Energy Security Fact Pack Q3 2016

@Securing_Energy #SAFEenergyfacts ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents

1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES

SAFE’s Energy Security Fact Pack provides a data-driven overview of the latest trends in U.S. energy security, including domestic and global oil production and consumption, oil market dynamics, energy prices, consumer spending on oil, fuel efficiency, and alternative fuel vehicles.

1 QUARTER SUMMARY Q3 2016: Energy in the Election

• Despite its relevance to U.S. economic productivity and national security, energy has been largely sidelined in the 2016 presidential election. However, expect energy to remain at the fore in the upcoming presidential term. Critical issues include the mid-term review of fuel economy standards, regulation of drilling on federal lands and the potential opening of new territories for offshore drilling, regulation of methane emissions from hydraulic fracturing, pipeline approvals, federal support for energy R&D, regulation of autonomous vehicles, and much more. • ‘Charts of the Quarter’ highlight historical gasoline prices on election day, crude oil production during previous presidential administrations, and other topics: • Despite the recent surge in domestic oil production and lower net imports, the United States is not “energy independent.” The country remains reliant on large volumes of crude oil and refined products whose prices are set in a global market [Pages 4, 5 & 6]. This market is subject to unpredictable—and sometimes anti-competitive—behavior from oil-producing countries that supply it, most notably OPEC members [Page 10]. • Most oil and natural gas resources on federal lands remain off-limits for development by government restriction [Page 7]. • The decline in oil prices has stressed the energy sector. More than 187,000 oil and natural gas jobs have been lost since employment peaked in late 2014 [Page 8]. • Reducing the energy intensity of the U.S. economy through improvements in efficiency and use of alternative fuels in the transportation sector will strengthen resilience to oil price volatility and increase U.S. energy security [Page 9].

2 ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents

1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES

3 3 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER U.S. Crude Oil Production by Presidential Administration

Crude oil production in the United States began in Pennsylvania in 1859. It increased initially through 1970 before beginning more than three decades of gradual decline in the mid-1980s. It increased once again with the onset of the shale oil revolution in 2009.

12 Million Barrels per Day

Eisenhower Nixon Carter Bush 41 Bush 43 Obama 10 Johnson Ford Reagan Clinton

Kennedy 8

0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Preliminary 2016 estimate for U.S. crude oil production. Dotted line shows the length in time of each presidential term. Source: EIA

4 8 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER United States Is Not ‘Energy Independent’

Although U.S. net oil imports have fallen 60% since 2005, the country remains reliant on imported oil. In Q3, net imports rose to 5.0 mbd (+0.2 mbd, or roughly 4%, year-over-year (y-o- y)). The United States became a net exporter of petroleum products in 2011.

14 Million Barrels per Day Monthly Petroleum Trade Deficit (Percent of Total) 70%

12 60%

10 50%

8 40%

6 30%

4 20%

2 10%

0 0%

-2 -10%

Petroleum Products Crude Oil Trade Deficit in Petroleum (RHS) -4 -20% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

5 13 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER Real Gasoline Prices on Election Day

The price of gasoline is an important issue for voters on election day. This year, the price of gasoline—roughly $2.25 per gallon on average nationwide—is substantially lower than it was in 2012, but similar to 2008.

4.00 Dollars per Gallon

Obama Obama Carter Reagan 3.50

3.00 Reagan Reagan Ford Carter Bush 43 Bush 43 2.50 Bush 43 Obama ? Bush 41 Clinton 2.00

Bush 41 Clinton Clinton 1.50

1.00

0.50 Gasoline Price

0.00 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

6 8 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER Most U.S. Oil and Gas Resources Restricted or Inaccessible

Approximately 232 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources are held within federal lands and waters, yet 63% (147 billion barrels) is restricted or inaccessible. The Alaska OCS contains most of these resources (49.8 billion barrels).

Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent Eastern Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic OCS Accessible

Limited Accessibility / Restrictions Pacific OCS Inaccessible

Western Gulf of Mexico

Northern Alaska

Lower-48 Onshore

Alaskan OCS

Central Gulf of Mexico

0102030405060

Source: DOI

7 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER Steep Job Cuts Shake Oil Sector

Oil sector employment has been significantly affected by the decline in global oil prices. As of March 2016, at least 187,000 jobs were lost since peak employment in September 2014. More than 60% of these were in the support subsector (-80,000 employees y-o-y in March 2016).

100 Thousand Employees (Change, Y-o-Y) Dollars per Barrel $150

50 $120

0 $90

-50 $60

-100 $30

Drilling Support Extraction Brent crude oil price (RHS)

-150 $0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Support and Extraction data points for August and September 2016 are preliminary. Drilling data is only available through March 2016. Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Bureau of Labor Statistics and EIA

8 24 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER Oil Intensity Flat While Household Expenditures Fall

U.S. oil intensity remained unchanged in Q3 at 0.43 barrels per $1,000 of GDP. However, household spending on petroleum fuels is down 14% y-o-y, at an annualized level of $268 billion, due to lower oil and petroleum product prices.

0.65 Oil Intensity (Barrels of Oil Consumed per $1,000 of GDP) Billion Dollars (Annualized) 600

Gasoline and Other Motor Fuels (RHS) Fuel Oil and Other Fuels (RHS) 0.60 500 Other (RHS) Oil Intensity

0.55 400

0.50 300

0.45 200

0.40 100

0.35 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA and BEA

9 8 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER No Free Market for Oil

OPEC spare crude oil production capacity fell to just 1.0 million barrels per day (mbd) at the end of Q3. This is equivalent to approximately 1% of global consumption. The majority of OPEC’s spare production capacity is held by Saudi Arabia.

10 Million Barrels per Day Percentage 10%

9 9% OPEC Spare Crude Oil Production Capacity 8 8% Spare Capacity as a Percentage of World Liquids Consumption (RHS) 7 7%

6 6% Spare capacity as a share of world liquid fuels consumption 5 falls below 1% as Saudi Arabia, 5% Iran and others continue to 4 increase production. 4%

3 3%

2 2%

1 1%

0 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source: SAFE analyis based on data from EIA

10 21 ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents

1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES

11 9 U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE U.S. Oil Producers Remain Under Pressure

The U.S. oil rig count increased from 330 to 425 rigs in Q3, a 29% increase quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) after falling to its lowest point since 2009 in Q2. U.S. crude oil production nevertheless continued to decline, falling 0.3 mbd q-o-q in Q3 2016.

1,800 Rig Count Thousand Barrels per Day 12,000

U.S. Crude Oil Production Oil Rig Count (LHS)

1,500 10,000

1,200 8,000

900 6,000

600 4,000

EIA expects output to remain steady before 300 increasing at the end of 2,000 2017.

0 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: EIA and Baker Hughes

12 8 U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE U.S. Oil Production Continues to Fall

U.S. liquids production fell 0.8 mbd y-o-y in Q3. Inclusive of fuel ethanol and natural gas liquids (NGLs), total U.S. liquids production remains approximately 6.0 mbd higher than in 2008, making the U.S. the world’s largest liquids producer.

16 Million Barrels per Day

14 Crude Oil Fuel Ethanol NGLs 12

0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

13 10 U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE Y-o-Y Transportation Fuel Demand Growth Slows

U.S. demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel averaged 14.7 mbd in Q3, declining 1% y-o-y. Total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has increased y-o-y for ten consecutive quarters. In Q3, VMT rose by approximately 2.3% (+206 million miles y-o-y, slightly lower than in recent quarters).

1.2 Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y) Million Miles per Day (Change, Y-o-Y) 400

0.9 300

0.6 200

0.3 100

0.0 0

-0.3 -100

-0.6 -200

-0.9 -300 Transport Fuels VMT (RHS) -1.2 -400 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

14 11 U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE Imports From OPEC Climbing

U.S. crude oil and petroleum product imports reached 10.4 mbd in Q3 (+0.8 mbd y-o-y), the highest in four years. Since 2015, OPEC’s share has steadily risen to 34% of imports (3.6 mbd), with Saudi Arabia the leading source (1.1 mbd).

