Analysis of behavioral changes due to the Stockholm Congestion Charge Trial THILO BECKER Master's Degree Project Stockholm, Sweden 2008 Analysis of behavioral changes due to the Stockholm Congestion Charge Trial Thilo Becker Thesis / Studienarbeit, 2008 141 pages, 33 figures, 74 tables, 53 appendixes Main supervisor Second supervisor Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Technische Universität Dresden School of Architecture and the Built Fakultät Verkehrswissenschaften Environment „Friedrich List“ Department of Transport and Economics Institut für Verkehrsplanung und Straßenverkehr Division of Transport and Location Analysis Professur für Straßenverkehrstechnik mit Fachbereich Theorie der Verkehrsplanung Prof. Dr Jonas Eliasson Priv.-Doz. Dr.-Ing. habil. Christian Schiller The Stockholm Congestion Tax Trial is a project where an automatic system was implemented to tax road vehicles in order to reduce congestion. It lasted from January until July 2006 and vehicles going in or out of the inner city were taxed. The trial was limited to a half year and was accompanied by a large research package to evaluate the effects of the congestion tax. The data collected for research purposes is not fully analyzed yet. This thesis focuses on travel behavior of the population in Stockholm County and uses a household panel survey. The thesis provides an overview about the circumstances in Stockholm, the implementation of the congestion tax and the general effects of the trial. The main idea of the analysis is to use the advantages of the panel survey and keep track of how the individuals behaved during the two waves. The analysis is done separately for each trip purpose and examines the change of mode choice during the second wave in comparison to the individual’s choice Assignment Analyse of behavioural changes due to the Stockholm congestion charge trial During the 2006 congestion trial in Stockholm, the numbers of cars travelling through the congestion charge zone decreased by about 20 % according to the travel survey and the traffic counts. Public transport has increased by about 5 % due to the trial. The travel survey was a panel study conducted in September 2004 and March 2006 with 35,000 questionnaires. Due to the seasonal influence, direct comparisons between them are difficult. According to the available research, the number of trips to and from work hasn’t changed. Most of the work trips by car “disappearing” across the cordon seem to have switched to public transport, while most of the “disappearing” car trips with other trip purposes seem to have switched to other destinations or been cancelled altogether. Even with the existing research, the question of who changed the behaviour and in what way it was done is not fully answered. The project work should deal with the following questions: • In what way did the departure time choice and/or trip generation and/or mode choice and/ or route choice change during the trial for all trip purposes? • What was the effect on trips conducted for main activities (e. g. Home, work, leisure purposes)? • Result transfer to the theory of hard and soft constraints respectively minimum and maximum constraints in trip generation models. • Which sociodemographic groups (age, gender, income, occupation) changed in what way and how do the results influence the determination of O-D-Groups? The goal of the project work is to improve the understanding of the effects of congestion charging on the travel behavior, utilization of the results for traffic demand modelling and to provide help in predicting consequences in other cities. Theses 1. A congestion tax does not reduce the total number of trips passing through the taxation cordon. 2. Trips that are required to be done every day are reduced less by the congestion tax or other influences from outside. 3. The main alternative for doing the trip by car is public transportation. 4. The modes foot and bike are affected by weather and are not an alternative for trips by car for the whole year. 5. Women try to avoid the congestion tax more often than men. 6. Low income groups change from car to less expensive modes to avoid the congestion tax. High income groups do not change their behavior. 7. Older individuals are less flexible in their mode choice. I Table of content List of figures IV List of tables VI List of abbreviations and definitions XII 0. Abstract 1 1. Introduction 6 1.1 Idea of congestion charges 6 1.2 Why evaluate the Stockholm Congestion Tax Trial? 