses past experiences and input for processing exceeds the computational expectations to guide information processing. In recourses of the brain. other words, it is intelligent. As we learn more The brain and cognitive system have adapted and have more experience – as we become to this challenge by developing a variety of experts – we develop, use and rely more mechanisms, including: and more on such processes4 (e.g. selective COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS

FORENSIC SCIENCE FINISHED FILES ARE THE RE Forensic science consists of many different SULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI domains that utilise different types of evidence. FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH However, in many forensic domains it is the human THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS… examiner that is central to the forensic work (this is true in the UK, the US, as well as anywhere Figure 1: Count how many ‘F’s are in the box above (please try before continuing). Most people else that forensic work is carried out). The main see 3 or 4, some 5, but people rarely see all of the reason for this is that there are many subjective Fs: there are actually 6 of them. The reason that judgements that underpin forensic work. many people miss some of the Fs is because we are During initial evidence gathering at the crime experts in reading. Our base-rate experience tells us (via our unconscious brain) that words such as scene, the crime scene investigation (CSI) examiner ‘of’, ‘the’, and ‘a’ do not carry much meaning and is required to make many decisions, most of which weight, and therefore, based on our expectation, are subjective. First, they need to decide where to 3 we tend to automatically ignore them . look for evidence, and what kind of evidence they will look for. The CSI is guided by their experience and expectation. Second, as they look for evidence, attention, chunking information and reliance on they need to determine whether what they have top-down information). It is important to note found is actual data (a ‘signal’ such as blood) or just that these processes occur without awareness: it an artefact (‘noise’ such as dirt). Third, if what they is a cognitive bias, not an intentional bias. find is actual data, then they need to subjectively Although such cognitive processes are effective assess the quality and quantity of the evidence and efficient, they also can lead us astray. By relying to determine if there is sufficient information to on shortcuts, such as using our expectations warrant its collection and sending it to the forensic and past experiences to selectively attend to laboratory (e.g. shoe prints found at the crime 41 some information while ignoring the rest, we are scene can be of such low quality and quantity cognitively biased5. These biases are widespread of information that they do not merit collection, and have many forms5, and only increase with documentation, and having the forensic laboratory expertise4: as we have more experience, we are examine them further). Such decisions are critical, more driven by top-down, conceptually-driven as evidence not collected and sent to the forensic cognitive processes. These processes and biases laboratory is often lost forever. are especially powerful when subjective decisions Once evidence is received in the forensic are involved or when the data is low quality, laboratory, then examiners have to analyse it. ambiguous, and difficult to determine (as is often Often that process is subjective. Fingerprints, the case in forensic evidence). for example, are defined mainly by their minutia Another example of bias is base-rate – the characteristics in the flow of the friction expectation. When experience provides a clear ridge (see Figure 2). expectation of the outcome, then that base- rate expectancy drives our conclusion, even in the face of contradictory data. If X-ray security Figure 2: Different characteristics (minutia) screeners in airports do not encounter bombs, present in the friction ridge of fingerprints (e.g. then they develop an expectation to not find when a ridge divides or ends). bombs, and are therefore more likely not to find a bomb even when it is present in the X-ray. Ridge Ending Similarly, when medical monitors in intensive care units (ICU) sound false alarms very often, Enclosure then the medical staff are likely to ignore them6. The reason for these biases is that, with experience, the brain has picked up regularities Bifurcation in the information it receives and then uses them to guide future information processing. This is effective, but it biases how new information is Island processed. THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

Table 1: The inter-reliability of fingerprinting. Different latent fingerprint examiners looking at the same fingerprints (A to J) lack consistency in the number of minutia they observe7.

Latent Fingerprint

ABCDEFGHIJ

Examiner 1 22 9 15 8 9 3 22 11 7 10

Examiner 2 21 11 25 7 10 9 9 10 6 5

Examiner 3 19 9 18 10 7 9 15 19 6 6

Examiner 4 21 21 29 14 12 9 8 9 4 8

Examiner 5 17 16 15 11 16 9 7 12 5 5

Examiner 6 20 14 22 9 10 7 13 18 7 9

Examiner 7 22 17 15 10 10 8 11 24 8 11

Examiner 8 9 9 19 6 9 8 18 16 9 10

Examiner 9 30 15 25 10 12 12 19 22 12 17

Examiner 10 25 13 18 13 12 10 13 15 7 10

MIN 9 9 15 6 7 3 7 9 4 5

MAX 30 21 29 14 16 12 19 24 12 17

SD 5.49 4.01 4.93 2.49 2.45 2.32 4.25 5.15 2.23 3.54 42 range 21 12 14 8 9 9 12 15 8 12

These minutiae play a critical role in forensic conclude that they were fired from the same fingerprinting. However, their presence is gun, or whether two fingerprints are ‘sufficiently subjectively determined. This is evident by similar’ to conclude that they are from the the lack of reliability and consistency among same person, etc. The subjective nature of such fingerprint examiners (see Table 1)7. forensic decisions arises from the lack of criteria The subjectivity in determining the or definition of what constitutes ‘sufficiently fingerprint characteristic is further apparent similar’. when examining the lack of consistency of With such subjective decision-making, it is expert’s judgements with themselves, i.e. their not surprising that different forensic examiners intra-reliability. Not only are examiners not can reach different conclusions. This pertains to consistent with one another, but the same many forensic domains, including mixture DNA forensic fingerprint examiner looking at the (even when identical procedures are used)9, same print is not always consistent with their and even when statistical tools are used10. own judgment (see Table 2)7. In fact, in about 10% of the time, the same The subjectivity underpinning forensic fingerprint expert, examining the same pair of work is not limited to the perception of fingerprints, will reach different conclusions11. the evidence, but also to the actual forensic Subjective decisions do not only underpin conclusions. In many forensic domains, forensic the comparative forensic domains (where examiners need to decide whether two evidence from the crime scene is compared patterns are ‘sufficiently similar’ to conclude to a suspect), but also include many forensic that they originate from the same source8: for domains, such as blood spatter analysis, forensic example, whether two handwriting patterns anthropology and fire investigations. The are ‘sufficiently similar’ to conclude that they subjective decision-making even sometimes were written by the same person, or whether pertains to domains such as drug analysis two bullet cartridges are ‘sufficiently similar’ to (when one needs to determine if a new COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS

designer drug is ‘sufficiently similar’ to an to determine the source of a blood pattern, a established illegal drug). highly complex and subjective cognitive process. A briefing that it was caused by a gunshot, or a A PROBLEMATIC CONCOCTION briefing that it was caused by a knife stabbing, Taken together, the natures of human cognition influences how they perceive and evaluate and of forensic work produce a problematic the blood spatter. Similarly, if they come to a concoction. Humans are prone to cognitive crime scene expecting it to be a real burglary, bias, and that is especially pronounced when or expecting it to be an attempt at insurance information is of low quality and open to fraud, also affects what evidence is collected different interpretations (as is often the and how. case in forensic evidence) and even more so when subjectivity is involved. That makes 2. At the forensic laboratory cognitive bias a real issue in forensic science, The human examiner at the forensic laboratory, as outlined in a recent briefing to the Houses making subjective evaluations and decisions, is of Parliament12. It is important to note that this often aware of potentially biasing contextual relates to cognitive biases that occur without irrelevant information (such as whether the intention or awareness, and that these issues suspect confessed to the crime, if eyewitnesses pertain to most aspects involved in forensic identified the suspect, whether the detective work13. Below I discuss the potential of biases believes the suspect is guilty etc). Such to affect different aspects and stages of forensic information is irrelevant to the actual forensic work. work, but it is nevertheless highly biasing. The cognitive biases at the forensic 1. At the crime scene laboratory also arise in many forensic Before the CSI even arrives at the crime scene, procedures, such as verification. Often forensic 43 before they actually see any evidence, they conclusions are verified, but they suffer from are briefed. This biases their examination and a number of cognitive weaknesses. First, the decisions at the crime scene. Take, for example, verifications are not blind: the verifier often a CSI who arrives at a crime scene and has knows who did the initial examination, what

Table 2: The intra-reliability of fingerprinting. The table presents the difference between the number of minutia that each expert observes while examining the same fingerprint (A to J) on two separate occasions, i.e. zero indicates consistency7.

Latent Fingerprint

ABCDEFGHIJ

Examiner 1 1 1 4 1 1 2 3 2 0 1

Examiner 2 8 3 5 1 1 2 2 5 2 2

Examiner 3 1 3 3 3 6 4 9 9 1 2

Examiner 4 2 3 2 5 0 1 1 0 0 1

Examiner 5 6 2 2 3 4 1 3 3 0 3

Examiner 6 9 4 2 1 4 6 0 5 1 1

Examiner 7 0 4 5 2 4 3 3 7 0 0

Examiner 8 3 1 4 0 6 2 1 4 2 0

Examiner 9 4 3 9 0 4 4 3 1 1 3

Examiner 10 1 0 0 1 4 1 4 1 0 0

Mean 3.5 2.4 3.6 1.7 3.4 2.6 2.9 3.7 0.7 1.3 THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

TAKEN TOGETHER, THE NATURES how they integrate it within other lines of evidence (see case study, p50). OF HUMAN COGNITION AND RESEARCH ABOUT COGNITIVE OF FORENSIC WORK PRODUCE A BIAS IN FORENSIC SCIENCE PROBLEMATIC CONCOCTION. Until about a decade ago, there was very little research into the performance of human forensic examiners. The issue of whether they can be biased by irrelevant context, as well as they decided and why. Second, identification their inter – and intra-reliability, had basically decisions are almost always verified, and hence not been studied in any depth. However, introduce a base-rate bias (see above). in the past few years we have seen a big increase in researching this area (both within 3. At court forensic science as well as in other scientific The presentation of evidence in an adversarial domains19). legal system is inherently problematic. Although The growing literature includes meta- the court wants to rely on and use science, analytically quantifying the reliability and science is often misused and abused in the biasability of forensic experts20, as well court. Science within the adversarial system as specific research studies showing that is used by the prosecution to make a case irrelevant contextual information can that the suspect is guilty, and by the defence bias forensic examination most often. to make the case that the suspect is innocent. This research includes areas such as face Although prosecutors’ duty is to do justice, not comparisons21, forensic anthropology22, 23 24 25 44 merely to obtain a conviction (see, for example, bite-marks , shoe prints , firearms , the US Supreme Court)14, “There is reason fingerprinting26, DNA9, blood spatter analysis27, to doubt that prosecutors comply with these and fire investigations28. There has even been obligations fully” (this statement was made research into forensic bias in the courtroom, by a US federal appellate judge on the Ninth showing an ‘allegiance effect’ whereby forensic Circuit15), The forensic examiners are often experts’ conclusions depend on which side recruited to help make these cases, and that hired them29. biases the presentation of the evidence. 16,17 It is worth noting that the research The implications for court and the criminal on cognitive bias is complex. First, when justice system (regardless if it is in the UK, participants in the studies are aware that they US, or any other country) are that the are taking part in research and that this is not forensic evidence may be overstated, and real casework, then the contrived contextual its uncertainties and limitations concealed. information is not as powerful as when they Although this should come out in cross- really believe it. Second, when participating examination, in my view that rarely occurs. forensic experts think it is real casework, First, both sides are rarely equal, because the then it is not practically possible to run many prosecution often has far more resources than examiners on a fully-controlled study with all the defence, as well as has better access to the conditions counterbalanced and good control investigative team. Second, many cases enter a groups. Third, fully-controlled studies are plea-bargain or a situation whereby suspects possible, but then they are mostly done with confess to the crime and enter an early guilty students. Fourth, contextual information affects plea, and hence the forensic (and other) perception and cognitive processing, but it evidence is never really questioned. does not necessarily determine the decision The implications of this bias are corrosive outcome. This is dependent on the difficulty of and affect prosecution decisions, plea- the decision (i.e. how close it is to the decision bargaining, the actual trial, as well as threshold), and the strength and direction of subsequent appeals18. Furthermore, at court, the bias. Only when the decision is within the there are cognitive issues that affect how the ‘bias danger zone’3 can bias shift the decision juries understand the forensic evidence, and across the threshold and actually determine COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS

the decision outcome. Fifth, a null finding that case33. Other cases include the UK High no bias was found does not mean that bias Court of Justice Court of Appeal (Criminal was not there – it could have been there Division) quashing a conviction that was based but was not detected, or it may have been on biasing forensic work34. In this case, the absent because of ineffective experimental bias forensic expert initially examining the evidence manipulations. “concluded that there was insufficient detail to Therefore, although the research literature be able to make a meaningful comparison”, but most often finds biasing effects in studies after a suspect had been charged the expert across the different forensic domains, the made a comparison and an identification. This effects are not always straightforward and type of bias is derived from backward and present in terms of decision outcomes. It is not circular reasoning, whereby the forensic expert an easy area to study, and there are a number is biased by the known reference material (i.e. of inherent obstacles in researching it. the suspect who is the target for comparison). Research in this area has also investigated Working backwards from the suspect to the the effects of using technology in forensic evidence in this way is a problem that can be science. It has shown that technology does not addresses by the Linear Sequential Unmasking necessarily solve bias, and may even introduce method (see below). new forms of biases. For example, the use We must remember that forensic evidence of computerised fingerprint databases has is not always challenged in court because of introduced clear base-rate expectations about the limited resources of the defence as well a match30. This base-rate biasing expectation as the prevalent use of plea-bargaining and affects forensic examiners in a number of early guilty pleas. Furthermore, because we ways. First, they tend to spend less time never know the ground truth in casework, it comparing suspects that they do not expect is hard to determine the extent of forensic 45 to match. Second, they are more likely to error. Nevertheless, there is sufficient data to make false-positive decisions (i.e. erroneous show that forensic bias and error do occur identifications) when they expect a suspect to within the criminal justice system. From known match. And third, they are more likely to make miscarriages of justice in the US, 60% included false-negative decisions (i.e. not make correct flawed forensic evidence35. identifications) when they expect a suspect not to match31. SOURCES OF CONTEXTUAL BIASING INFORMATION COGNITIVE BIAS IN FORENSIC Bias comes in many forms and guises5, and CASEWORK it can derive from very different sources. Do these theoretical analyses and research It is important to classify the different findings apply to actual forensic casework? sources of contextual biasing information, The answer is clearly yes, as revealed by as this will enable a better understanding cases with erroneous forensic identifications of bias in forensic work as well as help to and miscarriages of justice. For example, in the US Brandon Mayfield was linked with the 2004 Madrid train bombings after being Figure 3: A taxonomy of the different levels at which task- irrelevant and potentially biasing contextual information may reach misidentified by a number of independent a forensic scientist13, 36. forensic examiners, who all concluded with 100% certainty that he was the match. Level 5: Organizational & Cultural factors However, because of unusual circumstances Level 4: ‘Base rate’ expectations the erroneous identification was revealed and prompted an investigation that concluded that Level 3: Case information 32 confirmation bias was a factor in the mistake . Level 2: Reference materials The biasing effects on forensic casework Level 1: Trace evidence were also revealed in the UK by the public judicial inquiry by the Rt Hon Sir Anthony Campbell, who examined the Shirely McKie THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

THE SOLUTIONS ALL SHARE A COMMON GOAL: TO INCREASE THE INDEPENDENCE OF MIND OF THE FORENSIC EXAMINERS, SO THAT THEY CAN ACHIEVE THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE QUALITY DECISIONS.

devise solutions. Clearly, some context and evidence – a clear source of bias. Finally, the information is needed for forensic examiners fifth level relates to larger contextual sources to do their job, but other contextual of bias: the organisational and cultural factors, information is extraneous and irrelevant to such as the adversarial legal system and being their forensic work. part of the police service (see the allegiance I organise the different sources into a 5-level effect discussed earlier). taxonomy13, 36 (see Figure 3). First is the actual evidence, which may include irrelevant biasing SOLUTIONS context. For example, handwriting analysis may Many of the solutions to the problems raised involve text that includes irrelevant biasing in this chapter do not require additional funds information, voice recognition may include and are practical. In fact, some solutions will tone and content that includes irrelevant enhance forensic decision quality and increase biasing information, and bite-marks may reveal efficiency at the same time. This is because irrelevant information about the nature of the the solutions are derived from understanding crime. human cognition as it applies to forensic work. The second level is the reference material, These solutions are detailed in a number of 3, 36-38 46 the known ‘target’ that the evidence from publications , and many are included in the crime scene is compared against. This the Forensic Regulator Codes of Practice and information is relevant and essential: the Conduct guidance on “Cognitive bias effects forensic examiners cannot do their work relevant to forensic science examinations”39. without it. However, it may cause backward The solutions all share a common goal: to and circular reasoning that can bias the increase the independence of mind of the perception and evaluation of the actual forensic examiners, so that they can do their evidence. This often occurs when the forensic work without interference and bias, and thus examiner works from the target suspect to achieve the highest possible quality decisions. the evidence, rather than from the evidence to the suspect. When examining and analysing 1. Context management the evidence from the crime scene, the target Many of the solutions focus on how to suspect is irrelevant. manage context, providing what I often call the The third level is the case information. “Context Management Toolbox”36. These tools There is a whole array of case information and procedures consider what the forensic that is not relevant to the forensic examination examiner needs and when. in question, but can bias perception, The first and most basic step is masking interpretation, judgement and decision-making. irrelevant information from the forensic Knowing whether eyewitnesses identified the examiners. Hence, information that they do suspect, whether the suspect has previous not need and that is extraneous to their work convictions, and whether the detective believes should be masked from them (see the Linear the suspect is guilty, are all examples of case Sequential Unmasking method below). This information that is irrelevant to any forensic will not only make sure they focus on the examination. information relevant to their forensic expertise, Level four pertains to the base-rate but will also increase efficiency because they expectations derived from previous work. will not waste time on irrelevant information. The forensic examiner has an expectation of In some cases, regardless of the forensic what they will find and what they will conclude domain, it is easy to determine that some case before they even see or examine the actual information (see level 3 in Figure 3) is not COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS

relevant (e.g. whether the suspect confessed of the suspect. to the crime). At other times it is not so clear Some aspects of applying LSU are simple cut: for example, the location of where a gun and straightforward across forensic domains. is found may be relevant if it was hidden for For example, requiring forensic examiners to a long time in a wet gutter, because that may first examine the actual evidence from the impact the patterns of bullet cartridges fired crime scene without being exposed to the from it. ‘target’ suspect is very easy to implement Sometimes irrelevant biasing information without cost or effort, and will enhance is not easily masked, such as those originating forensic decision making by minimising from within the evidence itself (see level 1 backward and circular reasoning. in Figure 3). In such cases (e.g. handwriting Other aspects of applying LSU are and voice analysis) the context is engrained dependent on the specific forensic domain. For within the actual evidence and cannot be example, the analysis and documentation of (easily) removed. However, in other cases (e.g. the evidence is different in DNA analysis (e.g. fingerprints) much of the context is irrelevant, peaks) than in fingerprinting (e.g. minutiae). so the forensic examiner must focus their The complexity and effort in documenting the decision on the actual fingerprint patterns. analysis will therefore also vary. Some forensic Although some contextual information is still domains and certain aspects may be very easy needed – such as the material from which to document, whereas other may be more the prints were lifted, or the method used challenging. to develop the print off the surface – such The final aspect of LSU that needs to be information is mostly not biasing. considered before implementation is the The second step is sequencing the restriction on changes to the evidence post- information. In cases where biasing exposure to the target suspect. LSU suggests 47 information is necessary to conduct the a number of approaches to achieve a balance forensic examination, it is recommended between not allowing any such changes versus that such information will be provided to the permitting unrestricted changes. For example, forensic examiner only when it is needed. For changes may be allowed as a function of example, the ‘target’ reference material (see confidence during the initial analysis, so that level 2 in Figure 3) should only be provided things which were clear during the initial after the analysis of the evidence from the analysis cannot be changed later, whereas crime scene, hence ensuring that the forensic things that were ambiguous can be changed examiner works from the evidence to the (but these changes should be documented). ‘target’ suspect, rather than from the suspect Each forensic domain can determine how and to the evidence. The US Federal Bureau of to what extent such changes are permitted. Investigation (FBI) recognised that backward The LSU involves (sometimes temporary) and circular reasoning from the evidence is blinding to information in the forensic a source of bias and have implemented a comparative process, but other types of sequencing of information approach36. (It is not forensic work should also involve blinding of clear to what extent this, and other anti-biasing procedures, are currently in use in the UK.) The Linear Sequential Unmasking (LSU) SOME SOLUTIONS WILL ENHANCE approach specifies that an examination of the actual evidence takes place first; that this FORENSIC DECISION QUALITY analysis is documented; and only then is the AND INCREASE EFFICIENCY AT THE forensic examiner exposed to the suspect. It further restricts changes that can be made to SAME TIME. THIS IS BECAUSE THE the evidence post-exposure to the reference SOLUTIONS ARE DERIVED FROM materials36. For example, in DNA analysis, the forensic examiners must first characterise the UNDERSTANDING HUMAN COGNITION profile from the biological material found at AS IT APPLIES TO FORENSIC WORK. the crime scene before seeing the DNA profile THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

information. For example, when one forensic verifier to all potentially biasing information, examiner verifies a forensic conclusion of whereas one may not need to use such blind- another examiner, the verifying examiner verifying procedures for simple, self-evident should be blind to various aspects of the first forensic decisions3. examiner’s decision (e.g. what they decided, Similarly, some cases involve highly- why, who made the first decision, etc). emotionally biasing information and a variety Who will do the masking and sequencing of pressures that may influence the forensic of information? Often, one must know a lot of examiner, whereas other cases may have very context in order to determine what forensic limited (if any) biasing information. The need tests need to be done, what information is to have a case manager and to blind case relevant, etc. This could be carried out by a information (level 3 in Figure 3) may depend Case Manager3, who will initially communicate on the existence of biasing information. Hence, with the investigative detective, and know all of a triage approach can determine if and what the available information about the case. The measures are appropriate3. The triage approach case manager will then determine what tests to makes implementing the bias countermeasures run, and what forensic work needs to be done. much simpler and cost-effective. They will assign those forensic tasks to other examiners who will only be provided with the 3. Countering base-rate expectations relevant information they need for those tasks, This is quite easy to achieve by introducing thus masking the irrelevant information. a few examples that change the base rate. Furthermore, the case manager will also In airport security, for example, this may communicate with the police and provide them involve introducing fake bombs into the X-ray with the forensic results, explaining what they screening procedure, a tactic known as Threat 48 mean and how they may bear on the case. The Image Projection (TIP). In the forensic domain forensic examiners doing the actual forensic such measures can be implemented in a variety tests and comparisons will not be part of those of processes. For example, the base rate for communications, and will focus on their specific verifying identifications is very high, and this can forensic analysis. Since the case manager role be countered by including a few ‘similar non- is most interesting, it may be a rotating role matches’ as identifications within the verification among the examiners. stream3. Another example is countering the 2. Triage technology base-rate expectation, by including Another set of solutions involves matching matches in locations that they rarely appear, resources and effort to the complexity of the or by randomising the positions so that there forensic work, and depending on whether it are no regularities of where the technology is within the ‘bias danger zone’3. For example, presents the most likely match3, 30, 31. All of some forensic decisions are complex and hence these measures aim to make sure that the more prone to errors than others. In such cases forensic examiner is cognitively engaged and one may go to the trouble of fully blinding the bases their decision on the actual evidence rather than base-rate expectations. IN MOST FORENSIC DOMAINS 4. Training The best procedures and forensic practices IT IS THE HUMAN EXAMINER will not help if the forensic examiners do not WHO PERCEIVES INFORMATION, accept the need to have them and understand their utility. Since cognitive bias in forensic INTERPRETS IT, MAKES JUDGMENTS science is a relatively new topic, most forensic AND REACHES A DECISION. OFTEN examiners have never received training in this area and have very little (if any) understanding IT IS THE HUMAN EXAMINER WHO of the underlying cognitive issues. Even the IS THE ‘INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS. forensic trainers themselves – those who instruct and teach the forensic examiners COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS

HOPEFULLY WE WILL WITNESS THE INCREASED POWER OF FORENSIC SCIENCE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND TO SOCIETY AT LARGE.

about these issues – are predominately forensic such training also be provided to a variety of scientists, not cognitive scientists, and therefore police forces in the United Kingdom. have little-to-no understanding of the human cognitive system to address the issues of CONCLUSIONS cognitive bias (e.g. they often mistake them as In most forensic domains – from the work ethical issues). at the crime scene to forensic comparisons Therefore, it is paramount that all forensic at the laboratory – it is the human examiner and CSI examiners receive proper training who perceives information, interprets it, makes on the bias and cognitive factors involved in judgments and reaches a decision. Often it is making forensic decisions. This has started the human examiner who is the ‘instrument of to take place: for example, Hertfordshire, analysis’. However, until recently the role of the Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire Police are human examiner has been relatively neglected. providing such training to their CSI and forensic For forensic science to increase its positive examiners. Such training has already had a impact on the Criminal Justice System and practical impact on the way they carry out beyond, it must ensure that cognitive bias in forensic work: by removing possible irrelevant forensic work is minimised. Understanding contextual information, for example, thereby human cognition helps to identify the weak 49 ensuring that forensic decisions are based points and vulnerabilities inherent in forensic on the relevant forensic evidence and are science, and also to develop and implement not contaminated and biased by extraneous biasing countermeasures. Without such information (an aspect of the LSU method). measures, forensic examiners and CSIs will be Such higher-quality forensic decisions benefit cognitively contaminated and biased in their the Criminal Justice System and save costs in work. These biases affect others and ultimately the long run. create a ‘bias snowball effect’37, 38. It is also important to provide training Taking on board the cognitive and human to judges, lawyers and jurors, so that they factors involved in forensic science is long understand the strengths of forensic evidence, overdue, but recent years have seen very but also its limitations and vulnerabilities to fruitful progress in advancing these issues cognitive bias. Such training should include within forensic science. Hopefully this trend the Forensic Regulator Codes of Practice and will continue and increase, and we will witness Conduct guidance on “Cognitive bias effects the increased power of forensic science to relevant to forensic science examinations”39. contribute to the Criminal Justice System and With education in this area, along with to society at large. cognitive best practices, forensic science can increase its contribution to the Criminal Justice System and beyond. However, without acknowledging these issues and implementing training and solutions, forensic work may suffer from a variety of biases. A number of police forces in a variety of countries are undergoing such training (e.g. in the United States, the FBI and Police Departments including those in New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Kansas), have all provided cognitive training to their forensic/CSI examiners. It is suggested that THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CASE STUDY

STATISTICS IN COURT

DAVID LAGNADO, University College London, with contributions from COLIN AITKEN, University of Edinburgh

magine you are a juror in a criminal trial, probability of the hypothesis of interest. in which the defendant is charged with The logically correct method for assault. A key piece of evidence is that incorporating the expert’s evidence into the defendant’s footprint matches a print a judgment about the probability of the found at the crime scene. The prosecution hypothesis is to use Bayes’ theorem, an Icalls a forensic expert, who testifies that approach that depends on an estimate of the the probability of seeing such a match if the probability of the hypothesis before considering defendant was not the source of the footprint the footprint evidence – a concept called ‘prior is 1 in 1,000. Based on this information alone, probability’. what is your estimate of the probability that An intuitive way to understand the problem the defendant left the print? is by casting it in terms of frequencies. Suppose Many people would be tempted to give a that in the absence of the footprint evidence high probability, perhaps even quantifying it as there are 10,000 men, including the defendant, 999 in 1,000. But this line of reasoning is logically in the local area that could have committed flawed – it is an example of the notorious the crime. Given the expert’s statement that 50 ‘prosecutor’s fallacy’, so called because it usually the match probability is 1 in 1,000, we would overstates the prosecution’s case. expect about 10 of these men to match the The prosecutor’s fallacy is not just a print. So the footprint evidence has narrowed reasoning error made by lay people. Legal the number of possible suspects from 10,000 experts such as prosecutors, judges, barristers, to about 11 (10 plus the defendant); this and forensic scientists are also susceptible, and increases the probability that the defendant the error often crops up in media coverage of left the print from 1 in 10,000 to about 1 in 11 legal cases. The fallacy has figured in several (see Figure 1). high profile cases, with convictions being This is a substantial increase, but it is still quashed due to the misrepresentation of the relatively unlikely that the defendant left the evidence. The seriousness of the error has print, given that about 10 other men would been recognised by courts, and instructions also be expected to match. The prosecutor’s have been formulated to avoid the mistake. fallacy implies that the probability the Nevertheless it still seems to be a pernicious defendant left the print is 999 in 1,000, problem, and it arises in many other areas with whereas the correct calculation, incorporating probabilistic evidence, such as medical diagnosis the prior probability, gives a figure closer to 1 and psychological testing. in 11. Note that footprints are used here for WHY IS THIS A FALLACY? illustrative purposes, and are rarely used The expert has told you the probability that in forensic investigations. However, exactly the footprints would match, based on the the same logic applies to DNA profiles, hypothesis that someone else left the footprint. fingerprints, and other kinds of trace evidence This is calculated from an estimate of how rare that are routinely used in court. Also, in the the footprint is in some relevant population. forensic context a ‘match’ often amounts to But this is entirely different to the probability the claim of a correspondence between two that someone else left the footprint, based on items (to within a specified tolerance), but not the evidence that the footprints match. to a claim that they are identical. Indeed, even The former is a statement about the probability two footprints from the same individual will of the evidence, whereas the latter is about the not be identical. COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS

Figure 1. Visual depiction of the suspect population (adapted from ref. 1).

Imagine 10,000 people who could potentially have committed the crime

One of whom is the actual source

But about 10 out of the other 9,999 people have the matching print

Actual source

Not source but matching type

Non matching 51 person

WHY IS THE FALLACY HARD TO someone else left the print, given the evidence AVOID? that the footprints match. Forensic experts can only tell us how well the evidence supports a hypothesis. This leaves Base rate neglect: When updating their beliefs, us with the task of using that information to people often ignore information about how reach a judgment about the probability of the common something is in the general population hypotheses – something that is difficult if left to – known as base-rate information – and give commonsense and intuition alone. too much weight to case-specific evidence. In Extensive psychological research2, 3 reveals that our case, this is tantamount to ignoring the prior when people face difficult probability problems probability that the defendant left the print, and they use ‘cognitive heuristics’ – shortcut focusing just on the match evidence. solutions that can lead to systematic biases. The prosecutor’s fallacy is especially tempting Belief bias: People are more likely to accept because it incorporates several interrelated a fallacious argument if its conclusion fits with heuristics and biases. what else they know or assume. This means that the prosecutor’s fallacy can seem more Attribute substitution: Faced with a difficult acceptable when there are other reasons to question, people often respond with a readily believe the defendant is guilty. available but incorrect answer. Thus the expert’s statement – the probability that the footprint Defaults: People often use default values to evidence would match if someone other than simplify their reasoning. In the legal case, people the defendant had left the print (1 in 1,000) – often assume a 50/50 prior probability, but this is readily taken as the answer to the ultimate assumption is usually unjustified and prejudicial. question of interest i.e. the probability that THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE

CASE STUDY

Explanatory scenarios: People usually reason THE INCREASING USE OF FORENSIC in terms of scenarios and stories rather than probabilities, and often prefer scenarios that EVIDENCE AND QUANTITATIVE best explain the evidence, even if these are PROBABILISTIC ANALYSES MAKES not the most likely explanations. Thus the fallacy is promoted because the hypothesis that IT ESSENTIAL THAT PROFESSIONAL the defendant left the print is clearly the best USERS OF EVIDENCE UNDERSTAND explanation for the match, and yields a more satisfying story. HOW TO INTERPRET AND PRESENT THIS INFORMATION. WHAT CAN WE DO TO ALLEVIATE THIS FALLACY? Ideally, everyone involved in a trial should receive proper training in the probabilistic evaluation However, these approaches are harder to of evidence. But psychological studies have scale-up to more complex problems, especially highlighted various approaches that can also help those with multiple pieces of evidence and issues people to reach better judgments and avoid of evidence reliability. One promising solution errors like the prosecutor’s fallacy. is to use Bayesian networks5, which build on likelihood ratios and Bayesian reasoning. These Frequency formats: Framing the problem in networks provide a graphical representation terms of frequencies (as we did in the example of the interrelations between hypotheses and 52 above) helps people reach more accurate evidence, and can capture issues of evidence judgments and avoid the fallacy. reliability and credibility.6 A key question is whether non-experts need Exemplar cueing: Framing the evidence in to engage with Bayesian computations from first terms of how many other matches are expected, principles, or whether they can be trained on rather than just giving a match probability, makes simpler examples and then learn to trust and people evaluate the evidence more accurately. understand an expert’s explanations in more complicated cases. Visual aids: Using diagrams to represent the What is clear is that the increasing use of relevant populations and show the expected forensic evidence and quantitative probabilistic numbers of matches (as in Figure 1) also analyses makes it essential that professional users improves reasoning. of evidence understand how to interpret and present this information. Verbal scales: We can calculate a likelihood ratio (LR), which compares the probability of the evidence under the prosecution and defence hypotheses (see Annexe pg 207). These LR values can then be converted into a verbal scale4. For example, an LR of 100–1,000 can be expressed as providing “moderately strong support” for the prosecution rather than the defence hypothesis; an LR of 10,000–1,000,000 as providing “very strong support”; and so on. This enables evidential interpretation to satisfy the key characteristics of balance, logic, transparency and robustness. l l l l l l l

SECTION 2: THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

THE CHANGING With a 5% rise between 2013 and 2014, more than 40% of all criminal cases of fraud relate to misappropriation of identity. NATURE OF CRIME Its cost to the UK economy runs close to

£3.3 billion a year Forensic science has a tendency Foreign legal systems towards being reactive; the provide the UK with future for crime reduction is in evidence about crimes, proactive strategies and policies. accidents and natural disasters involving Britons, while the UK is obliged to help investigate crimes committed by British citizens abroad. UK forensic science makes important contributions to international resilience, demonstrated during the Crime no longer has MH17 disaster victim identification process. national boundaries, 54 so international law enforcement conventions have been adopted As the complexity of cyberattacks to respond to the grows, so does the volume of changing nature of crime. evidence that can be collected in relation to a crime.

The global cost of cybercrime is currently more than $400 billion per year In a recent report the cost to the UK of The International cybercrime was Commission on Missing estimated to be The international Persons and Bode Cellmark exchange of DNA data Forensics have tested £27 billion and fingerprints can per year identify trends and spatial 50,000 features in cross-border bone samples and crime and offending. Forensic science data can crime 30,000 be used to inform unidentified human remains prevention strategies. from MH17 to date With a 5% rise between 2013 and 2014, more than 40% of all criminal cases of fraud relate to misappropriation of identity. Its cost to the UK economy runs close to

£3.3 billion a year Forensic science has a tendency Foreign legal systems towards being reactive; the provide the UK with future for crime reduction is in evidence about crimes, proactive strategies and policies. accidents and natural disasters involving Britons, while the UK is obliged to help investigate crimes committed by British citizens abroad. UK forensic science makes important contributions to international resilience, demonstrated during the Crime no longer has MH17 disaster victim identification process. national boundaries, so international law enforcement 55 conventions have been adopted As the complexity of cyberattacks to respond to the grows, so does the volume of changing nature of crime. evidence that can be collected in relation to a crime.

The global cost of cybercrime is currently more than $400 billion per year In a recent report the cost to the UK of The International cybercrime was Commission on Missing estimated to be The international Persons and Bode Cellmark exchange of DNA data Forensics have tested £27 billion and fingerprints can per year identify trends and spatial 50,000 features in cross-border bone samples and crime and offending. Forensic science data can crime 30,000 be used to inform unidentified human remains prevention strategies. from MH17 to date THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CHAPTER 5

THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

PETE MERRILL, National and international law enforcement agencies routinely Head of Science collaborate in tackling cybercrime. Forensic science, in contrast, has failed & Innovation, National to keep pace. If we are to combat the changing nature of crime, we must Crime Agency work together to develop global science toolkits.

e live in a world where crime sources, transit hubs and destinations, global crime threats exploiting free trade zones and vulnerabilities affect everyone, in law enforcement capabilities across different whether they live in jurisdictions. Now, the greatest threat is non- Wa country of supply, trafficking or demand. physical: criminals exploit the internet for International criminal markets crisscross the economic, cybercrime and sexual exploitation planet, transcending cultural, social, linguistic purposes. They co-opt legitimate activities for and geographical borders. These markets criminal purposes, using corruption, coercion are dynamic, sophisticated, highly profitable and white-collar collaborators and enablers and able to adapt more quickly than legal in the private and public sectors to commit counterparts. crimes. Their activities threaten national Crime no longer has national boundaries infrastructures, security and our identities. and an offender in one country can Law enforcement is not as agile in adapting simultaneously commit offences against its operational response to combat these 56 victims in other states, meaning that threats, and forensic science capabilities often national intervention activity often requires lag behind both the investigators’ operational investigators to look beyond their own tempo and public expectations, which impacts borders to protect their sovereignties and confidence and social wellbeing. Although citizens from harm. national and international law enforcement Acting alone to counter crime has become agencies routinely collaborate in tackling the unworkable and, in response, international law growing phenomenon of cybercrime, forensic enforcement conventions have been adopted science has failed to keep pace: it has not to collectively respond to the changing nature embraced the same collective responsibility, of crime, to strengthen security and the rule of giving rise to missed opportunities. If we law, disrupt criminal markets and to strengthen are to combat the changing nature of crime, integrity and anti-corruption activities. we have no choice but to work together to Meanwhile, criminals have diversified develop global science toolkits. and use new ways to carry out the same While law enforcement is striving to crimes, with technology playing a key role. adapt its efforts and capacities to these Traditionally, global crime was physical: it new challenges, forensic science also came in the form of trafficking, starting in needs to transform to keep up with the one continent and ending in another, but changing nature of crime. It should do so by routed through others to disguise its true maintaining and developing its core business, source. Criminals have always chosen the as well as supporting and embracing new safest method of operating, by identifying new ways of working.

NATIONALLY-COORDINATED FORENSIC SCIENCE WOULD BE MORE PROACTIVE IN TACKLING EMERGING CRIME THREATS, AND ABLE TO PROVIDE A MORE DYNAMIC RESPONSE TO LOCAL, NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL THREATS, SUCH AS CRIME IN ACTION. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CRIME MOVES FROM THE PUBLIC THE INCREASED MOBILITY AND SPACE TO THE HOME The new environment in which criminals now ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGY operate – cyberspace – is without borders. GLOBALLY, DRIVEN BY ITS WIDER The principle that ‘every contact leaves a trace’ still applies within the digital and online AVAILABILITY AND FALLING COSTS, cyber world, but the technologies used to MEANS THAT THE NUMBER OF commit, enable and detect crime are not easily transferable within the traditional forensic POTENTIAL VICTIMS OF CYBERCRIME sciences. CAN ONLY INCREASE. The increased mobility and adoption of technology globally, driven by its wider availability and falling costs, means that the number of potential victims of cybercrime expectations of investigators and the public. can only increase. For example, a criminal We live in a digital age, in which technologies anywhere in the world with internet access and applications change almost daily. can pay to watch and direct child abuse via the Investigators expect to have the same level of internet in live-time. This demonstrates that mobile technology available to them in their law enforcement agencies must collectively professional life as they do in their private lives, investigate ‘crime in action’ across geographical and are frustrated when they do not. The and legal territories. The need for collective public can also experience this frustration when responsibility for the forensic analysis of viewing forensic evidence presented in court. technologies and networks is also imperative. Law enforcement alone will not be able to Victim vulnerability, despite enhanced tackle the problem. Corporations, agencies, 57 cybersecurity features and applications, is still government departments, industries and a real threat. Increased web interconnectivity, academics – who all have digital and cyber greater dependency on technology by the expertise but are not necessarily engaged in public and business, the perception that the criminal prosecutions – have a significant role home is a safe environment and that security to play in keeping the public safe. applications will always work – these all aid the criminals. WHAT NEW THREATS DOES THE The ‘Dark Web’ provides a resource where CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM FACE? criminals can access web-based tutorials, Forensic science faces additional challenges in where they can buy instructions, watch digital and cybercrime investigations. Exhibits tutorials and purchase the necessary tools to could have been deliberately damaged hack computers and commit crime, in virtual in an attempt to destroy evidence. They anonymity. This cyberspace can create a are often security-locked, and data can be mental disconnect between the criminal, the obfuscated legitimately for security reasons crime and the real world, because the victims by manufacturers or by individuals using ‘off are faceless and no direct violence is used. You the shelf’ privacy protection and disk cleaning no longer need a gang, guns and a get-away tools. Criminals can also remotely counter law car to rob a bank; an individual can commit the enforcement activity by deleting or creating crime from their bedroom with nothing more false data logs. If done effectively, it is sometimes than a laptop. impossible to recover any evidence of illegal Forensic science faces a considerable activity. Even when it is possible, it requires a challenge in supporting investigations into difficult and lengthy process which increases the technology-enabled crimes in dealing with time between an offence being committed and it the evidential material within cyberspace: the being resolved in a criminal court. physical devices, networks, and embedded Moore’s law states that, over time, computing digital systems. Collection, analysing and power grows at an exponential rate. Yet, while presenting this evidence is difficult enough, the manufacturers of goods and services exploit but it is exacerbated by the technology these technological advances, the forensic tools THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

Table 1: Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) are a technology management tool that provides a measurement to assess the maturity of evolving technology.

TRL 1 Basic principles observed and reported.

TRL 2 Technology concept and/or application formulated.

TRL 3 Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof-of-concept.

TRL 4 Technology basic validation in a laboratory environment.

TRL 5 Technology basic validation in a relevant environment.

TRL 6 Technology model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment.

TRL 7 Technology prototype demonstration in an operational environment.

TRL 8 Actual Technology completed and qualified through test and demonstration. 58

TRL 9 Actual Technology qualified through successful mission operations.

required to investigate their misuse are not mandated with judicial end-user requirements being developed in concert. Meanwhile, the that include accredited laboratories, along with forensic professional’s ability to act as an expert training and application by competent staff – in witness is being narrowed down to specific other words, that these technologies should be fields of activity, which are so complex that ‘fit for court’. But mandating these complex and judges and jurors have little or no concept of costly end-user requirements at such an early the subject matter. stage of technology development can deter innovators. This narrows the field of available HOW CAN SCIENCE KEEP PACE expertise, creates perceived boundaries and WITH THE CHANGES IN CRIME stifles engagement. AND TECHNOLOGY? Although the developers of these tools need The accelerating rate of change of forensic to be cognisant of the requirements of the technology stands in stark contrast to the Criminal Procedure Rules that their technologies pace of the traditional forensic sciences. New would eventually have to meet in the criminal products and services to support forensic justice system, innovators working at the lower science capability go through lengthy end-to-end Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) 1–5 (see quality and validation processes before being Table 1) should be allowed to focus on the used within the Criminal Justice System. But this technical requirements of their systems. Mandating process is not agile enough to match the speed costly base requirements (such as accredited at which new forensic technologies are needed. laboratories) does not incentivise the science and This is most keenly felt at the basic research technology community to provide rapid solutions or proof-of-concept stages. Even at these for development. Instead, it should be sufficient for preliminary stages, funded projects are often them to disclose their basic validation processes THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

before a new method is deemed ready for UNDERSTANDING THE FORENSIC demonstration and operational evaluation for use within the Criminal Justice System. SCIENCE CHALLENGES REQUIRES To keep pace with the changing criminal BOTH A DYNAMIC SHORT-TERM threat, we need a nationally-coordinated governance framework across the forensic APPROACH TO TACKLE CURRENT science community. It should lead an innovation AND EMERGING THREATS, ALONG centre, a knowledge exchange network, and undertake horizon scanning. It should manage WITH A MORE AGILE APPROACH TO the relationship with funding bodies, Innovate LONG-TERM RESEARCH INITIATIVES. UK, higher education, research councils, users and service providers to ensure that they adopt a holistic approach to forensic science. Nationally-coordinated forensic science would convictions, it may not reduce the supply of be more proactive in tackling emerging crime illegal commodities, the number of trafficking threats, and able to provide a more dynamic victims, or curb online exploitation. response to local, national and international Criminals may come and go, but the criminal threats, such as crime in action. It would make markets and the factors that cause crimes better use of available technologies, develop remain. A disruption-only crime-fighting model specialist solutions that meet the standards of will not solve the crime problem. Instead, the Criminal Justice System, recruit specialist understanding the crime landscape will help expertise for national use, and support the agencies to focus on the activities of significant development and training of national capabilities. impact, especially where they span multiple The UK also needs to be better positioned threat areas where intervention will have a more 59 within global forensics. This is a considerable sustainable impact. challenge, because UK forensic science is principally Calls for research in forensic science often focused on the requirements of the UK’s threats, focus on the natural sciences, rather than on its control strategies, and local policing plans. studies of the social and behavioural drivers of European crime and global threats are not seen as crime. These social science questions – which a key driver for UK forensic science – as a result, seek to understand crime markets, entities, the benefits of influence, collaboration and access structures and how they operate – are not seen to funding are not realised. as a high priority. Likewise, the effectiveness Understanding the forensic science challenges of forensic activity on public confidence, requires both a dynamic short-term approach to their understanding of the topic, and their tackle current and emerging threats, along with expectations are vital issues that we need to a more agile approach to long-term research understand in order to be more effective (see: initiatives. This will only be achieved through a The big questions in crime research, overleaf). single forensic science gateway that can connect The current system of funding forensic practitioners from the diverse forensic science science research is clearly biased towards the disciplines and facilitate their collaboration to natural sciences. To be successful in a funding ensure corporate engagement. bid, applications must be driven by an expected output of results and benefits. Projects are COULD FORENSIC SCIENCE BE therefore risk adverse, with little or no flexibility BETTER APPLIED TO TACKLING THE to extend or change their scope. Proof-of- FACTORS THAT CAUSE CRIME? concept bids and social or knowledge-building Forensic science is designed to support the initiatives are rarely funded. Funding is often Criminal Justice System, and to deal with for too short a period; bidding formats differ specific offences committed by specific people. across government departments; and there is a It does not tackle the factors that cause mismatch between the academic and the funding crime, an important distinction. This means and commissioning cycles. that although law enforcement investigate If, as a society, we want to identify and and prosecute offenders, which can lead to understand the causes of crime, we must have a THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

THE BIG QUESTIONS IN CRIME SEARCH

UNDERSTANDING ORGANISED CRIME MARKETS, ENTITIES, STRUCTURES, VALUE AND HOW THEY OPERATE What are serious organised crime activities? Where are they located? Where is their marketplace? Do they actually cross borders? What are their connections? What are their pathways, driveways, motivators and modus operandi? How do they interact with the grey market and other legitimate networks? Are they demand driven? Are there a diverse number of ethnically heterogeneous actors? Do they have an organisational structure or a party base? Do they follow traditional or media concepts? Do we understand what we are up against? Does offender management work? Are criminals more agile than law enforcement? 60 What are the enabling tools and trappings that go with the crime types? Does each crime type have a different network? What value is given to an individual’s reputation? Is the nature of violence in serious organised crime changing? What are the new patterns and crime types?

PUBLIC CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTATIONS

How do we measure success within an environment where public confidence and perception has such a varied range? How do we measure confidence, visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation? What is the definition of public confidence? What are the unspoken expectations? Where are the boundaries of public acceptance for forensic science techniques? What is the effect following a disruption on different communities? Can we define the types of real and virtual communities? How can we actively engage with community experiments? How do you change lifestyle and culture? Can we ‘future proof’ the public against crime? What does civil engagement look like? What factors create an environment of trust? THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

HOW DO WE MEASURE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LAW ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITY? Do we know enough to evaluate the intended consequences of our actions? Is policy effective? How do we measure outputs? How do we measure impact? What types of disruption work? How do we measure the impact following a disruption? How does law enforcement evaluate the threat, balance privacy and morality and operate in an ethical way? How do we manage activity outside statutory processes? How do we identify what is important? How do we keep the focus on the mission? What level of energy does it takes to disrupt crime? Who does it actually affect? How do we best design interventions? Is there a place for conflict resolution? 61 How do we measure intangible and tangible benefits? Can we include measurements from key stakeholders? Should we focus more on cyber or drugs – which is the bigger threat?

national sponsor for fundamental research into policies, organisational cultures, ethical and the social and behavioural sciences. We also human rights challenges. This is keenly felt when need to deconflict the competing priorities it comes to personal data held on national for funding, and take a long-term approach to databases. The difficulties in accessing and using providing an environment that will maximise the national crime-fighting data have never been commercial markets for forensic science, to the satisfactorily resolved. This hampers academic benefit of both the public and private sectors. research so much that it is often too far removed from the criminal investigation to be THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING of value. Better access to crime knowledge and CULTURAL NORMS ON CRIME data is required to provide qualitative research, Public confidence in forensic science, and its while still respecting the challenges associated ability to keep the public safe, are the most with managing confidentiality, security, Criminal important drivers for innovation within forensic Justice System requirements and commercial science. It operates within an environment of considerations. It is also vital if we are to reduce radical uncertainty, where there is greater public the risks of research bias, and to avoid studies scrutiny around its activities, and a greater simply delivering pre-determined outcomes, demand for transparency than ever before. rather than producing genuine insights. As well as being adaptable to the changing All of the examples discussed in this chapter nature of crime, forensic science has to be demonstrate that forensic science needs to flexible enough to cope with the changing adapt more quickly to the changing nature of requirements of the law, political agendas and crime if it to remain relevant, trusted and useful. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CASE STUDY

TROJAN OPENS THE GATES TO COMPANY CASH

OLIVER SMITH, PwC Cyber Threat Operations

magine the following scenario. Police additional information and where necessary are poised to arrest an employee on redirect the victims to bogus sites. Once suspicion of misappropriating company executed, the malware was able to operate funds when an investigative interview undetected, intercepting key information with the suspect reveals a sequence of intended for the banking site. The victim’s Istrange events. Upon closer examination, it banking credentials were transmitted to the transpires that a sophisticated and targeted attackers, giving them access to the company’s attack by cybercriminals had succeeded in bank account. siphoning off close to £250,000 to bank The employee was then presented with an accounts held in Cyprus, Ukraine and the onscreen message stating that his card reader United States. – a device designed to provide an additional Just days before – after starting a new layer of security around the authorisation 62 role in the finance team of a manufacturing of transactions – was required in order company – the employee had received to complete the logon process. Given the an email purportedly from the company’s employee’s unfamiliarity with the new banking bank. This email seemed entirely innocuous, system, he was not suspicious and followed and was one of many other emails that the the instructions. However, rather than being a employee had received from the bank as part step in the legitimate account access process, of the process for setting up their access. the employee had inadvertently provided an However, the email was in fact spoofed, and authentication code authorising a payment to had been sent by a cybercrime group – a a new account. form of cyberattack called ‘phishing’. Targeted The employee was presented with an error phishing emails (i.e. those that may refer message that asked him to try again, and this to the target by name, or contain other process was repeated a number of times in information that may resonate with the short succession until the employee gave target) are referred to as ‘spear phishing’. up trying to gain access to the account. The The email contained a piece of malicious attackers then proceeded to call the victim software (malware) intended to infect at his office masquerading as legitimate bank the employee’s computer with a carefully employees, which resulted in additional bogus crafted program known as a banking Trojan. transfers being authorised (this process is This malware, which is called a ‘Man in known as voice phishing, or ‘vishing’). Although the Browser’ attack, allows the attacker to the bank eventually blocked further payments, not only track and exploit the information it had missed several red flags, including that being entered by a user, but also to ask for the company never made direct foreign

REGARDLESS OF HOW ROBUST A COMPANY’S CYBER DEFENCES ARE, HUMAN ERROR IS OFTEN A KEY ROUTE FOR CYBER CRIMINALS TO GAIN ACCESS TO INTERNAL COMPANY NETWORKS OR SENSITIVE DATA. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

exchange payments, and always used the same intermediary to process any such payments. Cases such as this demonstrate that regardless of how robust a company’s cyber defences are, human error is often a key route for cybercriminals to gain access to internal company networks or sensitive data – and this form of crime is on the rise. PwC’s 2015 Information Security Breaches Survey technical report found that inadvertent human error had caused half of the single worst security breaches for all 63 survey respondents in 2015, an increase of over 60% on 2014 (ref. 1). In this instance, by capitalising on the employee’s unfamiliarity with the bank’s authentication procedures – and his all-encompassing social media profile, which contained his position and contact details – the criminals were able to steal a significant sum of money and even threaten the innocent employee’s liberty. With the benefit of hindsight it was clear that the logon process was different, but at the time it all seemed very normal. As such, employee training and awareness of techniques such as spear phishing and vishing should be seen as crucial elements of any information security and risk management policy. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CHAPTER 6 IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION

SUE BLACK, Centre Identity is a cornerstone of our modern society, and its influence as a central tenet of for Anatomy and our culture will only increase and consolidate as citizens willingly surrender parts of their Human Identification, identity to gain, for example, access to commercial products. The expansive ecosystem University of Dundee of government, science, justice, industry and society must find a way to work together to strike a workable balance between an escalating public demand for security and a laissez faire approach that may expedite identity theft.

dentity and identification are two sides of by the full focus of legislative, judicial, scientific the same coin, but they are, ironically, not and investigative capabilities. identical. Heated philosophical debates on this matter have existed for centuries, ‘POSSIBLY’ IS NOT A HELPFUL and perhaps even from the evolutionary ANSWER Iwatershed when the most narcissistic of all The philosophical concept of identity was species – humans – first discerned a sense of first addressed within the much-debated self1. From then onward, people have sought to three classical laws of logic: the law of identity, guard their identity jealously from others who the law of non-contradiction and the law might wish to steal it; they have also learned to of excluded middle. Of course, in the ideal wield it as a powerful tool for both good and situation identity would follow the simplicity bad, and to raise it as a shield for protection. and pleasing symmetry of Aristotle’s law of 64 There is an inherent need within structured identity (A=A) but this provides no space societies for citizens to be able to prove who for extraneous factors including change in they say they are, and for others to be willing to the predicate (as recognised by Heraclitus) accept that their claim is not only accurate, but or uncertainty in the tools available to the that it reflects who they have always been and evaluator to establish unequivocal exactness will continue to be. If there is any doubt in this (as evidenced by the concept of three-valued concept, then we must attempt to resolve it by logic). Bivalent logic only provides for ‘true’ or presenting and evaluating evidence. ‘false’ values, whereas three-value logic permits The level of trust in this agreement has a third, indeterminate value that occupies the changed over time, and in today’s high-security middle ground between the two finite points world it is probably at its most extreme. Yet at the end of an identity continuum (match or society has always been fascinated by the exclusion). Therefore, while these exquisite concept of identity, of being able to acquire and bimodal philosophical concepts might represent manipulate it, and as a result confuse and fool the holy grail of standards for modern day the unsuspecting. Alexandre Dumas’ 1846 book identification, such rigid inflexibility, which relies ‘The Two Dianas’ was adapted from the real life on certainty or indeed uniqueness, cannot be 16th-century case of identity theft associated achieved realistically. The degree of confidence with a peasant, Martin Guerre, and his that we have in our ability to assign identity subsequent trial and execution. It is interesting to an individual or to a thing must therefore to consider that in today’s world of forensic be predicated on probability and whether science this case would have been solved very the likelihood is closer to confirmation or quickly: and this illustrates that the field is not rejection of identity. Identity as it pertains to static but that it is ever evolving, and one could an individual must therefore, by definition, be a argue that it is now progressing at its fastest rigid bimodal concept (each person is unique); pace. Indeed, the flexibility and manoeuvrability but identification, which is the process by which of identity continues to inspire creative minds, certainty of identity is assessed, occupies the not only in literature and the media but also middle ground of the third value. This conflict those intent on nefarious purposes. Such comes into focus through provision of false criminal tendencies need to be countermanded rejection rates, false acceptance rates and the IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION

bimodal requirement of the Criminal Justice BIOMETRICS BOOM System: is it him, or is it not? Under such Identification is a natural and necessary process circumstances, ‘possibly’ is not a helpful answer. for many forms of social interaction, from Identification must also be able to withstand productive enterprise to personal security, variation not only in time (as an individual ages) but only relatively recently has it become the but in space (identical twins) and therefore subject of articulated government policies. In the complexity with which we not only the wake of events such as 9/11, the London express identity but the mechanisms whereby 7/7 bombings and other security threats, an we detect, recognise, compare, evaluate and increasingly security-conscious society demands communicate it, are complex2. There can be higher standards from our technologies and no doubt that some of the indicators of our our underpinning scientific robustness3, 4. Today, identity are more readily accepted and more this is most commonly achieved through familiar than others, and many have stood biometric analysis and the matching of source, an incredible test of time. However, current intelligence or crime scene data with stored pressures on data security, privacy laws and the reference data5. In an early patent application almost insatiable fervour to capture information for a personal biometric system, Yong Zhu and about identity mean that this has become a colleagues defined a biometric as “a measurable, challenging and fluid environment where our physical characteristic or personal behavioural wish to protect our identity comes into daily trait used to recognise the identity, or verify the conflict with society’s demands for us to reveal claimed identity, of an enrolee”6. The important and relinquish it. word here for security purposes is ‘enrolee’, While the forensic aspect of identification as it requires there to be a stored set of data has very much focused on its role in the against which a comparison may be made to 7 Criminal Justice System, it has perhaps missed a establish a match . This is not always the case for 65 prime opportunity to influence the commercial those in the forensic field, who must interpret market through collaborative innovation and the evidence from a different investigative enterprise. There is a strong value proposition perspective where the owner of the biometric in the forensic approach to identity because it is not known to the investigator. Therefore we offers a degree of scientific, grass-roots rigour have two communities approaching the same that industry might capitalise upon if it is to problem from very different angles. Such an weather the brewing storms of the consumer’s interdisciplinary congruence is a rich ground for ebb and flow in confidence and trust. Early innovation, enterprise and entrepreneurism. discourse, and a trusting environment that But how protective is the consumer of their facilitates collaborative and honest dealings identity and how willing are they to sacrifice from the outset, would stand this relationship it? To gain access to the latest mobile phone, in good stead and prepare it for future criticism for example, one may have to surrender their or adversarial conflict, civil or criminal, in the fingerprint biometric. Should the consumer courts. The need to obviate and manage be okay with that? The ‘Biometrics Market such risk is core to both a robust commercial and Industry Report 2004-2008’ from the marketplace and to the enduring legacy of International Biometric Group (IBG)8 suggested government policymaking, and it is fundamental that fingerprint, face, hand and iris recognition to the principles of citizens’ trust and faith. accounted for almost 80% of the biometric

