Bubbles in Crude Oil and Commodity Energy Index: New Evidence
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energies Article Bubbles in Crude Oil and Commodity Energy Index: New Evidence Christos Floros * and Georgios Galyfianakis Department of Accounting and Finance, Laboratory of Accounting and Financial Management (LAFIM), Hellenic Mediterranean University, 71004 Heraklion, Greece; galifi[email protected] * Correspondence: cfl[email protected] Received: 31 October 2020; Accepted: 11 December 2020; Published: 16 December 2020 Abstract: This paper considers a long dataset of both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices and the Commodity (fuel) energy index (CEI) to identify possible bubbles. Using the Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) test, we compare results from WTI and Brent with CEI. We prove that the CEI follows Brent crude oil (they provide similar bubble periods) and that Brent is recognized as a crude oil benchmark. Financial managers should incorporate it into their analysis and forecasts. The findings are strongly recommended to energy policymakers and investors. Keywords: bubbles; energy prices; SADF; crude oil; brent; WTI; CEI 1. Introduction Are there bubbles in the energy market? This question is still important to be answered due to the fact that energy prices fluctuate over time for many reasons (economic, geopolitical, etc.). Studying the behavior of energy markets is highly important due to their effect on equity markets and the global economy. Energy prices rose steadily from the late 1990s until the financial crisis in 2007 [1]. The most energy commodity product is oil, which is a significant indicator of economic growth. Ahmad et al. [2] report that crude oil is a vital input for driving global economic growth, and oil price shocks can jeopardize this growth prospect. According to Zhang and Yao [3], “oil prices have experienced drastic fluctuations. Specifically, there exists a collective upsurge of oil prices in the sub-sample periods from 2001 to mid-2008 and from 2009 to 2011 while a sharp drop in the sub-sample period from mid-2014 to 2015. Especially from November 2001 to July 2008, several types of oil prices experienced a collective upsurge. Specifically, the monthly spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, Brent crude oil, diesel, and gasoline have increased 579%, 606%, 509%, and 517% during the period, respectively”. The fluctuation of the energy price affects industry development and plays an important role in terms of national investment structures, economic performance, and inflation rates [4]. Further, Su et al. [5] argue that the fluctuation of prices has brought huge shocks to economic development. They reported that fluctuations were mainly due to wars in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) or appreciation/depreciation in the United States dollar (USD). Lammerding et al. [6] reported that the price movement explanations were: (1) Oil supply shocks, (2) oil demand shocks driven by global economic activity, and (3) oil-specific demand shocks. They argue “that price changes due to financial shocks may lead to speculative bubbles” [6]. Recently, Pavlidis et al. [7] reported the role of speculation as a key driver of price fluctuations. It is obvious that energy prices behave like many financial assets; hence, noise trading, speculation, and asset bubbles appear in energy markets [8]. Liu and Lee [4] reported that the fluctuation of energy prices indicates that prices can systematically deviate from their fundamental values. They argued that the volatility of energy prices has a significant impact on macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index and economic growth. Energies 2020, 13, 6648; doi:10.3390/en13246648 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies Energies 2020, 13, 6648 2 of 11 It is essential to examine energy prices and detect possible bubbles. Bubbles are generally defined as high-volume trading of a given category of assets at prices that are far above their intrinsic values [9]. According to Kraussl et al. [9], there are two constraints for the detection of bubbles: (1) high volumes must be traded; (2) prices must be above their fundamental values. The analysis of energy price bubbles is suitable for understanding the energy price sensitivity, see Liu and Lee [4]. Identifying bubbles in energy prices is essential for appropriate policies to be formulated to manage the consequences when the bubbles burst, see Li et al. [10]; they also reported that price bubbles of the energy market may have an impact on the economy. Several studies examined the behavior of energy prices and reported that there exist bubble components in the prices due to several reasons [11,12]. These studies employed new bubble tests developed by Phillips et al. [13], and Phillips et al. [14] that can detect bubbles by determining whether prices become explosive. It is crucial to examine the existence of bubbles in energy prices due to the fluctuation of energy prices experienced in the last three decades. Recently, Su et al. [5] found that oil prices were shown to have multiple