16 Million Barrels per Day

Saudi Arabia Venezuela Other OPEC 14 Canada Mexico Other Non-OPEC

Source: SAFE analyis based on data from EIA

15 11 ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents

1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES

16 14 GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Global Oil Supply Growth Continues to Slow

Driven by an overall decline in total U.S. liquids supply (-0.7 mbd y-o-y), global oil production fell 0.1 mbd y-o-y in Q3, the first contraction since Q1 2013. The United States accounted for more than 82% of net global supply growth between Q1 2012 and Q1 2016.

5 Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y)

-1

-2 United States Liquids Other non-OPEC Liquids and OPEC non-Crude (NGLs) -3 Saudi Arabia Crude Other OPEC Crude -4 Total -5 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

17 15 GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Global Oil Demand Edges Upward

Global oil demand grew by approximately 0.7 mbd y-o-y in Q3 driven by growth in non-OECD countries (+1.2 mbd y-o-y). Demand in OECD countries fell 0.5 mbd y-o-y in Q3 to 46.4 mbd. Global oil demand has been increasing since 2009, reaching approximately 95.9 mbd in Q3.

5 Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y)

-1

-2

-3 United States Other OECD China -4 Other non-OECD Total -5 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

18 16 GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Non-OPEC Supply Growth Stays Negative

Non-OPEC supply encountered a second consecutive quarter of decline (-1.0 mbd y-o-y). Global oil demand growth has exceeded non-OPEC liquids supply growth for the past six quarters, a reversal versus Q2 2013 to Q1 2015, and a pattern last seen between Q2 2012 and Q1 2013.

5 Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y)

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5 Global Demand Non-OPEC Liquids and OPEC non-Crude (NGLs) -6 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

19 GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Unplanned Crude Oil Outages Remain High

Global unplanned outages fell in Q3 (-0.4 mbd q-o-q) as Canadian production returned following wildfire disruptions in Q2. Among OPEC countries, Iran continues to bring additional oil supplies online. However, political instability in Nigeria and Libya extends disruptions.

4.0 Million Barrels per Day

3.5 Non-OPEC Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iraq 3.0 Libya Nigeria Iran 2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

20 GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Barrels at Risk Map

Total oil supply outages averaged 2.8 mbd in Q3. Attacks on oil infrastructure increased outages in Nigeria’s main oil-producing region, the Niger Delta, while tensions in Venezuela, Libya, and other countries also threaten to further increase outages.

21 20 ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents

1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES

22 22 OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY Light Truck Market Share Hits Record High

New light truck sales soared to 10.7 million units in Q3 2016. Light trucks now account for 61% of new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales, the highest share since the summer of 2005. Total seasonally adjusted LDV sales in Q3 were roughly 50% higher than 2009 levels, at 17.8 million units.

21 Million Units Light Truck Share of Sales 90%

Light Truck Sales Car Sales Share (RHS) 18 80%

15 70%

12 60%

9 50%

6 40%

3 30%

0 20% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from BEA

23 24 OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY Brent and WTI Prices Hold Steady

Prices of domestic petroleum products like gasoline and diesel correlate closely with prevailing global crude oil benchmarks. Oil and product prices held steady after q-o-q increases in H1 2016. September average Brent = $46.57/bbl, WTI = $45.18/bbl, U.S. gasoline = $2.16/gal.

200 Dollars per Barrel

180

160

140

120

100

40 Price of WTI Crude Oil Price of U.S. Gasoline 20 Price of Brent Crude Oil Price of U.S. Diesel 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

24 23 OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY Oil Price Volatility Remains Elevated

Global oil prices have been volatile since they began their initial slide during the summer of 2014. Volatility averaged 55% in H1 2016 versus 15% in H1 2014. Although down from 69% in Q1, 30-day volatility averaged 42% in Q2 and 41% in Q3.

