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Journal of the BLACK SEA/MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT Journal of the BLACK SEA/MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT International Journal a Trimesterly International Publication of Earth, Marine, Environment and Engineering Science Special Issue 2015 ISSN: 1304-9550 Proceedings of MedCLIVAR 2014 Conference Understanding Climate Evolution and Effects on Environment and Societies in the Old World Region METU, ANKARA, TURKEY 23-25 JUNE 2014 Web www.blackmeditjournal.org, www.tudav.org Category Link Pollution, Marine Biology, Physical and Chemical Oceanography, Marine Geology and Geophysics, Maritime Policy, Biological Conservation, Coastal Zone Management Editor Bayram Öztürk Associate Editor Ayaka Amaha Öztürk Technical Editors Riccardo Buccolieri , Arda M. Tonay and Tuğçe Gül Guest Editors Piero Lionello (Italy) Serge Planton (France) Emin Özsoy (Turkey) Andrea Toreti (Italy) Vincenzo Artale (Italy) Murat Türkeş (Turkey) Gabriel Jordà (Spain) Elena Xoplaki (Germany) Levent Kurnaz (Turkey) Giovanni Zanchetta (Italy) Founder Kasım Cemal Güven Printed by: Metin Copy Plus (Tel: 0212 527 61 81) Editorial Address: TUDAV (Turkish Marine Research Foundation), P.O. Box: 10 Beykoz, Istanbul, Turkey. E mail: [email protected] Abstracted in: Chemical Abstracts, ASFA (Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries abstracts), Biosis (Biological Abstracts, Biosis Previews ) Journal of the BLACK SEA/MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT Special Issue 2015 Contents Extreme precipitation events over the Euro-Mediterranean region: projections dependence on daily/sub-daily time scale definition Enrico Scoccimarro, Gabriele Villarini, Silvio Gualdi, Alessio Bellucci, Matteo Zampieri, Marcello Vichi, Antonio Navarra............................................1 Dry events in the Mediterranean basin at 5.2 and 5.6 ka as recorded by stable isotopes in Corchia (Italy) and Soreq (Israel) caves speleothems Giovanni Zanchetta, Mira Bar-Matthews, Eleonora Regattieri, Russell N. Drysdale, Piero Lionello, Avner Ayalon, Ilaria Isola, John C. Hellstrom .................................................................................................5 Trend towards earlier spring runoff in Alps Matteo Zampieri, Enrico Scoccimarro, Silvio Gualdi…………………………11 Stable isotopic record from 160 to 121 ka from Tana Che Urla Cave (Apuan Alps, central Italy) Eleonora Regattieri E., Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, John C. Hellstrom................................................................................................15 Reliability of uncertainty estimates from climate projection ensembles Josep Llasses, Gabriel Jordà, Damià Gomis…………………………………...21 A regional climate model versus a surface energy balance model in estimating the evapotranspiration distribution in the semi-arid Konya Basin, Turkey Mustafa Gökmen, Barış Önol, Ömer Lütfi Şen………………………………..25 Recent mixed layer warming and deepening in the Mediterranean Sea Irene Rivetti, Ferdinando Boero, Simonetta Fraschetti, Enrico Zambianchi, Piero Lionello......................................................................................................29 Impacts of climate change on water demand and yield of Mediterranean crops Mladen Todorovic, Piero Lionello, Luis S. Pereira, Claudia Pizzigalli, Sameh Saadi, Lazar Tanasijevic.........................................................................33 Heat-related impacts of climate change in the East Mediterranean Christos Giannakopoulos, Anna Karali, Vassilis Psiloglou, Giannis Lemesios………………………………………………………………37 Mediterranean model response to enhanced resolution at Gibraltar and tidal forcing Gianmaria Sannino, Adriana Carillo, Giovanna Pisacane, Mario Adani, Massimiliano Palma, Cristina Naranjo, Maria Vittoria Struglia.........................41 Assessment of temperature and precipitation extremes with climate indices by using high resolution climate simulation Fulden Batıbeniz, Barış Önol…………………………………………………..48 Climate trends of sea surface and air temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin Karam Mansour, Ahmed El-Gindy, Fahmy Eid, Mohamed Shaltout………….54 Forty years of geostrophic currents in the Ligurian Sea Simona Aracri, Harry L. Bryden, Jacopo Chiggiato, Elaine McDonagh, Simon A. Josey, Katrin Schroeder, Mireno Borghini.........................................58 Climate projections of maximum water level during storms along the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea for the 2021-2050 period Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, Luigi Marzo, Luca Scarascia................................62 Changes in the contribution of moisture from the Mediterranean Basin to the continental precipitation from 1980 onwards: a Lagrangian analysis Anita Drumond, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Raquel Nieto……….66 Cyclone-precipitation analysis for the island of Crete