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Technical Assistance for Capacity Building in Compilation and Analysis of the Fuel and Energy Balance for the Kyrgyz Republic (AHEF 113.KG) FINAL REPORT

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Technical Assistance for Capacity Building in Compilation and Analysis of the Fuel and Energy Balance for the Kyrgyz Republic (AHEF 113.KG) FINAL REPORT Technical assistance for capacity building in compilation and analysis of the fuel and energy balance for the Kyrgyz Republic (AHEF 113.KG) FINAL REPORT INOGATE Technical Secretariat and Integrated Programme in support of the Baku Initiative and the Eastern Partnership energy objectives Contract No 2011/278827 A project within the INOGATE Programme Implemented by: Ramboll Denmark A/S (lead partner) EIR Development Partners Ltd. The British Standards Institution LDK Consultants S.A. MVV decon GmbH ICF International Statistics Denmark Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar INOGATE Technical Secretariat http://www.inogate.org Document title Technical assistance for capacity building in compilation and analysis of the fuel and energy balance for the Kyrgyz Republic (AHEF 113.KG), Final Report Document status Draft Name Date Prepared by Damir Pešut 01/12/2014 Alenka Kinderman Lončarevid Checked by Approved by This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publica- tion are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. INOGATE Technical Secretariat http://www.inogate.org Contents 1 Executive summary........................................................................................................ 9 2 Data collection and availability .................................................................................... 10 2.1 Input data for short-term energy demand forecast ............................................... 10 2.1.1 Air temperature ............................................................................................. 10 2.1.2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ....................................................................... 12 2.1.3 Natural Gas .................................................................................................... 13 2.1.4 Electricity ....................................................................................................... 13 2.1.5 Heat ............................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Input data for medium and long-term energy demand forecast ................................ 16 2.2.1 Population ..................................................................................................... 16 2.2.2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ....................................................................... 18 2.2.3 Final energy consumption .............................................................................. 18 3 Short-term energy demand forecast for the period 2014-2017 .................................... 20 3.1 Assessment of electricity demand for the period 2014-2017 .................................... 21 3.2 Assessment of heat demand for the period 2014-2017............................................. 24 4 Long-term energy demand forecasts for the period 2014 – 2035 - baseline scenario ... 29 4.1 Assessment of the final energy consumption in industry .......................................... 29 4.2 Assessment of the final energy consumption in agriculture ...................................... 32 4.3 Assessment of the final energy consumption in the transport sector ........................ 34 4.4 The final energy consumption in households ............................................................ 37 4.5 The final energy consumption in the service sector .................................................. 42 4.6 Total final energy consumption ................................................................................. 45 4.7 Structure of the final electricity consumption in Kyrgyzstan ...................................... 47 5 Long-term energy demand forecasts for the period 2014 – 2035 - scenario with measures ............................................................................................................................ 49 1.1 Measures in industry and agriculture ........................................................................ 49 1.2 Measures in transport .............................................................................................. 50 1.3 Measures in households ........................................................................................... 51 1.4 Measures in the service sector ................................................................................. 53 1.5 Total final energy consumption in the scenario with measures ................................. 54 1.6 Structure of the final electricity consumption in Kyrgyzstan in the scenario with 3 measures ............................................................................................................................ 56 1.7 Total energy efficiency and total savings in the final consumption ............................ 57 6 Annex 1. Assessment of the short-term electricity demand for DSOs........................... 58 6.1 Sever Electro ............................................................................................................ 58 6.2 Vostok Electro........................................................................................................... 59 6.3 Osh Electro ............................................................................................................... 60 7 Annex 1. Assessment of the short-term heat demand ................................................. 61 7.1 Bishkek Teploset ....................................................................................................... 61 7.2 Bishkek Teploenergo ................................................................................................. 62 4 List of figures Figure 1. Comparison of average monthly temperatures among the selected cities: Bishkek, Chuy, Jalal Abad, Osh ................................................................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 2. Comparison of average annual HDD for cities: Bishkek, Chuy, Jalal Abad and Osh .............................. 12 Figure 3. Average shares of GDP realised by months in the total annual GDP for the period 2006 - 2013 .......... 13 Figure 4. Electricity consumption structure in Kyrgyzstan in 2013 according to the reports from DSOs ............. 14 Figure 5. Heat distribution in 2013 in Bishkek Teploset, Bishkek Teploenergo i Кыргызжилкоммунсою ........... 15 Figure 6. The structure of heat consumption in Kyrgyzstan .............................................................................. 16 Figure 7. Population in Kyrgyzstan in the period 1950 – 2100 (Source: UN Population Division) ....................... 17 Figure 8. Comparison between realized consumption and estimated total electricity consumption ................. 22 Figure 9. Influence of model parameters on total electricity consumption in Kyrgyzstan .................................. 22 Figure 10. Results of the adjustment of the model for short-term electricity demand projections .................... 22 Figure 11. Total electricity demand forecast for the period 2014 - 2017 ........................................................... 24 Figure 12. Comparison between realized consumption and estimated total heat consumption ........................ 26 Figure 13. Influence of model parameters on total heat consumption ............................................................. 26 Figure 14. Results of the adjustment of the model for short-term projections of heat...................................... 26 Figure 15. Total heat demand forecast for the period 2014 - 2017 for the average year ................................... 28 Figure 16. The intensity of electricity consumption in industry ........................................................................ 29 Figure 17. The intensity of heat consumption in industry ................................................................................ 30 Figure 18. Final energy consumption forecast in industry by 2035 ................................................................... 31 Figure 19. The intensity of electricity consumption in agriculture .................................................................... 32 Figure 20. The intensity of heat consumption in agriculture ............................................................................ 33 Figure 21. Final energy consumption forecast in agriculture by 2035 ............................................................... 34 Figure 22. Tonne-kilometres per capita in Kyrgyzstan and the European countries ........................................... 35 Figure 23. Persons per car in Kyrgyzstan and the European countries .............................................................. 36 Figure 24. Final energy consumption forecast in transport .............................................................................. 37 Figure 25. Household size in Kyrgyzstan and the European countries ............................................................... 38 Figure 26. Average residential floor area in Kyrgyzstan and the European countries ......................................... 39 Figure 27. Household heat losses in Kyrgyzstan and the European countries.................................................... 40 Figure 28. Non-thermal electricity consumption per household in Kyrgyzstan and the European countries ...... 41 Figure 29. Final energy consumption forecast in households by 2035 .............................................................
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