FIGHTING for the FUTURE Will America Triumph?

FIGHTING FOR THE FUTURE Will America Triumph? Ralph Peters STACKPOLE BOOKS Copyright © 1999 by Stackpole Books First paperback edition 2001 Published by STACKPOLE BOOKS 5067 Ritter Road Mechanicsburg, PA 17055 www.stackpolebooks.com All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this book or portions thereof in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. All inquiries should be addressed to Stackpole Books, 5067 Ritter Road, Mechanicsburg, Pennsylva- nia 17055. Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 First Edition Cover photo by Peter Turnley/Corbis Cover design by Caroline Stover We gratefully acknowledge the cooperation of the following publications for the production of this book: Parameters, the U.S. Army War College quarterly, whose editor, John J. Madigan, facilitated our use of those essays that had been printed there; editor Abigail DuBois of Strategic Review and Dr. Earl Tilford of the Strategic Studies Institute for the same reason; and the Army Times for permission to use Mario Villafuerte’s photograph of the author. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Peters, Ralph, 1952- Fighting for the future : will America triumph? / Ralph Peters. — 1st ed. p. cm. ISBN 0-8117-0651-6 (alk. paper) ISBN 0-8117-2805-6 1. War—Forecasting. 2. Military art and science—United States—Forecast- ing. 3. Twenty-first century—Forecasts. I. Title. U21.2.P425 1999 355.02'01'12—dc21 98-45281 CIP RALPH PETERS retired from the U.S. Army shortly after his promotion to lieutenant colonel so that he could write and speak freely. He has served in or visited over fifty countries on five continents, and has published eleven novels, as well as numerous essays on military affairs, strategy, and international relations. Regarded as the most controversial military thinker of our time, his pre- scient work described the mind and goals of terrorists, warriors, and renegade armies years before they became a reality to America. From the reviews of Fighting for the Future: “The gut-level understanding of what motivates men and women to fight to the death, and what it takes for us to prevail, is at the heart of this book. Peters came to understand the cultural, religious, historical, territorial, and mythological drives that make men (and women) kill without mercy. Veterans . will recognize the hard truths in this book. Our uniformed mavericks and unconventional thinkers, and those with campaign ribbons from service at the cutting edge of our armed diplo- macy around the world, will make this a counter-culture classic. If you are not afraid of a contrarian view or new ideas, this [book] is more than worthwhile. It is a must.” —Maj. Gen. W. C. Gregson, USMC, Proceedings “Ralph Peters is quite frankly the most gifted military theorist of his generation. He is a genuine forward thinker who is brutally honest, thoroughly believable, and very often profound. His analyses are solidly grounded in the present, even when he is projecting some alternative and very nasty futures. Peters writes with conviction, integrity, and unusual artistry.” —Lt. Col. Robert B. Adolph, Jr., U.S. Army (Retd.), Special Warfare “Lt. Col. Ralph Peters does not think we can shrink from tomorrow’s conflicts behind a new Fortress America. Peters has been the most profound, prolific, and provocative essayist on the future of the U.S. military in the past decade. In all his works, Lt. Col. Peters has proven to be a passionate proponent for the individual soldier or Marine infantryman as our nation’s most effective instrument, and a tire- less advocate for military reform. In powerful prose . Peters predicts we will excite deep hatreds from what he calls ‘anti-states’ (failed states, criminals, terrorists). Fighting for the Future presents a series of strong arguments for change in the way the American military is preparing for war in the next century.” —Lt. Col. F. G. Hoffman, USMCR, Strategic Review “Every chapter challenges conventional wisdom and its purveyors without sugar- coating. With a style that is at once elegant, abrupt, entertaining, thoughtful, direct, and always thought-provoking, Peters is a man who makes us think. He tells us where, who, how, and why we will fight, but more important gives us the same analysis on those parties likely to be arrayed against the United States. He jets us through the future at almost the same pace that marks his successful novels.” —Dr. John Hillen, Parameters “Arguably the best thinker and certainly the best writer on international affairs in America today.” —Jack Kelly, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette “Ralph Peters is fighting for the future of the U.S. armed forces. [Peters insists] the