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Modeling Nitrogen and Phosphorus Export with Invest Model in Bosten Lake Basin of Northwest China RESEARCH ARTICLE Modeling nitrogen and phosphorus export with InVEST model in Bosten Lake basin of Northwest China Xu Yang1,2,3, Guangxing Ji1,3, Chong Wang4, Jingping Zuo1,2,3, Haiqing Yang1,2,3, 1,2,3 1,3 Jianhua XuID *, Ruishan Chen * 1 Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai, China, 2 Research Center for East-West Cooperation in China, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China, 3 School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China, 4 School of Social Sciences, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai, China a1111111111 * [email protected] (JX); [email protected] (RC) a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 Abstract a1111111111 Bosten Lake is an important region of Northwest China that has transformed from a freshwa- ter lake to a saltwater lake since the 1970s. The water quality in the Bosten Lake basin is important for social and economic development, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are OPEN ACCESS the key indicators of water quality. The land use data, precipitation data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Citation: Yang X, Ji G, Wang C, Zuo J, Yang H, Xu J, et al. (2019) Modeling nitrogen and phosphorus (InVEST) model were used to simulate the N and P exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The export with InVEST model in Bosten Lake basin of spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of Northwest China. PLoS ONE 14(7): e0220299. nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipitation change were ana- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220299 lyzed between 2000 and 2015. The results show that the amount of N and P exports Editor: Weili Duan, University of the Chinese increased during 2000±2015, and the N and P exports are mainly distributed around Bosten Academy of Sciences, CHINA Lake. The N and P exports are greatly affected by cultivated land, built-up areas and grass- Received: May 5, 2019 land, while they are less affected by other land use types. The high precipitation areas with Accepted: July 12, 2019 small exports of N and P are mainly distributed in mountain areas, while small precipitation Published: July 25, 2019 areas with large exports of N and P are distributed in plains where the cultivated land and built-up areas are concentrated. The InVEST model can be used in Northwest China, and Copyright: © 2019 Yang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the the statistical downscaling of reanalysis precipitation data can be used in the InVEST model Creative Commons Attribution License, which to improve the simulation accuracy in the data scarce regions of Northwest China. permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files. Introduction Funding: The National Natural Science Foundation The water shortage in the arid regions of the world is the most severe [1,2]. Water resources of China (Grant No. 41871025, 41630859). The are the key factors that constrain socioeconomic development and ecological security in the funder had important roles in study design, data arid regions of Northwest China and play vital roles in the sustainable development of the collection and analysis of the manuscript. region [3,4]. The water resources in the arid regions are intertwined with the local livelihoods Competing interests: The authors have declared and the extremely fragile ecological environments, resulting in a contradiction between eco- that no competing interests exist. logical protection and economic development [5]. At the same time, the arid mountain regions PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220299 July 25, 2019 1 / 17 Modeling nitrogen and phosphorus export with InVEST model in Bosten Lake basin of Northwest China in Northwest China are also the sources of many international rivers. The instability of water resources will cause new problems among the neighboring countries of Central Asia and become a focus of international attention. Water quality assessment is a hotspot in the field of hydrology and watershed management [6±7]. The studies on water quality assessment mostly use mathematical methods combined with measured data [8±10], but it is difficult to complete the work in some studies because of lack of measured data [11]. In recent years, with the development of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS), models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [12], Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) [13] and Integrated Valua- tion of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) [14] have been developed and used to eval- uate water quality. The InVEST model is the most widely used tool because of its simple, rapid and strong spatial expression, especially for quantifying ecosystem services in areas with fewer data. The Nutrient Delivery Ratio (NDR) module in the model is specifically used for the simu- lation of nitrogen and phosphorus exports and has been applied in many regions of the world [14±18]. Currently, there are many studies on water quality assessment in Northwest China [19±22]. Most studies on the water quality in the Bosten Lake basin have mainly focused on Bosten Lake [23±25]. Yu [24] collected 13 samples of surface sediment in Bosten Lake and ana- lyzed total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), stable carbon isotopic composition in TOC, and grain size. Their study indicated that the spatial distribution of sediment TOC in the Bosten Lake was influenced by multiple and complex processes. However, they ignore the influence of water quality between Bosten Lake and its surrounding areas, and there is limited research on the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipita- tion change in the Bosten Lake basin. In this paper, the InVEST model was used to simulate the nitrogen and phosphorus exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipi- tation change were analyzed between 2000 and 2015. This study is helpful for understanding the water quality of the Bosten Lake basin from the perspective of nitrogen and phosphorus, and provides a theoretical basis for water resource management. Study region Overview of the study region The Bosten Lake basin is an important inland river basin. It is located on the northern edge of the Yanqi Basin and in the southern part of the Tianshan Mountains in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China, which is between E82Ê58'~86Ê05', N42Ê14'~43Ê21' (Fig 1), including the Kaidu River, Bosten Lake and other geographic units. The Kaidu River originates in the middle part of the basin. The upstream portion of the Kaidu River originates in the Bayanbulak Grassland and then flows through the Yanqi Basin [26] and finally injects into Bosten Lake, which is the largest inland freshwater lake in China [27]. The Kaidu River has a total length of 560 km, and the total area of the Bosten Lake basin is 44019.07 km2. The basin is deeply located in the hinterland of Eurasia, which has a temperate continental arid climate with abundant sunshine and strong solar radiation. The average annual temperature is between 8 ÊC and 8.6 ÊC, the annual precipitation is between 70 mm and 600 mm, and the evaporation is between 500 mm and 1500 mm. It has a large elevation difference from north to south, which can be roughly divided into three parts: the semiarid and semihumid areas of the high, cold Tianshan in the northern part of the basin with an altitude of 2500 m to 5000 m; the hilly area and the Gobi desert areas in the central part of basin with an altitude of 1500 m to PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220299 July 25, 2019 2 / 17 Modeling nitrogen and phosphorus export with InVEST model in Bosten Lake basin of Northwest China Fig 1. The geographical location of the Bosten Lake basin in Northwest China. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220299.g001 2500 m; and the temperate arid zones of the Gobi Plain in the southern part of the basin with an altitude of 1000 m to 1500 m [28]. Data source The data used in this analysis mainly include the digital elevation model (DEM), land use data and precipitation data. The ASTER GDEM data were downloaded from the United States Geo- logical Survey (USGS) (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov). The 30 m resolution data cover land areas between 83ÊN and 83ÊS, reaching 99% of the land surface on the earth. The Landsat TM/ETM data, which were downloaded from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (https://www.nasa.gov/), were interpreted according to the classifica- tion system of land use [29, 30]. To obtain 30 m resolution land use data in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, we combined the land use data from NASA and the remote sensing information from Google Earth. The average classification accuracy of cultivated land and built-up areas is over 85%, and the average classification accuracy of other land use types is more than 75%. Due to only three meteorological observation stations in the study area, the spatial resolu- tion of the measured precipitation is obviously very low if used as the input for the precipita- tion dataset. Therefore, we used the reanalysis precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) from NASA (https://www.nasa.gov/). After analyzing and comparing according to previous literature [31±33], the statistical downscaling method was used to deal with reanalysis precipitation data, and then, the statistical downscaling of pre- cipitation data was used as the input data for further use.
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