Vehicle emissions, fuel quality standards and fuel economy policies in Kazakhstan Stocktaking analytical report ALMATY 2013 Regional environmental centre for Central Asia (CAREC) Almaty 2013 Our donors and partners Stocktaking analytical report: Vehicle emissions, fuel quality standards and fuel economy policies in Kazakhstan Content Introduction. 2 Overview of motor vehicle fleet in Kazakhstan . .4 Production and consumption of transport fuels. 8 Motor vehicle emissions and air pollution . 10 State regulation and policy framework . .14 Conclusions. 20 Recommendations . 22 References. 24 Annex: Fuel and vehicle standards in other Central Asian countries . 26 List of Tables Table 1. Main economic and transport sector development indicators of Kazakhstan . 2 Table 2. Annual air pollution in the city of Almaty. 11 Table 3. Schedule of introduction of EURO standards for vehicles and fuels (as of Dec, 2013). 14 Table 4. Maximum allowable concentrations of pollutants in vehicle exhaust gases . 17 Table 5. Established minimal energy efficiency requirements for road vehicles . 18 Таблица 6. Автотранспортный сектор в Центральной Азии . 26 List of Figures Figure 1. Motor vehicle fleet in Kazakhstan. .4 Figure 2. Car distribution by region as of June 2013. .5 Figure 3. Vehicle density by region in 2012. 6 Figure 4. Passenger cars distribution by engine size as of June 2013 . 7 Figure 5. Age distribution of passenger cars fleet as of June 2013. 7 Figure 6. Production of gasoline and diesel in Kazakhstan between 1990 and 2012 . 8 Figure 7. Production/consumption balance of gasoline in Kazakhstan between 1990 and 2012 . .9 Figure 8 Location of air pollution stations/posts in Kazakhstan. .10 Figure 9. Breakdown of GHG emissions from transport sector . 12 Figure 10. Respiratory disease morbidity in 2012. 13 The report assesses the current transport sector in Kazakhstan including information and trends in relevant policy framework, key problems and other issues, with an overview of vehicle-fuel economy and emission policies, fuel quality legislation as well as other relevant related policies in Kazakhstan Regional environmental centre for Central Asia (CAREC) 1 Introduction azakhstan, located in Central Asia, is the ninth sector, the government is focused on development largest country in the world in terms of territory of manufacturing industries and increase of value- K(2724.9 thousand km2), and possesses enormous added output production in the country. Further natural resources. Population of the country is around development of the transport sector and respective 17 million people, and the largest cities are: Almaty infrastructure thus is seen as a facilitation tool for (1.48 million), Astana (786 thousand), Shymkent (668 economic diversifi cation in the country. thousand) and Karagandy (480 thousand). Steady income growth in the country over the past Endowed with large fossil fuel reserves, Kazakhstan two decades has signifi cantly increased vehicle has achieved considerable GDP growth at average ownership among the population. It is claimed that annual rate of 8% since 2000, mainly due to the growing number of cars, coupled with problems export of oil and other mineral resources. Transport related to quality of the vehicle fuels in the country, is among key sectors of the domestic economy has eventually led to excessive air pollution and providing 6% of the country`s GDP (The Agency of raised health issues, particularly in urban areas. Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). The continuously deteriorating air quality in large cities has been a longstanding concern of the civil The road network of Kazakhstan has increased by community and NGOs that increasingly demand 13% since the collapse of the Soviet Union and for tougher intervention from the state and other expected to expand further. In order to reduce stakeholders into the situation. reliance of the economy on oil and gas mining Table 1. Main economic and transport sector development indicators of Kazakhstan Indicator 2000 2005 2010 2012 GDP (current billion USD) 18.3 57.1 148.1 203.5 GNI per capita, PPP (current USD) 4,480 7,850 10,440 11,780 Population (million) 14.9 15.1 16.3 16.8 Goods transported by all transport (billion ton-km) 207.1 296.3 385.3 478.0 Passengers carried by all transport (million passenger-km 73,105 107,600 149,065 213,036 Source: Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, World Bank 2 Almaty 2013 Stocktaking analytical report: Vehicle emissions, fuel quality standards and fuel economy policies in Kazakhstan The main aim of this report is to assess the current As of 2012, motor vehicle fleet in Kazakhstan transport sector in Kazakhstan, vehicle emissions, constituted around 4.1 million units, 87% of which as well as main policy and regulatory framework are passenger cars. Figure 1 indicates the dynamics of related to fuel quality