WHILE THE FORENSIC ASPECT OF IDENTIFICATION HAS VERY MUCH FOCUSED ON ITS ROLE IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, IT HAS PERHAPS MISSED A PRIME OPPORTUNITY TO INFLUENCE THE COMMERCIAL MARKET THROUGH COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION AND ENTERPRISE. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

market in 2006. “It was predicted that by the end extraction, the pattern is represented as a binary of 2013, Automated Fingerprint Identification (black and white) image that can be utilised for Services (AFIS) technology would dominate pattern comparison purposes. According to the the biometric marketplace with around 33% of IBG, vascular pattern recognition constituted the market share but by the end of 2015 this approximately 3% of the overall biometric is closer to 50%, driven by large identification commercial market in 2006 (ref. 8). However, programmes and accessible and affordable the IBG correctly predicted a 300% growth personal security demands.”9. in the use of vein recognition technology by While it is true that fingerprint recognition 2012 (refs 16, 17) and current market share is continues to dominate the biometrics industry, approximately 10%. Like fingerprint biometrics, it is important to realise that it also dominated vein pattern analysis has translated successfully the field of forensic investigation for nearly 100 into the forensic field as an emerging science, years10 until it was eventually relegated into and particularly in the identification of hands second place by DNA analysis11. Both DNA from perpetrators of sexual crime, but more and fingerprint analysis have largely weathered specifically child sexual abuse18, 19 (see case study the adversarial interrogation of the courtroom, on p80) . The legal admissibility of this evidence although fingerprint evidence was recently was granted on the basis that the expert was downgraded from a biometric of ‘fact’ to one of a trained human anatomist who understood ‘opinion’ following the public enquiry into the human variation18. Therefore, vein pattern analysis Shirley McKie case12, and aspects of DNA analysis has successfully crossed from the scientific/ are also coming under greater scrutiny. Biometrics medical world into the commercial marketplace that are not only able to operate successfully as a largely unnoticed conduit, and is now within the security market but can also meet the translating onto the forensic arena with significant 66 criteria of evidential admissibility, are extremely impact. Capturing this sometimes unexpected important and potentially powerful tools for the flow of knowledge and influence between analysis and determination of identity in both disciplines is challenging but offers fertile ground the forensic and the security related contexts13, for innovation. The Law Commission report 14, 15. This border interface between forensic on ‘Expert Evidence in Criminal Proceedings science and the security market is a powerful in England and Wales’20 clearly provides room translational scientific portal where a paradigm within the UK Criminal Justice System for the shift may be accelerated through the unrestricted utilisation and introduction of novel or emerging bi-directional traffic of knowledge transfer and sciences in the courtroom, but it is also clear on collaborative strategic alliances. The development the extent to which opinions and inferences may of new biometrics, and the support of emerging be made in such circumstances. ones, would be greatly enhanced by a strategic First generation (e.g. fingerprints) and working alliance of forensic science experts with second generation (e.g. DNA) forensic-based colleagues in the security industries. identification techniques have a track record in Vascular pattern recognition is a less well terms of evidential admissibility11 that emergent known biometric, but it is predicted to gain technologies must acquire. Developing a strong significant market share after years of being ethical framework is also a critical component to viewed as little more than a niche player. This ensure the success of an approach, both in the approach relies on the infra-red image capture Criminal Justice System and in the commercial of the arborescent (tree-like) pattern of the sector19, 21. Biometrics that can cross between superficial veins, commonly in a finger, the palm both fields raise different issues in the different or on the dorsum of a hand. Through algorithmic locations, but the interchange offers tremendous

WE HAVE TWO COMMUNITIES APPROACHING THE SAME PROBLEM FROM VERY DIFFERENT ANGLES. SUCH AN INTERDISCIPLINARY CONGRUENCE IS A RICH GROUND FOR INNOVATION, ENTERPRISE AND ENTREPRENEURISM. IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION

opportunity for robust and impactful research. THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW Although this is currently little exploited, it is likely to prove a fertile ground for emerging BIOMETRICS, AND THE SUPPORT technologies and new approaches if a productive OF EMERGING ONES, WOULD BE environment can be created and supported. This interface of multidisciplinarity requires GREATLY ENHANCED BY A STRATEGIC freedom to explore opportunities, but its impact WORKING ALLIANCE OF FORENSIC for policy makers through emerging technologies SCIENCE EXPERTS WITH COLLEAGUES and economic growth is largely unaddressed and untapped. The emergence of new technology will IN THE SECURITY INDUSTRIES. not only be useful in the detection and capture of identity, but also in improving the accuracy of our comparative abilities, the solidity of our evaluation and the ease of its communication. Of course the and two years to resolve24. Understandably, there value may not only lie in the use of identity but is a major commercial and governmental drive also in its protection, and if we are to continue to to protect identity, to make theft more difficult, exploit biometrics then we must also think about and to reduce the financial burden on the how to develop a means to protect our identity – economy. This will only increase in importance even if we are prepared to surrender it for goods and prominence as citizens prepare to trade their and services. The opportunities are limited only biometrics, and therefore their identity, as a token. by imagination, but they must be prepared for The commercial answer to increasing security with sound policy and governance. is for the customer to give up their biometrics, but that introduces an element of vulnerability REACTIVE OR PROACTIVE? that has largely either been ignored or poorly 67 Given that identity has a value not only to the understood to date. Investment of resources rightful holder but also to the criminal acquirer, needs to focus on prevention as a longer-term it is inevitable that a black market culture will strategy for this escalating crime. thrive unless prevention and strong gatekeeping A growing global sense of fear and self- also become a focus. Forensic science has a protection has catalysed the evolution of, tendency towards being reactive to the needs and dependence on, biometrics in all aspects of the investigative agencies, whereas the future of our daily lives5 such that it is now forms a for crime reduction must surely lie in proactive very lucrative, buoyant and therefore highly strategies and policies. CIFAS, the UK’s fraud competitive, commercial market. In recent years prevention service, has reported that identity it has started to move away from the traditional theft and identity fraud are among the fastest approach of utilising a token or something that rising crimes of modern times22. With a 5% rise is known (e.g. a PIN number), and towards the between 2013 and 2014, over 40% of all criminal exploitation of biometrics, which are viewed as cases of fraud relate to misappropriation of offering greater security and confidence. The identity. Not surprisingly, there is a larger incidence most common biometrics to be utilised in this in urban compared to rural areas, and major way are fingerprints and facial recognition, and cities including London, Manchester, Birmingham, it is of great concern how readily the public Leicester, Leeds and Glasgow have been identified are prepared to surrender a biometric to gain as hotspots for such theft23. The major purpose access to the latest commercial product. A of identity fraud is to illegally obtain goods and recent survey of CIFAS members revealed that services in the name of an innocent person, and over two-thirds claimed to own an electronic it is believed that the cost to the economy runs device with a biometric security step installed, close to £3.3 billion per year for the UK. It is showing a dramatic rise from the previous year also no longer a crime that can be attributed to where only half responded that their mobiles, a specific demographic in respect of sex, age or laptops, tablets etc required biometric (usually geographical location, and the cost of repair and face or fingerprint) access mechanisms. If this restitution following identity theft is extensive for is the way forward for identification then it is the victim, typically taking between six months imperative that informed discussions occur to THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CASE STUDY

SUPERIDENTITY

SARAH STEVENAGE, University of Southampton

odern technology provides hand being amongst the emerging biometric a myriad of ways to reveal measures under scrutiny (see Figure 1). identity, reflecting both Although the team was at pains to the capabilities of current demonstrate the reliability of each measure devices and the options that individuals have as a cue to identity, using both human and Mto manage their identity. However, threats to automated processing, the real power of the communities, coupled with the price of mistaken SuperIdentity project lay in the fusion of these identifications, make it ever more important that measures. This enabled identification decisions our decisions about identity and identification to be boosted in terms of both reliability and are accurate. The SuperIdentity project was confidence – put simply, the more measures that designed to respond to this need by using novel converge to signal identity, the more confident combinations of information. The result is the one can be in the resultant identification. capacity to make robust identification decisions, Information fusion also enabled the intelligent knowing both the confidence in a decision and use of measures in a different way, allowing the means to increase that confidence. previously unknown information to be predicted 68 Funded by the Engineering and Physical from what was known. This critical shift from Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), the information combination to information SuperIdentity project ran from 2011 to 2015 prediction heralds a powerful new approach and represented a multi-disciplinary endeavour for scientists, with clear benefits in diverse bringing together scientists from the universities fields such as legal investigations, advertising, of Bath, Dundee, Kent, Leicester, Oxford, marketing and more subjective judgements such Southampton and the Pacific Northwest as whether we trust someone. National Laboratories in the US. Its aim was The second notable advance provided by to explore identity and identification through the SuperIdentity project was its consideration traditional and modern measures, with the iris, of measures from both online and physical the voice and particular characteristics of the contexts. In an era when we live our lives as

Figure 1: The hand offers one of the most valuable new biometrics under scrutiny. After measuring hand geometry (left), infrared light reveals the hand veins in much greater detail than is possible under natural light (centre). Viewing the hand under natural light, with veins superimposed, allows both geometry and vein analysis for matching purposes (right). IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION

protect the rights of the individual, the needs of the commercial sector, and the vision for government policy and its enduring legacy. How certain are we of the security of our fingerprint as it is recorded on our mobile device? The research firm Acuity claimed that 2014 was a “bumper year” for the biometrics industry in the run up to Christmas THE MORE MEASURES as shoppers capitalised on mobile payment facilities25. Indeed, research by Visa Europe THAT CONVERGE TO indicated that three-quarters of 16–24 year SIGNAL IDENTITY, THE olds in the UK would feel comfortable using fingerprint scans, facial recognition or retinal MORE CONFIDENT ONE scanning in place of traditional passcodes to CAN BE IN THE RESULTANT overcome the ‘inconvenience’ of having to remember information. This was supported IDENTIFICATION by a recent CSC survey where it was pointed out that the willingness to release security is not a ‘generational’ issue but one of ‘age’ and much online as offline, there is a clear need so this must remain an issue for the industry to be able to identify an individual in either as the views of a population change with context; and, at times, in being able to link an time. Next-generation passwords are also online individual to their offline counterpart. under development with a recent US military The SuperIdentity team have explored the project to develop ‘cognitive passwords’. This 69 reliability of making these links by analysing Application Programme Interface (API) is based the finger gestures used when interacting on the emerging field of behavioural-based with a smartphone, and avatar-user biometrics using algorithms to identify how a resemblances. Links between these measures person accesses their desktop or mobile device and key characteristics such as personality, age (see case study on p68 for more on how the or sex may critically help to narrow a field of relationship between two different forms of search when making an identification. our identity, physical and cyber, may be bridged). The final advance provided by the Behavioural biometrics, as opposed to biological SuperIdentity project was the capacity to biometrics, will always pose a problem for both create a framework to support identification. the commercial and the forensic markets due to The greater the accuracy when identifying the inherent ability to necessitate compensation an individual from any particular measure, for change, and so these are more likely to the more valuable that measure becomes. remain in the realm of ‘intelligence’ related Equally, it also becomes more important information rather than evidence. to protect that piece of information As the ecosystem grows more complex, from unwanted disclosure. Mindful of the there is a move away from accepting single prominence of privacy protection and biometrics as being sufficient to meet the data security, this element of our work needs of heightened security, and the market reflects on both intelligence needs when has geared up towards multimodal biometrics gathering information, and citizens’ needs platforms. The intention is to raise confidence when protecting information. As such, the in the security measures, but unfortunately project reinforces the need to balance our there is also a cost impact26. Increasing technological capabilities alongside individuals’ complexity gives a perception of increased attitudes, concerns and rights to privacy. confidence, and this is largely achieved not only through more robust statistics for matching but Courtesy of Richard Guest, University of Kent, also through the complexities required to spoof and Helen Meadows, University of Dundee the systems, making multimodal approaches less susceptible to attack27. If multimodal biometric THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

access becomes the norm, is the consumer vital that the policy makers, industry, scientists, aware of what proportion of their physical investigative forces and the judiciary work identity they may have to sacrifice in the future together not only to encourage development simply to continue to function in the modern but also to manage and monitor the inevitable world? outcomes associated with a fast paced world. At the core of all aspects of modern PRIVACY IMPLICATIONS identity and identification lies the requirement There is considerable debate at present for an unshakeable certainty of continuity within the different security and biometric of information, and confidence in verifiable communities with regards to the right to robust data. In times past, proof of identity privacy and the security of state-collected lay in document-based evidence: producing a and stored data, and the case study on p71 birth certificate was sufficient to satisfy most considers the importance of this area for needs. However, UNICEF reported in 2000 enlightened and honest debate. The current that approximately 40% of all births were media furore relates to the legitimacy of covert not officially recorded, which may represent capture of faces through recognition software upwards of 50 million babies in a single year. programmes. As we become increasingly On a rolling basis, this is a large number of security conscious, the importance of the individuals who potentially have no officially right to remain anonymous is likely to gain recorded identity. This lack of documentation momentum and will require redress by data may not present as a problem if the individual security and privacy legislation, a matter that remains within the confines of a community was raised in the House of Commons Select where that approach is accepted, but when Committee on 20 November 2014. There is an they move outwith those boundaries – perhaps 70 urgent need to consider and debate the right because of displacement following war or to privacy over the need to manage a secure famine, fleeing from persecution as refugees, society. Are we sure that the Data Protection or as illegal economic migrants – their lack Act is strong enough to withstand the strains, of corroborating identification can become a both internal and external, that manifest as major issue for border controls, immigration our identity comes under ever closer scrutiny? and ultimately the civil courts (when human As we continue to increase our dependence rights are being addressed) or the criminal on biometrics, their security and their legal courts (should the individual either present as a robustness will become a troublesome issue for victim or an accused). public confidence. If we lose our bank card or A birth certificate, whether original or legally our PIN number then new ones can be issued, issued, is a ‘breeder document’ that can be but if our biometrics are stolen then we cannot used to obtain other forms of verification of change our fingerprints – consequently, it identity. As such it carries an inherent value, and becomes much more challenging to prove our consequently a black market demand. However, innocence of a crime in the face of compelling the misappropriation and falsification of such biometric evidence. And if our multimodal documents has gradually eroded the confidence biometrics are stolen, at what point are we no of authorities to accept them without question, longer able to retrieve our identity from the specifically for high-risk activities such as hands of fraudsters and regain control? There crossing borders, opening bank accounts etc. In are many significant challenges ahead for which an attempt to eradicate the need for traditional we are perhaps not yet fully prepared and it is paper-based documents and replace them with

AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY SECURITY CONSCIOUS, THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RIGHT TO REMAIN ANONYMOUS IS LIKELY TO GAIN MOMENTUM AND WILL REQUIRE REDRESS BY DATA SECURITY AND PRIVACY LEGISLATION, IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION

CASE STUDY

MANAGING BIOMETRICS

ISABELLE MOELLER, Chief Executive, Biometrics Institute

he use of biometrics has become giving due consideration to privacy and data an important tool in the discussion protection when they are considering, designing, around security and identity man- implementing and managing biometric-based agement. Biometric authentication projects. has the potential to ease the burden of security, The Biometrics Institute has therefore Tthanks to its simplicity and usability. developed several best-practice documents The Biometrics Institute Industry Survey to help guide members along the way: the confirmed in 2013 that biometrics are at Biometrics Institute Privacy Awareness Checklist a crossroads. They are moving from large- and Biometrics Privacy Guideline (available from scale government use to everyday consumer www.biometricsinstitute.org). applications. Only the responsible use of We are also working on a proposal to create biometrics will lead to successful applications. If a Trust Mark to give consumers confidence in implemented responsibly, biometrics are certainly the responsible use of an identity product or a privacy enhancing technology. service that incorporates biometrics. This will When we provide a biometric or other give biometric solutions providers and operators sensitive personal data, we ask questions about a tool to demonstrate that due consideration 71 trust and control. Governments are typically has been given to privacy and trust during required to put very robust trust models in place planning and implementation. to ensure that end-to-end security is provided, through government accredited networks, compliance processes for privacy, and record- BIOMETRICS ARE AT A CROSSROADS, keeping legislation – all assurance mechanisms MOVING FROM LARGE-SCALE that involve partnerships and processes around GOVERNMENT USE TO EVERYDAY access to data. But in other organisations that end-to-end security and assurance might not CONSUMER APPLICATIONS. exist, an absence that demands far more than just a technology solution. Other key questions relate to control and data retention. What happens to that biometric? Who looks after it, and when will it be destroyed – after a person leaves school, or a particular job? What processes exist for managing any compromise of identity data, for re-establishing confidence in identity, for redress? We have seen many successful implementations where biometrics have helped to transform identity management, privacy protection and identity security. Electronic passports facilitate a more efficient and secure travel experience, while large- scale identity management systems facilitate the delivery of government services to the poor and marginalised. But the public requires assurance that biometric managers are THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

IDENTITY IS A CORNERSTONE OF OUR set of fingerprints, full face photo and iris scan, and were linked to name, address, occupation, MODERN SOCIETY, AND ITS INFLUENCE tribal name and a military grid reference AS A CENTRAL TENET OF OUR CULTURE for where the individual was processed. A subsequent Biometric Enabled Watch List IS ONLY GOING TO INCREASE. (BEWL) collated individuals who had been determined to be possible threats and linked them to biometrics-enabled intelligence. These so-called battlefield biometrics are a new and an identification card supported by multimodal powerful tool in the war against terrorism, but biometrics, India has embarked on an ambitious there are also possible societal benefits that may project to record biometrics in all 1.2 billion emerge. The argument and balance between of its citizens. Each man, woman and child will invasion of privacy and the greater good is receive a 12 digit unique identification number one that still requires honest and open debate, called an ‘aadhar’ as a proof of identity and and it is a brave stance to hold to one without this will be linked to their name, address and consideration of the other in our modern world. biometrics including iris scans and fingerprints28. Care is required here to ensure that biometrics CONCLUSION collected when the person was 16 are still Identity is a cornerstone of our modern retrievable and applicable 20, 30 or 60 years society, and its influence as a central tenet later when they may come into question. of our culture is only going to increase. It If technology accelerated so much in that influences our feeling of safety and security, intervening period that the original databases and exposes our feelings of vulnerability. Our 72 could no longer be searched, then the longevity apparent willingness to part with it for the of the project must be addressed to ensure latest shiny trinket should be of major concern currency and long term accessibility while to governments and institutions – once a retaining the flexibility to advance with new biometric becomes a viable route for identity technology. This is the current problem facing fraud, then the opportunity to recover it the UK’s National DNA Database. Over 720 and secure it becomes exponentially more million identification numbers have been issued challenging. When this is extrapolated to so far in India, and it is expected to exceed 1 multimodal biometrics then the loss of identity billion by the end of 2015. The cost for the into the hands of the fraudster will result in upkeep, security and success of such a system serious and possibly irreversible issues for will make an interesting case study, in terms of law-abiding citizens. This will encroach into the both risk assessment and its role in criminal domain of the policymaker, who must balance activities. The process is not without critics, and an escalating public demand for security, a it is perhaps not surprising that the complex commercial clamour to provide it, and citizens underpinning legislation is still pending in the who are willing to relinquish aspects of their Parliament of India. It is a brave move, and only identity, against a backdrop of criminal potential. time will be the judge of its success and value. A focus on the young and the elderly is The US military project to record imperative: despite campaigns and warnings, biometrics in Iraq and Afghanistan has received they are the most susceptible to criminals considerable criticism from human rights who target the very essence of who we are supporters. Its aim was to record as many and see a value in our identity that many do biometrics as possible from much of the Afghan not understand. The expansive ecosystem population. This information was used to try of government, science, justice, industry and to understand the movement and complexity society must find a way to work together to of the insurgent networks, but it has also strike a workable balance. Identity, identification become an increasingly valuable tool in the and the key players who seek to exploit the workings of the Afghan judicial system and in differences between the two will be a vital supporting progressive local and national social driver in defining and regulating the profile of aid programmes. The biometrics included a full our future society. IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION

CASE STUDY

EMERGING BIOMETRICS IN THE COURTROOM

LUCINA HACKMAN, CHRIS RYNN AND HELEN MEADOWS, Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification, University of Dundee

n the UK, around 16% of children have differences between the image of the offender’s experienced sexual abuse by 16 years of hand and images of the suspect’s hands. age; of these, 95% are abused by someone The anatomical information is based on they know. When an individual is found to compound analysis of multiple features, such as be in possession of indecent images that include scars of accidental origin; knuckle crease patterns Iinstances of the abuse of minors, it is essential to (see Figure 2); superficial vein patterns (which identify the perpetrator. In many cases, the images develop during embryological development); as will not contain readily identifiable features such as well as nail bed morphology and freckle patterns, the face of the perpetrator. But if the perpetrator’s both of which have genetic origins and are also hands or genitalia are captured in the images, new influenced by environmental factors. Comparison research has found that these can support the of these features between offender and suspect identification process. can often provide sufficient information for 73 In addition to well-established biometrics such exclusion of identity. as the ridge detail of the palmar surfaces of the When defendants are confronted with the hands (e.g. fingerprints), other anatomical features results of these comparisons, more than 80% of of the hand are widely accepted as commercial them change their plea. This reduces the time biometric identifiers that can verify an individual’s and money consumed by a lengthy court case identity. Such systems utilise fingerprints, palm- and, more importantly, negates the requirement prints and vascular patterns of the hand (see for vulnerable children to give evidence in court, Figure 1) to facilitate access to secure facilities where they would have to face their abuser and or bank accounts. This information might also relive their experiences. be available to investigators who are trying to compare suspects to the perpetrators pictured in indecent images. Figure 1: When our team from the Centre for Anatomy Superficial vein patterning on and Human Identification (CAHID) investigated the dorsum of the first case of this type in 2007, little research a hand had been undertaken into the individuality or uniqueness of certain anatomical features, in terms of their reliability for forensic human identification. But the knowledge gained from centuries of study into human anatomy suggested that these features were highly variable between individuals. The Figure 2: University of Dundee compiled a database of hand Knuckle creases, nail images, and subsequent studies have created a bed morpholo- core of research investigating the use of such data gy and scars in forensic comparison for identification purposes1. This facilitated methods to make forensic comparisons of anatomical features in suspect and offender images, detailing the similarities and THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CHAPTER 7 CYBERFORENSICS

ANDREW BLYTH, Cybercrime costs the UK an estimated £27 billion per year. The growth in University of South Wales internet use, data storage capacity, cloud computing and encryption all pose MATT JOHNSON, major challenges for cyberforensics. But along with innovations such as block Chief Technology Officer, chain technology, they also offer opportunities for forensic investigators – if Guardtime they are backed by suitable policy and legal frameworks.

ver the past ten years, the number software available from Apple’s App Store. of people connected to the Consequently, Apple has had to remove up to internet has grown to 3.2 billion. 300 applications from the App Store. This has enabled a boom in • In June 2015, the US Office of Personnel Ocybercrime – a range of activities that exploit Management (OPM) announced that it had vulnerabilities in the use of the internet and been the target of a data breach involving other electronic systems to illicitly access or the records of as many as 18 million people. attack information and services used by citizens, Information targeted in the breach included business and governments. personally identifiable information such as The global cost of cybercrime is currently Social Security numbers, as well as names, in excess of $400 billion per year. The cost of dates, places of birth, and addresses. cybercrime is difficult to measure, however, in a • Silk Road was an online black market launched 74 recent report, the cost to the UK of cybercrime in February 2011, and the first modern ‘dark was estimated to be £27 billion per year1. The net’ market. In 2013, the Federal Bureau of growth in cybercrime has led to an increase Investigation (FBI) shut down the website and in the volume of data, and the number of arrested Ross William Ulbricht under charges cyberforensic analyses, involved in investigating of being the site’s pseudonymous founder, a case. In addition, the transnational nature of Dread Pirate Roberts. the internet can hinder the process of acquiring evidence and bringing a criminal to justice. Cybercriminals can range from foreign Recent prosecutions in the UK and US have intelligence services and large organised highlighted the fact that hackers continue to crime groups, to disreputable (but otherwise target credit card details and intellectual property. legitimate) companies and individuals or small In September 2015, Vladimir Drinkman, a 34-year- groups of opportunists. Elements of cybercrime old hacker who hails from Russia, confessed to include: committing cybercrimes before a New Jersey • Extortion (using techniques such as ‘ransom- federal court. His felonies, which cost businesses ware’ and ‘denial-of-service’ attacks) hundreds of millions of dollars in losses, involved • Child exploitation, such as sharing and breaching the corporate networks of major producing illegal images (see case study p80) organizations such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, • Theft of intellectual property, such as trade Heartland Payment Systems, and JetBlue, among secrets and patents at least a dozen others, according to the US • Copyright infringement, such as illicit file Department of Justice. The initial entry was often sharing and forging of software gained using an ‘SQL injection attack’, a simple and • Malicious misuse (including hacking, worms/ well-documented attack that highlights the poor viruses and botnets) level of security exhibited by most corporate • Data protection, such as theft of personal data organisations when connecting to the internet. and credit card details Other cyberattacks worthy of note include: • In September 2015, Apple announced The past ten years has also seen the growth that its development environment XCode of the Dark Web – content hosted on ‘dark had been subverted to make malicious networks’ that require specific software to CYBERFORENSICS

access, thus concealing it from most internet THE GROWTH IN CLOUD users and enabling anonymous browsing and communication. The Dark Web has become a COMPUTING AND CLOUD mature supply chain that supports cybercriminal’s STORAGE SOLUTIONS MEANS activities, selling everything that a cybercriminal needs to engage in a malicious criminal activity. THAT USERS NOW HAVE THE Once successful, the same supply chain allows the ABILITY TO SHARE criminal to sell what they have stolen. Meanwhile, the Internet of Things (IoT) is INFORMATION AND ACCESS expected to reach up to 100 billion objects IT ANYWHERE AT ANYTIME. by 20202. The Internet of Things is the network of physical objects embedded with electronics, software, sensors, and network connectivity, which enable these objects to 1. Acquire collect and exchange data. The Internet As was seen with the investigation into the 7/7 of Things allows objects to be sensed and bombing in London, the volume of data currently controlled remotely across existing network required by law enforcement is growing. In fact, infrastructure, creating opportunities for more this problem can now be viewed as a ‘big data’ direct integration between the physical world problem. Investigators must copy this data bit and computer-based systems, and resulting in by bit – a process known as imaging – to show improved efficiency, accuracy and economic that they have not tampered with the evidence. benefit. From a law enforcement perspective, Then they store the original evidence under lock the Internet of Things also offers a rich and key, and work with the copy (also known as environment within which evidence can be the forensics image). 75 gathered and validated. Cybercrime can involve complex supply The growth in cloud computing and cloud chains spanning the globe (e.g. Silk Road), storage solutions (such as Dropbox, Google using anonymity technologies (such as Tor Drive, Amazon Cloud and iCloud) means and the Dark Web) that allow individuals to that users now have the ability to share purchase everything from malicious software information and access it anywhere at anytime. kits to time on a botnet. As people make This has opened up another important target use of digital storage media with ever-larger for evidence gathering, but it also offers a volumes, it takes much more time to create useful tool for digital forensics examiners, a forensically-sound image and perform a who will be able to send commands through triage on the data inside. This is now starting a cloud environment to other machines, to approach the time available for law producing faster results with little need to enforcement officials to hold a suspect before travel to the scene of the crime. charging them. The growth in the number of devices that make up the IoT (including THE CYBERFORENSIC PROCESS smart meters, smart grids and industrial The standard computer forensic process consists of three basic elements (see Figure 1), each of which contains their own set of challenges. The Figure 1 – The three elements of cyberforensics role and function of the forensic process is to acquire and analyse evidence in such a manner that it can be presented in a court of law. This means that the judge, jury and barristers ACQUIRE ATTRIBUTE must be able to understand and interpret the evidence, which requires an expert witness to educate them while presenting evidence. As the complexity of cyberattacks grows, so too does ANALYSE the volume of evidence that can be collected in relation to a crime. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

THE VERY DEFINITION OF CYBERCRIME The UK’s capability to address this challenge is limited to a few academic centres of excellence, VARIES FROM COUNTRY TO and no law enforcement agencies currently COUNTRY, AS DOES THE LEGISLATION possess this capability. The growth of encryption technology also RELATING TO THE ACQUISITION AND presents a serious technical challenge, with ANALYSIS OF FORENSIC EVIDENCE. the creation of unbreakable ciphers such as AES (256-Bit). Modern USB/Flash technology has adopted encryption as a mechanism to protect person data. The placement of such process control systems) will pose significant technologies within smartphones is now making challenges for this data acquisition process. it virtually impossible to recover data. On 25 September 2014, FBI Director James Comey 2. Analyse criticised Apple and Google for developing The result of the disclosures made by Edward smartphone encryption so secure that law Snowden relating to the level of monitoring enforcement officials cannot easily gain access to and surveillance of people’s activities in information stored on the devices. He said: cyberspace has resulted in an increased use of “I am a huge believer in the rule of law, but cryptographic services. These services range I also believe that no one in this country is from disk encryption and web browsing to beyond the law. … What concerns me about mobile chat programs. The major challenge for this is companies marketing something expressly law enforcement in this area lies in recovering to allow people to place themselves beyond the the cryptographic keys that keep this data law.” 76 secure. One can now purchase encrypting The net effect is that it is getting harder for hard drives, smart phones and tablets that make law-enforcement and intelligence agencies to it virtually impossible to recover data without recover digital evidence from encrypted devices. the presence of the decryption key. The growth in the use of anonymity services 3. Attribute to hide ones identity during encrypted browser The rising use of technologies such as virtual sessions has resulted in the increased need private networks, cryptographic tunneling, for law enforcement to perform ‘live memory’ proxies and anonymity services (such as forensics in real time while the machine is torrents and onion routing) have significantly at the target’s website. With the volume diminished law enforcement’s ability to attribute of data now available to investigators, the an attack to an individual. Moreover, the very time and processing capability required is definition of cybercrime varies from country increasing exponentially. The impact is that law to country, as does the legislation relating enforcement officials need to perform data to the acquisition and analysis of forensic mining on ‘big data’ scales of the order of 100 evidence. The net effect is that the burden billion items. of proof is different in different countries, and The transnational nature of cybercrime the rules of extradition between countries can means that various law enforcement agencies, vary. However, there are efforts to harmonise both within a country and across geographical legislation on cybercrime, such as the Budapest borders, must share their data or intelligence. Convention on Cybercrime3, which entered For example, credit card fraud in one area can into force for the UK on 1 September 2011. be used to pay for cybercriminal or terrorist In 2015, the US government introduced activities in another. an executive order allowing for sanctions The major challenge associated with the to be taken against individuals engaged in analysis of forensic evidence relates to the significant malicious cyber-enabled activities. identification, collection, acquisition and This executive order aims to give the US the preservation of large volumes of digital ability to sanction people that are outside its evidence. The growth of cloud computing jurisdiction, and where the US has little chance and the IoT will only exacerbate this problem. of extradition, by restricting their resources. CYBERFORENSICS

DIGITAL EVIDENCE IS OFTEN A KEY FACTOR IN MANY COURT CASES, GIVEN THE PROLIFERATION OF MOBILE DEVICES, EMAIL, TEXT MESSAGING, SOCIAL MEDIA APPLICATIONS AND DIGITAL CAMERAS.

According to the US president, it provides thirty times to emphasise that each forensic his administration with “a targeted tool for discipline must have a scientifically robust and countering the most significant” threats that validated basis to its methods, its technologies, could be waged against the nation’s critical and its process of interpreting data. infrastructure. The UK has no such framework In April 2015, the Federal Bureau of within which to sanction individuals Investigation (FBI) admitted that microscopic hair analysis contained errors in at least 90% STANDARDS of cases5. Peter Neufeld, Co-Director of the Over the past few years a number of standards Innocence Project, which is affiliated with the have emerged in the area of cyberforensics. Cardozo School of Law in New York, stated: Current guidance from the forensic regulator “While the FBI and DOJ are to be commended states that: for bringing these errors to light and notifying “The provider of digital forensic science many of the people adversely affected, this epic (the provider) shall comply with the Codes miscarriage of justice calls for a rigorous review of Practice and Conduct for Forensic Science to determine how this started almost four Providers and Practitioners in the Criminal decades ago and why it took so long to come Justice System (the Codes) and be accredited to to light.” 77 BS EN ISO/IEC17020:2012 for any crime scene The relatively new discipline of activity and BS EN ISO/IEC17025:2005 for any cyberforensics certainly needs more laboratory function (such as the recovery or foundational science. Many question the results imaging of electronic data)” of initial data-breach investigations for failing Standards such as ISO/IEC17020:2005 and to identify who or what group was behind ISO/IEC17025:2005 provide certification of the crime. After a large data breach, Chief the imaging process, while standards such as Executive Officers grow anxious awaiting an ISO/IEC27037:2012 focus on the identification, accurate attribution, while a news media frenzy collection, acquisition and preservation of lowers stock prices and threatens jobs. The potential digital evidence. recent Sony hacking case, with an indication However, they fail to address the data of North Korean state sponsorship, is just one requirements in relation to: prominent example. • The identification, collection, acquisition and Even more shocking is that some preservation of digital evidence located in the traditionalists fail to recognise digital forensics cloud, the IoT, and social media as a forensics discipline, leaving computer • The presentation of digital evidence in the experts out of national committees in this courtroom important field of criminal justice. Today, digital evidence is often a key factor in many court FURTHER CHALLENGES IN cases, given the proliferation of mobile devices, CYBERFORENSICS email, text messaging, social media applications In recent years, crime labs have faced criticism and digital cameras. Staying ahead of the cyber for a ‘lack of validation’ in a variety of forensics technology curve is an important issue for any disciplines. In January 2015, the US National forensics professional: high-tech apparatus is Commission on Forensic Science stated there used in all the forensics disciplines and requires was “a notable dearth of peer-reviewed, data-centric security and integrity to properly published studies establishing the scientific interpret results. bases and validity of many forensic methods”4. Yet one should question whether computer The term “foundation” was used no less than forensics has really progressed much since the THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

Yet one should question whether computer signatures to link them together. This approach forensics has really progressed much since the underlies cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, but late 1990s in terms its foundational approaches it is also finding wider use in various financial and techniques. There have undoubtedly been services and other sectors (see Chapter 13 case advances in areas such as triage approaches, study p148). mobile devices, write-blocking, enterprise Block chain technology has the potential to forensics to minimize human travel, and internet revolutionize cyberforensics, and can be used to evidence-finding tools. But producing case results prove with mathematical certainty the lineage is still very time intensive, with few mathematical of data, chain of custody, and data integrity. techniques being deployed to aid in accuracy Permissioned block chain solutions such as and timeliness. Keyless Signature Infrastructure (KSI), which is First responders still spend a significant used today for cybersecurity applications, focus amount of time ‘bagging and tagging’ digital media on data integrity and could allow forensics and making bit-by-bit image copies. Then they examiners to understand the sequential chain verify this copy through the use of ‘hash values’ – of events faster and with more precision when a unique number that changes if the evidence is conducting forensics analysis. Proof of integrity tampered with – to show they are exact replicas. and time from a common block chain (with a Given this backdrop, what is the next trend that common clock) enables unified timeline analysis, will modernise cyberforensics? no matter where in the world the data is stored, signed and verified by KSI. This could change the BLOCK CHAIN TECHNOLOGY primary way that forensics examiners approach A block chain is a type of database that gathers their data analysis, producing more accurate and data into blocks, and then uses cryptographic faster results to help resolve insider data theft or 78

Figure 2: Trends in cyberforensics

TIME POINT DETAILS

“The application of computer science and investigative procedures for a legal purpose Defining Digital involving the analysis of digital evidence after proper search authority, chain of 2007 Forensics custody, validation with mathematics, use of validated tools, repeatability, reporting, and possible expert presentation”6

Geo-location and cloud “Examination might require access to computer and network resources involving 2011 forensics expanded scope that may involve more than one venue and geolocation”7

“Employing forensics professionals that hold the credibility of a globally accepted and Cyberforensics 2012 comprehensive certification … provides a strategic advantage for public and private certification organizations”8

Cloud forensics Outlined in US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cloud 2013 challenges Computing Forensic Science Challenges9

Hackers at home and Charges against five Chinese military hackers for cyber espionage signal a new era of 2014 abroad prosecutions by the US Department of Justice for theft of intellectual property data9

Use of block chain Growing recognition of the value that block chain-based technology provides for 2015 encryption cybersecurity, data validation and digital forensics. CYBERFORENSICS

isolate external threats exfiltrating data. The days of spending time making a copy of INTERNATIONAL LEADERSHIP any digital evidence before starting the analysis IS REQUIRED TO CREATE are waning. Faster and more accurate methods INTERNATIONAL CONVENTIONS are now available which include fault-tolerant and anti-tamper features. KSI offers both of these AND LEGAL FRAMEWORKS THAT WILL benefits to preserve important digital evidence. FACILITATE THE DETECTION AND In today’s digital forensics lab, only one machine calculates the validation hash; but in PROSECUTION OF CYBERCRIME. the future, one could use pre-case forensic- ready data systems to compute and assign hash values to all data in the system. Not only could a system have a digital fingerprint for each data System with more transparency of their chain object or file, it could also have a timestamp of custody. There is public demand for more with each item afforded a Keyless Signature. transparency regarding police arrests, and for Keyless Signatures are small and compact (about conclusive results in high-profile data breach 2kB), and are portable and can be imprinted cases. More modernisation that builds on the with the data or stored separately. With KSI’s progress of the past decade (see Figure 2) to common clock, one could understand the chain include industrial block chain encryption could of events better when conducting the forensics cause a leap forward. analysis – especially when trying to reassemble system contexts across multiple geographies. CONCLUSION This supports the mutual auditability of forensic The challenges facing cyberforensics are investigations, ensuring that all e-discovery efforts substantial and require solutions at the technical, 79 are immutable preserved against evidentiary legal and policy levels. The explosion in the items. volume of data and data types that are now Guardtime’s global KSI system is currently available to the forensic analyst poses major operational in partnership with Ericsson, one of technical challenges, and there are still problems the world’s largest telecommunication service to solve in acquiring data from some devices providers. The healthcare industry and the (e.g. IoT), partly due to the volatile nature of energy sector are also showing interest in this data on such systems. technology; and the transportation industry Innovations such as block chain technology (with automobiles, airplanes, ships, and trains can help to meet some of these challenges. But connected to the internet) has similar data- legal frameworks across the world are struggling centric security and safety concerns. to cope with the internet, because it recognises Guardtime plans to have global scale no geographical boundaries. Although recent cybersecurity and forensics services, and is court cases have seen the US government working with a major telecommunications attempt to impose its legal framework on all company to build a global infrastructure for servers owned by US companies, even if located clients to create pre-case hash values with outside of the US, the Supreme Court has Keyless Signatures. This data centric security yet to give its final ruling. What is clear is that system uses Guardtime’s permissioned-based international leadership is required to create block chain and fault tolerant techniques to international conventions and legal frameworks ensure the validation of the original files. (such as the law of the sea) that will facilitate the This technique does not require a client to detection and prosecution of cybercrime. share the content of the files – they only need to use the algorithm to create the hash token. From a cybersecurity standpoint, it can also be used to ensure certain files were not changed or deleted, and that no data was added to a volume without following an agreed rule set. This may help to create a Criminal Justice THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CASE STUDY

CHILD ABUSE IMAGE DATABASE CHRIS FELTON, Safeguarding Directorate’s Online and Digital Lead, Home Office

he Child Abuse Image Database more promptly. More importantly, the saving (CAID) is a national UK policing in police time allows them to place greater system that supports law focus on the search for previously unknown enforcement in the pursuit of victims depicted in the abusive images seized. offenders involved in the sexual exploitation Confidence in the quality of the CAID Tof children, and in seeking to safeguard the dataset, both by the police and the courts, is victims of this crime. The Prime Minister absolutely critical to success. An officer must announced the creation of CAID at the be sure that an image presented as evidence WePROTECT Summit at Downing Street in meets the legal criteria regarding both the age December 2014. of the child and the activity depicted, which Acting on intelligence received, the police can be extremely subjective in some instances. enter a suspect’s premises and seize digital Therefore CAID has incorporated a voting devices that may contain illegal images and system for the categorisation of abusive video. Collectively, the devices seized in a images, which requires an image to receive single case can hold terabytes of data – the three votes in agreement from different 80 task of searching for illegal abusive material, police forces before it is given a confirmed and the evidence that will help to identify categorisation. victims, is daunting. CAID’s database of illegal The search for victims passes through two image signatures can quickly help investigators stages. The offender may also be a contact determine which devices are suspect and abuser, in which case it is vital to identify any should be seized for detailed investigation. images which may have been taken using In order to bring a successful prosecution the offender’s own camera or in premises for making, possessing or distributing abusive available to the offender. The local element images, the police investigator must present of CAID provides the investigator with image evidence to the court about the quantity matching and analysis technology that enables and severity of the images discovered in them to make a rapid risk assessment. If the the suspect’s possession, because this will investigator determines that there are no significantly affect the sentence in the event local victims depicted, then the images can of a guilty verdict. To achieve this, the be uploaded to the CAID national database investigator must sift through many thousands and made immediately available to regional of images in order to categorise them. This is and national victim identification specialists both stressful and extremely time consuming. for investigation using CAID’s powerful image CAID is able to significantly reduce the stress analysis tools. Speed is of the essence in and workload placed on investigators by using the field of victim identification, and CAID its database of known abusive images to pre- delivers the means of rapidly sharing images categorise the contents of the seized devices and related intelligence with the officers best following the original triage. The investigator equipped to tackle this form of crime. can quickly divide the thousands of image files into three groups: known illegal images; known legal images; and unknown images. The pre-categorised images found by comparison with the CAID dataset may be sufficient in themselves to bring a prosecution, thus saving police time and bringing offenders to justice 81 THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CHAPTER 8 THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

TIM WILSON, Rising cross-border crime demands greater international criminal justice Northumbria Centre cooperation. This presents challenges and opportunities for forensic for Evidence and science – which include developing common standards for procedures, Criminal Justice Studies, measurements and databases – to facilitate the efficient sharing of evidence Northumbria University and information. The principle issue for decision-makers is to ensure that UK scientists and technologists can fully participate in shaping the global future of forensic science.

ncreased cross-border crime is an INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE aspect of global change that affects COOPERATION everyday life. This is particularly true The internationalisation of crime takes of cyber and financial crime, but many several forms: other crimes can have an international Idimension. The British diaspora is now 1 Transnational offending: criminal conduct as large as about 10% of the UK resident by an individual in a country that is not their population2, which means that forensic country of birth. All the forensic science evidence or information is increasingly evidence will be recovered in the country received from foreign legal systems, in where the offence or disaster took place, connection with crimes, accidents and natural but forensically-acquired information (e.g. 82 disasters involving Britons. DNA profiles and fingerprints) may be The ethical and pragmatic reasons for available in other jurisdictions. These will participating in international criminal justice usually be obtained through cooperation cooperation can be seen in the development between national police forces, directly of UK law and policy on extradition from the assisted in a minority of cases by either 19th century onwards. In contrast to many Europol or Interpol, but invariably using secure other jurisdictions, British citizens were not communication channels provided by those allowed to hide behind its borders to evade organisations. justice for crimes committed abroad. The rationale for this approach was restated in 2 Transnational crime: an offence where the the Scott Baker Review of Extradition3: judicially-relevant locations (e.g. crime scenes) “Extradition operates on the basis of are in more than one country. International mutual benefit and obligations. Given the cooperation in such cases is likely to also ease of movement of people throughout involve judicial officials (e.g. prosecutors, the world, the United Kingdom needs the investigating magistrates and extradition help of the international community to fight judges) and in some cases this may be serious crime within its borders, just as much facilitated through Europol and Eurojust. as other states need the assistance of the There will be similar judicial involvement United Kingdom to deal with crime affecting (e.g. coroners, in England and Wales) in the their interests.” identification and repatriation of the dead Such cooperation is not simply a matter following a natural disaster. of mutual advantage. The deontological and retributive (legal, moral and social) 3 International crime: an offence that may significance of the criminal law gives rise to have been committed in one country, from an obligation to assist in the investigation of which the forensic science evidence must be crimes committed by British citizens abroad, obtained, but which can only be prosecuted and in efforts to bring them to account. elsewhere (e.g. crimes by a state against As such, forensic science is an increasingly its own citizens, which are triable at the international exercise. International Criminal Court (ICC)). THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

With the increase in international criminal justice UK FORENSIC SCIENCE MAKES cooperation, it has become more important to standardise how information is collected, IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTIONS TO analysed, stored and exchanged. Greater cost- INTERNATIONAL RESILIENCE. effectiveness and enhanced legal clarity are also essential when information and evidence crosses borders. For example, highly-standardised information that is already held on police forensic been forged or tampered with) assisted the biometric databases (such as fingerprints and Swedish government with the design of new DNA profiles) can be exchanged quickly and at passports and national identity cards. Their comparatively little additional cost. detailed knowledge of how criminals have Even when an alleged offence has no created counterfeit documents, or altered connection with the UK’s jurisdiction, UK genuine documents, was used to create a new forensic scientists and clinicians may still be set of identity documents with greatly enhanced commissioned to analyse evidence or review security features. This not only contributes to the work of other scientists. This might be due Sweden’s security – it enhances global security, to the reputational standing of UK experts, or it especially relating to international travel. may reflect global shortages in disciplines such The nature of the legal framework for as forensic pathology4. Indeed, no country will cooperation is a key factor in determining necessarily have sufficient expertise to deal with its cost. The EU legal instruments for the consequences of major natural disasters or international cooperation between member terrorist incidents on the scale of 9/11 without states (and Schengen Area countries such as international assistance. Iceland, Norway and Switzerland) are, in the UK forensic science makes important view of experienced lawyers working in this 83 contributions to international resilience. This field, “infinitely more efficient” than bilateral was demonstrated, for example, during the arrangements. The latter are “cumbersome, last stage of the Flight MH17 disaster victim subject to local variation, and often inconsistent; identification (DVI) work (see case study all of which inevitably causes delay and p90). Scientists from LGC Forensics were confusion”6. The Lyon-Roma Group within the called in, alongside colleagues from Bode G7 may sometimes provide a suitable forum for Cellmark Forensics (USA) and the International creating alternative modes of cooperation using Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP), to help Interpol secure communication channels with the Netherlands Forensics Institute to accelerate Canada, Japan and the USA7. The most valuable the final DNA analyses of the victims’ remains5. G7 contribution to international forensic science This activity also illustrates how international capability, however, was its decision in 1996 to requirements have taken the forensic use of create the ICMP to identify missing persons DNA beyond its origins in civil or administrative from the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia. This paternity disputes and the investigation of decision funded the creation of the specialist traditional crimes. The 50,000 bone samples DNA expertise needed to develop highly and 30,000 unidentified human remains tested reliable DNA analysis techniques and skills for to date by, respectively, the ICMP and Bode DVI purposes, particularly from bone8. Cellmark Forensics indicates the scale of activity. The US Government has made a crucial This exceeds the amount of DNA analysis ever unilateral contribution to international performed in several EU countries for criminal cooperation, through the free provision of the justice purposes. Federal Bureau of Investigation’s CODIS software. Forensic science expertise need not be CODIS (Combined DNA Index System) is used confined to a reactive role. Knowledge and skills in over 50 countries to identify matches among acquired in responding to past crimes can be DNA profiles, including during the international utilised to prevent crime or make communities exchange of DNA data9. more secure. For instance, Swedish document Over the past two decades, major scientific examiners (who are experts in identifying and and technological advances such as ten-print giving evidence about documents that have fingerprint scanning, automated DNA and THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

THE INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE OF DNA DATA AND FINGERPRINTS CAN ADDITIONALLY IDENTIFY TRENDS AND SPATIAL FEATURES IN CROSS-BORDER CRIME AND OFFENDING.

fingerprint comparisons, and mobile access by the citizens of other EU countries is chiefly to databases have made the initial stages of relatively low-level acquisitive crime, particularly international criminal justice cooperation theft from shops. Overall, they account for significantly faster and more efficient. But costs some 1% of prosecuted offences in the UK will rise and delays are bound to occur – as they (significantly lower than the proportion of such do in national investigations – when forensic- residents in the UK population) and appears to science-derived information is assimilated and be concentrated geographically in the south- appraised with other information in a case; east, eastern counties and Cumbria, rather than and when there is formal procuratorial or dispersed nationally14. judicial international cooperation, particularly Knowledge of these outcomes and trends if extradition is required. It is not surprising, help to frame our general understanding of the therefore, that international cooperation is criminological impact of globalisation. They do predominantly focused on “preventing and not, however, indicate the scale of the challenge combating organised crime, terrorism and other to the Criminal Justice System created by a forms of serious crime”10. This is also reflected in significant number of extra offences, some of the operation of the EU (‘Prüm’) arrangements which will be serious, and potential suspects. Bail 84 for the systematic exchange of forensic and sentencing decisions – in addition to the biometric data11. conduct of investigations – require information about criminal careers and real-world identity THE SCALE AND NATURE OF that can only be obtained through cooperation TRASNATIONAL OFFENDING AND with other jurisdictions. London exemplifies the CRIMES increasing internationalisation of British policing. Although the internationalisation of crime may Foreign-born people (not just from the EU) increasingly affect UK society, overall crime comprised 37% of the population of central rates in this country continue to fall. The London and 33% of the outer boroughs in 2013 most reliable data source, the Crime Survey (ref. 15), with foreign citizens accounting for for England and Wales, last year contained the 25-30% of arrests16 and an estimated 25% of lowest estimate since it began in 1981 (ref. 12). high-harm offenders (including organised crime Increased movement and migration does group members and predatory sex offenders)17. not appear to have had a major impact on In many investigations, sharing forensic biometric criminal demographics, and the number of data will be either the only or the most efficient first-time entrants dealt with by English and means of obtaining indispensable information. Welsh criminal justice agencies has halved since Experience in the Netherlands demonstrates 2007. Where data does exist, crime by EU how the exchange of DNA data has provided offenders in member states other than their potential investigative leads and unlocked access own may be much lower than the proportion to criminal back histories (see Table 1). of such people within the resident population A match between anonymous profiles (approximately 4% of total crime in the Czech recovered from crime scenes in one or Republic; 3% in Italy, Germany and Denmark; more countries may have considerable value 2.5% in the Netherlands; 1.5% in Slovakia; and if analysts can link such information with less than 1% in Austria and Poland)13, 14. other crimes. This may eventually lead to the There are no comparable national statistics identification of a possible suspect. for England and Wales, but the most recent The international exchange of DNA data analysis of available data reveals a picture and fingerprints can additionally identify trends consistent with the pattern elsewhere: offending and spatial features in cross-border crime and THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Table 1: Transnational crime and DNA identifications in the Netherlands (at February 2015)18

OTHER MEMBER STATE NUMBER OF MATCHES DUTCH DATABASE DATABASES REPORTED TO DUTCH (PROFILE TYPE MATCHED) (PROFILE TYPE MATCHED) PROSECUTORS AND POLICE Anonymous profile The profile of a (trace) recovered 3,100 known person from a crime scene Anonymous profile Anonymous profile (trace) recovered (trace) recovered 2,326 from a crime scene from a crime scene Anonymous profile The profile of a (trace) recovered 836 known person from a crime scene The profile of a The profile of a 971 known person known person offending. Used in this way, forensic science go further when committing crimes than offenders data analysis can also be used to inform crime who have arrived in Belgium from the north. These prevention strategies at a sub-regional level. For considerations are unlikely, however, to explain the example, the initial exchanges of DNA data concentration of international offending in two between Belgium, France and the Netherlands regions (Antwerp and Limburg). There, different have shown that although all Belgian judicial levels and forms of economic activity may operate 85 districts have cases with an international as pull factors. If so, such considerations may need dimension, some general trends can be to be covered in the international aspects of crime discerned (see Figure 1). For instance, matches prevention strategies in those areas. with France seem to have a greater affinity Such analytical techniques will become even for southern districts than matches with the more powerful with the help of technological Netherlands. Nationality cannot be inferred from platforms that integrate different types of forensic the database from which the Belgian matches information. These might make use of knowledge came, but there may be some correlation gained from human biological traces, the chemical between the source of matches and the linguistic identification of illicit drugs and large amounts regions. Generally, criminals travelling north may of digital evidence. Meanwhile, the exchange of

Figure 1: These maps of Belgium show the number and distribution of criminal cases associated with matches (sometimes multiple matches in a single case) between DNA profiles held on the Dutch (left) and French (right) databases with DNA profiles on the Belgian database19. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCIENTIFIC have confidence in matches between national databases using different multiplexes. AND LEGAL CULTURES CAN BE A This convergence has also offered greater STUMBLING BLOCK FOR THE EFFICIENT discriminating power as national databases grew larger, and increased the sensitivity of DNA USE OF FORENSIC EVIDENCE, AND THIS analyses. These developments have enhanced WILL VARY BETWEEN JURISDICTIONS. the value of forensic science for justice, but the increased sensitivity has also intensified the challenges of forensic science. For example, scientists now need to use enhanced anti- ten-prints can rapidly identify serial offenders contamination measures, and their reports engaged in cross-border crime who have been need to be carefully scrutinised, because greater arrested elsewhere. sensitivity could increase the identification of DNA traces that have been indirectly transferred IMPROVING THE INTERNATIONAL to the crime scene from persons unconnected USE OF SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE with the offence. The difference between scientific and legal The development of DNA multiplexes with cultures can be a stumbling block for the more overlapping loci is an example of how efficient use of forensic evidence, and this will the international exchange of evidence or vary between jurisdictions. UK scientists and information provided by forensic science may informed commentators, including the House bring additional urgency to research. But there of Commons Select Committee on Science and are many other areas where collaboration and Technology, have complained about a generally funding are likely to be concentrated in the 86 low level of scientific knowledge among lawyers continuing quest for global best practice. and judges20. But there is evidence that legal and scientific thinking is converging. The courts, 1 Human cognition explains the risks from particularly the Court of Appeal and the Privy cognitive bias (see Chapter 4). Different Council, are becoming increasingly confident and countries have responded to this issue in better informed in handling complex scientific various ways, ranging from guidance about questions21. cognitive bias issued by the Forensic Science Internationally, though, such convergence Regulator22, to the introduction of ‘contrarian may be less advanced in some countries, and thinking’ (almost a process of peer review) can be hampered by the disparate procedures within Dutch police procedures for the and expectations of both lawyers and investigation of complex and high-impact scientists. In addition, scientists have sometimes crimes23. The effectiveness of different reinforced the barriers to efficient and reliable approaches should be carefully researched communication between jurisdictions by and the results shared internationally in order adopting different standards and analytical to identify global best practice. processes, for example. This happened with DNA multiplexes, designed to assay sets of 2 Technological platforms for integrated genetic markers – known as loci – to ascribe forensic information. In several countries, with a high level of confidence unique identity to work is being undertaken to develop individuals. Earlier tests in countries such as the platforms for the integrated analysis of UK, other EU member states, the US and China forensic information. Such a system might often used different markers in their analyses, make use of knowledge gained from human and moving towards common international biological traces, the chemical identification standards has been time-consuming and of illicit drugs and large amounts of digital expensive. This has now been largely resolved, evidence24. When such platforms become however, and the loci used by these countries fully operational, forensic science institutions increasingly overlap (see Table 2). This will result are likely to become involved in initiating in major time and cost savings by avoiding the and managing individual investigations, and need for confirmatory retesting in order to perhaps even the more general prioritisation THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Table 2: The international convergence of DNA multiplexes YEAR MULTIPLEX NUMBER OF OVERLAP WITH UK OVERLAP OVERLAP MARKERS MULTIPLEX AT THAT TIME WITH USA WITH CHINA MULTIPLEX AT MULTIPLEX AT ENGLAND SCOTLAND THAT TIME THAT TIME AND WALES

1995 UK SGM 7 N/A N/A N/A

USA ORIGINAL 1998 CODIS 13 6 N/A N/A

1999 UK SGM+ 11 N/A 8 N/A

2010 CHINA SINOFILER 15 9 11 N/A

UK (ENGLAND AND 2014 WALES) DNA-17 17 N/A 11 8 10 UK (SCOTLAND) 2015 DNA-24 24 17 N/A 13 14 USA CODIS CORE 2017 LOCI 20 15 20 N/A 14

of non-scientific criminal justice resources. reliability, repeatability and reproducibility of 87 The automatic processing of combinations the conclusions offered by fingerprint experts26. of data in this way will also severely test the Similarly, higher-resolution CCTV images are adaptability and resilience of data protection enabling the standardisation of facial recognition regulations and the ability to adequately information, which is emerging as an equally address ethical issues (see Chapter 9 case important priority for multi-national research: for study p100). In this respect, England and example, in a project involving forensic scientists Wales offers a global template for national from the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland governance, with the appointment of the that is investigating the calculation of likelihood Forensic Biometrics Commissioner and the ratios when using such images27. National DNA Database’s independent Ethics Group, in addition to the Information 4 Human and microbial genetics. It is likely Commissioner or equivalent data supervisors that forensic genetic analyses will continue to who are to be found in all EU and Prüm consume a large proportion of forensic science member states. research and operational budgets, and pose new ethical and probative challenges. The global 3 Individualisation. One of the major forecast for the biometrics market – including challenges faced globally in forensic science commercial and security applications, as well as research includes the development of criminal justice – is an estimated growth from $8.7 statistical models for the assessment of billion in 2013 to nearly $27.5 billion by 2019, fingerprint comparisons, and in translating the but many of the new applications arriving on this results of such research to crime scene and market have been criticised as being based on courtroom. Indeed, some of the strongest “minimal scientific grounding”28. Faced with such criticism in the US National Academy multi-national market pressures, there should be of Sciences’ 2009 report ‘Strengthening more international collaboration in determining Forensic Science in the United States: A research priorities, and a greater sharing of the Path Forward’25 was directed at fingerprint research burden. Significant local or regional analysis. Since then, however, there have been socio-economic factors will, however, continue advances in the measurement of the accuracy, to shape distinctively national scientific priorities. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES WILL The demands on forensic scientists or clinicians also vary between countries BECOME EVEN MORE POWERFUL depending on whether their judicial systems WITH THE HELP OF TECHNOLOGICAL are inquisitorial (a continuing investigation, with the trial as a public verification of its findings) PLATFORMS THAT INTEGRATE or adversarial (in which parties set out two DIFFERENT TYPES OF FORENSIC conflicting sets of arguments). For example, an adversarial system traditionally confers a more INFORMATION. proactive role on such expert witnesses. But criminal law is evolving in such a way that the distinctions between adversarial and inquisitorial systems are less clear cut, and For example, China has more drowning deaths standardised scientific expertise is becoming than anywhere else in the world29, and it is the more portable across international borders. leading cause of accidental death for children Under either system, the accused should know under the age of 14 (ref. 30). China’s scientists, the nature of the forensic evidence to be therefore, have a major incentive for improving brought by the prosecution, receive effective the reliability of techniques for the diagnosis advice about its likely validity and how it of drowning. For deaths associated with water, might be challenged, and be told about any pathologists often face a difficult diagnostic alternative views on what it might signify. In challenge in distinguishing accidents from those recent years, however, these principles have attributable to suspicious causes. One promising been reinforced in the European Union by initiative is the development of in China of new directives to improve defence rights. The UK 88 DNA barcoding techniques for the detection government has, with the exception of the and analysis of microscopic algae found in the Legal Aid Directive, opted into these measures, victim’s body31. Success in this work would be which include the timely disclosure of the case of great value globally, contributing to accident against a suspect and the right of access to prevention as well criminal justice. legal advice34. These changes have come at a time when 5 Standardisation of evidential reporting, professional outlooks in both the scientific and laboratory processes and governance legal communities have undergone remarkable (including data protection). Standardisation progress. This is partly a result of the testing should not only apply to the methods used in of the epistemological foundations of DNA the forensic laboratory; it is equally applicable evidence. This legal scrutiny has transformed to the governance of the institutions in which the notion of transparency in forensic science, the work takes place, and how the use of data achieving a high level of consensus about the is regulated. The Prüm biometric exchange need for “clarity about how the probative value arrangements require that all participating of the evidence is derived from recognised countries only exchange DNA and fingerprint scientific procedures”35. This change in how data that is produced in units accredited scientific evidence is regarded also reflects to EN ISO/IEC 17025 (ref. 32). All Prüm the influence of Case Assessment and participating states must also observe specified Interpretation (CAI) that was pioneered by data protection principles. The international the former Forensic Science Service36, and the exchange of forensic biometric data must be traditional disclosure duties on the prosecution authorised under a national law that provides under English law37. a means for citizens to check the lawfulness The effects of these trends could be seen of the processing of their data, the recording at the most recent European forensic science of data exchanges, and random compliance meeting, the 7th European Academy of checks by national supervisory bodies. These Forensic Science triennial conference, held in data protection arrangements have to be in September 2015. Events at that conference place before the exchange of data (other than included debate about proposals for a pan- for pilot testing) may commence33. European initiative for standardising scientific THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Table 3: The evolution of admissibility rules

Frye (1923)39 (still binding in many Daubert (1993)40 and the US Federal Reliability limb of the common US state jurisdictions) Rules of Evidence law admissibility test, informed by Criminal Procedure Rules and related Criminal Practice Direction in England and Wales (2014)

Has the underlying scientific principle Is the underlying reasoning or Is there a sufficiently reliable scientific gained general acceptance in the methodology scientifically valid and can basis for the evidence to be admitted? relevant scientific community? it properly be applied to the facts?

