Marine Ecology Progress Series Vol

OPENPEN ACCESSCCESS THEME SECTION Seabirds and climate change Editors: William J. Sydeman, Alexander Kitaysky Marine Ecology Progress Series Vol. 454, pages 105–307 CONTENTS Dorresteijn I, Kitaysky AS, Barger C, Benowitz-Fredericks ZM, Byrd GV, Shultz M, Sydeman WJ, Thompson SA, Kitaysky A Young R INTRODUCTION: Seabirds and climate change: Climate affects food availability to planktivorous roadmap for the future …………………….…………… 107–117 least auklets Aethia pusilla through physical Burthe S, Daunt F, Butler A, Elston DA, processes in the southeastern Bering Sea …...……… 207–220 Frederiksen M, Johns D, Newell M, Thackeray SJ, Wanless S Satterthwaite WH, Kitaysky AS, Mangel M Phenological trends and trophic mismatch across Linking climate variability, productivity and stress multiple levels of a North Sea pelagic food web …… 119–133 to demography in a long-lived seabird ……………… 221–235 Lynch HJ, Fagan WF, Naveen R, Trivelpiece SG, Trivelpiece WZ Differential advancement of breeding phenology in Smith PA, Gaston AJ response to climate may alter staggered breeding Environmental variation and the demography and among sympatric pygoscelid penguins ……………… 135–145 diet of thick-billed murres ………...…………………… 237–249 Surman CA, Nicholson LW, Santora JA Effects of climate variability on breeding phenology Hass T, Hyman J, Semmens BX and performance of tropical seabirds in the eastern Climate change, heightened hurricane activity, and Indian Ocean ……………………..……………………… 147–157 extinction risk for an endangered tropical seabird, the black-capped petrel Pterodroma hasitata ……… 251–261 Thompson SA, Sydeman WJ, Santora JA, Morgan KH, Crawford W, Burrows MT Phenology of pelagic seabird abundance relative to Sidhu LA, Dann P, Chambers L, Catchpole EA marine climate change in the Alaska Gyre…….…… 159–170 Seasonal ocean temperature and the survival of first-year little penguins Eudyptula minor in Provencher JF, Gaston AJ, O’Hara PD, Gilchrist HG south-eastern Australia ………....……………………… 263–272 Seabird diet indicates changing Arctic marine communities in eastern Canada…….………………… 171–182 Watanuki Y, Ito M Sandvik H, Erikstad KE, Sæther BE Climatic effects on breeding seabirds of the northern Climate affects seabird population dynamics both Japan Sea ………....……………………………………… 183–196 via reproduction and adult survival …..……………… 273–284 Grémillet D, Welcker J, Karnovsky NJ, Walkusz W, Hall ME, Fort J, Brown ZW, Speakman JR, Barbraud C, Rolland V, Jenouvrier S, Nevoux M, Harding AMA Delord K, Weimerskirch H Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate Effects of climate change and fisheries bycatch on change …………..………………………………………… 197–206 Southern Ocean seabirds: a review …..……………… 285–307 Vol. 454: 107–117, 2012 MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES Published May 21 doi: 10.3354/meps09806 Mar Ecol Prog Ser OPEN ACCESS INTRODUCTION Seabirds and climate change: roadmap for the future William J. Sydeman1,*, Sarah Ann Thompson1, Alexander Kitaysky2 1Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, Petaluma, California 94952, USA 2Institute of Arctic Biology, Department of Biology and Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA ABSTRACT: Based in part on a symposium held at the first World Seabird Conference in Septem- ber, 2010 in Victoria, BC, Canada, we present a Theme Section (TS) on the topic of seabirds and climate change. We introduce this TS with a meta-analysis of key attributes of the current seabird−climate literature, based on 108 publications representing almost 3000 seabird− climate associations (mostly correlations) published up to 2011. Using the papers in this TS and our meta- analysis, a brief roadmap for the future of seabird−climate change research is presented. Seabird studies have contributed substantially to the literature on marine climate effects. To improve our understanding of climate change effects on seabirds at the global scale, however, additional low- latitude, mechanistic, and ‘end-to-end’ modeling studies, including integration of climatic, oceanographic, food web, and population dynamics models, should be conducted. This approach will enhance our understanding of the relationship between climate and population dynamics, and facilitate seabird conservation in a changing world. KEY WORDS: Conference proceedings · Climate effects · Marine birds · Meta-analysis Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher INTRODUCTION improve our understanding of the effects of climate change on various marine organisms has become It is now widely accepted that climate variability urgent to facilitate effective species and ecosystem and change have strong, persistent effects on marine conservation as well as protection of the various ecosystems (Stenseth et al. 2002, Harley et al. 2006, ecosystem services