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Australian Wine Grape Production Projections to 2013–14

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Australian Wine Grape Production Projections to 2013–14 Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14 Caroline Gunning-Trant and Walter Shafron Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences Research report 12.3 May 2012 Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14 ABARES © Commonwealth of Australia Ownership of intellectual property rights Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia (referred to as the Commonwealth). Creative Commons licence All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en. The full licence terms are available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: Gunning-Trant, C & Shafron, W 2012, Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14, ABARES research report 12.3, Canberra, May. CC BY 3.0. Cataloguing data Gunning-Trant, C & Shafron, W 2012, Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14, ABARES research report 12.3, Canberra, May. ISSN: 1447-8358 ISBN: 978-1-74323-021-3 ABARES project: 43050 Internet Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14 is available at: daff.gov.au/abares/publications. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010| Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001 Email [email protected] Web daff.gov.au/abares Inquiries regarding the licence and any use of this document should be sent to: [email protected]. The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in the preparation and compilation of the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law. Acknowledgements The contribution of yield estimates from individuals in wine-producing regions around Australia is gratefully acknowledged. ABARES also gratefully acknowledges the support of the Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation. i Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14 ABARES Foreword The Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation commissioned ABARES to produce wine grape production projections for the three years 2011–12 to 2013–14. Similar reports have been produced annually since 1988 to provide information for both wine grape producers and winemakers to assist them to plan their production programs based on projected grape supply. While the 2011–12 growing season in many wine grape producing zones was generally favourable, in New South Wales and north-east Victoria the season could be characterised as cool and wet. This meant vigilant canopy management practices were required to control the incidence of disease in the vines. Growers in these two states also endured a significant rainfall event in late February through to early March, which severely affected some vineyards. Yields across most varieties are generally reported to be lower this season compared with the longer- term average, largely on account of reduced fruit set but also because of some weather-related losses later in the season. Total wine grape production in 2011–12 is forecast to be around 1.53 million tonnes, 2 per cent lower than the previous vintage. In the two years to 2013–14, production is projected to recover to about 1.63 million tonnes. This projection is based on current plantings and assumes that favourable seasonal conditions will allow a return to average wine grape yields. Paul Morris Executive Director ABARES May 2012 ii Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14 ABARES Contents Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Wine grape production in 2010–11 ............................................................................................. 1 Wine grape production 2011–12 to 2013–14 ......................................................................... 2 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Overview of prices and industry developments ..................................................................... 5 2 Wine grape production projections to 2013–14 ..................................................................... 7 Wine grape production, 2010–11 ................................................................................................. 7 Wine grape production, 2011–12 ................................................................................................. 9 Projected wine grape production, 2012–13 and 2013–14 ................................................. 9 Production in the warm climate zones .................................................................................... 13 Production in the cool climate zones........................................................................................ 14 3 Wine stocks ......................................................................................................................................... 18 Appendix A – Method ................................................................................................................................. 20 Projection procedure ...................................................................................................................... 20 Calibration........................................................................................................................................... 21 Yields ..................................................................................................................................................... 22 Aggregation of regional projections ......................................................................................... 22 Appendix B – Australian wine grape production zones and varieties .................................... 23 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 25 Tables Table 1 Production of wine grapes in Australia ................................................................................. 2 Table 2 Area removed by grubbing or abandoned ............................................................................ 8 Table 3 Estimated and projected wine grape bearing areas in Australia, by zone ............ 10 Table 4 Estimated and projected wine grape production in Australia, by zone ................. 11 Table B1 Wine grape zones and regions of Australia .................................................................... 23 Table B2 Australian wine grape categories....................................................................................... 24 iii Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14 ABARES Figures Figure 1 Average Australian red wine grape price............................................................................ 6 Figure 2 Average Australian white wine grape price ....................................................................... 6 Figure 3 Australian wine grape production ...................................................................................... 12 Figure 4 Australian wine grape production, by category ............................................................ 12 Figure 5 Stocks of Australian wine ....................................................................................................... 18 Figure 6 Wine stocks-to-forward sales ratios .................................................................................. 19 Maps Map 1 Wine grape zone of Australia ....................................................................................................... 4 iv Australian wine grape production projections to 2013–14 ABARES Summary This report provides estimates of wine grape production for the 2010–11 vintage and production projections for 2011–12, 2012–13 and 2013–14. Estimates have been made for total wine grape production in each of Australia’s wine grape producing zones. In 2011 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) collected vineyard data as part of its Agricultural Census, but reduced its coverage to total wine grape production, bearing and non- bearing areas, and area removed from production. Before 2011, the ABS vineyards
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