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Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23Rd 2021 Insider Trading Insider Trading Eastman Kodak Senior Thesis Presented to The Faculty of the School of Arts and Sciences Brandeis University Undergraduate Program in Business In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Arts by Thibault Padiou April 2021 Copyright by Thibault Padiou Committee members (if applicable): Name: Daniel Bergstresser Signature: Name: Debarshi Nandy Signature: Name: Hagits Weigh Signature: Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23rd 2021 -1- This thesis draws on data from public sources and financial market data from Bloomberg Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23rd 2021 -2- Acknowledgements I want to extend my deepest gratitude to my advisors Professor Daniel Bergstresser and Professor Debarshi Nandy. I want to thank them for their time and their invaluable insights. It was an absolute pleasure working with both of you. I want to thank Hagits Weigh for coordinating this entire program. I am grateful to Zine Sekfali, who has been a tremendous help during this project with his precious advice. I am also grateful to my family for their support. Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23rd 2021 -3- Abstract This paper describes the context for and explores the claims of insider trading against Eastman Kodak using a mix of quantitative and qualitative analysis. This paper is divided into three different chapters. The first chapter is a general overview of Eastman Kodak in July and the critical information surrounding the US international development finance corporation loan announcement. This chapter includes but is not limited to investments reports, legal reports, Eastman Kodak's press release, and a closer look at the loan application's DFC guidelines. That information will help us establish a range of times where insider trading could have occurred. Knowing the context surrounding the DFC Loan announcement will be useful when explaining our results. The second chapter explores the potential value of Eastman Kodak using the Altman Z score to assess the likelihood of Eastman Kodak going bankrupt in the two following years. We will analyze the hard-to-borrow1 implications of Eastman Kodak stock and what it meant in terms of market movements. In the third chapter, we will use a toolkit of financial econometrics that draws from Kenneth Ahern's recent works to look for potential informed trading in Kodak trading data. 1 Hard to borrow is limited supply of a stock for short selling Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23rd 2021 -4- Table of Content Chapter One. Critical Events Surrounding the DFC Loan Announcement I. Background II. Akin Gump Report III. DFC Loan Criteria IV. Insider Giving V. Results Chapter Two. Financial Solvency Measure and Market Movements I. Altman Z score II. Market Movements Surrounding DFC Loan Announcement III. Results Chapter Three. Statistical Analysis I. Data II. Limitations III. Variables IV. Summary Statistics Conclusions. Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23rd 2021 -5- Chapter One. Critical Events Surrounding the DFC Loan Announcement I. Background Eastman Kodak was founded in 1888 by George Eastman and Henry A. Strong. Eastman Kodak became one of the most dominant players in the photographic industry, led by its star product, the Kodak camera. In the late 1990's Eastman Kodak started having financial difficulties with lower sales and no more technological advantage. This economic situation resulted in Eastman Kodak declaring bankruptcy in 2011. After the bankruptcy, Eastman Kodak started focusing on the digital imagery market. On July 28th, 2020, Eastman Kodak Company announced that they received a 765 million loan from the U.S International Development Financial Corporation to produce pharmaceutical ingredients that would help against the COVID 19 crisis and strengthen the supply chain for pharmaceutical ingredients. Hours after the announcement, Kodak's share price rose by 500 percent intraday. On July 29th,2020, after the announcement, the CEO asserted they are more of a chemical company and concentrate on making a film instead of cameras. He also stated that investors should capitalize on the DFC Loan, and as a result, on the same day, the stock rose even further. Exhibit A shows a timeline of the critical events surrounding the announcement of the DFC Loan to Eastman Kodak on July 28th, 2020. Based on Exhibit A, the trading volume of 1.64 million on July 27th was 2116 percent higher than the trading volume of 74,900 on July 24th, and the closing price was also higher with 2.62 dollars compared to 2.10 on July 24th. Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23rd 2021 -6- Eastman Kodak, as a result of this unusual activity, had to send a press release explaining the abnormal trading activity surrounding the event. In this press release, Eastman Kodak explained that a particular internal investigation had been ordered by the Board to look at the allegations of wrongdoing. Kodak's Board of directors engaged the law firm Akin Gump to handle the investigation. Based on the Akin Gump report, on July 27th, Eastman Kodak officials justified that at 11:25 AM, a relatively junior Kodak public relations employee (the "PR Employee") emailed a version of the Media Advisory to multiple reporters in the Rochester area. The email circulating the advisory stated that Kodak's new manufacturing initiative "could change the course of history for Rochester and the American people." Based on the Akin Gump report, the information leaked in at least two tweets. After the news was potentially leaked, Exhibit A noted that there was unusual trading activity on July 27th, 2020. On July 27th, before the DFC Loan announcement, four management board members were allocated convertible shares. James V. Continenza, CEO of the company, was awarded 1.75 million stock options at a conversion price between 3.03 to 12 dollars per share. David Bullwinkle, CFO of Kodak, Randy D. Vandagriff, and Roger Byrd were awarded 45000 stock options. The Akin Gump report mentions that the decision to grand those stock options had been made before applying to the DFC Loan, and we're given as a form of compensation to the management board. James V. Continenza mentioned that this was a way to show his trust in Eastman Kodak and its future. One should note that on August 3rd, 2020, George Karfunkel, the biggest shareholder of Eastman Kodak, reported to the SEC a gift of 3.3 million shares valued at 38.75 per shares on July 29th to a religious institution. This gift was reported at the highest possible price for the Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23rd 2021 -7- stock of Kodak and would result in healthy tax benefits for Karfunkel. Looking more closely at those specific events will give us more knowledge about the context surrounding the DFC Loan announcement. Knowing the context surrounding those events will be useful when explaining the different trends seen in the data provided by the third chapter of this analysis. II. Akin Gump report The first element that will be thoroughly analyzed is the Akin Gump report to the special committee. The Akin Gump report to the special committee gives a different outlook on Eastman Kodak's application for the DFC Loan. Eastman Kodak's first contact with the DFC was supposed to be on May 31st, based on the report information. No specific mention on who tried to contact whom. Most of the people involved in the process did not believe the project would come to fruition, and considered it was unlikely that the DFC would give the loan to Eastman Kodak. Some anonymous employees questioned the DFC's interest in Eastman Kodak, primarily since Eastman Kodak wasn't known as a pharmaceutical company and was in a completely different industry based on their information. The first application for the DFC Loan was missing several critical pieces of information and was only supposed to get Eastman Kodak into the queue to be granted the loan. Many different companies were also applying for the DFC Loan, which could explain why Eastman Kodak employees thought their chances were slim. However, there aren't any mentions of the other companies applying for the DFC Loan in the report as they chose to remain anonymous. As a result, Eastman Kodak was assuming very high competitiveness to get that DFC Loan. Eastman Kodak filed its final application with all the necessary documents on July 26th, 2020. Thibault Padiou Brandeis University April 23rd 2021 -8- Now that we know how Eastman Kodak applied for the DFC Loan and the doubts surrounding Eastman Kodak's ability to get that loan. We will take a closer look at the DFC and the criteria to get the loan. This will help us get a better sense of Eastman Kodak's chances to get the loan based on the required criteria available on the DFC website. However, there could have been information not publicly released that would have made Eastman Kodak a better candidate or an agreement between Eastman Kodak and the DFC that was not made publicly available. III. DFC Loan Criteria The DFC (International development finance corporation) is an independent agency created in October 2018 originally with the sole purpose of providing and helping in the financing of private development in middle to lower-income countries. The DFC's current director is Adam Boehler, and it has a budget estimated to be about 60 billion. Previous loan or insurance-related supports that the DFC has given before Kodak includes: Connect Africa- 1 billion investment in transportation in central Africa, 2X Women's initiative- 1 billion in support of projects led by women. In 2020, the DFC's role changed and was granted with President Donald J. Trump's executive order access to the Defense Production Act to make more loans to create, restore, or expand domestic industrial base capabilities.
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