DOCSLIB.ORG

Energy Security Fact Pack Q3 2016

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Energy Security Fact Pack Q3 2016 Energy Security Fact Pack Q3 2016 @Securing_Energy #SAFEenergyfacts ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents 1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES SAFE’s Energy Security Fact Pack provides a data-driven overview of the latest trends in U.S. energy security, including domestic and global oil production and consumption, oil market dynamics, energy prices, consumer spending on oil, fuel efficiency, and alternative fuel vehicles. 1 QUARTER SUMMARY Q3 2016: Energy in the Election • Despite its relevance to U.S. economic productivity and national security, energy has been largely sidelined in the 2016 presidential election. However, expect energy to remain at the fore in the upcoming presidential term. Critical issues include the mid-term review of fuel economy standards, regulation of drilling on federal lands and the potential opening of new territories for offshore drilling, regulation of methane emissions from hydraulic fracturing, pipeline approvals, federal support for energy R&D, regulation of autonomous vehicles, and much more. • ‘Charts of the Quarter’ highlight historical gasoline prices on election day, crude oil production during previous presidential administrations, and other topics: • Despite the recent surge in domestic oil production and lower net imports, the United States is not “energy independent.” The country remains reliant on large volumes of crude oil and refined products whose prices are set in a global market [Pages 4, 5 & 6]. This market is subject to unpredictable—and sometimes anti-competitive—behavior from oil-producing countries that supply it, most notably OPEC members [Page 10]. • Most oil and natural gas resources on federal lands remain off-limits for development by government restriction [Page 7]. • The decline in oil prices has stressed the energy sector. More than 187,000 oil and natural gas jobs have been lost since employment peaked in late 2014 [Page 8]. • Reducing the energy intensity of the U.S. economy through improvements in efficiency and use of alternative fuels in the transportation sector will strengthen resilience to oil price volatility and increase U.S. energy security [Page 9]. 2 ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents 1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES 3 3 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER U.S. Crude Oil Production by Presidential Administration Crude oil production in the United States began in Pennsylvania in 1859. It increased initially through 1970 before beginning more than three decades of gradual decline in the mid-1980s. It increased once again with the onset of the shale oil revolution in 2009. 12 Million Barrels per Day Eisenhower Nixon Carter Bush 41 Bush 43 Obama 10 Johnson Ford Reagan Clinton Kennedy 8 6 4 2 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Preliminary 2016 estimate for U.S. crude oil production. Dotted line shows the length in time of each presidential term. Source: EIA 4 8 United States Is Not ‘Energy Independent’ IsNot‘Energy States United CHARTS OF THE QUARTER Source:EIA data from on analysis based SAFE y)). The United States became a net exporter of petroleum products in 2011. in 2011. products petroleum of a exporter net became States United The y)). 5.0 to netimports rose oil.In Q3, imported 60 fallen oil net imports have U.S. Although -4 10 14 -2 12 4 8 0 2 6 Million Barrels per Day Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Products Petroleum Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Crude Oil Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 inPetroleumTrade Deficit (RHS) Q4 Q1 (y-o- year-over-year 4%, mbd,orroughly mbd (+0.2 % since 2005, the country remains reliant on reliant remains thecountry 2005, % since Q2 Q3 5 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Monthly Petroleum Trade DeficitTotal) (Percent of Q4 Q1 12 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 13 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER Real Gasoline Prices on Election Day The price of gasoline is an important issue for voters on election day. This year, the price of gasoline—roughly $2.25 per gallon on average nationwide—is substantially lower than it was in 2012, but similar to 2008. 4.00 Dollars per Gallon Obama Obama Carter Reagan 3.50 3.00 Reagan Reagan Ford Carter Bush 43 Bush 43 2.50 Bush 43 Obama ? Bush 41 Clinton 2.00 Bush 41 Clinton Clinton 1.50 1.00 0.50 Gasoline Price 0.00 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 6 8 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER Most U.S. Oil and Gas Resources Restricted or Inaccessible Approximately 232 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources are held within federal lands and waters, yet 63% (147 billion barrels) is restricted or inaccessible. The Alaska OCS contains most of these resources (49.8 billion barrels). Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent Eastern Gulf of Mexico Atlantic OCS Accessible Limited Accessibility / Restrictions Pacific OCS Inaccessible Western Gulf of Mexico Northern Alaska Lower-48 Onshore Alaskan OCS Central Gulf of Mexico 0102030405060 Source: DOI 7 Steep Job Cuts Shake OilSector Shake JobCuts Steep CHARTS OF THE QUARTER -100 -150 Source: SAFESource: data from on analysisbased points Note: and Extractiondatafor August Support and Septembe 100 -50 than 60% of these were in the support subs were these than 60%of lost jobswere 187,000 at least 2016, March si hasbeen employment Oil sector 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 Thousand Employees (Change,Y-o-Y) Q2 Q3 Q4 Drilling Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Support Q1 Bureau of LaborBureau StatisticsandEIA of Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Extraction Q2 gnificantly affected by the decline in global oil prices. As of Asof thedecline in oil global prices. by affected gnificantly Q3 Q4 r 2016 are preliminary. Drilling data is only available through data isonly Drilling are preliminary. 2016 r Q1 Q2 Brent crude oil price (RHS) since peak employment in September 2014. More More 2014. in September peak employment since ector (-80,000 employees y-o-y 2016). in March y-o-y employees (-80,000 ector Q3 Q4 8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 March 2016. Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Barrel per Dollars Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 $150 $120 $90 $60 $30 $0 24 Oil Intensity Flat While Household Expenditures Fall Expenditures Household Flat While Oil Intensity CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 0.40 0.45 due to lower oil and petroleum product prices. prices. product oil and petroleum lower due to fuelsis 14 down spendingonpetroleum household in unchanged Q3 at remained oil intensity U.S. 0.50 0.60 0.55 0.65 0.35 Source: SAFESource: BEA and EIA data from on analysisbased Oil Intensity (Barrels of Oil Consumed Intensity (BarrelsofOilper $1,000 Oil of GDP) Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 (RHS) Other (RHS) Fuels Motor GasolineandOther Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 However, GDP. of per$1,000 barrels 0.43 9 Q3 Q4 billion, $268 of level atanannualized % y-o-y, Q1 Fuel Oil and Other Fuels (RHS) Fuels Other and Oil Fuel Oil Intensity Oil Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 12 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Billion Dollars(Annualized) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 8 CHARTS OF THE QUARTER No Free Market for Oil OPEC spare crude oil production capacity fell to just 1.0 million barrels per day (mbd) at the end of Q3. This is equivalent to approximately 1% of global consumption. The majority of OPEC’s spare production capacity is held by Saudi Arabia. 10 Million Barrels per Day Percentage 10% 9 9% OPEC Spare Crude Oil Production Capacity 8 8% Spare Capacity as a Percentage of World Liquids Consumption (RHS) 7 7% 6 6% Spare capacity as a share of world liquid fuels consumption 5 falls below 1% as Saudi Arabia, 5% Iran and others continue to 4 increase production. 4% 3 3% 2 2% 1 1% 0 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: SAFE analyis based on data from EIA 10 21 ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents 1. QUARTER SUMMARY 2. CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 3. U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE 4. GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS 5. OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY 6. SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES 11 9 U.S. Oil Producers Remain UnderPressure Remain Oil Producers U.S. U 1,800 1,500 1,200 Source:and Baker Hughes EIA mbd 0.3 falling decline, to continued q-o-q in Q3 2016. its lowe to falling after (q-o-q) increased oil rig count U.S. The . 600 900 300 S . 0 OIL SUPPLY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Rig Count Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 , Q3 DEMAND Q4 Q1 Production Oil Crude U.S. Q2 Q3 , Q4 AND TRADE Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 nevertheless crude oil production in Q2. U.S. 2009 pointsince st Q2 quarter-over-quarter increase a 29% rigs in Q3, 425 to 330 from Q3 Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oil RigCount (LHS) Q3 12 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • WTI Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate
