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February Update ETF Bi-Weekly Capital-Market Liquidity to Spur Gold/Silver Etfs On

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February Update ETF Bi-Weekly Capital-Market Liquidity to Spur Gold/Silver Etfs On February 3, 2012 ETF RESEARCH February update ETF Bi-weekly Capital-market liquidity to spur gold/silver ETFs on Asia-Pacific stock markets put in solid performances in January, rising a notable 3.1% in Indonesia and 10.6% in Hong Kong. US dollar-denominated returns were even higher thanks to the weakness of the greenback against Asian currencies—for example, the Kospi returned 7.1% for the month in won terms, while its USD-denominated return reached 10.7%. Amid rising expectations of an approaching resolution to the eurozone crisis, investors worldwide showed a growing preference for risky assets, which drove the technical market rebounds. Alongside stock markets, the commodity market also bounced back, led by strong demand for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products. Asia-Pacific ETF markets enjoyed a net inflow of USD7.5b in January, with USD3.7b flowing in during the first half of the month and USD3.8b during the second. ETFs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange saw the largest net inflow of funds (USD2.6b), followed by Osaka (USD1.3b), Tokyo (USD0.9b), Korea (USD0.47b), and Taiwan (USD0.33b). We believe the increased global appetite for riskier assets in Analysts January sparked asset relocation back into ETFs and other index plays. Gyun Jun [email protected] Eight ETFs were newly listed on Asia Pacific markets in January—five in Korea, two in 822 2020 7044 Hong Kong, and one in Australia. As both new listings in Hong Kong were made by Korean ITCs, almost all of the new ETFs were related to Korea. For reference, most Trisha Sung ETFs newly listed in the US market in January were small-cap ETFs, low-volatility [email protected] ETFs, or volatility-response ETFs. 822 2020 7823 Top ETF performers over the past two weeks were tracking non-ferrous metals, the Brazilian or Russian stock exchanges, or financial sectors (ie, banking and securities). Most of the worst performers were VIX ETFs, inverse ETFs, currency ETFs, and consumer goods and healthcare ETFs. As most Asia/Pacific ETFs rose amid a recovery in the capital markets, the number of Asia/Pacific ETFs with negative ytd investment yields fell to below 50 (or 10% of all ETFs). Risk appetite grew in the world’s capital markets at the start of this year. Commodity and stock markets worldwide rallied as liquidity rose, back by ultra-low interest rate policies in the developed world and efforts to resolve the European debt crisis. With the current capital-market environment likely to be sustained into mid-1Q, we recommend increasing exposure to commodity ETFs (especially those linked to gold and silver) and BRICs/frontier ETFs. We also recommend a short-term approach to banking and shipbuilding/marine sector ETFs that were oversold last year. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Samsung Securities. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any form or by any means, transmitted, copied, or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Samsung Securities. This memorandum is based upon information available to the public. While we have taken all reasonable care to ensure its reliability, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Samsung Securities shall not be liable whatsoever for any loss, direct or consequential, arising from any use of this memorandum or its contents. Statements, if any, relating to affiliates of Samsung Securities are also based upon information available to the public and do not necessarily represent the views of the management of such affiliates. This report has been prepared without any undue external influence or interference, and accurately reflects the views of the analyst(s) covering the company or companies herein. Samsung Securities (Korea) www.samsungpop.com February 3, 2012 Derivatives Spot ETF volume Figure 1. Newly-listed ETF products, by half (No of products) 80 73 70 60 55 50 50 45 46 40 37 30 30 19 20 20 9 8 10 7 6 33 0 1H05 2H05 1H06 2H06 1H07 2H07 1H08 2H08 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H11 2H11 1H12 Note: As of Jan 31; excludes delisted products Source: Bloomberg, Samsung Securities Table 1. New ETFs per year, by exchange Exchange 