LeapFrog Enterprises, Inc. David Chan Andrew Wishner +1 (203) 747-4788 +1 (978) 835-0454 SELL
[email protected] [email protected] November 29, 2011 Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report for important information Even though LeapFrog has retuned more than 33% in the Vital Statistics past month, its current stock pricing is in a contrarian trend to the rest of the industry. Our Forecast: Overvalued by 15.75% Current Price: $5.00 (of 11/29/2011) Key Investment Considerations 52-Week Range: $2.57 - $6.50 LeapFrog’s current P/E ratio is close to double any of • Market Capitalization: $310.1 mm its industry peers, and its current stock price seems to be solely predicated on investors’ belief in the P/E Ratio: 26.53 unproven potential of the company’s new LeapPad EPS: 0.18 million product. • The company has only been profitable in 50% of the years since 1990, and given its severe losses in 2006, Exhibit 1: Company Revenue (in millions) 2007 and 2008, it will need to see explosive revenue 800 growth to earn back those losses. 600 400 • LeapFrog’s retained earnings has been declining 200 since 2005, and has been negative since 2006, 0 meaning that there is technically no equity value in 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2011E the company, apart from its assets and patents. 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Source: Historical Data Capital IQ, Chaner Capital Estimates Contents 1.1 Company Overview 2.1 Model Drivers 3.1 Appendix 4.1 Disclaimer © 2011, David Chan and Andrew Wishner 1 1.1 Company Overview LeapFrog Enterprises (Public, NASDAQ: LF) is an educational entertainment toy company.