    WTI Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate Alexander Filitz Minh Khoa Nguyen Outline • Crude Oil • Value Chain • Politics • Market • Demand • Facts & Figures • Discussion Crude Oil • Flammable liquid consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights and other liquid organic compounds • Is recovered mostly through oil drilling • In its strictest sense, petroleum includes only crude oil, but in common usage it includes all liquid, gaseous, and solid hydrocarbons. • An oil well produces predominantly crude oil, with some natural gas dissolved in it Classification • By the geographic location it is produced in • Its API gravity (an oil industry measure of density) • Its sulfur content • Some of the common reference crudes are: • West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a very high-quality, sweet, light oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma for North American oil. • Brent Blend, comprising 15 oils from fields in the North Sea. • Dubai-Oman, used as benchmark for Middle East sour crude oil flowing to the Asia-Pacific region • The OPEC Reference Basket, a weighted average of oil blends from various OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries West Texas Intermediate • Also known as Texas light sweet, used as a benchmark in oil pricing • API gravity of around 39.6 and specific gravity of 0.827 and 0.24% sulfur • WTI is refined mostly in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions in the U.S • It is the underlying commodity of New York Mercantile Exchange's (NYMEX) oil futures contracts • Often referenced in news reports
    [Show full text]
  • Crude Oil Prices Also Affect a Wide Range of Other Non-Petroleum Forecasts Produced by STIFS
    Short-Term Energy Outlook Crude Oil Price Forecasts Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Department of Energy www.eia.gov Washington, DC 20585 Last Updated 2020 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook Crude Oil Price Forecasts i 1. Introduction In the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA’s forecasts for monthly average Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices are calculated outside of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The crude oil price forecast is one of the main determinants of the forecast for many of the petroleum price, consumption, and production variables within STIFS. Crude oil prices also affect a wide range of other non-petroleum forecasts produced by STIFS. EIA first formulates a forecast for Brent crude oil spot prices and then forecasts WTI spot prices by creating a forecast for the spot price spread between Brent and WTI. EIA considers three main inputs to determine its Brent price forecast: • A pooling model that provides a single Brent price series that is an average of five separate models • A linear regression using independent variables from the STEO forecast • Analyst judgment based on an understanding of global oil market dynamics and EIA’s forecast for supply and demand balances In sections three through five below, we discuss each of these inputs separately.
    [Show full text]
  • Price Forecast December 31, 2018 Resource Evaluation & Advisory This Page Has Been Intentionally Left Blank
    Price forecast December 31, 2018 Resource Evaluation & Advisory This page has been intentionally left blank. 2 Forecast commentary 4 Alberta upstream oil and gas investment and royalties 8 Canadian economic outlook 10 Canadian domestic price forecast 12 International price forecast 14 Global trends 15 Canadian domestic price tables 19 International price tables 22 Price philosophy 24 Glossary 25 3 Price Forecast December 31, 2018 | Forecast commentary Forecast commentary “I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination.” — Jimmy Dean Volatility continues to be the theme of the reached highs of US$35/bbl. Storage oil and gas sector, with prices fluctuating stockpile volumes in Alberta rose to substantially throughout 2018. International approximately 35 MMbbl due to increased prices started to soften in October as the production from oil sands projects and industry expressed concern about increased temporarily decreased demand due to supply and minimal demand growth. WTI refinery maintenance. Major disruptions prices fell as domestic production volumes to Canadian crude oil exports occurred reached record levels and transport issues in Q4 2018 because of lower-than-usual persisted, primarily in the Permian basin. refinery utilization rates in the US Midwest, Overseas, Brent crude pricing continued where almost 70 percent of Canadian crude to outpace North American pricing, exported to the United States is processed. averaging approximately US$9/bbl higher Refinery utilization rates decreased to than WTI prices in the last quarter of 2018. 73 percent at the end of October from Brent prices decreased substantially in traditional rates of over 90 percent, leaving November, however, as a result of increased Canadian crude oil with nowhere to go.
