Price Channels Versus Bollinger Bands
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Technical Analysis, Liquidity, and Price Discovery∗
Technical Analysis, Liquidity, and Price Discovery∗ Felix Fritzy Christof Weinhardtz Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Karlsruhe Institute of Technology This version: 27.08.2016 Abstract Academic literature suggests that Technical Analysis (TA) plays a role in the decision making process of some investors. If TA traders act as uninformed noise traders and generate a relevant amount of trading volume, market quality could be affected. We analyze moving average (MA) trading signals as well as support and resistance levels with respect to market quality and price efficiency. For German large-cap stocks we find excess liquidity demand around MA signals and high limit order supply on support and resistance levels. Depending on signal type, spreads increase or remain unaffected which contra- dicts the mitigating effect of uninformed TA trading on adverse selection risks. The analysis of transitory and permanent price components demonstrates increasing pricing errors around TA signals, while for MA permanent price changes tend to increase of a larger magnitude. This suggests that liquidity demand in direction of the signal leads to persistent price deviations. JEL Classification: G12, G14 Keywords: Technical Analysis, Market Microstructure, Noise Trading, Liquidity ∗Financial support from Boerse Stuttgart is gratefully acknowledged. The Stuttgart Stock Exchange (Boerse Stuttgart) kindly provided us with databases. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Boerse Stuttgart Group. yE-mail: [email protected]; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Research Group Financial Market Innovation, Englerstrasse 14, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany. zE-mail: [email protected]; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Information System & Marketing, Englerstrasse 14, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany. -
Candlestick Patterns
INTRODUCTION TO CANDLESTICK PATTERNS Learning to Read Basic Candlestick Patterns www.thinkmarkets.com CANDLESTICKS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Contents Risk Warning ..................................................................................................................................... 2 What are Candlesticks? ...................................................................................................................... 3 Why do Candlesticks Work? ............................................................................................................. 5 What are Candlesticks? ...................................................................................................................... 6 Doji .................................................................................................................................................... 6 Hammer.............................................................................................................................................. 7 Hanging Man ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Shooting Star ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Checkmate.......................................................................................................................................... 9 Evening Star .................................................................................................................................... -
Investing with Volume Analysis
Praise for Investing with Volume Analysis “Investing with Volume Analysis is a compelling read on the critical role that changing volume patterns play on predicting stock price movement. As buyers and sellers vie for dominance over price, volume analysis is a divining rod of profitable insight, helping to focus the serious investor on where profit can be realized and risk avoided.” —Walter A. Row, III, CFA, Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Eaton Vance Management “In Investing with Volume Analysis, Buff builds a strong case for giving more attention to volume. This book gives a broad overview of volume diagnostic measures and includes several references to academic studies underpinning the importance of volume analysis. Maybe most importantly, it gives insight into the Volume Price Confirmation Indicator (VPCI), an indicator Buff developed to more accurately gauge investor participation when moving averages reveal price trends. The reader will find out how to calculate the VPCI and how to use it to evaluate the health of existing trends.” —Dr. John Zietlow, D.B.A., CTP, Professor of Finance, Malone University (Canton, OH) “In Investing with Volume Analysis, the reader … should be prepared to discover a trove of new ground-breaking innovations and ideas for revolutionizing volume analysis. Whether it is his new Capital Weighted Volume, Trend Trust Indicator, or Anti-Volume Stop Loss method, Buff offers the reader new ideas and tools unavailable anywhere else.” —From the Foreword by Jerry E. Blythe, Market Analyst, President of Winthrop Associates, and Founder of Blythe Investment Counsel “Over the years, with all the advancements in computing power and analysis tools, one of the most important tools of analysis, volume, has been sadly neglected. -
Identifying Chart Patterns with Technical Analysis
746652745 A Fidelity Investments Webinar Series Identifying chart patterns with technical analysis BROKERAGE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BROKERAGE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Important Information Any screenshots, charts, or company trading symbols mentioned are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for the security. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results Stop loss orders do not guarantee the execution price you will receive and have additional risks that may be compounded in pe riods of market volatility. Stop loss orders could be triggered by price swings and could result in an execution well below your trigg er price. Trailing stop orders may have increased risks due to their reliance on trigger pricing, which may be compounded in periods of market volatility, as well as market data and other internal and external system factors. Trailing stop orders are held on a separat e, internal order file, place on a "not held" basis and only monitored between 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM Eastern. Technical analysis focuses on market action – specifically, volume and price. Technical analysis is only one approach to analyzing stocks. When considering which stocks to buy or sell, you should use the approach that you're most comfortable with. As with all your investments, you must make your own determination as to whether an investment in any particular security or securities is right for you based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. -