United States must think from the perspective of the religious and ethnic zealot, warlord, cartel chief, terrorist, and transnational criminal. The essays help the reader stretch the envelope of understanding warfare.” —Col. James D. Blundell, U.S. Army (Retd.), Army “Provocative . hard-nosed . Peters makes a compelling argument that Ameri- cans are psychologically unprepared to understand the nature of their future foes.” —Capt. Jan Van Tol, U.S. Navy, Naval War College Review “A master craftsman . Peters has devoted considerable labor to making sense of the real world. In sharp contrast to the predictions of many other futurists, which soon fade into obscurity, Peters’ essays have a long shelf life. The preservative that keeps Peters’ work from going stale is its originality. Possessed of an extraordinarily independent mind . Peters’ position on America’s role in the world is likewise unique. Like Kipling, Peters realizes that there is much to admire in the men of deep conviction who present the biggest threat to peace. Like Kipling, he has profound knowledge of and sympathy for, the ordinary soldiers and Marines. Best of all, Peters partakes of the full measure of Kipling’s mastery of the English lan- guage. The reader who picks up Fighting for the Future will thus never have any doubt where Peters stands.” —Maj. Bruce I. Gudmundsson, USMCR, Marine Corps Gazette “It seems that retired Army Lt. Col. Ralph Peters could have had a great pitching career. The way he heaves rocks indicates a strong arm . unbridled intellectual energy.” —Ernest Blazar, The Washington Monthly “Peters has never been known to shy away from a controversial topic or to abandon an intellectual position just because it wasn’t politically correct. Peters is willing to take on just about any sacred cow, and he does so here with a decidedly irreverent wit. His personal theories of international relations and military conflict are appro- priate for a professional [soldier] of any pay grade. I strongly recommend this book.” —Capt. Robert L. Bateman, U.S. Army, Armor Contents The Myths of Autumn (2001) vii The Background of This Book xi The Culture of Future Conflict 1 After the Revolution 18 The New Warrior Class 32 Winning Against Warriors 48 Our Soldiers, Their Cities 70 The Future of Armored Warfare 84 A Revolution in Military Ethics? 102 Blood-isms 114 Constant Conflict 133 Spotting the Losers: Seven Signs of Noncompetitive States 151 Our New Old Enemies 171 Fighting for the Future 199 v In memory of Colonel John J. Madigan III United States Army, Retired 1936–1999 Patriot, Scholar, Gentleman The Myths of Autumn (2001) History is a bath of blood. —William James In the wake of the atrocities of the 11th of September, 2001, the American people reacted with inspiring patriotism and righteous anger. Shocked, they want revenge. As I write, ten days later, our gov- ernment is saying the right things: We are at war, the war will not be short, and it cannot be waged on the cheap. The nation’s mood is somber and martial. Yet, I do not believe the American people have realized, even now, how merciless, determined, and numerous our enemies are—and will be—in our long war against this “new warrior class” at its worst. We are opposed by men who, if they could push a button and destroy the United States, killing every man, woman, and child, would push that button and call it a good day’s work well done. They do not hate us as individuals, but that is irrelevant. They hate the per- verted vision of America they have constructed for themselves, a vision that, above all, excuses their own failure and the failure of their culture. Attacking the predatory, corrupt, immoral America of their imaginations is the only purpose left to them. Their impulse is toward immolation, of themselves and us, toward annihilation, toward apoc- alypse. Armageddon junkies to a man, they imagine their god is whis- pering in their ear, and that he is telling them to kill. Theirs is the jubilation of massacre, a side of mankind we cannot wish away. Do not look for reason. Expect hatred. The key to fighting such human monsters is not military power, or wealth, or good intelligence, or diplomatic skill, or building robust alliances, or even clever police work, although all of these things certainly matter. The key to destroying them is strength of will. If we cannot maintain the resolve to fight them to the death, they will be the victors. And they will keep on killing us. vii This is not—yet—a clash of civilizations. But if we are to be honest, it is a clash between Western civilization and the most violent, obsessed extremists of the Islamic world. We must not talk ourselves into fear or false guilt.

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