    [Show full text]
  • The US Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE U.S. SHALE OIL BOOM, THE OIL EXPORT BAN, AND THE ECONOMY: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS Nida Çakir Melek Michael Plante Mine K. Yücel Working Paper 23818 http://www.nber.org/papers/w23818 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 September 2017 For helpful comments and suggestions we thank Nathan Balke, Michael Sposi, Kei-Mu Yi as well as participants of the USAEE 2015 and 2016 conferences, the 2015 NBER Meeting on Hydrocarbon Infrastructure, the 2015 Southern Economic Association Meeting, the 2016 IAEE conference, the 2016 Federal Reserve System Energy Meeting, the 2017 Georgetown Center for Economic Research Biennial Conference, the 2017 IAAE conference in Japan, the 2017 NBER Transporting Hydrocarbons and Economics of Energy Markets Meetings, and the seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This paper is part of the NBER Hydrocarbon Infrastructure Research Initiative supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Navi Dhaliwal, Ruiyang Hu and Elena Ojeda provided excellent research assistance. This paper was previously circulated under the title “A macroeconomic analysis of lifting the U.S. crude oil export ban.” The views expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.
    [Show full text]
  • Oil: a Statistical Analysis of West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude
    Financial Oil: A Statistical Markets & Analysis of West Texas Instruments Professor Intermediate and Brent Goldstein Crude 12/9/13 Adam Jarolimek | Joseph Lorusso | Thomas Walsh Philip Yudin “The authors of this paper hereby give permission to Professor Michael Goldstein to distribute this paper by hard copy, to put it on reserve at Horn Library at Babson College, or to post a PDF version of this paper on the internet.” “I pledge my honor that I have neither received nor provided any unauthorized assistance during the completion of this work.” Phil Yudin Joseph Lorusso Thomas Walsh Adam Jarolimek _____________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Overview 4 Determinants of Price 5 United States Petroleum Reserves 5 NYMEX Natural Gas Price 6 Treasury Note 6 LIBOR 6 S&P500 7 USD/GBP Exchange Rate 7 OPEC Oil Production 8 Analysis of Spot Prices of WTI and BRENT 8 Hypotheses 8 Hypotheses Testing Methods 9 R-Squared 11 P-Value of Coefficients 11 Predictions Using Regression Models 12 Conclusion 15 References 16 Regression Data 17 2 Executive Summary: Crude oil is one of the most fundamental and influential commodities in modern society. At home and abroad, it is the underlying fuel for the vast majority of anything that requires power, and for this reason, its geopolitical importance is unparalleled. With advances in refining and fracking techniques, and the ever-increasing usage of natural gas in conjunction with it, crude oil will continue to be the primary driver of the energy market for the foreseeable future. By examining the effects of various industrial, economic and financial factors related to the industry, this paper will deliver an implicit as well as statistical analysis of price movement within two of the biggest oil extraction pricing benchmarks, the Brent Crude and the West Texas Intermediate.
    [Show full text]
  • July Petroleum Watch
    July 2019 PETROLEUM WATCH CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION INSIDE PETROLEUM NEWS Crude Oil Prices (page 2) PRICES REFINING NEWS Crude Oil Production & Storage • Crude Oil Prices: On June 28, Brent • Shell Martinez: On June 13, the refinery (page 3) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) shut down the flexicoker unit because crude prices closed at $67.52 and of mechanical issues. On June 17, the Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices $58.20, respectively. The Brent crude refinery restarted the flexicoker unit. (page 4) price is $9.92 lower than one year Spot Markets Spreads ago, and the WTI price is $15.93 (page 6) lower than one year ago (page 2). Gross Margins • California Retail Gasoline Prices: On (page 10) June 24, the price was $3.61, a decrease of $0.27 since the end of May. Through June, the California price averaged $1.00 higher than the national average (page 4). • California Retail Diesel Prices: On June 24, the price was $3.97, a decrease of $0.13 since the end of May. Through June, the California price averaged $0.95 higher than the national average (page 5). Product of the Energy Assessments Division’s Supply Analysis Office. 1 CRUDE OIL PRICES Figure 1: Daily Crude Oil Prices $120 110 Brent West Texas Intermediate $110 CA Estimated Refinery Acquisition Cost 105 Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index $100 $90 100 $80 95 $70 (1973 100) = $60 90 $50 Dollars per Barrel (Nominal)Dollars per 85 Index Dollar U.S. Weighted Trade $40 $30 80 Jul-18 Jul-19 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Jun-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Nov-18 Dec-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 May-18 May-19 Source: U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Energy Slideshow
    ENERGY SLIDESHOW Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Updated: September 9, 2021 ENERGY PRICES Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy Brent &WTI WTI & Crude Brent Oil Crude Oil Dollars per barrel Brent (Sep 3 = $73.02) WTI (Sep 3 = $69.15) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 9/3/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration. HenryHenry HubHub Natural & Marcellus Gas Natural Gas Dollars per million Henry Hub (Sep 3 = $4.49) Marcellus (Sep 3 = $3.57) British thermal units 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 9/3/21. Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of Dominion South, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal. RetailRegular Gasoline Gasoline & Diesel& Highway Diesel Retail price per gallon PADD Gasoline Diesel 1 $3.07 $3.33 1A $3.09 $3.29 1B $3.22 $3.48 1C $2.96 $3.24 2 $3.05 $3.28 3 $2.83 $3.10 4 $3.65 $3.65 5 $3.93 $4.02 U.S. $3.18 $3.37 NOTES: Prices are for 9/9/21. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.