Can the underlying theory or technique be tested and has it been tested?

Has the underling theory or technique Whether material on which the opinion been subjected to peer review and is based has been reviewed by others publication in refereed journals? (e.g. peer reviewed) and, if so, what the views of those others were

Has the underlying theory or technique If there is a range of expert opinion in attracted widespread support in a relation to the relevant matter, where relevant scientific community or the expert’s opinion lies and whether communities? the expert has properly explained his or her preference 89

Whether the expert’s methods followed established practice and, if not, whether the expert properly explained the reason for divergence Known or potential error rate and the The extent and quality of the data on existence and maintenance of standards which the opinion based and the validity of methods that were used to obtain it

Whether the opinion takes account of matters such as the degree of precision or the margin of uncertainty (where it relies on the results of methods such as tests or measurements). Whether the opinion properly explains how safe or unsafe an inference from findings on which it relies is (if it relies on such an inference)

Whether the information which was available to the expert was complete and whether the expert took all relevant information into account

The extent to which the opinion is based on material which falls outside the expert’s field of expertise THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CASE STUDY

DISASTER VICTIM IDENTIFICATION: MH17

JEN WILLIAMS, National Civil Contingencies and Disaster Victim Identification Coordinator, National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC)

n 17 July 2014, a passenger plane of the victims, and how, where and when they from Malaysian Airlines MH17 was died, meets the Interpol identification standards shot down over eastern Ukraine and provides the additional required information. by a missile. The flight was from Scotland and Northern Ireland have other rules, Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur and there were although the integrity of the investigation is O298 people on board. equally important. The bodies landed in Shakhtarsk Region in a Interpol identification standards require war zone with the area controlled by a militia of scientific identification by one of the primary pro-Russian rebels. Human remains and debris identifiers: odontology, ridgeology (fingerprints were spread over 34 square kilometres. Access and footprints) and DNA. DVI itself involves was restricted and controlled by the rebels, matching ante mortem samples with post 90 and the human remains were collected by local mortem samples to provide a conclusive farmers and miners. Of the 298 people killed in identification. This means working with the this incident, 283 were passengers and 15 were family of the deceased to identify sources for crew members. The nationalities encompassed primary identifiers from the family, home and 10 different countries with the majority being medical sources such as dentists and doctors. from the Netherlands (193). Ten passengers The Dutch lead for the identification were travelling on a British passport; 6 people processes invited colleagues from the Interpol under the age of 21 were British dual nationals DVI Steering Group to assist with the travelling on their other passport. management of the operation. The UK provided The initial proposal was for the victims’ a DVI manager; a team for the mortuary remains to be taken by train to Kharkiv, a that included an odontologist, a CT scanner city controlled by Ukrainian authorities, for and radiography expertise; and a team for the identification process. Following political reconciliation and identification files. Forensic and negotiations it was agreed that the bodies intelligence collection within the UK and 3 other would be flown to the Netherlands for the countries (Netherlands, New Zealand and South identification processes. The first remains arrived Africa) provided the ante mortem samples for in Kharkiv on 22 July, and the first flight to the the British Nationals. Netherlands took place on 23 July. This was The challenge was immense, due to both the unusual, as recovery and identification would collection methods and the disruption to the normally take place in the country where the bodies, some of which were mere fragments. incident occurred. However, the Netherlands Victims were identified by odontology (119), is respected for its disaster victim identification fingerprints (64) and DNA (130), with some (DVI) and is a member of the Interpol DVI having more than one primary identifier. Steering Group. Secondary and supporting evidence was also When UK citizens are killed abroad in sought in each case. There were 730 initial suspicious circumstances and the remains post mortems, which increased to over 5000 returned to England or Wales, a coroner’s after DNA investigations on co-mingled human investigation must be held. Therefore it is remains. To date, 296 of 298 victims have been important that the investigation into the identity identified, and after the process was extended THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

practice in all key subject areas, thus improving the ability of judges and prosecutors to assess the probative value of scientific evidence; and training for forensic scientists, irrespective of procedural differences between their jurisdictions, in evaluative reporting. A principle of English law that has been developing in recent years is that forensic science evidence may not be admitted if it is not sufficiently reliable to be put before a jury. Until recently, however, the English threshold for accepting scientific evidence was low to try to find remains for the final 2 victims it compared with US criminal procedure based was finally closed at the end of August 2015. on the Daubert decision and the Federal In order to improve future international Rules of Evidence. Last year, the Court of DVI investigations, the Interpol DVI Steering Appeal indicated that following changes in the Group has been working to provide Criminal Procedure Rules, “a new and more standardised practices and has recently rigorous approach on the part of advocates reviewed both the Interpol DVI forms and and the courts to the handling of expert guidance to simplify the DVI process. The UK evidence must be adopted”38. The evolution has designed recovery booklets to assist with of admissibility rules in Anglo-American a coordinated recovery process, and these jurisprudence is summarised in Table 3. have now been endorsed by Interpol. The With the 2014 rule changes, the English European Police College (CEPOL) is creating judiciary has attempted to achieve a new 91 a DVI training course, supported by the balance in the admission of scientific evidence. Interpol DVI Steering Group, to standardise This is intended to combine a more rigorous processes across EU member states and or critical approach by advocates and the support international interoperability. courts to such evidence38, with continued access to “the advantages to be gained from new techniques and new advances in science”41. The reforms are being supported INTERPOL IDENTIFICATION by training organised by the Advocacy Training STANDARDS REQUIRE Council (ATC) “to support advocates in making an informed assessment as to the SCIENTIFIC IDENTIFICATION reliability of experts”42. BY ONE OF THE PRIMARY Yet when viewed in the light of international perspectives, two questions arise. First, the IDENTIFIERS: ODONTOLOGY, promising dialogue now seen in this country RIDGEOLOGY between law and science – with senior judges attending a recent Royal Society meeting (see (FINGERPRINTS AND Chapter 1 case study p20) – is personal and FOOTPRINTS) AND DNA. has not been institutionalised. For example, there is no formal link between the Forensic DVI ITSELF INVOLVES Science Regulator and the judicial rule-making MATCHING ANTE MORTEM bodies. A substantial risk of errors remains because of the random nature by which SAMPLES WITH POST probative issues come before the Court of MORTEM SAMPLES TO Appeal, and the absence of any provision for judicially appointed scientific experts. Secondly, PROVIDE A CONCLUSIVE as the authors of the 2009 US National IDENTIFICATION. Academy of Sciences report put it, whether judicial review alone can cure “the infirmities THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CASE STUDY

FORENSIC ANALYSIS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN SYRIA

CERYS REES, Head of Chemical and Biological Analysis and Attribution, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl)

hroughout the summer of casualties showing symptoms consistent 2013, the world watched as with nerve agent poisoning revealed pictures and videos emerged markers characteristic of exposure to sarin. from Syria suggesting that the The analysis – of three separate sample use of chemical weapons should be added to types from the same individual – provided Tthe reports of other atrocities taking place compelling evidence that this could not in that country. Even before these pictures have been a ‘spoofed’ exposure, but could emerged, the chemical and biological analysis only have occurred following an attack with and attribution capability (CBAAC) at Dstl sarin. This proved to be the first laboratory had been analysing physiological samples confirmation that chemical warfare agents from victims and environmental samples had been used in Syria. Our highly specialised from the areas that were reportedly af- analytical work also revealed traces of sarin 92 fected. This analysis aimed to provide the and/or its characteristic breakdown products highest levels of government – in the UK in associated environmental samples such and internationally – with empirical evidence as soil, wood and wire. Further detailed of whether this was indeed the first use of analysis of the environmental samples nerve agents in more than 25 years; and to identified indicators of how the sarin had augment the broader analysis of the situation been produced. When the data from the that was already being provided by Ministry physiological and environmental samples (and of Defence’s (MOD) Defence Intelligence their sourcing) was evaluated in conjunction Assessment Staff. with the rich intelligence picture, the The MOD and the Home Office had resulting all-source assessment provided UK already recognised that the UK needed the government with high confidence information capability to analyse samples for the presence that the chemical weapon sarin had been of chemical and biological agents to the used on numerous occasions. highest possible standards. Consequently, When considered in light of The Review much of Dstl’s analysis was accredited to of Intelligence of Weapons of Mass the international standard ISO 17025:2005, Destruction (Butler review, 2004), which which is the standard applicable to forensic stated that “more weight had been placed on laboratories. In addition, the Dstl maintained intelligence than intelligence could bear”, the a chain of custody for each sample to high-confidence information from laboratory demonstrate that they could not have been analysis of samples to a ‘forensic’ standard tampered with, or altered in any way, while in has now been shown to be highly beneficial the laboratory. (Based on these procedures, for decision makers at the most senior levels the laboratory has since been successfully of government, when combined with other reviewed against International Laboratory sources of information. Accreditation Cooperation G19 – Modules Research within CBAAC is now focussed in a Forensic Science Process and the UK on developing techniques to provide Forensic Science Regulator’s Codes of attribution information such as: the origins Conduct). of precursor chemicals used to make the Our analysis of blood, hair and urine from sarin; when the chemical agent was produced; THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

of the forensic science community”25. It is likely that this central test facing forensic science internationally will only be resolved through FORENSIC ANALYSIS OF systematic and extensive research, and that will require significant and sustained funding. This year, $8.5 million of the US National CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN SYRIA Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) budget will be devoted to forensic science research, and an additional $4 million has been provided to NIST to fund external research in a Centre of Excellence (COE). In the previous year, the US National Institute THE HIGH-CONFIDENCE of Justice disbursed more than $20 million in INFORMATION FROM research grants into forensic science. Based an equivalent proportion of GDP, matching LABORATORY ANALYSIS the US government sponsorship of forensic OF SAMPLES TO A science research would require targeted budgets of about $5.5 million in the UK, within ‘FORENSIC’ STANDARD an aggregate investment of some $34.4 million HAS NOW BEEN SHOWN by the entire European Union43. TO BE HIGHLY BENEFICIAL CONCLUSION FOR DECISION MAKERS The insights of earlier generations of UK AT THE MOST SENIOR scientists in applying fingerprint comparisons 93 and DNA analysis have fundamentally LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT. shaped contemporary conceptions of criminal investigation. Pioneering work on the standardisation of laboratory procedures and biometric databases; the use of such and the identity of specific individuals techniques in tackling high-volume crime; and responsible for both the production and the assessment and interpretation of scientific use of this type of weapon. Although it evidence; have all provided benchmarks that is challenging to acquire this information, have been adopted in other countries or it could have a profound effect on UK incorporated into international standards. foreign policy, and help to deter states The principle issue for decision-makers today and terrorist organisations from pursuing is how to most effectively and efficiently weapons of this nature in the future. ensure that UK scientists and technologists can participate in the globally-collaborative enterprise of shaping the future of forensic science, and benefit from the knowledge, expertise and ideas to be found in the international community. Achieving those goals would contribute to the resilience of both science in general, and criminal justice in particular, in the UK. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CASE STUDY

WILDLIFE CRIME

LUCY WEBSTER, Wildlife Forensic Scientist, Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture (SASA)

he illegal wildlife trade is one of a range of specialist disciplines including non- the most significant transnation- human DNA analysis, veterinary pathology, al organised crimes, generating morphological examination and specialist billions of dollars each year for chemical analysis4, 5. Outside the mainstream those involved1. These crimes impact the of forensic science provision, and yet providing Tpopulations of animals and plants persecuted, evidence for criminal investigations, the including many critically endangered species, as development of standards in these specialist well as the communities where these species fields has been driven from within the wildlife are found. forensic community6, 7, 8. The Society for Wildlife For some endangered species, limited trade Forensic Science (SWFS) was established in is permitted by CITES (the Convention on 2009 to facilitate the development of this International Trade in Endangered Species of field and the standards required8. In addition Wild Fauna and Flora2). Permitted trade is to provision of proficiency testing, the society strictly controlled, and export and import launched a certification scheme in 2012 permits are required from the relevant CITES for individual practitioners. The standards 94 management authorities to move specimens issued by SWFS are overseen by the Forensic internationally. This system for cross-border Science Standards Board in the USA9, although movement has, however, been abused. For they were written to be applicable at an example, legally hunted rhinoceros horn international level. trophies are known to have disappeared after SWFS has members representing more import to the hunter’s home country. than 60 laboratories across 15 countries. This One such case involved a hunter in network of wildlife forensic scientists can help the Czech Republic, who had imported a to answer investigative questions regarding the rhinoceros trophy from South Africa. At an origin of seized specimens, making a substantial inspection visit by the local CITES Enforcement contribution to combat the illegal wildlife trade. Authority, no rhinoceros horn trophy was present. The hunter claimed to have had the horn carved into small cups, but the CITES Enforcement Authority were not convinced by this story. To establish whether the cups were rhinoceros horn in origin or not, a sample of a cup was sent to the Wildlife DNA Forensic unit at SASA3 for DNA analysis. A DNA test to identify the species of origin from the cup sample was applied, identifying the carving as originating from a cow (Bos taurus) contradicting the hunter’s claim. This case has not yet been concluded, but it is likely that this rhinoceros horn has become part of the illegal wildlife trade. The need for specialist wildlife forensic services is clear – without DNA testing, it may have been impossible to refute the hunter’s claim. Wildlife forensic science encompasses 95 THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CHAPTER 9 DESIGNING OUT CRIME

NICK ROSS, Chairman Forensic science has long focused on crimes that have already occurred. UCL Jill Dando Institute But there is untapped opportunity for the insights and methodologies of of Crime Science science to prevent crimes from happening in the first place.

orensic science (FS) has contributed itself more relevant to the judicial system. greatly to the evidence-base of But there may be even greater prospects for it criminal investigations. It has beyond the confines of criminal justice. Since triumphed in exposing miscarriages the inception of modern FS, which began with of justice. It has evolved from a supporting role fingerprinting in the 19th century, it has been Fto become a front-line analytic tool, often enlisted to help win a war that, ideally, would directing the efforts of investigators. The vast have been averted in the first place. Traditionally majority of serious cases, and a significant a criminal investigation follows in the wake of proportion of all Crown Court cases, now victimisation; a key question for forensic science include presentation of one or more types of is the extent to which science could pre-empt forensic evidence, and public confidence in FS is the crime. Indeed, it is a remarkable that FS has so robust that the Lord Chief Justice of England thus far mostly seen its role as downstream of and Wales has wondered aloud about whether offending: finding someone to blame has had such faith is justified1. more importance than finding a solution to Many scientists share those doubts, as Itiel future crime. 96 Dror observes in Chapter 4. The US National Blame plainly has its merits. Catching and Academy of Sciences concluded in 2009 that, convicting wrongdoers can create a triple- “with the exception of DNA analysis, no forensic whammy: providing a much-needed sense of method has been rigorously shown to have the justice, in some cases removing the wrongdoer’s capacity to consistently, and with a high degree freedom to cause more harm, and, ideally, of certainty, demonstrate a connection between deterring future crime. evidence and a specific individual or source.”2 But court dispositions seem to have had There are other legitimate concerns about disappointingly little influence on the ebb and the use of FS in court, not least those of critics flow of offending. In Britain, this pattern was like Dror who warn that FS may help legitimise obscured because of a reliance on data recorded deep-seated weaknesses in court processes. by the police, which capture less than half of These include a reliance on adversarial methods crime revealed by other methods3, 4 (see Figure and on precedent, strict rules which exclude 1) and can be vulnerable to recording error evidence from being aired, and a demand for a and deliberate obfuscation – so much so that in binary outcome. No other questions that relate 2014 the UK Statistics Authority suspended their to public safety are now judged in this way. designation as National Statistics. At least one There is also the matter of cost. The chief constable has described them as “dead in criminal law is facing a financial crisis. Against a the water”5. trend in which many goods and services have Victims surveys such as the Crime Survey experienced price deflation, the expense and for England and Wales (CSEW)3 have become length of court cases has been rising steadily for the preferred method for measuring trends a century. It is far from clear whether, on balance, in all but the rarest of crimes. Mark Bangs, FS makes the Criminal Justice System nimbler senior statistician in the Office for National and more cost-effective (see Chapter 2 case Statistics’ Crime Statistics and Analysis Team, study p29). says: “The CSEW provides a better reflection of the extent of crime than police recorded PRE-EMPTING CRIME figures, as the survey asks about crimes that There are major opportunities for FS to refine are not reported to or recorded by the police. its techniques, be more economical, and make The survey is also unaffected by changes in DESIGNING OUT CRIME

Figure 1: Trends in police-recorded crime for England and Wales, compared with Crime Survey for England and Wales3, 4

20,000

Police recorded crime - old counting rules 18,000 Police recorded crime - new counting rules Number of offences (000s) Police recorded crime - post NCRS 16,000 Police recorded crime - post NCRS year ending June

14,000 CSEW estimate X CSEW estimate years ending June 12,000

10,000

8,000

X 6,000 X

4,000

2,000 97

0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2010/11 1998/99 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2011/12 Yr end Jun 14 Yr end Jun 15

Figure 2: Trends in crime: average of one-year prevalence rates (the number of people who have experienced that crime) for selected property thefts in 15 Western countries7.

6

4 Theft from a car Bicycle theft Burglary Attempted burglary 2 Theft of a car Theft of a motorcycle

0

1988 1991 1995 1999 2003/04 THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

WHEREAS SOMETIMES CRIME IS SIMPLY designing a response. Moreover it is harder (and usually ethically more challenging) to change DISPLACED FROM ONE TARGET people than it is to change the circumstances in TO ANOTHER, MORE FREQUENTLY which they find themselves. The disconnect between courts and crime THERE IS A HALO EFFECT WHEREBY becomes more starkly apparent when checked FEWER PEOPLE ARE RECRUITED against individual crime types. Crime, like illness, is really a collection of many different malaises. TO ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOUR. While individual trajectories can contribute to a common pattern, there can be contrasting undercurrents below the troughs and waves. Yet examination of almost any category of offending police recording practices or levels of public has shown little correlation with what happened reporting to the police, so it provides a more in courts. For example, homicide in Britain consistent measure over time.” Victim surveys swelled alarmingly after the abolition of capital are also less susceptible to classification error or punishment, but it was already rising before that manipulation6 than police records. event, and has fallen dramatically since. Car crime Given this standardised metric there is now rocketed despite little change in penal tariffs overwhelming consensus among statisticians and and has subsequently dropped by about three- senior police that crime surged from the 1960s quarters (see case study p105), again with no to the 1990s and then fell faster than it had risen. dramatic change in court disposals. The same This pattern was broadly common across the is true of burglary and most other traditional industrialised world and the trend was similar in physical and contact crimes. 98 countries with punitive or liberal penal policies The steep falls in offending, and particularly (see Figure 2)7. blue-collar crime, show that we can reduce In other words, catching people is a necessary crime through better preventative measures, response to crime but the Criminal Justice and can do so on a dramatic scale. High- System has rarely been proven to dictate, or quality research has also shown that whereas even largely influence, rates of victimisation. This sometimes crime is simply displaced from one is not to say that there is no role for deterrence target to another, more frequently there is a halo and incarceration, but that their impact is not effect whereby fewer people are recruited to always conspicuous. Accordingly, it might be antisocial behaviour8. (Typically the pattern seems useful for scientists to apply themselves to the to be that growth in opportunities for acquisitive factors that are at least closely correlated with crime leads eventually to a rise in violent crime, the rise and fall of crime. but that removing temptations for physical theft We do not have to look far. It has long been causes fewer people to graduate into more known that protective measures can enhance serious crime.) security. This is why early people dwelt in caves and later built castles and city walls. It is why we DESIGNING OUT CRIME have locks and PIN numbers for our credit cards. Designing out crime is in many ways little There is truth in the old saw that opportunity different from designing out accidents. Cars makes the thief. provide an obvious example: for many decades Of course there is more to crime than manufacturers blamed motorists for road opportunity alone. There has to be a person casualties, thereby absolving themselves of the or population predisposed to cutting corners need to engineer solutions, until campaigners or being downright antisocial, and there needs like Ralph Nader turned the tide of public to be temptation (which lawyers call a motive). opinion. Similarly the industry denied its own That gives us several angles for potential responsibility for car theft until vehicle crime intervention. But to assume that crime is simply became so ubiquitous that the government caused by criminals is rather like saying illness is called business leaders to account and published caused by patients, or that driving is caused by ‘lists of shame’ identifying models most likely motorists. It is tautological rather than useful in to be stolen. It might just be coincidence but DESIGNING OUT CRIME

recorded offences halved within eight years and whom bullying has always been a problem (see have continued to plummet. case study p102). The link between opportunity There are dozens of similar stories where and violence is less clear-cut than in acquisitive thoughtless innovation led to surges in crime and crime, but correlations like those between where sensible interventions led to precipitous knife-carrying and wounding in Scotland suggests drops. Within a few years of the replacement of that opportunity makes the killer as well as the shop counters in favour of self-service checkouts thief. There are also many theories about the there was, perhaps inevitably, a surge in falling rates of violent crime – from abortion shoplifting9, one in which prominent middle-class leading to fewer unwanted male children, to people were caught up along with those whom declining alcohol and drug use, or even a drop conventional criminology might have predicted in atmospheric lead concentrations – all showing to be criminals. When prosecutions failed to some degree of persuasive correlation, though stem the losses, retailers began to introduce an none consistently. The simplest reason – the array of surrogate shop counters in the form Occam’s Razor answer – might be that physical of RF readers, dummy display packaging, CCTV theft acts as a recruiting sergeant to more and security guards. Similarly, as consumerism serious offending, so that as stealing declines took off and ordinary homes became filled so, eventually, will assault. There are probably with tempting products such as TVs and video many factors working in tandem, some much recorders, domestic burglary surged until in more important than others. On the other hand 1989 the Association of Chief Police Officers, there are unequivocal connections between endorsed by the Home Office and the circumstance and many types of offending. insurance industry, introduced new standards for Among these are internet-enabled crimes, such new and refurbished properties called Secured as spamming, scamming, identity theft, child By Design. As deadlocks, double-glazing, and sexual exploitation and fraud; ill-conceived 99 intruder alarms became widespread, the rate of expense-claim systems like those that ensnared burglaries fell emphatically and consistently for so many otherwise honourable MPs; or the quarter of a century. multi-billion pound tricks and swindles within Violent crime too has been curbed by poorly supervised financial service industries. prudent interventions intended to make Just as we have learned to curb blue-collar circumstances default to safety rather than offences, we have thrown open vulnerabilities provocation. Segregating rival football fans and to white-collar ones, tempting largely different penalising clubs for misbehaviour restored populations to offend and demonstrating clearly respect for British soccer after years of global that the middle-classes are no more immune to infamy. Redesigning spaces so that drinkers are temptation and opportunity than are the poor – jostled less, provided with food, or supplied with or for that matter the exceedingly rich. harmless glassware has had a marked effect on casualties where alcohol is implicated. Sometimes THE OPPORTUNITIES OF SCIENCE circumstantial change has on its own fuelled There is ample opportunity here for the insights or quelled crime waves. The rising popularity and methodologies of science to save us from of mobile phones and portable electronic future harm. Science uses observable, testable gadgets propelled a swell of street robberies and repeatable measurements and experiments until their security measures made mugging to understand how things commonly behave. increasingly redundant – mobile phone theft is It is a systematic process of evaluating theories now concentrated mostly between children for through meticulous control of contaminating

IT HAS LONG BEEN KNOWN THAT PROTECTIVE MEASURES CAN ENHANCE SECURITY. THIS IS WHY EARLY PEOPLE DWELT IN CAVES AND LATER BUILT CASTLES AND CITY WALLS. IT IS WHY WE HAVE LOCKS AND PIN NUMBERS FOR OUR CREDIT CARDS. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CASE STUDY

ETHICS IN FORENSIC SCIENCE

CHRIS HUGHES, Chair of the National DNA Database Ethics Group

he application of science to the sufficiently understood and testable for a fair prevention and detection of trial, without unduly compromising the public crime faces a range of ethical interest in other ways. issues that set it apart from most A third ethical dimension is of particular other fields of human endeavour. Those arise significance for genomic and cognate Tfrom the subject matter of the discipline, the investigations. In a forensic investigation, the purposes for which it is carried out and the key driver is to establish the identity of a ethical relations of the various parties. person in order to determine whether they Efforts to prevent crime include the use have committed a criminal offence. They are of psychological and behavioural economic likely to feel that this amounts to an intrusion models. These may be applied to ‘design out’ into their privacy without consent. This stands crime, through techniques such as presenting in sharp contrast to most other biomedical visual cues to encourage social interaction; or sciences, where investigations aim to treat to adjust market behaviour, by restricting sales an individual’s medical condition, or require of some goods or promoting the sales of less informed consent from a research subject, 100 harmful competitors; or to ‘nudge’ pro-social or involve minimal interference through the behaviour. But these approaches highlight a review of medical records. The countervailing conflict between the proponents of a minimal ethical arguments, of course, relate to the state, and those who consider that society victims of crime whose rights have been should act collectively to prevent suffering and infringed, the duty of society at large to promote happiness. uphold the criminal law by identifying the The forensic scientist has an overarching duty perpetrator, and the duty of society to protect to tell the truth. But they also have a duty to its members from being harmed by undetected communicate that to judges, juries and lawyers perpetrators. in a way that they can understand and evaluate The fourth substantive dimension lies fairly: otherwise, both the accused and the in the large-scale collection and storage of victim are denied a fair trial. In forensic science, information about individuals. The non- however, significant aspects of its techniques are consensual collection of fingerprints, samples either part of the closely-guarded intellectual for DNA profiling and custody photographs capital of commercial entities, or seen as amounts to an intrusion into the individual’s sensitive information whose disclosure could privacy. The retention of CCTV footage and assist criminals or undermine national security. data relating to telephone and internet traffic The challenge for the scientist and the judge creates a similar possibility of intrusion. is to ensure that the underlying process is Those setting the boundaries for what is

WITHOUT PUBLIC DEBATE AND SCRUTINY OF INNOVATIONS, THE ACCEPTABILITY OF FORENSIC PRACTICE MAY BE UNDERMINED. THIS WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE TO THE LEGITIMACY OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROCESS, ALONG WITH COHESION AND TRUST IN SOCIETY. DESIGNING OUT CRIME

factors such as bias and chance. It is open to peer review and public scrutiny and, if true to itself, regards facts as provisional and subject to revision in the face of further evidence. Science has proved uniquely successful in changing our future for the better (and arguably sometimes for the worse). Its findings have transformed our understanding of ourselves and its discoveries acceptable forensic practice in these areas have been more spectacular than anything must properly evaluate the harms and imagined by fiction writers or by poets. benefits that flow from the act of obtaining FS embraces every scientific field from and using the information – to the individual archaeology to zoology. At its best it is whose data is gathered, and to other multidisciplinary, embracing biology, chemistry, individuals who are affected. This must be epidemiology, physics, psychology or any other balanced against the consequences of not specialty that can help to solve a problem. acting: both the act and the omission have Science has already been drafted in to tackle moral consequences. politically-motivated crime – scientists are Many factors circumscribe acceptable involved in anti-terrorism considerations, for forensic practice, including the impact example – and it can bring the same skills to on a fair trial, the interference with an help private or public sector enterprises to individual’s privacy and family life, and foresee danger and design products, policies or whether the information was obtained in a services that default to safe. Forensic scientists – lawful manner. When considering the latest those with a ready-honed interest in crime – are scientific and technological innovations well placed to colonise this field. 101 of forensic science, however, the norms The enrolment of students in FS has grown of what society sees as acceptable are strongly in recent years (see Chapter 2 case uncertain and fluid. The duty of forensic study p30), to the extent that there have been science in such cases is, above all, to warnings about falling standards, with some communicate and explain what is proposed courses even described as “softer sciences”10. and its consequences. Although individuals Many graduates, even the best of them, may find will ascribe different meanings and values to it hard to get employment in their chosen field. such actions, providing a clear explanation is There is therefore a push factor, as well as an the first step towards engaging with society opportunity, for FS to look beyond the realms of – a process that ultimately determines the catching offenders or of prosecuting or defending desirability or otherwise of developments in people in the courts. forensic science. In doing so, forensic scientists will need International legal instruments (of the to hone their ethical skills and perhaps learn UN, and Council of Europe) set norms from the model of medicine, which has for the protection of human rights, but developed strict protocols for research and they also recognise “the importance of even for resource allocation. Security should promoting public debate on the questions be emancipating but if it is done badly it can posed by the application of biology and become intrusive and limit our freedoms and medicine”, as well as the state’s duty quality of life (see case study p100). Moreover, to provide public information. Without the very concept of crime can be surprisingly public debate and scrutiny of innovations elusive, and laws can be capricious or unfair in forensic science – through the media, as well as subject to revision. What we should ethics committees, professional bodies and seek is to cut the agony that people suffer legislatures – the acceptability of forensic unnecessarily. That task, apart from knowledge practice may be undermined. This would for its own sake, is surely one of the greatest pose a significant challenge to the legitimacy goals of science, and in particular one of the of the criminal justice process, along with greatest opportunities for forensic science. cohesion and trust in society. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

CASE STUDY

MOBILE PHONE CRIME

NICK ROSS, Chairman, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science

obile phones exemplify how the displaced elsewhere. Of particular importance ebb and flow of crime is heavily to the phone companies was that there was dictated by temptation and no displacement to subscription fraud, where opportunity. Their emergence accounts are opened in false names. Their in the 1980s, and the take-up of second- overall losses to fraud tumbled by 80% within Mgeneration technology in the 1990s, spawned an five years. entirely new category of crime – and went on to Meanwhile, phone handsets themselves revitalise an old one. created a parallel crime wave. As they became The new challenge was air-time fraud (i.e. smaller and more ubiquitous, they came making calls without paying). The old one was to embody all six of the classic criteria for footpad robbery, which had come to be called theft, which crime scientists call CRAVED mugging. Had forensic science existed with a (Concealable, easily Removable, widely Available, remit to prevent crime as well as to detect Valuable, fashionably Enjoyable and Disposable)2. it, more thought would have been given to In 1993, the government’s crime prevention designing out the vulnerabilities and provocations committee warned preventative action was 102 of mobile phones, rather than retrofitting them. needed. Nothing was done. This failure to think ahead cost billions of pounds, By 2001, the Metropolitan Police Service resulted in significant harm to individuals and estimated that around 40,000 mobile phones dented public tranquillity. were reported stolen in London each year, As so often happens in product innovation, accounting for more than half of all street attacks. manufacturers took care to ensure that the In 2003, the problem had become so worrying new devices were electrically safe, non-toxic that the government summoned industry and robust, but the potential to incite crime was leaders to an emergency summit. As a direct not considered important. As a result, people result, safeguards were introduced to ensure quickly found ways to mimic the identity of individual handsets could be tracked when they other people’s phones and thereby steal their made contact with the network. Thereafter, airtime. In the early 1990s this parasitic fraud phone theft in England and Wales began to fall grew exponentially, especially in the US where and continued to do so until around 2010, when handheld scanners became a craze and cell a new generations of smart phones unleashed phone numbers could easily be cloned. new temptations, especially among the young3. At first the telecom companies sought to pass (In 2012, two–thirds of handset theft victims on the costs to subscribers whose handsets had reported to the Metropolitan Police were been compromised. Only when they themselves between thirteen and sixteen years old.) became obliged to write down the losses did The actual volume of handset theft has they introduce defences such as encrypting cell been hard to quantify because police figures phone serial numbers. The result was a drop in only count cases reported to them. Thus crime even steeper than had been the rise (see they inevitably undercount crime and are Figure 1). influenced by many factors, including insurance Significantly, the demise of air-time fraud did penetration. The most reliable measure, the not appear to cause a switch to other crimes. one most respected by the Office for National This is important because classical theories in Statistics, came from a sweep by the Crime criminology attribute crime to social disaffection Survey for England and Wales in 2013/14 (ref. known as anomie, with the fatalistic implication 4). Even this must be treated with caution, that a crime prevented is a merely a crime because an innocently mislaid phone may DESIGNING OUT CRIME

Figure 1: US air-time fraud in the 1990s (ref. 1).

$500m

$450m Tumbling & Cloning Losses $400m Subscription Frauds

$350m

$300m

$250m

$200m

$150m

$100m 103

$50m Jun ‘95 Jun ‘93 Jun ‘92 Jun ‘94 Jun ‘96 Jun ‘98 Jun ‘99 Jun ‘97 Dec ‘92 Dec ‘93 Dec ‘94 Dec ‘95 Dec ‘96 Dec ‘97 Dec ‘98 Dec ‘99 easily be assumed to have been stolen. But manufacturer, and so bring pressure on suppliers it provides the best estimate we have, and to make their products, and thus their customers, suggests a very steep decrease in victimisation more crime-resistant. over the preceding decade5. It seems likely this The study involved more than 100,000 decline owed much to the fact that trackable mobile phone thefts reported in London phones have little black market value. A causal between August 2012 and January 20147. As relationship is hard to prove but there are many with previous research it found evidence to precedents, including sustained and precipitous suggest that phone theft is disproportionately falls in vehicle crime after security features targeted at the young. It also revealed that were improved (see case study p105). There is women were victimised more than men. More also evidence from phone thieves themselves importantly for crime prevention, BIT was able who, after all, make essentially rational targeting to build on others’ work8 to produce the first decisions6. Even so, with an estimated 784,000 official Mobile Phone Theft Ratio. The outcome victims a year in England and Wales in 2013-4, was striking. Crime surveys had already shown handset theft is still a significant challenge for that more iPhones were reported stolen society4. than other handsets, but by comparing thefts Consequently, the Behavioural Insights Team against volumes of suspected, untargeted (BIT) worked with the Home Office and the thefts, the researchers showed that this was Metropolitan Police Service to see if some not merely a reflection of how many were in handsets provoked more crime than others. circulation. In fact, Apple products were targeted If so, they could rank phones by type and disproportionately (see Figure 2). THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

Figure 2: The Mobile Phone Theft Ratio: The top 20 most likely phones to be targeted by thieves between August 2012 and January 2014 (ref. 7). This ratio is derived by dividing the share of thefts of a given model that were plausibly targeted (e.g. a phone that has been snatched) by the share of thefts of a given model that was unlikely to have been targeted (e.g. a phone stolen as part of a burglary).

iPhone 6 Plus iPhone 6 HTC M8 Samsung Galaxy Note 3 BB 9320 LG Nexus 5 iPhone 5s Samsung Galaxy Note iPhone 5c iPhone 5 Samsung Galaxy 3 Samsung Galaxy Note 2 HTC One Blackberry Z10 Samsung Galaxy Mini Samsung Galaxy S3 Samsung Galaxy Alpha iPhone 4s iPhone 3Gs Blackberry 9900 104 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

This ratio is derived by dividing the share proposes to update the Theft Ratio and provide of thefts of a given model that were plausibly comparison websites to inform consumers, targeted (e.g. a phone that has been snatched) encourage industry innovation and promote by the share of thefts of a given model that was wider use of existing security features.) unlikely to have been targeted (e.g. a phone The research adds weight to the already stolen as part of a burglary). impressive volume of evidence that crime is not This may reflect that iPhones were expensive, determined by personality or social factors alone which made it tempting to report thefts in but, perhaps more importantly, by the ease and order to make insurance claims. Moreover, Apple attractiveness of committing an offence. Since might protest that its products were especially a proportion of phone theft involves physical fashionable in this period and so more desirable assault, there is evidence that violent crime as to thieves. But the analysis also suggested that well as acquisitive crime can be curbed with suppliers can control crime rates to a great increasing effectiveness. extent. In September 2013, Apple introduced a Consumers need to be informed about the new operating system called iOS7 with a ‘Find relative risks they face, and government and My Phone’ function that could remotely lock other agencies should recognise they have a the handset. When the feature was announced, role in targeting appropriate and proportionate reported thefts of Apple phones subsequently pressure on those whose products unwittingly peaked and then declined markedly, unlike those create crime pollution. from other manufacturers. Cutting victimisation requires forensic science Analysis showed that this decline was unique techniques to be applied at the design stage, not to Apple, and theft rates for other phones after poorly thought-through products, services did not drop at the same time. In the months or policies have already been subject to misuse. that followed, as more security features were embedded in more devices, recorded mobile phone crime as a whole continued to fall9. (BIT DESIGNING OUT CRIME

CASE STUDY

TRENDS IN VEHICLE CRIME

MIKE BRIGGS, Crime Research Manager at Thatcham Research

he impact of vehicle crime goes reduction in vehicle theft (see Figure 1). The UK far beyond car theft – it enables branch of the International Association of Auto many other crimes, from joy Theft Investigators (IAATI UK) now acts as an riding and fraud to terrorism. important forum for those involved in tackling Twenty years ago, the rate of vehicle crime was vehicle crime to share information and best Thigh and getting worse, so the UK government practice. persuaded the motor insurance industry to set However, vehicle crime rates may now be at security standards that would counteract this a turning point. When manufacturers bring in trend. Efforts to tackle criminals in this area, by new technology, so too do organised criminal undermining their systems and knowledge, are gangs (OCGs). As soon as we find ways to raise still being led by the United Kingdom. security standards, OCGs find new weaknesses Those security standards included fitting in those systems. Over the past 4 years, we have vehicles with an immobiliser and insurance- seen a rise in OCGs attacking vehicles and, in certificated alarm. But manufacturers could also some cases, removing them more effectively than take components off the vehicle – reducing the owners could themselves. Indeed, vehicle the number of door locks, for example – in recovery rates are now at their lowest since 105 order to defend those components at less records begin (see Figure 2), and the costs of the cost. These changes, based on standards set crimes are rising because younger vehicles are by Thatcham, started the trend for a dramatic being stolen.

Figure 1: UK domestic vehicle theft has fallen dramatically over the past two decades.

1,200 Theft from vehicle Counting Rule changes Theft of vehicle 1,000 Alarm NVSA 3 NVSA 4 Interfering with a NCRS motor vehicle 800 NVSA 4a

600

NVSA 5 400

Number of offences (000s) Number of offences Immobilisation NVSA

200

0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2010/11 2012/13 1998/99 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14

1. New Counting Rules for recorded crime were introduced in 1998/99 and the NCRS was introduced in April 2002. 2. Interfering with a motor vehicle became a notifiable offence in 1998/99. THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME

That means my team and I must set security Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are standards that anticipate a thief’s next move. designing new ways to combat criminal gangs. But generally it is the aftermarket industry that We focus on three key areas: fills the gap, as they once did with immobilisers 1 Body security and alarms. Today we see the same happening • Protecting on-board diagnostic (OBD) with vehicle tracking systems. systems Tracking and navigation systems allow us to • Additional locks, including wheel security recover evidence, and we also gain vital data • Catalyst converter protection from keys and vehicle control units. But the falling costs of technologies such as fully-keyless 2 Electronic security door unlock and keyless engine start means that • Alarm Systems criminals can also exploit them to steal vehicles, • Immobiliser Systems and we are in danger of seeing a fresh surge in • Tracking systems joy riding. Beyond that, cybercrime is the next big threat 3. Vehicle identification to tackle. Criminals have been interfering with • Parts marking, with details recorded in a vehicle software since the late 1990s, but they database available 24/7 are now able to carry out these attacks much • Glass etching, with details recorded in a more rapidly: the times required to code a key database available 24/7 or start the engine have fallen from over 30 • General vehicle identification, through minutes to 6 seconds. 106 security schemes such as CESAR or Further information can be found at MASTER www.thatcham.org

Figure 2: UK domestic vehicle recovery has declined substantially over the past two decades.

3,500 70%

3,000 60%

2,500 50%

2,000 40%

1,500 30%

Number of offences (000s) Number of offences 1,000 20%

500 10%

0 0% VM137 VM065 VM100 VM021 VM140 VM044 VM141 VM035 VM035 VM006 VM015 VM085 VM036 VM147 VM071

STOLEN RECOVERED YES % RECOVERED SECTION 3: FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

To day, economic adulteration and counterfeiting of global food and consumer WHO’s international Medical Products products is expected Anti-Counterfeiting Taskforce (IMPACT) to cost industry estimate that up to $10 - $15 25% of the total billion medicine supply per year in less-developed countries is counterfeit

Microtags are micrometre-sized particles uniquely encoded with multiple layers of security information within the space of 50-110 micrometres (the size of a speck of dust)

Olive Oil Honey

Milk 10 Fish food products that Grain are most at risk Spices of food fraud

Coffee Tea

Organic Fruit juices food Currently 713 GPHF-Minilab units are used globally across 92 countries to fight the counterfeit drug trade.

In 2009 the OECD reported that the trade in fake goods was as high as $250 billion Larger than the national GDPs of approx. 150 economies

In 2014, over 35 million fakes were detained at EU borders. Of these, 25% were potentially dangerous to the health and safety of consumers

Around half of some air pollutants in the UK come from other parts of Europe FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CHAPTER 10

AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE

DEREK CRASTON, New forensic approaches in detection and identification offer potential solutions to Government Chemist, fraud or product quality issues in many areas of public protection. But they would LGC benefit from the wider availability of high-quality reference databases, greater use of anti-counterfeit measures, and more collaboration between policymakers, industry and the measurement community.

onsumers seek a range of desirable can a retailer be sure of the products it provides? attributes when purchasing goods, Such assurance depends on an understanding and but some qualities are self- monitoring of risks; and related to this, managing evidently common across many and auditing product, ingredient and component product types: safety, provenance, utility and supply chains, as well as production processes. Cvalue for money. The seller is responsible for The aim should be to establish trust in the supply being honest about what is claimed for their chain, earned by demonstrated (and audited) goods – either directly or by implication – and competence and integrity; but also backed up by society expects regulation of legal or quality systems able to secure the supply chain against standards in associated markets. Subversion of criminal infiltration. Risk assessment is also a such standards, ranging from cutting corners to critical component of regulatory enforcement outright criminality is, unfortunately, increasingly strategies. Allied to both enforcement and supply- common. Indeed, according to reports1,2, the chain management is the need for detection tools 110 annual international global trade in counterfeit that can be deployed in specialised laboratories or goods alone is measured in the hundreds of in the field to test for conformity. billions of pounds. Consumers and businesses place a premium THE DETECTION CHALLENGE on the authenticity and integrity of goods and Detection involves compositional analysis, to test services. The converse – involving fraud or poor whether a product contains what is claimed. This quality standards – jeopardises honest businesses, can uncover the potential substitution, extension consumer trust and health. Examples include or adulteration of the product with similar but the horse meat episode3, the dangers associated cheaper ingredients; the presence of undeclared with trade in counterfeit pharmaceuticals4, the ingredients or components that may be added economic impact of counterfeit electronics, the to reduce production costs or increase the sale well recorded morbidity and mortality caused by price; the over-declaration of key or quantitative counterfeit alcoholic drinks5,6, and risks to people ingredients; and compliance issues such as non- with food allergies due to inadvertent exposure declaration or false declaration of processes. to allergens7. The extent and impact of these at Investigators also need tools that can verify claims a sector level is described in Chapters 11, 12 and about the origins of product ingredients, and 13. the location of production: in other words, who Consumers rely on retailers and regulators to made it and what did they make it from? assure the quality and authenticity of goods, and For example, whether a wine or whiskey is of it is unlikely that emerging technology will change the age and from the location indicated on the this dependence in the immediate future. So how bottle; or whether clothes or cosmetics were

CONSUMERS AND BUSINESSES PLACE A PREMIUM ON THE AUTHENTICITY AND INTEGRITY OF GOODS AND SERVICES. THE CONVERSE – INVOLVING FRAUD OR POOR QUALITY STANDARDS – JEOPARDISES HONEST BUSINESSES, CONSUMER TRUST AND HEALTH. AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE

made by the company named on the label. Is THE RANGE OF POTENTIAL ISSUES it Scottish beef? Or Parma ham? The range of potential issues is wide and changing, and often IS WIDE AND CHANGING, AND motivated by the high financial gains that can be OFTEN MOTIVATED BY THE HIGH made through illegal activity. The most counterfeited products are FINANCIAL GAINS THAT CAN BE those of higher price, by virtue of intellectual MADE THROUGH ILLEGAL ACTIVITY. property or brand equity, and/or the scarcity of components or ingredients, or the cost of complex production or processing. This provides a degree of predictability that can be built in technology advancement. to risk assessments, and which enables better This complexity might in future benefit from targeting of enforcement resources. Prediction developments in ‘big data’ by capturing, combining of risk forms an important part of the National and analysing multiple and variable information Intelligence Model8, which is also informed by sources to improve risk assessment and incident horizon-scanning: using global data feeds of prediction. As yet, there is insufficient information recalls or incidents, for example, as well as local sharing across multiple interfaces: from agency information from whistleblowers. Regulatory to agency, and especially between some parts of bodies monitor incidents and recalls at national, industry and government. Until our intelligence regional and global levels. For pharmaceuticals, systems improve, it remains highly likely that national authorities such as the UK’s Medicines incidents and criminal activity will continue to be and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency detected on a regular basis through health events (MHRA) post information on local recalls9 (as is still the case for the many deaths caused while the World Health Organization provides by counterfeit medicines, particularly in the 111 information on counterfeit medicines at a global developing world) or by targeted surveillance by level10. Similarly in the foods area, EU member Trading Standards and government programmes states have national systems for reporting non- (as was the case with horse meat). It is also compliance incidents relating to food and feed worth reflecting that improved intelligence can that has been inspected on the market or at the only partially mitigate the likelihood of fraud, since border, and if appropriate these are shared across those involved in related criminal activity have a geographies through the Rapid Alert System very wide field of opportunity and are normally for Food and Feed11 operated by the European adept at reacting to intelligence-led activities. Commission. Although incidents or recalls report events DEVELOPMENTS IN MEASUREMENT after they have happened, they provide an insight SCIENCE into the potential for similar events to occur in Given the challenges of identifying areas of future the future and are consequently useful data feeds concern, detection technology is needed that can for organisations that review risk (such as the not only analyse for specific ingredients (‘known European Food Safety Authority’s Stakeholder knowns’), but also screen for potential adulterants Group on Emerging Risks, and the EU Food (‘known unknowns’) and ideally for anything that Fraud Network). However, better prediction of should not be present within the end product quality or authenticity issues requires complex (‘unknown unknowns’). The later, often termed interpretation of multiple information sets that ‘untargeted analysis’, creates a major challenge in include an understanding of influencing factors measurement science and will most likely require such as price, production cost, supply chain and the flexible application of multiple techniques to manufacturing complexity, regulatory activity, deliver the necessary range of sensitivities and ease of ingredient or component substitution, chemical or biological diversity. likelihood of identification, and ease of detection. Fortunately, developments in measurement Each of these influencers is subject to change science continue to enhance investigative in response to macroeconomic factors such capability. The major trends include an increased as oil price, consumer confidence, materials ability to screen for multiple chemicals or demand and global outputs (e.g. crop yields) and biological forms; improvements in sensitivity; and FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

NUCLEAR FORENSICS

VLADIMÍR ŠUCHA, MARIA BETTI AND KLAUS LÜTZENKIRCHEN, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

ince the early 1990s, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the NUCLEAR FORENSIC INVESTIGATION European Commission has assisted USES MANY DIFFERENT ANALYTICAL government authorities by analysing TECHNIQUES, SUCH AS GAMMA nuclear materials intercepted from illicit Strafficking, unauthorised possession and illegal SPECTROMETRY, SEVERAL DIFFERENT disposals. Nuclear forensic analysis provides TYPES OF MASS SPECTROMETRY, AND information about where and when the seized material was produced, as well as its intended ELECTRON MICROSCOPY TECHNIQUES. use. Nuclear forensic investigation uses many different analytical techniques, such as gamma age of the pellets (the uranium used for pellet spectrometry, several different types of mass production was prepared in November 1990, spectrometry, and electron microscopy with an uncertainty of three months). techniques. In recent years it has focused on The knowledge that the JRC gains from 112 characteristic parameters called nuclear forensic its wide experience in case work, and its signatures, which are found in uranium ore continuous research and development activities, concentrates and other uranium products from is transferred to national governmental the nuclear fuel cycle. These signatures include organisations by providing training courses in the ratios of stable isotopes of elements such as nuclear forensic investigations. This training sulphur, strontium and neodymium; the relative covers areas including: national response concentrations of rare earth elements; and the plans; basic training for first responders (e.g. at ratio of thorium-230 to uranium-234, which can radiological crime scenes); specialised training for enable investigators to determine the origin and measurement experts; and tailor-made training the age of the material. courses for laboratory scientists in specific The following example highlights the potential methods and instruments. for a nuclear forensic investigation to resolve International cooperation in nuclear forensics a case of illicit possession of nuclear material. is of the utmost importance, because nuclear In 2007, several items – presumably pellets security is a border-crossing challenge. Illicit of nuclear fuel – were seized by the police in trafficking incidents, and the responses of Northern Germany. The JRC’s Institute for government authorities, often involve more Transuranium Elements (ITU) in Karlsruhe was than one country. The JRC has been co-chairing asked to characterise the material and to provide the International Technical Working Group in clues on its origin. The pellet material was Nuclear Forensics since its foundation in 1995 identified by mass spectrometry as low-enriched – which includes co-operation with the UK’s uranium with 3.4% of fissile uranium-235, typical Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE – see of nuclear reactor fuel. case study on p116) and National Nuclear Adding the information on the pellets’ Laboratory – and is involved in the activities dimensions, measured by microscopy, allowed of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear investigators to identify the production facility. Terrorism (GICNT). It also cooperates closely This origin was corroborated by the low trace- with the International Atomic Energy Agency element content of the pellets, which was (IAEA) in many areas related to nuclear security, consistent with the fabrication process used in particularly in nuclear forensics. that particular facility; as well as by the measured AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE

the facility to deploy tools out in the field. More THE REQUIREMENT FOR APPROPRIATE sophisticated tools are also being developed that, for example, provide evidence relating to the REFERENCE DATABASES IS A RECURRING source of ingredients or production, or to the THEME. THEY ARE ESSENTIAL FOR authenticity of associated packaging. Untargeted investigations applying INTERPRETING VARIATIONS FROM A chemometrics (the application of mathematical PRODUCT’S EXPECTED COMPOSITION. approaches to handing complex data sets) to spectroscopy is a well known research area12. There are a number of other measurement techniques that can screen samples for used this technology to analyse for differences multiple small and large molecules, such as between closely related fruit species, and thereby proteins and DNA, and these have advanced identify chemical targets that indicate the trace over the past decade in response to market adulteration of foods with allergenic ingredients17. needs and to new requirements in areas like Broad screening of proteins is also possible biomarker identification and ‘omics’ investigation. through techniques such as highly multiplex For example, the measurement of multiple immunoassays and array technology18. Protein small organic molecules by nuclear magnetic microarrays are used for both analytical and resonance13 (NMR) or mass spectrometry14 functional applications, such as studies of protein (MS) has been applied extensively to study interaction, biochemical activity and immune the so-called metabolome – the range of small response. These analyses mostly involve arrays molecules that appear in biological samples as of antibodies that bind to specific proteins, a consequence of, for example, the activities of and are applied primarily in clinical chemistry. human metabolism. MS combined with liquid However, the low cost and sensitivity of antibody 113 or gas chromatography (which can separate detection methods also lends itself to many other the chemical components of mixtures) is now applications relating to biological origin (including a routine tool within analytical laboratories. It authenticity and allergenicity), and the simplicity is used in a wide range of areas that require of related detection methods could a powerful analysis for multiple chemical forms, including the way to move from laboratory measurement to screening of food and environmental samples field-based application (see below) if issues in for the presence of pesticide and drug residues, specificity and cross-reactivity can be resolved. studies of drug metabolism, and investigations in Medium-density microarrays have also seen forensic toxicology. a recent resurgence in molecular biology. They Advances in chromatography now allow are used to identify multiple genetic variants, hundreds of chemicals to be screened in a for example, and for the broad screening of single measurement run, generating information- multiple genes and RNAs. As such, they add rich datasets that can be stored for future to a molecular biology tool kit that includes interrogation should knowledge of new threats other measurement techniques including next- subsequently emerge. With the continued growth generation sequencing (NGS), high-throughput in MS databases, and the advances being made genotyping and multiplexed real-time PCR. in data mining and analysis, it is now possible Such techniques are extremely powerful in to generate ‘fingerprints’ for particular product determining biological origin because they can types, and to identify the presence of unexpected discriminate closely-related (sub) species, and or unknown compounds15. These approaches even pin down a sample’s geographic origin if have already shown promise in studies of food high-quality reference sequence databases are authenticity and for identifying unknown ‘designer available. steroids’ in sport doping investigations16, and are Indeed, this requirement for appropriate expected to gain more widespread usage as the reference databases is a recurring theme. technology continues to evolve. Reference databases are essential for Accurate mass MS is now also routinely interpreting variations from a product’s expected applied in protein (peptide) analysis and in composition, and apply equally to methods that ‘proteomics’. As Government Chemist, we have measure the overall response of a product to an FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