and air pollution by transport. the total motor vehicle fleet since 1990 till 2012. From The report provides an overview of the current state 1991 till 1999 motor vehicle fleet had been declining and trends in the country`s vehicle fleet structure, by 1% annually, following economic downturn after production and consumption of transport fuels, fuel the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since 2000, motor quality standards and fuel economy policies adopted vehicle fleet has been showing rapid growth rate, in the country. following a tremendous economic growth of the country over the last decade and tripling the number of vehicles by 2012. Regional environmental centre for Central Asia (CAREC) 3 Overview of motor vehicle fleet in Kazakhstan s of 2012, motor vehicle fleet in Kazakhstan following economic downturn after the collapse of constituted around 4.1 million units, 87% of the Soviet Union. Since 2000, motor vehicle fleet Awhich are passenger cars. Figure 1 indicates has been showing rapid growth rate, following a the dynamics of the total motor vehicle fleet tremendous economic growth of the country over since 1990 till 2012. From 1991 till 1999 motor the last decade and tripling the number of vehicles vehicle fleet had been declining by 1% annually, by 2012. Figure 1. Motor vehicle fl eet in Kazakhstan 5000 14000 12000 4000 10000 3000 8000 6000 2000 Thousands 4000 2000 USD Constant 1000 2000 0 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Passengers cars Heavy-duty vehicles GDP per capita Source: Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the World Bank 4 Almaty 2013 Stocktaking analytical report: Vehicle emissions, fuel quality standards and fuel economy policies in Kazakhstan Passenger cars Heavy-duty vehicles Passenger cars dominate the motor transport fleet It is estimated that total number of heavy trucks in of Kazakhstan, with total number of cars passing Kazakhstan in 2012 has reached more than 420,000 3,700,000 units in 2012. Due to the combination of units, whereas total number of registered buses in income growth and availability of bank loans, the Kazakhstan reached 97,000 units1. Although the number of private cars has been rapidly growing absolute number of heavy-duty vehicles has been since 2000. The fastest growth was observed in 2006 growing since 2000 and almost maintained at 1991 and 2007, when the average annual growth was at level by 2012, their share in the total vehicle fleet around 25%. has been declining for the same period due to more intensive growth of passenger cars. Figure 2. Car distribution by region as of 1-Jan-2013 2.7% 3.6% 6.4% 3.9% Akmola 10.4% 12.5% Aktobe Almaty 4.2% Almaty City 4.5% 13.7% Astana Atyrau 2.5% East kazakhstan 4.6% 5.4% 3.2% Karagandy 8.8% 3.6% 9.0% Kostanay Kyzylorda Mangystau Notrh Kazakhstan Pavlodar South Kazakhstan WestKazakhstan Zhambyl Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan 1 Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan Regional environmental centre for Central Asia (CAREC) 5 Overview of motor vehicle fleet in Kazakhstan Vehicle fl eet regional distribution and density About third of all passenger cars are registered in According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the the most densely populated regions: Almaty city, Republic of Kazakhstan, almost 40% of all registered cars have engine size in the range of 1.5-2.0 liters, Almaty region and South Kazakhstan. Similar to as seen in Figure 4. Planned increase of vehicle tax distribution of the passenger cars, about 30-35% for cars with engine size bigger than 3.0 liters may of all heavy duty vehicles and buses are registered reduce the share of such vehicles in the fleet from in South Kazakhstan, Almaty and Kostanay regions. 2014. Vehicle density has tripled from 2003, and consisted Almost 2.9 million passenger cars (80%) are 10 years 21.3 per 1000 people in 2012. Almaty and Astana and older, as displayed in Figure 5. The biggest are the cities with the highest vehicle density in the number of passenger cars under three years is in country, as shown in Figure 3. Almaty city, Astana and Atyrau region, whereas about 90% of all passenger cars in Almaty and Zhambyl regions are over 10 years old. Figure 3. Vehicle density by region in 2012 40 35 30 25 20 15 Per 100 people Per 10 5 0 Atyrau Aktobe Astana Akmola Almaty Pavlodar Zhambyl Kostanay Kyzylorda Karagandy Mangystau Almaty city East kazakhstan South Kazakstan West Kazakhstan West North Kazakhstan Country-wide average Source: Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan 6 Almaty 2013 Stocktaking analytical report: Vehicle emissions, fuel quality standards and fuel economy policies in Kazakhstan Figure 4. Passenger cars distribution by engine size as of 1-Jan-2013 0.8% 1.6% <1.1 2.8% 13.1% 13.4% 1.1-1.5 1.5-2.0 10.7% 2.0-2.5 2.5-3.0 15.9% 3.0-4.0 39.7% >4.0 Not Defi ned Figure 5.