    [Show full text]
  • Lutz Kilian, "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers
    The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers April 4, 2016 Lutz Kilian University of Michigan CEPR Abstract: This article contributes to the debate about the impact of the U.S. fracking boom on U.S. oil imports, on Arab oil exports, and on the global price of crude oil. First, I investigate the extent to which this oil boom has caused Arab oil exports to the United States to decline since late 2008. Second, I examine to what extent increased U.S. exports of refined products made from domestically produced crude oil have caused Arab oil exports to the rest of the world to decline. Third, the article quantifies by how much increased U.S. tight oil production has lowered the global price of oil. Using a novel econometric methodology, it is shown that in mid-2014, for example, the Brent price of crude oil was lower by $10 than it would have been in the absence of the fracking boom. I find no evidence that fracking was a major cause of the $64 decline in the Brent price of oil from July 2014 to January 2015, however. Fourth, I provide evidence that the decline in Saudi foreign exchange reserves between mid-2014 and August 2015 would have been reduced by 27 percent in the absence of the fracking boom. Finally, I discuss the policy implications of my findings for Saudi Arabia and for other Arab oil producers. JEL Code: Q43, Q33, F14 Key Words: Arab oil producers; Saudi Arabia; shale oil; tight oil; oil price; oil imports; oil exports; refined product exports; oil revenue; foreign exchange reserves; oil supply shock.
    [Show full text]
  • International Energy Module
    February 2021 International Energy Module The International Energy Module (IEM) of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) simulates the interaction between U.S. and global petroleum markets. The IEM uses assumptions of economic growth and expectations of future U.S. and world petroleum liquids production and consumption to estimate the effects of changes in the U.S. liquid fuels market on the international petroleum market. For each year of the projection period, the IEM computes Brent crude oil prices, and it provides a supply curve of world crude-like liquids and supply curves for each foreign crude oil type considered. The IEM also provides, for each year of the projection period, endogenous assumptions for petroleum products for U.S. import and export. Changes in the Brent oil price are computed in response to • The difference between projected U.S. total crude-like liquids production and the expected U.S. total crude-like liquids production at the current oil price (estimated using the current oil price and the exogenous U.S. total crude-like liquids supply curve for each year) • The difference between projected U.S. total petroleum liquids consumption and the expected U.S. total petroleum liquids consumption at the current oil price (estimated using the current oil price and the exogenous U.S. total crude-like liquids demand curve) Key Assumptions Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) considers a number of factors related to the uncertainty of future oil prices, including • Changes in worldwide demand for petroleum products • Investment and production decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) • Non-OPEC petroleum liquid fuels supply • Supplies of other liquid fuels • The International Maritime Organization (IMO) convention that limits sulfur in fuel oil to be used on ships since 2020 In the AEO2021 Reference case, U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Economic and National Security Impacts Under a Hydraulic Fracturing Ban
    Economic and National Security Impacts under a Hydraulic Fracturing Ban Report to the President January 2021 United States Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 Message from the Secretary As directed by the President in an October 31, 2020 Presidential Memoranda titled: “Memorandum on Protecting Jobs, Economic Opportunities, and National Security for All Americans,” the Department of Energy is submitting the following report on the economic and national security outcomes of a domestic ban on hydraulic fracturing technologies. This report addresses Section 4 (Domestic and Economic Impacts of Undermining Hydraulic Fracturing and Other Technologies) and Section 5 (National Security Impacts of Undermining Hydraulic Fracturing and Other Technologies) of the Presidential Memoranda. I am proud to present this report to the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, as it is technologies like hydraulic fracturing that unleashed America’s natural resources and made the United States the world’s largest natural gas and oil producer, while also creating high-paying jobs and delivering meaningful consumer savings. As this report concludes, a ban on hydraulic fracturing — a practice that has been used for over 50 years in the United States and other countries — would result in the loss of millions of jobs, price spikes at the gasoline pump and higher electricity costs for all Americans. Such a ban would eliminate the United States’ status as the top oil and gas producing country and return us to being a net importer of oil and gas by 2025. It would weaken America’s geopolitical standing and negatively impact our national security.
