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Europe COVID-19 Tracker Free to View Economics - Europe

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Europe COVID-19 Tracker Free to View Economics - Europe 21 July 2021 Europe COVID-19 tracker Free to View Economics - Europe Rising worries on the Delta wave Cases are rising rapidly in many European countries with a reproduction rate even higher than in previous waves Chantana Sam Economist Pressure on hospitals remains low thanks to vaccinations, but HSBC Continental Europe recent signs of slowing vaccine rollout are a source of concern Renewed local restrictions in some countries and early signs of impact on bookings point to risks on the tourism recovery Europe is now firmly in the grip of a new COVID-19 wave There have been no signs of relief on the front of infection rates over the past week. New cases have continued to accelerate sharply in many countries, in particular in the UK, Spain and the Netherlands (charts 1 and 2). In other countries like France and Italy, case numbers are firmly on the rise, even if they remain low. But the effective reproduction rate has jumped to an even higher level than for previous waves, confirming that the Delta variant is more contagious than other virus strains (chart 3). This suggests that in terms of case numbers, the current wave has the potential to be stronger than previous ones. Vaccination is a key difference, but uncertainties remain On a more positive note, hospital admissions have remained low, even if they have edged up a bit in the UK (chart 4). The decoupling between cases and hospitalisation numbers reflects the positive role played by vaccination as infections have been concentrated among young people. This situation explains why the UK government went ahead with the end of all legal limits on social activity in England on 19 July. However, a non-negligible share of the European population is still not vaccinated, including some of the most vulnerable people. Therefore, the risk of renewed pressure on hospital capacity cannot be ruled out. With the pace of vaccination generally slowing in Europe (chart 7), some countries could be willing to follow the example of France, which is set to buck the trend. Indeed, measures taken last week to incentivise vaccination (mandatory vaccination for health care workers and wider use of the COVID-19 health pass to access some venues) have led to a sharp rise in appointments (chart 8). Studies pointing to waning vaccine protection over time (chart 9) are also a source of concern as they suggest that vaccine boosters could be needed. Rising downside risks on economic activity The current COVID-19 wave could derail the tourism recovery that was firmly underway until recently (charts 16 and 17). Indeed, in some popular destination countries, new restrictions have been imposed locally, like a 1-6am curfew in Catalonia and in the island of Mykonos. In Italy, the Italian tourism association reported a 50% drop in bookings (both in Italy and abroad) last week, relative to the previous one (La Repubblica, 18 July). Countries less dependent on foreign tourists should fare better, but economic activity could still be impacted by the current wave. For example, in the UK, polls suggest that people are not comfortable to return to some venues in spite of the end of legal restrictions (Chart 14). The recent rise in the number of people forced to self-isolate (Chart 13) and of children absent of schools for COVID-19 reasons (14% on 15 July, according to government figures) should also be a drag on the recovery in the near term. This is an abridged version of a report of the same title published on 21 July 2021. Please contact your HSBC representative or email [email protected] for more information. Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Continental Europe This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Free to View ● Economics - Europe 21 July 2021 Cases are still rising rapidly, but hospitalisation rates remain low 1. Case numbers are firmly on the rise in Europe… COVID-19 cases* in the eurozone big 4 and UK 160000 160000 120000 120000 80000 80000 40000 40000 0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Germany France Italy Spain UK Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Notes: *7-day moving average. 2. …in particular in Spain, the UK and the Netherlands 7dma Daily COVID-19 cases per 100k of population 7dma 75 75 60 60 45 45 30 30 15 15 0 0 UK Italy Spain Ireland France Greece Norway Belgium Sweden Portugal Germany Switzerland Netherlands 7-day to 14-July 7-day to 21-July Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Note: Weekend numbers are reported as 0, so “7-days to” does not include Saturday and Sunday. 