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Will the 21St Century Be an Asian Century?: a Global Perspective

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Will the 21St Century Be an Asian Century?: a Global Perspective ERINA Discussion Paper No.1702e Will the 21st Century Be an Asian Century?: A Global Perspective Masahiro KAWAI Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo and Representative Director and Director-General Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia October, 2017 Niigata, Japan ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR NORTHEAST ASIA Will the 21st Century Be an Asian Century?: A Global Perspective By Masahiro KAWAI Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo and Representative Director and Director-General Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia 31 October 2017 Abstract: This paper discusses the issue of whether the 21st century will be an “Asian century.” According to a study commissioned by the Asian Development Bank, Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, Asian countries will keep growing and eventually account for more than half of global GDP by 2050. The study, however, cautions that developing Asia may fall into the “middle-income trap” where growth stagnates due to the lack of productivity growth. This paper provides baseline projections for the world economy up to 2050 and argues that the “Asian century” scenario may be interpreted as one of the high growth cases for the model, and Asia may face the risk of stagnation due to the middle-income trap and/or “Asian conflict” resulting from political, security, and military tensions in Asia. The paper argues that in order to realise an “Asian century,” developing Asia needs to focus on technological progress, inclusive growth, environmental sustainability, institutional and governance quality, and regional cooperation and integration. It also points to possible global governance structures which are alternatives to an Asia-centric world, such as those of a “China century,” “American century 2.0,” “G-2,” “G- 0,” and a “multi-polar” world. As the two major powers in this region, China and Japan need to cooperate with each other to maintain regional peace and security, and help realise the “Asian century.” The paper concludes that even when the “Asian century” arrives and Asia dominates the world in terms of economic size, it does not necessarily mean that Asia will dominate the world politically, institutionally, militarily, or in soft power. The 21st century will likely be a “multi- polar” world where the traditional powers of the West (the United States and European Union countries), Japan, and new rising powers (China, India, and other major emerging economies) collectively manage global economic and political affairs. Acknowledgements: This paper results from the presentation by the author to the international workshop, "The Asian Century and China–Japan Cooperation," organised by the Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore and the Global Security Research Institute of Keio University, which was held in Tokyo on 16–17 January 2017. The author is grateful for the constructive comments provided by Sahoko Kaji, Huang Jing, June Park, and other conference participants, to Tomoo Kikuchi and Masaya Sakuragawa for coordinating this project, and to David Arnett and Blake Harley Berger for excellent editorial assistance. Key Words: Asian century, Asian stagnation, middle-income trap, multi-polar world, China- Japan cooperation. JEL Classification: E01, F01, F02, F55, O40 Contact: Masahiro KAWAI: Professor Emeritus, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo ([email protected]); Representative Director and Director-General, Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia ([email protected]). 0 Will the 21st Century Be an Asian Century?: A Global Perspective Masahiro KAWAI 1. Introduction Emerging economies, particularly those in Asia, have grown fast over the past four decades. Because of Asia’s high potential for further sustained economic growth, an Asian Development Bank (ADB)-commissioned report (Kohli, Sharma, and Sood, 2011) has predicted the 21st century to be an “Asian century,” in which Asia produces 52% of global GDP. This paper provides an overall assessment of the issues surrounding the 21st century becoming an “Asian century.” There are several questions the paper posits. Will the "Asian century" scenario be realised, and what is needed to realise it? What are the factors that can impede the fruition of the "Asian century"? More fundamentally, what is an “Asian century”? Does it mean that Asia will dominate the world economically, politically, and militarily? What are alternative scenarios and how can Japan support the realisation of an Asian century? What is needed to avoid major conflicts between the rising powers in Asia, such as China, and the existing powers, such as the United States (US), and to maintain peaceful relations? The structure of this paper is as follows. Section two focuses on the re-emergence of Asia and presents a baseline projection for the world economy (measured at PPP in 2011 international prices) up to 2050. Section three explains the optimistic “Asian century” scenario as having high growth projections. Section four provides the pessimistic "Asian stagnation" scenario, which may arise due to the middle-income trap and/or conflict in Asia. This scenario may be viewed as having low growth projections. Section five discusses the challenges and policy priorities for developing Asia in achieving the “Asian century.” Section six considers the political implications of the “Asian century” scenario and presents global governance structures that are alternative to an Asia-dominant world. Section seven explores the role of Japan in supporting the realisation of the “Asian century” and how China and Japan can cooperate. Section 8 concludes the paper. 2. Re-emergence of Asia in the World Economy Many Asian economies have achieved rapid economic growth over the last forty or more years. This strong performance has led to significant increases in real gross domestic product (GDP) in many countries, particularly China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Given that further strong growth is expected for Asia, the 21st century is sometimes called the "Asian century." This section provides growth projections for various countries in Asia and the rest of the world. 2-1. Asia’s long-term economic growth Asian economies have achieved remarkable economic success over the last several decades. Growth has occurred in a sequential manner, one country after another, following the well- known flying geese pattern. In the post-World War II period, Japan was the first country which started to grow successfully out of the destruction caused by the war and this was followed by the newly industrialised economies (NIEs) of Asia (Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Singapore, and Taiwan), China, and ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam). These countries have pursued outward-oriented industrialisation strategies. More recently, India has joined this group although the country has grown based on its domestic consumption and service sectors. The rapid economic growth of these economies has been accompanied by impressive poverty reduction and overall social and human development. 1 A World Bank study (World Bank 1993) called the earlier success of Japan, the NIEs, and some ASEAN countries the “East Asian Miracle,” and identified several factors behind the miracle: (i) ensuring low inflation and competitive exchange rates to support outward-oriented growth; (ii) building human capital, a critical factor for rapid growth with equity; (iii) creating effective and secure financial systems to mobilise savings and channel them into productive investment; (iv) limiting price distortions to draw resources into labour-intensive production in the early stages of development and then into capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive activities later; (v) absorbing foreign technology via licensing and/or inward foreign direct investment (FDI); and (vi) supporting agriculture to promote food security and reduce rural– urban income differentials. This World Bank study was completed before fully observing China’s and India's success stories. China, in particular, has achieved its own economic miracle and India is currently creating one. From these more recent experiences, some additional factors behind Asia's miracle can be pointed out: (vii) the ability to flexibly expand supply capacity in response to favourable external environments; (viii) pragmatism in learning lessons from successful neighbours; (ix) institutional development and business predictability; (x) good communication and coordination between the public and private sectors; and (xi) use of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to support trade and inward FDI through infrastructure development (transport, power, energy, water, and information and communication technology (ICT)). Krugman (1994) observed that East Asian economies achieved rapid growth in large part through the mobilisation of resources (factor inputs), as in the former Soviet Union, and concluded that the miracle was based on perspiration, not inspiration, and that the growth contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) was limited. However, one needs to appreciate the fact that in the early stages of economic development, growth tends to be induced by factor accumulation and rapid migration of labour from rural to urban areas, which tends to raise observed TFP growth. Thus the miracle was no myth. Developing Asia’s clustered sequential development
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