explosive bubbles; further, Fantazzini [15] reported five episodes of oil prices: 1985–1986, 1990–1991, 1997–1998, 2001, 2008, and a negative bubble in 2014–2015. Baumeister and Kilian [16] reported that the oil price decline in the last months of 2014 could not be explained using supply and demand; therefore, Fantazzini [15] suggested that there was a negative financial bubble that decreased oil prices beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. Accordingly, “the price slide in 1985–1986 has some similarities with the fall in 2014/2015, because it followed a period of strong expansion of oil supply from non-OPEC countries and Saudi-Arabia decided to increase production and to stop defending prices”, see Fantazzini [15]. Between 2001 and mid-2008, the nominal spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose from 20 US $/bbl to 147 US $/bbl, but then collapsed to 30 US $/bbl in late 2008, and finally increased to 100 US $/bbl in late 2011 [6]. Further, the Brent and WTI prices of crude oil fell by 60% between June 2014 and January 2015 [15]. This shows that energy prices fluctuate over time, and hence, possible bubbles can be detected. The contribution of our paper is that we consider a long dataset (1987–2020) of both Brent crude oil price and WTI crude oil price but also the Commodity (fuel) energy index (CEI). Most studies use data from Brent and WTI crude oil prices; we also consider CEI for comparison reasons. CEI includes Crude oil (petroleum), Natural Gas, and Coal Price Indices. In addition, we have a clear picture of energy price bubbles as our dataset considers all periods (booms and crashes) for a long period. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical study that tests for energy bubbles and compares results from WTI and Brent with CEI. We prove that the CEI follows Brent crude oil in the way that they provide similar bubble periods and that Brent is recognized as a crude oil benchmark. The results of this research can lead to useful energy policy conclusions; investors and financial analysts should incorporate it into their analysis and strategy. The structure of the work is as follows: The next section (Section2) presents the literature on the subject of the research. The following (Section3) is a description of the market and data used, while Section4 describes the research methodology. Section5 presents the empirical results and concludes the paper. 2. Literature Review Numerous studies underline the importance of crude oil for the global economy. It becomes clear that oil is a commodity that requires a synthetic analysis that cannot be understood unless one looks through a multi-dimensional field of view. The relationship between oil prices and economic activity has been investigated by a number of researchers [17–19]. Apart from the general conclusion that oil prices influence the economy, a part of the literature has been shaping around the concept that the relationship between oil prices and the economy changed after the 1980s [20]. Sornette et al. [11] analyzed oil prices before and after the July 2008 peak, concluding that geopolitical events have participated in raising the level Energies 2020, 13, 6648 3 of 11 of uncertainty and speculation, leading to oil prices increasingly decoupled from the fundamental valuation (the hallmark of a bubble). Specifically, they distinguished a period before and after the peak of 3 July 2008, supporting the hypothesis that oil price run-up, when expressed in any of the major currencies, has been amplified by speculative behavior. A pre-crash analysis illustrates a distinct change in the oil price dynamics in USD occurring between the last quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, beyond which we can observe a net acceleration. A post-crash analysis does not support the causal impact of geopolitical uncertainty on oil prices. Many authors, motivated by repeated price spikes and crashes after 1995, investigate whether the heavily financialized market of crude oil has been driven by speculative bubbles [21]. Financialization means integration between commodity markets and financial markets in terms of correlation, the convergence of risk-adjusted returns, and spillover volatility between markets [22,23]. Recent papers show evidence of how financialization has contributed to commodities and equities increased cross-market correlations during market downturns (see [22] for more details). The financialization of the commodity market has led to an unprecedented increase in commodity investment [23]. Although there are no satisfactory definitions for bubbles accepted by finance communities, Brunnermeier [24] defines bubbles as an economic phenomenon with dramatic asset price increases, followed by a collapse. In the same line, the term “bubble” refers to a situation in which excessive expectations of future price increases cause prices to be temporarily elevated without justification from fundamentals [11]. Research on the effect of higher oil prices and their contribution to the global economic recession has been influenced by Hamilton’s [25] connection of oil price shocks with the recession in the US.