OUR ABILITY TO EXTRACT AND AMPLIFY DNA IS NOW SUCH THAT, IN PRINCIPLE, IT IS POSSIBLE TO DETECT SINGLE GENE COPIES, EVEN AGAINST A HIGH BACKGROUND OF GENETIC MATERIAL.

external input, as well as those that seek specific and count individual molecules. These advances chemicals or chemical sequences. Approaches offer great potential for diagnostics, for research that depend on reference databases include: at the cellular level and for identifying potentially • multi-spectral imaging for determining food harmful contaminants. However, the application authenticity19 of ultra-sensitive techniques in forensics and • near infra-red (NIR) and Raman spectroscopy, compliance testing needs to be approached with which are useful for pharmaceutical counterfeit appropriate interpretative caution. detection20 due their discriminating power, For example, as the relevance and value of portability and relatively simple operation (see DNA profiling to forensic investigations has Chapter 12, case study p138) increased, so too has the desire to generate • electrical and optical testing, and digital imaging, this information from smaller amounts of DNA. of electrical components21 When the level of DNA in a sample falls well • spectroscopic methods for detecting below the recommended threshold it is still counterfeit clothing22 possible to generate interpretable profiles, but these need to be evaluated more carefully: TEASING OUT TRACES contamination raises the risk of misidentification, 114 Advances in measurement science have not and there is a greater likelihood of obtaining only improved our ability to screen multiple partial profiles and seeing other imperfections in components – they have also allowed the DNA amplification process that might lead investigators to detect compounds at increasingly to incorrect interpretation of the data25. These diminishing levels. Forensic science remains a challenges in DNA apply equally to issues in catalyst for this trend: it aims to generate DNA authenticity and compliance, such as the presence data whenever possible; to find traces of chemical of trace levels of species (for example, genetically warfare agents and their derivatives, which may modified organisms) in processed foods and inform security activities; and to provide evidence other products. of criminal activity, such as the handling of drugs. Many synthetic chemicals can now Our ability to extract and amplify DNA be detected at background levels in the is now such that, in principle, it is possible to environment. These levels and variations need detect single gene copies, even against a high to be understood before setting meaningful background of genetic material. For example, action or compliance limits, as do the current digital PCR23 (dPCR), an approach first developed limitations of associated measurement capability in the 1990s, is a technique that is used to (see Chapter 14). As such, regulation and policy quantify the amount of DNA in a sample by that is based on based on zero tolerance, counting amplifications from single molecules. such as banned veterinary residues in food Improvements in MS are leading to selective and drugs in sport, will become increasingly methods that can detect molecules at less than difficult to enforce without effective guidelines a picogram (10-12 g) per kilogram of sample. for interpretation. Such guidelines should Even higher sensitivities are possible using recognise well-developed statistical techniques immunoassays, in which improved affinities, in hypothesis testing and advances in toxicology better methods and novel forms of detection such as margin of exposure26 comparative have enabled signal generation with femtogram risk assessment. We need further exploration (10-15 g) to attogram (10-18 g) levels of input and dissemination of approaches to establish material24. Indeed, the combination of sensitive practical yet suitably precautionary approaches detection with solution partition or imaging has to essentially unanswerable questions such led to a number of approaches that can detect as “Is it nut free?” or “Is it carcinogen-free?”. AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE

Can anything ever be claimed as ‘pure’? (see techniques are increasingly being evaluated for case study on p120). To what extent does use in traceability studies, as is evident from the the presence of chemicals at ultra-trace levels number of national and international traceability really indicate contamination or adulteration, projects now in existence (e.g. Labelfish, the or represent a meaningful risk to consumers? Atlantic Network on Genetic Control of Fish and These are questions that will need to be Seafood Labelling and Traceability). Approaches addressed as our measurement tool kit including end-point PCR, real-time PCR, and continues to advance. Moreover, there is an DNA sequencing can identify and capitalise unmet need for the development and teaching upon minute differences in the genome of of end-to-end interpretative skills across geographically-isolated populations of the same multiple disciplines in areas such as forensic species, and can be used to augment the more science and food crime. routinely used elemental and isotope-based Traditional crime scene forensic investigations measurements for point-of-origin studies. draw together all of the available evidence and then apply multiple techniques in order to build IN THE FIELD up a picture of what occurred, and the roles of All of the advanced detection and identification the specific individuals that were present when technology described so far is normally operated the offence was committed. There are analogies in controlled laboratory environments, with here with the more general fight against fraud documented and accredited quality systems that and counterfeiting, where the article is often incorporate procedures for calibration (by using distributed with additional components, and appropriate certified reference materials, for where potential surface contamination can example). provide useful intelligence. These additional and These laboratory measurements can provide rich sources of information reside, for example, in reliable data that is quantified to a known level 115 the form of external packaging and blister packs of uncertainty, satisfying the needs of regulators for pharmaceuticals; labels and logos for designer and our legal system. However, laboratory goods; and packaging and identification numbers measurement requires samples to be taken for electronic devices. from the field, transported and administratively Similar to crime scene forensics, analysing processed prior to analysis. This takes time products and their associated articles for (typically days) and requires systems to be in authenticity and compliance often requires place for tracking and ensuring continuity of multiple measurement techniques, including evidence. Ultimately, though, the data generated specialist methods that are not routinely is only representative of the sample provided, and applied in product quality control and assurance hence interpretation is needed to elucidate how (see Chapter 11). Notable in this respect is the this relates to the entire batch of product under emergence of isotope ratio measurement27, investigation. which exploits the subtle geographic differences These limitations mean that there is now in the ratios of stable isotopes of common significant interest in techniques that can elements to investigate claims about a product’s be applied in the field to provide real-time origin. This is potentially the most challenging information, and to assist in product sampling of all authenticity issues e.g. is this Atlantic or strategies to maximise the likelihood of detecting Pacific cod? Was this chemical made in factory non-compliant or fraudulent events. A range of X or factory Y? Was this wine made from technologies are under development for field grapes produced in region A or B? (see case application, and there are already a number study on p118). Although both elemental and isotope-based measurements provide the basis for much of LABORATORY MEASUREMENT REQUIRES the information pertaining to the point of origin SAMPLES TO BE TAKEN FROM THE FIELD, of animals, plants and food products, alternative rapid and cost effective methodologies are TRANSPORTED AND ADMINISTRATIVELY also being examined. For example, molecular PROCESSED PRIOR TO ANALYSIS. biology approaches that focus on DNA-based FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

PROVENANCE OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS

DANIEL THOMAS, Nuclear Threat Reduction, AWE

Imagine the following scenario, and the a scene, an object, a person or persons, identify questions it raises: the radioactive material and show where • Police receive a phone call claiming that a ‘dirty it could have originated. This relies on the bomb’ has been placed in central London. Is longstanding capabilities of AWE (the Atomic this real, or a hoax? Is there anything to find? Weapons Establishment) in this area, which have How to find it? been enhanced in recent years by the Ministry • Police then find a suspect package. Is this of Defence in order to respond to developing what they’re looking for? Is it a radiological or needs such as provenance. The Office for nuclear device? What precautions are needed? Security and Counterterrorism in the • Investigators confirm that the device contains Home Office also funded the Conventional nuclear material and explosives. But is it an Forensic Analysis Capability (CFAC) at AWE, improvised nuclear device (IND)? What could which provides the capability to carry out 116 the consequences be if it is detonated? recovery of fingerprints, DNA, fibres, hairs, • The device is made safe, and nobody is injured. and digital information from radioactively- But who was involved in building and planting contaminated items. the device? How did it happen? Where did the The approach taken at AWE, on behalf of the material come from? How was the material UK government, has been to ensure that nuclear removed from normal regulatory control? Is forensics can be carried out in an integrated this our material? If not, where did it come fashion, by bringing normally disparate technical from? Could there be other devices, or more disciplines together. Experts from a range lost material of concern? of disciplines will increasingly need to work together in order to solve the forensic puzzles Throughout this scenario it is clear that the presented by perpetrators. government, the police service and supporting Nuclear materials have been produced agencies would be faced with a multitude of globally over many decades in facilities that were urgent issues before investigative and forensic focused on producing material and meeting questions can be addressed. Nuclear materials the required specifications; personnel were not that represent the gravest concerns – those tasked with helping to establish provenance which can be used to build a nuclear device following the loss and subsequent discovery of – typically have half-lives longer than tens of that material. Consequently, there will probably thousands of years, giving them an enduring not be a predetermined ‘unique fingerprint’ for potential for misuse. identifying the provenance of many materials, But provenance will ultimately become a key nor will historical records necessarily provide question, asked by the most senior decision- the fidelity of data required for provenance makers. They will want to know where and assessments that use a data matching approach. how the material was acquired, and who was The challenges arising from questions involved. Nuclear forensics has a key role to play of provenance mean that new interpretive in answering these questions, by using forensic knowledge is being developed, in addition analysis to assess these radioactive substances as to the analytical capabilities to measure the well as items contaminated by them. properties of materials. New technical skills such Nuclear forensics can draw out links between as chemical modelling and statistical analysis will AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE

of good examples of where these are being deployed, including the use of transportable ion-mobility spectrometers (IMS) in airports and border crossings to detect explosives and drugs. Recently it has become possible to augment IMS at these sites using Raman spectroscopy to screen for the same types of compounds in packaged materials and solutions28. Raman and NIR have also been extensively investigated and used for the detection of pharmaceutical counterfeits, and hand-held versions of both are be needed to understand the properties now available for enforcement and surveillance20. of materials produced long ago in the UK, A range of other portable diagnostic devices is so that we can assess the future unknowns. emerging, which could transform enforcement This is particularly important as the people and supply chain monitoring. These include who worked in these production and sensor systems based on affinity reagents manufacturing domains retire. (immunoassays) with, for example, optical, By measuring various properties of the electrochemical or surface acoustic wave material (isotopic, chemical and physical), detection, and DNA diagnostics with on- identifying the type of process that may board amplification systems that are capable have produced it, and knowing whether of providing information in relatively short UK-produced materials are consistent with timeframes (typically 10-60 minutes). Indeed, those measured properties, investigators will DNA intelligence tools are already available for 29 be able to use an exclusion-based approach crime scene investigation and for rapid diagnosis 117 that allows them to rule out known sources of disease – further development is likely to from their investigations. Nuclear forensics and lead to instruments that can be deployed for provenance is an evolving discipline, and it has bio-security applications, and for food safety and great intellectual and technical opportunities authenticity screening. for scientists to apply themselves to matters of However, even with the support of portable national security concern. measurement instruments, detection tools will not be sufficient on their own to eliminate or identify all forms of fraud. Fraudsters will adjust their tactics, evading different forms of detection by exploiting weaknesses in measurement methods. This was most notably illustrated in China, when melamine was added to milk that had been watered down. The nitrogen- containing melamine was intended to fool the methods for determining milk content, which were based on the analysis of nitrogen as a quantitative measure of related proteins. Conversely, some organisations specifically add markers to their products to aid detection: drinks manufacturers may add combinations of chemicals (and macromolecules like DNA) to readily differentiate their products from counterfeit versions; and many companies add physical features such as watermarks or holograms as an anti-counterfeiting measure. Designing anti-counterfeit or safety and compliance measures into products, packaging and processes offers optimal protection to FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

FORENSIC GEOSCIENCE

LORNA DAWSON, Head of the Soil Forensic Group, James Hutton Institute; and RUTH MORGAN, Director of the UCL Centre for the Forensic Sciences

orensic geoscience is an increasingly im- development and availability of relevant databases, portant discipline that studies soils, min- allow forensic geoscientists to help police to search erals, dusts, plants and rock fragments for unknown objects or people, prioritise areas to help determine their provenance (i.e. for investigation or search, and provide robust and a chronology of their ownership, custody or loca- reliable evidence in court. Ftion). These materials have been used as forensic Advances in forensic geoscience have also trace evidence for many years and are often highly underscored the importance of developing the distinctive from one region to another. empirical evidence base that we need to interpret Such traces are extremely useful in a forensic and assign the significance and importance of context, because of their environmental specificity; these materials in specific scenarios. Without their high levels of transferability; their ability to these established evidence bases, it would not persist on items such as clothing, footwear, tools be possible to offer such reliable evidence for and vehicles; and their high levels of preservation presentation in court. after long periods of time, even after activities The full potential of forensic geoscience has 118 such as burning and washing. This resilience makes only truly begun to be recognised in the past geoforensic trace materials – frequently present decade. Since many criminals now show a high at crime scenes, and in forensic exhibits – highly level of forensic awareness in relation to evidence valuable forms of intelligence and evidence that such as fingerprints, blood and other body fluids can aid crime investigations and reconstructions. – along with an ability to fake products with There have been significant advances in forensic precision – police and security agents forensic geoscience over the past decade, both are encouraging the use of geoforensic evidence in the development of analytical approaches and applications. To date, forensic geoscience has also in understanding of the behaviour, transfer, mainly been used in the context of high-impact persistence and preservation of sediments, soils crimes such as murder, rape, aggravated burglary and plant material. Evidence samples can now and terrorism investigations, where resources allow be analysed by a wide range of complementary it. However, techniques are increasingly becoming methods that address their physical, chemical and cheaper and faster, and have the potential, once biological components with greater precision, fully tested, to become regularly used forensic speed and accuracy than ever before. This allows tools. samples of less than 10 milligrams to be accurately Forensic geoscience is also being applied in characterised, and mobile platforms are increasingly a wider range of investigations, including wildlife enabling real-time decisions that aid investigations. crime, fraud identification, food adulteration, These developments have enabled geoscience kidnapping, trafficking and smuggling. Using state- techniques to be applied in a greater range of-the-art techniques in chemistry, biology, and of cases, and in helping to review ‘cold cases’. microscopy, it is possible to identify if particular Improved analytical capabilities, coupled with the foods have come from a claimed location. For

THESE DEVELOPMENTS HAVE ENABLED GEOSCIENCE TECHNIQUES TO BE APPLIED IN A GREATER RANGE OF CASES, AND IN HELPING TO REVIEW ‘COLD CASES’ . AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE

THE GLOBAL ILLICIT ECONOMY HAS ALREADY INFILTRATED AND CORRUPTED LEGAL MARKETS, REDUCED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, IMPACTED TRADERS, PROVIDED A DISINCENTIVE TO INVESTMENTS IN R&D, AND example, elemental composition can indicate RAISED PUBLIC HEALTH RISKS. the type of soil in which garlic cloves were grown; isotope and trace chemical values can indicate in which distillery a whisky was produced; isotopes and elemental profiles show traders and the public (see Chapter 9). Other where cheeses, oils or soft fruit were produced; related measures include the ability to follow organic compound analysis can determine production process, and to track the movements cultivar level identification; strontium isotopes and associated environmental exposures of can discriminate between zones where beef ingredients, components and finished products has been produced; and grain shape and from source to retail. This approach is already texture can identify the beach where drugs being used in a number of areas: ear-tagging were imported from. individual cattle allows meat to be traced up Forensic geoscience can also help the food chain; quality-by-design and process investigators to reconstruct journey histories, monitoring tools support good manufacturing often a critical issue when reconstructing practice (GMP); radio-frequency identification 119 crime scenes and establishing pertinent time technology (RFID) tracks product movements; lines. Current research is demonstrating and continuous temperature monitoring ensures that sediments can be transferred to the the integrity of cold supply chains (see case components of improvised explosive devices studies on p112 and p116 for further examples (IEDs) or high-value goods, which can indicate about nuclear materials). where they were manufactured. This type of intelligence can indicate locations of interest in CONCLUSION terrorism and illegal trafficking investigations, The global illicit economy is growing rapidly, or reveal important social networks integral to due to a wide spectrum of activities that include terrorist activities. The sediments on footwear counterfeiting goods. It has already infiltrated and vehicles can indicate where a crime may and corrupted legal markets, reduced consumer have taken place, and may provide evidence of a confidence, impacted traders, provided a person being at a particular place of interest. disincentive to investments in R&D, and raised With the developments in analytical public health risks. technology, and an increasing understanding This threat is preventing fair markets of how soils and sediments move within from reaching their potential and endangering natural and anthropogenic environments, our health and safety. Technology – including forensic geoscience has more power to answer advances in measurement science – must questions such as: “Where did the trace material continue to evolve to meet this challenge. come from?” or “Where has this item been?”. Understanding the context of a specific case is crucial in helping to answer such questions. In addition, being able to explain the significance of the evidence that has been analysed, and demonstrating logically and transparently how a conclusion has been reached, remains important for forensic geoscience specifically and trace evidence generally. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

NOTIONS OF PURITY: AN ANTHROPOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE

FRANCESCA BRAY, Social Anthropology, University of Edinburgh

urity and pollution were initially understanding that pigs’ meat carries parasites treated in anthropology as exclusively dangerous to human health. This common- religious concepts1–3, and they remain sense interpretation, popular among cultural a central concern in the anthropolo- ecologists through the 1950s and 1960s and gy of religion today. Though variously defined in most vividly formulated by the cultural materialist Pdifferent religions, purity is everywhere a spiritual Marvin Harris, today attracts little anthropological precondition for communicating with the gods but much popular interest13, 14. “Comparative through prayer or ritual. religion has always been bedevilled by medical Purity can be defiled by inappropriate emotions materialism,” Mary Douglas remarks tartly15. or thoughts, acts or contacts, by sickness and The second school of thought about purity by passages through the life cycle, notably birth, and pollution originated in 19th and early 20th menstruation and death. Some categories century studies by Robertson Smith, Émile of people, things or acts are inherently and Durkheim and others who argued that religions 120 irrevocably tainted: a Hindu untouchable cannot are neither divinely inspired nor materially rooted. become touchable however pious his behaviour; Rather, they are an expression of collective values. in ancient Greece or imperial China there was Sacred and secular must therefore be analysed no redemption for parricide. Much pollution, not as separate domains but as interdependent however, is transitory and an affected individual can elements of a single moral-symbolic system. achieve or regain purity through rituals, discipline, It was the structuralist anthropologists of the pilgrimage, fasting or simply the passage of time. 1960s who breathed new life and vigour into For example, Christianity requires the ‘churching’ this approach. The landmark study was ‘Purity of a woman who has given birth; in Chinese and Danger’ by Mary Douglas. A focus on purity Buddhism the taint of a family death dissipates and pollution, Douglas showed, can illuminate the gradually, aided by a sequence of sacrifices for the deepest workings of any society, including our soul of the departed and their transformation into own. While the categories of purity and pollution an ancestral spirit. Typical prohibitions for saints may be most evident in the religious and ritual and priests, and for the laity before conducting domain, they reflect deeper structures of symbolic major rituals or undergoing rites of passage, thought manifested in secular values and everyday include bans on sexual intercourse, eating meat or practices, from the preparation of meals to expressing anger. Views on alcohol differ between definitions of nationality10, 16. religions: in some it is permanently forbidden to Dirt is matter out of place, Douglas famously all the faithful, in others one should abstain before remarked, and its threat to purity must therefore praying, some require officiants to share blessed be approached through order: “Uncleanness or wine with their congregation, while some require dirt is that which must not be included if a pattern anyone offering a sacrifice to be roaring drunk4–12. is to be maintained,” she wrote17. Danger lies How do we explain similarities and differences not in the existence of the unclean per se, but in in how purity and pollution are construed? the transgression of boundaries, the mingling of Anthropologists have taken two distinctive categories, the contamination of pure by approaches. One pragmatic, materialist school impure4, 12. Douglas’s important insight has inspired has sought to explain ‘native’ rules about purity as a succession of groundbreaking anthropological proto-scientific systems of hygiene, for instance studies of the imperatives of purity in such diverse interpreting the Judaic taboo on pork as a latent fields as racial science, nationalism, victims of AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE

EVEN IN THE STRICTLY MATERIAL SENSE, PURITY IS NOT A STATE OF NATURE, NOR IS IT UNCONDITIONALLY DESIRABLE.

atomic disasters, etiologies of AIDS, and views of research, seek effective catalysts for the reactions genetic engineering18–23. they want to produce, design instruments, carefully The underlying assumption here is that purity select and breed experimental animals to fit the is the desired state which any taint impairs. But experiments, pre-select the ecological niches or this attitude is more culture-bound than we soil cores with which they investigate ‘nature’27–29. realise. The development of modern science is a In the process, definition and distinction become history of purification. In order to extract better increasingly complex and challenging. Is a pest- knowledge, chemists, engineers and physicists have resistant GM eggplant more or less pure, natural quarried the messy material stuff that surrounds and organic than a non-GM eggplant treated us; isolated and purified it in order to classify it and with pesticides? From atmospheric levels of sulfur study its properties. Nature is then rendered into dioxide to the meat content of a proper sausage, its very purest form – abstract thought: theories scientists, regulators, legislators, corporations, or laws of universal validity, expressed in terse, farmers, shopkeepers, activists and consumers 121 uncontextualised verbal or numerical form24. wrangle continually over definitions and degrees of As Bruno Latour observes, a defining premise safe, acceptable or simply workable purity, impurity of modern sciences, both natural and social, or contamination30–32. and indeed of our modern life generally, is that Even in the strictly material sense, then, purity objectivity is considered both possible and is not a state of nature, nor is it unconditionally necessary. We have supposedly escaped the desirable. While regimes of purification bring primitive entanglement of mind, soul and body, of greater control, more predictability and increased moral and material. Instead we bring an effective efficiency, they also contain the threat of inbreeding, approach to the world and its problems that sterility and vulnerability. Purity and hybridity categorically separates the social and the natural, become inextricably entangled33. Pure lines of the human and the artefact, the mind and the wheat cannot rival hybrids for yields. They are objectively observable fact – a universal science painstakingly bred not to grow in their own right beyond politics or creed25. but to cross breed into high-yield hybrids. Hybrids, But in reality such purification is impossible, however, do not breed true and must be replaced as Latour and his fellow researchers in science yearly. In the case of wheat, pure lines must be and technology studies have shown. Science maintained to reproduce the essential hybrids. depends on funding and politics. Politics and power One could argue that in the case of human permeate every human act. Researchers are societies, a similar if not identical dialectic between cultural, political and often religious beings: nuclear purity and hybridisation, analogous processes scientists conduct rituals and rites of passage of hybridisation, miscegenation and tincture, are as part of their research; particle physicists and essential for long-term health and survival. And yet, molecular biologists evaluate the quality of evidence as anthropological studies of assisted reproductive in quite distinctive ways26. Environments are co- technologies or of immigration vividly illustrate, produced by the collectivity of their denizens, they are widely viewed with misgiving, resentment and humans more than any other life form have or fear16, 19, 34, 35. The anthropology of purity remade ‘nature’ in their own image throughout reminds us that culture, politics and morality are their existence. Scientists do not discover nature intrinsic to any scientific or legislative attempt to in the raw; they define the categories they will classify or to purify. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CHAPTER 11

FOOD AND DRINK

VLADIMÍR ŠUCHA, Food adulteration is as old as trade itself, but it has grown into a global criminal enterprise ELKE ANKLAM AND that costs billions of pounds in lost revenue every year, and may also put consumers at risk FRANZ ULBERTH, of harm. Authorities and policymakers must have access to up-to-date knowledge about Joint Research Centre, fraud detection and prevention technologies to safeguard the integrity of the food chain. European Commission

he adulteration of foods has a year1. Preventing fraud in the agri-food chain, history dating back to ancient and promoting authentic products, are key times. Cato gave one of the goals to assure the commercial success of earliest accounts of adulteration of European high-value agri-food products on foodstuffs in his treatise ‘On Agriculture’ (around international markets. Marketing standards and T160 BC) when he reported on the adulteration EU quality schemes aim to ensure that consumer of wine. Likewise, Roman legislation was aware expectations are met, and enable the functioning that olive oil can be a target of fraudulent co- of the internal market and global trade in mingling. Food adulteration practices are as old as agricultural products. Losing reputation in this trade, and strict punishment of fraudsters, when area will negatively impact on competitiveness detected, was announced and implemented. and profitability of the agri-food sector in the EU. One of the earliest known modern accounts on food fraud was given by Frederick Accum, CHALLENGES IN FOOD AND DRINK 122 who published ‘A Treatise on Adulterations AUTHENTICITY CONTROL of Food and Culinary Poisons’ in 1820. He The driving force behind food adulteration is described common malpractices such as to maximise revenues by either using a cheap adding chalk to flour, and sawdust to bread, sa ingredient to (partially) substitute a more well as recycling spent tea leaves and coffee expensive one; or to (partially) remove the grounds. Intentional food adulteration increased higher-valued component in the hope that the considerably during the Industrial Revolution altered product passes undetected by the final following the separation of the direct link user or consumer. For example, fraudulently between farmers/food producers and town watering down milk or skimming off cream have dwellers. Unfortunately, some of the known both been practised for a long time. malpractices raised concern for food safety. Certain production methods, notably for Examples include the introduction of chemical organic foods or those where animal welfare hazards through adding, for instance, strychnine practices are promoted (e.g. free-range to beer to save on the more expensive bitter products), have gained a significant market share hops; colouring candies and preserves with in developed countries. The popularity of these toxic metal salts; or diluting vegetable oils with production methods arises from widely-held industrial oils. beliefs about their superior nutritional qualities Fraudulent malpractice creates unfair resulting from their ‘naturalness’, which should be competition, leading to market distortions, preserved to a higher degree. which in turn may impact the local or even Similarly, the marketing of agricultural the international economy. Today, economic products has been focused recently on the adulteration and counterfeiting of global food promotion of premium goods in Western and consumer products is expected to cost countries. Such products command a premium the industry $10 billion to $15 billion per because they were produced within a well-

FOOD CONTROL AUTHORITIES NEED TO CONTINUALLY ADAPT EXISTING TECHNIQUES AND DEVELOP NEW METHODOLOGIES TO DETECT FRAUD FOOD AND DRINK

defined geographical location, and/or applying FRAUDULENT MALPRACTICE only traditional methods of production, and/ or using only certain ingredients (see case CREATES UNFAIR COMPETITION study p125). Similar considerations apply to WHICH MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL OR other speciality products, such as foodstuffs that respect fair-trade principles or religious INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY. TODAY, beliefs (e.g. halal or kosher) or care for the ECONOMIC ADULTERATION AND environment (e.g. food miles). To capitalise on market demands and improve profits, goods of COUNTERFEITING OF GLOBAL FOOD lower economic value may be co-mingled into AND CONSUMER PRODUCTS IS higher priced commodities. This harms honest producers who suffer from unfair competition, EXPECTED TO COST THE INDUSTRY and consumers whose fundamental rights are $10 BILLION TO $15 BILLION PER YEAR. violated by fraud. Extension of a product with a cheap ingredient, or counterfeiting of a branded product, does not usually carry a health hazard for consumers. But 1 Identification of a marker (or markers) that there are notable exceptions. In 1981, the Toxic allow discrimination between the genuine Oil Syndrome in Spain affected nearly 20,000 and the adulterated state of a food or food consumers who ate rapeseed oil denatured with ingredient. Detection can be rather simple aniline that was refined and sold to consumers if the commodity used for extending the as olive oil2. In 2008, the Chinese milk scandal authentic product introduces a substance sickened more than 50,000 children after they (marker) that is not naturally present in the 3 consumed milk tainted with melamine ; and in original. For example, the addition of vegetable 123 2012, 38 people died in the Czech Republic oils or fats to butter can be easily detected following the consumption of spirits in which part by tracing phytosterols, which do not occur of the ethanol was replaced by methanol4. in measurable amounts in genuine butter fat. The need to detect the intentional addition In most cases, however, such fundamental of hazardous chemicals gave a great impetus to differences do not exist, and scientists the development of analytical chemistry applied need to rely on empirical differences in the to food, and the establishment of food chemistry composition of constituents of the genuine as a scientific discipline enabled society to and the adulterated product. Quite often, adopt appropriate countermeasures to pursue advanced statistical techniques are necessary fraud. But unscrupulous purveyors of fraud also to turn analytical data into information for benefited from this development, because the decision-making. availability of compositional data enabled them to fine-tune their illicit manipulations in order 2 Access to authentic samples to establish the to evade legal action. In general, fraudsters markers and develop diagnostic tests. Physical tend to be quite innovative and well informed access to samples can sometimes represent a about weak points in food inspection systems. bottleneck, particularly when the food has been Therefore, food control authorities need to grown or produced overseas. Repositories of continually adapt existing techniques, and authentic samples are difficult to maintain, so develop new methodologies, to detect fraud and characteristic features (e.g. compositional data, protect the fundamental rights of consumers. spectra, molecular markers, etc) are stored in Food fraud can have various levels of electronic format. Creating and curating such complexity, from diluting milk with water to databanks is a resource-intensive process, and a very complex practice of adding gently- access in certain cases is only possible on a deodorised olive oil to extra virgin olive oil. subscription or fee-for-service basis, which Correspondingly, methods for detecting fraud could limit their public use. The EU wine range from simple to highly sophisticated databank, established already in the 1990s in approaches. In principle, the food forensic accordance with Regulation (EU) 1306/2013 scientist faces three problems5: (ref. 6) and. operated by the European FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

THE FIGHT AGAINST FOOD FRAUD CALLS FOR AN INTERNATIONAL APPROACH INVOLVING COOPERATION AND CONSULTATION AMONG ALL STAKEHOLDERS, AT ALL LEVELS OF THE FOOD CHAIN. INVESTIGATIONS CARRIED OUT BY EUROPOL SUGGEST THAT ORGANISED CRIME SYNDICATES ARE INCREASINGLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CASES OF FOOD FRAUD AND ADULTERATION.

Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), is Standards Agency8, for example, food fraud is one of the few examples where compositional committed when food is deliberately placed on data of a premier agricultural product are the market, for financial gain, with the intention systematically collected. The databank contains of deceiving the consumer. the isotopic composition of wines, which are Certain diagnostic tests, in particular those made available to the competent authorities in based on DNA analysis, are highly sensitive the Member States when disputes regarding and can indicate the presence of exogenous watering or sugaring of wine arise. DNA as a result of contamination due to cross-contact with other foodstuffs. To decide 3 Creating reliable forensic evidence and whether the presence of a foreign substance confidence in the data that will stand up is due to accidental contamination or intended to scrutiny in the judicial system. Cases co-mingling requires an assessment of the 124 where only one marker forms the basis for amount of the substance present, which is not discriminating the genuine and the adulterated straightforward to derive from the quantity of product are relatively straightforward to foreign DNA. This kind of uncertainty needs to handle, taking into consideration the empirical be taken account of when weighing the forensic distribution of the marker, as well as the evidence in a court of law. uncertainty in the measurement of the The horsemeat adulteration scandal showed marker. But things get more complicated that one of the weaknesses of the current when complex statistical models using many system of enforcement along the food chain input variables (e.g. those generated by was that Member States’ competent authorities spectroscopy) have to be used for decision- found it difficult to communicate efficiently with making. The judicial system does not their counterparts in other Member States — always accept evidence generated by such which is essential in cases where violations have approaches. cross-border impact. The Commission decided therefore to In the EU, Article 8 of the EU General Food activate a dedicated network of administrative Law7 stipulates that the interests of consumers assistance liaison bodies that would handle shall be protected by preventing fraudulent or specific requests for cross-border cooperation deceptive practices misleading the consumer. in cases of ‘food fraud’. The dedicated liaison In addition, national laws in EU Member States bodies are referred to as Food Fraud Contact provide various definitions for the violation Points (FFCP). They act, as do all administrative of statutory agri-food chain requirements. assistance liaison bodies, within the legal They are qualified by the intention to deceive, framework provided in Title IV of Regulation and the motive of financial or economic gain, (EC) No 882/2004. The group of FFCPs is though constitutive elements vary from one collectively referred to as the Food Fraud national system to the other. In a number of Network (FFN)9. Member States, those facts may be relevant On 14 January 2014, the European for the application of criminal penalties and Parliament published a resolution on the of procedural rules on criminal prosecution. control of fraud in the food chain10, calling According to a statement by the UK Food on the European Commission to take all FOOD AND DRINK

CASE STUDY

SCOTCH WHISKY: AUTHENTICITY, PROVENANCE AND ASSURANCE

JULIE HESKETH-LAIRD, Deputy Chief Executive of the Scotch Whisky Association

cotch Whisky is a prestigious spirit drink Brand owners may build up unique and with a global reputation. Sold in around confidential authenticity indictors underpinning 200 markets worldwide, Scotch Whisky the analytical fingerprints of their brands. Fast and exports are worth around £4 billion reliable field tests have even been developed for each year. use in market. SThe Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) works to Our strategy for generic analysis has involved sustain Scotch Whisky’s place as the world’s leading developing an analytical fingerprint for Scotch high-quality spirit drink and secure its long-term Whiskies as a whole. This fingerprint can then growth in the market. be used to show how Scotch Whisky is distinct Scotch Whisky is protected as a ‘geographical from whiskies of other origins, other distilled spirits indication’ (GI) to safeguard the industry’s intellectual or cheaper neutral alcohol, each of which may property and underpin our cultural heritage and contribute to the composition of products falsely employment. We want consumers to be assured claiming authenticity. 125 that they are getting the best product, traditionally For example, Scotch Whisky must be matured produced to strict standards. Scotch Whisky’s in oak barrels for at least three years. Maturation reputation has taken years to build and we are changes the chemical composition of the spirit, committed to maintaining and building on that. with the lignin in the wood broken down into That is why a major part of the SWA’s work compounds that can be identified by analysis. is to safeguard Scotch Whisky against fraud. At Chemical analysis can therefore indicate whether any one time our legal team has about 70 actions the maturation compounds are consistent with in courts around the world, and many more aging in oak for at least three years, and identify investigations under way. Crucial in the fight against flavourings that have been added to mimic the fakes is the need to determine whether the effects of maturation. suspected product is consistent with Scotch Whisky. The SWA instructs an independent laboratory Investigations require forensic support in the set up by the Scotch Whisky industry, the Scotch form of authenticity analysis of the liquid. As well Whisky Research Institute (SWRI), to analyse as determining spirit strength and the presence products described as ‘Scotch Whisky’, but of additives — which are not permitted in Scotch suspected to be fake. We are one of several Whisky — sophisticated techniques are employed customers of the SWRI, which also assists to check authenticity. enforcement authorities in the UK and abroad. The The raw materials and production processes SWRI has access not only to published research used to produce Scotch Whisky result in a spirit on the analysis of Scotch Whisky, but also has its with certain chemical characteristics that can be own extensive database on the analysis of Scotch checked by analysis. This is because the production Whiskies collected over many years. Every year of genuine Scotch Whisky leads to the presence around 160 suspect ‘whisky’ samples sourced by of certain components in the finished product. the SWA are tested by SWRI, which also provides Many of these components will contribute to the expert evidence in legal proceedings in respect of colour, aroma and taste of scotch. The relative and many of the samples tested. absolute concentrations of particular components Robust protection of Scotch Whisky requires allow conclusions to be drawn on how the product robust science, and the Scotch Whisky industry has been made. has both. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

necessary steps to make combating food came to similar conclusions12. In response to fraud an integral part of EU policy. It also the horsemeat scandal, the UK government encouraged the commission to consider commissioned Chris Elliott of Queen’s developing an EU reference laboratory University Belfast to review the integrity for food authenticity, and called for the and assurance of food supply networks. His establishment of an anti-food fraud network report identified several systemic gaps and as a means of improving coordination among suggestions for addressing them, including the the competent European bodies (Europol, need for unannounced audits of food business Eurojust), in order to prevent and detect food operators; intelligence gathering; strengthening fraud more efficiently. The associated report11 the Public Analyst system; and setting up a identified the top 10 food products that are food crime unit and crime prevention activities most at risk of food fraud (see Table 1); a within the UK Food Standards Agency13 (see US Congressional Research Service report case study p129).

Table 1: Top 10 food products that are most at risk of food fraud

COMMODITY FRAUD CASES

OLIVE OIL Extension with other vegetable oils, notably hazelnut oil Misdescription of geographical origin and olive variety Misdescription of olive oil quality (refined oil sold as extra virgin oil)

126 FISH Substitution of high-value fish, particularly filets, by cheaper varieties Substitution of ‘wild-caught’ fish by farmed fish Misdescription of geographical origin (particularly for salmon) Misbranding of ordinary catch as coming from sustainably managed stocks

ORGANIC Misdescription of production method FOOD

MILK Addition of water and salts Substitution of milk from other species (ovine, caprine, ewes, human) by cow’s milk Substitution of milk protein or fat by non-milk ingredients (plant proteins, animal and vegetable fats) Addition of nitrogen-rich substances (e.g. melamine, urea) to increase apparent protein content Misdescription of milk reconstituted from milk powder as fresh milk

GRAIN Misdescription of soft wheat as hard wheat (durum wheat) Misdescription of long grain rice as Basmati rice

HONEY Extension of honey by sugar syrups obtained from sugar cane, sugar beet, maize, wheat, rice, agave, maple Misdescription of geographical origin and botanical variety

COFFEE Misdescription of geographical origin and variety (Coffea robusta, Coffea arabica) Extension with roasted cereals, chicory, figs, caramel, malt

TEA Misdescription of geographical origin and variety Extension with twigs and leaves from other plants, coloured sawdust, used tea leaves

SPICES Addition of synthetic dyes (e.g. Sudan red) Extension with extraneous substances

WINE Addition of water and sugaring of must (chaptalisation) Misdescription of geographical origin, grape variety and vintage year Addition of chemicals (e.g. diethylenglycol)

FRUIT Addition of water, sugars or pulp wash JUICES Extension of authentic juice with cheaper alternatives FOOD AND DRINK

Table 2: Fingerprinting techniques used in food forensics, grouped by type and/or analysis target

ELECTROPHORETIC DNA ANALYSIS SPECTROSCOPIC CHROMATOGRAPHIC (PROTEINS)

Protein electrophoresis Restriction fragment length UV/Visible Thin-layer (TLC) polymorphism (RFLP) Isoelectric focusing Fluorescence Gas-liquid (GLC) Random amplified Two-dimensional polymorphic DNA (RAPD) (Fourier-transform) infrared High-performance liquid electrophoresis (HPLC) Amplified fragment length Raman polymorphism (AFLP) Mass (MS) Simple sequence repeats Nuclear magnetic resonance (SSR) (NMR) Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP

FORENSIC TECHNIQUES Analysts will use a targeted technique if The fight against food fraud calls for an they know what kind of adulterant has been international approach involving cooperation and used (e.g. a DNA-based assay for detecting consultation among all stakeholders, at all levels horsemeat, or a chromatographic method for 127 of the food chain. Investigations carried out by detecting melamine added to a dairy product); Europol suggest that organised crime syndicates or they will resort to an untargeted technique if are increasingly responsible for cases of food no prior information exists. In the former case, fraud and adulteration. analysts will only detect what they are looking Consequently, the detection and prevention for (‘known knowns’), whereas the latter tries of food fraud requires strategic planning and to address the ‘unknown unknowns’. Since investment at the national and European level many different adulterants can be used, the with a proportionate and sustainable budget. effectiveness of targeted testing for detecting It also requires access by the enforcement food fraud is limited; methods that assess the authorities to state-of-the-art analytical tools, ‘integrity’ of the food are, therefore, becoming which enable them to detect (and provide popular. judicial evidence of) fraudulent practices. Analytical approaches used in food forensics Modern measurement science offers a wealth are based on separation science; spectroscopy; of technologies that can be used to detect molecular biology; and analysis of stable isotopes fraud in the food chain. Traditionally, chemical of light elements. The first approach tries to composition analysis has played a dominant unravel the composition of mostly small organic role, particularly where marketing standards for molecules (metabolites) of a particular food or certain commodities (e.g. edible oils, honey, etc) food ingredient to create a detailed, quantitative exist. Where the test results of a suspect product profile, or a qualitative fingerprint that is do not conform to the standard, fraudulent characteristic of the authentic product. Several manipulations may be the obvious reason. Simple forms of spectroscopy (UV/Visible, fluorescence, physicochemical methods, such us freezing- Fourier-transform infrared, Raman, or nuclear point depression (e.g. for detecting the watering magnetic resonance) create fingerprints without of milk), electrical conductivity and refractive prior separation of individual components and index (e.g. for honey authenticity) are suitable are consequently viewed as ‘holistic’ methods, to detect gross violation. But more refined which use the whole information content of the techniques need to be applied to identify more created spectra. sophisticated cases of adulteration. Methods based on DNA analysis are FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

EU QUALITY POLICY HAS CREATED more widely applied statistical techniques are principal component analysis (PCA), linear QUALITY SCHEMES THAT GRANT discriminant analysis (LDA), soft independent PROTECTED DESIGNATION OF ORIGIN modelling of class analogy (SIMCA), partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), LABELS TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS and artificial neural networks. Some of the AND FOODSTUFFS, WHICH ARE statistical routines even allow quantification of added substances. Chemometrics, which is PRODUCED, PROCESSED AND PREPARED the use of advanced statistics for the analysis IN A GIVEN GEOGRAPHICAL AREA of chemical and biological data, has been developed, refined and applied with success in USING RECOGNISED KNOW-HOW. academic research related to food forensics. However, the criminal courts have been slow to accept its utility for evaluating and weighing evidence, despite the existence of solid invaluable for the discrimination of food- knowledge in the field of forensic statistics16. producing animal and plant species. The power An important quality characteristic of inherent in DNA analysis has enabled law certain food products or ingredients is enforcement in difficult cases where certain their geographical origin. EU quality policy varieties of a given species command different has created quality schemes that grant prices, or are used for distinguishing quality Protected Designation of Origin labels to levels. DNA-based assays have been used agricultural products and foodstuffs, which are to discriminate, for example, Arabica from produced, processed and prepared in a given 128 Robusta coffee beans, mandarin from orange geographical area using recognised know-how. juice, several meat species, Basmati rice from Verifying that claim is a delicate task, requiring other long-grain rice, grape varieties used in isotopic ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) wine making, and olive cultivars for olive oil analysis of the stable isotopes of light elements production14. Real-time quantitative polymerase (hydrogen/deuterium, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, chain reaction (PCR) based tests are even sulphur), which are related to the region where able to estimate the amount of the adulterant the products were grown (see Chapter 10 added (e.g. the amount of horsemeat in beef case study p118). Specifically, stable isotope burgers). The PCR products (amplicons) ratios of hydrogen (H) and oxygen (O) in can further be manipulated and separated produce relate to the environmental water of by electrophoresis to generate specific the growing region. Isotope effects fractionate fingerprints, which are of diagnostic value. H and O isotopes through evaporation, Table 2 gives an overview of fingerprinting condensation and precipitation as they move techniques used in food forensics15. through the hydrological cycle. These effects Combinations of techniques exist: the are well understood and have led to the most widely used combines GLC or HPLC production of isotope landscapes (isoscapes), with mass spectrometry (MS). In using these allowing investigators to predict the isotopic techniques, an enormous number of ‘features’ composition of food grown in a particular (fragments of molecules, which are eluted from region. This gives the forensic scientist a the chromatographic system at a characteristic powerful tool to check whether a geographical time) are generated per analysis. Similarly, origin claim is correct. spectroscopic techniques (where the whole Stable isotope ratios of carbon determined spectrum is considered) also generate massive by IRMS can discriminate between plants amounts of data. Only the combination of that use C4 carbon fixation rather than the data processing by advanced mathematical C3 photosynthetic pathway. This plays an algorithms and subsequent multivariate important role in determining whether sugar statistics allows the recognition of patterns or sugar syrups produced by a C4 plant that are useful for discriminating between (maize and sugar cane) has been added to, genuine and adulterated products. Among the for example, wine must or fruit juice, without FOOD AND DRINK

CASE STUDY

STOPPING FOOD FRAUD

SUE DAVIES, Chief Policy Adviser, Which?

n 2013, the discovery of widespread adul- KEEPING ONE STEP AHEAD OF teration of beef products with horsemeat outraged consumers and brought food fraud FRAUDSTERS ACROSS COMPLEX GLOBAL into the spotlight. It prompted a govern- SUPPLY CHAINS IS A CHALLENGE. ment-commissioned review of the integrity of food Isupply chains by Professor Chris Elliott of Queen’s TACKLING IT DEMANDS EFFECTIVE University Belfast. His recommendations1 for a INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, ECONOMIC ‘consumer first, zero tolerance’ approach were accepted and led to a number of changes, including ANALYSIS AND REGULAR AUDITING AND the creation of a new National Food Crime Unit TESTING BY FOOD COMPANIES AND within the Food Standards Agency (FSA). Estimating the true scale of food fraud is one PUBLIC AUTHORITIES. of the first tasks of the new unit. It is already clear that substituting cheaper ingredients can be lucrative. In some cases it can also lead to safety concerns, as seen with potentially carcinogenic found that 9 of 76 samples were adulterated, 129 Sudan I dyes added to chilli powder and, more and 6 of these were more than 50% sheep’s recently, the substitution of ground almonds with cheese. Further work with Professor Elliott in peanuts has caused allergy risk. Fraud also causes August 2015 found that 25% of 74 dried oregano wider consumer harm: causing them to pay for samples analysed containing cheaper leaves such something of poorer quality than they expected, as olive and myrtle. While the analysis for meat and also potentially leading to inadvertent substitution was relatively routine, Elliott’s team consumption of ingredients that people avoid for developed an innovative approach using both religious or other cultural reasons. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) Keeping one step ahead of fraudsters across and liquid chromatography high-resolution mass complex global supply chains is a challenge. spectrometry (LC-HRMS) to screen and confirm Tackling it demands effective intelligence gathering, oregano adulteration. economic analysis and regular auditing and Stopping food fraud has to remain a priority, testing by food companies and public authorities. with effective, preventative action from both the Ensuring analytical availability and capability is food industry and government. Which? consumer a crucial aspect of this. As a result of the Elliott research has shown that failing to act would report, a network of centres of excellence is now have a long-term negative impact on consumer being established. confidence; and that consumers expect public Over the past two years, testing by Which? authorities to ensure their food is what it says it as part of its Stop Food Fraud campaign has is. A September 2014 survey found that over half found problems with a spectrum of products. (55%) of people were worried that a food fraud The results have been shared with the FSA incident would happen again. A quarter (23%) for investigation. In April 2014, 40% of 60 lamb said that in the past 12 months they had changed take-aways tested were found to be adulterated the type of meat products they bought because with other meats, mainly chicken and beef. they were worried about food fraud. In September 2014, we discovered haddock With local authority resources under strain and substituted with cheaper whiting in 5 out of food standards work in decline in many parts of 15 Glasgow fish and chip shops. Goat’s cheese the country, the FSA and its new National Food tested by Professor Elliott in October 2014 Crime Unit will have a crucial role to play. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

EXPLOITING THE MICROBIOME

PAUL BRERETON, Head of Agri-food Research, Fera Science Ltd.

he microbiome is the combined between the micro-floral markers, and how genetic material of all the micro- the characteristic signatures of these markers organisms that typically inhabit a vary from one place to another. Large numbers particular environment. Although of data points are needed to understand the usually associated with studies of the human potential variability of markers within particular Tgut, understanding the nature of the microbi- target regions; this requires resource-intensive ome of animals, plants, and their environments production, analysis and storage of these data, is a potentially new and powerful method for limiting the application of the technique. assessing where items originate and where they Fera (formerly the Food and Environment have been. Research Agency) has developed a method Many geological, biological, and environmental that uses the latest NGS technology to facilitate markers (such as the composition of chemical rapid and wide-ranging interrogation of microbial elements, or the shape of a sand grain – see genomes. Funded by the Department for Chapter 10, case study on p116) are already Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and used to match items with a particular point of the Food Standards Agency, Fera has undertaken 130 origin. But the microbiome has been under- a pilot study of the microbiome concept that utilised in forensics. aims to confirm the geographical origin of Given the increased regulatory emphasis on oysters from beds around the UK coastline1. accurate labelling of a food’s geographical origin, We focused on genomic sequence data from there is a need for systems that accurately assess a particular bacterial gene that is commonly used provenance. One approach exploits micro-floral to differentiate bacterial species. Our hypothesis signatures – the genetic profile of all the algae, was that it could also be used to differentiate fungi and bacteria present in a sample. These samples of Pacific oysters, according to their signatures could be used to identify where a production site and related conditions such as sample was originally produced, but also link how they were grown and the origin of the samples to particular environments where they spat (‘larvae’) that the oysters grew from. 110 have been, a crucial aspect for forensic analysis. oysters were collected directly from 11 major Until recently, it has been difficult to measure production sites around the UK. Bacterial gene and interpret the microbiome due to the sequences were generated by sequencing oyster diversity of micro-floral populations, and the gill tissue. After analysing the sequence data using limitations of the tools used to measure them. bioinformatics techniques, differences in bacterial But the advent of Next Generation Sequencing communities between locations and substrate (NGS) has provided a step change in analysis were identified using statistical procedures. that now permits rapid interrogation of the We found strong links between the RNA/DNA sequences that make up the microbiome and the oysters’ geographical genome; as such, it offers for the first time the origin; and also between the microbiome and potential for forensic analysis to exploit the the oysters’ substrate (e.g. whether they were microbiome. grown on trestles or on the sea bed). The Attributing a geographical origin to a sample length of time that oysters had been grown at (“Where does it come from?”) is usually more the sampling location was also weakly linked to challenging than confirming a match between an the composition of their microbial community, unknown sample and a reference control (“Is it although this correlation was less strong than from here?”). To answer the former question, with the sampling location itself, indicating that investigators need to understand the relationship the oyster microbiome is influenced most FOOD AND DRINK

declaration. In combination with a specialised NMR technique called site-specific natural isotope fractionation (SNIF), even the addition of beet sugar (a C3 plant) to wine must (chaptalisation) can be detected. INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES Traceability is a key element in ascertaining the IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO safety of the food chain, but it is also an important tool to ensure its integrity. MEASURE AND INTERPRET Anti-counterfeiting technologies play an THE MICROBIOME DUE TO important role in ensuring product safety, as well as authenticity, although the technology only allows THE DIVERSITY OF MICRO- track-and-trace of the package and not the package FLORAL POPULATIONS, AND content. Authentication packaging technology offers many levels of varying sophistication either THE LIMITATIONS OF THE using overt technology (holograms, security TOOLS USED TO MEASURE threads, watermarks, colour shifting ink) or covert technology (UV ink, fluorescence fibres added to THEM AGAIN. packaging paper, biological or chemical tags such as DNA printing inks). Synthetic and unique DNA can be incorporated in packaging material for strongly by the water in the locality. Further authentication of genuine products that encodes work is assessing the impact of seasonality product-specific information, which are impossible 131 on the oyster microbiome in the different to forge. production sites, in order to ensure that the Hyperspectral imaging, which marries microbiome markers are robust and not spectroscopy to image analysis for providing affected by the season in which the samples spectral, as well as spatial information, is a powerful are taken. tool that can be used for rapid non-destructive quality and authenticity assessment of food, This approach has many potential particularly meat and spices. applications in broader areas, such as: Next-generation sequencing (NGS), at least • Forensics: being able to link an item/person theoretically, makes it possible to identify all species to a particular location present in a food product. The technique holds • Food waste (spoilage): using analysis of great promise for identifying pathogens isolated the microbiome to better understand and from clinical material and food to support trace- extend shelf life back investigations to identify the source of an • Microbial epidemiology: using micro-floral outbreak (see case study p130). NGS has the signatures (including those from non- potential to advance food authenticity testing, but pathogenic sources) to trace pathogen requires further refinement and development, outbreaks particularly related to data analysis (bioinformatics), • Food authenticity: using a food’s microbiome before finding its way into routine laboratory use. as an authenticity marker or specification Competent authorities and policymakers in the EU must have access to up-to-date knowledge related to fraud detection and prevention technologies, as well as the relevant databases, to safeguard the integrity of the food chain. Responding to this need, the JRC is putting in place dedicated research infrastructures to provide the European Commission and EU Member States with the necessary knowledge to fight food fraud. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CHAPTER 12

COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS AND METHODS TO TEST THEM

HARPARKASH KAUR, Pharmaceutical counterfeiting is a global threat that can kill patients, contributes to the London School of rise of drug resistance, and increases citizens’ mistrust of health systems. To monitor drug Hygiene and quality, governments and health programs must invest in regulations, technologies, and Tropical Medicine infrastructure, including anti-counterfeiting measures, specialised analytical facilities run by experienced staff, and portable technologies for screening medicines in the field.