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Australia 2 2 1 4 15 12 1 Bangkok 1 1 1 1 5 Hong Kong 1 1 2 3 1 3 6 12 20 8 2 Indonesia 1 Korea 2 8 5 15 18 16 44 5 Bursa Malaysia 1 1 1 2 Mumbai 1 1 Nagoya 1 Natl SE of India 1 3 1 6 3 2 8 7 New Zealand 2 Osaka 2 2 2 2 6 1 Shanghai 1 1 1 2 7 11 Shenzhen 1 2 6 11 Singapore 1 1 2 1 5 2 2 4 Taiwan 1 2 4 4 1 5 Tokyo 4 7 43 6 13 18 Total 9 13 6 6 6 16 25 82 50 96 127 8 Note: As of Jan 31; excludes delisted products Source: Bloomberg, Samsung Securities Table 2. Listed ETFs, by underlying asset Asset category Market value (USDm) Number of products Equity 102,374 370 Commodity 5,310 49 Debt 4,535 20 Asset allocation 195 13 Total 112,415 452 Note: Asset allocation category includes commodity ETFs Source: Bloomberg, Samsung Securities 2 February 3, 2012 Derivatives Spot Table 3. Number of listed ETFs, by exchange Exchange Number of products Korea 111 Tokyo 90 Hong Kong 61 Australia 38 Natl SE of India 31 Singapore 29 Shanghai 23 Taiwan 17 Osaka 16 Shenzhen 14 Bangkok 8 New Zealand 6 Bursa Malaysia 4 Mumbai 2 Indonesia 1 Nagoya 1 Total 452 Note: As of Jan 31 Source: Bloomberg, Samsung Securities Table 4. ETF market value, by exchange Primary Exchange Total asset value Average asset value Total asset value 2 weeks before (USDm) (USDm) (USDm) Hong Kong 27,327 479 26,168 Tokyo 23,358 260 22,337 Osaka 15,022 939 14,127 Singapore 10,645 367 11,063 Korea 9,853 89 9,065 Shanghai 7,053 321 7,066 Taiwan 6,996 437 6,718 Shenzhen 5,073 423 5,083 Australia 4,409 122 4,156 Natl SE of India 1,979 76 1,923 New Zealand 373 62 355 Bangkok 189 24 185 Bursa Malaysia 108 27 302 Nagoya 25 25 24 Indonesia 4 4 4 Mumbai 1 0 1 Total 112,415 257 108,577 Note: As of Jan 31 Source: Bloomberg, Samsung Securities Table 5. ETF trading volume and value, by exchange Primary exchange Total trading volume (contracts) Average trading volume (contracts) Shenzhen 928,296,083 77,358,007 Shanghai 1,110,127,089 50,460,322 Taiwan 36,093,352 2,123,138 Hong Kong 120,580,872 2,078,981 Bangkok 6,317,606 902,515 Bursa Malaysia 2,430,693 607,673 Korea 60,514,029 576,324 Indonesia 48,094 48,094 Tokyo 4,066,931 46,746 Singapore 1,163,551 43,094 Osaka 527,206 35,147 New Zealand 194,880 32,480 Australia 808,431 23,777 Natl SE of India 630,807 21,027 Mumbai 2,767 1,384 Nagoya 545 545 Note: As of Jan 31; trading volume based on 3-month average Source: Bloomberg, Samsung Securities 3 February 3, 2012 Derivatives Spot ETF asset value Table 6. Top 30 ETFs in terms of asset value ETF Benchmark Exchange Total asset value (USDm) Total asset value of two weeks ago (USDm) Nomura ETF - Nikkei225 NKY Osaka 8,912.38 8,624.72 Nomura ETF - Topix TPX Tokyo 8,861.26 8,511.73 Tracker Fund Of Hong Kong HSI Hong Kong 6,708.48 6,511.64 iShares FTSE A50 China Index FTXIA50T Hong Kong 6,035.48 5,794.87 Nikko ETF - Nikkei 225 NKY Tokyo 4,446.00 4,153.53 Daiwa ETF - Nikkei 225 NKY Osaka 3,797.16 3,618.69 Hang Seng Index ETF HSI Hong Kong 3,727.70 3,554.63 Daiwa ETF - Topix TPX Tokyo 3,567.34 3,438.38 Polaris Taiwan Top50 Tracker TW50 Taiwan 3,565.61 3,454.44 Nikko ETF - Topix TPX Tokyo 3,544.32 3,416.08 Samsung KODEX 200 KOSPI2 Korea 3,085.91 2,771.08 China 50 ETF SSE50 Shanghai 3,014.54 3,019.98 E Fund SI100 Index Fund SI100 Shenzhen 2,867.70 2,872.88 ABF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund ABTRPAUH Hong Kong 2,696.42 2,655.43 Fubon SSE 180 Index ETF SSE180 Taiwan 2,573.00 2,443.54 Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF HSCEI Hong Kong 2,552.18 2,485.28 SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Fund AS51 Australia 2,187.82 2,066.68 Maxis Nikkei 225 ETF NKY Osaka 1,658.75 1,255.15 Lyxor ETF Commodities CRB-CD CRYTR Singapore 1,582.73 1,455.88 Lyxor ETF Russia RU10D Hong Kong 1,333.47 1,190.42 Lyxor ETF MSCI Emerging Markets-B NDUEEGF Singapore 1,314.30 1,563.56 Shanghai SSE180 ETF SSE180 Shanghai 1,217.49 1,219.69 Lyxor ETF China Enterprise HSI 21 Singapore 1,215.44 1,114.11 Lyxor ETF Dow Jones IND AV-B DJINR Singapore 904.88 840.83 Lyxor ETF MSCI World-E NDDUWI Hong Kong 898.42 849.17 Lyxor ETF MSCI AC Asia EX JP NDUECAPF Singapore 805.76 705.44 WISE - CSI 300 China Tracker SHSZ300 Hong Kong 763.16 741.72 Mirae Maps TIGER 200 ETF KOSPI2 Korea 758.44 663.21 Samsung KODEX Leverage ETF KOSPI2LG Korea 736.16 874.38 China SME ETF SZ399601 Shenzhen 720.01 721.31 Note: As of Jan 31 Source: Bloomberg, Samsung Securities Figure 2.
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