Transmission Annual Planning Report
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Powerlink Queensland Transmission Annual Planning Report 2017 Please direct Transmission Annual Planning Report enquiries to: Kevin Kehl Executive General Manager Strategy and Business Development Division Powerlink Queensland Telephone: (07) 3860 2801 Email: [email protected] Disclaimer: While care is taken in the preparation of the information in this report, and it is provided in good faith, Powerlink Queensland accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage that may be incurred by persons acting in reliance on this information or assumptions drawn from it. Contents Transmission Annual Planning Report 2017 Executive Summary _________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 1. Introduction _________________________________________________________ 13 1.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________ 14 1.2 Context of the TAPR _______________________________________________________________________ 14 1.3 Purpose of the TAPR ________________________________________________________________________ 15 1.4 Role of Powerlink Queensland ______________________________________________________________ 15 1.5 Overview of approach to asset management _______________________________________________ 16 1.5.1 Asset Management Policy ____________________________________________________________________ 16 1.5.2 Asset Management Strategy _________________________________________________________________ 16 1.5.3 Asset risk management _______________________________________________________________________ 16 1.6 Overview of planning responsibilities and processes ________________________________________ 16 1.6.1 Planning criteria and processes ______________________________________________________________ 16 1.6.2 Integrated planning of the shared network __________________________________________________ 17 1.6.3 Planning of connections ______________________________________________________________________ 19 1.6.4 Planning of interconnectors __________________________________________________________________ 19 1.7 Powerlink’s asset planning criteria ___________________________________________________________ 20 1.8 Stakeholder engagement ____________________________________________________________________ 21 1.8.1 Customer and consumer engagement ______________________________________________________ 21 1.8.2 Non-network solutions ______________________________________________________________________22 1.8.3 Focus on continuous improvement _________________________________________________________24 2. Energy and demand projections __________________________________________ 25 2.1 Overview ___________________________________________________________________________________ 26 2.2 Customer consultation ______________________________________________________________________ 29 2.3 Demand forecast outlook ___________________________________________________________________ 30 2.3.1 Future management of maximum demand __________________________________________________ 31 2.3.2 Demand and energy terminology ___________________________________________________________ 31 2.3.3 Energy forecast _______________________________________________________________________________33 2.3.4 Summer maximum demand forecast ________________________________________________________35 2.3.5 Winter maximum demand forecast _________________________________________________________37 2.4 Zone forecasts ______________________________________________________________________________ 38 2.5 Daily and annual load profiles _______________________________________________________________ 46 3. Committed and commissioned network developments _______________________ 47 3.1 Transmission network ______________________________________________________________________ 48 3.2 Committed and commissioned transmission projects _______________________________________ 48 4. Future network development ___________________________________________ 53 4.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________ 54 4.1.1 Integrated approach to network development _____________________________________________55 4.1.2 Forecast capital expenditure _________________________________________________________________55 4.1.3 Forecast network limitations _________________________________________________________________56 4.2 Proposed network developments ___________________________________________________________ 57 4.2.1 Far North zone _______________________________________________________________________________57 4.2.2 Ross zone _____________________________________________________________________________________58 4.2.3 North zone ___________________________________________________________________________________62 4.2.4 Central West and Gladstone zones _________________________________________________________64 4.2.5 Wide Bay zone ________________________________________________________________________________68 4.2.6 South West zone ____________________________________________________________________________69 4.2.7 Moreton zone _________________________________________________________________________________69 4.2.8 Gold Coast zone _____________________________________________________________________________72 3 Contents 4.3 Summary of forecast network limitations ___________________________________________________ 74 4.4 Consultations _______________________________________________________________________________ 74 4.4.1 Current consultations – proposed transmission investments ______________________________ 74 4.4.2 Future consultations – proposed transmission investments ________________________________ 74 4.4.3 Summary of forecast network limitations beyond the five-year outlook period __________75 4.4.4 Connection point proposals _________________________________________________________________75 4.5 NTNDP alignment __________________________________________________________________________ 75 5. Network capability and performance ______________________________________ 79 5.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________ 80 5.2 Existing and committed scheduled, semi-scheduled and transmission connected generation 81 5.3 Sample winter and summer power flows ____________________________________________________ 84 5.4 Transfer capability __________________________________________________________________________ 84 5.4.1 Location of grid sections _____________________________________________________________________84 5.4.2 Determining transfer capability ______________________________________________________________84 5.5 Grid section performance ___________________________________________________________________ 84 5.5.1 Far North Queensland grid section _________________________________________________________89 5.5.2 Central Queensland to North Queensland grid section ___________________________________90 5.5.3 Gladstone grid section _______________________________________________________________________92 5.5.4 Central Queensland to South Queensland grid section ____________________________________94 5.5.5 Surat grid section _____________________________________________________________________________95 5.5.6 South West Queensland grid section _______________________________________________________96 5.5.7 Tarong grid section ___________________________________________________________________________98 5.5.8 Gold Coast grid section ____________________________________________________________________ 100 5.5.9 QNI and Terranora Interconnector _______________________________________________________ 102 5.6 Zone performance _________________________________________________________________________ 103 5.6.1 Far North zone _____________________________________________________________________________ 103 5.6.2 Ross zone ___________________________________________________________________________________ 104 5.6.3 North zone _________________________________________________________________________________ 105 5.6.4 Central West zone _________________________________________________________________________ 106 5.6.5 Gladstone zone _____________________________________________________________________________ 107 5.6.6 Wide Bay zone ______________________________________________________________________________ 109 5.6.7 Surat zone ____________________________________________________________________________________110 5.6.8 Bulli zone _____________________________________________________________________________________ 111 5.6.9 South West zone ____________________________________________________________________________ 112 5.6.10 Moreton zone ________________________________________________________________________________ 114 5.6.11 Gold Coast zone ____________________________________________________________________________ 115 6. Strategic planning _____________________________________________________117 6.1 Background ________________________________________________________________________________ 118 6.2 Possible network options to meet reliability obligations for potential new loads ___________ 119 6.2.1 Bowen Basin coal mining area _______________________________________________________________120 6.2.2 Bowen Industrial Estate _____________________________________________________________________120 6.2.3 Galilee Basin coal mining area _______________________________________________________________121