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United SSE 50 China ETF United SSE 50 China ETF Annual Report for the financial year ended 30th June 2018 United SSE 50 China ETF (Constituted under a Trust Deed in the Republic of Singapore) MANAGER UOB Asset Management Ltd Registered Address: 80 Raffles Place UOB Plaza Singapore 048624 Company Registration No. : 198600120Z Tel: 1800 22 22 228 DIRECTORS OF UOB ASSET MANAGEMENT Lee Wai Fai Eric Tham Kah Jin Peh Kian Heng Thio Boon Kiat TRUSTEE State Street Trust (SG) Limited 168 Robinson Road #33-01, Capital Tower Singapore 068912 CUSTODIAN / ADMINISTRATOR / REGISTRAR State Street Bank and Trust Company, acting through its Singapore Branch 168 Robinson Road #33-01, Capital Tower Singapore 068912 AUDITOR PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP 7 Straits View, Marina One East Tower, Level 12 Singapore 018936 -1- United SSE 50 China ETF (Constituted under a Trust Deed in the Republic of Singapore) A) Fund Performance Since Inception 12 November 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr 2009 3 mth 6 mth 1 yr Ann Ann Ann Ann Fund Performance/ % % % Comp Comp Comp Comp Benchmark Returns Growth Growth Growth Ret Ret Ret Ret United SSE 50 China ETF -10.71 -13.98 -3.86 -9.04 7.34 N/A -1.52 Benchmark -8.85 -11.87 1.56 -3.87 12.86 N/A 2.54 Source: Morningstar. Note: The performance returns of the Fund are in Singapore Dollar based on a NAV-to-NAV basis with dividends and distributions reinvested, if any. The benchmark of the Fund: SSE 50 Index. For the twelve months ended 30 June 2018, the net asset value of the Fund decreased 3.86% on a net asset value basis in Singapore Dollar terms, compared to the benchmark SSE 50 Index which increased 1.56% during the same period. Economic and Market Review The onshore Chinese equity market, as represented by the SSE 50 Index, saw a volatile 12-month period ending June 2018. The China equity markets rallied on the back of better than expected economic data and reported corporate earnings. The Chinese government’s supply side reforms, capacity rationalisation and resilient demand significantly boosted industrial profits, while consumption and services continued to be healthy. China economic indicators were generally positive over the period despite the authorities tightening monetary conditions in a bid to rein in financial leverage. China’s 19th Party Congress in October 2017 reinforced the government’s commitment to supply side and state owned enterprise (SOE) reforms, environmental protection and rebalancing. These initiatives were welcomed by the stock market as China was seen paving the way for further integration with the global economy in a cooperative manner. As a result, large sectors in the benchmark such as Financials, Industrials and Consumer Staples benefitted strongly from the bullish market sentiment. Things took a weaker turn in the latter half of the reporting period. The Greater China equity markets ended the first half of 2018 relatively flat, underperforming developed markets, but outperforming most other emerging markets and Asia. -2- United SSE 50 China ETF (Constituted under a Trust Deed in the Republic of Singapore) A) Fund Performance (continued) Markets started 2018 strongly in January as good macroeconomic data, positive earnings revisions and weaker United States Dollar continued to drive stock prices higher. The tide then corrected from February onwards. Market weakness was led by the flash correction in the US markets and surge in the 10-year US Treasury yields as investors started worrying about tightening measures and the mounting US fiscal deficit. There were further headwinds for China equities due to concerns over domestic policy and monetary tightening with the government’s unrelenting drive for financial and economic deleveraging. Headline news of rising bond defaults also rattled the financial sector despite strong evidence of improving non-performing loans. From March onwards, mounting trade tensions between the US and China further took its toll on the onshore China equity market, culminating in June when it looked increasingly likely that US-China trade tensions would escalate after talks between both sides broke down. On a full year basis, heavy-weight sectors such as Financials and Industrials ended the twelve months in the red. Other sectors such as Utilities and Telecommunication Services which are traditionally perceived as safe-havens ended the period badly as well. Consumer Staples held on to its earlier gains and posted a strong finish at the end of the period despite the market volatility, and more than offset the performance drags by the other mentioned sectors. As of 12 June 2017, five constituents changed during the index review and rebalancing for the SSE50 Index, effective between 12 June 2017 and 12 December 2017. Shanghai Oriental Pearl Media Co Ltd (Consumer Discretionary), China Citic Bank Corporation Ltd (Financials), Industrial Securities Co Ltd (Financials), Sinolink Securities Co Ltd (Financials) and AECC Aviation Power Co Ltd (Industrials), were removed from the index and replaced by Bank of Shanghai Co Ltd (Financials), Bank of Jiangsu Co Ltd (Financials), China Galaxy Securities Co Ltd (Financials), China Fortune Land Development Co Ltd (Financials) and Greenland Holdings Co Ltd (Financials). As of 11 December 2017, five constituents changed during the index review and rebalancing for the SSE50 Index, effective between 11 December 2017 and 11 June 2018. Tsinghua Tongfang Co Ltd (Information Technology), Beijing Xinwei Technology Group Co Ltd (Information Technology), Dongxing Securities Co Ltd (Financials), Everbright Securities Co Ltd (Financials) ad Founder Securities Co Ltd (Financials), were removed from the index and replaced by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd (Materials), Wanhua Chemical Group Co Ltd (Materials), Power Construction Corporation of China Co Ltd (Industrials), Zheshang Securities Co Ltd (Financials) and China Molybdenum Co Ltd (Materials). As of 11 June 2018, five constituents changed during the index review and rebalancing for the SSE50 Index, effective between 11 June 2018 and 10 December 2018. Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co Ltd (Health Care), Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd (Materials), Qingdao Haier Co Ltd (Consumer Discretionary), Sanan Optoelectronics Co Ltd (Information Technology) and 360 Security Technology Inc (Information Technology), were removed from the index and replaced by Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (Health Care), Haitong Securities Company Limited (Financials), Bank of Jiangsu Co Ltd (Financials), Power Construction Corporation of China Ltd (Financials) and China National Nuclear Power Co Ltd (Industrials). -3- United SSE 50 China ETF (Constituted under a Trust Deed in the Republic of Singapore) A) Fund Performance (continued) Outlook and Fund Strategy China’s fundamentals have continued to strengthen in 2018. Economic growth is steady with the purchasing manager’s index (PMIs) in positive territory, corporate and industrial profits have continued to grow strongly helped by capacity rationalisation, improving utilisation and firmly positive producer price inflation. Property sales are steady and corporate earnings continue to be revised up. However, investors have been spooked by a series of concerns including rising corporate bond defaults, slower than expected May activity data, the accelerated depreciation of the Renminbi since mid-June and last but not least, escalating United States-China trade tensions as United States President Trump carries through with his threat to impose trade tariffs and restrict China investments in the United States. On the issue of rising bond defaults, we note that this has been an ongoing trend since the beginning of the year as the government continues to rein shadow banking and promote more efficient credit risk pricing. It is part and parcel of China’s financial reform path. While the headline news looks alarming, it should be noted that the rate of defaults is just 0.7% of the total corporate bond stock at the end of the first half of 2018 which does not appear to be an indication of systemic risk. May 2018 activity data came in lower than expected. We believe this reflects the lagged effects of slower credit creation in the shadow banking system, but this is in the context of strong activity data since the start of the year. Meanwhile, the manufacturing and services PMI are still well above 50. To counter the fall in shadow banking, we expect the authorities to ease policy in a targeted manner, such as cutting the reserve requirement ratio (a 50 basis point cut was announced in June), keeping interbank rates low, and reviving investment projects to support growth. The Renminbi depreciation accelerated in the last week of June, reviving fears of a scenario in August 2015, when the market experienced a sharp correction. However, we do note that the Renminbi still remains one of the strongest currencies year to date in the emerging markets. It has only depreciated 2% vs the United States Dollar in 2018. Ultimately, the Renminbi is still a controlled currency and the Chinese central bank has pledged to refrain from using it as an instrument in a trade war. On the United States-China trade war, while we assess the growth and earnings impact on the market as muted, we think a long drawn out trade war and escalating retaliation beyond trade is damaging for both countries. Our base case remains that there should not be a full blown trade war, and there should be some negotiated settlement assuming rationality from both sides. Nonetheless, we acknowledge that trade tensions will persist and remain an overhang on the Greater China markets. However we believe much of this has already been priced into the markets. After the recent correction, the MSCI China 1-year forward price to earnings ratio of 11x is trading at close to its 10-year historical mean and close to the levels at early 2016 when economic and corporate earnings were much weaker than now. China ‘A’ share valuations are even more distressed at a price to earnings ratio of 10x, trading below the early 2016 levels.
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