that marine environments pro- Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno 2010). The Intergovern- vide for society (Richardson & Poloczanska 2008, mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects Doney et al. 2012). mean increases in air temperature of 1.1°C by the Seabirds exist at the ecotone of the atmosphere and 2020s, 1.8°C by the 2040s, and 3.0°C by the 2080s as the ocean, use both marine and terrestrial habitats, a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations and therefore may be particularly sensitive to multi- (Solomon et al. 2007). Much of this heat will be ple and potentially synergistic climate variations. It absorbed by the world’s oceans. Already, as a result has been suggested that seabirds are reliable indica- of past changes in air temperature, heat content of tors of ecosystem change associated with climatic as the ocean has increased dramatically (Belkin 2009, well as other anthropogenic and natural factors Levitus et al. 2009, Burrows et al. 2011). Given ocean (Cairns 1987, MEPS 2007, 2009, reviewed by Durant warming, coupled with other predicted physical et al. 2009). Seabirds are the most threatened marine changes including sea level rise and declines in sea taxonomic group in the world, with ~25% of species ice, effects on marine life are expected to intensify in currently listed as threatened or considered of spe- the coming century. Consequently, the need to cial concern (IUCN 2011, Croxall et al. 2012). In addi- *Email: [email protected] © Inter-Research 2012 · www.int-res.com 108 Mar Ecol Prog Ser 454: 107–117, 2012 tion to climate change, threats to seabird populations Pacific Seabird Group (PSG) in cooperation with include habitat loss and degradation due to invasive almost 2 dozen other organizations and societies species, coastal development, physiological stressors from across the globe (www.worldseabirdconfer- due to food shortages and pollution, and mortality ence.com/main.cfm?cid=1813). The papers in this TS due to by-catch in certain types of fishing (i.e. Lewi- investigated how climate variability and change son et al. 2012). In relation to climatic factors, effects might affect phenology (timing of breeding, migra- on seabirds appear to be mostly indirect, operating tion), breeding or roosting habitat, range, demo- through changes in local to regional food webs and graphic traits (breeding success, survival, recruit- the pelagic habitat. Seabirds mainly rely on micro- ment), at-sea distribution, nutritional stress, food nekton (forage fish and squids) and mesozooplank- habits (diet composition), and community structure of ton (copepods and krill) for successful foraging. seabirds, covering 10 ecosystems from both the Owing to their lower trophic positioning, micronek- northern and southern hemispheres (Table 1). These ton and particularly mesozooplankton are likely variables have been identified as key response types more sensitive to climatic variations than upper from previous ecological investigations (Sydeman et trophic level species such as seabirds (Richardson al. 2009, Weimerskirch et al. 2012). From the onset, 2008). However, changes in the distribution and we solicited studies that provided quantitative links abundance of prey would have direct effects on between trends in the physical environment vari- seabirds through changes in bottom-up food web ables hypothesized to be affected by climate change dynamics (Ware & Thomson 2005) and predator− (i.e. water temperature and stratification, winds and prey interactions. At breeding colonies, seabirds currents, sea level, ocean acidification, and pH), and could be affected by warming of air temperature and trends in seabird parameters (see Brown et al. 2011). in some cases changes in the timing or intensity of Most papers in this TS met this goal. precipitation, which may inhibit access to nesting colonies or, in severe cases, cause mortality due to overheating and physiological stress. How different ROADMAP TO THE FUTURE seabird species will respond to coupled climate and ecosystem change is undoubtedly related to many Meta-analysis factors, including life history characteristics, food habits, range, and abundance (e.g. Furness & Tasker To place the papers of this TS in perspective, we 2000). Furthermore, some seabirds may fare well in a conducted a literature review and provide an initial warming ocean, whereas others may become locally, meta-analysis (cf. Parmesan & Yohe 2003, Rosen- regionally, or perhaps even globally extinct (e.g. zweig et al. 2008) of data gleaned from 108 seabird− Kitaysky & Golubova 2000, Jenouvrier et al. 2009, climate studies published in primary journals (see the Wolf et al. 2010, Lewison et al. 2012). Fortunately, Supplement at www.int-res.com/articles/ suppl/m454 many

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