3. The effective reproduction rate has been 4. Hospitalisation admissions remain low significantly higher in the current wave but they are starting to rise again in the UK 7-day av erage COVID-19 effectiv e 7-day av erage Total COVID-19 related ICU patients Total reproduction rate 8000 8000 4 4 6000 6000 3 3 4000 4000 2 2 2000 2000 1 1 0 0 0 0 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Germany France Italy UK* UK Netherlands Spain Italy France Source: Our World in Data, HSBC Source: Macrobond, HSBC. *Medically ventilated We acknowledge the assistance of Yash Dewan, HSBC Bank plc, in the preparation of this report. 2 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 21 July 2021 Still a tight race between vaccination and the Delta variant 5. Excluding Malta, the UK is still ahead of EU countries in terms of vaccine progress Number Number of v accine doses administered per 100 people Number 180 180 150 150 120 120 90 90 60 60 30 30 0 0 US (19 Jul) (19 US UK (18 Jul) UK (18 Malta (19 Jul) (19 Malta Spain (19 Jul) (19 Spain Ireland (19 Jul) (19 Ireland France (19 Jul) (19 France Poland (19 Jul) (19 Poland Greece (19 Jul) (19 Greece Finland (19 Jul) (19 Finland Norway (19 Jul) (19 Norway Sweden (16 Jul) (16 Sweden Bulgaria (19 Jul) (19 Bulgaria Portugal (19 Jul) (19 Portugal Romania (19 (19 Jul) Romania Denmark Jul) (19 Denmark Germany (19 Jul)(19 Germany Source: Our World in Data, HSBC 6. Most of largest eurozone countries have 7. ...even if outside France and Italy, the caught up with the US… pace of vaccination is clearly decelerating Number Number of v accine doses Number Per mn Daily COVID-19 v accine doses Per mn administered for 100 people 14000 14000 120 120 12000 12000 100 100 10000 10000 80 80 8000 8000 60 60 6000 6000 40 40 4000 4000 2000 2000 20 20 0 0 0 0 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Germany France Italy Germany France Italy Spain UK US Spain US Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Source: Our World in Data, HSBC 8.The measures announced in France to 9. Waning antibody protection over time is a boost vaccination have been effective source of uncertainty in the reopening phase 000s France: vaccine appointments booked 000s Unit per mn Ev olution of S-antibody levels Unit per mn online on Doctolib for a first dose (median) after 2nd v accine dose 1,400 1400 8000 8000 1,200 1200 7000 7000 1,000 1000 6000 6000 Thousands Thousands 5000 5000 800 800 4000 4000 600 600 3000 3000 400 400 2000 2000 200 200 1000 1000 0 0 0 0 21-41 days 42-55 days 56-69 days 70+ days May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Pfizer/BioNTech AstraZeneca Appointments Source: Doctolib, HSBC Source: Shroti et al., Spike-antibody waning after second dose of BNT162b2 or NB: Doctolib is one of the main platforms to book a vaccine appointment in France ChAdOx1, The Lancet, July 15, 2021 3 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 21 July 2021 The recovery in activity has lost its momentum 10. Social activity is now rising more slowly in Europe % from baseline Europe and US: mobility data - retail and recreation* % from baseline 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 -100 -100 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Germany France Italy Spain UK Sweden Norway US Source: Google, HSBC. Note: *7-day moving average 11. Restrictions in the eurozone are no 12. …while in England, most of legal limits longer being eased… on social activity ended on 19 July Index Eurozone: stringency of restrictions Dev iation Index UK: stringency of restrictions Dev iation and mobility * from baseline and mobility * from baseline 0 40 0 20 20 20 20 0 40 0 40 -20 60 -20 60 -40 80 -40 80 -60 100 -60 100 -80 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Stringency score (LHS, inverted) Mobility (RHS) Stringency score (LHS, inverted) Mobility (RHS) Source: Google mobility, Oxford COVID-19 Government response Tracker, HSBC. Source: Google mobility, Oxford COVID-19 Government response Tracker, HSBC Note: *Mobility data is an average of all the components, excluding residential, 7dma Note: *Mobility data is an average of all the components, excluding residential, 7dma 13. However, the recent sharp rise in the self- 14. Ahead of 19 July, British people were still isolation alerts could be a drag on activity uncomfortable to return to some venues 000s UK: Number of self-isolation alerts 000s % UK: share of people that w ould be % sent by the NHS COVID-19 app comfortable/uncomfortable going..
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