Early Warning System for the Hydro-Meteorological Hazards Along the Bulgarian Coast of the Black Sea

Bulgarian Academy of Sciences National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH-BAS)

Early Warning System for the hydro-meteorological hazards along the Bulgarian coast of the Black Sea

Vasko Galabov, Anna.Kortcheva

4th Annual Interagency Interaction in Crisis Management and Disaster Response Conference 31May-2June 2016, Sofia, Bulgaria, CMDR-COE.

CMDR-COE 1 31May - 2 June 2016 NIMH – Marine Meteorology activities

NIMH-BAS Marine meteorology system provides data, products and services for: • Maritime transport and safety; • Marine environmental activities; • Fisheries; • Coastal management; • Research & development; • Disaster Risk Reduction; • Tourism; • General public

CMDR-COE 2 31May - 2 June 2016 NIMH – Marine Meteorology activities

• Strong winds, high waves and storm surges are the greatest danger for the coastal areas. • An accurate prediction of the sea-state is absolutely necessary to minimize the risk at the sea and along the coastal zones. • Wind waves and storm surge forecasting is the main part of the marine multi-hazard warning system for the western part of the Black sea

CMDR-COE 3 31May - 2 June 2016 NIMH-BAS marine forecasting system

Wave models WW3, SWAN

Internet NIMH-BAS Storm surge TOULOUSE SOFIA model Global SLBUL Limited area Atmospheric atmospheric End model model users ARPEGE ALADIN Pollutants drift model MOTHY

CMDR-COE 4 31May - 2 June 2016 NIMH-BAS marine forecasting system (cont.)

• The NIMH-BAS marine forecasting system is a result of the scientific collaboration between NIMH-BAS and Meteo- France; • The system is in operational use since 1996 and continuously being upgraded; • The main purpose of the system is the real time wind, waves, storm surge and pollutants drift forecast for the Black Sea area;

CMDR-COE 5 31May - 2 June 2016 Wave models in operational use

NIMH operates two models for wave prediction: • WAVEWATCH III (WW3), version 3.14 – third generation wave model (NCEP); • SWAN – a high-resolution wave forecasting model suitable for the wave propagation in the coastal zone (TU- DELFT);

CMDR-COE 6 31May - 2 June 2016 Wind forcing

• The surface wind components at 10 m from the numerical weather prediction operational models ARPEGE and ALADIN are used to force the wave models; • The wind fields are available on 3 hour intervals to (T+72) on a regular latitude-longitude resolution grid with:

ARPEGE: 0.25°x0.25° mesh size ALADIN: 0.125°x0.125° mesh size

CMDR-COE 7 31May - 2 June 2016 Wind forcing (ARPEGE/ALADIN NWP models)

The official numerical weather forecasting tool in NIMH is the atmospheric model ALADIN ( Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational). The model is common development of consortium of 15 national meteorological services. This is a spectral model for regional forecasting of meteorological fields. Initial and boundary conditions are provided from the global model ARPEGE, which is a result of the common development between ECMWF and Meteo-France. The two models are close related.

CMDR-COE 8 31May - 2 June 2016 ALADIN model. Region & Orography

CMDR-COE 9 31May - 2 June 2016 Wave models output

Products from the numerical wave models: • Significant wave height; • Mean direction of wave propagation; • Mean period; • Swell wave height; • Mean Swell direction; • Mean Swell period • Other parameters if needed by the end user

CMDR-COE 10 May 31- 2 June 2016 Wave forecast (WW3)

CMDR-COE 11 May 31- 2 June 2016 SWAN – high resolution coastal zone wave model

CMDR-COE 12 May 31- 2 June 2016 Operational Wave forecast

• The wave models (WW3 and SWAN) run in forecast mode, twice daily, based on 06:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC. • Wave products are available via INTERNET to the Regional meteorological center in Varna and Executive Agency MARITIME ADMINISTRATION-Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centre - Varna; • The NIMH-BAS marine forecasting system issues “warnings of danger” in case of storm situations in the Black Sea; • The wave models results are archived and can be used for the statistical investigations of the sea state parameters in the Black Sea

CMDR-COE 13 May 31- 2 June 2016 NIMH – METEOALARM WARNINGS

Meteoalarm, a web-based service to warn people in Europe of severe weather Meteoalarm is developed by EUMETNET, the network of public European weather services who are members of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). NIMH provides with atmospheric and marine operational numerical forecasts the coastal hazard Early Warning System and meteorological vigilance map EUROPEAN METEOALARM

CMDR-COE 14 31May - 2 June 2016 NIMH – METEOALARM WARNINGS

CMDR-COE 15 31May - 2 June 2016 NIMH – METEOALARM WARNINGS

Meteoalarm, a web-based service to warn people in Europe of severe weather .

CMDR-COE 16 31May - 2 June 2016 NIMH – Floating pollutants drift forecast

• Tanker transportation is the source of potential risks of the oil pollution in the Black Sea;

The operational oil spill drift forecasting model of Meteo-France (MOTHY) was adopted for the Black Sea;

CMDR-COE 17 May 31- 2 June 2016 Simulation of the oil slick

CMDR-COE 18 31May 31- 2 June 2016 Simulation of the oil slick

CMDR-COE 19 May 31- 2 June 2016 Oil spill simmulation

CMDR-COE 20 May 31- 2 June 2016 Computer resources

The numerical models have been implemented on a PC with two Intel processors, operating under LINUX operational system.

Graphics software The Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) The Generic Mapping Tools (GMT)

CMDR-COE 21 May 31- 2 June 2016 Conclusions

The marine system is designed to: • Describe and forecast the Black Sea surface state; • Mitigate damage from natural hazards and pollution; • Protect life and property on coasts and at sea; • Enable scientific research; The system is a platform for regional cooperation and operational activities. The system is the component of the current National hydro- meteorological information system and a major component of the future Multi-Hazard Early Warning System.

CMDR-COE 22 31May - 2 June 2016 Thank you for your attention!

Contacts: The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIMH-BAS) Vasko Galabov Marine Forecast Division Forecasts Department Tel: +359 (0)2 462 4606 [email protected] www.meteo.bg

CMDR-COE 23 31May - 2 June 2016