Vasiliki Iordanidou, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Ioannis K. Tsanis……………...70 Investigating deep-water formation variability in the Aegean Sea and its influence in the adjacent basins deep circulation Sarantis Sofianos, Vassilios Vervatis, Anneta Mantziafou, Michael Ravdas, Sotiria Georgiou………………………………………………………………..74 Late Pleistocene-Holocene climate transition in the western Mediterranean: a view from the stable isotopes of land snail shells André Carlo Colonese, Giovanni Zanchetta, Anthony E. Fallick, Russell Drysdale………………………………………………………………..78 A 600 year-long drought index for central Anatolia Hakan Yiğitbaşıoğlu, Jonathan R. Dean, Warren J. Eastwood, Neil Roberts, Matthew D. Jones, Melanie J. Leng……………………………………………84 Modeling of near future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey and surrounding regions M. Tufan Turp, Tuğba Öztürk, Murat Türkeş, M. Levent Kurnaz…………….89 Assessment of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation over the Mediterranean region via multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP5 models M. Tufan Turp, Tuğba Öztürk, Murat Türkeş, M. Levent Kurnaz…………….93 Changing climate: a great challenge for Turkey Ömer Lütfi Şen, Ozan Mert Göktürk, Deniz Bozkurt………………………….97 The early Holocene Black Sea reconnection with the Mediterranean: implications for benthic ecological changes on the Caucasian shelf Elena Ivanova, Maria Zenina, Fabienne Marret, Ivar Murdmaa, Andrey Chepalyga, Lee Bradley, Maria Zyryanova……………………104 Recent advancements on modelling the exchange flow dynamics through the Turkish Straits System Gianmaria Sannino, Adil Sözer, Emin Özsoy………………………………...110 Effects of the Etesian wind regime on coastal upwelling, floods and forest fires in the seas of the old world Ozan Mert Göktürk, Sinan Çevik, Nathalie Toque, Robinson Hordoir, Hazem Nagy, Emin Özsoy……………………………………………………117 Climate change leads to more frequent but smaller fires in a Mediterranean environment Marco Turco, Maria-Carmen Llasat, Jost von Hardenberg, Antonello Provenzale........................................................................................125 For the figures in color, please check pdf’s on website. (www.blackmeditjournal.org) Submission of manuscript: Manuscript must be sent electronically to [email protected] Subscription: Yearly subscription rate including postal and handling is €50 for individual subscribers and €100 for institutional subscribers. Please contact [email protected] for subscription. Cover photograph: Medicane, 7 November 2014 ©EUMETSAT. All rights reserved: Articles published in this Journal are under copyright protection. Such rights as arise from it are reserved, in particular those of translation, reprinting, public lecture, reproduction of illustrations and tables, radio and television transmission, microfilming or other methods of reproduction, including extract form. Duplicating, reproduction or distribution for commercial purpose of this journal or parts thereof is not permitted. The copying of individual articles or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Turkish Copyright Law. Disclaimer: The Publisher and Editors cannot be held responsible for errors or any consequences arising from the use of information contained in this journal; the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Publisher and Editors. INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL EDITION Proceedings of MedCLIVAR 2014 Conference Understanding Climate Evolution and Effects on Environment and Societies in the Old World Region METU, ANKARA, TURKEY 23-25 JUNE 2014 This special volume of the Journal of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Environment has been made possible by special privilege provided by TÜDAV the Turkish Marine Research Foundation. We, the conference organizers and co-editors, express our deepest felt gratitude to Bayram Öztürk, the chief editor of the journal, for his generous support, and as well to Arda Tonay, for handling the production during the leave, to Antarctica, of the chief editor. In addition to us, conference conveners Vincenzo Artale, Giovanni Zanchetta, Murat Türkeş, Gabriel Jordà, Elena Xoplaki, Levent Kurnaz, Andrea Toreti and Serge Planton shared the responsibility as guest co-editors for groups of papers. We also thank Riccardo Buccolieri of Università del Salento and Tuğçe Gül of TÜDAV, serving as technical editors of this volume, for their careful and creative work. The international MedCLIVAR 2014 Conference “Understanding Climate Evolution and Effects on Environment and Societies in the Old World Region” has been convened at the Cultural and Congress Center of the Middle East Technical University in Ankara during 23-25 June 2014. We thank METU (the Middle East Technical University, Ankara), for providing the venue and services, along with the EGU (European Geosciences Union), AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia
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