he United Nations Office on source or identity. (A falsified drug could signal Drugs and Crime has identified a potentially counterfeit product, which does pharmaceutical counterfeiting as not comply with intellectual property rights a global threat1. Although health or may infringe trademark law)5. Substandard professionals assume that they are prescribing drugs are produced with inadequate attention Tgood-quality medications, and patients to good manufacturing practices and may believe that these medications will cure them, have contents or dissolution times that are counterfeit drugs are often revealed only after a outside accepted limits, due to poor quality patient fails to recover2. control6. Degraded formulations may result The medicines supply is carefully monitored from exposure of good-quality medicines to 132 in the UK, but this is not the case in resource- light, heat, and humidity. It can be difficult to constrained countries, where a range of distinguish degraded medicines from those factors are contributing to pharmaceutical that left the factory as substandard, but the counterfeiting. These include: lack of legislation; distinction is important because the causes and weak or absent regulatory authorities; demand remedies will be different. exceeding supply; the high price of ‘innovator The WHO’s International Medical Products drugs’ (i.e. brand-name drugs); the difficulty Anti-Counterfeiting Taskforce (IMPACT) in tracking transactions involving many estimates that up to 25% of the total intermediaries; and the lack of laboratories or medicine supply in less-developed countries field-tests to assess the quality of drugs. is counterfeit7. Obtaining exact figures is very Poor-quality medicines are divided into four difficult, however, as the very nature of this main classes: counterfeit, falsified, substandard trade means that it attempts to operate below or degraded. But there are no universally- the regulatory radar, and many suspect drugs accepted definitions of these categories3. The remain undetected. The prevalence of poor World Health Organization (WHO) defines quality drugs can only be known after a formal spurious/falsely-labelled/falsified/counterfeit drug quality survey has been performed, and (SFFC) drugs as follows4: objective evidence of the quality of drugs “A counterfeit medicine is one which is available from most countries is lacking. deliberately and fraudulently mislabelled Alarmingly, if a medicine contains too few with respect to identity and/or source. active pharmaceutical ingredient (APIs) to Counterfeiting can apply to both branded and kill all the pathogens in a patient’s body, it generic products and counterfeit products may encourages the emergence of drug resistant include products with the correct ingredients strains. And because the poor are often limited or with the wrong ingredients, without active to buying not just the cheapest product, but ingredients, with insufficient active ingredient or also the smallest pack size, that also makes it with fake packaging” more likely that they receive inadequate doses Falsified (fake) medicines do not contain the of an active ingredient, further accelerating stated active pharmaceutical ingredient (SAPI) drug resistance. Poor quality medicines may and may carry false representation of their also lead to distrust in the healthcare system COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS AND METHODS TO TEST THEM

and threaten decades of progress in public THE SHEER VOLUME OF ANTIBIOTICS health. It is simply unacceptable that the quality of drugs is poor or uncertain for the SOLD DAILY AND THEIR RELATIVELY most disadvantaged people, who have the LOW PRODUCTION COST MAKES THEM least resources and are attracted by the lower prices of counterfeit drugs. A VULNERABLE GROUP OF DRUGS FOR TARGETING BY COUNTERFEITERS ANTI-COUNTERFEITING TECHNOLOGIES Several countries have recently ratified legislation to combat the sales of falsified medicines. The did not differentiate between substandard United States passed the drug quality and and counterfeit medicines13. Surveys require security act8, while China and India have brought epidemiological knowledge, and an adequate in legislation to use bar codes and adopt track- sample size from as wide a range of outlets as and-trace systems to check that quality-assured possible, to provide a reliable estimate of the medications reach patients. Tagging technologies frequency of poor quality drugs. include radio-frequency identification or Reliable surveys are essential to justify and RFID9, Microtags10, NanoEncryption™ 11 and promote the political action that would create AuthentiTrack® 12, which allow manufacturers the mechanisms needed to assure drug quality14. and distributors to track medicines through the supply chain. Microtags are micrometer- METHODS TO TEST MEDICINES sized particles uniquely encoded with multiple 1. Visual and physical inspection levels of security information within a space of The first step in determining the quality of a 50–110 micrometers (the size of a speck of medicine is to look for the key features of any 133 dust). The tags are made of inert materials, are high-quality medicine. The package should safe for human consumption and will not alter include a list of active ingredients, the name and the potency of the medicine. The information address of the manufacturer, storage conditions, they carry can be decoded with laser pens, batch or lot number, dates of manufacture and optical scanners or other scanning technologies expiry, and directions for use. An instruction provided by the Microtag maker. leaflet (in the appropriate language and without Global alarm about the emergence of any spelling errors) should be enclosed with antibiotic-resistant ‘superbugs’ is prompting wider the tablets. The tablets themselves should use of these tagging technologies. In developing match the authentic product in their shape, countries, generic antibiotics can be obtained size, and colour. If the solid dose formulation is without a prescription and little is known about crumbling, chipped or cracked, it may indicate their quality. Misuse of antibiotics – through a substandard or degraded medicine. However, unnecessary over-prescribing and sub-optimal in my experience it can be difficult to persuade dosing resulting from substandard antibiotics – manufactures to supply genuine product for engenders the development of resistance. The comparison. Pharmaceutical manufacturers sheer volume of antibiotics sold daily, and their employ overt anti-counterfeiting strategies relatively low production cost, makes them a such as visible holograms, as well as invisible vulnerable target for counterfeiters, illegitimate covert features to mark the authenticity of internet pharmacies, and drug manufacturers their products. Sadly, holograms can also be who use poor manufacturing practices. counterfeited, as was the case for packages Antimalarial drugs are another vulnerable of antimalarial artesunate in South East Asia target. Considerable technical, financial and that claimed to be manufactured by Guilin human resources are required to inspect, Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd15. analyse and police the drug supply, all of which are lacking in most malaria-endemic countries. 2. Laboratory tests A systematic review of the literature reported A well-equipped medicines quality control that few surveys of antimalarial medicines used laboratory (MQCL) is a crucial component robust methodology, and that the majority of any drug quality assurance system. It should be equipped with a range of analytical lower bioavailability. Indeed, an epidemic equipment (see below), as well as quality- of malaria on the Afghan-Pakistan border assured reference standards, all of which is was confirmed to result from the poor cost intensive. An MQCL also requires staff bioavailability of locally-procured substandard with a high level of technical expertise and antimalarial drugs18. These tests require a experience of method development. sophisticated dissolution apparatus, as well as High-performance liquid analytical equipment (HPLC with UV-PDA) chromatography (HPLC) is an analytical and reference standards, which are expensive technique used to separate specific and may be difficult to obtain. Furthermore, compounds, and then identify and quantify analysts need to have access to the dissolution them based on how long they take to separate, information that is expected for each and their spectrophotometric properties. medication, and the tests are both labour- and HPLC can be coupled to various detectors, cost-intensive. but the ultraviolet photodiode array (UV- Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) PDA) is regarded as the ‘gold standard’ for spectroscopy is a powerful tool that allows drug quality analysis because it offers accuracy, analysts to determine the structures and specificity and precision in quantifying the relative concentrations of molecules in amount of APIs present. It is, however, relatively a sample without active pharmaceutical expensive and requires greater expertise to reference standards. For example, NMR operate, which demands extensive training and analysis of the hydrogen and phosphorous (1H technological support. and 31P) atoms in the anti-leishmanial drug HPLC can also be coupled to a mass miltefosine helped to prove that a generic spectrometer (LC-MS). Although this gives version procured from Bangladesh did not 19 134 analysts abundant chemical information, it contain the SAPI . also relies on tedious, time-consuming sample preparation, and typically requires a reference 3. Screening techniques standard to determine API levels. Thin layer chromatography (TLC) is an However, more recent MS technologies inexpensive, simple, flexible and effective avoid sample preparation and give almost method for verifying the identity of a instantaneous results. Direct analysis in real formulation. It requires a variety of chemical time (DART) MS allows the analyst to hold a reagents and plates, reference standards of tablet in front of a mass spectrometer and get the SAPIs, and some basic training for the information about its composition in seconds16, analyst. For example, two TLC-based tests can while desorption electrospray ionization check the quality (falsified or authentic) of the (DESI) MS involves spraying a solvent at the most effective antimalarial drugs, artemisinin tablet to free APIs for analysis17. combination therapies (ACTs), in the absence Dissolution testing offers a valuable of a MQCL20. prediction of the in vivo bioavailability and Many developing countries do not have bioequivalence of tablets and capsules, by the technical, financial, or human resources measuring the amount of drug released required to inspect and police the drug into a dissolution media (liquid) over time. supply7. Thus simple and affordable field The presence of incorrect excipients, as methods provide a practical means of rapidly well as poor manufacturing processes, may monitoring drug quality. Portable labs – in contribute to poor dissolution resulting in particular the Minilab®, a ready-to-use TLC

CONVENIENCE SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN SOUTH EAST ASIA IN 2000/1 AND 2002/3 SUGGESTED THAT 38% AND 53% OF THE ARTESUNATE BLISTER PACKS OBTAINED FROM PHARMACIES AND SHOPS WERE COUNTERFEIT. COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS AND METHODS TO TEST THEM

kit from the German Pharma Health Fund A RECENT META-ANALYSIS REPORTED (GPHF)21 – provides a versatile means for initial screening of many drug formulations, THAT 35% OF ANTIMALARIAL DRUG including antimicrobials, antimalarials, and SAMPLES FROM 21 SUB-SAHARAN antiretrovirals. Currently 713 GPHF-Minilab units are used globally across 92 countries to AFRICAN COUNTRIES, FAILED fight the counterfeit drug trade. CHEMICAL CONTENT ANALYSIS. The Tanzanian Food and Drugs Authority pilot-tested the Minilab® and found it to be relatively inexpensive and rapid, but that it detected only grossly substandard or wrong- affecting the quality of the spectrum. The drug samples. Ultimately, the Minilab® should TruScan® hand-held Raman device has be used in conjunction with robust laboratory- successfully detected some counterfeits in based testing22. This approach was recently the field, but it has not been useful to detect used to assess the quality of two brands of substandard medicines24. antibiotics, amoxicillin and co-trimoxazole, Unlike Raman spectroscopy, infrared (IR) manufactured in six countries and purchased spectroscopy has a larger depth penetration into in Ghana, Nigeria and Nigeria. All of the the sample surface. Near-infrared spectroscopy samples of amoxicillin complied with United (NIR) can reveal whether excipients are not States Pharmacopeia (USP) tolerance limits for in the correct proportions, suggesting that the dissolution testing, but 60% of co-trimoxazole medicine is counterfeit, but it cannot detect tablets did not. But there was some disparity substandard medicines25. NIR is also relatively in the Minilab® results, highlighting that this simple to miniaturise: for example, the SCiO portable laboratory should not be relied upon NIR device, at present under validation, is a 135 to make regulatory decisions23. smart-phone-sized instrument that promises to be highly effective at checking the quality 4. Portable instruments of medications in the absence of a MQCL26. Hand-held devices based on spectroscopic Meanwhile, the US Food and Drug Administration methods are now being investigated as (FDA) has recently started using its Counterfeit screening tools that can rapidly detect poor- Detection Device CD-3 to screen tablets, quality drugs throughout the supply chain packaging and even documents at ports of entry (see case study p138). Non-destructive or in remote areas, although further development spectroscopic techniques such as Raman is still needed27. spectroscopy and near infrared (NIR) are currently being evaluated for their ability QUALITY OF ANTIMALARIAL DRUGS to scan drug samples through the blister IN MALARIA-ENDEMIC COUNTRIES pack, without using the toxic chemicals A recent meta-analysis reported that 35% of or flammable solvents typically found in a antimalarial drug samples from 21 Sub-Saharan MQCL. Both techniques rely on comparing African countries, failed chemical content characteristic spectral ‘fingerprint’ of a analysis28. The underlying research predominantly suspect medicine with a genuine sample. This used the ‘convenience’ sampling approach, where necessitates access to a database of spectra, research teams purchased medicines from drug created by investigators, for every brand of sellers who were easily-accessible, or who were medications from every manufacturer (see already thought to sell poor-quality medicines. case study, p140). Results based on this low-cost sampling One potential drawback of using Raman approach can be useful in drawing attention to spectroscopy is that only the sample surface is a potential problem. For example, convenience probed, so if the SAPI is not evenly distributed surveys conducted in South East Asia in 2000/1 throughout the entire tablet, the resulting and 2002/3 suggested that 38% and 53% of content information may be inaccurate. the artesunate blister packs obtained from Additionally, many pharmaceutical preparations pharmacies and shops were counterfeit29. contain highly fluorescent excipients, thus But the convenience approach may not be FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

Table 1: Comparative strengths and weaknesses of the three sampling approaches used

SAMPLING ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES APPROACH

CONVENIENCE • Rapid • Lack of defined sampling frame of standardised approach • Low cost • Uncertainty in whether sampling is representative and therefore reliability of the estimates of drug quality obtained • Generalisability of findings may be weak • Results may be difficult to replicate

MYSTERY • Use of defined sampling frame • Sample will only be as comprehensive and/or CLIENTS representative as the sampling frame that was • Can yield representative sample from all types of used outlets and/or brands • Need to authenticate and update sampling frame • Low risk of sampling bias in samples collected, as increases time and cost of survey outlets are unaware of survey • Information on sources of poor quality drugs • Reliability and generalisability of results should be is limited to brand, batch and country of strong manufacture as stated on packaging • Results can be replicated 136 OVERT • Use of defined sampling frame • Sample will only be as comprehensive and/or representative as the sampling frame that was • Can yield representative sample from all types of used outlets and/or brands • Need to authenticate and update sampling frame • Results can be replicated increases time and cost of survey • Can collect additional information at minimal • Possible risk of sampling bias in samples collected, additional cost to mystery approach if some outlets refuse to be sampled or are aware of which samples might be poor quality and differentially withhold these • Reliability and generalisability of results may be compromised if sampling bias occurs

representative of the places where patients remaining parasites, in the hope that resistance actually buy their medicines, and it may also be will be slowed enough to allow for the biased: for example, if the collector consciously development of a pipeline of efficacious drugs. or subconsciously set out to procure or not Once ACTs had been enforced in malaria- procure poor-quality formulations (see Table 1)30. endemic countries, it was believed that they In 2006, the WHO banned malaria would be in danger of being counterfeited. medicines that contain just one active Hence, the Artemisinin-based Combination ingredient (such as artesunate), in favour of Therapy Consortium Drug Quality programme artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) that purchased over 10,000 artemisinin-containing contain more than one active ingredient. This antimalarials (ACAs) in 6 malaria endemic treats the disease more rapidly: the artemisinin countries, from private sector retail outlets component kills the majority of the parasites such as pharmacies and drug shops, following at the start of the treatment, while the more representative sampling approaches31. Outlets slowly-eliminated partner drug clears the were selected at random in most countries COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS AND METHODS TO TEST THEM

from lists obtained from the relevant government’s ministry of health; whereas WE NEED GREATER INVESTMENT in other countries we initially conducted a IN DEVELOPING AND VALIDATING pilot study by collecting samples using the PORTABLE TECHNOLOGIES THAT ‘convenience’ approach to gain perspective on the type of outlets and brands of ACAs CAN BE USED IN THE FIELD. available. Medicine samples were subsequently purchased using one of two approaches. as falsified when either one of the SAPIs was Through the ‘mystery client’ approach, the not present. All results were compiled into person purchasing the medicines posed as a a report and disseminated to the relevant malaria patient or their relative; through ‘overt ministries of health before being submitted as a sample collection’, vendors were informed manuscript to peer reviewed journals. that we were going to analyse the quality of In these investigations of ACAs, we found no the medicines they sold, and samples were evidence of falsified medicines in 4,928 samples purchased once they consented. This allowed (over 50 brands) from Cambodia, Ghana, us to interview the vendor to obtain data Rwanda and Tanzania. Of the 5,151 samples on the availability and supply of antimalarials, that were collected in Bioko Island (Equatorial their storage conditions, and the training of Guinea) and Nigeria (over 142 brands), 1.9% providers. were falsified i.e. they contained neither of The collected samples were analysed in the SAPIs. Instead, they contained compounds three different laboratories in the UK and the including chlorzoxazone (a muscle relaxant), 137 US. First, they were sent to the London School ciprofloxacin (an antibiotic) or acetaminophen of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), (paracetamol, a commonly used painkiller). where they were logged and their packaging The falsified medicines found in this research and blister packs scanned. Each tablet was are far fewer than the 35% fakes suggested in weighed and its dimensions recorded on the previous reports. However, it is worth noting database. Each sample was analysed using that substandard drugs were found in all the HPLC UV-PDA to measure the amount countries that we studied, with the most in of APIs, which was then expressed as the Cambodia (31.3%), Ghana (37%) and Tanzania percentage of the SAPIs and used to classify (12%); others were less than 8%. the quality of the sample. Duplicate samples The key strengths of this investigation are from each packet of tablets analysed at LSHTM that representative sampling approaches were were sent to the US Centers for Disease used to purchase a sizeable number of samples; Control and Prevention in Atlanta, where a these were analysed in three independent random 10% were analysed for confirmatory laboratories, using two different detection HPLC-PDA results. A duplicate set was also methods (HPLC with UV-PDA and MS)30. sent to the Georgia Institute of Technology, Representative methods to sample Atlanta, for ambient MS analyses to verify the medicines are important for generating pharmaceutical ingredients present and identify reliable estimates of the prevalence of poor any unstated compounds. Samples were quality drugs in a given country. However, this classified as ‘acceptable quality’ if the SAPIs type of study is cost intensive, both for the were present at between 85% and 115% of purchase and analysis of drugs. It is important the SAPI quantity. Medicines outside this range, to establish affordable systems that sample for either or both of the partner compounds, medicines in a representative way, and develop were classified as substandard. These robust laboratory techniques to analyse them substandard medicines were also examined to on a regular basis. This will enable for the detect the presence of degradation products, accurate quantification and tracking of the caused by poor storage conditions such as scale of poor-quality medicines that threaten heat and humidity. Medicines were regarded the treatment of this life threatening disease. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

OPERATION PANGEA

GIFT MINTA, Senior Criminal Intelligence Analyst, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency

peration Pangea is an crimes. The MHRA consequently launched the International Internet Week of UK Internet Day of Action (IDA Operation Action (IIWA) to tackle the Bali) in April 2006, to investigate internet online sale of illicit and counterfeit sites offering illegal medicines, and followed medicines, and highlighting the dangers of that with Operation Latvia in 2007. Realising Obuying medicines online. Coordinated by that the fight against the online sale of illicit Interpol, the annual operation brings together and counterfeit medicines required a global customs, health regulators, national police and effort; this approach was introduced to some the pharmaceutical industry from countries European member states via Interpol in 2008. around the world. Activities target the three The MHRA Enforcement Group now principal components used by illegal websites uses several different strategies to combat operators to conduct their trade: internet the activities of criminals responsible for the service providers (ISP), payment systems, illegal sale and supply of medicines online. and delivery services (including ports). The This includes collaboration with the UK’s operation has gained significant momentum Border Force to intercept medicines and 138 since its launch in 2008, growing from 10 medical devices at ports, for example, and uses participating countries to 115 countries in intelligence analysis to adapt to the criminals’ 2015. Operation Pangea VIII (9–16 June 2015) changing tactics. resulted in the record UK seizure of 6.2 million In recognition of the growing threat doses of falsified, counterfeit and unlicensed from cyber related criminality, the MHRA medicines, with a total value of £15.8 million. has developed a specialist role of Internet This marks an increase of 97% on the preceding Infrastructure Investigator, whose activities has year’s operation. significantly reduced the number of websites on Operation Pangea traces its origins back to the UK domain tree that illegally sell medicines. a threat assessment conducted by the MHRA This disruption-based approach has forced Enforcement Group that revealed a disturbing criminals to relocate their businesses outside increase in internet-facilitated medicines UK jurisdiction, and transfer their wares from crime between 2000 and 2005. At that time, manufacturers to the UK public – a tactic approximately 85% of the total referrals to the known as drop shipping. Nevertheless, thanks Enforcement Group were internet-facilitated to effective profiling through intelligence analysis, the MHRA has helped to increase the volume of seizures of unlicensed, falsified and OPERATION PANGEA counterfeit medicines and devices. VIII RESULTED IN THE The MHRA Enforcement Group also works with forensic science providers to combat RECORD UK SEIZURE OF pharmaceutical crime. By testing seized 6.2 MILLION DOSES OF medicines using various chromatographic and spectroscopic analytical techniques, reports and FALSIFIED, COUNTERFEIT witness statements are generated to support AND UNLICENSED investigations and prosecutions. Scientists can be called as expert witnesses, or help with MEDICINES, WITH A TOTAL court proceedings by corroborating scientific VALUE OF £15.8 MILLION findings and confirming criminality. And many of these techniques are now being COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS AND METHODS TO TEST THEM

CONCLUSION Producing counterfeit drugs is an easy endeavour, requiring only a tablet press, a printer, commonly-found household materials and a malevolent mentality. In August 2015, the US FDA approved for the first time a drug made using 3D-printing technology32. This technology is a potential danger in the hands used in the field. Raman and near infra-red of counterfeiters. Enormous effort is spent spectroscopy have helped to the increase in determining the most efficacious drug for the volume of illicit medicine seizures treating a disease, and supporting its use in since they were first used at the Coventry nationwide programs. It is essential that the International Hub in Operation Pangea IV. quality of these drugs is monitored to maintain When Raman equipment was used at the good quality, not least to avoid the development Heathrow Worldwide Distribution Centre of drug resistance caused by falsified and (HWDC) in Operation Pangea VIII, it substandard medicines. resulted in the interception of approximately We need greater investment in developing 20,000 doses of unlabelled or unmarked and validating portable technologies that can be tablets, which contained medicinal and used in the field, to ensure good-quality drugs controlled substances indicated for weight reach the patient. The techniques mentioned in loss, anxiety and hormone therapy. this article can be used to determine the quality It is clear that Operation Pangea has been of drugs, but are not available in the majority of a significant success story, and demonstrates resource-constrained countries. Hence, there are the importance of working in partnership, few data to inform policy or interventions. 139 evidenced by the high volume of seizures We need more research funding to uncover during the weeks of activities at the ports. the extent of the counterfeiting problem; to But criminals continue to evolve their evaluate appropriate methods for drug-quality methods: recent seizures of unlicensed assessment; and to estimate the impact of poor- medicines by the MHRA Enforcement quality drugs used to treat various diseases. Group indicate that consignments were In addition, better collaboration between not imported via the known ports of entry academic researchers, the Pharmaceutical and modes of transport. It is assumed industry, medicine regulatory authorities and that criminals involved in this illicit trade law enforcement agencies will greatly help to have turned to alternative fast parcel and ensure that the vulnerable are protected from courier companies to avoid detection, which poor-quality medicines. Enhanced regulation emphasises the importance of effective and quality assurance of genuine manufacturers working relationships with the industry and would also help reduce the problems of Border Force. substandard and falsified medicines. Sensitive and specialised chemical techniques (HPLC, dissolution testing, LC-MS, NMR and MS), operated by experienced staff, are needed in bio-analytical laboratories in disease-endemic countries, so that they can be utilised relatively quickly determine the quality of drugs to treat fatal diseases. Both national and international programs must take steps to ensure that they use quality- assured drugs in their effort to eliminate diseases such as malaria and visceral leishmaniasis. As more people travel around the world, there is an urgent need to ensure that medicines available globally are of good quality. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

THE COUNTERFEITING OF HEALTHCARE PRODUCTS

DAVID A TAINSH, Chief Product Quality Officer,NISHA MISTRY, Senior Investigator (R&D), GlaxoSmithKline

he counterfeiting of healthcare CASE STUDY 1 products represents an Raman microscopy highlights that even unacceptable threat to counterfeits are not the same patients’ welfare. There is In Raman spectroscopy, a monochromatic laser no such thing as a ‘good’ counterfeit. A beam is shone onto (or through) a sample, Tcombination of inappropriate ingredients and the resulting scattered light is analysed for and lack of adherence to strict conditions changes in wavelength. This leads to a spectral of quality assurance, testing and hygiene in ‘molecular fingerprint’, highly sensitive to the manufacturing mean they are never safe to structure and crystalline form of the material use. As technology improves, counterfeit under investigation. With Raman microscopy, it packaging becomes increasingly sophisticated is possible to collect Raman spectra from single and more difficult to detect. Patients buying points on a sample as well as spectral maps from 140 or being given counterfeit medicines are larger areas. unlikely to know that what they have is not In Figure 1, Raman microscopy has been used in genuine and could be harmful. This risk is a fast, non-contact, non-destructive way to generate particularly high when obtaining medicines mean fingerprints of a number of tablet samples from unauthorised websites. purporting to be the same as the authentic tablet. The prevention and detection of Not only do the fingerprints of the other tablets counterfeits is primarily a matter for demonstrate that all the samples are counterfeit national governments worldwide, but the – the counterfeits themselves appear to belong to pharmaceutical industry has an important four different types. role to play in helping to minimise the counterfeiting of its products. Forensic CASE STUDY 2 techniques, for example, can differentiate Fourier Transform-Infra Red Spectroscopy genuine from counterfeit products. (FT-IR) and Liquid Chromatography-Mass Medicinal tablets consist of the drug plus Spectroscopy (LC-MS) determine the active other ingredients. These other ingredients drugs in the counterfeit reflect how they are manufactured, and In IR spectroscopy, a beam of infra-red light how they are designed to dissolve when is passed through a sample. The transmitted swallowed. Counterfeit medicines may light from the sample shows how much contain more or less of the originator drug, a energy is absorbed at each wavelength, and different drug or no drug at all, together with this absorption gives information about the any combination of other ingredients. The molecular structure of the sample. It can provide possibilities are endless – but detectable. characteristic fingerprint spectra of a particular In any investigation, a number of molecule in minutes, so the technique can be techniques are used in combination to prove used to determine chemical identity. or disprove authenticity. These two case In Figure 2, the FT-IR spectrum of a suspect studies illustrate the power of individual headache powder highlights that there are techniques to generate essential clues in the differences relative to the authentic product. form of unique analytical fingerprints. In Figure 3, comparison of the counterfeit product spectrum with the spectra of authentic COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS AND METHODS TO TEST THEM

Figure 1: Comparison of mean Raman spectra for an authentic tablet and 4 counterfeit tablets

1,200 AuthenticGenu ine

07100071 1,000 1 800

600 2 Intensity (cnt) active ingredients – paracetamol, aspirin and 400 caffeine – reveal that aspirin is not present, 200 3 10150 because characteristic peaks are missing in the 0 counterfeit spectrum. 4 -200 LC-MS combines the ability of high- 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 performance liquid chromatography to separate Raman Shift (cm-1) components of a mixture, with the ability of mass spectrometry to provide information about the mass of individual molecules. Using a high- Figure 2: FT-IR spectra shows that a suspect headache powder resolution mass spectrometer with accurate does not match an authentic product mass measurement enables investigators to determine a specific molecular formula for each component of a separated mixture. 141 In this example, investigators found that aspirin (or acetylsalicylic acid) had been replaced by salicylic acid, a different active ingredient that is only used in products for the treatment of skin conditions such as verrucae. Other industries – particularly those in the consumer products sector – apply similar forensic analysis and investigative techniques to determine product authenticity and to differentiate between counterfeit and genuine products. For example, 4000.0 3600 3200 2800 2400 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 650.0 the food industry applies many of the same techniques used in pharmaceutical investigations to confirm authenticity of food products, including the determination of whether products have Figure 3: FT-IR comparison shows that the suspect powder been contaminated maliciously or inadvertently contains paracetamol and caffeine, but no aspirin (see Chapter 11). The cosmetic industry applies comparable tools to differentiate genuine products from counterfeit cosmetics in the same way. Ultimately, these are specialist means of detection, but significant advances in technology Aspirin reference and the widespread availability of portable instruments mean that it is becoming much easier to deploy them in mobile laboratories, or even through the use of hand-held devices, so that real- time determinations can be made in the field.

4000.0 3600 3200 2800 2400 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 650.0 FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CHAPTER 13 CONSUMER PRODUCTS

MELISSA DRING, Over the past 15 years, product counterfeiting has become one of the most prolific areas ROBYN ELLISON of economic crime, enabled by the rapid growth of the internet. Investment in forensic Director of Policy, analysis techniques and capability, as well as advanced anti-counterfeiting measures, is es- and Policy Officer, sential to tackle this criminal threat – but it could also stimulate significant growth within Chartered Trading genuine markets. Standards Institute

he production and sale of internet to peddle their fakes. In fact, the OECD counterfeit consumer goods accurately predicted that the Internet would: damages both producers and • Make it easier for counterfeiters to conceal consumers. It deprives our their true identities and lower the risk of creators, inventors, artists and designers of detection Ttheir just rewards; and means that consumers • Enable counterfeiters to establish enticing sales spend money on fraudulent, sub-standard goods, sites and then quickly take them down or move while exposing themselves to the potential to markets where enforcement is perceived to harm caused by a disregard for safety standards be weaker in counterfeit products. It also denies the • Provide opportunities for criminals to develop government much needed tax revenue to fund vast numbers of illicit e-commerce sites and essential public services. listings and make it very difficult to find and 142 In addition, Interpol and Europol have outlined take action against them a clear connection between the trafficking of • Allow sellers to reach a huge global audience at counterfeit goods and other types of organised low cost, 24 hours a day crime1, with the profits from counterfeit products • Make software and images widely available to being channelled into areas such as the trafficking make it easy for counterfeiters to create ‘clone’ of drugs and people, and related financial crimes websites, which look identical to legitimate such as money laundering and corruption. online stores and sales platforms. Over the past 15 years, product counterfeiting has become one of the most prolific areas The OECD’s forecasts have largely proved to of economic crime. As far back as 2009, the be true. Online shopping has snowballed, and Organisation for Economic Co-operation the opportunity to buy and sell almost every and Development (OECD) reported that conceivable type of product has burgeoned global trade in fake goods was as high as $250 beyond anticipation. In the UK alone, it is billion2. This amount was described as being predicted that online retail sales will reach over larger than the national GDPs of approximately £52 billion in 2015 (ref. 3). This is over 15% of 150 economies. However, despite efforts by all retail sales made in the UK and means that, on organisations such as the OECD, it is still not average, UK consumers will spend £1,174 online possible to calculate the true scope, scale and in 2015, making us the most regular internet impact of the problem. This makes it extremely shoppers in Europe. difficult to influence enforcement agendas and Unfortunately, as the OECD also predicted, key decision makers, and to focus resources legitimate traders have not been the only correctly in order to take appropriate and ones to recognise the value and opportunities decisive action. of e-commerce. Through the internet, counterfeiters are now able to engage with THE INTERNET EFFECT consumers directly and deliver millions of As part of its study, the OECD highlighted why imitation products directly to their homes. the situation was likely to worsen. It envisaged European Commission statistics back this that a major threat would be the potential up. Its latest report on the subject, produced for counterfeiters to increase the use of the in 2014, highlights the fact that over 35 million CONSUMER PRODUCTS

CASE STUDY

MAKING THE MOST OF TRADING STANDARDS SERVICES

MELISSA DRING, ROBYN ELLISON, Director of Policy and Policy Officer, Chartered Trading Standards Institute

nforcement and regulation can be April and December 2014, a staggering 1.9 million incredibly challenging in this ever- non-compliant or unsafe goods were intercepted evolving environment. Indeed, reflecting at UK ports through the ports project. Of those, on the local authority model, it is clear over 670,000 were faulty or non-compliant that the current structure of Trading Standards cosmetic products2. Eservices hampers enforcement in this specific area. Despite the successes of the project, it is As discussed in this chapter, the manufacture and clear that these efforts are only really addressing distribution of counterfeit goods has resulted in a the tip of the iceberg in terms of the types of surge of large-scale criminal operations that cross dangerous consumer products entering the UK. borders at both national and local authority levels. The patchwork of coverage provided by local In recent years, Trading Standards services, as authority Trading Standards services remains of with other local authority services, have adapted concern in terms of tackling locally-based online in the face of austerity. On average, staff numbers sellers, who can easily move their operations 143 have dropped by 40% and budgets by 50% (ref. 1). from one locality to another in order to evade However as the primary enforcement agency detection. tasked with tackling the import and distribution Furthermore, for those Trading Standards of dangerous counterfeit goods, Trading Standards and border agencies involved in the ports services also have responsibility for the legislative project, it is clear that they are unable to open enforcement of a diverse array of other consumer every container and intercept every potentially protection issues, including underage sales, tackling dangerous import. Thus for the tens of thousands rogue traders, combatting scams, animal health of products that are successfully intercepted and issues and weights and measures. Some Trading seized by the team, there are many thousands Standards services currently operate with just more that make it onto market stalls, into shops one part-time member of staff, yet they must and directly through the doors of UK consumers. still attempt to enforce all statutory legislation Technological advances that would enable assigned to Trading Standards. Unfortunately, in automated verification of certain types of goods this climate of diminishing resources and increased at UK borders would go a long way in helping to legislative burdens, many individual Trading tackle the stream of counterfeit goods entering Standards services are struggling to cope with the UK, especially during out-of-hours periods tackling this large-scale cross-border crime. when Trading Standards inspectors are unavailable In an attempt to address this issue, National to monitor imports. Trading Standards has begun work to organise a Furthermore, outside of the work directly more coordinated effort to tackle the distribution conducted at UK ports in tackling dangerous of dangerous consumer goods with their Safety at counterfeits, advances in forensics that would Ports and Borders project. The team works with make it easier and more cost-effective for Trading 14 local authority services across ports, airports Standards officers to test products that are and postal hubs to intercept and detain unsafe manufactured and dispatched primarily within the or illegal counterfeit consumer products. They UK would also enable quicker and more effective also act as a single point of contact for border enforcement to tackle these issues at home. authorities, and utilise an intelligence-led approach to prioritise their resources effectively. Between FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS, companies, but in reality they are mostly based in China or Russia. ENFORCEMENT IN THE UK HAS A more recent development that has aided TENDED TO FOCUS ON REDUCING counterfeiters has been the attention given to social media (see case study p147). Using multiple THE VOLUME OF AVAILABLE auction sites, and social media platforms such as COUNTERFEIT PRODUCTS. Facebook and Twitter, criminals are gaining the confidence of users through images of genuine goods, fake labels and packaging, and prices that are actually close to those being charged for fakes were detained at our borders, many of real products. This latest ploy is used to deceive which were small parcels being delivered through buyers into believing they are getting a bargain. express and postal traffic, as a result of internet However, the end result is that, once again, they orders4. Demonstrating the increasing trend in often end up receiving cheap tat and potentially globalisation for online retailing, over 83% of all having their identities stolen and their bank counterfeits seized by customs authorities actually accounts infiltrated as well. originated in China and Hong Kong. Perhaps the most worrying fact produced A FORENSIC APPROACH by the Commission was that over 25% of all Responding to the growing threat of counterfeits detained at the borders were counterfeiting requires new and innovative potentially dangerous to the health and safety of approaches and initiatives. Over the past 20 consumers. Many counterfeit electrical appliances years, enforcement in the UK has tended to are sold without a ground-fault circuit interrupter focus on reducing the volume of available 144 (GFCI), which protects users against electrical counterfeit products. This has meant an shock, for example in the event that a hair dryer emphasis on disrupting manufacturing, falls into water. The purchase of counterfeit distribution and sales chains so that potential batteries may damage genuine electrical buyers are unable to get access to products. appliances such as tablets and smart phones. However, due to a run down on resources; These batteries have not been subjected to the continuously extending enforcement correct consumer tests, and have been known responsibilities (local authority Trading to cause overheating, explode or even catch fire Standards services are tasked with enforcing under conditions in which a genuine product over 250 pieces of statutory legislation); and would survive. more effective manufacturing, transportation, Counterfeiting can no longer be considered distribution and selling models used by to be an innocuous, small time, criminal international criminals; it is clear that this work sideshow. Moving massive volumes of product has been unable to effectively stem the supply around the world, and evading enforcement for counterfeit goods. For more background authorities in the process, requires vast on the Trading Standards situation, see the case resources, wide-reaching transport chains and study on p143. sophisticated networks. What has become clear Diverse legal frameworks across the world in recent years is that the criminals involved in also contain obstacles that affect practices used counterfeiting are extremely determined, and in enforcement and information exchange. The have not only become adept at manufacture fact that penalties differ between jurisdictions and distribution – they have become shrewd has an effect on the courts and the mind-set of marketing and sales people. By building the general public in disparate ways. impressive online websites and stores that As a result, there is a need for central appear to sell original products at discounted government to work with enforcement prices, they continually attract individual authorities to identify successful best consumers and businesses to buy nothing practices and build greater understanding and more than inferior and substandard replicas. collaborative strength to adopt alternative The added attraction for buyers is that the strategies – including forensic analysis – that sites appear to be owned by UK or EU-based focus on other areas. An increase in the CONSUMER PRODUCTS

Table 1: Consumer products, potential safety concerns, and analytical techniques used in investigations

CONSUMER PRODUCT: ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES EMPLOYED SAFETY CONCERN TO TEST PRODUCTS

Food products: presence of toxins, permitted and not Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (LCMS) permitted colours and additives, sugar content and nutritional value Analysis using chemical reagents

Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (GCMS) Imported food and animal feed products: high levels of residual High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) pesticides or heavy metals like mercury Cold Vapour Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (CVAFS)

Counterfeit food products: authenticity HPLC and harmful ingredients Gas Chromatography (GC)

Melamine kitchenware: release of formaldehyde Spectrophotometry

Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-AES) Toys: compliance with BS EN71 (the British Standard for toy safety), including tests for heavy metals in paint, flammability Rate of spread of flame test within a flammability chamber and detachability of small parts Tension, torque, drop, impact, compression and soaking tests to determine mechanical properties

145 Cosmetics: prohibited substances such as lead, mercury, Atomic Absorption Spectrometry hydroquinone or phenol; restricted substance such as CVAFS hydrogen peroxide or p-phenylenediamine (PPD); and levels of permitted preservatives such as benzoic acid, sorbic acid, HPLC phenoxyethanol and parabens Titration

availability of forensic data would help to define To ensure the authenticity of traded goods the scope and methods of illicit goods trading in the UK, the local authority Trading Standards in the UK, and focus the appropriate amount of services work in collaboration with the public resources to stop illegal trade. In other words, analyst laboratories. Public Analysts provide enforcement needs to be reshaped to change scientific and calibration services ensuring perceptions and understanding, rather than product safety and compliance with all relevant solely being aimed at wiping out the availability UK legislation. In doing so, they use a variety of fake goods. of forensic techniques to both protect the This strategy requires forensic analysis built consumer from harm and support enforcement on robust statistics and certified measurement services, particularly Trading Standards Officers. methods, and has enormous potential to Examples of forensic techniques used strengthen the value of genuine goods. This in to identify and investigate issues relating to turn ensures real financial advantages to the consumer products are detailed in Table 1. manufacturing economy, on a huge scale: the sale of counterfeit goods has a serious detrimental FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES effect on the economy, with a projected cost of An important growth area in the forensic thousands of jobs. This forensics-based approach analysis of consumer goods involves putting would also inspire consumer confidence, the process of authenticity verification in the and enable secure supply chains that result in hands of consumers, rather than relying on a economic growth with an increase in employment. governmental body to validate genuine goods FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

company Quantum Materials Corp8, which has IMPROVING THE SECURITY AND developed a technology that uses embedded VERACITY OF SUPPLY CHAINS, nanocrystals within 3D inks to produce a THROUGH THE USE OF ADVANCED physically unclonable signature known only to the manufacturer of the product. While this NEW TECHNOLOGIES, REQUIRES enables the secure identification of genuine INVESTMENT IN INNOVATION. parts, it does not stop the production and use of unauthorised copies. In developing innovative technologies in consumer protection, we must be mindful that through targeted sampling within centralised these advances create the following benefits: laboratories. • More focused and targeted deterrence of Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute the trafficking of dangerous products and of Technology (MIT) have recently developed organised criminality inks using nanocrystals5, dyed with rare earth • Enable greater collaboration between the minerals in unique polymer stream patterns, relevant authorities, such as those in the UK, which can be used to identify legitimate EU, international enforcement bodies, and products through the printing of unique policymakers (including Europol, Interpol, security tags or barcodes. These patterns glow the World Customs Organization, and the under UV light and can be detected with a European Commission) smartphone. • Empower harm reduction tactics within local Another important threat to the purchase of and global markets genuine consumer goods is the growth in 3D • Facilitate assurance of provenance throughout 146 printing and additive manufacturing technology. the supply chain, from manufacturer to Engineering firms are adopting these techniques consumer, to raise confidence and therefore as a means of cheaper and more efficient value in genuine goods manufacturing. But the technology can also make it easier to produce counterfeit goods From the consumer viewpoint, more should if the drawings for a genuine part are leaked be done to make the online shopping arena online, or even reverse engineered. A striking a safer space. The most recent Ofcom example of this can be found in a 2014 Communications Market report9 found that Washington Post article6, which accidentally smartphones have now overtaken computers published a leaked photograph of the US as the preferred method of browsing the Transportation Security Administration’s master internet. While the use of virus protection and key for its approved locks that are used on firewall software may be common knowledge in millions of suitcases worldwide. Although the protecting computers from online attacks, few photo was removed from the website within smartphone users install specialist smartphone hours, a set of computer automated design security software and are therefore at risk of (CAD) files had been uploaded to the internet fraud through malicious websites and phishing in an equally short amount of time, with 3D attacks. Although dedicated store apps offer a printed keys produced and successfully used to level of protection, not all companies have their open TSA locks the same day. own apps and a large amount of trade is still A recent report7 from the information carried out through browser-based shopping. technology research and advisory company There are a number of accreditation schemes Gartner predicted that the emergence of designed to enable safe internet shopping, 3D printing will create major challenges with including Brand-i10 (a shopping directory that regards to intellectual property (IP) theft, only lists webstores selling genuine products), resulting in a loss of “at least $100 billion per VeriSign Trust11 (a seal awarded to the website year in IP globally” by 2018. New safeguarding when the company’s identity has been verified techniques are required to counter the threat and the site has passed daily tests for malware), from this novel technology. One possible and the Trusted Shops scheme12 (an online shop solution has been put forward by the US certification system resulting the display of the CONSUMER PRODUCTS

CASE STUDY

CONSUMER PROTECTION AND SOCIAL MEDIA

MIKE ANDREWS, National Trading Standards eCrime Team

here is little doubt that efforts consumers to potentially significant risk of to confront intellectual property injury. (IP) infringement have seen The ultimate destination of the products major changes in recent years. was traced to a warehousing and storage Traditionally, Trading Standards was, quite facility in the south-west of England. Following Trightly, focused on counterfeit products being the execution of an entry warrant, further offered for sale at car boot sales and local significant quantities of similar products were markets. While this does still take place, the uncovered along with business records and past decade has seen a significant shift towards various electronic devices such as laptops online infringement. Initially centred on auction and mobile phones. As is routine in Trading websites, this has moved in the past few years Standards cases, the electronic devices towards social media. Indeed, the most recent were examined by digital forensic specialists 1 IP Crime Report makes specific reference to within the eCrime Team – a key component 147 the significant opportunities and challenges in successfully identifying and prosecuting that social media present. Figures published offenders. in the report show that products sourced Digital forensic examinations regularly from social media are now the second-largest uncover evidence of the products’ supply source of reports made to Crimestoppers chain; communications concerning their regarding IP infringement. An unfortunate purchase; and evidence of the intended outlet side-effect of this increase is an associated for the products. This is not only vital in increase in issues of product safety. There securing successful prosecution outcomes, are numerous recorded incidences of serious it is also a rich source of intelligence when injury and even death associated with the sale trying to identify the wider organised crime of counterfeit products bought online. networks that are known to be associated A recent case investigated by the National with counterfeiting. In this case, the forensic Trading Standards eCrime Team (NTSeCT) analysis uncovered details of the product highlights the growing phenomenon of manufacturers in China, the shipping company, products sold through social media. Initially, a the importer and evidence to indicate that the quantity of potentially IP-infringing products products were ultimately destined for retail was uncovered through the diligent work online through social media. This intelligence of Trading Standards officers at one of the helped Trading Standards to prevent further ports of entry on the south coast of England. shipments from entering the UK, while Intelligence suggested the products were ensuring that products already in the country destined for sale online, so the case was were destroyed and prevented from entering referred to NTSeCT. The products recovered the supply chain. included various cosmetics, manicure kits and associated electrical devices (nail-gel dryers and electric nail-files etc). The electrical products were of particular concern because they were specifically intended for use in nail salons, which would then expose countless FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

BLOCK CHAIN: AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE

JESSI BAKER, CEO of Project Provenance Ltd

roduct supply chains are often cryptographic signatures. Crucially, these complex and opaque. It can be blocks are shared across a global peer-to- difficult to prove where materials, peer network. This provides an open data ingredients and products have platform that can deliver neutrality, reliability come from, or how they were created. Up and security. Pand down supply chains, there is a call for The basic block chain mechanism was more transparency and an increasing demand originally proposed as part of a solution for for products with proven origin. Information administering the shared accounting ledger about how products are made and used can underlying Bitcoin. Beyond this financial inform better purchasing decisions – based application, block chains can be generalized on more than just their price, quality and and used to implement arbitrary digital brand – but that information needs to be contracts that no one – neither the users 148 both available and trusted. nor the operators of the system – can break. This end-to-end transparency is almost This makes block chains a unique platform impossible to achieve with existing systems, for applications involving multiple parties because the information would have to with little trust in each other: for example, be pooled into large data silos. This has fragmented product supply chains or technological, economic, and organisational complex chains of custody. limitations: One key attribute of block chains that • Pooling data creates a single point of make them well suited to storing and weakness and failure that also acts as a transferring material is the public/private key bottleneck; it can also lead to potential infrastructure. It mimics a physical signature biases and selective disclosure by provably registering an identity with a • The future costs of such data silo projects digital document or instruction, without are highly opaque, and joint initiatives are giving others the ability to reproduce those often impractical because there is little signatures. Consequently, it is possible to hold incentive for individual partners to join a small piece of data (known as a secret, or when they can freely benefit from the private key), and use it to demonstrate that results – for example, in a sprawling food you have explicitly sanctioned a particular supply chain where middlemen may fear piece of information (a document, image, being cut out if data is exposed order or other such digital item) without • Partners may fear an undesired disclosure ever uncovering that secret to another party. of critical business information, causing a Provenance has developed a block chain loss of competitive advantage to handle supply chain data. Suppliers, • NGOs or third parties that could be manufacturers, brands and certifiers can commissioned as a neutral operator often employ this framework to access, publish lack the technical expertise to do so and transfer records of ownership of physical assets, along with key information about their Block chain technology now offers a solution. creation, transformation or ownership. This is A block chain is a form of database that linked to physical items with smart tags and groups data into blocks, and links them using IDs (e.g. barcode and batch number). CONSUMER PRODUCTS

European Trustmark). Research is needed to ascertain whether a universal verification scheme is achievable across all platforms: that would require close collaboration between regulatory bodies, banks, retailers and phone manufacturers. Improving the security and veracity of supply chains, through the use of advanced new technologies, requires investment in innovation. The first steps in this space were made with the advent of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology, and stamping of goods This framework provides an immutable, with holographic logos. Further advantages for public (although pseudo-anonymous) increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of record that is interoperable across all data operations within the supply chain are afforded systems. It is also auditable, cost-efficient, through the use of block chain technology, and offers guaranteed continuity because for example (see case study p148). Lab on a it is independent of any single company or chip (LOC) technology, combined with the data operator. This allows the authenticity rapid expansion of smartphone technology, or provenance of an item to be tracked has shown great promise in transforming along even the most complex chain of the biomedical landscape13. In this case, the custody. analysis environment is shifting: from centralised laboratories with long turn-around testing routines, to point-of-care diagnostics that INFORMATION ABOUT almost instantly put information into medical 149 HOW PRODUCTS practitioners’ hands. The same type of technology could be leveraged to produce a ARE MADE AND USED similar revolutionary change in the detection CAN INFORM BETTER and policing of counterfeit goods. PURCHASING DECISIONS CONCLUSION – BASED ON MORE THAN In tackling the ever-growing issue of consumer fraud, we should be mindful that advances in JUST THEIR PRICE, QUALITY manufacturing and communications technology AND BRAND – BUT THAT presents opportunity not just to the criminals producing and distributing counterfeit goods, INFORMATION NEEDS but can also stimulate significant growth within TO BE BOTH AVAILABLE genuine markets. By creating the right conditions within the UK AND TRUSTED. to facilitate innovation in the area of forensic evaluation of consumer goods, as well as expert consumer protection services that can call upon these to react to criminal threats, we create value for the UK manufacturing market.

The authors would like to thank Kent Scientific Services and The Anti-Counterfeiting Group for their assistance with the research for this chapter. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CHAPTER 14 ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS

IAN L. BOYD We breathe, eat and drink other people’s pollution. Yet it has proved difficult to Chief Scientific design market solutions to deal with this equitably, so that the individuals who cause Adviser, Defra environmental degradation carry the costs of those actions. To promote good environmental outcomes, micro-innovation in measuring environmental variables needs to be matched by macro-economic innovation to build market-based solutions.

orensics is not a discipline commonly The rationale for setting environmental associated with environmental issues. standards and measuring compliance is strongly Whether tracing the source of driven by the concept of equity. Around half environmental pollution based on a of some air pollutants in the UK come from Fchemical signature or holding a nation to account other parts of Europe1 – and, of course, the UK for its non-compliance with internationally-agreed contributes to the air quality problems of other standards (e.g. in trans-boundary pollution), this European countries. Water contaminated by requires measurements to assess whether the sewage washed out to sea has the potential to law has been broken. In broad terms, this can be contaminate seafood, which could be distributed described as ‘environmental forensics’. widely through the food chain. The choices This chapter is addressed to policy developers, people make about how to dispose of waste can regulators and NGOs. Like other developed have widespread effects, sometimes with long countries, the UK is on a journey from time lags between the release of pollutants and 150 understanding that it is essential to regulate the the ultimate effect, and this has become an issue effects that people have on the environment, driving global politics when it comes to different to understanding how regulation can be national responses to the need to reduce carbon implemented most effectively and efficiently. emissions. UK environmental law is largely led from the We breathe, eat and drink other people’s European Union, and the legal process has pollution. The ‘tragedy of the commons’ has a not proceeded much beyond the imposition powerful presence across the environment. It of legally-binding regulation, often measured has proved difficult to design market solutions against standards and targets. Prevention to deal with these issues of equity, so that the through improved behaviour would be a better individuals who cause environmental degradation mechanism than regulation, but moving social and carry the costs of those actions. Indeed, costing cultural norms to a position where environmental environmental degradation is itself difficult. It has protection is part of the reward structure is still become a duty of government to hold polluters a long way off. This chapter sets out where the to account for their compliance with standards challenges lie for achieving this transition, and the of behaviour designed to try to account for role of science in driving this progress. these costs. The market itself is unsympathetic to this need and the activities to cost them through regulation WE BREATHE, EAT AND DRINK OTHER for public good are often one step behind market innovations. Even establishing strong principles PEOPLE’S POLLUTION. THE ‘TRAGEDY such as ‘the polluter pays’, which forms a basis of OF THE COMMONS’ HAS A POWERFUL European environmental law, has a mild effect on this process. There is a need to better align the PRESENCE ACROSS THE ENVIRONMENT. common goods derived from the environment IT HAS PROVED DIFFICULT TO DESIGN with market behaviours. Measurement is at the root of providing MARKET SOLUTIONS TO DEAL WITH assurance around compliance with standards, THESE ISSUES OF EQUITY. and for invoking direct action to detect and remedy environmental problems, sometimes ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS

by prosecuting offenders. These measurements would be an important feature of any market- span traditional forensics and involve: provision based mechanisms applied to a more generic of post-hoc proof of illegal action, such as form of regulation. For the time being these the release of toxic chemicals; preventative mechanisms largely do not exist, so it is for monitoring through regular measurement and governments to safeguard the benefits through reporting of compliance against a standard; and statutory, voluntary and regulatory mechanisms. provision of evidence used to inform decisions This has led to the development of a doctrine about environmental permitting. of market intervention in order to design Forensic methods also apply where there is a environmental resilience. need to control the emergence of bad outcomes. There is now a long and contentious history The investigation that led to the understanding about how the safeguards have been built in to of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) European and national legal and administrative involved detailed analysis that ultimately enabled instruments, such as European Directives. the detection and control of the disease agent. A A similar process has happened within the similar kind of investigation led to the discovery of United States. The contentious nature of the the tropospheric ozone hole and the subsequent issue has largely revolved around the absolute establishment of the Montreal Protocol, which and relative valuations that different sections regulates the release of ozone-depleting chemicals of society have placed on the environment. in to the atmosphere; and to the identification of Individual actors operating rationally but with tributyltin (TBT) as a potent endocrine disrupter, self-interest are rarely rewarded for acting in which has now been eliminated from anti-fouling the wider public good. The lack of an agreed paints used on ships. Forensics merges almost basis for constructing objective valuations of imperceptibly with investigative epidemiology and environmental goods leaves a lot to play for, often environmental science. seen in political debates that continue to the 151 present. WHY TAKE A FORENSIC APPROACH Government regulation to prevent the TO THE ENVIRONMENT? misallocation of environmental resources is We value the environment for the benefits consequently a very blunt instrument. The it provides. These benefits take many forms, resulting complex mesh of environmental including the goods and services from the regulation has the characteristics of an over- environment that support our health and welfare. engineered construction produced by designers According to the Office for National Statistics who neither understood the forces they were (ONS), nearly one-quarter of the net worth of attempting to control, nor the materials used the UK is accounted for by the environment, to build the structure. Arguably, the designers although this is likely to be only a partial view of were also unsure of the structure’s purpose. In its true worth because it is difficult to estimate the absence of a common currency for valuing the non-market values derived from the (and possibly trading) environmental assets, environment. there is now a plethora of different variables Recent work under the National Ecosystem used as end points, or objectives, in themselves. Assessment2 and by the Natural Capital Committee3 has gone a long way to improving explicit valuation of the environment in ways that could eventually result in environmental assets appearing as part of a national infrastructure balance sheet. In the long term, one objective would be to build market-based mechanisms to sustain environmental benefits. The corollary of such a mechanism is that there would also be mechanisms to cost the impact of different activities on the environment, based on the rate at which they would deplete the environmental asset base. Ensuring that people pay this cost FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

CASE STUDY

ENVIRONMENTAL DNA ANALYSIS FOR WILDLIFE CONSERVATION

PETER BROTHERTON, Director of Specialist Services and Programmes, Natural England

ome wildlife species are hard to find. £1000 per pond1. Natural England was quick to When elusive creatures are also in approve the new technique, and industry was decline and strictly protected under quick to respond. Over 2500 eDNA tests were European law, difficulties in detecting carried out in 2015, suggesting that businesses them can be problematic for conservationists are likely to have saved over £2 million in survey Sand businesses alike. One such species is the costs this year alone thanks to the introduction great crested newt (Triturus cristatus), our most of the eDNA test; time-related savings are likely charismatic amphibian. Great crested newts to be even more significant. A growing number have declined across Europe due to losses of of laboratories are also coming forward to offer their ponds and other habitats, but they are still the test. widespread and locally common in some parts Innovation feeds innovation. Our ability to of the UK. As a European Protected Species, it is more easily detect great crested newts has 152 an offence to kill, injure or disturb great crested made it possible to engage the public in the first newts or damage their habitat. To avoid com- national survey of the species, begun in 2015. mitting an offence, businesses are required to Even more significantly, Natural England is now assess whether they are present in any suitable working with local authorities to use eDNA to ponds likely to be impacted by a development. develop a detailed understanding of local great Traditionally, this assessment has been a skilled crested newt populations. This information will and time-consuming process: each pond re- enable the piloting of a new, strategic approach quiring at least four night-time visits during the to the conservation of the species across breeding period by licensed surveyors who use planning authority areas, doing more to protect three separate survey methods to search for the and enhance the most important locations newts. The complexity of this traditional survey for the species, while making it easier for technique imposes significant costs and delays development to proceed in other, less significant on developers, while also making it hard to plan great crested newt areas. This transformative their effective conservation. approach will see a shift in the emphasis of In 2013, Natural England and the Natural England’s licensing decisions towards Department for Environment, Food and achieving better conservation outcomes for Rural Affairs (Defra) supported research to newt populations as a whole instead of seeking investigate whether emerging environmental to protect newts in locations that are unlikely to DNA (eDNA) techniques could offer a solution be viable in the long-term. This is good news for to the problem of surveying for great crested business and good news for newts. newts. eDNA is nuclear or mitochondrial As DNA detection techniques become more DNA that is released from an organism into its advanced, we can expect to see a rapid growth environment, and initial proof of concept studies in wildlife applications, from early detection had demonstrated that its detection could of invasive species and diseases through to be an effective survey technique in aquatic understanding soil communities. The innovations environments. The government-funded study we are achieving with great crested newts are conclusively showed that eDNA surveys were only the start of this story. at least as effective as the traditional technique, while also providing estimated savings of up to ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS

Whether these actually reflect meaningful commonly used today. This doctrine suggests that outcomes varies with circumstances, but in any changes caused by human presence must be many cases the connection between these avoided, even if (as in this case) the changes most and the values placed on the environment probably lie within the normal range of natural by society are tenuous. These values are variability. themselves inconsistent and therefore difficult Seen in this context, the direction of travel in to compare; and, where conflict arises, it environmental forensics – towards measuring becomes impossible to provide an objective and controlling more and more, at finer and finer assessment of where priorities should lie. levels of detail, just in case it might be important The implicit claim made of these variables in future – is clearly untenable. is that they are surrogates for valuation, but This is the practical consequence of the this sometimes lacks credibility. For example, ‘Precautionary Principle’, stimulated by a systemic ‘waste recycling’ is a measurement that has pessimism about the ways in which innovation been treated as an end in itself, rather than can imperceptibly draw down environmental one possible route to reduce residual waste capital without paying a proper cost, but without and improve resource extraction. Focus on this also recognising that innovation has a double measurement is potentially distorting action edge because it is both a threat and a solution. away from reducing our use of resources and The need for the measurement or monitoring reusing ‘waste’, both of which are the real of environmental indicators through time was objectives. initially driven by a sincere search for those Consequently, the UK is mandated to surrogate indicators within the environment that measure an immense amount of information most effectively represented societal valuation. about everything from the chemistry of rivers But this has gradually mutated into a process of to the number of birds on farmland and the measurement and reporting of data as an end in 153 noise emitted by human activity in the ocean. itself, which supports the doctrine of designed Efforts to focus attention on the features that resilience, often closely associated with the genuinely inform us about the health of the doctrine of hazard avoidance. Both are hungrier environment have been hampered by a lack of for evidence showing compliance to potentially underlying knowledge about their impacts. For flawed standards than they are for evidence to example, we know almost nothing about the improve the basis upon which those standards consequences of man-made noise in the ocean, are designed. Across Europe, feeding the resulting but we have created binding commitments to appetite for environmental data is now an measure noise within certain sound frequency industrial-scale process requiring governments to ranges – without even knowing whether those establish bodies like the UK’s Environment Agency, frequency ranges are important, or what the which also has regulatory powers. At European dose-response might be. In this particular scale, coordination and thought leadership is in the case, we do not even know how the response hands of the European Environment Agency, while might manifest itself, whether in fish, marine regulation sits with the European Commission. mammals, plankton, corals, jellyfish, or seaweed. The data are used to prosecute the miscreants – a Noise could affect any or none of these species, process known within the European structure as and there is even uncertainty about whether ‘infraction’ – and to produce reports intended to we need to study populations or individuals illuminate the state of the environment4. Some, like in this context. The rationale for actions like the volume ‘Late Lessons from Early Warnings’5, this hinges on the hazard-avoidance doctrine seemed intentionally designed to magnify the

THE UK IS MANDATED TO MEASURE AN IMMENSE AMOUNT OF INFORMATION ABOUT EVERYTHING FROM THE CHEMISTRY OF RIVERS TO THE NUMBER OF BIRDS ON FARMLAND AND THE NOISE EMITTED BY HUMAN ACTIVITY IN THE OCEAN. FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

THE ABILITY TO REPORT MEASUREMENTS IN REAL TIME, AND AT A REDUCED COST, IS MAKING SOME DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE, HELPING DECISION-MAKING AT ALL LEVELS OF SOCIETY AND MOVING US TOWARDS THE GOAL OF ENSURING THAT PEOPLE HAVE THE INFORMATION THEY NEED

negative consequences of not adopting the more likely to achieve a culture of deterrence doctrines of hazard avoidance and designed and build a sense of devolved responsibility than resilience. the former, where there are few incentives for individuals to take responsibility for their own PREVENTION VERSUS DETECTION actions. Developing countries would be well Functional environmental forensics can perhaps placed to benefit from such an analysis when be seen to bifurcate along two interacting contemplating how to design their own systems tracks. One track involves detecting and of compliance with environmental standards. correcting incidents where an agreed standard A potential strength of the doctrine of has been exceeded (detection); the other designed resilience and investment in prevention uses feedback from forensic measurements to is the prospect it provides for progressive change behaviours within society, thus reducing improvement of environmental quality. Ramping the probability of exceedance in the first place up the thresholds of compliance over time 154 (prevention). has been critical to achieving reductions in Detection is usually linked with operational residual waste, improved beach water quality management to support trade regulations and and reduced vehicle emissions. This can only protect human health, for example. Prevention be achieved against a background of effective concerns long-term objectives that seek measurement using standardised methods. progressive environmental improvement, or One example of the aggregated progress attempt to prevent the slide towards declining enabled by this approach can be found in baselines of environmental quality, a process improvements in air quality (see Figure 1). that has been suggested to have happened for Although the speed of change in this and other marine fish populations. cases is slower than many would wish for, the Prevention is often seen to be the most rate of change is probably proportional to cost-effective option; the very high costs of the rate of evolution of the delivery process. environmental remediation often mean that This, in turn, is a complex function of several investments in prevention are likely to be rate-limiting processes, including the rate worthwhile. Consequently, the considerable of innovation in technology and business infrastructure that has emerged to support systems; depreciation and obsolescence of prevention within Europe probably has a strong past investments; and the discounting applied economic rationale, although this has not, as to the future benefits derived from current far as I am aware, been tested adequately investments. However, none of these would against any counterfactual. The current range operate effectively unless there was a system of different infrastructure and bureaucratic for setting evidence-based standards, and the solutions applied to environmental regulation field of environmental forensics provides this across the developed world provides an foundation. opportunity to build a better understanding of the relative merits of investment in detection WHAT SHOULD BE MEASURED? and prevention. It is a moot point whether The environment is a complex place, with prevention is always more effective than a many variables that could be measured to combination of risk-based detection and assess compliance, control outcomes and adapt proportionately large penalties. The latter is to emerging challenges. Environmental data ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS

Figure 1: Annual emissions of major air pollutants relative to levels in 1970 (ref. 1). Solid lines show the measured relative emissions. The introduction of measured standards and targets has been an important factor in achieving improvements in air quality.