150 Dollars per Barrel Volatility 150%

Monthly Volatility (Annualized) (RHS) Oil Price

120 120%

90 90%

60 60%

30 30%

0 0% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA

25 24 ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents

1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES

26 25 SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES Retail Liquid Fuel Prices Uptick

Liquid fuel prices have experienced substantial volatility since 2000. Despite a more recent uptick, in 2016 they have fallen to multi-year lows. Meanwhile, the prices of compressed natural gas (CNG) and electricity have remained relatively stable during the same time period.

6 Dollars per Gasoline Gallon Equivalent (GGE)

1 Gasoline E85 CNG Propane Diesel B20 B99/B100 Electricity 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Reports

27 26 SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES New Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Ratings Steady

The average fuel economy rating of new light-duty vehicle sales remained steady y-o-y in Q3 at 25.3 miles per gallon, a marked change versus MY 2008 to 2014 when it consistently increased. MY 2016 fuel economy was 25.3 mpg, approximately 19% higher than 2009 levels.

26 Miles per Gallon

25 Model Year Average MY 2014 MY 2015 MY 2016 Monthly Average 24 MY 2013

23 MY 2012

22 MY 2011

MY 2010 21 MY 2009

MY 2008 20 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Average sales-weighted fuel-economy rating of purchased new light-duty vehicles. Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

28 27 SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales Reach New Historic High

Approximately 45,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were sold in Q3 (+63% y-o-y), the best quarter on record. Popular models included Tesla’s Model S and Model X, as well as the Chevrolet Volt. The six best-selling vehicles accounted for approximately 72% of total sales.

50,000 Units Sold

GM Nissan 40,000 Ford Tesla

Toyota BMW 30,000 Others Volkswagen

Fiat

20,000

10,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from HybridCars.com

29 28 SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES More PHEV Models Available, but EVs Majority of Sales

The number of PHEV models available increased from 11 to 16 y-o-y through the end of Q3. However, EVs still account for the majority of plug-in electric vehicle sales (roughly 59% in Q3). More than 500,000 PHEVs and EVs have been sold in the United States.

30 Models Available Cumulative Units Sold 600,000

25 500,000

PHEV EV Cumulative Sales (RHS)

20 400,000

15 300,000

10 200,000

5 100,000

0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Several available models are not included in "Cumulative Sales." Source: SAFE analysis based on data from HybridCars.com

30 28 SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES Alternative Fueling Stations Continue to Climb

The number of alternative fueling stations nationwide increased 89% between Q3 2013 and Q3 2016, a net addition of approximately 24,100 stations. The vast majority of these new additions (94%) were for electric charging.

60 Count at End of Period (Thousands)

Propane LNG Hydrogen CNG Biodiesel E85 Electric 50

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Note: Starting in 2011, electric charge equipment was counted by the plug rather than by the geographic location. This is different than other fuels, which only count the geographic location regardless of how many dispensers or nozzles are on site. Source: Alternative Fuels Data Center

31 31 ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK About, Links, and Contact

ABOUT Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) is a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization committed to reducing America’s dependence on oil and improving U.S. energy security in order to bolster national security and strengthen the economy. SAFE has an action-oriented strategy addressing politics and advocacy, business and technology, and media and public education.

SAFE’s Energy Security Fact Pack, launched in 2014, provides a data-driven overview of the latest trends in U.S. energy security, including domestic and global oil production and consumption, oil market dynamics, energy prices, consumer spending on oil, fuel efficiency, and alternative fuel vehicles.

WEB LINKS SAFE: www.secureenergy.org Electrification Coalition: www.electrificationcoalition.org @Securing_Energy The Fuse: www.energyfuse.org #SAFEenergyfacts

CONTRIBUTORS Paul Ruiz, Policy Analyst Pi Praveen, Policy Fellow Andrea Alie, Policy Intern Zachary Waller, Policy Intern

MEDIA CONTACT For media inquires please contact Leslie Hayward, [email protected] or (202) 461-2364.

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