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Numerical Simulations and Operational Forecast of the Hydro-Meteorological Hazards Along the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast

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Numerical Simulations and Operational Forecast of the Hydro-Meteorological Hazards Along the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast Increasing Resilience through Earth Observation- IncREO Numerical simulations and operational forecast of the hydro-meteorological hazards along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. Results from the EU FP7 project IncREO. Assoc. Prof. Anna Kortcheva, PhD & Vasko Galabov (NIMH-BAS) International seminar “Crisis Management and Disaster Response Interagency Interaction”. Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014. Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence Content The objective, project facts, partners Work package 202 (WP202):Winds, waves, storm-surges Climate change and Coastal hazards Operational system of NIMH for marine forecasts Downscaling procedure – high resolution WIND fields Simulation of waves and storm-surges Use of the EO satelitte data for validation of IncREO results IncREO Bulgarian END-USERS IncREO products European system METEOALARM Early Warning System, activities, interagency interaction The overall objective of IncREO • IncREO aims to provide actors responsible for disaster management, risk prevention, civil protection and also spatial planning with EO- based solutions contributing particularly to an improved preparedness and mitigation planning for areas highly vulnerable to natural disasters and already noticeable climate change trends. • The types of IncREO products are mainly “assets maps” and “hazard / risk and vulnerability maps”,extreme events - results from numerical simulations. Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Project facts • GMES/Copernicus FP7 project IncREO (Increasing Resilience through Earth Observation), GA number 312461 • Duration: 2 years (01.01.2013 – 31.12.2014) • European consortium of 9 partners from industry, science and public institutions • http://www.increo-fp7.eu/ Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Parthers • Spot Image SA (Astrium GEO), France • geomer GmbH, Germany • GeoVille Information System, Austria • University Twente (ITC), the Netherlands • UNESCO, France/Italy • NIMH, Bulgaria • Meteo France, France • Romanian Space Agency, ROSA, Romania • Infoterra GmbH (Astrium GEO), Germany Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 WP202 WINDS, WAVES , STORM-SURGES Partners: Meteo-France (MF) and the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIMH-BAS) Winds, waves and storm-surges are connected to each other and therefore the studies of these phenomena is the key to the understanding of the impacts that climate change will have on coastal areas. Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Transferability Two areas have been considered in WP202, the French and Bulgarian coastlines respectively: Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Climate Change and Coastal Hazards • The global climate change in the mean temperature is predicted to provoke a rise of the global sea level. • This will have a negative impact on a big amount of coastal areas all over the world. Land areas will be flooded and big amounts of sediments will be eroded • Even if the risks concerns a relatively distant future it is important for the coastal municipalities to start make investigations and try to gain an overview of the potential risks connected to a rising sea level (EU Floods Directive) Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Climate change and Coastal hazards Report of EC about Climate Change: Coastal erosion poses the greatest threat to the coastal zones of Bulgaria. About 45% of the coastline is currently subject to erosion, assumed to be caused by a combination of human activities as well as natural events such as extreme wind waves. The risk of flooding due to Sea Level Rise (SLR) is rather limited as SLR is expected to be modest, tides are non-existent (8-9 sm) and currents are very weak along the Black Sea shoreline. Also the significant altitude of most parts of the Bulgarian coastal zones (70%) makes the risk of coastal flooding less severe. IPCC - Intergovermental Panel of Climate Change (5th Assessment report) The total sea level =Storm-surges+tides+SLR+WAVES (wave set-up, wave run-up, overtopping) Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Hydro-meteorological hazards • Hydro-meteorological events (strong winds, high waves and storm-surges) are DRIVERS to the coastal HAZARDS (flooding and coastal erosion)! • Comprehensive information about storm- surges and wind-waves along and Bulgarian Black Sea coast will be used by end-users for identification, risk assessment and risk management of the potential areas vulnerable to flooding and coastal erosion. Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Storm surge & waves =sea level rise + waves ! Storm surge Reached level (tide gauges) Predicted level (tides) Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Sea level rise and coastal flooding Implementation of the EU Flood Directive (NIMH – Methodology) Map of the inundation near the town of Kiten (Bulgarian coastal zone of the Black Sea). Projected 100-year flooding area. BDBS-Varna, Bulgaria From observations to numerical predictions Observations Forecast model ERS, ASCAT Vents MODIS SSMIS IASI AIRS Data assimilation Wave & storm surge numerical models Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Simulation of historical storm situations • Simulation of historical storm situations is a key tool in examining potential coastal hazards • In the absence of measured data, site-specific storm surges and wave hindcasts satisfy the need for historic data • One of the priorities of IncREO project is to generate high resolution wind forcing for the wave and storm-surge models, in order to describe in details the features and processes which characterize hazards within the coastal areas of France and Bulgaria. Crisis ManagementKick-off meeting, and Disaster Brussels, Response Jan. Centre of Excellence,23/24, Sofia, 2013 Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Operation system of NIMH-BAS for marine forecasts Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Downscaling -tool for obtaining the high resolution fields • Downscaling, proposed in the framework of this project (WP202), targets the study of risks of extreme winds and dangerous coastal events for France and Bulgaria • Downscaled atmospheric data (winds and sea level pressure) is highly useful for detailed hindcast of waves and storm surges in coastal areas of France and Bulgaria ECMWF ERA-Interin reanalyses resolution:79 km spatial and 6 hours temporal IncREO downscaled fields 10 km spatial and 1 hour temporal resolution Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Region and orography of the limited area NWP model ALADIN Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Downscaled wind field This map provides a snapshot of downscaled ERA-Interin ECMWF reanalyse (from 79 km to 10 km) wind field over the Black Sea during the max of storm situation on February 2012 Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Simulation of past storm surge events with Aladin downscaling from ERA-Interim Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Geo-referenced storm-surge model output • Example of BS_022012 (Bulgarian case): Maximum storm-surge Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Geo-referenced wave model output Significant wave height Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Validation The EO satellite data has been used for the validation study: • The altimeter wave data from TOPEX-POSEIDON, ERS1/2, Envisat and JASON1/2 satellites used for the validation of the SWAN and WAVEWATCH III wave models using in the hindcast study of WP202 (NIMH) • The scatterometer wind data from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on board the Metop-A satellite used for the validation of the regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN (NIMH) Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 Increasing resilience trough satellite Earth observation Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 JASON 2 satellite track & model SWH Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014 End users involvement French end-user : SCHAPI (Central Service for Hydrometeorology and Support to flood forecasting part of the Directorate General for Risk Prevention, under the Ministry on Ecology, Sustainable development and Energy) Bulgarian end-users: 1. Chief Directorate Fire Safety and Civil Protection (CD FSCP), Ministry of Interior (Bulgaria) - Mr. Stoycho Andreev. Helps the project with dissemination of WARNINGS. 2. Basin Directorate for Water Management in the Black Sea Region (Ministry of Environment and Waters). Risk management planning in the framework of the EU Water and Flood Directives - Director of BD Mr. Yavor Dimitrov. BDBS has provided the project with DEM and GIS
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