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City Union Bank[ Engineers India] CITY UNION BANK (INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT) (BUSINESS IS NOT SCIENCE, IT'S MUCH MORE AN “ART OF ECONOMICS”) City Union Bank Ltd. November 5, 2020 Analyst: Avinash Tanawade 022 67141442 Initiating Coverage @ Dalal & Broacha BUY SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE Current Price 158 City Union Bank (CUB) is one of the very few banks, which has reported consistent returns (RoA & RoE above 1.5% & 15% for the last 12 yrs except for FY20) over the years. The returns were Target Price 198 supported by stable margins (NIM above 3% for the last 10 yrs) and better operating efficiency (C/I Upside (%) 25 ratio below 45% for the last 20 yrs). Bank has a strong understanding of local markets (ie. Tamil Nadu) 52 Week Range 110/249 and focused largely on working capital finance to small manufacturers and traders. Its lending philosophy is founded on the principle of providing small-ticket secured loans (~1:1 loan to collateral Key Share Data ratio) that helps it to control asset quality. Over the years, the bank has been growing steadily with a Market MM Market Cap (Rs.Bn) 117 conservative approach and aims to continue with this strategy for the next two or three years before embarking on an aggressive growth trajectory. We strongly believe that there is an ample opportunity Market Cap (US$ Mn) 1564 for the Bank in the years to come to expand its presence across the length & breadth of the country No of o/s shares (Mn) 738 and become a major player in the National Banking Space. Face Value 1 Asset quality to bounce back strongly: The bank’s stable asset quality was supported by its granular BSE Code 532210 nature of advances, high level of collateralization, and greater exposure towards working capital NSE Code CUB facilities (over 2/3 of advances). However, we believe slippages will be elevated in the next 2-3 Bloomberg CUBK:IN quarters not just for CUB but also for the whole banking industry as the asset classification standstill benefit ended on Aug 31, 2020. According to management, economic activity has improved on the Price performance ground in the last few months, with customer transactions at 80-85% of pre-covid levels. Customer interactions have been encouraging from an asset quality standpoint. The management guides for slippages of ~3.5% in FY21E, and expects to restructure 4.5-5% of loans (mostly from the moratorium book). However, we have conservatively estimate slippage for FY21 at 4.1% and FY22 at 2.5% and GNPA/ NNPA at 5.5/2.5% in FY21 and 4.1/1.8% in FY22. Even though the NPA level looks elevated, we expect minimum risk as 99% of total lending is secured in nature, which helps in the easy recovery. Historically, the bank’s average LGD has been maintained at ~30% for the last few years. Strong Liability Franchise: CUB has a granular deposit base, with top 20 deposits constitutes less than 7% and only 11% of the total deposits are above Rs 2 Cr high, resulting in a stable liability profile. Its deposits also have a higher maturity. Furthermore, the bank has a healthy asset liability management with 67% of deposits and 51% of advances having a maturity period of one to three years in FY20. The bank balances its asset-liability by lending to small businesses (classified as retail) through retail term deposits that help maintain the spread. Operating efficacy remained intact: CUB has been able to contain its opex growth better than its peers, which is evident from its cost to income ratio (C/I ratio) at 43% in FY20 compared with 50%- 74% for midcap peers. The bank’s small size and niche positioning generate better pricing power on the lending front leading to higher spread (above 3% for the last 10 yrs). Furthermore, Bank continued % Shareholding Sep-20 Jun-20 to upgrade and strengthen its Information Technology framework to ensure smooth and secure customer friendly Banking. It is this digital strategy traction that has aided in the employees per branch