Technical-Analysis-Bloomberg.Pdf
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Handbook 2003 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. 1 There are two principles of analysis used to forecast price movements in the financial markets -- fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis, depending on the market being analyzed, can deal with economic factors that focus mainly on supply and demand (commodities) or valuing a company based upon its financial strength (equities). Fundamental analysis helps to determine what to buy or sell. Technical analysis is solely the study of market, or price action through the use of graphs and charts. Technical analysis helps to determine when to buy and sell. Technical analysis has been used for thousands of years and can be applied to any market, an advantage over fundamental analysis. Most advocates of technical analysis, also called technicians, believe it is very likely for an investor to overlook some piece of fundamental information that could substantially affect the market. This fact, the technician believes, discourages the sole use of fundamental analysis. Technicians believe that the study of market action will tell all; that each and every fundamental aspect will be revealed through market action. Market action includes three principal sources of information available to the technician -- price, volume, and open interest. Technical analysis is based upon three main premises; 1) Market action discounts everything; 2) Prices move in trends; and 3) History repeats itself. This manual was designed to help introduce the technical indicators that are available on The Bloomberg Professional Service. Each technical indicator is presented using the suggested settings developed by the creator, but can be altered to reflect the users’ preference. -
Technical Analysis: Technical Indicators
Chapter 2.3 Technical Analysis: Technical Indicators 0 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: TECHNICAL INDICATORS Charts always have a story to tell. However, from time to time those charts may be speaking a language you do not understand and you may need some help from an interpreter. Technical indicators are the interpreters of the Forex market. They look at price information and translate it into simple, easy-to-read signals that can help you determine when to buy and when to sell a currency pair. Technical indicators are based on mathematical equations that produce a value that is then plotted on your chart. For example, a moving average calculates the average price of a currency pair in the past and plots a point on your chart. As your currency chart moves forward, the moving average plots new points based on the updated price information it has. Ultimately, the moving average gives you a smooth indication of which direction the currency pair is moving. 1 2 Each technical indicator provides unique information. You will find you will naturally gravitate toward specific technical indicators based on your TRENDING INDICATORS trading personality, but it is important to become familiar with all of the Trending indicators, as their name suggests, identify and follow the trend technical indicators at your disposal. of a currency pair. Forex traders make most of their money when currency pairs are trending. It is therefore crucial for you to be able to determine You should also be aware of the one weakness associated with technical when a currency pair is trending and when it is consolidating. -
Market Analysis Technical Handbook Maryann [email protected] Fred Meissner, Jr
Concepts in technical analysis Technical Analysis Market Analysis | United States 18 July 2007 A Handbook of the basics Mary Ann Bartels +1 212 449 8038 Technical Research Analyst MLPF&S Market Analysis Technical Handbook [email protected] Fred Meissner, Jr. CMT +1 212 449 2603 Technical Research Analyst We cover the basics of Trend, Momentum and other MLPF&S technical indicators and methods [email protected] Table of Contents Introduction 3 Trends 5 Price Momentum Indicators 14 Reversals 17 The Importance of Volume 24 Support and Resistance 28 Market Breadth 31 Market Sentiment 39 The Fibonacci Concept 43 Putting It Together 49 Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 53. 10633344 Concepts in technical analysis 18 July 2007 Contents Introduction 3 Trends 5 Price Momentum Indicators 14 Reversals 17 The Importance of Volume 24 Support and Resistance 28 Market Breadth 31 Market Sentiment 39 The Fibonacci Concept 43 Putting It Together 49 2 Concepts in technical analysis 18 July 2007 Introduction Price action of stocks, or financial markets in general, is a reflection of human nature. Price trends seem to be determined by investors’ decisions in response to a complex mix of psychological, sociological, political, economic and monetary factors. Technical analysis attempts to measure the strength of these trends and to forewarn of potential changes in these trends. -
True Support and Resistance
True Support and Resistance True Support and Resistance Support and resistance lines are one of the basic tenants of technical analysis. The method normally used for establishing support and resistance is by finding high and low price levels that the market has failed to exceed previously. However, this technique has certain failings. One of the more common has to do with the occurrence of what is called "false breakouts". Quite often the market will just exceed the resistance or support lines and return, fooling a large percentage of traders along the way. Obviously, such lines are important, but they normally are not the true support and resistance lines. This statement may seem strange, considering how pervasive the thought that these lines are all important indicators of market direction. But these lines as static and the markets are anything but static. So if these lines are not the true support and resistance lines, what is? True support and resistance lines can more accurately be defined, “As lines that have established themselves with support and resistance within the flow of the market and are supported by price action (defined as the highs and lows touching and giving support to).” To help clarify this definition, lets look at some examples. Figure 1 Figure 2 As the examples show, true resistance and support are based on the actual limits established by the price action and are rarely perfectly horizontal. The majority establish themselves in a diagonal line with its incline either up or down. They intertwine through the price action affecting each time price bars touch them. -