140

120

Index Line 100

Ammonia 80 Non-methane volitile organic compounds 60

Index (1970=100) Nitrogen

Ammonia (1980=100) Oxides 40

PM10 PM 20 2.5 Sulphur Dioxide

0 155 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 are becoming increasingly accessible through carcinogenic. Because we can now measure automated measurement and new sensors. glyphosate in food and other environmental The ability to report measurements in real products to extraordinary precision, it follows time, and at a reduced cost, is making some that we are increasingly aware of its presence data more accessible, helping decision-making at very low doses. However, this does not at all levels of society and moving us towards equate to the presence of a pharmacologically the goal of ensuring that people have the important dose, and this point is often ignored information they need to make decisions based by those making these kinds of claims. on the costs of their actions. Increasing volume, The DPSIR (driver, pressure, state, impact, accessibility and precision of measurements response) framework has provided a further presents challenges to this goal, because data guide to the construction of environmental are not equivalent to information for those measurement and the application of regulation. without the expertise to interpret the data. DPSIR captures the concept of cause-effect, Greater precision means that dose can be which is probably not sufficiently central to measured to phenomenally low levels, but that thinking within the field of environmental precision is not necessarily matched by the forensics. In principle, it is better to regulate the same level of understanding of dose-response driver that creates an environmental pressure, at these low levels. The doctrine of hazard avoidance tends to perpetuate and amplify ignorance of DNA IN THE WIDER ENVIRONMENT the importance of dose. For example, it is CAN PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF THE attractive to some environmental pressure groups to play strongly on the recent PRESENCE OF KEY CRYPTIC SPECIES AT assessments concluding that glyphosate, A SMALL FRACTION OF THE COST. a commonly used herbicide, is probably FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

because it is earlier in the sequence of causation. TYPE AND QUALITY OF The problem for many regulators is that MEASUREMENT causation is often poorly understood, and the Technology is driving innovation in environmental public perception of causation in contested forensics in the same way as it is in other areas is susceptible to propaganda – as has forensic applications. Harnessing the power happened with the controversy around of non-targeted analytical techniques such as changes in populations of pollinators. In this metagenomics, isotope analysis, DNA finger case the public perception is that some forms printing and next-generation sequencing is of pesticide are responsible for declines in bee essential (see Chapter 10). populations, whereas it is much more likely These can be applied to a wide range of that a wide range of factors are responsible, approaches, including understanding the sources including weather, long-term trends in land and legality of supply of food to timber and fish6. use, increasing disease and poor data about DNA in the wider environment can provide pollinator populations, as well as pesticides. evidence of the presence of key cryptic species at That makes it difficult to develop regulations a small fraction of the cost of previous methods that will help pollinator populations to (see case study on p152). Further examples recover: not only are there many contributing of progressive technological improvements drivers, but there is also uncertainty about include: rapidly increasing availability and spatial the actual direction of change in many of and temporal resolution of Earth-observation these populations, and there are asymmetrical data at declining cost; and intelligent, statistically- views about causation amongst some of the robust sampling designs that make measurements stakeholders who need to be persuaded to cheaper and more effective, and which allows adapt their behaviour. In this case, forensics adjustment of precision to be scaled to the 156 provides the evidence that will shift behaviours appetite for risk. in such a way as to achieve the objective – by The way in which the UK implements air distributing the costs among those who value quality measurements is an example where the benefits brought by pollinators, and by a sparsely distributed network of monitoring incentivising those whose valuation is lower stations is supplemented by modelling of the than the cost they would have to pay to dispersal process for different chemicals and adapt their behaviours. These incentives are particles. This approach merges accurate, site- often provided through direct payments for specific monitoring data with metrological specific activities, as happens in environmental models. This system remains compliant with EU stewardship schemes delivered under the regulations but costs significantly less to support Common Agricultural Policy. than other more extensive air quality monitoring The case of pollinators is perhaps an networks in other EU member states. example of how market-based solutions may Genomics methods are used to help direct tend to emerge in future. Public concern action, rather than to apply standards to improve becomes reflected in a shift in the valuation water quality. This is especially the case when of an environmental asset, leading to a greater distinguishing human and animal bacteria on proportion of people being willing to carry a bathing water pollution, and the methods can cost of supporting the asset. A similar process now also distinguish animal species, allowing more may have begun with air quality. However, in targeted management responses at local scales. each case there is a need to present good Greater capability to measure also has a double quality evidence to the public in ways that edge. Forensic investigation of the presence they can understand and act upon. of viruses and bacteria in shellfish, based on

THE MOVE TOWARDS BETTER, CHEAPER, SMALLER AND LOWER-POWER SENSORS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REVOLUTIONISE ENVIRONMENTAL MEASUREMENT AND, WITH IT, TO CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS. ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS

genetic signatures, has driven a discussion about AS A FIELD, ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS higher standards for shellfish flesh that would impose significant impacts on the industry. HAS EXPANDED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST 30 There is no method for distinguishing live or YEARS AND IS NOW SUPPORTED BY AN infectious material from dead or non-infectious material, and deeper investigation often shows INDUSTRY THAT GENERATES THE that tell-tale fragments of viral DNA do not FORENSIC DATA REQUIRED TO ASSESS represent the presence of ‘live’ virus. Similarly when Cryptosporidium entered the water supply THE ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE to over 300,000 homes in Lancashire during OF EVERYTHING FROM INDIVIDUALS TO August 2015, the local water company issued a ‘boil notice’. There were no cases of illness MULTI-NATIONAL GOVERNANCE that could be linked to the contamination, and PROCESSES, OR MACHINES TO ENTIRE there was a strong suspicion that the oocysts of Cryptosporidium, a protozoan parasite, were INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES. unviable. Again, the detection methods had a high sensitivity, but a low capacity to distinguish the viability of the infectious agent. The move towards better, cheaper, smaller to seek) market solutions that help to couple and lower-power sensors has the potential to individual incentives to broader public goods revolutionise environmental measurement and, derived from the environment. While the with it, to change environmental forensics. Taking processes in place have been built for very sound the laboratory to the field, and disseminating and pragmatic reasons, there is a need to shift information from sensors embedded in everyday towards more risk- and market-based solutions. 157 devices such as cars and phones, will place the There will always be a need for regulation power of detection and analysis in the hands of and statute in this field, and a strong role for many more people. This will help to transfer government, but the nature of environmental the power to make informed decisions closer to forensics needs to change. The current system, those for whom the costs and benefits matter illustrated by the approaches adopted in most, and could incentivise behavioural choices Europe and to some extent the United States, in ways that reward individuals for working in the is arguably unaffordable in the long term, common good. If car drivers had access to simple especially if it was to be rolled out across the air quality measurements about their own car’s developing world. Technology innovation can contribution to air pollution, it would probably help to sustain the system, by delivering more create a very different culture of car ownership, data at greater precision closer to the events and manufacturers would respond accordingly. that affect behavioural choices. But the down sides associated with the interpretive capacity of CONCLUSION decision-makers needs to be addressed through Environmental forensics provides the supporting sophisticated information delivery processes. evidence for a complex set of legislative, Micro-innovation in measuring environmental regulatory and voluntary instruments that variables needs to be matched by macro- support many of the normal functions within economic innovation to build market-based society. As a field, environmental forensics has solutions. Internalising and accounting for the expanded rapidly in the past 30 years and is now economic costs of alternative actions for the supported by an industry that generates the environment – while providing forensic evidence forensic data required to assess the environmental to support this approach – is most likely to be performance of everything from individuals to the best way forward. Transitioning developed multi-national governance processes, or machines economies such as the UK to this alternative way to entire industrial processes. of working needs leadership and vision. This rapid growth has been driven by the joint doctrines of hazard avoidance and designed resilience, a result of the failure to find (or even FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT

158 SECTION 4: SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

In the future, we may be able to SECURING THE FUTURE identify a person’s activity or where they have been by studying microbial communities in their bodies, known OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE as the ‘microbiome’.

The global market for The UK has a long-standing traditional forensic science reputation for being at the is predicted to reach forefront of forensic science innovations, including $17.7 billion developing fingerprinting and DNA profiling. by 2019. Digital forensics Advances in technology promises further growth. that allow the human genome to be mapped in hours rather than weeks will accelerate The high cost and judicial the availability of impact of failing to meet genetic information. standards means forensic techniques must be 160 validated and backed by a strong evidence base before being used.

Miniaturisation and innovations such as RapidHIT DNA or paraDNA will bring conventional laboratory techniques closer to crime scenes and speed up the identification of offenders.

Forensic investigators will use ‘big data’ gathered By 2020, there will be an estimated In-built security systems from the Internet of could be developed that Things and different 5 billion connect smartphones to the databases, using algorithms internet users and up to authorised user through to give advance warning digital biometrics. This could of events. 100 billion be used to investigate connected devices worldwide. criminal activity. In the future, we may be able to identify a person’s activity or where they have been by studying microbial communities in their bodies, known as the ‘microbiome’.

The global market for The UK has a long-standing traditional forensic science reputation for being at the is predicted to reach forefront of forensic science innovations, including $17.7 billion developing fingerprinting and DNA profiling. by 2019. Digital forensics Advances in technology promises further growth. that allow the human genome to be mapped in hours rather than weeks will accelerate The high cost and judicial the availability of impact of failing to meet genetic information. standards means forensic techniques must be validated and backed by 161 a strong evidence base before being used.

Miniaturisation and innovations such as RapidHIT DNA or paraDNA will bring conventional laboratory techniques closer to crime scenes and speed up the identification of offenders.

Forensic investigators will use ‘big data’ gathered By 2020, there will be an estimated In-built security systems from the Internet of could be developed that Things and different 5 billion connect smartphones to the databases, using algorithms internet users and up to authorised user through to give advance warning digital biometrics. This could of events. 100 billion be used to investigate connected devices worldwide. criminal activity. SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

CHAPTER 15

FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES By 2025, forensic science will be transformed by large-scale data analysis, automation, novel analytical techniques, and digital forensics. The UK has the potential to be at the forefront of these developments if basic science, commercial technology development and government policy can be better coordinated.

NPCC FORENSIC SCIENCE AND FORENSIC SCIENCE SPECIAL HOME OFFICE INNOVATION BOARD INTEREST GROUP DR STEVE BLEAY NICK MCCOY, DR BARBARA DANIEL, DR NEIL COHEN Head of Forensic Services, Warwickshire Kings College London PROFESSOR DICK LACEY Police and West Mercia Police IAN ELKINS, SHAUN MALLINSON, KEVIN MORTON, Crown Prosecution Service Partnerships and Funding Director of Regional Scientific Support PETE MERRILL, Coordinator, CAST Services, Yorkshire and the Humber Head of Sciences, National Crime Agency

ooking ahead to 2025, what are the • Admissibility: If the technique is to be used for new technologies that are likely to purposes other than investigation, it needs to be impact upon forensic science and its legally admissible within the rules of evidence 162 ability to keep pace with – or ahead • Affordability: While this should not be a barrier to of – new forms of criminal activity? What is the delivering safe and secure justice, the cost of the Lbest way to manage that innovation? And how technique relative to the challenge it is meeting can UK businesses benefit from innovations in is an important factor (you would not expect forensic techniques? This chapter will address these expensive analytical time to be used for low-level questions by considering the following points: minor crime, for example). • The future technological trends that will help to tackle criminal threats, and the changing face of Perhaps the largest transformation in forensic crime, out to 2025 science over recent years has been the reduction • The new sciences that might be relevant in the costs of analytical services. This has been • The use of a wide range of digital traces to delivered through a blend of more effective determine who is where, and when procurement and advances in automation and • The challenges presented by new technologies, miniaturisation, as well as a much sharper focus on and whether there is a point at which advances the needs of the end user. In this environment, this in science become counter-productive trend will need to continue to provide comparable • Automation of forensics and the wider legal services that are affordable, as well as developing system, along with the impacts of managing large opportunities to be more effective and innovative volumes of data in the way forensic science can be utilised as a tool for public safety. There is a significant risk that There are also several critical factors that we the drive to reduce costs will impact on future need to consider when emerging technologies or capability, with limited investment in research and sciences present opportunities to enhance public development activities. Short-term cuts in forensic safety. These are: research and development will inevitably lead • Credibility: Is the proposed method a credible to longer-term problems. The community and technique that can be validated for use in the government should be considering the end-to-end context of a legal arena, both criminal and civil? process of forensic techniques and the associated • Accessibility: In order for the technique to be investments required to ensure that there is a used, it should be accessible to legal professionals sustainable research and development capability. from both a prosecuting and defence basis The UK has had a long-standing international FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES

reputation for being at the forefront of forensic WITHOUT DOUBT, TECHNOLOGY science innovations: for example, the application of DNA in a criminal investigation and enhancement WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE techniques for fingermarks, and it is of obvious FUTURE OF FORENSIC SCIENCE AND importance that this should be maintained and enhanced. HOW IT IS USED IN BOTH CIVIL AND CRIMINAL APPLICATIONS. . FUTURE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Without doubt, technology will play a significant role in the future of forensic science and how it is used in both civil and criminal applications. The in forensic investigations. exponential growth of accessible electronic devices In the future, forensic investigators will be has touched every aspect of everyday life, from gathering much larger amounts of data with far the way we communicate through to business more complex analytical techniques. This is often transactions that never see human interaction. referred to as ‘big data’, and it takes large amounts While these advances bring opportunities, they of conventional processing power to convert also come with the potential for risk and harm to this data into useful information. In complex anyone engaged in using them. investigations this often exceeds current capability, The speed of change in computer technology and the future of large-scale data analytics could shows no sign of decreasing. Developments in be in grid computing, which is distributed across mobile devices and storage technology now mean multiple processing facilities and unlocks rapid data that data is no longer always stored on a dedicated analysis for investigators. Although this is probably device but can be distributed over a variety of beyond the scale of high-volume crime (such networks and devices located anywhere. This as burglary), it will be used in counter terrorism 163 development of cyber-based devices shows no and serious and organised crime. Add to this the sign of slowing down. It is very difficult to predict potential of cognitive computing, which will make where, for example, social media will develop in the autonomous decisions without human intervention; next ten years, but it will clearly be operating at a as a result, many forensic processes providing different level to that experienced today. There is interpretive evidence could be speeded up through currently a global internet population of 2.4 billion automation, removing human error rates and users that sends around 204 million email messages increasing efficiency. and searches Google 4 million times every minute. There are already forensic identification By 2020, there will be an estimated 5 billion processes in place using ‘lights out’ approaches, internet users and up to 100 billion connected such as the confirmation of identity by checking devices worldwide, representing a step change in ten-print fingerprint forms in the criminal record the use of technology1. collection without any human intervention. In These internet users will be linked through the addition, the ability to fuse datasets together, internet of things (IoT), a vision to connect physical combining information from different databases so devices and objects to a network that allows that they can be handled by a single analytical tool, remote monitoring to gather information (see case will enable the interrogation of information across a study p170). This trend towards connectivity of wide range of sources. The ‘fusing’ of the data could everyday items will in the future provide links to identify valuable information that would be missed criminal activity that could pinpoint an individuals’ when considering the data in isolation. location through wifi, ZigBee, Bluetooth and RFID This will also lead to the development of monitoring; provide information about physical algorithms that will be much smarter in predictive characteristics such as exertion; and even monitor computing, able to interpret data in a way that can personal metabolic information. This interaction start to give advance warnings of events based upon could be through clothing that incorporates the analysis of a range of data sets. The value to wearable technology, vehicles, or access control the Criminal Justice System is likely to be in spotting systems, and there needs to be a balance between trends, particularly when linked with datasets from public safety and the privacy of the individual to hospitals or social services, for example, to identify gain public acceptance for using these data sources hidden crimes like child sexual abuse. SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

The analysis of data as a science is becoming and provide the potential for 24-hour operating. more evident in government initiatives such as While robotics will not replace humans, in the the Data Science in Government programme, future they have the potential to make processes which emphasises the importance of a structured more efficient and effective. approach and wider involvement of those outside the traditional forensic communities. As the NEW SCIENCES RELEVANT TO volumes of data increase, our understanding of FORENSICS the complexities needs to grow concurrently. The In many cases, forensics sciences can be regarded potential for poor analysis of large data sets to be as an applied use of a traditional scientific discipline. masked by computer analytics can be mitigated by The use of DNA in investigations, for example, is fostering the right blend of skills in those developing taken from conventional biology techniques but with and performing the analysis. a different application. James Watson and Francis There is an increasing trend for miniaturisation Crick first described the double helix structure of of technology that will allow law enforcement DNA in 1953, and the discoveries that followed and other users to bring conventional large-scale were applied in many disciplines before DNA laboratory techniques closer to the scene of analysis was first used in a law enforcement context crime. Examples that are being developed include in 1984. rapid DNA units that provide one-stop analysis of It is therefore commonplace that the forensic samples at the scene in less than two hours and world will utilise advances in other areas, because portable hand held GCMS (gas chromatography- the level of research and development investment mass spectrometry) equipment for rapid analysis in medicine, defence and food is far greater than of drugs. These will evolve into more portable in forensic science. Advances in synthetic biology integrated units that deliver real time information may speed up the process and offer new methods 164 to investigations through immediate on-site analysis of working that are far more efficient than current linked remotely to databases that autonomously techniques. It may also complicate the analysis identify people and materials. Improvements in through the introduction of manufactured genetic energy sources beyond conventional lithium ion material. The challenge is to ensure that the batteries will enable extended usage without the forensic world reacts to these developments in a far need to connect to mains supplies. quicker and coordinated manner to maximise the Advances in robotics offer a range of opportunities they present. opportunities, including carrying out hazardous In a forensic context, current DNA technology tasks and thereby reducing the risk of harm to is very effective at determining the probability of human operators. Examples of this could be the two samples originating from the same source, by initial assessment of chemical, biological, radiological, comparing a set of common genetic markers. We nuclear and explosive (CBRNE) incidents using are pushing the boundaries of sensitivity to the point intelligent robotic ground-based or aerial units with where background information is starting to interfere, a sensor array that detects a range of hazardous creating complex mixtures that are uninterpretable. materials and relays analytical information in Although UK forensic standards focus on seventeen real time back to incident controllers. Other markers, there are around 23,000 genes within the applications are the expansion of robotics in human genome that we largely ignore. The use of laboratory and process functions, to automate tasks phenotypic profiling – studying the traits that result from the expression of genes – is understood in other sectors, and forensics should harness this WE ARE PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES to allow the determination of information such OF SENSITIVITY TO THE POINT WHERE as physical characteristics, susceptibility to medical conditions and perhaps even behaviours. BACKGROUND INFORMATION IS Advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS) STARTING TO INTERFERE, CREATING technology currently produce information at a greater rate than the computer processing can COMPLEX MIXTURES THAT ARE deal with, so there will be a need in the future to UNINTERPRETABLE. develop a means of processing large amounts of bio- informatics data. The advances in technology that FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES

allows the genome to be mapped in hours rather THE POTENTIAL IS THAT IN THE than weeks will accelerate the availability of rapid genetic information. One of the significant barriers FUTURE WE MAY BE ABLE TO is the ethical implications of further genetic sample IDENTIFY A PERSON’S ACTIVITY BY analysis, which could provide sensitive information that needs to be managed carefully. But the science THEIR MICROBIOME does open up opportunities never seen before. The analysis of biological material to determine its origin is a valuable tool. However, there is potentially even more information to be gleaned from ingredients of the sample. Although this will impact biochemical analytical techniques that can identify evidence recovery, the wider societal benefits needs to substances in secretions and other body fluids. The be considered. Conversely, products such as powders future will bring us smaller portable equipment, such can be engineered at the nano-scale to be far more as portable Raman infrared devices with live links to effective that conventional micron-sized powders real-time libraries of source material, that will enable which increases performance and will become the users to identify not only source material but also routine approach for developing powdering techniques identify contaminants, building a unique picture of a to recover fingermarks at scenes. person’s lifestyle and movements. These techniques Imaging has been used in the forensic world since will also be utilised to consider the provenance of the early examinations of crimes in the 19th century, samples in terms of origins and sources of material recording and preserving the scene for a range of e.g. confirmation of genuine pharmaceutical or food different reasons. It enables those not present to products, which is a growing problem for society visualise the scene from a distance, and the techniques (see Chapter 12, case study p138; and Chapter 11, adopted over the years have improved significantly. case study p125). There is now a step change available in bringing the 165 The human body is a complex machine made crime scene to the individual, rather than a physical up of different cells that each contain copies of visit. The ability to provide a high-definition virtual the human genome. But the body also contains crime scene using augmented reality that can be microbial communities, collectively known as the visited by many experts and investigators without fear human microbiome, which is largely unexplored of contamination or conflict has many advantages. from a forensic context. We utilise examinations Transmission of information in real-time to of this nature for the analysis of soil and vegetation investigators and specialists, with direct interaction in but not for humans, which may provide a unique the examination, will revolutionise scene examinations and diverse profile of an individual. The potential and prove to be a much more effective means of is that in the future we may be able to identify recovering and analysing evidence. Other areas of a person’s activity by their microbiome or even imaging that are emerging are the use of computed identify where a person has travelled by testing for tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging characteristics within the microbiome (see Chapter (MRI) for forensic autopsies, which have the potential 11, case study p130). Early studies have been able to reveal far more information that conventional to link office workers to their keyboards through examinations; and may in future reduce the need for microbiological analysis, so although this approach surgical interventions, which will preserve the dignity is still in its embryonic stages, it could offer valuable of the deceased and improve their family’s acceptance information to end users. However, to exploit the of the investigation. information available from the biome, we need As well as imaging techniques, we should also to develop solid reference data sets before this consider imagery and video as a source of evidence becomes a routine forensic activity. that comes directly from a wide range of sources, Material sciences bring both threats and including CCTV, body-worn video and unmanned aerial opportunities to the forensic world. The growing vehicles. Indirectly, there will be access to more imagery trends of recycling and reusing materials means that from open sources on the internet such as Facebook products are becoming less ‘pure’ and represent and YouTube uploads. The key issue is that there will a more blended constituency. This makes it more be more higher-quality imagery available from more difficult to maintain reference techniques for analysis, sources, which will require improved algorithms and as they perform differently depending upon the software to deploy video analytical techniques. This SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

CASE STUDY

SKILLS AND COMPETENCY FOR THE FUTURE

ANYA HUNT, CEO, The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences

he Chartered Society of Forensic National Occupational Standards, while keeping Sciences (CSFS) is the UK the costs of accreditation to a minimum. professional body representing In 2004, the FSSoc piloted and launched its the forensic sciences. With 3,000 Accreditation Scheme, which is now world- members worldwide, it offers a huge resource renowned. The aim was to map and measure Tof knowledge and experience that shapes the the forensic science content of full undergraduate forensic sciences globally. The CSFS was formed in and postgraduate programmes (level 6–7) 1959 as the Forensic Science Society (FSSoc), and against recommended component standards was renamed after being granted a Royal Charter that are recognised by industry. This has now in 2013. The CSFS is at the forefront of standards being expanded to incorporate a recognition and development, education and training, and is endorsement scheme for courses with a smaller committed to supporting its members throughout amount of forensic content, and for courses their career in forensic science. offered at levels 3–5. The overarching aim is to give students and employers confidence in the The society has developed a wide-reaching quality and quantity of forensic science educational 166 quality standards framework that includes: provision. While this scheme continues to develop • An accreditation, recognition and endorsement and grow, the scheme does not attract any public scheme for setting standards in forensic science subsidies and some valued educational institutions education find the costs of accreditation preclusive. • Competency assessment for graduates and experienced forensic science practitioners COMPETENCY ASSESSMENT • An extensive and expanding programme of In 2010, following the demise of the Council for continuing professional development (CPD) the Registration of Forensic Practitioners (CRFP), conferences and events the CSFS was approached by a number of niche • A publication bundle with monthly releases of forensic practitioners looking for assurance peer-reviewed and general interest content for that their discipline and its practitioners were the dissemination, discussion and evaluation of recognised as professionals by the courts. This led innovations in the field. to the society developing an ever-expanding suite of Certificates of Professional Competence. The The CSFS is a registered charity that receives aim is that individuals work with the society to have no public funding, and is responsible for supporting their knowledge, experience and skills assessed the entire forensic community with extremely independently against defined core standards. limited resources. Indeed, many of its activities The assessment, together with a demonstrable are unfunded, and rely on the good will of its commitment to CPD, builds towards the individual’s members. professional portfolio of ongoing competency. This potentially benefits the entire Criminal EDUCATION Justice System, yet there are currently no tangible In the mid-1990s, forensic science degree- resources available that would allow this scheme level courses were being developed across the to grow. Countries such as the Netherlands have country, many born out of failing analytical science benefitted from public funding to develop the departments. As part of its 2004 inquiry ‘Forensic highly-acclaimed Nederlands Register Gerechtelijk Science on Trial’1, the House of Commons Science Deskundigen (NRGD), or Netherlands Register of and Technology Committee asked the FSSoc to Court Experts. develop its accreditation system in line with UK In 2013, the changing forensic science FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES

then opens up the possibilities of automated real- time facial recognition, and a more widespread use of video analytics. SKILLS AND COMPETENCY FOR THE FUTURE All the information gathered – whether it is large volumes of data from genomic sources, right through to fingerprint information – must be interpreted in some way to identify an individual. The volume of data suggests that there will be a landscape resulted in a large-scale migration change in the standard approaches to calculating of staff between different organisations in and presenting scientific evidence, for example by the sector. Forensic employers, police and using Bayesian Networks (BNs). BNs are graphical private-sector companies asked the CSFS to models that allow reasoning when uncertainty is find ways to assess the suitability of potential present, even when the interdependence between new entrants to the forensic profession, different types of evidence is very complex. A BN based on their balance of educational approach can also model the strength of connection achievement, skills and experience. As a result, between evidence types and update predictions the society launched its Pre Employment (sometimes referred to as a probabilistic belief) as Assessment of Competence (PEAC) scheme new information becomes available. This is just one this year. The pilot saw 28 forensic science type of statistical model, and their use in general will graduates undergo a range of assessments increase as it becomes impossible to provide the to demonstrate their knowledge and skills in degree of uniqueness traditionally demanded of the realistic case-work scenarios. PEAC is being forensic process by court presentation. An illustrative well received by industry to assist in their example is the case of fingerprints. Historically, recruitment process. fingerprint evidence was not presented with any 167 form of statistical basis, but improvements in the PROFESSIONAL ACCREDITATION understanding of and advancements in statistical The UK forensic science community is models could improve the way such identification now more diverse than ever before, with a evidence is used. mixture of sole traders, small and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs), large multinationals, DIGITAL TRACES and in-house police facilities. The Forensic In conventional forensic science, Edmund Locard’s Science Regulator’s Code of Practice2 specifies principle that every contact leaves a trace is that all organisations providing work for the fundamental to the application of scientific prosecution must be accredited to the relevant techniques to connect physical items together. This ISO standard by 2020. The society is engaged applies equally to the digital world, where at some with practitioners across the sector to develop point there will be a connection that will leave a resources to support them in achieving this digital trace. Everyone casts a digital shadow or goal. footprint though their deliberate or inadvertent By the end of 2015, for example, the CSFS interactions with technology. will have a register of consultants (made up This could be as innocuous a carrying a mobile of its highly experienced members) who will telephone, driving a vehicle, watching a smart TV or be available to assist others with all aspects of surfing the internet – your presence will be left in their accreditation journey, including bespoke some way unless you are extremely tech savvy and support on validation and peer review where make a deliberate intention to block these traces. such expertise is not available internally. Even then, with the right forensic analytical techniques, Throughout 2015–2016, the CSFS is also traces can be found with enough effort. In the future, working with the UK Accreditation Service it might be possible to delve deeper into technology (UKAS) to develop a realistic, proportionate to reveal even more useful information (see case accreditation model suitable for SMEs. These study p172). In this context we should consider how efforts could have wide reaching implications, the forensic examination of these digital traces can be and have an important role to play in used in delivering public safety. ensuring a full and varied forensic provision. The trend towards storing data remotely from SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

mobile and network-based applications is increasing approvals and authority). rapidly. The challenge lies in how to retrieve data It is clear that the availability of information from that is stored in cloud systems and gain a complete open sources such as the internet are becoming picture, as it may be distributed across different increasingly relevant to routine investigations, not geographical locations and jurisdictions. There is just in what is considered as cybercrime. It may a balance to be found between the privacy of well be that a person’s online identity (email or individual’s data and the needs of law enforcement social media profile, for example) will be a more to access data. There is active encouragement reliable source of identity than a physical address or from government for manufacturers to make telephone number. Many people already retain their devices more secure to reduce theft, but this makes email address longer than a physical address. the legitimate interrogation of the devices more While conventional biometrics are challenging. measurements used to uniquely identify a person, The Internet of Things (IoT) will enable a hyper- digital biometrics are those captured through connected world in which devices and objects electronic means. This includes voice, hand interact with each other. The future city will operate geometry (see Chapter 6 case study p68), and in an environment where the physical, digital and keystroke dynamics, along with the well-used face virtual worlds converge, and communicate to and fingerprint biometrics. Many of these are provide information across a range of platforms associated with verifying personal identity, which connected to sensors gathering data. This volume then allows access to a system or physical space; of data will provide a mass of information intended it could also be used as an investigative tool for to make life easier and more efficient, but it also corroboration purposes. offers opportunities for a safer community. In an extreme case, this could involve intelligent sensor IMPACT OF AUTOMATION 168 networks that take advantage of connected real- Advances in robotic technology will allow humans time analysis to monitor for explosive traces in to be removed from a range of forensic processes. public areas such as transport hubs; or automatically These could be repetitive laboratory processes or monitoring changes in the home and reporting hazardous tasks that present problems to human them to a person’s smart phone. This may offer operatives, digital examinations of electronic data or more novel sources of evidence in an investigation. assessments of CBRNE incidents. There are many The smart phone of the future will be very positives in automating some activities, but there are different to that of today. It will evolve into a more downsides: the initial development and outlay costs flexible, longer-lasting device that brings functions can be expensive, and removing humans from the that interface with the IoT, offering rapid access process could lead to a deskilling of the workforce. through the next generations of wireless mobile Although this could actually reduce the costs over connectivity. In-built security could be developed the whole lifecycle of the automation programme, that directly connects the device to the authorised it really depends whether there is sufficient appetite user through a range of digital biometrics, such as to manage the risk of investment. vein identification or heartbeat monitoring. The Other areas to consider are improved phone will develop further into a digital assistant productivity, as machines would be able to work that allows you to control many aspects of life with 24/7 to produce DNA profiles, for example. verbal communication. These digital interactions Unless the whole process of interpretation and will leave an electronic trail that tracks your financial identification is automated, however, the initial interactions, social habits, locations and lifestyle benefits may not be realised. Consistency and habits, all of which could be interrogated and used reliability will be improved by removing humans to investigate criminal activity (subject to the correct from these processes, leading to more accurate

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND APPROACHES TO APPLYING SCIENTIFIC METHODS IN FORENSIC DISCIPLINES CLEARLY OFFER GREAT OPPORTUNITIES, BUT THEY ALSO BRING CHALLENGES. FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES

results that are not subject to any form of cognitive THE FIRST USE OF DNA IN A FORENSIC bias that may influence the decision making process. The use of robotics and automation of CONTEXT IN 1984 REVOLUTIONISED THE hazardous processes will enable a far safer working WAY THAT CRIME WAS INVESTIGATED, environment to be developed. The de-risking of activities deemed too dangerous for human AND HAS PROVED TO BE A MAINSTREAM intervention will mean that hazardous crime-scenes TECHNIQUE WITH THE FORMATION OF – which may not be fully examined today – could in the future be subject to the same recovery of A NATIONAL DATABASE. evidence afforded to less hazardous scenes. One of the areas requiring automation is the management of large volumes of data that cannot be effectively processes using current capabilities. As boundaries of sensitivity have been stretched to we recover and produce greater volumes of data, the point where it becomes increasingly difficult grid computing will become an important way to to separate the sample from the background manage this information. mixture. There needs to be careful consideration that further sensitivity, in its current form, will need CHALLENGES: NEW TECHNOLOGY advanced analytical software to interpret the AND SCIENCES complex information present in a sample to ensure Emerging technologies and approaches to applying that DNA profiling not become counter-productive. scientific methods in forensic disciplines clearly offer great opportunities, but they also bring challenges. CONCLUSION The application of new scientific methods to any The UK has a vibrant science base that has illicit activity will require the courts to accept these generated many advances in science across 169 methods. This will involve a full validation and a range of sectors. It is clear that there is accreditation process to provide reassurance to significant opportunity to consider where there the courts that the technique is fit for purpose and is transferrable science that can be applied in a sufficiently reliable to, in extreme cases, take away forensic context: for example, the medical and a person’s liberty for many years. It is therefore agriscience fields are already very advanced in their essential that the technique is safe, secure and use of Next Generation Sequencing, which the reliable. The evidence threshold for civil courts is forensic community could learn from. There needs lower, but the science should still be valid if it is to to be a mechanism that enables the identification be used. of transferrable science. This could be through The first real breakthrough in applying science to virtual networks of academic institutions or the criminal investigations came in the late 19th century, formation of a dedicated research institute across when fingerprints were used to investigate crime existing capability that considers both digital and on the basis of their uniqueness. This has been traditional forensic future requirements. accepted over the years as a primary identifier, and In terms of the functional challenges, any in the UK we identify roughly 50,000 offenders from significant innovation in forensic science will crime scenes each year using fingerprints. be disruptive to a certain extent. The key is to The first use of DNA in a forensic context in consider the benefits against the disruption, and 1984 revolutionised the way that crime was only then can the decision be made. Any innovation investigated, and has proved to be a mainstream needs to be cost effective in its application, and technique with the formation of a national database. while early adopters of innovation may pave the This required a step change in our approach, which way for others, this can be done in a controlled disrupted business processes, infrastructure manner through structured coordination. This will requirements, cultural acceptance as well as identify all the issues such as affordability, regulatory significantly changing the operating model for forensic constraints, and future-proofing workflow impact, science. But it has brought significant benefits to as well as the wider societal impact such as public public safety, and there are 25,000 DNA matches acceptance and privacy concerns. between crime scenes and offenders each year. The relevant professional community will We are, however, now at a point where the scrutinise any new innovation to critically review SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

CASE STUDY

FORENSICS AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS

ALASTAIR COOK, Director of Critical Insight Security Ltd

he Internet of Things (IoT) mobile had charge in its battery, but had been increasingly connects people remotely wiped by an unknown person using and services to a plethora an app that was supplied with the phone’s of wireless-enabled devices, operating system (see Figure 1). presenting opportunities for both investigators To enable a productive digital forensic analysis, Tand criminals. Appropriate treatment and use of investigators need a high-integrity method data generated by IoT devices could yield crucial to obtain, store, share and analyse the data leads in a complex investigation, and in some associated with these devices, so that they can circumstances it could be the primary source of use this knowledge to infer the sequence of evidence. events that led to the crime. These methods Consider a scenario where three murder could include: victims are found in a park, with signs of a 170 struggle plus a number of items left by at least 1 A trusted framework that allows the data to one other party at the scene. Although some be imported and preserved in its original form, mobile phones were present at the scene, one while also enabling a team of investigators has been intentionally smashed. The second with varying technical skills to interact with it.

Figure 1: Crime scene evidence

Victim B •  Connected heart-rate monitor Victim C Victim A • Unkno wn worn & • Smar t watch, Brand M, • High-fidelity fitness implanted paired GPS enabled device on wrist, Brand X medical devices • Secur ity key worn •  Mobile phone • Embedded devices on finger of the right hand smashed at scene in trainers • No mobile • No mobile

Jacket Holdall •  Wearable device embedded in collar • Embedded device for security and identification • Not activated • Evidence of tampering • Smar tphone in pocket with device with 20% battery remaining FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES

As some of the data may not be immediately “The team found that the 3 victims regularly available – it might be stored in public or shared the same running route. On the day private clouds, for example – this environment of the crime they exhibited elevated signs of must be ‘live’, so that diverse sources of data stress and changed their route 16 minutes into relevant to the investigation can be imported the run. There were indicators of a physically as they become available. intense struggle for the last 3 minutes of the run. A security device on the hand of one victim was 2 At the point of import, any relationships in linked to a car that was infrequently used by the the data should be automatically discovered, victim and some other, subsequently identified, tagged and highlighted to the team. Linked persons linked to the crime. The bag was Data techniques (which allow semantic procured in Europe, and carried a device that a analysis by both machines and investigators) non-UK criminal gang used to track the delivery can be used to generate human and machine- of stolen assets or weapons. The jacket was 171 readable statements about the data and its procured in Antwerp and had been worn in the context. Using terminology and identifiers that UK for 3 weeks prior to the crime. This allowed are recognised by the team, as well as open a possible CCTV image of the wearer to be source or internationally-recognised standards, obtained. It appears that Victim B was followed would significantly increase the utility of the by the wearer of the jacket for 2 days prior to data and draw upon global knowledge in a the crime.” way that is almost impossible with current Such information could routinely enhance methods. investigations if the three highlighted methods can be implemented alongside forensic advances 3 Semi-automated identification of appropriate in other domains. This will allow investigators to analytic techniques could allow niche methods adapt to changes in technology, users’ behaviour to advance the investigation, or associate and criminals’ tactics at a scale that current people and places with the devices. This methods cannot achieve. It should also provide may draw on international data sets or a sound basis for the scientific scrutiny and online services that have greater statistical investigative integrity that should be expected of significance, better reference methodologies all areas of forensics. and more rigorous scrutiny than national or regional teams would be able to achieve. Some of these may not be from the forensics community – they could include online SEMI-AUTOMATED IDENTIFICATION OF medical or personal fitness services, for APPROPRIATE ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES example. COULD ALLOW NICHE METHODS TO This approach could efficiently yield the ADVANCE THE INVESTIGATION, OR following summary of assertions that inform an investigation, and may be of sufficient integrity ASSOCIATE PEOPLE AND PLACES WITH to identify participants in the crime, or even be THE DEVICES. admissible in a criminal prosecution: SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

CASE STUDY

NEXT-GENERATION DIGITAL FORENSICS

GRAHAM BROMELOW, MCM Solutions

hild sexual exploitation and removable USB devices, provide non-technical abuse (CSEA) was reported in investigators with a lightweight portable every UK policing region in 2014 tool that dramatically cuts investigation (ref. 1), and remains a priority in lengths. The most powerful extraction tool police investigations. Digital forensics is at the (a patented capability originally developed as Cheart of investigations into indecent images a military capability) can forensically ‘image’ of children (IIOC), and ‘traditional’ digital a 1TB laptop in under 35 minutes; another data recovery (triage) and analysis tools are ‘military’ tool enables IIOC content to be used throughout UK law enforcement and located on a target computer within a few intelligence agencies. minutes. This offers non-technical investigators The evolution from complex and slow the capability to perform the initial ‘traditional’ forensic tools to next-generation investigations themselves, producing reliable 172 IIOC solutions has allowed investigators to court-admissible results on their own. close the opportunities criminals have to hide Simple-to-use user-interfaces allow the illegal data on their devices. The development non-technical investigator to run a full digital of cutting-edge extraction and analysis tools is acquisition, or effortlessly select granular an iterative one, with constant feedback and search criteria for a ‘sniper forensic’ analysis. consultation from end users and organisations. Unskilled users could potentially damage The challenge is to develop an easy-to-use digital evidence during a traditional triaging and reusable system that handles complexity, process, making it redundant in a court case. can be deployed from on-scene to lab based Now, highly configurable search profiles environments, and rapidly extract or process ensure that such ‘collateral digital intrusion’ is large amounts of data while maintaining eliminated, assisting with compliance and any a high-quality output. Alongside these warranty issues of IIOC investigations. challenges, new technologies are helping to Advanced technologies have simplified overcome barriers such as budget cuts, lack and streamlined the process of analysing of manpower and socio-political reluctance items with evidential value. Despite criminals to arm first responders with forensic skill sets. becoming better at hiding IIOC content, Indeed, the business case for moving to next- innovative technologies can rapidly uncover generation IIOC solutions is a ‘no brainer’: it them with techniques including skin tone and can bring down the costs of prosecuting a face detection (see Chapter 6 case study p68), single case from approximately £40,000 to video frame caching, checking video signatures, less than £1,000. EXIF extraction (file metadata), preconfigured As the amount of IIOC content grows, file signatures, keyword lists, and many more. along with the proliferation of personal Another challenge within digital forensics devices and data storage, both front line is helping to overcome the growing concerns and rapid laboratory-based forensics are from social networking sites, cloud storage, now critical in preserving life and convicting email file sharing, online gaming platforms and criminals while decreasing the length, budgets search engines that digital environments use and backlogs of investigations. New, easy- to store and share CSEA and IIOC content. to–use digital technologies, licenced on Equally as concerning is the expansion of Tor FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES

the validity of the science or technology, in order to determine if the approach is scientifically sound. The end users will review this and assess the outlay costs, business benefits and impact of introducing a disruptive innovation. The legal professionals will consider the use of innovations in the context of the current legislative framework, and decide if it needs to be amended to accommodate such changes. The policymakers will consider the societal impact and the maintenance of public trust in the context of the political environment. The anonymity software, which masks users’ industry approach is critical, in that it must take identities and makes it harder to locate account of all these factors: ultimately, there has IIOC users and distributors. to be a product or service that can be converted Nevertheless, the National Crime Agency from an innovative idea into a marketable recorded1 a decline in open searches to commodity that will generate income. access IIOC, which is now even lower due The introduction of new sciences and to web giants Google, Facebook and Twitter automation to forensic techniques will not remove removing millions of IIOC images from the scientist from the equation. But the forensic the internet in 2015. Analytical tools can scientist of the future will be a very different person now dive deep into hundreds of internet to those of previous years (see case study p166). artefacts, such as instant messaging and chat They will interact with more automated processes, apps, browser history, Facebook and Twitter have a greater understanding of the complexities of feeds to recover and display evidence. large-scale data analytics, and present their findings 173 Our digital evidence is so powerful utilising statistical methodology. This will require a that most people charged with possessing step change to the development programmes that IIOC material plead guilty when shown are building the future forensic scientists. In line with a report detailing what was found on this, the judiciary will need to be far more aware their computers. The judicial system is of the implications of science and technology in also supporting these new capabilities the court room. All of this must operate within an and making changes so that offenders appropriate regulatory framework that maintains are subject to speedier justice. Other the standards required for the delivery of assured technological developments can ensure science. victims of abuse can be identified more The UK has traditionally held a strong position quickly. globally in the field of forensic science, and we need The evolution of computer technology to ensure that this global position is maintained and the internet has undoubtedly led to and enhanced through government support to a growth in the number of of educated academia, industry and the end users of such computer criminals. They are now using a innovations. This can only be done by providing range of anti-forensic techniques and tools an open innovation channel that ensures academic – including cryptography, disk cleaning and research is supported and, where appropriate, file wiping utilities that focus on destroying converted into commercial opportunities that the and altering data – to affect the integrity end user community will buy into. That means of an investigation and the reliability of providing access to test databases that act as evidence in court., Law enforcement and operational environments to provide a far better intelligence agencies will have to face this understanding of the requirements. This applies as growing challenge over the next 5 to 10 much to the civil applications of forensic science as years. it does to the criminal uses. Greater coordination of a tripartite arrangement, focussed on forensic science and technology driven by government policy, will enable the UK to grow both capability and reputation on a national and international basis. SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

CHAPTER 16 ENCOURAGING INNOVATION

GERAINT MORGAN The UK has a strong track record of innovation in forensic science, and its forensic The Open University science providers have a close working relationship with the police. Engaging all of the THOMAS BASSINDALE, partners involved in taking innovations through to market adoption – including academia, Sheffield Hallam industry, end users and government – gives the UK an opportunity to become a global University leader in the forensic science market. The government now has an important role to play MARK PEARSE in helping innovators to bridge the ‘valley of death’ as they seek to turn proof-of-principle LGC techniques into commercial products.

orensic science is a multidisciplinary MAPPING THE INNOVATION field that relies on technologies and LANDSCAPE: FROM CONCEPT TO methodologies from a wide range IMPLEMENTATION of sectors. Although it primarily According to the Crown Prosecution Service’s addresses questions relating to crime, it also (CPS) Code for Crown Prosecutors, evidence Fcovers a wider spectrum of activities such as may only be used in court if the prosecutor consumer and environmental protection, health is satisfied that it is reliable, credible and and safety, the authenticity and provenance of admissible. The high cost and judicial impact goods, and civil proceedings such as breach of of failing to meet these standards means that contract and negligence. Intelligence, gathered any forensic technique must be validated to overtly or covertly, can also predict when crimes a high level, and backed by a strong evidence 174 are about to take place, enabling pre-emptive base, before it is used in criminal investigations. interventions or better evidence-gathering. As That makes the innovation landscape for a result, forensic science makes a significant forensic science more complex, with a diverse contribution to our justice and security systems, range of stakeholders at all points on the ensuring our economic stability. route from concept development through The UK has a strong track record to implementation (see Box 1). Chapter of innovation in this area, including the 17 contains a more detailed look at these development of fingerprinting, and more recently stakeholder groups, and their interactions. DNA profiling. Forensic science provides This complexity and diversity means that innovators with potential opportunities in a no two stakeholders have the same strategic diverse range of disciplines, as well as a truly priorities or pressures, and all have different global market for its scientific and technological perspectives and interpretations about what developments. Moreover, England and Wales forensic science is, and what it can and cannot remain the only countries to have privatised do. Another consequence, not unusual in all of their forensic science services. This has multidisciplinary innovation, is the lack of a created a closeness between the private sector common taxonomy. and police service users that is relatively unique All stakeholders need to engage and compared with the rest of the world. communicate directly with all other members These factors mean that the UK could of the value chain. In particular, the pull from become the best place in the world to the Criminal Justice System (CJS) must not commercialise forensics innovations in the future be lost in the noise. Engagement should take – as long as the right market dynamics can be place in the context of a national strategy, created. In particular, all of the partners involved with universal buy-in. Scientific excellence, in taking proof-of-principle innovations through commercial success and just outcomes will to market adoption – including academia, depend on consistent implementation of industry, end-users and government – need to government strategy, including sufficient funding work together to bridge the ‘valley of death’ that and open communication. Potential mechanisms so often prevents high-technology products from for such engagement are discussed further in realising their commercial potential. the chapter. ENCOURAGING INNOVATION

RISKS, BARRIERS AND CHALLENGES FORENSIC SCIENCE PROVIDES TO INNOVATION In 2014, The Government Chief Scientific Adviser INNOVATORS WITH POTENTIAL has previously said1: OPPORTUNITIES IN A DIVERSE RANGE “Advances in science and technology can yield significant societal benefits and drive economic OF DISCIPLINES. growth. The challenge for society is to channel existing evidence about innovative technologies and their risks to improve decision making in the technology from the laboratory to the area of regulation and policy making.” real world (e.g. degradation of analytical This accurately summarises the cost-benefit performance, in terms of reproducibility and analysis that must be completed before new false positives or false negatives) technologies are applied within the forensic • The sources of financial input at each stage science sector. This poses several challenges for of innovation any innovator or technology developer, who must identify: Courts require that forensic evidence is based • The unmet need within forensic science that can on processes and scientific principles that have provide a suitable return on investment and that very little uncertainty. This inevitably means is compatible with their existing capabilities that there will be some inertia against new • The customers that require and are willing to technologies, due to the serious impacts caused pay for the service or product by the failure of a forensic method. These • The key opinion leaders within the sector that risks can be reduced by ensuring that any will champion the innovation through to its new innovations are compliant with existing eventual implementation standards and best practice, in particular the 175 • The value proposition of providing such a Forensic Science Regulator’s Codes of Practice solution, i.e. what level of investment is required, and Conduct, CPS guidance, and the relevant and how long before a return is achieved legislation. These codes include guidance on the • Who are the main competitors processes to be used for validation, accreditation • The regulatory hurdles prior to implementation and implementation of an innovation, from the • The risks associated with translating the initial research and development phase, followed

Box 1: Forensic science stakeholders in the UK • Academia (e.g. universities) • Funding b odies (e.g. Research Councils UK, Innovate UK, Police Innovation Fund) • F orensic service providers, including larger companies (e.g. LGC Ltd, Key Forensic Services Ltd, Cellmark Forensic Services) and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) • La w enforcement agencies (e.g. Police service, National Crime Agency, Operational Counter Terrorism users) • Go vernment departments (e.g. Home Office, Ministry of Defence) • Regulators (e.g. Forensic Science Regulator) • Guida nce and best-practice providers (e.g. Crown Prosecution Service, College of Policing, National Police Chief Council, Centre for Applied Science and Technology, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, Forensic Science Special Interest Group, European Network Forensic Science Institute) • Accr editation Providers (e.g. UKAS: see Chapter 3 case study p34) • Networking (Chartered Society of Forensic Science, Association of Forensic Science Providers, Forensic Science Special Interest Group, European Network Forensic Science Institute) • End user s (Crown Prosecution Service, Courts, Counter Terrorism and Intelligence) • Journalists • Gener al public, including victims of crime SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

by pilot studies, use on live samples, first CPS and ultimately the innovator. This monetisation case management and its first test in court. could be through the provision of a service The codes also detail how the whole process directly to the customer, or more likely through should be monitored and reviewed. Direct the licensing of the intellectual property to one communication between scientists and end-users of the leading service providers in the sector. in the CJS is key to ensuring that innovation is For any innovation to be widely implemented, it implemented in a timely manner. must either speed up a current methodology or Other potential end-users of forensic satisfy an unmet need; have limited competition; science are the military, counter-terrorism and be successfully transferred from the and intelligence agencies. Their operational controlled environment of the laboratory into needs are likely to be different from those the real world, where it can be used by non- of the courts, and therefore a dialogue with experts. The overall cost of implementing the organisations such as the Defence Science and technology into the forensic workflow will also Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and the Centre need to be minimised to avoid driving up costs for Defence Enterprise (CDE) are essential to to the customer. establish end-user needs and ensure that the It is clear from both case studies in this innovation will be fit for purpose. Forensic tools chapter that securing funding to move from can also be used to determine authenticity in the initial research and development phase areas including clothes, foods or perfumes, which at an academic institution, through to the require liaison with industry and regulatory development of a commercial product, remains bodies. difficult (see case studies on p179 and p181). But the primary customers (and budget Partnerships between academic institutions holders) for most innovations in forensic science and end-users can help to guide innovations 176 are law enforcement agencies or forensic through this development process. Potential service providers (FSPs). Increasingly, police innovators – who may be new to the forces are bringing more forensic services within sector – should be made aware of the their organisations, blurring the lines between wider global markets, and their high esteem themselves and FSPs. The main risk for the law for UK forensic science; as well as existing enforcement agency is that their investment networking opportunities. For example, the results in a procedure that is not suitable for use Forensic Science Special Interest Group (FoSci in the Criminal Justice System. Once again, early SIG) is a community that includes everyone engagement between scientists and the CJS is key. involved in forensic science, and enables For an FSP, there is an additional risk that closer networking and better communication their investment in an innovation does not between all stakeholders for improved research provide a return. That financial return is only and development. FoSci SIG is run by the possible if the innovation is monetised and Knowledge Transfer Network (KTN) and was adopted by a sizeable market, with a proportion set up in July 2012 following a recommendation of the revenue returned to the service provider in June 2011 by the Home Office Chief Scientific Adviser in his review of ‘Research and Development in Forensic Science’. FoSci SIG FOR ANY INNOVATION TO BE WIDELY has an online searchable database of challenges IMPLEMENTED, IT MUST EITHER SPEED in forensic science, which helps to match key questions with innovators’ potential solutions2. UP A CURRENT METHODOLOGY OR SATISFY AN UNMET NEED; HAVE LIMITED TURNING SCIENCE INTO FORENSIC SCIENCE COMPETITION; AND BE SUCCESSFULLY Fundamental ‘blue skies’ research usually TRANSFERRED FROM THE CONTROLLED takes place in universities with the support of research council funding. Some of these ENVIRONMENT OF THE LABORATORY activities will result in capabilities that may be of INTO THE REAL WORLD. benefit to forensic science. The challenge for the community is in identifying those projects, ENCOURAGING INNOVATION

ACADEMIC RESEARCHERS NEED TO HAVE A CLEAR UNDERSTANDING OF THE REALITIES OF THE END-USER NEEDS AND ENVIRONMENT, WHICH CAN ONLY BE GAINED THROUGH INTERACTION WITH AN END-USER, AND IDEALLY WITH THE WIDER STAKEHOLDER COMMUNITY.

especially when the innovation is initially applied funding from agencies such as Innovate UK. The in a different discipline. Network+ schemes being organised by the If the project is more applied, then the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) academic researchers need to have a clear and the Engineering and Physical Sciences understanding of the realities of the end-user Research Council (EPSRC) provide such funding, needs and environment, which can only be but the field also needs a forensic science gained through interaction with an end-user, and champion for these schemes, with a proven ideally with the wider stakeholder community. track record of engaging with the other key Increasingly, the importance of applied research stakeholders in the sector. is being acknowledged within universities and the Any intellectual property generated by this research councils. All research council proposals research could be exploited in two ways. It could must demonstrate ‘Pathways to Impact’, including be licensed to an FSP or commercial organisation, how researchers will communicate, engage and which would then develop the product and take it collaborate with stakeholders and potential to market, eventually providing a revenue stream beneficiaries of the research. to the university. Alternatively, the academics There is also a growing expectation within involved could form a spin-out company to further 177 universities that research should be translated, develop their value proposition, with a view with any revenue generated being returned to either providing a service directly or exiting to the university. This strategy is further through a trade sale. encouraged through the Quality Related- Very few academics choose the latter Business Research Element (QR-BRE) funding option. But those who do take this brave from the Higher Education Funding Councils of step need financial support and mentoring. both England and Wales, and by the fact that Incubation centres such as the STFC/European an assessment of impact now makes up 20% Space Agency Business Incubation Centre in of the Research Excellence Framework, and Harwell, and the associated funding available therefore directly influences future mainstream from Innovate UK through the Harwell Space Quality Related (QR) research funding in all UK Launchpads, offer an excellent model of how universities. start-up companies can develop if they have However, it should also be acknowledged a funding roadmap to facilitate growth and to that the current requirement for an academic support it in securing investment capital. to achieve traditional ‘outputs’ for their research The Security Innovation and Demonstration (80% weighting) is also a barrier to investing Centre (SIDC)3, launched by the Home Office in time in activities such as validation, which may 2014, could provide another important incubation not be publishable in peer-reviewed journals facility for forensic science. As an open innovation but is crucial for the end-stage of adoption of a centre focused on security challenges, it will technology. enable innovators to access end users and their To help these applied projects, it is important environments for rapid real-world evaluation that the sector establishes and supports of new concepts, using a shared laboratory and events that actively engage all stakeholders and demonstration space hosted at the Home Office’s generate opportunities for networking; offers Centre for Applied Science & Technology (CAST). funding for proof-of-principle studies and/or staff The SIDC aims to support start-ups through exchanges; and provides commercial training on links to mentors and investors, thereby de-risking how to develop an initial idea into a business the introduction of new technologies. It will also plan, so that innovators can attract follow-on host demonstrations to overseas delegations to SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

