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Leapfrog Enterprises, Inc. Securities Litigation 03-CV-05421-Exhibits 9-13

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Leapfrog Enterprises, Inc. Securities Litigation 03-CV-05421-Exhibits 9-13 EXHIBITS 9-13 Exhibit 9 United States I EMerrill Lynch FlashNote Education & Training Services 11 February 2004 Lauren R~chFine, CFA LeapFrog Enterprises First Vice President (1) 212 449-1179 LF Delivers on 44, Yet Questions Remain; NEUTIUL Sara Gubins Assistant vice president Announces Mgmt. Changes (1) 212 449-2943 Reason for Report: 44 & FY T)3 Results Volatility Risk: I HIGH LF; $30.40; C-2-9 GAAP EPS (Dec): 2002A 50.86; 2003A 51.20; 2004E $1.43 GAAP P/E(Dec): 2002A 35.3~;2003A 25.3~;2004E 21.3~ Event LeapFrog reported a solid Q4'03, with diluted EPS of $O.7Ush, up 43.6% YoY, beating our estimate by $0.04/sh, $O.Ol/sh below consensus, and within mgmt. guidance of $0.69- S0.76Ish. For the year, EPS grew 40.4% to $1.20/sh vs. $0.86/sh last year, beating our est. by c $0.03/sh, $O.Ol/sh below consensus, and within mgrnt. guidance of $1.17-$1.25/sh. LF issued 2004 guidance, projecting 18-25% rev. growth, 21-31% net income growth and 16-26% EPS growth. In a separate release, LF announced that founder and CEO Michael Wood is stepping down as CEO and t3kng on the role of Chief Vision & Creative Officer. Tom Kalinske, LF's chairman of the board, will resume his role as CEO,Jerry Perez will join LF as president, & director Steve Fink will become chairman of the board. Conference call at 9am ET on Zll. Analysis 44 revenue grew 33.4% YoY to $331.4MM, near the high end of mgmt.'s guided range of $3 16-$334MM, and $1 SMM higher than our estimate. Based on the high accounts receivable position at year end, and high inventory levels we noted in early January at retail, we have some concern that 44 sales stole from Q1'04. Underscoring our concern about sales late in the quarter is a cash flow statement that suggests that cash and short term investments would not have grown except for the proceeds and tax benefits from stock options. US consumer sales grew 25.1 % to $273.4MM ($IOMM higher than our est), international sales grew 95.8% to S46.8MM ($2.3MM higher than our est.), and education & training sales grew 84.6% to $1 1.1 MM,(02.7MM higher than our estimate). According to LF, NF'D reported that LF was the leading manufacturer of pre-school products in the U.S. in Q4, with market share increasing from 17.5% to 27.5%, although we note that NPD does not 0 include WalMart or Toys R Us data, which in the past have represented roundly 58% of LF sales. Sell-thru at 22 US retailers (96% of LF's US sales) increased 27% for the yeat in Leappad family platforms and 33% in Leappad family software. We note that sell-through in 43 was up approximately 35%, with platform sell-through up 40% & software up 80%. This was on a relatively low dollar volume and wasn't limited to just the Leappad family, but we hope to learn more about Q4 sell-through trends on the conference call tomorrow. 44 gross margins declined 308bps vs. last year to 47.9%, 380bps below our 5 1.7% projection. Management attributed the decline to lower margins on Leapster sales, which incurred airfreight costs. Operating expense grew 14.3% in the quarter, below our expectation of 18.9% growth, driven primarily by better than expected SG&A costs and lower depreciation expense. LF noted that advertising (14.3% of sales) was impacted by increased TV ad expense, although it came in slightly below our estimate as a percentage of sales. Operating margins in Q4 were 20.6% vs. our estimate of 21.7%. In the quarter, LF had other income of $ 1.m& booked a reserve due to the KB Toys bankruptcy. The tax rate was 37.1%, yielding net income of W.2MM. up 50.4% YoY and $ I .SMM higher than our projection seeking or will seek investment banking or other Refer to important disclosures on page 3. business relationships with the companies in this report. Analyst Certification on page 2. Menill Lynch Global Securities Research & Economics Group Global Fundamental Equity Research Department LeapFrog Enterprises - 11 February 2004 For the year, revenue grew 27.Yh to $680MM, at the high growth of 24%, leading us to believe there is not much end of mgmt. guidance of $665-$683MM (and higher than downside at this level and that there is potential upside. the original guidance provided last Feb.), gross margins However, we are not yet ready to move to a more positive were 