FII 18.67 21.65 metric to decline from 10-11 to 8 in the last few years. DII 27.52 30.10 Outlook and valuation Others 53.81 48.25 CUB has all the right ingredients, which include conservative management, unparalleled lending Total 100 100 franchise, stable margins, superior return ratios across cycles and a well capitalized balance sheet to deliver steady performance over the years. With ~70% of the branches in rural and semi urban regions, the bank’s asset quality will have a relatively lower impact of the pandemic. At CMP, the stock trades at 2.1 times its one-year forward book value, lower than its three-year historical average of 2.8 times and peak valuation of 3.8 times book value. We assign a P/AB (x) of 2.2 to FY23E Adj BVPS of INR 90 and arrive at a Target Price of Rs 198. Financials (In INR Mn) Year NII PPOP PAT ROA ROE Adj. BVPS P/ABVPS FY20 16752 13414 4763 1.0 9.4 61 2.6 FY21E 18778 15225 3721 0.7 6.8 64 2.5 FY22E 21232 17425 8145 1.4 13.5 76 2.1 FY23E 25298 21045 10728 1.6 15.6 90 1.8 Page 1 City Union Bank Ltd. November 5, 2020 Analyst: Avinash Tanawade 022 67141442 Initiating Coverage @ Dalal & Broacha Small in size but great on returns… CUB has a unique business model, which sustained better returns (RoA & RoE above 1.5% & 15% for last 12 yrs except for FY20) across various business cycles. Bank’s small size and niche positioning provide a better pricing power on the lending front leading to higher returns on its assets as well as equity employed. Core Business Performance FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e FY23e NII/ avg. total assets (%) 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 Non-interest income/ avg. total assets (%) 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Opex/ avg. total assets (%) 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 PPOP/ avg. total assets (%) 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2 Provisions/ avg. total assets (%) 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.0 Return on Avg. assets (%) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.7 Leverage (x) 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 Return on equity (%) 15.2 15.3 15.2 9.4 7.2 14.4 15.8 (Source: Company, Dalal & Broacha Research) We believe the bank is capable of maintain higher returns while continuing with its business strategy as a niche banker for small companies due to its better understanding of southern market and high yielding working capital loans oriented business model. Superior return matrix as compared to its peers Axis DCB ICICI IndusInd RBL FEDERAL ROE (%) CUB HDFC BK KVB Kotak Bk Karnataka Bk Bk Bk Bk Bk Bk Bk FY07 21.0 22.0 3.2 19.5 13.4 7.1 16.5 11.4 2.9 21.4 15.1 FY08 17.6 21.8 8.1 17.7 11.7 6.9 18.5 11.4 7.2 13.6 18.5 FY09 19.1 19.9 (15.2) 17.2 7.8 11.7 18.6 7.5 9.2 12.1 18.2 FY10 19.2 20.6 (14.6) 16.3 8.0 19.5 22.6 13.5 5.5 10.3 9.9 FY11 19.3 23.5 3.9 16.7 9.7 19.3 22.3 14.5 1.7 12.0 9.6 FY12 20.3 24.9 8.1 18.7 11.2 19.3 20.8 14.7 5.9 14.4 9.8 FY13 18.5 22.3 11.7 20.3 13.1 17.8 19.0 15.6 6.7 13.9 12.8 FY14 17.4 18.9 14.8 21.3 14.0 17.6 13.5 13.8 5.3 12.6 10.5 FY15 17.8 16.3 14.5 19.4 14.5 19.0 12.1 14.1 10.1 13.7 14.0 FY16 16.8 15.5 11.9 18.3 11.6 16.6 12.9 11.0 11.2 6.0 11.7 FY17 6.8 15.2 10.8 17.9 10.7 15.3 12.6 13.2 12.2 9.8 10.8 FY18 0.5 15.3 10.9 17.9 6.8 16.5 6.1 12.5 11.5 8.3 6.7 FY19 7.2 15.2 12.0 16.5 3.2 13.3 3.3 12.2 12.2 9.8 9.2 FY20 2.1 9.4 11.2 16.4 7.3 14.7 3.6 13.1 5.6 11.1 7.9 (Source: Company, Dalal & Broacha Research) Page 2 City Union Bank Ltd. November 5, 2020 Analyst: Avinash Tanawade 022 67141442 Initiating Coverage @ Dalal & Broacha Operating efficiency CUB is one of the best in terms of operating efficiency. Its C/I ratio stood at 43% in FY20 compared with 50%-74% for midcap peers. The bank’s superior opex control was supported by its (1) intelligent HR strategy working to keep a young, efficient workforce (2) a contained, focused branch expansion strategy and (3) strong traction for digital strategy.
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