INNOVATION IS NOT JUST ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE UK IN A GROWING MARKET MAKING BREAKTHROUGHS OR Some police services are now approaching DEVELOPING A NOVEL INVENTION. universities to undertake research projects on their behalf. Regional meetings (e.g. in Yorkshire INCREMENTAL INNOVATIONS ARE and the Humber) have allowed universities FAR MORE COMMON, AND RESULT to present their capabilities and the possible analytical tools they have available, and for the IN IMPROVED PERFORMANCE FOR police to present the problems they would like EXISTING TECHNOLOGIES. to investigate. A simple summary of what police services typically require is: “What we do now, but quicker and on site, please”. As part of its remit to enable closer support UK security exports. networking and better communication More established companies typically decide between forensic science stakeholders, the whether to develop a new technology based FoSci SIG promotes an annual networking on an assessment of strategic need, and the event called the Forensic Science Technology potential return on their investment. A purely Showcase. The aim is to bring together commercial environment, where market funders and potential buyers so that forces alone drive the agenda, may hamper innovators can showcase new technologies, in further development of an existing technique order to help them find a market4. for several reasons. Some companies may be Innovators can also make these unwilling to invest in a new ‘market leading’ connections through the Chartered Society 178 technology if the legal process requires that the of Forensic Sciences, which has members methodology is disclosed, thus allowing other from all aspects of forensic practice, crime companies to develop rival products. Or they scene investigation, policing, military, medical, may wish to only employ members of staff who dentistry and legal professions5. It offers directly provide services (and therefore bring continuing professional development (CPD), in income). As a consequence of these factors, scientific meetings (with CPD points), in the future most commercial companies may qualifications, social and networking events, not have dedicated research and development professional recognition and scholarships. The departments to bring through innovative new society also provides an accreditation system technologies or methods. for academic institutions that deliver forensic But innovation is not just about making science undergraduate and postgraduate breakthroughs or developing a novel invention. courses (see Chapter 2 case study p30). Incremental innovations are far more common, The Association of Forensic Service and result in improved performance for existing Providers (ASFP) could also play an important technologies. They may offer better accuracy role. It is an independent, representative body or precision, lower the limit of detection, or that seeks to facilitate the effective delivery improve reproducibility; or they can increase of justice and promote public confidence in the throughput of an analytical process, or forensic science6. The AFSP was constituted reduce costs. One recent example is the on 1 July 2010 with a mission to represent availability of commercial robotic auto-samplers the common views of the providers of that interface with gas chromatography-mass independent (i.e. non-police) forensic science spectrometers, which now enable the majority within the UK and Ireland, while maintaining of sample preparation and analysis to be and developing best-practice in forensic performed automatically, without the need for science and providing expert opinion in skilled human intervention. However, the source support of the justice system, from scene to of funding for such incremental developments court. As such, it could act as a single voice remains an open question, especially as one for FSPs in the UK and Ireland, help to share moves further away from the market and the international best practice, and promote level of risk increases for the innovator. global market opportunities. ENCOURAGING INNOVATION

CASE STUDY

INNOVATE UK AND THE FORENSIC SCIENCE SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP

MEEZ ISLAM, Teesside University

lood represents one of the most frequently encountered and useful THERE IS A NEED FOR A MORE types of physical evidence found at RELIABLE MEANS OF DETECTING violent crime scenes. Investigators AND IDENTIFYING BLOOD STAINS AT typically identify the presence of blood by using B‘presumptive tests’: these indicate whether CRIME SCENES OR FROM RECOVERED a substance is likely to be blood, but do not EVIDENCE, IN A NON-CONTACT, offer absolute proof. Current methods such as the Kastle-Meyer test, the leuco-malachite NON-DESTRUCTIVE MANNER. green test, and the luminol test, all use indicator 179 chemicals that either change colour or glow when exposed to haemoglobin. Although these tests are useful in many and Technology Showcase events have allowed circumstances, they are also subject to false us to demonstrate our instrument to relevant positives (i.e. they can indicate blood when end users in the police service, as well as none is actually present) and they may also forensic service providers. This has allowed us to detrimentally affect subsequent DNA tests. make useful contacts and get valuable feedback There is consequently a need for a more reliable on our prototype. means of detecting and identifying blood stains FORSIG highlighted relevant funding calls at crime scenes or from recovered evidence, in and was instrumental in pushing for a relevant a non-contact, non-destructive manner. Recent Small Business Research Initiative (SBRI) phase research by my group at Teesside University has 1 funding call from the Home Office. They investigated the potential of visible-wavelength provided advice which allowed us to make a hyperspectral imaging, which can identify the successful bid for proof-of-concept funding from spectral signature of haemoglobin in blood, with that call, which has led to further development high specificity and sensitivity. Using a prototype of our prototype. instrument, we have obtained promising FORSIG also suggested that we set up a preliminary results showing that hyperspectral spin-out company to help commercialise our imaging can detect and identify both visible and technology. Consequently, we have recently latent blood stains on a range of backgrounds1. founded Chemicam Ltd, which currently consists Since obtaining our initial results, we have of five partners and which aims to develop faced a number of challenges in disseminating a commercial blood detection instrument. our results to the police service and forensic Significant challenges remain before we laboratories; making contact with potential end commercialise the technology – we are looking users; and in obtaining funding to develop our for more funding, and need to clear various prototype. Fortunately we have received support regulatory hurdles, for example – but Innovate from Innovate UK, through its Forensic Science UK and FORSIG have clearly helped us to get Special Interest Group (FORSIG). Its meetings closer to that goal. SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

THE LIMITED SIZE OF THE FORENSIC THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT The government has an important role to play SCIENCE MARKET IN ANY ONE COUNTRY in helping forensic science innovation to thrive MEANS THAT INNOVATORS AND SERVICE in the UK. Its CAST and SIDC can help to bring innovations through to market-readiness. And PROVIDERS MUST ALSO CONSIDER the Home Office is currently establishing a OPPORTUNITIES AND NEEDS IN THE National Strategy for Forensic Science that will provide direction on the future opportunities GLOBAL FORENSIC SCIENCE MARKET. for innovation, taking into consideration all members of the stakeholder community. In developing this, the Home Office may wish to explore how the UK healthcare sector has The main growth market for UK forensics is recently addressed the issue of clinical innovation likely to be in: and adoption. The NHS Five Year Forward • Digital forensics: Many crime investigations View sets out additional steps that the NHS now involve mobile phones (tracking will take to accelerate innovation to find better someone’s whereabouts, for example, or video ways of delivering health and care. This strategy evidence of an incident); or crime committed includes the establishment of fifteen regional through the internet (see Chapters 7 and 15). Academic Health Science Networks (AHSN), a These all need better approaches to retrieving similar number of Clinical Research Networks and analysing electronic data. (CRNs) and the recent global call for the • Rapid Identification of Offenders:The establishment of five ‘test beds’ that will receive Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) national support for implementing high-potential 180 Live-time Forensics strategy aims to speed innovations that respond to local clinical needs. up the identification of offenders by using Each of the AHSNs has been given significant innovations such as RapidHIT DNA or funding and a five-year license from NHS paraDNA analysis. England to “facilitate the adoption of innovative practices, products and services at scale and But the limited size of the forensic science more quickly than has previously been achieved market in any one country means that innovators in the NHS”. and service providers must also consider The NHS has also recognised that “too often, opportunities and needs in the global forensic new technologies have been tested alone, in science market. Potential routes for innovators to isolation from complementary innovations in access overseas markets, in addition to the above how NHS services are delivered, limiting the named organisations, include: value they produce”. AHSN, CRNs and test beds • The Science and Innovation network, funded are seen as the mechanism by which this can by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office be addressed, and similar bodies could have a and the Department for Business, Innovation positive impact on forensic science. and Skills A national strategy for the sector is essential, • Innovate UK along with appropriate funding. That strategy • UK Trade and Investment should include mechanisms for academia, • Other UK government departments – such as industry, customers, end-user communities and Ministry of Defence – that share best practice the government to engage and communicate with other nations more effectively, to ensure that innovations • European Network of Forensic are fit-for-purpose and that CJS requirements Science Institutes are not over interpreted, potentially stifling • Horizon 2020 Secure Societies programme, innovation. which includes calls in ‘big data’ analysis; in situ forensic tools for the crime scene; remote control technologies for monitoring and examining scenes; internet forensics; ‘stand-off’ body scanning ENCOURAGING INNOVATION

CASE STUDY

BIOSENSORS IN FORENSICS

BARBARA DANIEL, Head of Forensic Science Unit, King’s College London

n January 2006, our group at King’s OUR TECHNOLOGY COULD RESULT IN College London (KCL) was awarded a £178,613 research grant from the Engi- A FIFTY-FOLD REDUCTION IN THE TIME neering and Physical Sciences Research AND EXPENSE SPENT ON ROUTINE Council (EPSRC) under its ‘Think Crime’ funding Iprogramme. Our research proposal had been BIOLOGICAL SEARCH METHODS. prompted by a discussion with the Director of Forensic Services at the Metropolitan Police Service (FS-MPS), who asked whether it was possible to detect a 5-microlitre blood spot been resolved much more quickly if a better somewhere on a black tracksuit. Quite a chal- method for the detection of body fluids was lenge – but one we thought we could over- available. In the case of Stephen Lawrence, a come by using fluorescently-labelled antibodies minute trace of blood was missed and only that would bind specifically to red blood cell discovered after many years, following hours of surface antigens. painstaking searching by an exceptional forensic The major problem, in this forensic context, scientist. Meanwhile, the blood spot missed 181 was how to get rid of any antibodies not on the shoe of Damilola Taylor’s assailant was specifically bound to the blood on the tracksuit. attributed to human error. We came up with the idea of attaching the Our technology could result in a fifty-fold antibodies to magnetic nanoparticles and reduction in the time and expense spent on removing the excess with a magnet, a method routine biological search methods. In light that worked surprisingly well, even on fabrics. of these advantages for policing, the Police In 2009, we applied for follow-on funding to Innovation Fund awarded a grant to the FS- develop the technology, but it was deemed to MPS and KCL in August 2014 to develop this be too far away from the market to be eligible. method. The results are promising1, and we We then fell into a gap where the research was are currently seeking industrial partners to fully either ‘not innovative enough’ or ‘too far from develop the technique. the market’. This illustrates an all-too-common Biosensors rely on substrate-specific difficulty in bringing forensic science techniques recognition moieties (similar to antibodies) from the laboratory into routine use. capable of working efficiently within a mixture, We continued to work on the problem, without cross-reacting or giving false-positive with the cost of consumables covered by results. They must also be able to perform the FS-MPS. This resulted in some positive under the many and varied conditions proof-of-concept work in the development encountered in forensic investigations. of biosensors for the detection of body fluids Developing these moieties is essential but in a forensic context, and formed the basis time-consuming, and is therefore particularly of an application for funding to the EPSRC vulnerable to falling into the ‘funding gap’ well in 2013. This application was unsuccessful, known to researchers. after a reviewer from the forensic community Fundamental research may be high risk reported that new technology would have little and complex, but is important for the impact on forensic science because existing forensic community and funding bodies to methods for body fluid detection are available recognise that it is vital to the implementation and effective. of revolutionary approaches to forensic Yet two very high profile cases would have investigation. SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

CHAPTER 17 ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET

MARK LITTLEWOOD, Although the UK market for forensic science is small and declining, the global co-ordinator of the market continues to grow and expand into new areas of science. The UK Forensic Science Special should maintain its current high standing in the traditional forensic disciplines, Interest Group; while seeking opportunities to access overseas markets and developing new GILLIAN TULLY, Forensic expertise in emerging areas such as digital forensics. Science Regulator

his chapter examines the forensic million, the Home Office indicating £70 million science sector as a new market, to £80 million, and the Association of Chief and offers insights into some Police Officers (ACPO – now called the of the key considerations of National Police Chiefs’ Council) £63million to bringing a new technology into the Criminal £70 million. Various explanations for this decline TJustice System (CJS). It describes the size and have been offered, including disproportionate growth rate of the sector, potential areas for cuts to forensics compared with other police knowledge transfer, the processes involved and work; lower crime rates resulting in a reduced how to interact with key stakeholders, ethical demand for forensic services; and a reduction in 3 182 considerations and resources to facilitate market costs due to technological advances . Previous entry. This chapter draws extensively on, and attempts at estimating the size of the in-house uses updated sections from ‘Taking Forensic market have proved inconclusive4. Science R&D to Market’1, a report by Gillian The global market has been predicted Tully and Kevin Sullivan that was published by to grow at a compound annual growth rate the Forensic Science Special Interest Group (CAGR) of 8.34% between 2014-2019 (ref. (FoSci SIG) in 2013. It offers a much more 5) to reach $17.7 billion6, with developed comprehensive view of what is involved in countries accounting for more than 50% of the bringing a new technology to market. total market. However, automated processing is likely to force down the costs of standardised MAPPING THE FORENSIC MARKET tests, reducing the total spent on forensic The forensic market can be divided into two technologies in these regions. This, combined sectors: traditional forensics and digital forensics. with increased investment in infrastructure, modern equipment, DNA databases etc in 1. Traditional forensics developing countries, will see the Asia-Pacific Forensic science provision in the UK is and other regions outside North America fragmented, making it difficult to estimate the and Europe accounting for 60% of the global current size of the market. This, combined with forensic science market in the future6. differing approaches across the world, mean that The forensic technologies market has been a global figure is even more elusive. The forensic segmenting into 4 broad categories6: science market is further complicated by the • DNA Profiling split between external and in-house work such • Biometrics / fingerprint analysis as scene of crime analysis and fingerprinting. • Chemical analysis (drugs / explosives / The UK’s external market was predicted to fall toxicology) from £170 million to £110 million between • Firearms identification and analysis 2009 and 2015 (ref. 2). However, more recent estimates have been more pessimistic, with Of these, DNA profiling and chemical analysis the largest forensic service providers indicating typically account for the vast majority of the a 2015 market value of £70 million to £100 market (see Figure 1). ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET

Figure 1: North American forensic technologies market 2011-2019, by services (USD Million)6. Data for the UK and rest of the world are not currently available.

DNA Profiling Controlled Substances/Drugs, Toxicology, Trace Evidence Biometrics/Fingerprints Firearms/Toolmarks Other Forensic Requests

2,495

1, 846

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: KOL Opinions, Expert Interviews, Press Releases and TMR Analysis

2. Digital forensics the global market continues to grow and The data above do not include the field of expand into new areas of science. The UK digital forensics, which is becoming an ever should maintain its current high standing in more significant part of forensic investigations. the traditional forensic disciplines, seeking 183 The use of smart phones and tablet computers opportunities to access overseas markets while is growing exponentially, and along with developing new expertise in emerging areas technologies such as smart home and smart such as digital forensics. vehicle systems they generate and contain masses of data, which can be used to investigate PROCESS STEPS NEEDED TO BRING a suspect. A NEW TECHNOLOGY TO MARKET Forensic specialists face huge difficulties in this The Criminal Justice System (CJS) has area, considering: requirements that must be met before a • The number of devices that could be new technology will be adopted by the associated with a single suspect police service, courts and other stakeholders. • The number of different devices on the market, Technologies not only need to produce which would each require a protocol to admissible evidence, they also need to be analyse their contents accepted as being credible. To demonstrate • Operating systems with different encryption, credibility, technologies need to be fully validated each having regular updates that could change and documented to allow the potential for all the analysis protocols development materials to be reviewed in future • The globalised nature of the digital world: these court cases. devices are probably manufactured overseas, which may make it more difficult to seek 1. Key stakeholders and how to interact support for them with them In order to more effectively target limited Thus, greater resource is likely to be put into R&D funding, constructive dialogue between digital forensics in the future. This might grow innovators, end users and stakeholders is the total forensic market, or could take financial required. The nature and timing of dialogue will resources away from traditional forensic vary depending on the drivers for the research, disciplines. its strategic importance and its distance from In summary, the UK market for forensic market. For example, if research is required science is small and declining. However, to build strategic capability, the Forensic Policy SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

Group should provide appropriate leadership. College of Policing (CoP) Conversely, fundamental academic research • Priorities: As the professional body for is required in all disciplines to generate the policing, the CoP partnered with the knowledge and understanding that is essential Economic and Social Research Council for a new generation of ideas for forensic (ESRC) to establish the What Works Centre applications to emerge. This fundamental for Crime Reduction, funding academic research should not be constrained by current research into crime reduction7 needs for policing or defence, and needs no • Pressures: Looking to establish an evidence- approval from forensic science stakeholders. based profession with tight budgets; forensic Whatever the nature of the innovation, science is a very small part of the CoP’s remit continuing end-user input is required throughout the development cycle. Key requirements of Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) and the dialogue between innovators, end users and Courts stakeholders include: • Priorities: All researchers in this field should • Shared set of values based on supporting open be familiar with the Code for Crown justice and enhancing public safety Prosecutors8 – novel scientific methods • Segregation of market engagement from sales will need to pass the tests within the code. and marketing or procurement activity, to Researchers also need to know the principles ensure that: of case management9 and streamlined • end users have no commitment to buy at forensic reporting (SFR)10, to ensure that market engagement stage any methods they develop are tailored to • the same information is made available to the process; CPS guidance to summarise all groups innovating in the same field requirements for FSPs should be followed11 184 • the innovators’ intellectual property is • Pressures: CPS restructuring and reductions respected in resource. • Understanding the strategic and operational priorities of, and the pressures on, all parties, Defence Science & Technology Laboratory both public and commercial sector (see below (dstl) for examples). • Priorities: “To maximise the impact of science and technology for the defence and security 2. Stakeholder landscape, priorities and of the UK”12. Dstl manages the roughly pressures £400 million Defence Science & Technology No two stakeholders have the same strategic Programme, outsourcing where possible priorities or pressures, so to aid effective to industry and academia (about 60%) and communication a brief summary is given below. internally providing capability for chemical and biological defence, counter-terrorism Academia and counter-insurgency, as well as analysis for • Priorities: High-quality and high-impact evidence-based decision making publications are required for the Research • Pressures: Dstl is facing challenges from the Excellence Framework; fundamental research ongoing efficiencies and streamlining within as well as applied research is critical the Ministry of Defence, central government • Pressures: Funding environment is very and the wider public sector; there are challenging; university business development challenges in coping with cuts while demand offices keen to commercialise research remains strong

Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences Forensic Service Provider (FSPs) • Priorities: Accrediting university courses, • Priorities: Quicker, cheaper, more working to promote links between academic discriminating, more automated tests that researchers, liaising with funding councils can offer a competitive advantage • Pressures: Rapid expansion of forensic science • Pressures: Intense competition, reduced degree courses (see Chapter 2, case study margins, and demand for faster results have all p30), changing forensic science landscape increased companies’ need to show a return ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET

CASE STUDY

BRINGING A FORENSIC PRODUCT TO MARKET

MICHAEL HEFFERNAN KIM SANDQUIST PETER SCHAD JOHN OWEN CEO of ArroGen CSO Chemistry CSO Biology Managing Director

he UK’s forensic science marketplace challenge to bring the technique to market. has undergone major changes Companies such as ours first need to identify in recent years, and presents customers’ requirements for the technique, and a challenging environment for understand their differing requirements around companies. The market has been commoditised the world. That requires us to spend sizeable sums Tunder the National Forensic Framework, with on running and attending numerous specialist forensic companies competitively tendering for conferences, and gathering feedback from police individual ‘lots’ of work. Each lot comprises a forces and other law enforcement agencies. In number of very specific ‘products’ with associated this respect, ArroGen has benefitted from having ‘service specifications’. operations in the United States as well as the UK. But financial cuts have placed significant pressure The technology must then be tailored to on police budgets, causing the police service to meet customers’ needs. In our case, ArroGen has 185 dictate which scientific tests are carried out rather developed FMID Crime Scene and FMID Slide kits, than working with forensic scientists to develop taking into account the standard fingerprint and the most appropriate strategy for the case. There DNA requirements. is pressure to carry out the minimum amount Forensic technology providers also need to of work, with less interpretation of the findings validate their techniques in each of the countries in the context of the case. This is compounded where they will be used. Our FMID system went by the police’s drive to deliver work in-house. through initial proof-of-concept studies, followed Consequently, developing a new technique and by validation on fingerprints left by volunteers (an then bringing a new service to market – with all of exercise that requires careful consideration of all the associated validation and accreditation costs – the legal implications involved). We are now field- entails significant resource and expenditure, and a testing the technique within a true crime scene not inconsiderable amount of commercial risk. environment. Meanwhile, a decline in the use of traditional The UK forensic market has seen a welcome evidence types – such as fibres, paint and glass focus on accreditation, the final step for any – along with a growing reliance on DNA and forensic product. We hope that FMID will achieve fingerprints, has focused companies’ research and that by demonstrating appropriate peer review and development budgets on new, innovative services suitability for evidential use in the Criminal Justice that will give them a commercial edge and generate System. Meanwhile, the company is preparing financial returns. for service delivery; we have developed a pricing For example, ArroGen has developed a model and e-commerce site; instrumentation is technique called Fingerprint Molecular Identification in place; and new staff have been recruited and (FMID) that relies on mass spectrometry to trained. provide a molecular profile of latent fingerprints Our work on FMID illustrates the considerable at a crime scene. This allows investigators to effort involved in bringing a new forensic combine latent fingerprint examination with product to market, but we believe that it offers chemical analysis, which can potentially identify illicit real potential to provide valuable intelligence drugs, medications and their metabolites, gender, and corroborative evidence to support law explosives and more. It has, however, been a enforcement agencies and the courts. SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

on investment, while reducing the emphasis e.g. by crossing over to security and counter- on R&D Delays in implementation have a terrorism markets or medical markets. Funding major impact on business to bridge the gap from academic work is often required Forensic Science Regulator (FSR) • Pressures: The global downturn means that • Priorities: Validation must conform to standards access to capital for investment has been within Codes of Conduct and Practice; for a limited. Requirement to show a return on completely new field, quality standards will investment. Delays in implementation have a need to be defined major impact on business • Pressures: Rapidly changing and fragmented forensic science landscape National Crime Agency (NCA) • Priorities: The NCA’s goal is to tackle serious Funding Bodies and organised crime, using a combination of • Priorities: The UK’s seven Research Councils approaches such as: traditional law enforcement fund academic research judged to be methods; gathering high-quality intelligence to excellent, and which has an impact on the know where, when and how to strike with best growth, prosperity and wellbeing of the UK. effect; monitoring serious career criminals and A variety of mechanisms are used, including confiscating criminals’ assets support for international collaborations, • Pressures: Delivering operational priorities; support for academic career development disruption of criminal markets; systematic and development of scientific infrastructure. management of persons of interest involved Innovate UK seeks to promote UK innovation in organised crime; and delivery of more law and hence economic growth enforcement activity against more organised 186 • Pressures: Maximising the impact of research criminals funding is increasingly important, and partnerships between funding organisations Police such as the Research Councils, Innovate • Priorities: At the highest level, the police UK, the UK’s Higher Education Funding service’s goal is to improve public safety, so it Councils, business, government, and charitable wants to know how science can make people organisations have been established. safer; and when things do go wrong, how can it help to identify offenders and bring them to Home Office justice? • Priorities: The Home Office is committed • Pressures: intense budgetary pressure; new to producing a forensic science strategy by Policing and Crime Commissioners; police the end of 2015, in which 5 areas have been reform; reform of the NPCC; closure of the considered: legitimacy, market/supply chain, National Policing Improvement Agency and digital forensics, forensic futures, skills and establishment of the CoP knowledge • Pressures: Closures of the Forensic Science Operational counter-terrorism (CT) users Service (FSS) and National Policing • Priorities: The government has laid out its Improvement Agency (NPIA); National DNA counter-terrorism strategy in CONTEST13 Database (NDNAD) now within Home Office • The strategy is based on four areas of work: Science; public sector spending cuts; reduction • Pursue: to stop terrorist attacks in spending on forensic science; criticism from • Prevent: to stop people becoming House of Commons Science and Technology terrorists and supporting terrorism Committee. • Protect: to strengthen our protection against a terrorist attack Industry • Prepare: to mitigate the impact of a • Priorities: The UK is a small and decreasing part terrorist attack of a relatively small global market in forensic science. Ideally, technology needs to feed more Forensic science has a significant part to play in than one market to increase attractiveness much of that strategy. ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET

3. Ethical considerations THE FORENSIC SCIENCE MARKET IS Use of forensic science is governed by the state of the science, the legislative framework, the MORE COMPLICATED THAN OTHER policy framework (including funding), interaction SECTORS BECAUSE THERE IS A LARGE with society (including civil society groups) and commercial actors. NUMBER OF STAKEHOLDERS TO INTERACT WITH; A NEED TO TEST A This happens at two levels: • Sites of operation: where forensic science is TECHNOLOGY IN BOTH RESEARCH applied (labs, crime scenes etc) and developed AND REAL-WORLD SCENARIOS; within a case, involving interaction between many players DOCUMENTATION AND VALIDATION • Sites of deliberation: where legislative and PROCESSES; AND ETHICAL QUESTIONS policy decisions are made TO CONSIDER. Social and ethical decisions arise at both levels. Ethical oversight is essentially a collaborative process, shaped by all participants in forensic grow the UK economy”. As discussed above, science. Historically, ethical considerations in forensic science is a relatively small market, and forensic science have lagged far behind ethical therefore not a priority for Innovate UK funding. considerations in medical research. A lag in public Nonetheless, there are options where funding engagement and debate has arguably contributed can be applied to the forensic sciences, as to challenges at the European Court of Human discussed below. 14, Rights resulting in policy changes regarding the 187 retention of samples and data on the National 1. Research Council funding DNA Database. It is therefore important that Academic institutions and some independent innovators in the forensic science field ensure research organisations are eligible. Beacuse the that the social and ethical issues arising from their employment of specialist staff or staff exchanges work are highlighted and debated (see ref. 1 for a between organisations are eligible as costs for more extensive review of ethical considerations). realizing the impact of research, academics In summary, the forensic science market is applying for funding should consider at the more complicated than other sectors because outset whether to budget for forensic scientist, there is a large number of stakeholders to police or other end-user input in their ‘Pathways interact with; a need to test a technology to Impact’ proposal. in both research and real-world scenarios; documentation and validation processes; and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences ethical questions to consider. Research Council (BBSRC) The BBSRC’s strategic priorities are food RESOURCES TO FACILITATE MARKET security, industrial biotechnology and bioscience ENTRY underpinning health. Grant proposals in Due to the diverse range of technologies that responsive mode will have an advantage if might offer solutions to the forensic sciences, the they address one of these priorities, although funding landscape in this area is fragmented. The research excellence remains the overriding majority of academic funding is provided through priority. the UK Research Councils (RCUK), as detailed The BBSRC also prioritises building below. However, RCUK’s main remit is to fund partnerships: proposals that include ‘blue skies’ research, whereas forensics is a more collaborative research with users, research to applied science. Similarly, most UK funding for inform public policy or increased international businesses goes through Innovate UK, whose collaboration would be well suited to forensic main remit is to “work with people, companies science. Schemes for new academics may also and partner organisations to find and drive the be of value for forensic scientists commencing science and technology innovations that will an academic career. SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

CASE STUDY

CYBER SCIENCE AND CONSUMER INTELLIGENCE

STEPHEN HAY, Director, Pilot Lite Ventures

he work of Lancaster University is separate company, Relative Insight Limited, was a prime example of how forensic spun out from the university to commercialise science research can be exploited this work. While it continues to operate with to contribute to the UK economy law enforcement, it has adapted the technology in numerous ways. The Security Lancaster re- for use in a marketing context, turning language Tsearch centre, one of the UK’s Academic Centres into data to give brands valuable intelligence on of Excellence in Cyber Security Research, has consumers and competitors. Relative Insight’s pioneered a new field in online child protection platform allows efficient analysis of a brand’s called Digital Persona Analysis (DPA). messages, and the language that people use to DPA was developed over a decade and is talk about them. This offers insights into overall the product of interdisciplinary research that consumer attitudes toward brands, as well as how combines computer and behavioural science with those attitudes shift over time, allowing brands to 188 linguistics – it has already delivered significant accelerate their research, develop better-informed impact in the fields of law enforcement, education marketing strategies, and measure campaign and internet governance. It automates the process success. of detecting sexual predators online by using Relative Insight Limited is currently undergoing comparative language algorithms. DPA analyses its third venture capital funding round having large amounts of data to identify and report received earlier backing from the North West individual personas and behaviours of concern. Fund for Venture Capital, Lancashire’s Rosebud It relies on a system known as the Isis Toolkit, Fund, and other investors. In a little over a year it developed to detect criminals who hide behind has developed a blue-chip client list, working with multiple identities (often adults posing as children). corporations such as Microsoft, Unilever, Twitter Live trials have been carried out with various and many of the world’s leading advertising UK police forces, and separate evaluations have agencies. The world-class marketing department shown that the Isis Toolkit can detect with 94% at Lancaster University also helped to develop accuracy an adult masquerading as a child. this client base by introducing Relative Insight to a The initial research was funded by grants number of key agencies and brands. In return, the from the Engineering and Physical Sciences company contributes to marketing courses run Research Council (EPSRC) and the Economic by the university and is already recruiting from its and Social Research Council (ESRC). In 2012 a student pool as the business expands. The development and exploitation of DPA highlights the significant commercial value THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPLOITATION that can be created by the translational and OF DPA HIGHLIGHTS THE SIGNIFICANT multidisciplinary approach inherent to forensic science. In commercial terms, forensics is the COMMERCIAL VALUE THAT CAN BE science of identification, and the market for its CREATED BY THE TRANSLATIONAL AND applications will grow rapidly with increasing demand for more effective solutions to the MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH challenges posed by such issues as terrorism, INHERENT TO FORENSIC SCIENCE. food contamination, counterfeiting and data management and security. ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research • Helps create successful new products, Council (EPSRC) processes and services EPSRC has a number of highly relevant themes for forensic science research, including: Feasibility Studies • Digital economy • A single-company or collaborative R&D grant • Engineering scheme • Global uncertainties, including cybersecurity, • Lets businesses investigate the technical disasters and emergencies, CBRN proliferation, feasibility of a new idea terrorism, threats to infrastructure and • Winners showcase and share their ideas at transnational organised crime Collaboration Nation events (see Chapter 16, • Healthcare technologies case study on p179) • ICT • Mathematical sciences Innovation vouchers • Physical sciences • Encourage businesses to look outside their network for new knowledge Economic and Social Research Council • Available for UK start-ups and small- and (ESRC) medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) ESRC’s strategic priorities are: • A £6 million fund to help stimulate innovation • Economic performance and sustainable growth where few businesses invest. One of the • Influencing behaviour and informing current priority areas for innovation vouchers interventions is cybersecurity • A vibrant and fair society Knowledge Transfer Partnerships (KTPs) Innovative, high-quality collaborative proposals • KTPs let businesses work in partnership with 189 between social scientists and physical scientists academic institutions may find cross-research council funding. • This allows businesses to access knowledge, technology and skills Medical Research Council (MRC) Although medical research may be peripheral Small Business Research Initiative (SBRI) to forensic science, areas such as understanding • Uses the power of government procurement the genetic determinants of complex traits, or to drive innovation major genetic studies, have potential forensic • Lets companies engage with the public sector applications. Collaborative research may be to solve problems able to demonstrate impact in both health and • 100% of the funding is provided through a forensic applications. contract not a grant

Natural and Environmental Research Smart Council (NERC) • Funding for innovation projects in high-growth- Niche areas such as development of methods potential SMEs to detect crime against endangered species may • Grants let you assess the commercial viability find funding through NERC of a project • Smart funding is available to single companies 2. Innovate UK Innovate UK’s funding is aimed at industry, 3. Horizon 2020 particularly SMEs, although precise eligibility Horizon 2020 is the funding mechanism to differs between schemes. realise the EU’s Europe 2020 goals. It is open to companies, research organisations, academic Collaborative R&D institutions or individuals in EU member states, Encourages businesses and researchers to work associated countries, EU candidate countries together on innovation and selected other countries. Innovate UK • Co-funds partnerships between businesses, coordinates all Horizon 2020 activity in the UK. and business and academia Horizon 2020 aims to ensure that more good SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE

Key areas of forensics and potential A COMPANY APPROACHING technologies for knowledge transfer FORENSIC SCIENCE FOR THE FIRST The Knowledge Transfer Network (KTN) is TIME NEEDS TO HAVE A STRONG the UK’s Innovation Network. Its remit is to connect people to speed up innovation, solve BUSINESS CASE, IDEALLY BASED problems and find markets for new ideas. The ON MULTIPLE JURISDICTIONS, TO KTN exists to accelerate innovation, stimulating and facilitating the conversion of ideas into ENSURE THAT THE EFFORT WILL new products and services that benefit the YIELD A RETURN ON INVESTMENT. UK economically, socially and environmentally. KTN spans all technology domains and applications, and connects end-user problems / opportunities with people who can deliver ideas get to market, and as such will fund more solutions. near-to-market solutions than its predecessor, Innovate UK established KTN through a FP7. Its key objectives are: supporting the grant in April 2014, following the merger of 14 EU’s excellent science base; building industrial separate networks that each had a separate leadership in Europe; and tackling societal remit to address individual business and challenges for a better society. Horizon 2020 technology sectors that are important to the will simplify participation by having a single set UK economy. Many communities represented of rules for all participants, a single funding rate by KTN could have an impact on innovation 190 of 100% of eligible costs, and reduced process in the forensic sciences, but the main sectors complexity. offering immediate opportunities could include: There have been a number of opportunities • Biotechnology for funding for forensic science research under • Improved recovery of DNA the Secure Societies theme. Future calls are • Amplification of low copy number DNA also expected to contain a significant interest in • More rapid production of DNA profiles forensics. • Health • Use of biomarkers for identification 4. Other government funding • ICT & mathematics Centre for Defence Enterprise (CDE) • Tools and techniques for the management of CDE calls are open to a broad range of science large datasets and technology providers, including academia • Encryption tools for digital forensics and SMEs, and can be applied for through two applications routes: • Algorithms to improve the speed and • Enduring Challenge: a competition that is accuracy of identification always open for applications for proof-of- • Materials and chemistry concept research funding • Techniques for the analysis of materials – age, • Themed competitions origin etc • Electronics, sensors and photonics Police Innovation Fund • Biosensors for biometric analysis For the past few years, the government has been • Handheld devices for the characterisation of setting aside significant amounts of money to fund samples at the crime scene projects aimed at transforming policing through innovation and collaboration. In 2014, £50 million In his review of research and development was provided; this increased to £70 million in in forensic science in 2011 (ref. 15), Bernard 2015. Although this fund covers the whole of Silverman recommended that “the Technology policing, forensics projects are included. Projects Strategy Board should consider whether should be led by a UK Police Force, but can forensic science could be facilitated through involve both academic and industrial partners. a Knowledge Transfer Network or similar ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET

mechanism”. The KTN’s Forensic Science into areas such as health. Thus ever more data Special Interest Group (FoSci SIG) was on the individual will be collected, which is formed to fill this role, acting to improve useful to the Criminal Justice System but also communication and work to build a forensic poses privacy issues. There is much to learn community through collaboration with existing from other areas, such as the clinical sciences, in organisations. The FoSci SIG is a focal point the ethical management of data. for innovation and has a remit to facilitate All new techniques and procedures need to knowledge sharing across disciplines. be backed up by full, traceable and auditable Even though there are options for support validation studies. Documentation of these from the public purse, the diverse and studies must be disclosed if the techniques are multidisciplinary nature of the forensic sciences, ever challenged in the courts. While academics along with its small market size, means that and companies will routinely keep records of funding forensic science is not a priority for their research, the requirements of the Criminal most agencies. Recent use of the SBRI scheme Justice System are much more stringent has seen a handful of funding calls in the than in other fields. Missing or inaccurate forensic areas, but these are rare. Perhaps the documentation can result in evidence being best opportunity is to access the Horizon 2020 thrown out and confidence in a technology Secure Societies funding calls. disappearing. Technologies from different disciplines need While there is little direct public funding to be brought to bear on forensic science for new forensic products, there are some problems, thereby leveraging work that has sources from government agencies in the UK. already taken place. The UK has a mechanism Help is also on hand from the Knowledge 191 to do this through KTN and, in particular, the Transfer Network and the FoSci SIG. The UK is FoSci SIG. historically strong in both the forensic sciences and in the development of new technologies CONCLUSIONS for use in other markets. The KTN and the SIG Accessing the forensic science market is can help to bring the two together, by pulling not straightforward. The market is small, technologies proven in different sectors over fragmented and, in many countries, the main to forensics, and leveraging funding that has customer base is the police service or other already been committed from other areas. government agencies. A company approaching forensic science for the first time needs to have a strong business case, ideally based on THE RISE (AND PROJECTED multiple jurisdictions, to ensure that the effort INCREASE) IN THE USE OF BIOMETRIC will yield a return on investment. However, the UK’s Forensic Science Special Interest Group TECHNIQUES IN THE FORENSIC (FoSci SIG) has invested in mapping the key SCIENCES MEANS THAT ETHICS stakeholders involved, and detailing the process steps required to bring a new technology to AND PRIVACY CONSIDERATIONS market. BECOME EVER MORE IMPORTANT. Two of the main considerations are ethics and validation. The rise (and projected increase) in the use of biometric techniques in the forensic sciences means that ethics and privacy considerations become ever more important. Researchers are developing DNA techniques that will allow them to determine details of a suspect’s physical characteristics (eye colour, ethnicity, hair colour etc), along with other biomarkers that could offer insights ence Services in England and REFERENCES Wales’ Policing 2014: volume 8, pages 254-264. Available from http://policing.oxfordjournals.org/ content/8/3/254 SECTION 1 evidence and the police: The CHAPTER 1: effects of scientific evidence on 14. Committee on Identifying the FORENSIC SCIENCE IN criminal investigations’ National Needs of the Forensic Sciences CONTEXT Institute of Justice 1984. Available Community, National Research 1. House of Commons Science and from https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdf- Council ‘Strengthening Forensic Technology Committee files1/95704.pdf Science in the United States: A ‘The Forensic Science Service: 8. Roman JK and others ‘The DNA Path Forward’ 2009. Available https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdf- Seventh Report of Session 2010- field experiment: Cost-effective- from files1/nij/grants/228091.pdf 2012’ HC855. Available from ness analysis of the use of DNA http://www.publications.parliament. in the investigation of high-vol- uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cm- ume crimes’ Justice Policy Center, Case Study: A paradigm shift in UK sctech/855/855.pdf Urban Institute 2008. Available forensic science 2. House of Commons Science and from https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdf- 1. Committee on Identifying Technology Committee files1/nij/grants/222318.pdf the Needs of the Forensic ‘Forensic Science: Second Report 9. Pyrek K ‘Forensic science under Sciences Community, National of Session 2013–14’ HC610. siege: the challenges of forensic Research Council ‘Strength- Available from http://www.publica- laboratories and the medico-le- ening Forensic Science in the tions.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/ gal death investigation system’ United States: A Path Forward’ https:// cmselect/cmsctech/610/610.pdf Elsevier Academic Press 2007 2009. Available from www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/ 3. Hester M ‘Making it through the (Amsterdam). 192 grants/228091.pdf Criminal Justice System: Attrition 10. Strom KJ and Hickman MJ (ed- and Domestic Violence’ Social itors) ‘Forensic Science and the 2. The Royal Society ‘The par- Policy and Society 2006: volume Administration of Justice: Critical adigm shift for UK foren- 5, pages 79-90. Issues and Directions’ Sage sic science’ 2015. Available https://royalsociety.org/ Available from http://jounals.cam- Publications 2014. from bridge.org/action/displayAbstract?- 11. Bur rows J and others ‘Under- events/2015/02/forensic-science/ fromPage=online&aid=378481&- standing the attrition process 3. Nic Daeid N and Black S fileId=S1474746405002769 in volume crime investigations’ (editors) ‘Discussion meeting 4. Ministr y of Justice ‘Transforming Home Office Research, Develop- issue: The paradigm shift for the CJS: A Strategy and Action ment and Statistics Directorate forensic science’ Philosophical Plan to Reform the Criminal November 2005: Home Office Transactions B 2015: volume Justice System’ June 2013. Availa- Research Study 295. Available 370, issue 1674. Available from http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing. ble from https://www.gov.uk/gov- from https://www.gov.uk/govern- ernment/uploads/system/uploads/ ment/uploads/system/uploads/ org/content/370/1674 attachment_data/file/209659/ attachment_data/file/115828/ 4. The Royal Society ‘The par- transforming-cjs-2013.pdf hors295.pdf adigm shift for UK forensic 5. Fuller S ‘Kuhn Vs.Popper: The 12. Independent Police Commisson science – further discussion’ https:// Struggle for the Soul of Science’ ‘Policing for a Better Britain’ 2014: 2015. Available from royalsociety.org/events/2015/02/ Icon Books Ltd 2003 Appendix 10: Forensic science forensic-science-satellite/ 6. P eterson JL and Sommers I services for the ‘The Role and Impact of Forensic Criminal Justice System of CHAPTER 2: Evidence in the Criminal Justice England and Wales, pages 211- FORENSIC SCIENCE IN Process’ National 225. Available from http://inde- PRACTICE Institute of Justice 2010. Available pendentpolicecommission.org.uk/ at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ uploads/37d80308-be23-9684- 1. National DNA Database nij/grants/231977.pdf 054d-e4958bb9d518.pdf Strategy Board ‘Annual Report 7. P eterson JL and others ‘Forensic 13. Gallop A and Brown J ‘The 2013-14’ Home Office 2014. Market Future for Forensic Sci- Available from https://www. gov.uk/government/uploads/sys- Case Study: Forensic science in higher Council ‘Strengthening Forensic tem/uploads/attachment_data/ education Science in the United States: A file/387581/NationalDNAdata- 1. Quality Assurance Agency Path Forward’ 2009. Available base201314.pdf for Higher Education ‘Subject from https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdf- 2. La w Commission ‘Expert evi- benchmark statement: Forensic files1/nij/grants/228091.pdf dence in criminal proceedings science’ 2012. Available from in England and Wales’ 21 March http://www.qaa.ac.uk/en/Publica- CHAPTER 3: 2011, Law Com Number 325. tions/Documents/Subject-bench- ASSURANCE — STANDARDS, Available from lawcommission. mark-statement-forensic-science. VALIDATION AND justice.gov.uk/areas/expert-evi- pdf ACCREDITATION dence-in-criminal-trials.htm 2. Rankin BWJ, Taylor G and 1. Cr iminal Procedure Rule Com- 3. Forensic Science Regulator Thompson TJU ‘Should Higher mittee ‘Criminal Procedure Rules’ ‘Codes of Practice and Conduct Education respond to recent Ministry of Justice 2015 for forensic science providers changes in the forensic science 2. ISO ‘ISO/IEC 17025:2005 General and practitioners in the Crimi- marketplace?’ New Directions requirements for the competence nal Justice System’ August 2014. 2012: volume 8, pages 27-32 of testing and calibration labora- Available from https://www.gov. 3. Times Higher Education ‘Teach- tories’ uk/government/publications/foren- ing Excellence Framework 3. ISO ‘ISO/IEC 17020:2012 General sic-science-providers-codes-of-prac- (TEF): everything you need criteria for the operation of var- tice-and-conduct-2014 to know’ 2015. Available from ious types of bodies performing 4. Ministry of Justice ‘Rules and Prac- https://www.timeshighereducation. inspection’ tice Directions’ October 2015. co.uk/news/teaching-excellence- 4. Cr iminal Procedure Rule Com- Available from https://www.justice. framework-tef-everything-you- mittee ‘Criminal Procedure gov.uk/courts/procedure-rules/crimi- need-to-know Rules 2014 and Criminal Prac- 193 nal/rulesmenu-2015 4. The Chartered Society of tice Directions’. Available from 5. Cour ts and Tribunals Judiciary Forensic Sciences ‘The Accred- https://www.gov.uk/government/ ‘Criminal Practice Directions: itation Process’ 2015. Available publications/criminal-proce- Amendment No.2’ July 2014. from http://www.csofs.org/accred- dure-rules-2014-and-criminal-prac- Available from https://www. itation tice-directions judiciary.gov.uk/publications/crim- 5. Forensic Science Regulator. inal-practice-directions-amend- Case Study: The commercial providers’ Available from https://www.gov.uk/ ment-no-2/ perspective government/organisations/foren- 6. R v . Doheny & Adams [1997] 1 1. National Audit Office ‘Briefing sic-science-regulator/about Cr. App. R. 369; (CA Crim Div) for the House of Commons 6. Home Office ‘Government 7. European Network of Forensic Science and Technology Com- response to the consultation Science Institutes ‘ENFSI guideline mittee: The Home Office’s on new statutory powers for for evaluative reporting in foren- oversight of forensic services’ the Forensic Science Regulator’ sic science’ 2015. Available from December 2014. Available from July 2015. Available from https:// https://www.unil.ch/esc/files/live/ http://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/ www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ sites/esc/files/Fichiers%202015/ uploads/2015/01/The-Home-Of- system/uploads/attachment_data/ ENFSI%20Guideline%20Evalua- fice%E2%80%99s-oversight-of-fo- file/447338/2015-07-15_-_Gov- tive%20Reporting rensic-services.pdf ernment_response_to_the_consul- 8. House of Commons Science and 2. Science and Technology Com- tation_on_new_statutory.pdf Technology Committee ‘Forensic mittee ‘Forensic Science’ Second 7. Forensic Science Regulator ‘Our Science: Second Report of Ses- Report of Session 2013-14: Governance’. Available from sion 2013–14’ HC610. Available HC 610. Available from http:// https://www.gov.uk/government/ from http://www.publications.parlia- www.publications.parliament. organisations/forensic-science-regu- ment.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/ uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cm- lator/about/our-governance cmsctech/610/610.pdf sctech/610/610.pdf 8. Forensic Science Regulator 3. Committee on Identifying the ‘Codes of Practice and Conduct Needs of the Forensic Sciences for Forensic Science Providers Community, National Research and Practitioners in the Criminal Justice System, version 2.0’ August Available from http://www.bipm. _evidence/core_foundation_princi- 2014. Available from https://www. org/en/committees/cipm/joint-work- ples_for_forensic_science_provid- gov.uk/government/collections/foren- ing-groups.html ers/ sic-science-providers-codes-of-prac- 18. ILA C ‘Modules in a Forensic Sci- 26. The Chartered Society of tice-and-conduct ence Process’ ILAC G19:08/2014. Forensic Sciences ‘Membership’. 9. Home Office ‘Consultation on Available from http://ilac.org/news/ Available at http://www.csofs.org/ new statutory powers for the ilac-g19082014-published/ membership/accredited forensic science regulator’ 2013 19. ISO ‘Inf ormation technology -- 10. Inter national Organization for Security techniques -- Guidelines Case Study: UKAS accreditation: Standardization (ISO). Available for identification, collection, acqui- providing confidence in forensic science from http://www.iso.org/iso/home. sition and preservation of digital 1. ISO/IEC 17025:2005 ‘General html evidence’ ISO/IEC 27037:2012. requirements for the competence 11. United Kingdom Accreditation Available from http://www.iso. of testing and calibration laborato- Service ‘UKAS Guidance on the org/iso/catalogue_detail?csnum- ries’. Available from http://www.iso. Application of ISO/IEC 17025 ber=44381 org/iso/catalogue_detail.htm?csnum- Dealing with Expressions of 20. Home Office ‘Research and ber=39883 Opinions and Interpretations’ Development in Forensic Science: 2. ISO/IEC 17020:2012 ‘Conformity LAB13. Available from http://www. a Review’ 2011. Available from assessment - Requirements for ukas.com/download/publications/ https://www.gov.uk/government/ the operation of various types publications-relating-to-laborato- uploads/system/uploads/attach- of bodies performing inspection’. ry-accreditation/LAB13ed2.pdf ment_data/file/118916/foren- Available from http://www.iso. 12. Labor atory Accreditation Bureau sic-science-review-report.pdf org/iso/catalogue_detail?csnum- ‘Program Requirements: Forensic 21. Forensic Science Special Interest ber=52994 Science Laboratory Accreditation Group ‘Forensic Science UK Inno- 3. ILA C-G19:08/2014 ‘Modules 194 Program’ LABPR 413 2012. Avail- vation Database’. Available from in a Forensic Science Process’. able from http://l-a-b.com/wp-con- https://connect.innovateuk.org/web/ Available from http://ilac.org/news/ tent/uploads/LABPR-413-Foren- forensics/innovation-database ilac-g19082014-published/ sic-Science-Rev-2-5-29-12.pdf 22. National Audit Office ‘Briefing 4. Forensic Science Regulator 13. UKAS ‘M3003: The Expression for the House of Commons ‘Codes of Practice and Conduct of Uncertainty and Confidence Science and Technology Com- for forensic science providers in Measurement’ 2012. Available mittee: The Home Office’s and practitioners in the Criminal from http://www.ukas.com/down- Oversight of Forensic Services’ Justice System’ (Version 2.0 Au- load/publications/publications-re- December 2014. Available from gust 2014). Available from https:// lating-to-laboratory-accreditation/ http://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/ www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ M3003_Ed3_final.pdf uploads/2015/01/The-Home-Of- system/uploads/attachment_data/ 14. Forensic Science Regulator ‘Guid- fice%E2%80%99s-oversight-of-fo- file/351197/The_FSR_Codes_of_ ance: Validation’ FSR-G-201, 2014 rensic-services.pdf Practice_and_Conduct_-_v2_Au- 15. ILA C ‘Application of ISO/IEC 23. House of Commons Science and gust_2014.pdf 17020:2012 for the Accred- Technology Select Committee itation of Inspection Bodies’ ‘The Forensic Science Service CHAPTER 4: ILAC P15:06/2014. Available - Science and Technology Com- COGNITIVE AND from http://ilac.org/news/il- mittee: 2. The forensics market’. HUMAN FACTORS ac-p15062014-published/ Available from http://www.publica- 1. Matlin M ‘Cognition’ 8th Edition, 16. ILA C AIC and BIPM ‘Joint ILAC – tions.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/ Wiley Press 2013 CIPM Communication regarding cmselect/cmsctech/855/85505. 2. P osner MI ‘Foundations of Cogni- the Accreditation of Calibration htm tive Science’ MIT Press 1989 and Measurement Services of 24. UK Accreditation Service. Availa- 3. Dror IE ‘Practical Solutions to National Metrology Institutes’ ble from http://www.ukas.com/ Cognitive and Human Factor 2012. Available from http://www. 25. CPS ‘Core Foundation Principles Challenges in Forensic Science’ bipm.org/utils/common/pdf/il- for Forensic Science Providers’ Forensic Science Policy & Man- ac-cipm_joint_communication.pdf 2010. Available from http://www. agement 2014: volume 4, pages 17. BIPM ‘Joint Working Groups’. cps.gov.uk/legal/s_to_u/scientific 105-113 4. Dror IE ‘The paradox of human POST-PB-0015#fullreport. 2014: volume 54, pages 208–214 expertise: Why experts get it 13. Dror IE ‘Cognitive neuroscience 23. Osbour ne NKP and others wrong’ in Kapur N (Ed.) ‘The Para- in forensic science: Understanding ‘Does contextual information bias doxical Brain’ Cambridge Universi- and utilising the human element’ bitemark comparisons?’ Science ty Press 2011, pages 177-188 Philosophical Transactions of the & Justice 2014: volume 54, pages 5. Ra ymond NS ‘Confirmation Bias: Royal Society 2015: volume 370, 267–273 A ubiquitous phenomenon in 20140255 24. Ker stholt JH and others ‘Shoe many guises’ Review of General 14. Ber ger v. United States, 295 U.S. print examinations: effects of ex- Psychology 1998: volume 2, pages 78, 88 (1935) pectation, complexity and experi- 175–220 15. Kozinski A. Criminal Law 2.0, 44th ence’ Forensic Science Internation- 6. Alameddine M and others ‘The Annual Review of Criminal Pro- al 2007: volume 165, pages 30–34 intensive care unit work envi- cedure. Georgetown Law Journal, 25. Kerstholt J and others ‘Does sug- ronment: Current challenges and 44, iii-xliv (2015) gestive information cause a confir- recommendations for the future’ 16. Mnookin JL, Cole SA, Dror IE, mation bias in bullet comparisons?’ Journal of Critical Care 2009: Fisher BA, Houck MM, Inman K, Forensic Science International volume 24, pages 243–248 Kaye DH, Koehler JJ, Langenburg L, 2010: volume 198, pages 138–142 7. Dror IE and others ‘Cognitive Risinger M, Rudin N, Siegel J, and 26. Dror IE and others ‘Contextual issues in fingerprint analysis: Stoney DA. (2011). information renders experts Inter-and intra-expert consistency The need for a research culture in vulnerable to making erroneous and the effect of a ‘target’ compar- the forensic sciences. UCLA Law identifications’ Forensic Science ison’ Forensic Science Internation- Review, 58 (3), 725-779. International 2006: volume 156, al 2011: volume 208, pages 10-17 17. R v Shahir iar Firouzian, case pages 74–78 8. Dror IE and Cole S ‘The vision in T20110667, Blacfriars Crown 27. Laber T and others ‘Reliability ‘blind’ justice: Expert perception, Court. assessment of current methods in 195 judgment and visual cognition in 18. Edmond G and others ‘Contextu- bloodstain pattern analysis’ Final forensic pattern recognition’ Psy- al bias and cross-contamination in Report for the National Institute chonomic Bulletin & Review 2010: the forensic sciences: The corro- of Justice. Award # 2010-DN- volume 17, pages 161-167 sive implications for investigations, BX-K213: 2014. Available from 9. Dror IE and Hampikian G ‘Sub- plea bargains, trials and appeals’ https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/ jectivity and bias in forensic DNA Law, Probability, and Risk 2015: grants/247180.pdf mixture interpretation’ Science & volume 14, pages 1-25 28. Bieber P ‘Measuring the impact Justice 2011: volume 51, 204-208 19. Found F ‘Deciphering the human of cognitive bias in fire investi- 10. Cob le M ‘Interpretation Errors condition: the rise of cognitive gation’ International Symposium Detected in a NIST Inter-labo- forensics’ Australian Journal of on Fire Investigation Science and ratory Study on DNA Mixture Forensic Sciences 2015: volume Technology 2012: pages 3–15. Interpretation in the U.S. (MIX13)’ 47, pages 386-401 Available from http://thearson- Presentation at the International 20. Dror IE and Rosenthal R ‘Meta-an- project.org/charm/wp-content/ Symposium on Forensic Science alytically quantifying the reliability uploads/2013/12/Cognative_Bias_ Error Management – Detection, and biasability of forensic experts’ ARP.pdf Measurement and Mitigation. Journal of Forensic Sciences 2008: 29. Mur rie D and others ‘Are forensic Washington DC 2015 volume 53, pages 900-903 experts biased by the side that 11. Uler y BT and others ‘Repeatability 21. Bressan P and Dal Martello MF retained them?’ Psychological and Reproducibility of Decisions ‘Talis Pater, Talis Filius: Perceived Science 2013: volume 24, pages by Latent Fingerprint Examin- resemblance and the belief in 1889–1897 ers’ PLoS ONE 2012: volume 7, genetic relatedness’ Psychological 30. Dror IE and Mnookin J ‘The use e32800 Science 2002: volume 13, pages of technology in human expert 12. Stammer s S and Bunn S ‘Unin- 213–218 domains: Challenges and risks tentional bias in forensic investiga- 22. Nakhaeizadeh S and others ‘Cog- arising from the use of auto- tion’ Houses of Parliament 2015: nitive bias in forensic anthropol- mated fingerprint identification POSTbrief PB-15. Available from ogy: Visual assessments of skeletal systems in forensics’ Law, Prob- http://researchbriefings.parliament. remains is susceptible to con- ability and Risk 2010: volume 9, uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/ firmation bias’ Science & Justice pages 47-67 31. Dror IE and others ‘The impact to forensic science examinations’ we now use the word)’ (1999). of human-technology coopera- 2015. Available from https:// Available from http://www.seminar- tion and distributed cognition in www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ io2005.unal.edu.co/Trabajos/Fearon/ forensic science: Biasing effects system/uploads/attachment_data/ What%20is%20identity%20(as%20 of AFIS contextual information file/470549/FSR-G-217_Cogni- we%20now%20see%20the%20 on human experts’ Journal of tive_bias_appendix.pdf world).pdf (accessed September Forensic Sciences 2012: volume 2015) 57, pages 343-352 Case Study: Statistics in Court 2. Black SM and Nic Daeid N ‘Time 32. Stacey RB ‘Report on the erro- 1. Fenton NE and Neil M ‘Avoiding to think differently: Catalysing a neous fingerprint individualization legal fallacies in practice using paradigm shift in forensic science’ bombing case’ Journal of Forensic Bayesian networks’ Australian Philosophical Transactions B 2015: Identification 2004: volume 54, Journal of Legal Philosophy 2011: volume 370, article 20140251 pages 706-718 volume 36, pages 114-151 3. Har per J ‘Identity Crisis: How 33. Campbell A ‘The Finger- 2. Kahneman D ‘Thinking, Fast and Identification is oOverused and print Inquiry Report’ 2011. Slow’ Penguin 2012 Misunderstood’ CATO Institute, Available from http://www. 3. New ell BR, Lagnado DA and Washington International Associa- webarchive.org.uk/wayback/ar- Shanks DR ‘Straight choices: the tion for Biometrics 2006 chive/20150428160103/http:// psychology of decision making’ 4. Bandy opadhyay SK and others ‘In- www.thefingerprintinquiryscotland. Psychology Press (2nd edition) formation security and assurance’ org.uk/inquiry/files/TheFingerprintIn- 2015 ISA 4th International Conference, quiryReport_Low_res.pdf 4. European Network of Forensic Springer-Verlag (Berlin) 2010: 34. The High Court Of Justice Court Science Institutes ‘ENFSI guideline pages 108-115 Of Appeal (Criminal Division), for evaluative reporting in foren- 5. European Commission ‘Biomet- Regina and Peter Kenneth Smith sic science’ 2015 rics at the frontiers: Assessing the 196 2011: EWCA Crim 1296. 5. Taroni F, Biedermann A, Bozza impact on society’ Transportation 35. Gar rett BL and Neufeld PJ ‘Invalid S, Garbolino, P and Aitken CG Research Board of the National forensic science testimony and ‘Bayesian networks for probabilis- Academies, Technical Report wrongful convictions’ Virginia Law tic inference and decision analysis Series 2005: accession number Review 2009: volume 95, pages in forensic science’ Wiley 2014 1010900. Available from http:// 1-97 6. Fenton N, Lagnado DA and Neil www.biteproject.org/documents/ 36 Dror IE and others ‘Context M ‘A general structure for legal EU_Biometrics_at_the_Frontiers. management toolbox: A linear arguments using Bayesian net- pdf (accessed September 2015) sequential unmasking (LSU) works’ Cognitive Science 2013: 6. Zhu Y and others ‘Biometric approach for minimizing cognitive volume 37, pages 61-102 personal identification system bias in forensic decision making’ based on iris pattern’ Chinese Journal of Forensic Sciences 2015: Patent Application 1999: number volume 60, pages 1111-1112 SECTION 2 9911025.6 37. Kassin SM and others ‘The foren- CHAPTER 5: 7. Kisku DR and others ‘Advances sic confirmation bias: Problems, THE CHANGING NATURE OF in Biometrics for Secure Human perspectives, and proposed solu- CRIME Authentication and Recognition’ tions’ Journal of Applied Research CRC Press (Florida) 2013 in Memory and Cognition 2013: Case Study: Trojan opens the gates to 8. Inter national Biometric Group volume 2, pages 42-52 company cash ‘Biometrics Market and Industry 38. Dror IE and others ‘New applica- 1. PwC . ‘2015 Information Security Report 2004-2008’ (2006). Availa- tion of psychology to law: Improv- Breaches Survey’. http://www.pwc. ble from http://www.ereleases.com/ ing forensic evidence and expert co.uk/assets/pdf/2015-isbs-techni- pr/international-biometric-group-re- witness contributions’ Journal of cal-report-blue-03.pdf leases-biometrics-market-and-in- Applied Research in Memory and dustry-report-20042008-3254 Cognition 2013: volume 2, pages CHAPTER 6: (accessed September 2015) 78-81 IDENTITY AND 9. Planet Biometrics ‘Global biom- 39. Forensic Science Regulator IDENTIFICATION etric forecast to 2012’ (2011). ‘Cognitive bias effects relevant 1. Fearon JD ‘What is identity (as Available from http://www.rncos. com/Report/IM140.htm (accessed process’ The International Journal Conference 27-29 September September 2015) of Evidence & Proof 2013: volume 2010: pages 1-5 10. Gallo way V and Charlton D 17, pages 127-156 28. Zelazn y F ‘The evolution of India’s ‘Fingerprints’ in ‘Forensic Human 20. La w Commission ‘Expert UID program’ CGD 2012: policy Identification: An Introduction’ Evidence in Criminal Proceedings paper 008. Available from http:// (editors Thompson T and Black S) in England and Wales’ The Station- www.cgdev.org/files/1426371_file_ CRC Press (Florida) 2007, pages ery Office (London) 2011: report Zelazny_India_Case_Study_FINAL. 57-72 number 325 pdf (accessed September 2015) 11. Mur phy E ‘The new forensics: 21. Pyrek KM ‘Forensic Science Under Criminal justice, false certainty and Siege: The Challenges of Forensic Case Study: Emerging biometrics in the the second generation of scientific Laboratories and the Medico-Le- courtroom evidence’ California Law Review gal Investigation 1. Black S, Macdonald-Mcmillan B 2007: volume 95, pages 721-797 System’ Academic Press and Mallett X ‘The incidence of 12. Campbell A ‘The Fingerprint (California) 2007 scarring on the dorsum of the Inquiry’ 2011. Available from http:// 22. CIF AS ‘Fraudscape: UK fraud hand’ International Journal of Legal www.thefingerprintinquiryscotland. trends’ 2014. Available from Medicine 2014: volume 128, pages org.uk/inquiry/3127-2.html (ac- http://www.cifas.org.uk/secure/ 545-553 cessed September 2015) contentPORT/uploads/documents/ 13. Jain AK and Ross AA ‘Introduction External%20-%20Fraudscape%20 CHAPTER 7: to Biometrics’ in ‘Handbook of main%20report%20for%20website. CYBER FORENSICS Biometrics’ (editors Jain AK, Flynn pdf (accessed September 2015) 1. Detica and the Office of Cyber Se- P and Ross AA) Springer (New 23. CIF AS ‘Fraudscape: Depicting curity and Information Assurance York) 2008: pages 1-23 the UK’s fraud landscape’ 2014. in the Cabinet Office ‘The Cost of 14. Jain AK and Ross AA ‘Bridging the Available from https://www.cifas. Cyber Crime’ 2011. Available from 197 gap: From biometrics to forensics’ org.uk/secure/contentPORT/uploads/ https://www.gov.uk/government/pub- Philosophical Transactions B 2015: documents/Cifas%20Reports/Exter- lications/the-cost-of-cyber-crime-joint- volume 370, article 20140254 nal-Cifas-Fraudscape-2014-online. government-and-industry-report 15. Black SM and others ‘SuperIdentity: pdf (accessed September 2015) 2. Go vernment Office for Science Fusion of identity across real and 24. CIF AS ‘Identity crime on your ‘The Internet of Things’ (2014). cyber domains’ Refereed Proceed- doorstep’ 2013. Available from Available from https://www.gov.uk/ ings of ‘ID360: Global Issues in https://www.cifas.org.uk/secure/ government/uploads/system/uploads/ Identity’ (Texas) 23-24 April 2012 contentPORT/uploads/documents/ attachment_data/file/409774/14- 16. Wilson C ‘Vein Pattern Recogni- External-IDcrime_onyourdoorstep_ 1230-internet-of-things-review.pdf tion: A Privacy Enhancing Biomet- Cifas_OS.pdf (accessed September 3. Foreign and Commonwealth ric’ CRC Press (Florida) 2010 2015) Office ‘Convention on Cybercrime’ 17. Wagley J ‘Vein Recognition Use 25. Techweek Europe “ Floodgates Budapest, 23 November 2001, Grows’ Security Management have opened” for biometrics indus- Cm8309. Available from https:// 2011. Available from http://www. try following Christmas demand’ www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ securitymanagement.com/article/ 22 December 2014. http://www. system/uploads/attachment_data/ vein-recognition-use-grows (accessed techweekeurope.co.uk/e-innovation/ file/238194/8309.pdf September 2015) biometrics-mobile-payments-christ- 4. National Commission on Forensic 18. Black SM and others ‘Forensic mas-157920 (accessed September Science ‘Scientific Literature in hand image comparison as an 2015) Support of Forensic Science and aid for paedophile investigations’ 26. Sahoo SK and others ‘Multimodal Practice’ January 2015. Available Police Professional 2009: volume biometric person authentication: from http://www.justice.gov/sites/ 184, pages 21-24 A review’ IETE Technical Review default/files/ncfs/pages/attach- 19. Fer guson PR and Raitt FE “If a pic- 2012: volume 29, pages 54-75 ments/2015/01/21/scientificlitera- ture paints a thousand words….”: 27. Rodr igues RN and others ‘Evalu- tureviewsdocumentfinaljan2015.pdf The development of human iden- ation of biometric spoofing in a 5. FBI ‘FBI Testimony on Microscopic tification techniques in forensic an- multimodal system’ from ‘Biom- Hair Analysis Contained Errors thropology and their implications etrics: Theory applications and in at Least 90 Percent of Cases for human rights in the criminal systems’ 4th IEEE International in Ongoing Review’ April 2015. Available from https://www.fbi.gov/ Making the most of the British (2009/371/JHA) Official Journal of news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-tes- diaspora’ Institute for Public Policy the European Union 15 May 2009: timony-on-microscopic-hair-analysis- Research 2010, page 7 L121/37 contained-errors-in-at-least-90-per- 3. Bak er S and others ‘Review of 11. The Council of the European Un- cent-of-cases-in-ongoing-review the United Kingdom’s Extradition ion ‘Council Decision 2008/615/ 6. Zatyk o KR ‘Commentary: De- Arrangements’ Home Office JHA of 23 June 2008 on the fining Digital Forensics’ Forensic 2011. Available from https:// stepping up of cross-border co- Magazine January 2007. Available www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ operation in combating terrorism from http://www.forensicmag.com/ system/uploads/attachment_data/ and cross-border crime’ Official articles/2007/01/commentary-defin- file/117673/extradition-review.pdf Journal of the European Union 6 ing-digital-forensics 4. Goudge ST ‘Inquiry into Paediatric August 2008: L210/1 7. Zatyk o KR and Bay J ‘The Dig- Pathology in Ontario’ 2008: vol- 12. Ministr y of Justice ‘Criminal Justice ital Forensics Cyber Exchange ume 1, page 36. Available at http:// Statistics Quarterly Update to Principle’ Forensic Magazine 2011. www.goudgeinquiry.ca March 2015: England and Wales’ Available from http://www.forensic- 5. Heijnen W ‘DVI aspects of forensic 13 August 2015. Available from mag.com/articles/2011/12/digital-fo- investigation’ Plenary session iv, 7th https://www.gov.uk/government/ rensics-cyber-exchange-principle European Academy of Forensic uploads/system/uploads/attach- 8 Inter national Information System Science Conference, 11 Septem- ment_data/file/453309/crimi- Security Certification Consortium ber 2015 nal-justice-statistics-march-2015. ‘Leadership for the Field of Cyber 6. The Bar Council of England and pdf.pdf Forensics’. Available from https:// Wales ‘Response to the Select 13. Johnson D ‘E.U. migrant criminal learning.isc2.org/sites/learning.isc2. Committee on the European Un- activity: Exploring spatial diversity org/files/CCFP-WEB.pdf ion Sub-Committee E (Justice, Insti- and volume of criminal activity 9 NIST ‘NIST Cloud Computing tutions and Consumer Protection) attributed to inter EU migrants in 198 Forensic Science Challenges’ June and Sub-Committee F (Home England’ Applied Geography 2014: 2014. Available from http://csrc.nist. Affairs, Health and Education) Call volume 50, pages 48-62 gov/publications/drafts/nistir-8006/ for Evidence on the UK’s 2014 14. Johnson D and others ‘The Prüm draft_nistir_8006.pdf Opt-out Decision (Protocol 36)’ Implementation, Evaluation and 10 Zatyko KR and Cohen A ‘Trust no 2012. Available from http://www. Strengthening (P.I.E.S.) of Forensic one: fighting the hackers abroad barcouncil.org.uk/media/210686/ DNA Data Exchange’ Northum- and at home’ Intellectual Property bar_council_of_e__w_response_to_ bria University Final Report 2015. Magazine July 2014. Available from hl_inquiry_on_opt-out_2014final.pdf Available from http://nrl.northum- http://www.intellectualproperty- 7. Inter pol ‘Interpol network links fo- bria.ac.uk/23383/1/Final_report.pdf magazine.com/patent/trust-no-one- rensic laboratories in G8 countries’ 15. Rienz o C and Vargas-Silva C fighting-the-hackers-abroad-and-at- 6 July 2007. Available from http:// ‘Migrants in the UK: an Overview’ home-101781.htm www.interpol.int/News-and-media/ 2014. Available from http://www. News/2007/PR029 migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/brief- CHAPTER 8: 8. ICMP ‘ICMP joins INTERPOL in ings/migrants-uk-overview THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Responding to Malaysian Airlines 16. Commissioner for the Retention 1. The author is grateful for informa- Flight MH 17 Crash’ 19 July 2014. and use of Biometric Material ‘An- tion and assistance from Susan Available from http://www.ic-mp. nual Report 2014’. Available from Ballou and Mark Stolorow, NIST; org/press-releases/icmp-joins-inter- https://www.gov.uk/government/ Professor Peter Bilous, Eastern pol-mh-17-crash/ uploads/system/uploads/attach- Washington University; Sophie 9. Feder al Bureau of Investigation ment_data/file/387573/Biomet- Carr, Faculty of Health and Life ‘CODIS Brochure’. Available from ricsAnnualReport201314Print.pdf Sciences, Northumbria University; https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/lab/ 17. Home Office ‘Serious and Dr Patrick Jeuniaux, NICC, Dr biometric-analysis/codis/codis_bro- Organised crime Strategy’ 2015. Elisabet Leitet, Swedish National chure Available from https://www.gov.uk/ Forensic Centre; and Dr Michael 10. The Council of the European government/publications/serious-or- Stockdale, Director NCECJS, Union ‘Council Decision of 6 ganised-crime-strategy Northumbria University. April 2009 establishing the Eu- 18. Nether lands Forensic Institute 2. Finch T and others ‘Global Brit: ropean Police Office (Europol) ‘Dutch DNA database has result- ed in 25,000 international match- Science in the United States: A and Directive 2012/13/EU of The es’ 2015. Available from http:// Path Forward’ 2009. Available European Parliament and of The www.forensicinstitute.nl/about_nfi/ from https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdf- Council of 22 May 2012 on the news/2015/dutch-dna-data- files1/nij/grants/228091.pdf right to information in criminal base-has-resulted-in-25000-interna- 26. Champod C ‘Fingerprint identifi- proceedings tional-matches.aspx cation: advances since the 2009 35. Lynch M and others ‘Truth Ma- 19. Inf ormation provided by the National Research Council report’ chine: The Contentious History Nationaal Instituut voor Crimi- Phil.Trans. R. Soc. B 2015: volume of DNA fingerprinting’ University nalistiek en Criminologie (NICC) 370, article 20140259. Available of Chicago Press 2008: pages / Institut National de Criminal- from http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/ 332-333 istique et Criminologie (INCC) rstb.2014.0259 36. Wilson TJ and Gallop AMC from work undertaken by Dr 27. Inf ormation from a briefing by Dr ‘Criminal Justice, Science and the Patrick Jeuniaux under the PIES Elisabet Leitet, Swedish National Marketplace: The Closure of the project - The Prüm Implementa- Forensic Centre. Forensic Science Service in Per- tion, Evaluation, and Strengthening 28. House of Commons Science and spective’ The Journal of Criminal of Forensic DNA Data Ex- Technology Committee ‘Current Law 2013: volume 77, page 63 change (HOME/2011/ISEC/AG/ and Future Uses of Biometric 37. Rober ts P and Zuckerman A PRUM/4000002150) Data and Technologies’ HC ‘Criminal Evidence’ 2nd edition, 20. House of Commons Science and 2014–15 Oxford University Press 2010: Technology Committee ‘Forensic 29. Zhu Y and others ‘Mortality 60-61 Science on Trial’ HC 2004–05: among drowning rescuers in Chi- 38. Stephen Hamilton v R [2014] volume 1, pages 74-80. Available na, 2013: a review of 225 rescue EWCA Crim 1555 44 from http://www.publications.parlia- incidents from the press’ BMC 39. Fr ye v US, 54 App DC 46; 113 S ment.uk/pa/cm200405/cmselect/ Public Health 2015: volume 15, Ct 2786 (1923) 199 cmsctech/96/96i.pdf page 631 40. Dauber t v Merrell Dow L 25 Ed 21. Lundy v R [2013] UKPC 28 30. Yin Z and others ‘Burden and 2d 46; 293F 1013 (1993) 22. Forensic Science Regulator trend analysis of injury mortality 41. R v . Clarke [1995] 2 Cr App R ‘Forensic science providers: codes in China among children aged 425 429 of practice and conduct, 2014’. 0–14 years from 2004 to 2011’ 42. The Lord Chief Justice, Lord Available from https://www.gov. BMJ Open 2015: volume 5, article Thomas of Cwmgiedd ‘Criminal uk/government/publications/foren- e007307 Bar Association Kalisher Lecture’ sic-science-providers-codes-of-prac- 31. Zhao J and others ‘The establish- 2014. Available from http://www. tice-and-conduct-2014 ment of Multiplex PCR-Capillary judiciary.gov.uk/wp-content/up- 23. Salet R and Terpstra J ‘Critical electrophoresis method for loads/2014/10/kalisher-lecture-ex- Review in Criminal Investigation: forensic algae test’ Presentation at pertevidence-oct-14.pdf Evaluation of a Measure to Pre- the 7th European Academy of Fo- 43. Compar ative GDP Data from the vent Tunnel Vision’ Policing 2014: rensic Science Conference 2015 World Bank website: http://data. volume 8, pages 43–50 32. Council Fr amework Decision worldbank.org/country?display=- 24. Klooster man A and others ‘The 2009/905/JHA of 30 November graph Accessed 06.11.15 interface between forensic science 2009 on Accreditation of forensic and technology: how technology service providers carrying out Case Study: Wildlife Crime could cause a paradigm shift in laboratory activities. 1. United Nations Office on Drugs the role of forensic institutes in 33. Council Decision 2008/615/JHA and Crime ‘Wildlife and Forest the criminal justice system’ Phil. of 23 June 2008 on the stepping Crime’. Available from https://www. Trans. R. Soc. B 2015: volume up of cross-border cooperation, unodc.org/unodc/en/wildlife-and-for- 370, article 20140264. Available particularly in combating terror- est-crime/ from http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/ ism and cross-border crime 2. CITES ‘What is CITES?’. Available rstb.2014.0264 34. Directiv e 2010/64/EU of The from https://cites.org/eng/disc/what. 25. Committee on Identifying the European Parliament And of The php Needs of the Forensic Sciences Council of 20 October 2010 on 3. http://www .sasa.gov.uk/wildlife-envi- Community, National Research the right to interpretation and ronment/wildlife-crime Council ‘Strengthening Forensic translation in criminal proceedings; 4. Huffman JE and Wallace JR ‘Wildlife forensics: methods and Wales (available from http://www. Engineering and Mathematics applications’ Volume 6, John Wiley crimesurvey.co.uk/) (STEM) subjects’ 2nd Report & Sons 2012 4. Home Office ‘Police recorded 2012-13. Available from http:// 5. Forensic Working Group ‘Wild- crime and outcomes open data www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ life crime: A guide to the use of tables’ (available from https:// ld201213/ldselect/ldsctech/37/37. forensic and specialist techniques www.gov.uk/government/statistics/ pdf in the investigation of wildlife police-recorded-crime-open-data-ta- crime’. Available from https://www. bles) Case Study: Designing out mobile phone gov.uk/government/publications/ 5. The 34th Annual Cumberland crime wildlife-crime-forensic-and-special- Lodge Police Conference ‘Policing 1. Clar ke R and others ‘Controlling ist-techniques Professionalism: Leadership, Ethics, cell phone fraud in the US’ Securi- 6. Ogden R ‘Forensic science, genet- Public Confidence’ April 2015. ty Journal 2001: volume 14, pages ics and wildlife biology: getting the Available from http://www.cum- 7-22 right mix for a wildlife DNA foren- berlandlodge.ac.uk/Resources/Cum- 2. Fisher BS and Lab SP ‘Encyclo- sics lab’ Forensic science, medicine, berlandLodge2011/Documents/ paedia of Victimology and Crime and pathology 2010: volume 6, Programme/Reports/Police%20 Prevention’ Sage 2010: Volume 1 pages 172-179 Conference%20Summary%20Re- 3. Hall P ‘Mobile phone ownership 7. Linacre A and others ‘ISFG: port.pdf and theft’ in ‘Home security, mobile recommendations regarding the 6. House of Commons Public phone theft and stolen goods: Sup- use of non-human (animal) DNA Administration Select Committee plementary Volume 3 to Crime in forensic genetic investigations’ (PASC) ‘Caught red-handed: Why in England and Wales 2007/08’ Forensic Science International: we can’t count on Police Record- Home Office, London, May 2009: Genetics 2011: volume 5, pages ed Crime statistics’ 2014: HC760. pages 31-49. Available from 501-505 Available from http://www.publica- webarchive.nationalarchives.gov. 200 8. Society f or Wildlife Forensic tions.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/ uk/20110218135832/rds.homeof- Science. Available from http://www. cmselect/cmpubadm/760/760.pdf fice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs09/hosb1009.pdf wildlifeforensicscience.org/ 7. John van Kesteren ‘Some main 4. Office for National Statistics ‘Chap- 9. NIST ‘Organization of Scientific results on international compar- ter 1: Property Crime - Overview’ Area Committees’. Available from ison and trends: results from the in ‘Crime Statistics, Focus on http://www.nist.gov/forensics/osac/ International Crime Victims Survey Property Crime, 2013/14 Release’. index.cfm and the European Survey on Available from http://www.ons.gov. Crime and Safety’ Intervict, Tilburg uk/ons/dcp171776_386643.pdf CHAPTER 9: University 2008. Available from 5. BBC News ‘Mobile-phone ‘sting’ DESIGNING OUT CRIME http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. reveals honesty of Sussex pubgo- 1. Lord Thomas of Cwmgiedd cfm?abstract_id=1117972 ers’ 17 July 2012. Available from ‘Expert evidence: the future of 8. Sher man L and others ‘Prevent- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-eng- forensic science in criminal trials’ ing Crime: What Works, What land-sussex-18871267 Criminal Bar Association Kalisher Doesn’t, What’s Promising’ Report 6. Far rell G ‘Preventing phone theft Lecture 14 October 2014. Avail- to US Congress, National institute and robbery: the need for gov- able from https://www.judiciary.gov. of Justice, July 1998: pages 7-48. ernment action and international uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/ Available from https://www.ncjrs. coordination’ Crime Science 2015: kalisher-lecture-expert-evi- gov/pdffiles/171676.PDF volume 4, article 4. Available from dence-oct-14.pdf 9. Car ter C ‘Shoppers steal billions http://www.crimesciencejournal.com/ 2. Committee on Identifying the through self service tills’ Daily Tel- content/4/1/4 Needs of the Forensic Sciences egraph 29 January 2014. Available 7. Beha vioural Insight Team ‘Reducing Community, National Research from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/ Mobile Phone Theft and Improv- Council ‘Strengthening Forensic finance/personalfinance/house- ing Security’ 2014. Available from Science in the United States: A hold-bills/10603984/Shoppers-steal- http://www.behaviouralinsights. Path Forward’ 2009: page 7. Avail- billions-through-self-service-tills.html co.uk/publications/reducing-mo- able from https://www.ncjrs.gov/ 10. House of Lords Select Committee bile-phone-theft-and-improving-se- pdffiles1/nij/grants/228091.pdf on Science and Technology ‘Higher curity/ 3. Cr ime Survey for England & Education in Science, Technology, 8. Mailley J and others ‘Phone theft index’ Security Journal drugs and medical devices’. Avail- sis-dna-test-for-mahaleb-developed 2008: volume 21, pages 212- able from https://www.gov.uk/drug- 18. Vashist SK ‘Immunodiagnostics: 227. Available from http://www. device-alerts Major Advances and Future In- palgrave-journals.com/sj/journal/v21/ 10. World Health Organisation sights’ Biochips and Tissue Chips n3/full/8350055a.html ‘Essential medicines and health 2013: Volume 3, Issue 2 9. Officef or National Statistics products - Drug Alerts’. Available 19. Waltho A, Wilkes T, Nixon G, ‘Crime in England and Wales, Year from http://www.who.int/medicines/ Bushell C, and Burns M ‘Testing Ending March 2015’. Available from publications/drugalerts/en/ Wheat Grain Authenticity with http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime- 11. European Commission ‘The Fast, Non-destructive Multispec- stats/crime-statistics/year-ending- Rapid Alert System for Food and tral Image Analysis” LABMATE march-2015/index.html Feed’. Available from http://ec.eu- online: March 2015 ropa.eu/food/safety/rasff/portal/ 20. Kal yanaraman R, Dobler G and SECTION 3 index_en.htm Ribick M ‘Portable spectrometers CHAPTER 10: 12. Riedl J, Esslinger S, and Fauhl-Has- for pharmaceutical counterfeit AUTHENTICITY AND sek C ‘Review of validation and detection’ American Pharmaceu- PROVENANCE reporting of non-targeted fin- tical Review April 2010 1. OECD ‘The economic impact of gerprinting approaches for food 21. Guin U , Huang K, DiMase D, counterfeiting and piracy’ 2008 authentication’ Analytica Chimica Carulli JM, Tehranipoor M, and 2. Frontier Economics ‘Estimating the Acta 2015: volume 885, pages Makris Y ‘Counterfeit integrated global economic and social impacts 17-32. circuits: A rising threat in the glob- of counterfeiting and piracy’ 2011 13. Wishart DS ‘Quantitative metab- al semiconductor supply chain’ 3. Walker MJ, Burns M and Thorburn olomics using NMR’ Trends in An- Proceedings of the IEEE 2014: Burns D ‘Horse meat in beef alytical Chemistry 2008: volume volume 102, pages 1207-28. products, species substitution’ 27, pages 228–237 22. Mollo y J and Naftalya M ‘Wool 201 Journal of the Association of Public 14. Neumann S and Böcker S ‘Com- textile identification by terahertz Analysts (Online) 2013: volume putational mass spectrometry spectroscopy’ The Journal of The 41, pages 67 – 106 for metabolomics: Identification Textile Institute 2014: volume 4. Deisingha AK ‘Pharmaceutical of metabolites and small mole- 105, pages 794-798 counterfeiting’ Analyst 2005: vol- cules’ Analytical and Bioanalytical 23. Bak er M. ‘Digital PCR hits its ume130, pages 271-279 Chemistry 2010: volume 398, stride’ Nature Methods 2012: 5. Arslan MM and others. ‘Analysis pages 2779-88 volume 9, pages 541–544 of methanol and its derivatives 15. For example , Rubert J, Lacina O, 24. Comley J ‘ELISA Assays: recent in- in illegally produced alcoholic Fauhl-Hassek C and Hajslova J novations take analyte detection beverages’ Journal of Forensic and ‘Metabolic fingerprinting based to new levels’ Drug Discovery Legal Medicine 2015: volume 33, on high-resolution tandem mass World Fall 2012: pages 23-45 pages 56-60. spectrometry: a reliable tool for 25. Van Oorschot RAH, Ballantyne 6. McKee M, Adany R and Leon DA wine authentication?’ Journal KN and Mitchell RJ ‘Forensic trace ‘Illegally produced alcohol’ The of Analytical and Bioanalytical DNA: a review’ Investigative Ge- British Medical Journal (Clinical Chemistry 2014: volume 406, netics 2010: volume 1, article 14 Research Edition) 2012: volume pages 6791-803 26. For example , Lachenmeier 344, page e1146. 16. Hudson S and others ‘Use of high DW, Przybylski MC and Rehm J 7. Go wland MH and Walker MJ resolution mass spectrometry to ‘Comparative risk assessment of ‘Food Allergy, a summary of 8 detect reported and previously carcinogens in alcoholic beverag- cases in the UK criminal and civil unreported cannabinomimetics es using the margin of exposure courts: effective last resort for vul- in “herbal high” products’ Journal approach’ International Journal nerable consumers?’ Journal of the of Analytical Toxicology 2010: of Cancer: volume131, pages Science of Food and Agriculture volume 34, pages 1 -9 E995-E1003. 2015: volume 95, pages 1979-19 17. Go vernment Chemist techni- 27. Benson S, Lennard C, Maynard P 8. National Cr iminal Intelligence cal note ‘Cumin analysis: DNA and Roux C ‘Forensic applications Service ‘The National Intelligence test for mahaleb developed’. of isotope ratio mass spectrom- model’ 2000 Available from https://www.gov. etry – A review’ Forensic Science 9. MHRA ‘Alerts and recalls for uk/government/news/cumin-analy- International 2006: volume 157, pages 1-22 Person the Tamil Way’. Berkeley: Ethnologist (2002) volume 29, 28. Loeff en PW, Maskall G, Bonthron University of California Press pages 663-692 S, Bloomfield M, and Tombling (1984) 20. P etryna A ‘Life Exposed: Biological C ‘Chemical and explosives 10. Rouse C and Hoskins J ‘Puri- Citizens after Chernobyl’. Prince- point detection through opaque ty, soul food and Sunni Islam: ton, NJ: Princeton University Press containers using spatially offset explorations and the intersection (2002) Raman spectroscopy (SORS)’ of consumption and resistance’ 21. Far mer P ‘AIDS and Accusation: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Cultural Anthropology (2004) Haiti and the Geography of Nuclear, and Explosives (CBRNE) volume 19, pages 226-49. Blame’. Berkeley: University of Sensing XII. Proc. SPIE 8018, 11. Gauvain R ‘Ritual rewards: a Californa Press (1993) 80181E (2011) consideration of three recent 22. Shao J ‘Fluid labor and blood mon- 29. Da wnay N, Ahmed R and Naif approaches to Sunni purity law’ ey: the economy of HIV/AIDS S ‘The ParaDNA® Screening Islamic Law and Society (2005) in rural Central China’ Cultural System – A case study in bringing volume 12, pages 333-93. Anthropology (2006) volume 21, forensic R&D to market’ Science 12. Masquelier A ‘The bloodstain: pages 535-69 and Justice 2014: volume 54, spirit possession, menstruation 23. Taussig K-S ‘Bovine abominations: pages 481– 486 and transgression in Niger’ genetic culture and politics in the Ethnos (2011) volume 76, pages Netherlands’ Cultural Anthro- Case Study: Notions of Purity: an 157-182 pology (2004) volume 19, pages Anthropological Perspective 13. Har ris M ‘Cows, Pigs, Wars and 305-36 1. Fr azer JG ‘The Golden Bough’. Witches: The Riddles of Culture’. 24. Br ay F ‘Science, technique, tech- New York: Macmillan (1890) London: Hutchinson (1975) nology: passages between mat- 2. Rober tson Smith W ‘The Religion 14. Thompson B ‘Scientific Fore- ter and knowledge in imperial of the Semites’. University of Ab- knowledge and Biblical Accuracy’ Chinese agriculture’ British Journal 202 erdeen: Burnett Lectures (1894) Reason and Revelation (1993) for the History of Science (2008) 3. Dur kheim É ‘Elementary Forms volume 13, page 78 http://www. volume 41, page 322 of the Religious Life’. New York: happinessonline.org/MoralCode/ 25. Latour B ‘We Have Never Been Macmillan (1954 [1912]) LiveWithTruth/p11.htm (accessed Modern’. Cambridge, Mass: Har- 4. Ahern E ‘The power and pollution 23.08.2015). vard University Press (1993) of Chinese women’, in Wolf A 15. Douglas M ‘Purity and Danger: 26. Guster son H ‘Nuclear Rites: A (ed), ‘Studies in Chinese Society’. An Analysis of the Concepts of Weapons Laboratory at the End Stanford: Stanford University Press Pollution and Taboo’. London: of the Cold War’. Berkeley: Cali- (1978) pages 269-90 Routledge & Kegan Paul (1966) fornia University Press (1996) 5. Fuller C ‘Gods, priests and purity: page 29 27. Latour B ‘The Pasteurization of on the relation between Hindu- 16. Kr avel-Tovi M ‘National mission: France’. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard ism and the caste system’ Man biopolitics, non-Jewish immigration University Press (1988) (1979) volume 14, pages 459-76 and Jewish conversion policy in 28. Har away D ‘Modest_Witness@ 6. Dumont L ‘Homo hierarchicus: contemporary Israel’ Ethnic and Second_Millennium.FemaleMan_ The Caste System and its Impli- Racial Studies (2012) volume 35, Meets_Oncomouse: Feminism cations’. Chicago, University of pages 737-56 and Technoscience’. New York: Chicago Press (1980 [1966]) 17. Douglas M ‘Purity and Danger: Routledge (1997) 7. Taussig M ‘The Devil and Com- An Analysis of the Concepts of 29. Mody CCM ‘A little dirt never modity Fetishism in South Pollution and Taboo’. London: hurt anyone: knowledge-making America’. Chapel Hill: University Routledge & Kegan Paul (1966) and contamination in materials of North Carolina Press (1980) page 41. science’ Social Studies of Science 8. Seaman G ‘The sexual politics of 18. Tilley H ‘Racial science, geopolitics, (2001) volume 31, pages 7-36 karmic retribution’. In Ahern E and empires: paradoxes of power’ 30. Bur ghart R ‘The purity of water at and Gates H (eds) ‘The Anthro- Isis (2014) volume 105, pages hospital and home as a problem pology of Taiwanese Society’, 773-81 of intercultural understanding’ Stanford: Stanford University 19. Munasinghe V ‘Nationalism in Medical Anthropology Quarterly Press (1981) pages 381-96 hybrid spaces: the production of (1996) volume 10, pages 63-74 9. Daniel VE ‘Fluid Signs: Being a impurity out of purity’ American 31. Dunn EC ‘Standards and per- son-making in Eastern Europe: a 33, pages 101-106 www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/get- tale of two sausages’ In Ong A and 5. Pr imrose S and others ‘Food Doc.do?pubRef=-//EP//NONSGM- Collier SJ (eds) ‘Global Assemblag- forensics: methods for determin- L+REPORT+A7-2013-0434+0+- es: Technology, Politics, and Ethics ing the authenticity of foodstuffs’ DOC+PDF+V0//EN as Anthropological Problems’. Trends in Food Science and Tech- 12. Johnson R ‘Food fraud and “eco- Blackwell, Oxford (2005) pages nology 2010: volume 21, pages nomically motivated adulteration” 173-193 582-590 of food and food ingredients’ 32. Dunn EC ‘Postsocialist spores: 6. Regulation (EU) 1306/2013 of the Congressional Research Service disease, bodies and the state in European Parliament and of the 2014. Available from https://www. the Republic of Georgia’ American Council of 17 December 2013 fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43358.pdf Ethnologist (2008) volume 35, on the financing, management and 13. HM Go vernment ‘Elliott Review pages 243-58 monitoring of the common agri- into the Integrity and Assurance 33. Br ay F ‘Purity and promiscuity’, in cultural policy. Available from http:// of Food Supply Networks – Bray F, Coclanis PA, Fields-Black EL eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ Final Report. A National Food and Schäfer D (eds) ‘Rice: Global ALL/?uri=CELEX:32013R1306 Crime Prevention Framework’ Networks and New Histories’. 7. Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 of 2014. Available from https:// New York: Cambridge University the European Parliament and of www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ Press (2015) pages 37-40 the Council of 28 January 2002 system/uploads/attachment_data/ 34. Inhor n M and Balen F (eds) laying down the general principles file/350726/elliot-review-final-re- ‘Infertility Around the Globe: New and requirements of food law, port-july2014.pdf Thinking on Childlessness, Gender, establishing the European Food 14. Madesisa P and others ‘Advanc- and Reproductive Technologies’. Safety Authority and laying down es of DNA-based methods for Berkeley: University of California procedures in matters of food tracing the botanical origin of Press (2002) safety. Available from http://eur-lex. food products’ Food Research 203 35. Appadurai A ‘Fear of Small Num- europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TX- International 2014: volume 60, bers: An Essay on the Geography T/?uri=celex:32002R0178 pages 163-172 of Anger’. Durham NC: Duke 8. UK Food Standards Agency 15. Zhang J ‘Review of the current ap- University Press (2006) ‘Reporting Food Fraud’. Available plication of fingerprinting allowing from https://www.food.gov.uk/en- detection of food adulteration and CHAPTER 11: forcement/the-national-food-crime- fraud in China’ Food Control 2011: FOOD AND DRINK unit/foodfraud volume 22, pages 1126-1135 1. Grocer y Manufacturers Asso- 9. European Commission Directo- 16. Ahlinder J and others ‘Chemom- ciation (GMA) and Kearney AT rate General Health and Food etrics comes to court: evidence ‘Consumer product fraud: Deter- Safety ‘Food Fraud’. Available evaluation of chem–bio threat rence and detection’ 2010. Availa- from http://ec.europa.eu/food/ agent attacks’ Journal of Chemo- ble from http://www.gmaonline.org/ safety/official_controls/food_fraud/ metrics 2015: volume 5, pages downloads/research-and-reports/ index_en.htm 267-276 consumerproductfraud.pdf 10. European P arliament resolu- Case Study: Exploiting the microbiome 2. Terracini B ‘Toxic oil syndrome tion of 14 January 2014 on the 1. Hird H, Sapp M, Thygesen H, – Ten years of progress’ World food crisis, fraud in the food Glover R, Chisolm J, Thwaites R, Health Organization 2004. Availa- chain and the control thereof Lewis E, Brereton P ‘Exploiting ble from http://www.euro.who.int/__ (2013/2091(INI)). Available from the microbiome: a new approach data/assets/pdf_file/0005/98447/ http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ for determining the provenance E84423.pdf sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&refer- of food- case study using Pacific 3. P ei X and others ‘The China mel- ence=P7-TA-2014-0011&lan- oysters’ Recent Advances in Food amine milk scandal and its impli- guage=EN&ring=A7-2013-0434 Analysis (RAFA), Prague, 3-6 cations for food safety regulation’ 11. Repor t on the food crisis, fraud November 2015 Food Policy 2011: volume 36, in the food chain and the control pages 412-420 thereof (2013/2091(INI)). Europe- Case Study: Stopping food fraud 4. Mika OJ and others ‘Mass meth- an Parliament, Committee on the 1. HM Go vernment ‘Elliott Review anol poisonings in the Czech Re- Environment, Public Health and into the Integrity and Assurance public’ Toxin Reviews 2014: volume Food Safety. Available from http:// of Food Supply Networks – Final Report’ 2014. Available from signed. Accessed 2/10/2015 standard antimalarial drugs’ Emerg https://www.gov.uk/government/ 9. FD A ‘RFID: Protecting the Drug Infect Dis 2009: volume 15, pages uploads/system/uploads/attach- Supply’ FDA Consumer March- 1753-1759 ment_data/file/350726/elliot-re- April 2005. Available from http:// 19. Kaur H and others ‘Chemical and view-final-report-july2014.pdf www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/ bioassay techniques to authenti- ucm169918.htm. Accessed cate quality of the anti-leishmanial CHAPTER 12: 2/10/2015 drug miltefosine’ Am J Trop Med COUNTERFEIT 10. T ruTag Technologies ‘Product Hyg 2015: volume 92, pages 31-8 PHARMACEUTICALS Authentication and Brand Pro- 20. Ioset JR and Kaur H ‘Simple field 1. Chaccour CJ and others ‘Travel tection Solutions’. Available from assays to check quality of current and fake artesunate: a risky busi- http://www.trutags.com/. Accessed artemisinin-based antimalarial ness’ Lancet 2012: volume 380, 2/10/2015 combination formulations’ PloS page 1120 11. ‘NanoGuardian and Capsugel ONE 2009: volume 4, e7270 2. New W ‘UN Office On Drugs Announce Global Anti-Coun- 21. GPHF ‘The GPHF-Minilab™ - And Crime Launches Anti-Coun- terfeiting Collaboration’ Phar- Protection Against Counterfeit terfeit Campaign Aimed At maceutical Manufacturing 2010. Medicines’. Available from http:// Organised Crime’ Intellectual Available from http://www. www.gphf.org/web/en/minilab. Property Watch 2014. Availa- pharmamanufacturing.com/indus- Accessed 24/09/2015 ble from http://www.ip-watch. trynews/2010/039/. Accessed 22. Risha PG and others ‘The use of org/2014/01/14/un-office-on-drugs- 2/10/2015 Minilab® to improve the testing and-crime-launches-anti-counter- 12. Co vectra. Available from http:// of regulatory authorities in re- feit-campaign-aimed-at-organised- www.covectra.com/about/. Ac- source limited settings: Tanzanian crime/. Accessed 05/10/2015 cessed 2/10/2015 experience’ Health Policy 2008: 3. Attaran A and others ‘How to 13. Almuzaini T, Choonara I and volume 87, pages 217-22 204 achieve international action on fal- Sammons H ‘Substandard and 23. Fadeyi I and others ‘Quality of sified and substandard medicines’ Counterfeit medicines: a system- the Antibiotics - Amoxicillin and BMJ 2012: volume 345, e7381 atic review of the literature’ BMJ Co-trimoxazole from Ghana, 4. WHO ‘Medicines: spurious/false- Open 2013: volume 3, e002923 Nigeria and the United Kingdom’ ly-labelled/ falsified/counterfeit 14. Newton PN and others ‘Guide- Am J Trop Med Hyg 2015: vol- (SFFC) medicines’ 2012. Available lines for field surveys of the qual- ume 92, pages 87-94 from http://www.who.int/mediacen- ity of medicines: a proposal’ PLoS 24. Hajjou M and others ‘Assessment tre/factsheets/fs275/en/. Accessed Med. 2009: volume 6, e52 of the performance of a handheld 27/09/2015 15. Newton PN and others ‘Collabo- Raman device for potential use 5. ACT Consortium ‘Analysing the rative epidemiological investigation as a screening tool in evaluat- quality and authenticity of ACT into the criminal fake artesunate ing medicines quality’ J Pharm drugs’ 2008. Available from www. trade in South East Asia’ PLoS Biomed Anal. 2013: volume 74, actconsortium.org/drugquality. Ac- Med. 2008: volume 2, e32 pages 47-55 cessed 24/09/2015 16. Cody RB , Laramee JA, Durst HD 25. Yoon WL and others ‘Application 6. WHO ‘Counterfeits: Frequently ‘Versatile new ion source for the of near-infrared spectroscopy to Asked Questions’. Available from analysis of materials in open air the determination of the sites of http://www.who.int/medicines/servic- under ambient conditions’ Anal. manufacture of proprietary prod- es/counterfeit/faqs/QandAsUpdate- Chem. 2005: volume 77, pages ucts’ J. Pharm. Biomed. Anal. 2004: July11.pdf 2297-2302 volume 34, pages 933-44 7. WHO ‘Counterfeit Drugs Kill!’. 17. Takáts Z and others ‘Mass Spec- 26. SCiO ‘Near Infra-Red Spectros- Available from http://www.who.int/ trometry Sampling Under Ambi- copy at the palm of your hand’. impact/FinalBrochureWHA2008a. ent Conditions with Desorption Available from https://www. pdf?ua=1. Accessed 24/09/2015 Electrospray Ionization’ Science consumerphysics.com/myscio/ 8. The Center for Safe Internet 2004: volume 306, pages 471–473 technology. Accessed 05/10/2015 Pharmacies ‘U.S. Track and Trace 18. Leslie T and others ‘An epidemic 27. Tabernero P and others ‘A Repeat Law Signed’ 2013. Available of Plasmodium falciparum malaria Random Survey of the Preva- from http://www.safemedsonline. in Afghan refugees in the Tribal lence of Falsified and Substandard org/2013/12/us-track-trace-law- Areas of Pakistan fuelled by sub- Antimalarials in the Lao PDR: A Change for the Better’ Am J Trop ind/44088872.pdf http://www.trustedshops.co.uk/. Med Hyg. 2015: volume 92, pages 3. Centre f or Retail Research ‘Online Accessed October 2015 95-104 Retailing: Britain, Europe, US and 13. Er ickson D and others ‘Smart- 28. Na yyar GMI ‘Poor-quality anti- Canada 2015’. Available from phone technology can be trans- malarial drugs in Southeast Asia http://www.retailresearch.org/onliner- formative to the deployment of and sub-Saharan Africa’ Lancet etailing.php lab-on-chip diagnostics’ Lab Chip Infect Dis 2012: volume 12, pages 4. European Commission ‘Protecting 2014: volume 14, pages 3159- 488–96 Intellectual Property Rights: Cus- 3164, doi: 10.1039/c4lc00142g. 29. Newton PN and others ‘Coun- toms authorities detain nearly 36 Available from http://pubs.rsc.org/ terfeit artesunate antimalarials million fake goods at EU borders en/Content/ArticleLanding/2014/LC/ in southeast Asia’ Lancet 2003: in 2013’ 2014. Available from C4LC00142G#!divAbstract volume 362, page 169 http://europa.eu/rapid/press-re- 30. Kaur H and others ‘Quality of lease_IP-14-890_en.htm Case Study: Consumer protection and Artemisinin-Based Combination 5. J Lee and others ‘Universal social media Formulations for Malaria Treat- process-inert encoding architec- 1. Intellectual Property Office ‘IP ment: Prevalence and risk factors ture for polymer microparticles’ Crime Report 2014/2015’. Avail- for poor quality medicines in Nature Materials 2014: volume able from https://www.gov.uk/gov- public facilities and private sector 13, pages 524-529, doi: 10.1038/ ernment/uploads/system/uploads/ drug outlets in Enugu, Nigeria’ nmat3938. Available from http:// attachment_data/file/461792/ PLoS ONE 2015: volume 10, www.nature.com/nmat/journal/v13/ ip-crime-report-2014-15.pdf e0125577 n5/full/nmat3938.html 31. ACT Consortium ‘Poor quality 6. Halsey A ‘The secret life of Case Study: Making the most of Trading malaria drugs: how many and baggage: Where does your Standards services where? (Research brief)’ 2015. luggage go at the airport?’ The 1. Trading Standards Institute ‘Trading 205 Available from http://www.actcon- Washington Post 2014. Available Standards Workforce Survey’ June sortium.org/publications.php/130/ from https://www.washingtonpost. 2014. Available from http://www. poor-quality-malaria-drugs-how- com/local/trafficandcommuting/ tradingstandards.uk/policy/Work- many-and-where-research-brief. where-oh-where-did-my-luggage- forceSurvey2014.cfm Accessed 24/09/2015 go/2014/11/24/16d168c6-69da- 2. National Trading Standards ‘Safety 32. Nair AS ‘In a first, drug us- 11e4-a31c-77759fc1eacc_story. at Ports and Borders Teams’. ing 3D printing technology html. Accessed October 2015 Available from http://www.nation- gets FDA nod’ Reuters 2015. 7. Gar tner ‘Predicts 2014: 3D Print- altradingstandards.uk/work-areas/ Available from http://www. ing at the Inflection Point’ 2014. safety-at-ports-and-borders-teams/. reuters.com/article/2015/08/03/ Available from http://www.gartner. Accessed October 2015 us-fda-3ddrug-idUSKCN- com/doc/2631234 0Q81YC20150803. Accessed 8. Quantum Materials ‘Quantum CHAPTER 14: 6/10/2015 dot inks’ http://www.qmcdots.com/ ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS products/products-securityink.php. 1. Defr a ‘Emissions of air pollut- CHAPTER 13: Accessed October 2015 ants in the UK, 1970 to 2013’ CONSUMER PRODUCTS 9. Ofcom ‘The Communications (2014). Available from https:// 1. Inter pol ‘Against Organized Crime: Market 2015’. Available from www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ Interpol Trafficking and Counter- http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/ system/uploads/attachment_data/ feiting Casebook 2014’. Available market-data-research/market-data/ file/388195/Emissions_of_air_pol- from http://www.interpol.int/ communications-market-reports/ lutants_statistical_release_2014.pdf Media/Files/Crime-areas/Traffick- cmr15/ 2. UK National Ecosystem Assess- ing-in-Illicit-Goods/Against-Organ- 10. Br and-i. Available from www. ment: http://uknea.unep-wcmc.org/ ized-Crime-INTERPOL-Traffick- brand-i.org. Accessed October 3. Natur al Capital Committee: ing-and-Counterfeiting-Casebook 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/ 2. OECD ‘Magnitude of counterfeit- 11. Symantec Saf e Site. Available from groups/natural-capital-committee ing and piracy of tangible prod- http://www.symantec.com/trust- 4. European En vironment Agen- ucts: an update’ 2009. Available seal/. Accessed October 2015 cy ‘SOER 2015: The European from http://www.oecd.org/sti/ 12. Trusted Shops. Available from environment — state and outlook 2015’. Available from http://www. tice-and-conduct-2014 CHAPTER 17: eea.europa.eu/soer ACCESSING FORENSICS 5. European En vironment Agency CHAPTER 16: AS A NEW MARKET ‘Late lessons from early warnings: ENCOURAGING 1. Tully G and Sullivan K with Vidaki A science, precaution, innovation’ INNOVATION and Anjomshoaa A ‘Taking Forensic 2013. Available from http://www. 1. Annual Report of the Government Science R&D to Market’ Forensic eea.europa.eu/publications/late-les- Chief Scientific Adviser ‘Innova- Science Special Interest Group sons-2 tion: managing risk, not avoiding it’ 2013 6. Fer a ‘Next Generation Sequencing Government Office for Science 2. Science and Technology Commit- & Genomics’. Available from http:// 2014: page 3. Available from https:// tee ‘The Forensic Science Service’ fera.co.uk/detectionSurveillance/next- www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ Seventh Report of Session 2010- GenSequencing.cfm system/uploads/attachment_data/ 12: HC 855, para 31 file/381906/14-1190b-innova- 3. Science and Technology Committee Case Study: Environmental DNA analysis tion-managing-risk-evidence.pdf ‘Forensic Science’ Second Report of for wildlife conservation 2. FoSci SIG ‘Forensic Science UK In- Session 2013-14: HC 610, para 11 1. Biggs J and others ‘Using eDNA novation Database’. Available from 4. Science and Technology Committee to develop a national citizen https://connect.innovateuk.org/web/ ‘Forensic Science’ Second Report of science-based monitoring pro- forensics/innovation-database Session 2013-14: HC 610, para 12 gramme for the great crested 3. Home Office ‘Security Innova- 5. Research and Markets ‘Global Fo- newt (Triturus cristatus)’ Biolog- tion and Demonstration Centre’. rensic Technologies Market Report ical Conservation 2015: volume Available from https://www.gov.uk/ 2015-2019’ (June 2015) 183, pages 19–28. Available from government/groups/security-innova- 6. Transparency Market Research http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bio- tion-and-demonstration-centre ‘Forensic Technologies Market con.2014.11.029 4. FoSci SIG ‘Forensic Science Tech- (Physical Crime Forensics, Labora- 206 nology Showcase 2015’. Available tory Forensics, Portable Forensics, SECTION 4 from https://connect.innovateuk. Forensic Tools and Products) - CHAPTER 15: org/web/forensics/events-view/-/ Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, events/27824644 Growth, Trends and Forecast, 2013 Case Study: Next-generation digital 5. The Chartered Society of Forensic – 2019’ (August 2013) forensics Science. Available from http://www. 7. ‘About the What Works Centre’. 1. National Cr ime Agency ‘National csofs.org/ Available from http://whatworks. Strategic Assessment of Serious and 6. The Association of Forensic Service college.police.uk/About/Pages/default. Organised Crime 2015’. Available Providers. Available from http://www. aspx from http://www.nationalcrimeagency. afsp.org.uk/ 8. CPS ‘The Code for Crown Prose- gov.uk/publications/560-national-stra- cutors’. Available from http://www. tegic-assessment-of-serious-and-or- Case Study: Innovate UK and the cps.gov.uk/publications/code_for_ ganised-crime-2015/file Forensic Science Special Interest Group crown_prosecutors/ 1. Li B and others ‘The application 9. Ministr y of Justice ‘Rules and Case Study: Skills and competency for the of visible wavelength reflectance Practice Directions’. Available from future hyperspectral imaging for the http://www.justice.gov.uk/courts/proce- 1. House of Commons Science and detection and identification of dure-rules/criminal/rulesmenu-2015 Technology Committee ‘Forensic blood stains’ Science & Justice 2014: 10. CPS ‘Streamlined Forensic Report- Science on Trial’ 2005: HC96-I. volume 54, page 432 ing Guidance and Toolkit’ http:// Available from http://www.publica- www.cps.gov.uk/legal/s_to_u/scien- tions.parliament.uk/pa/cm200405/ Case Study: Biosensors in forensics tific_evidence/sfr_guidance_and_ cmselect/cmsctech/96/96i.pdf 1. Fr ascione N, Gooch J, Abbate V and toolkit/ 2. The Forensic Science Regulator Daniel B ‘Fluorogenic displacement 11. CPS ‘Core Foundation Principles ‘Forensic science providers: codes biosensors for PSA detection using for Forensic Science Providers’. of practice and conduct’ 2014. antibody-functionalised quantum Available from http://www.cps.gov. Available from https://www.gov. dot nanoparticles’ RSC Advances uk/legal/s_to_u/scientific_evidence/ uk/government/publications/foren- 2015: volume 5, pages 6595-6598 core_foundation_principles_for_fo- sic-science-providers-codes-of-prac- rensic_science_providers/ 12. Dstl ‘About us’. Available from https://www.gov.uk/government/ ANNEXE organisations/defence-sci- ence-and-technology-laboratory/ Bayes’ Theorem about 13. Home Office ‘Counter-ter - Bayes’ theorem gives a rational method for updating our beliefs in the light of rorism strategy (CONTEST)’ new evidence. In our example the prosecution hypothesis (H) is that the de- 2011. Available from https:// fendant left the footprint, and the defence hypothesis (~H) is that someone else www.gov.uk/government/publi- left the footprint. cations/counter-terrorism-strate- The expert tells us the probability of the match evidence (E) given the defence gy-contest hypothesis: P(E|~H) = 1/1000. The probative value of this evidence is given by 14. Council of Europe ‘CASE OF S. the likelihood ratio (LR), which compares the probability of the evidence under AND MARPER v. THE UNIT- the prosecution and defence hypotheses: ED KINGDOM’ 2008. Available from http://www.coe.int/t/dghl/ In our example, we assume that P(E|H) = 1. Thus the LR = 1000. In words, the standardsetting/dataprotection/ evidence is a thousand times more likely on the prosecution rather than the Judgments/S.%20AND%20 defence hypothesis. So the evidence is positive support for the prosecution. MARPER%20v.%20THE%20 UNITED%20KINGDOM%20 But what we really want to know is the probability that the defendant left the EN.pdf print given the evidence, P(H|E). Bayes’ theorem tells us how to compute this. It 15. Silv erman B ‘Research and De- is easiest to use the odds version: velopment in Forensic Science: Posterior odds = prior odds x LR A Review’ 2011. Available from https://www.gov.uk/government/ In words, our updated belief in the hypothesis given the evidence is our prior 207 publications/research-and-devel- belief multiplied by the likelihood ratio. opment-in-forensic-science-review The prior odds for H is simply P(H)/P(~H). In our example we assumed P(H) = 1/10000, and thus P(~H) = 9999/10000. Putting these values into Bayes’ theorem: Thus after updating on the evidence, the defence hypothesis is about ten times more likely than the prosecution hypothesis. Converting the posterior odds to the posterior probability: P(H|E) 1/11, and therefore P(~H|E) 10/11. The prosecutor’s fallacy involves conflating P(E|~H) with P(~H|E). This is a logical error, and the two probabilities are very different in this example. They will only take approximately the same values if P(H) = P(~H); but in most cases P(~H)>P(H) and the fallacy will greatly underestimate P(~H|E) and thus over- estimate P(H|E). © Crown copyright 2015 This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected]. Where we have identifi ed any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned. This publication is available from www.gov.uk/go-science Contact us if you have any enquiries about this publication, including requests for alternative formats, at: Government Offi ce for Science 1 Victoria Street London SW1H 0ET Tel: 020 7215 5000 Email: [email protected]

GS/15/37B

GO_Science_Innovation_COVERS_v3.indd 2 30/11/2015 16:25