7 2. Information about the region and the Stockholm Trial 8 2.1 The pattern of Sweden and Stockholm County 8 2.1.1 Geographic structure 8 2.1.2 Administrative divisions in Sweden 11 2.1.3 The city of Stockholm 13 2.1.4 Public Transportation 16 2.1.5 Private Transportation 20 2.2 Decision making and chronological sequence 22 2.3 Concept and technical aspects of the congestion tax 24 2.3.1 Congestion tax 25 2.3.2 Improved public transportation network 28 3. Evaluation measures of the Stockholm Trial 29 3.1 General evaluation measures and results of the trial 29 3.1.1 Road Traffic 29 3.1.2 Public Transport 30 3.1.3 Pedestrian and Cycle 31 3.1.4 Road Safety 31 3.1.5 Environment 31 3.1.6 Effects on trade and regional economy 32 3.1.7 Cost-benefit analysis 33 3.2 Travel survey 2004 and 2006 33 3.1 Questionnaire 34 3.2 Population and sample 35 3.3 Measuring period and response frequency 35 3.4 Weighting 36 3.3 Disturbing effects in travel survey 37 3.3.1 Aging sample 37 II 3.3.2 Weather and season 38 3.3.3 Infrastructure 39 3.3.4 Disturbances in traffic 39 3.3.5 Gasoline price 39 3.3.6 Economic change 39 3.3.7 Other influences 40 4. Applied methodology in thesis 41 4.1 Types of household surveys 41 4.2 Idea of analysis 42 4.3 Process of analysis 42 4.4 Data source and prior data processing and correction 45 4.5 Definitions 51 5. Analysis of travel habit in Stockholm County 53 5.1 Cross-sectional analysis 53 5.2 Work and school trips 57 5.2.1 Cross-sectional analysis 57 5.2.2 Car travellers 2004 61 5.2.3 Public transport travellers in 2004 69 5.2.4 Bike travellers 2004 73 5.2.5 Pedestrians in 2004 75 5.3 Businesstrips 76 5.3.1 Cross-sectional analysis 76 5.3.2 Car travellers in 2004 78 5.3.3 PT travellers and other modes in 2004 80 5.4 Grocery shopping 80 5.4.1 Cross-sectional analysis 80 5.4.2 Car travellers in 2004 83 5.4.3 PT travellers in 2004 84 5.2.4 Foot and bike travellers in 2004 85 5.5 Shopping and service 85 5.1 Cross-sectional analysis 86 5.2 Car travellers in 2004 87 5.3 PT travellers in 2004 91 5.6 Leisure trips 93 5.6.1 Cross-sectional analysis 93 5.6.2 Car travellers in 2004 96 5.6.3 PT travellers in 2004 99 III 5.6.4 Bike travellers and pedestrians in 2004 101 5.7 Visit trips 102 5.7.1 Cross-sectional analysis 102 5.7.2 Car travellers in 2004 103 5.7.3 PT travellers in 2004 104 5.8 Home trips 105 5.8.1 Limitations of the analysis 105 5.8.2 Cross-sectional analysis 106 5.8.3 Car travellers in 2004 109 5.8.4 PT users in 2004 114 5.8.5 Cyclists and pedestrians in 2004 114 6. Main findings of the analysis 117 6.1 Modal split of all trips 117 6.2 Trips not taking place anymore 119 6.3 Influence of socio-demographic factors 120 6.4 Other aspects 128 7. Conclusions 129 8. List of References 134 8.1 Printed references 134 8.2 Internet references 136 Eidesstattliche Erklärung / Statement of fact 141 List of appendix 142 IV List of figures Figure 1: Stockholm Archipelago outside of Stockholm with many islands and thin soil layer 8 Figure 2: Map of Stockholm County ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������9 Figure 3: Gross Domestic Product of Stockholm ������������������������������������������������������������������ 11 Figure 4: The Royal Palace in Stockholm and the parliament Riksdag ����������������������������������� 12 Figure 5: The city of Stockholm with some neighboring municipalities ���������������������������������� 13 Figure 6: Population pyramid in 2007 ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 14 Figure 7: Distribution of workplaces in Stockholm city ���������������������������������������������������������� 15 Figure 8: A Stockholm Metro near Slussen and biogas bus �������������������������������������������������� 17 Figure 9: System map of rail public transport system �����������������������������������������������������������18 Figure 10: A ferry for public transport in the Archipelago and regional train operated by SJ �20 Figure 11: The intersection and bridge Slussen and the bypass Essingeleden �����������������������21 Figure 12: Hötorget complex with Sergels Torg ����������������������������������������������������������������������22 Figure 13: Map of the cordon with location of taxation points �����������������������������������������������25 Figure 14: Design of control points and taxation point on Stora Essingen island ������������������27 Figure 15: Camera for vehicle detection and unit with laser and transponder antenna ���������27 Figure 16: Traffic flow passing into and out of the inner city on an average day in spring 2005 compared with spring 2006 �������������������������������������������������������������������������������30 Figure 17: Responses to the travel survey �����������������������������������������������������������������������������36 Figure 18: Flow chart of the Access query for the trip purpose work.....................................43 Figure 19: Distribution of the number of work trips per grouped calculated trip length within a 24 h weekday period in 2004 �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������59