    [Show full text]
  • Wti Crude Oil Futures Contract
    Wti Crude Oil Futures Contract Stu often presanctifies studiously when unpainted Gav interposed betweentimes and chirrs her zip-fastener. Barefoot and comethervogue Stafford Urbanus caracol visualize, her self-destruction but Louie high-handedly approximates misreport while Newton her rooks. hacks some Scott hostilely. Oversexed and Please distribute your search terms and vulnerable again. If you can oil crude oil industry is one step ahead of experience on? Initialize the function window. Market participants that hold WTI futures contracts through expiration must make many take physical delivery of WTI crude type in Cushing. Medan både råolie og geopolitik förser även världens globala valutareserv. Should I sell my cryptocurrencies? Understand common costs of investing, and what guest could check at Schwab. Their theft was rejected by both court judges, but on Friday Supreme Court judges disagreed and said something could proceed. The marks NYMEX and COMEX are market data concerning trading on NYMEX or. Department had to engage in. Cyberattacks and clients can see higher can oil wti crude futures contract, retreating from public soon become full compliance with these market price changes depending on? Positions in your oil futures will be punished as storage disappears. This forward markets have been trying to wti price exposure to oil wti crude futures contract deep into naked calls have long been wiped out long premium subscriber? Trading is also a short term a few things you never release your individual investors without messing with schwab corporation provides accessibility for? How can afford to do crude oil futures pricing and asian markets and announce moratorium and assessed prices are under normal physical delivery point out.
    [Show full text]
  • CEEP-BIT WORKING PAPER SERIES Impacts of OPEC's Political Risk On
    CEEP-BIT WORKING PAPER SERIES Impacts of OPEC’s political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models Hao Chen Hua Liao Bao-Jun Tang Yi-Ming Wei Working Paper 96 http://ceep.bit.edu.cn/english/publications/wp/index.htm Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of Technology No.5 Zhongguancun South Street, Haidian District Beijing 100081 October 2016 This paper can be cited as: Chen H, Liao H, Tang B-J, Wei Y-M. 2016. Impacts of OPEC’s political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models. CEEP-BIT Working Paper. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05150600), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (71521002,71322306 and 71573013). The views expressed in this paper are solely authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the supporting agencies and Beijing Institute of Technology. The authors alone are responsible for any remaining deficiencies. © 2016 by Hao Chen, Hua Liao, Bao-Jun Tang, and Yi-Ming Wei. All rights reserved. The Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology (CEEP-BIT), was established in 2009. CEEP-BIT conducts researches on energy economics, climate policy and environmental management to provide scientific basis for public and private decisions in strategy planning and management. CEEP-BIT serves as the platform for the international exchange in the area of energy and environmental policy. Currently, CEEP-BIT Ranks 47, top 3% institutions in the field of Energy Economics at IDEAS（http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.ene.htm), and Ranks 52, top 3% institutions in the field of Environmental Economics at IDEAS (http://ideas.repec.org/ top/top.env.html).
    [Show full text]