Harnessing Market Volatility
HOW TO FIND OPPORTUNITY IN FAST -MOVING MARKETS HARNESSING MARKET VOLATILITY One of the benefits of trading forex is the opportunity to find profit potential in both rising and falling markets. Since the market can go up or down at a moment’s notice, volatility can work to your advantage—if you know how to use it. We’ll show you some technical and fundamental analysis that can help you harness market volatility, as well as some risk management techniques that can help you capture potential profit and limit losses. An example of market volatility The following table illustrates the percentage change of different instruments since October 2007 and July 2008. Oil prices plummeted more than 50 percent in that time frame while the EUR/USD, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY fell approximately 20 percent. The daily trading ranges increased significantly as few hundred point swings in the Dow became the norm. The same was true for currencies where the average daily range expanded significantly. The average true range for many currency pairs doubled in that period. PAIR OCTOBER 1, CHANGE JULY 1, CHANGE OCTO- 2007 2008 BER 23, 2008 EUR/USD 1.4282 -10% 1.5827 -19% 1.2820 GBP/USD 2.0495 -21% 2.0000 -19% 1.6105 USD/JPY 106.39 -9% 123.29 -21% 97.32 DJIA 14116 -39% 11408 -25% 8545 SP500 1549 -42% 1285 -30% 897 FTSE 6467 -37% 5626 -28% 4046 DAX 7922 -44% 6395 -30% 4456 NIKKEI 16773 -50% 13515 -37% 8461 ASX 6568 -39% 5232 -24% 3974 OIL 82.0 -18% 143.3 -53% 68 GOLD 747.4 -6% 948.3 -26% 705 VIX 18.44 272% 25.14 173% 68.61 20% change >50% change DETERMINING TRADING STRATEGIES To increase the probability of successful trades, traders must understand whether the market is in trend or range. -
Classic Patterns
CLASSIC PATTERNS TABLE OF CONTENTS Classic Patterns . Bullish Patterns: …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 1 Ascending Continuation Triangle…………………………………………………………………….. 2 Bottom Triangle – Bottom Wedge…………………………………………………………………… 5 Continuation Diamond (Bullish) ……………………………………………………………………… 9 Continuation Wedge (Bullish) …………………………………………………………………………. 11 . Diamond Bottom…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 13 Double Bottom……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 15 Flag (Bullish) …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 19 . Head and Shoulders Bottom……………………………………………………………………………. 22 Megaphone Bottom………………………………………………………………………………………… 27 Pennant (Bullish) ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 28 Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) …………………………………………………… 31 Triple Bottom………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 35 Upside Breakout……………………………………………………………………………………………… 39 Rounded Bottom…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 42 . Bearish Patterns…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 45 Continuation Diamond (Bearish) …………………………………………………………………….. 46 Continuation Wedge (Bearish) ……………………………………………………………………….. 48 Descending Continuation Triangle…………………………………………………………………… 50 Diamond top…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 53 Double Top (Bearish) ……………………………………………………………………………………… 55 Downside Breakout…………………………………………………………………………………………. 60 Flag (Bearish) ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 62 . Head and Shoulders top (Bearish) ………………………………………………………………….. 65 Megaphone Top……………………………………………………………………………………………… 71 Pennant -
Some Techniques Used Is Technical Analysis
Some Techniques Used in Technical Analysis Moving Averages Simple Moving Averages (SMA) A simple moving average is formed by computing the average (mean) price of a security over a specified number of periods. While it is possible to create moving averages from the Open, the High, and the Low data points, most moving averages are created using the closing price. For example: a 5-day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 5 days and dividing the total by 5. The calculation is repeated for each price on the chart. The averages are then joined to form a smooth curving line - the moving average line. Continuing our example, if the next closing price in the average is 15, then this new period would be added and the oldest day, which is 10, would be dropped. The new 5-day simple moving average would be calculated as follows: Over the last 2 days, the SMA moved from 12 to 13. As new days are added, the old days will be subtracted and the moving average will continue to move over time. Note that all moving averages are lagging indicators and will always be "behind" the price. The price of EK is trending down, but the simple moving average, which is based on the previous 10 days of data, remains above the price. If the price were rising, the SMA would most likely be below. Because moving averages are lagging indicators, they fit in the category of trend following indicators. When prices are trending, moving averages work well. -
Bullish Pattern
International School of Financial Markets WWW.ISFM.CO.IN Best Stock Market School Gurgaon 0124-2200689, 9540008689 Reg. office: Plot no. 152 - P (LGF), Sec – 38, Medicity Road, NR Bakhtawar Chowk Phone : 0124-2200689, +91 9540008689, +91 9953147497, +91 9911878442 Web: www.isfm.co.in , Email : [email protected] Reg. office: Plot no. 152 - P (LGF), Sec – 38, Medicity Road, Near Medanta Hospital Contact No. - 0124-2200689, +919540008689, WWW.ISFM.CO.IN Accumulation The act of buying more shares of a security without causing the price to increase significantly. After a decline, a stock may start to base and trade sideways for an extended period. While this base builds, well-informed traders and investors may seek to establish or increase existing long positions. In that case, the stock is said to have come under accumulation. Accumulation Distribution Line A momentum indicator that relates price changes with volume. It relates the closing price to the range of prices (H - L). The closer the close is to the high, the more volume is added to the cumulative total. Advance Decline Line One of the most widely used indicators to measure the breadth of a stock market advance or decline. The AD line tracks the net difference between advancing and declining issues. It is usually compared to a market average WWW.ISFM.CO.INwhere divergence from that average would be an early indication of a possible trend reversal. AdvanceBest Decline Stock Ratio Market School The ratio of advancing issues over declining issues. Taking the moving average of the AD ratioGurgaon will smooth it so it can be used as an overbought and oversold indicator.