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Queensland Rural Debt Survey 2019

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Queensland Rural and Industry Development Authority Queensland Rural Debt Survey 2019 Freecall 1800 623 946 /QRIDAmedia @we.are.qrida www.qrida.qld.gov.au /QRIDAmedia /company/QRIDA [email protected] WITH THANKS The Queensland Rural and Industry Development Authority (QRIDA) undertook the 2019 Queensland Rural Debt Survey in collaboration with the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) and with the support of all the major rural lending institutions in Queensland. Additional assistance was provided by agricultural industry associations and other agencies as listed below. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS FOR THE 2019 QUEENSLAND RURAL DEBT SURVEY SURVEY PARTICIPANTS CONTRIBUTORS Australian and New Zealand Banking Group AgForce Queensland Bank of Queensland Bureau of Meteorology Commonwealth Bank Canegrowers National Australia Bank Cotton Australia Queensland Rural and Industry Development Authority Department of Agriculture and Fisheries Rabobank Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy Regional Investment Corporation Growcom Rural Bank Limited Nursery and Garden Industry Queensland Suncorp Group Queensland Dairy Farmers’ Organisation Westpac Queensland Farmers’ Federation The following information has been collated from Output Tables provided by QGSO, as reprinted from Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, Queensland Treasury, Rural Debt Survey 2019, Output Tables. 2 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................ 5 KEY RESULTS .............................................................................................. 6 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 8 GENERAL TRENDS ....................................................................................... 9 Economic Environment .......................................................................... 10 Weather and Natural Disasters ............................................................... 13 Financial ............................................................................................... 19 PERFORMANCE OF DEBT ............................................................................. 25 Size ...................................................................................................... 26 Region .................................................................................................. 29 Risk Profile ............................................................................................ 32 Industry ................................................................................................ 35 ALL INDUSTRIES ......................................................................................... 37 Beef ...................................................................................................... 40 Grain .................................................................................................... 46 Grain/Grazing ....................................................................................... 52 Sugar .................................................................................................... 57 Cotton ................................................................................................... 63 Horticulture - Tree Crops ........................................................................ 69 Horticulture - Vegetables ....................................................................... 75 Intensive Livestock ................................................................................ 79 Dairy ..................................................................................................... 84 Marine .................................................................................................. 89 Sheep/Wool .......................................................................................... 92 Various Industries ................................................................................. 98 REFERENCES .............................................................................................. 104 APPENDIX .................................................................................................. 106 Appendix I: Farm Debt Services .............................................................. 106 Appendix II: Total debt by ABARES region by loan rating .......................... 107 Appendix III: Total debt by industry by ABARES region ............................. 108 Appendix IV: Total debt by industry by loan rating ................................... 109 Appendix V: Report assumptions, definitions and methodology .............. 110 3 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Australian farm businesses rely upon debt funding as a principal source of capital. Through the December 2017 to December 2019 period, debt funding has Rural debt is defined as the total continued to be an important source of funds for indebtedness of all farmers/ working capital, capital infrastructure and investment rural enterprises throughout for Queensland primary producers. Queensland, where the servicing The 2017 to 2019 period saw significant shifts in agricultural production in Queensland. The crippling of the rural debt relies primarily drought, decreasing crop production and reduction on rural generated income. in stock, was further amplified by the North and Far North Queensland Monsoon Trough event in early 2019 which saw losses of over 500,000 head of livestock including core breeding herds, crops The 2019 Queensland Rural Debt Survey was and pastures inundated, and topsoil removed. The undertaken by the Queensland Rural and Industry remainder of 2019 saw a recovery effort from these Development Authority (QRIDA) in collaboration with unprecedented events, with the return of some the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office pasture allowing for purchases of stock from other (QGSO). It was compiled with the support of all major drought ravaged states and some dry-land planting lenders in Queensland and insights from agricultural from the Monsoon Trough event. The end of 2019 saw industry organisations. the start of scattered showers across other areas of The survey commenced in 1994. From 2000 to 2011, the state which had not seen rain events for several the survey was conducted biennially and resumed years. The recovery effort and prolonged drought biennially in 2017. The debt figures are collated from effects continue to develop. de-identified data provided by the major lending At the time of writing, Queensland and Australian institutions in Queensland at the time the survey is agriculture are experiencing yet more uncertainty conducted. including rapidly changing market conditions and The 2019 survey report includes an analysis of the supply chain constraints as well as opportunity for movement in rural debt since the previous 2017 increased domestic demand due to the COVID-19 survey. The 2019 survey provides an overview of the pandemic. The impacts are yet to be fully realised and agricultural industry in Queensland providing context the effects of it may be seen in the 2021 survey. for the 2019 Queensland Rural Debt Survey results. Rural debt is defined as the total indebtedness of all The 2019 survey provides an important snapshot of farmers/rural enterprises throughout Queensland, the financial state of Queensland’s rural businesses where the servicing of the rural debt relies primarily and will help inform both government and industry. on rural generated income. The 2019 Queensland This report recognises that agricultural business in Rural Debt Survey report provides a comprehensive Queensland operate in a very dynamic environment breakdown of the value and rating of rural debt and and the associated debt levels continue to be number of borrowers by industry and region across impacted by many factors including climate, natural Queensland. disasters, markets, trading environments and varying As at 31 December 2019, total rural debt in production levels. Queensland was $19.10 billion, up 10.75 per cent from $17.24 billion as measured in the previous 2017 survey. The average debt per borrower was $1.05 million, up 11.37 per cent on 2017. The 2019 survey showed that the rating of rural debt has remained steady since the previous 2017 survey, with 93.15 per cent of the total value of rural debt rated either viable (rating A) or potentially viable long-term (rating B+), in 2017 it was 94.41 per cent. 5 KEY RESULTS SIZE The 2019 Queensland Rural Debt Survey indicated that as at 31 December there was $19.10 billion of rural debt in Queensland. The results of this survey in comparison to 2017 indicate: AMOUNT 2019 2017 MOVEMENT % MOVEMENT Total debt ($m) 19,096 17,243 +1,853 +10.75% Number of borrowers 18,232 18,335 -103 -0.56% Average debt per borrower ($m) 1.05 0.94 +0.11 +11.37% INDUSTRY Of the 16 industries that have been captured in the INDUSTRY ($M) 2019 survey, the three major rural debt holding Beef 10,672 industries included beef, grain and grain/grazing Grain 1,281 which accounted for $13.15 billion or 68.86 per cent of the total debt. In 2017, the three largest industries were Grain/Grazing 1,197 beef, cotton and sugar. REGION Of the eight ABARES regions in Queensland, the ABARES REGION ($M) three major debt holding areas included the Western Western Downs and Central Highlands 6,274 Downs and Central Highlands, Southern Coastal – Curtis to Moreton and Eastern Darling downs which Southern Coastal - Curtis to Moreton 4,455 combined
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