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The Sri Lankan Economy Charting a New Course THE SRI LANKAN ECONOMY CHARTING A NEW COURSE Edited by Prema-chandra Athukorala, Edimon Ginting, Hal Hill, and Utsav Kumar ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK THE SRI LANKAN ECONOMY CHARTING A NEW COURSE E dited by Prema-chandra Athukorala, Edimon Ginting, Hal Hill, and Utsav Kumar ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2017 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2017. Printed in the Philippines. ISBN 978-92-9257-973-9 (Print), 978-92-9257-974-6 (e-ISBN) Publication Stock No. TCS178786-2 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS178786-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo. Photos in this publication are the property of ADB. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. ADB recognizes “Ceylon” as Sri Lanka and “United States of America” as the United States. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda Printed on recycled paper Contents Boxes, Figures, and Tables ........................................................................................ vii Foreword .....................................................................................................................xiii Foreword ...................................................................................................................... xv Preface ........................................................................................................................xvii Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. xx Author Profiles .........................................................................................................xxiii The Sri Lankan Economy: Achievements, Prospects, and Policy Issues ........... 1 1.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Sri Lankan Economic Development: Some Stylized Facts ......................2 1.3. Sri Lanka: A Brief Policy History ..................................................................6 1.3.1. Trade Policy Regime..............................................................................9 1.3.2. Export Promotion and the Role of the Export Development Board ................................................... 13 1.3.3 Foreign Investment Policy ................................................................. 14 1.3.4. Labor Market ....................................................................................... 16 1.3.5. Macroeconomic Policy ....................................................................... 19 1.4. The Sri Lankan Development Record ..................................................... 20 1.4.1. Economic Growth ...............................................................................20 1.4.2. Structural Change ...............................................................................22 1.4.3. Savings and Investment ......................................................................23 1.4.4. Inflation and Unemployment ............................................................24 1.4.5. Export Structure .................................................................................27 1.4.6. Poverty and Inequality ........................................................................33 1.4.7. Comparative Dimensions ..................................................................35 1.5. Major Themes and Issues ............................................................................38 1.6. Policy Inferences .......................................................................................... 44 Economic Performance and Macroeconomic Management ..............................51 2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 51 2.2. Fiscal Policy ....................................................................................................52 2.3. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy .........................................................67 2.4. Concluding Remarks .....................................................................................72 iii iv Contents Logistics and Services in the Sri Lankan Economy .................................................... 81 3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 81 3.2. Services ............................................................................................................82 3.2.1. Sri Lanka’s Changing Economic Structure ....................................82 3.2.2. Major Service Subsectors ...................................................................84 3.2.3. Policy and Reform Options ................................................................87 3.3. Logistics ...........................................................................................................88 3.3.1. An Overview ..........................................................................................88 3.3.2. The Sri Lankan Logistics Subsector ................................................90 3.3.3. Transport Infrastructure ....................................................................94 3.3.4. The Policy, Regulatory, and Institutional Framework.................97 3.3.5. Regulatory, Policy, and Institutional Impediments ..................... 101 3.4. Recommendations for Logistics ...............................................................103 3.5. Conclusions ...................................................................................................105 Manufacturing Exports: Opportunities, Achievements, and Policy Options ......................................................................................................111 4.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................111 4.2. Analytical Framework .................................................................................113 4.3. Export Performance .................................................................................... 116 4.4. The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Export Expansion....................................................................................126 4.5. Determinants of Exports ............................................................................130 4.5.1. Econometrics ......................................................................................130 4.5.2. Evidence from Field Surveys...........................................................134 4.6. Summary and Policy Inferences ............................................................... 137 Modernizing Agriculture in Sri Lanka—Status and Challenges ......................147 5.1. The Context ..................................................................................................148 5.2. Agriculture in the Economy of Sri Lanka ...............................................148 5.2.1. Historical Overview ..........................................................................148 5.2.2. Contribution to Gross Domestic Product .....................................150 5.2.3. Labor Force Participation .................................................................151 5.2.4. Land-Use Patterns ............................................................................. 152 5.2.5. Food Consumption Pattern.............................................................. 153 5.2.6. Agriculture and Food Trade ............................................................154 5.3. Sri Lankan Agriculture Compared with Neighboring Countries .....................................................................
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