50% vs. mgmt. guidance of 51-52%, operating stance on the stock as we believe that industry dynamics margins were 16.1%, up 268bps YoY, and net income are changing, creating unceriainty for LF. In 2004, LF will grew 673% to I72.7MM. face increased competitive pressure fiom Fisher-Price as Matte1 has already announced that they are committed to Management issued 2004 guidance, projecting revenues of the space and are adding more platforms. We would note $800-$850MM, or 18-25% yearover year growth, a 50% gross margin each quarter, 34% tax rate vs. 37% in '03, net that in the past LF was able to grow margins as it benefited fiom having an innovative product in the market for income of $88-f 95MM, or 21-31% year over year growth, several years before significant competition entered the diluted EPS of Sl.39Ish-$1.51/sh, or 16-26% a~ual market. LF will not have the same kind of lead time growth. LF expects IH'04 sales to each represent prospectively, which could hurt the economics of each new approximately 10% of FY sales, with lower sales growth in the first half and higher in the second half Operating product hereafter. In addition, given that the potmtial impact on pricing due to the market share and price wars expenses are expected to grow 20-25% for the year, with between Wal-Mart and other retailers remains to be seen, growth of 10-15% in 41'04. and that we have not yet seen LF's new products for Separately, LF announced a number of management FY'04 which we look forward to learning more about at changes. Founder and CEO Michael Wood is stepping Toy Fair, it is difficult to have conviction for the upper end down as CEO to take on the role of Chief Vision & of management guidance. In addition, we do have a Creative Officer. Tom Kalinske, LF's chairman of the concern, that we hope to clarify in tomorrow's conference board since 1997, will resume his role as CEO, a position call, that late quarter sales stole from Q1 sales, as based on he held fiom 9/97 to 4/02. Jerry Perez will join LF as our channel checks in January, we have seen high levels of president. Mr. Perez was previously Executive VP of inventory at retailers and as accounts receivable represents Fisher-Price. Director Steve Fink will become chairman of an all time high of 85% of Q4 sales. the board. Mr. Fink has been a board member since 1999. He is the CEO of Lawrence Investments and is a Vice Analyst Certification Chairman of Knowledge Universe. This announcement came as a surprise and we are pleased to learn that I, Lauren Rich ~ine,hereby certify that the views although Mike Wood is stepping down as CEO, he will expressed in this research report accurately reflect my take on a new role at LeapFrog. We believe that Tom personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I Kalinske has been deeply involved in LeapFrog's business also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or and we therefore expect that the transition should be will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific relatively smooth. We do hope to learn more about the recommendations or view expressed in this research motivation for these changes on LF's conference call. report. Recommendation & Investment Thesis LF is trading at 25.3~'03A EPS and 21.3~our '04 estimate (which has not yet been revised for today's results). Overall, the Q4 results were strong and it is interesting to note that a year ago, LF was projecting 2003 revenue of $625-S675MM, net income of $55-62MM, and diluted EPS of S0.9ltsh-$1.02/sh. While there have been ups and downs during the year, LF delivered a solid 2003. We are pleased to see that LF has issued 2004 guidance projecting net income growth of 21-31% and EPS growth of 16-26%, although we note that given that the environment has changed, we are approaching guidance a bit more skeptically than we have in the past. We maintain our Neutral rating on the shares. If we assume the low end of '04 earnings guidance and assume the low end of EPS growth of 16%, LF is currently trading at a PEG ratio of 1.37~'04 estimates,just below the average of Manel and Hasbro of I .41x, suggesting that it is fairly valued. However, if we use the mid-range of EPS guidance, assume 20% growth over the next several years, and discount the PEG ratio to 1.3x, this yields prospective Refer to importanl disclosures on page 3. .W~enil~~ynch - LeapFrog Enterprises - 1. I ~tbruary2004 Important Disclosures LF hice Chart 10TekBwm I SB:SmgBrj, B:Bq.
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